Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Greenhouse gas levels keep rising at accelerating speed

Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) was 421.59 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Lao, Hawaii, on February 14, 2022, a level unprecedented in millions of years. 

Carbon dioxide levels typically reach their annual maximum in May, so even higher levels can be expected over the next few months.


Carbon dioxide levels are even higher at high latitudes north. The image below shows that carbon dioxide levels are approaching 430 ppm at Barrow, Alaska.

Methane

NOAA's monthly global mean reading for October 2021 for methane (CH₄) is 1907.2 parts per billion (ppb), which is 17.1 ppb higher than the reading for October 2020. By comparison, NOAA's annual global mean methane increase of 15.74 ppb for 2020 was the highest on record at the time and the increase for 2021 looks to be even higher.
Keep in mind that NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements; more methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes.

Furthermore, keep in mind that the above 1907.2 ppb reading is for October 2021; it now is February 2022.  The image below shows that recent methane levels are approaching 1940 ppb at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Similarly as carbon dioxide, methane levels are even higher at high latitudes north. Furthermore, the rise is accelerating strongly. At Barrow, Alaska, recent methane levels are approaching 2040 ppb. 


Nitrous oxide

The image below shows the annual increase in globally-averaged nitrous oxide (N₂O).

The top part of the combination image below shows IPCC scenarios for nitrous oxide, as discussed in an earlier post, with the bottom part showing recent NOAA observations (through to October 2022).



Clouds feedback

As discussed in an earlier post, just two greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, could abruptly cause the joint CO₂e to cross the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point, triggering a further 8°C global temperature rise, due to the clouds feedback.

Again, that could be the result of the climate forcing just of carbon dioxide and methane, without even adding further forcing such as by nitrous oxide. Meanwhile, as discussed, humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, and a 5°C rise will likely end most life on Earth.


Conclusion

The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.



Links

• NOAA - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• NOAA - Barrow, Alaska
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Terrifying Arctic greenhouse gas levels continue
• NOAA - Nitrous oxide trends
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_n2o

• NOAA - Globally averaged marine surface monthly mean nitrous oxide data

• Is the IPCC creating false perceptions, again?

• Accelerating Methane Rise

• Terrifying Arctic greenhouse gas levels continue
• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

Posted by at
Labels: , , ,

Wednesday, February 9, 2022

Accelerating loss of global snow and ice cover


Ocean heat is at record levels. As a result, global sea ice extent was only 16.23 million km² on February 9, 2022, the third lowest extent on record. What makes this even more worrying is that we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña.


Antarctic sea ice at lowest extent on record since start satellite measurements

Ocean heat is a huge threat for Antarctica at the moment. The image below shows that Antarctic sea ice extent was only 2.091 million km² on February 16, 2022, the lowest on record since the start of satellite measurements.


Ocean heat is reducing the sea ice around Antarctica and is getting underneath floating sea ice. 

The Thwaites Glacier, which is on a retrograde slope, is especially vulnerable to collapse. 

The Thwaites Glacier contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by 65 cm (25.59 inches) if it were to completely collapse.

The animation on the right, created with images from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the retreat of the Antarctic snow and ice cover from January 5 to February 18, 2021. 

The animation underneath, by navy.mil, shows sea ice thickness over 30 days up to February 17, 2022 (with 8 days of forecasts added).

Another danger of a rapid loss of the snow and ice cover on Antarctica is release of methane. Jemma Wadham warned about this in a 2012 study, as discussed at the post methane hydrates. More recently, Jemma Wadham said: “We are sleepwalking into a catastrophe for humanity.”

The Thwaites Glacier is often called the Doomsday Glacier because if it collapses it would lead to vast sea level rise, and scientists believe it is likely to fail within a few years, says Cliff Seruntine (the Naturalist) in the video below. 


A recent study concludes that mountain glaciers may hold less ice than previously thought. Their disappearance means less water for drinking and agriculture, and faster temperature rises due to albedo loss. While the study found that the Himalayas contain more water than thought, another recent study, Mt. Everest’s highest glacier is a sentinel for accelerating ice loss, describes how human-induced climate change has a huge impact on the highest reaches of the planet.

The outlook for the Arctic is most threatening, as the post methane hydrates also concluded back in 2013, as described in numerous post here at Arctic-news and as discussed in the video below by Jim Massa.


A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon


Above image indicates that the difference between the top of El Niño and the bottom of La Niña could be more than half a degree Celsius.

As said, we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña, which suppresses temperatures. As the temperature keeps rising, ever more frequent strong El Niño events are likely to occur, as discussed in an earlier post. 

A 2019 study analyzes how tipping the ENSO into a permanent El Niño can trigger state transitions in global terrestrial ecosystems.

Currently, the temperature rise is additionally suppressed by low sunspots. Within a few years time, sunspots can be expected to reach the peak of their current cycle and observed sunspots are looking stronger than predicted. 

In the image below on the right, adapted from NOAA, the solar cycle is represented as the number of sunspots (top) and F10.7cm radio flux (bottom). 

In a recent communication, James Hansen repeats that, as reductions take place in the sulfate aerosols that are currently co-emitted by traffic, transport and industry, this is causing the current temperature rise to accelerate and could cause further rapid global warming, referred to in a 2021 presentation as a termination shock.

Furthermore, in addition to a huge temperature rise resulting from sulfate aerosols falling away, there could be a further rise in temperature as a result of releases of other aerosols with a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place.

In summary, while the temperatures are accelerating, we'll soon be moving into the next El Niño, with sunspots moving toward a peak, with sulfate aerosols causing a termination shock and with other aerosols further driving up the temperature rise. 

Stop the deception!

In a giant scheme of deception, the temperature rise is all too often presented with images of people playing on the beach on a 'warm' day, as if 'global warming' was making life more 'comfortable'. 

Forest fires are called 'wildfires', biomass burning and associated deforestation is referred to as 'renewable biofuel', fracking-induced earthquakes are called 'natural' disasters and methane eruptions are called seeps and bubbles of 'natural' gas from 'natural' sources such as wetlands. 

This gives the false impression that this was somehow 'natural' as if human activities had nothing to do with it, and as if owning beach-front property was becoming ever more attractive.


Let's stop this deception! In reality, human-caused emissions have a huge short-term impact on temperature and their combination with genuinely natural variability such as El Niño and sunspots can act as a catalyst, causing numerous feedbacks to kick in with ever greater ferocity. 

This can result in collapse of global sea ice and permafrost, resulting in albedo loss and eruption of huge quantities of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, further driving up the temperature rise abruptly, as described at the extinction page. Further feedbacks are also described at the feedbacks page. 

Conclusion

The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.


Links

• Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Niña Conditions - by Lijing Cheng et al. 
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00376-022-1461-3

• Ocean heat is at record levels, with major consequences - by Kevin Trenberth

• Arctic Data archive System - Vishop extent

• NSIDC: Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph

• IPCC: Marine Ice Sheet Instability

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo

• Antarctica CICE ice thickness

• Antarctica’s ‘doomsday’ glacier: how its collapse could trigger global floods and swallow islands 
https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-doomsday-glacier-how-its-collapse-could-trigger-global-floods-and-swallow-islands-173940

• Methane hydrates (2013)

• Potential methane reservoirs beneath Antarctica - by Jemma Wadham et al. (2012) 
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11374

• A new frontier in climate change science: connections between ice sheets, carbon and food webs (2021) 

• Ice velocity and thickness of the world’s glaciers - by Romain Millan et al. 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00885-z

• Mountain glaciers may hold less ice than previously thought – here’s what that means for 2 billion downstream water users and sea level rise 
https://theconversation.com/mountain-glaciers-may-hold-less-ice-than-previously-thought-heres-what-that-means-for-2-billion-downstream-water-users-and-sea-level-rise-176514

• Mt. Everest’s highest glacier is a sentinel for accelerating ice loss - by Mariusz Potocki et al. 

• Human-induced climate change impacts the highest reaches of the planet — Mount Everest
• Ocean Heat Content Update 1 - 2022 - Science Talk with Jim Massa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pctkg_LDqcU

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño 
• Human Extinction by 2022? 

• Tipping the ENSO into a permanent El Niño can trigger state transitions in global terrestrial ecosystems - by Mateo Duque-Villegas et al. (2019) 
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/10/631/2019

• James Hansen - The New Horse Race

• Climate Impact of Decreasing Atmospheric Sulphate Aerosols and the Risk of a Termination Shock - by Leon Simons, James Hansen and Yann duFournet (2021) 

• NOAA - Solar Cycle Progression

• Aerosols

• Feedbacks

• Extinction




Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Tuesday, February 8, 2022

Accelerating Methane Rise

NOAA's October 2021 global mean methane reading is 1907.2 parts per billion (ppb), which is 17.1 ppb higher than the reading for October 2020. By comparison, NOAA's annual global mean methane increase of 15.74 ppb for 2020 was at the time the highest on record.


Keep in mind that this 1907.2 ppb reading is for October 2021; it now is February 2022. Furthermore, NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements; more methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes.

The  image below shows that the MetOp-B satellite recorded a peak methane level of 2904 ppb at 469 mb on February 4, 2022 am. 


Methane levels are very high over the Arctic. The image below shows high recent monthly average methane levels at Barrow, Alaska. 


Carbon dioxide levels over the Arctic are also very high. The image below shows high recent daily average carbon dioxide levels at Barrow, Alaska. 


The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.


Links

• NOAA - globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data
https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_mm_gl.txt

• NOAA - globally averaged marine surface annual mean methane growth rates
https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_gr_gl.txt

• NOAA - Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) Sounding Products (MetOp)
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi

• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases, Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW

• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/graph.html

• Human Extinction by 2022?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html

• Terrifying Arctic methane levels
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/terrifying-arctic-methane-levels.html

• Terrifying Arctic methane levels continue
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/terrifying-arctic-greenhouse-gas-levels-continue.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html




Posted by at
Labels: , , ,

Monday, February 7, 2022

Wake

by Malcolm Light

~ Wake represents the last chance for humanity to “Wake Up” to the extreme global extinction nightmare facing us; a Wake is also a Celtic “Death Watch” on our Planet Earth’s near term demise. ~


Above image shows the exponential increase of the Mean Global Atmospheric Temperature Anomaly in Degrees Celsius (Light 2021, Carana 2022, 2021; Carter, 2022) and the relative increase in Volume of Heat Transport and Temperature of the Gulf Stream–Svalbard Current into the Arctic Ocean (Smedsrud et al., 2021; Carter 2022). 

[ from earlier post ]
The Volume of Gulf Stream Heat Transport has increased by 30% in the last 100 years (Smedsrud et al., 2021) and is estimated to be some 33.6% larger by 2030.

The Gulf Stream Temperature–Heat Transport Volume Trend intersects the Mean Global Atmospheric Temperature Anomaly Trend at 2030 with an equal and combined Arctic Atmospheric and Ocean Temperature of 11.7°C.

By this time the sub-sea Arctic shelf edge methane hydrates will be exponentially destabilizing, releasing vast volumes of methane gas into the Arctic Ocean, and this will convert the sea into a ‘Methane Bubble Foam’, vastly increasing the rate of evaporation of Arctic Ocean water.

By the Northern Summer of 2035, the Arctic Ocean and Mean Global Atmospheric Temperature Anomaly will together have reached 107.5°C and will pass 117.4°C by the Northern Summer of 2036.

After 2035, the loss of the Planet's ocean water will occur at an exponential rate, as the Ocean and Mean Global Atmospheric Temperature Anomalies rise in unison and convert Earth into a high temperature, uninhabitable planet like Venus.

[ from earlier post ]

It is completely self-evident that if the Gulf Stream heat transport to the Arctic Ocean is not immediately stopped, it will cause a Catastrophic Arctic Atmospheric Global Extinction event starting in 2 to 5 years culminating around 2030 (8 Years hence) (Light 2021; Carana 2022, 2021; Carter 2022).

[ Created by Sam Carana with nullschool.net ]
Because of the very short time now left to the start of the Catastrophic Global Extinction Event, the Gulf Stream heat transport to the Arctic Ocean must be stopped.

The animation on the right shows that, on February 2, 2022, sea surface temperatures off the coast of North America were as much as 11.2°C higher than 1981-2011 (at green circle).

Present data indicates that the Mean Global Atmospheric Temperature Anomaly will have reached 5°C in the Summer of 2024 when massive Global extinction will begin in earnest. Therefore the latest date for effective action is the summer of 2023.


References

• Terrifying Arctic Methane Levels - by Sam Carana (2022)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/terrifying-arctic-methane-levels.html

• Terrifying Arctic greenhouse gas levels continue - by Sam Carana (2022)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/terrifying-arctic-greenhouse-gas-levels-continue.html

• Will COP26 in Glasgow deliver? - by Sam Carana (2021)

• Climate change: Satellites map huge methane plumes from oil and gas (BBC, 2022)

• Global assessment of oil and gas methane ultra-emitters - by Thomas Lauvaux et al. (2022)

• Nordic Seas Heat Loss, Atlantic Inflow, and Arctic Sea Ice Cover Over the Last Century - by Lars Smedsrud et al. (2021)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020RG000725

• The Gulf Stream has increased steadily over the last century - by University of Bergen (News Release associated with above study, 2022)
https://www.uib.no/en/climateenergy/150992/gulf-stream-has-increased-steadily-over-last-century

• Carter, Peter; 2022.
The 2021 Temperature Increase (1.1°C to 1.2°C) makes the Past Seven Years the Warmest on Record. Note Rapid Surface Heating of North America from Copernicus.

• Carter, Peter; 11 January 2022.
Arctic Sea Surface Temperature is Increasing at a Rate Far Above the Very Worst Case. 

• Carter, Peter; 5 January 2022. 
Through 2021 Global Warming Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases have the Planet Headed to Catastrophic Heating. 

• Hampton, Steve 2021. 
Modern climate change is 10x faster than historic global warming mass extinction events

• Light M.P.R., 2021. 
Planetary Extinction due to Arctic Atmospheric Methane Veil

• Light M.P.R., 2015. 
Planetary Genocide - Ecocide between 2023 and 2031
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/01/planetary-genocide-ecocide-between-2023-and-2031.html

• Light M.P.R., Hensel H. and Carana S., 2014. 
Arctic Atmospheric Methane Global Warming Veil

• Light M.P.R., 2013. 
Act now on methane (extract)
Act now on methane (full version)
https://sites.google.com/site/runawayglobalwarming/the-non-disclosed-extreme-arctic-methane-threat

• Light M.P.R., 2012. 
Global extinction within one human lifetime as a result of a spreading atmospheric methane heatwave and surface firestorm 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/global-extinction-within-one-human.html

• Light M.P.R., 2012. Edited by Sam Carana. 
How much time is there left to act, before methane hydrate releases will lead to human extinction?

• Light M.P.R., 2011. Edited by Sam Carana. 
Use of beamed interfering radio frequency transmissions to decompose Arctic atmospheric methane clouds. 

• Light M.P.R., 2011. 
Stratospheric methane global warming veil

• Light M.P.R. and Solana C., 2002. 
Arctic Methane Hydrates: A Potential Greenhouse Gas Hazard

• Light M.P.R. and Solana C., 2002. 
Arctic methane hydrates - Mapping a potential greenhouse gas hazard. Abstract and Poster, EGS, Nice. In: Light, M.P.R. and Carana, S., 2011. Methane linked to Seismic Activity in the Arctic

• Light M.P.R. and Posey, H.H., 1992. 
Chapter 10 Diagenesis and its Relation to Mineralization and Hydrocarbon Reservoir Development: Gulf Coast and North sea Basins

• Light M.P.R., Posey, H.H., Kyle, J.R., and Price P.E., 1987. 
Integrated hydrothermal model for the Texas Gulf Coast Basin; origins of geopressured brines and lead-zinc, uranium, hydrocarbon, and cap rock deposits

• Light M.P.R., Posey, H.H., Kyle, J.R., and Price P.E., 1987. 
Model for the origins of geopressured brines, hydrocarbons, cap rocks and metallic mineral deposits: Gulf Coast, U.S.A.. In: Lerch, Ian, and O'Brien, J.J., Dynamical geology of salt and related structures: Orlando, Florida, Academic Press, pp. 787-830

• Light M.P.R., 1985. 
Structure, facies, continuity and internal properties of the Frio "A" sandstone, N.E. Hitchcock Field, Galveston County, Texas. In: Dorfman, M.H. and Morton, R.A. eds., Geopressured-Geothermal Energy, Proceedings of the Sixth U.S. Gulf Coast Geopressured-Geothermal Energy Conference: Pergamon, p. 229 - 238.






Posted by at
Labels: , , , , ,
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)