Showing posts with label extinction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label extinction. Show all posts

Sunday, August 6, 2023

Betrayal: The threat to life on Earth

by Andrew Glikson

It has been overlooked during Garma festival that, under current policies, global warming would render aboriginal lands in central and northern Australia unliveable and the top-end a nuclear target…

In his classic book The Fate of the Earth speaking for humanity Jonathan Schell describes the horror of a full-scale nuclear holocaust where human beings and animals would die if twenty thousand megatons of bombs, more than a million times the Hiroshima bomb, explode.

The consequences of a global nuclear exchange belong to the unthinkable. Nuclear weapons are the most destructive, inhumane and indiscriminate weapons ever created. Both on the scale of the devastation they cause and uniquely persistent genetically damaging radioactive fallout, they are unlike any other weapons. A single nuclear bomb detonated over a large city could kill millions of people. The use of tens or hundreds of nuclear bombs would disrupt the atmosphere world-wide, causing widespread famine.

[ Figure 1. Extreme geophysical, meteorological, hydrological and climatological events during 1980 -2012 ]

From the 1970s the full implications of climate change were only beginning to be realized, through a growing string of cyclones, fires, droughts and floods increasing in frequency and intensity above the recent historical record (Figure 1). At that time few could forecast the climate trajectory like NASA’s chief climate scientist (Hansen et al., 2012), who stated:

“Burning all the fossil fuels would create a different planet than the one that humanity knows. The paleoclimate record and ongoing climate change make it clear that the climate system would be pushed beyond tipping points, setting in motion irreversible changes, including ice sheet disintegration with a continually adjusting shoreline, extermination of a substantial fraction of species on the planet, and increasingly devastating regional climate extremes” and “warming according to the IPCC Business As Usual’ (BAU) scenario would lead to a disastrous multi-meter sea level rise on the century timescale” and “We’ve reached a point where we have a crisis, an emergency, but people don’t know that” ...

[ Figure 2. credit: NOAA, click on images to enlarge ]

According to Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Germany’s chief climate scientist “Climate change is now reaching the end-game, where very soon humanity must choose between taking unprecedented action or accepting that it has been left too late and bear the consequences” …

[ Figure 3. The five mass extinctions in the Earth’s history. ]

Within a century or less the Earth’s mean temperature has risen from the mean levels of the Holocene (the last 11,700 years) and the Pleistocene (11,700 years ago to 2.58 million years ago), to levels of the Pliocene (2.58 million years ago to 5.333 million years ago) to the Miocene (5.33 to 23.03 million years ago), 3 - 4°C warmer than the Holocene, at warming rates. This is faster than any identified in the Cenozoic (66 million years until the present) geological record (Glikson, 2022-23). It is difficult to find in the geological record an event increasing the global greenhouse level at a rate as extreme as the current global heating (Figure 4).

[ Figure 4. Past mean temperatures (200 AD to 2000 AD), current warming and future temperature projections (Steffen, 2012) ]

A nuclear war would represent the ultimate outcome of tribalism, nationalism, racism and war, the human propensity for mutual and self-destruction. There was a time when kings and generals would fall on their sword when they were defeated, or when their faith in their gods collapsed. Nowadays oblivious or non-caring world powers continue to proliferate nuclear weapons on hair trigger alert, mine coal and pump oil and gas, starting a greenhouse chain reaction. Leaders, so-called, opportunistically betray the defence of their own people and the future of their children. The voices of anti-nuclear and climate scientists have become subdued, ignored or betrayed. There may not be too many historians to document the 20-21ˢᵗ centuries crimes against humanity and against nature.

An explanation of the collapse of human society, dragging multiple species down with it, arises from Fermi’s Paradox, where the combination of technological achievements and an inherent killer instinct of some leads to collapse.


Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080


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Thursday, July 6, 2023

Dire situation gets more dire every day

Conditions are dire


The world temperature was at a record high 17.23°C or 63.01°F on July 6, 2023 (black). The maximum temperature in 2022 (orange) and in 2016 (grey) was 16.92°C or 62.46°F (on July 24, 2022, and on August 13+14, 2016). The year 2016 is important, since there was a strong El Niño in 2016 and we're now again in an El Niño. 

As the image below adds, the 17.23°C temperature recorded on July 6, 2023, is a daily value, but if indicative for July 2023, the closest value for CMIP5 RCP8.5 would be 17.255°C, projected to occur in July 2035 (13 years away from now).

[ The international consortium Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
defines scenarios for use in climate projections. Its CMIP5 scenario (an average of
39 models of near-surface temperature and precipitation, and mean sea level pressure)
can be used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). ]

Why is the temperature rising so fast? 

The image below mentions a number of contributors, with charts added from an earlier post. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

1. Emissions are high and greenhouse gas levels keep rising, increasing Earth's Energy Imbalance. 

2. We did come out of a La Niña that has for years been suppressing temperatures and we are now in an El Niño. A 2023 study led by Tao Lian predicts the current El Niño to be strong. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as discussed in an earlier post. Temperature anomalies can be very high during an El Niño. The image below shows that February 2016 on land was 3.28°C (5.904°F) hotter than 1880-1896, and 3.68°C (6.624°F) hotter compared to February 1880 on land. Note that 1880-1896 is not pre-industrial, the rise will be even larger when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.
The above image, from an earlier post, adds a poignant punchline: Looking at global averages over long periods is a diversion, peak temperature rise is the killer!

[ click on images to enlarge ]
3. The June 2023 number of sunspots is more than twice as high as predicted, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post and adapted from NOAA. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from May 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C, a recent analysis found.

4. The January 2022 submarine volcano eruption near Tonga did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post and also at facebook. Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, this further contributes to speeding up the temperature rise. A 2023 study calculates that the eruption will have a warming effect of 0.12 Watts/m² over the next few years.

5. There are further things that contribute to the temperature rise, such as reductions of Sahara dust and of sulfur aerosols co-emitted with fossil fuel combustion that previously masked the temperature rise. 

The above points apply to the global temperature rise. The North Atlantic sea surface temperature is rising even stronger than the global rise, due to the following points:
  • The narrowing temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics is slowing down the flow of air from the Tropics to the Arctic, deforming the Jet Stream, and that can strongly prolong and amplify extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere, and result in stronger heating up of the North Atlantic.
  • This is also slowing down AMOC, causing more hot water to accumulate in the North Atlantic and to reach the Arctic Ocean, resulting in strong melting of sea ice from below and thus strong thinning.
  • Additionally, as temperatures rise, increased stratification further speeds up the sea surface temperature rise.
  • As the North Atlantic Ocean heats up and as cold air from the Arctic can more deeply descend over North America (due to Jet Stream deformation), the temperature difference between land and oceans widens, especially during the Northern Winter, and this can result in storms abruptly pushing strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, pushing ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean, with stronger evaporation occurring over the North Atlantic and with stronger precipitation (rain, snow, etc.) occurring further down the path of the Gulf Stream. This stronger evaporation cools the surface of the North Atlantic.
  • This cooling, together with cooling from increased meltwater, also results in formation of a cold freshwater lid on top of the North Atlantic, also because freshwater is less dense than saltwater.
  • This lid on top of the North Atlantic enables more hot water to flow underneath this lid into the Arctic Ocean, with the danger that more heat will reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and destabilize hydrates, resulting in eruption of huge amounts of methane.
  • This sea surface cooling has until now covered up the full extent of the rise in ocean heat in the North Atlantic, but - as illustrated by the image below - the continued rise in ocean heat now is overwhelming this cooling.
The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 23.3°C on June 21, 2023 (on the black line), 0.9°C higher than the 22.4°C on June 21, 2022 (on the orange line). A record high of 24.9°C was reached on September 4, 2022, even while La Niña at the time was suppressing the temperature, whereas there now is an El Niño, so the outlook is grim.

[ from earlier post ]
Feedbacks and developments that make the outlook even more threatening

Globally, methane rose to 1924.99 ppb in December 2022. The image below has a polynomial trend added that is based on April 2018 to December 2022 NOAA global methane data and is pointing at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027. The Clouds Tipping Point, at 1200 ppm CO₂e, could be crossed and this on its own could result in a further rise of 8°C. This tipping point could be crossed as early as in 2027 due to forcing caused by the rise in methane alone. When further forcing is taken into account, this could happen even earlier than in 2027.
[ from earlier post ]
[ click on images to enlarge ]
On February 22, 2023, Antarctic sea ice area was only 1,050,708 km² in size, as discussed in an earlier post. Since that time, Antarctic sea ice has been growing at a much slower pace than in previous years. On July 4, 2023, Antarctic sea ice area was 9,385,739 km² in size, and sea ice has actually been falling in size recently, as illustrated by the Nico Sun image on the right. Less sea ice means that sunlight previously reflected back into space by the sea ice is now instead getting absorbed by the Southern Ocean, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop that results in further sea ice loss, in turn further speeding up the temperature rise and making the weather ever more extreme.

[ Two out of numerous feedbacks ]
This dire situation spells bad news regarding the temperature rise to come, the more so since, on top of these dire conditions, there are feedbacks and further developments that make the outlook even more threatening. 

A huge temperature rise could be triggered abruptly, due to a multitude of feedbacks and further developments that could strongly deteriorate the situation even further, such as by causing more water vapor to get added to the atmosphere, as discussed at Moistening Atmosphere and Extreme Heat Stress.

[ see the Extinction page ]
Changes in aerosols are discussed in earlier posts such as this post and this post. The upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so strong that much traffic, transport and industrial activity will grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. These are mainly sulfates, but burning of fossil fuel and biomass also emits iron that currently helps photosynthesis of phytoplankton in oceans, as a 2022 study points out, and less iron means less drawdown of carbon dioxide. 

Without these emissions, the temperature is projected to rise strongly, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.

The image on the right, from the extinction page, includes a potential rise of 1.9°C by 2026 as the sulfate cooling effect falls away and an additional rise of 0.6°C due to an increase in warming aerosols by 2026, as discussed in this post and earlier posts.

The image on the right indicates that the rise from pre-industrial to 2020 could be as much as 2.29°C. Earth's energy imbalance has grown since 2020, so the rise up to now may be even higher. 

Climate Tipping Points and further Events and Developments

The temperature could also be pushed up further due to reductions in the carbon sink on land. An earlier post mentions a study that found that the Amazon rainforest is no longer a sink, but has become a source, contributing to warming the planet instead; another study found that soil bacteria release CO₂ that was previously thought to remain trapped by iron; another study found that forest soil carbon does not increase with higher CO₂ levels; another study found that forests' long-term capacity to store carbon is dropping in regions with extreme annual fires; another earlier post discussed the Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point, coined in a study finding that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis, which under business-as-usual emissions would nearly halve the land sink strength by as early as 2040.

This earlier post also discusses how CO₂ and heat taken up by oceans can be reduced. A 2021 study on oceans finds that, with increased stratification, heat from climate warming less effectively penetrates into the deep ocean, which contributes to further surface warming, while it also reduces the capability of the ocean to store carbon, exacerbating global surface warming. A 2022 study finds that ocean uptake of CO₂ from the atmosphere decreases as the Meridional Overturning Circulation slows down. An earlier analysis warns about growth of a layer of fresh water at the surface of the North Atlantic resulting in more ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean and the atmosphere over the Arctic, while a 2023 study finds that growth of a layer of fresh water decreases its alkalinity and thus its ability to take up CO₂, a feedback referred to as the Ocean Surface Tipping Point.

[ from Blue Ocean Event 2022? - click on images to enlarge ]
The above image depicts only one sequence of events, or one scenario out of many. Things may eventuate in different orders and occur simultaneously, i.e. instead of one domino tipping over the next one sequentially, many events may occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. Further events and developments could be added to the list, such as ocean stratification and stronger storms that can push large amounts of warm salty water into the Arctic Ocean.

While loss of Arctic sea ice and loss of Permafrost in Siberia and North America are often regarded as tipping points, Antarctic sea ice loss, and loss of the snow and ice cover on Greenland, on Antarctica and on mountaintops such as the Tibetan Plateau could also be seen as tipping points. Another five tipping points are: 

Extinction

Altogether, the rise from pre-industrial to 2026 could be more than 18.44°C, while humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.


This should act as a warning that near-term human extinction could occur soon. In the video below, Guy McPherson discusses how fast humans could go extinct. 


Conclusion

The dire situation is getting more dire every day, calling for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan with an update at Transforming Society.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer - World Daily 2-meter Air Temperature (90-90°N, 0-360°E)
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily

• Climate Reanalyzer - CMIP5 RCP8.5 projection
https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/monthly_tseries

• NOAA - Solar cycle sunspot number progression
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

• A Strong 2023/24 El Niño is Staged by Tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content Buildup - by Tao Lian et al. (2023)
https://spj.science.org/doi/10.34133/olar.0011

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://www.nsidc.org

• NSIDC - Chartic interactive sea ice graph
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Cryosphere Computing - by Nico Sun
https://cryospherecomputing.com

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Climate Reanalyzer - sea ice based on NSIDC index V3
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice

• NOAA - greenhouse gases - trends CH4 (methane)
• NOAA - Solar cycle progression

• NASA gistemp Monthly Mean Global Surface Temperature - Land Only

• NOAA - Annual Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomalies 

• Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C - by Stuart Jenkins et al. (2023)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01568-2



• Moistening Atmosphere
• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more

• Latent Heat

• Blue Ocean Event

• Methane keeps rising

• A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Human Extinction by 2025?

• 2020: Hottest Year On Record

• The Importance of Methane in Climate Change

• The underappreciated role of anthropogenic sources in atmospheric soluble iron flux to the Southern Ocean - by Mingxu Liu et al. (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00250-w

• How close are we to the temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere? - by Katharyn Duffy et al. (2021)

• Overshoot or Omnicide? 

• Upper Ocean Temperatures Hit Record High in 2020 - by Lijing Cheng et al. (2021)

• Reduced CO₂ uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation - by Yi Liu et al. (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01555-7

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
• Long-Term Slowdown of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Alkalinity Dynamics - by Megumi Chikamoto et al. (2023) 
• Ocean Surface Tipping Point Could Accelerate Climate Change

• When Will We Die?

• Edge of Extinction: Extinct - HOW FAST? - video by Guy McPherson

• Edge of Extinction: Destination Destruction - video by Guy McPherson


• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html






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Tuesday, May 9, 2023

Nuremberg trials for imperiling all and bringing on mass extinction of species

by Andrew Glikson

But while “leaders” fail to protect the people from global warming and nuclear war, they have succeeded splendidly in hiding the truth through the denial of climate change, accounting tricks and claims of reduction in domestic emissions, while in fact opening new coal mines, oil wells and fracked coal seams, exporting hydrocarbons through the entire global atmosphere.

As mean global temperatures, storms and sea level rise keep rising toward uninhabitable conditions in many parts of the world and thousands of nuclear missiles are aimed to be triggered by accident or design is it too early or already too late for Nuremberg-type trials for those responsible for the ongoing greenhouse gas saturation of the atmosphere and the creation of a doomsday machine?

The Nuremberg principles created by the International Law Commission of the United Nations in connection with the Nuremberg Trials of Nazi leaders following World War II, apply critically once again for those planning a nuclear war on the rapidly warming Earth.
  • Principle I. Persons who commit a crime under international law are liable to punishment.
  • Principle II. Internal law do not relieve the person who committed the act from responsibility under international law.
  • Principle III. A person who commits a crime under international law, as a Head of State or responsible government official, is not relieved from responsibility under international law.
  • Principle IV. An act under the order of Government or of a superior does not relieve a person from responsibility under international law. It is not an acceptable excuse to say 'I was just following my superior's orders'.
  • Principle V. Any person charged with a crime under international law has the right to a fair trial on the facts and law.
  • Principle VI. The crimes hereinafter set out are punishable as crimes under international law: Planning, preparation, initiation or waging of a war of aggression or a war in violation of international treaties, agreements or assurances; Leaders, organizers, instigators and accomplices participating in the formulation or execution of a common plan or conspiracy to commit any of the foregoing crimes are responsible for all acts performed by any persons in execution of such plan.
  • Principle VII. Complicity in the commission of a crime against peace, a war crime, or a crime against humanity as set forth in Principle VI is a crime under international law.
Since World war II every one of these principles has been and continues to be violated by the superpowers of the world, in particular principle VI, where “Leaders, organizers, instigators and accomplices participating in the formulation or execution of a common plan or conspiracy to commit any of the foregoing crimes are responsible for all acts performed by any persons in execution of such plan”.

None of these infringements falls within the category of ordinary human offences, rather their consequences for the Earth’s life support system are orders of magnitude larger than even their perpetrators could imagine, namely a major mass extinction of species analogous to the end-Ordovician (86% species extinguished), Permian-Triassic (96 Species extinguished) and Cretaceous-Tertiary (76% species extinguished) (Figure 1A) consequent on carbon emission rates some 9–10 times higher than those during onset of the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

Figure 1. A. The five great mass extinctions in the history of Earth;
             B. IPCC climate projections to 2100 (after Will Steffen).

Spikes in extinction rates marked as the five major extinction events and sharp temperature rises include:
  1. End Ordovician (444 million years ago)
  2. Late Devonian (360 my)
  3. End Permian (250 my)
  4. End Triassic (200 my)
  5. End Cretaceous (65 my) – the event that killed off the dinosaurs.
  6. Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum
  7. The current rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels at a rate faster than any of the previous mass extinction (Figure 1B) of species, including the K-T event and the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Peak (PETM), the latter roughly 55 million years ago lasting approximately 100,000 years.
  8. The termination of the last glacial maximum (17.5–10 kyr ago) when the CO₂ rise rate was ~0.010 ppm CO₂/year and temperature ~0.00046°C/year as compared to the extreme modern rates during 1750-2020 of 0.0074°C/year and 0.04 ppm CO₂/year.
The coating of the Earth biosphere with the toxic residues of buried hydrocarbon and their processed plastic products in the form of carbon particles, oil spills, methane and carbon gases, microplastics and related rise in temperatures are threatening the fate of species, including human civilization.

Taking no heed of this warning, the species Homo “sapiens” has perfected a virtual doomsday machine under which it is living on borrowed time. Believing it is a ‘chosen species’ sapiens has rarely asked itself what has it been chosen for?

Leaders, so-called, forcing the atmosphere into a >4 degrees Celsius-high radioactive hell, including corporate chiefs, top executives, billionaires and their conscious-free political mouthpieces, members of parliaments, ministers and presidents, will be recorded in history as first in line to hell, driving the innocent hapless masses into oblivion.

But if “leaders” failed to protect the people from global warming and nuclear war, they succeeded splendidly in hiding the truth, starting with climate change denial, proceeding with accounting tricks and with claims of domestic emission reduction, while at the same time opening new coal mines, oil wells and coal seam gas fracking, exporting the hydrocarbons throughout the atmosphere.

These people know who they are, even if they do not fully understand the monstrous consequences of what they are doing or avoiding doing!

But if Nuremberg Trials are not conducted now, then when?


Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

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Saturday, March 11, 2023

We are now in the Suicene

The Holocene is the geological epoch that started approximately 11,650 years ago. The demarcation point between the Holocene and the preceding Pleistocene is the end of the last Glacial Period, in line with variations in the Earth's orbit. 

Anthropocene

Instead of going down as would be in line with changes in the Earth's orbit, temperatures and greenhouse gas levels over the past few thousands of years have kept going up as a result of activities by people. In other words, changes in the Earth's orbit were no longer the dominant force causing changes in temperature and greenhouse gas levels, instead, human activities had become more dominant. 

Start of the Anthropocene

It makes sense to name an epoch after the dominant force shaping its climate. An earlier analysis concludes that, from the year 3480 BC, emissions by people have been higher than the amount it takes to negate the natural trend for the temperature to fall. From 3480 BC, forcing due to activities by people was stronger than the natural fall in temperature that would have eventuated in the absence of such activities. This makes the year 3480 BC most significant as a climate marker, and it makes sense to regard this both as the base for the temperature rise from pre-industrial and as the start of the Anthropocene. 

End of the Anthropocene

At the Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, nations pledged to limit the temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts taken to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The image below illustrates that, despite these pledges, these thresholds may already have been crossed. 

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

The earlier analysis concludes that the rise from pre-industrial to 2020 could be as much as 2.29°C, which would mean that the thresholds set at the Paris Agreement have already been crossed and the rise from pre-industrial may well exceed 3°C soon, in turn effectively making 3°C the (new) threshold that should not be crossed, the more so since humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.


Humans are now functionally extinct
  1. The situation is dire in many respects, including poor conditions of sea ice, levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, extreme weather causing droughts, flooding and storms, land suffering from deforestation, desertification, groundwater depletion and increased salinity, and oceans suffering from ocean heat, oxygen depletion, acidification, stratification, etc. These are the conditions that we're already in now. 

  2. On top of that, the outlook over the next few years is grim. Circumstances are making the situation even more dire, such as the emerging El Niño, a high peak in sunspots, the Tonga eruption that added a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere. Climate models often average out such circumstances, but over the next few years the peaks just seem to be piling up, while the world keeps expanding fossil fuel use and associated infrastructure that increases the Urban Heat Island Effect.

  3. As a result, feedbacks look set to kick in with ever greater ferocity, while developments such as crossing of tipping points could take place with the potential to drive humans (and many other species) into extinction wirhin years. The temperature on land on the Northern Hemisphere may rise so strongly that much traffic, transport and industrial activity could suddenly grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. Temperatures could additionally rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.

  4. As a final straw breaking the camel's back, the world keeps appointing omnicidal maniacs who act in conflict with best-available scientific analysis including warnings that humans will likely go fully extinct with a 3°C rise.


The Suicine

As we keep appointing omnicidal maniacs who act in conflict with best-available scientific analysis, we are now facing a temperature rise that looks set to drive humans into extinction. Humans are now functionally extinct, and another name change is in order. Indeed, we are now in the Suicene. 


Conclusion

In conclusion, we have left the Anthropocene. We are now functionally extinct and we look set to drag most, if not all life on Earth into extinction with us, as we keep appointing omnicidal maniacs who act in conflict with best-available scientific analysis. We are now in the Suicene.

In the video below, Sandy discusses the situation. 

 

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Friday, February 3, 2023

Dire situation gets even more dire

Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.788 million km² on February 21, 2023, an all-time low in the NSIDC record.

Antarctic sea ice area was 1,050,708 km² on February 22, 2023, as illustrated by the Nico Sun image below.


This means that a huge amount of heat that was previously reflected back into space by the sea ice is now instead absorbed by the Southern Ocean, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop that results in further sea ice loss, in turn further speeding up the temperature rise and making the weather ever more extreme.


Arctic sea ice extent was 14,271,000 km² on February 19, 2023, the third-lowest extent in the NSIDC record for the time of year, as illustrated by the above image.


Global sea ice extent reached a record low of 15,500,000 km² on February 11, 2023, as illustrated by the above image.

The situation is dire

The dire situation is further illustrated by the image below, showing high sea surface temperature anomalies (from 1981-2011) over the Southern Ocean, the Atlantic ocean and the Arctic Ocean on February 19, 2023. 


Given the dire situation regarding sea ice and sea surface temperatures, Arctic sea ice may fall dramatically later in the year.

Furthermore, emissions, ocean heat and greenhouse gas levels all keep rising. 

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, reached a record average daily high of 422.88 parts per million (ppm) on February 28, 2023, as illustrated by the above image and the image below. 


It is remarkable for CO₂ levels to already reach record high levels this early in the year, given that CO₂ levels typically reach their annual maximum in May. This spells bad news for developments over the next few months. Keep in mind that carbon dioxide reaches its maximum warming some 10 years after emission, so we haven't been hit by the full wrath of carbon dioxide pollution yet.

Possibly even worse is the rise in methane. The image below shows NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data from 2016, with methane reaching 1923.57 parts per billion (ppb) in November 2022. A moving average centered over 12 months is added to highlight the acceleration in the rise in methane.


Accordingly, temperatures keep rising. An earlier analysis concludes that we have already exceeded the 2°C threshold set at the Paris Agreement in 2015.

These dire conditions spell bad news regarding the temperature rise to come, the more so since, on top of these dire conditions, there are a number of circumstances, feedbacks and further developments that make the outlook even more dire.

Circumstances that make the situation even more dire

Firstly, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA, we're moving into an El Niño.

It looks like it's going to be a very strong El Niño, given that we've been in a La Niña for such a long time.

Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Temperature anomalies can be very high during an El Niño. The February 2016 temperature on land-only was 2.96°C above 1880-1920, and in February 2020, it was 2.79°C higher, as illustrated by the image below, created with screenshots taken on February 15, 2023. Note that 1880-1920 isn't pre-industrial.


Secondly, sunspots look set to reach a very high maximum by July 2025, as illustrated by the next two images on the right, adapted from NOAA.

Observed values for January 2023 are already well above the maximum values that NOAA predicted to be reached in July 2025.

If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from May 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C, a recent analysis found.

Thirdly, the 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere.

Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, this is further contributing to speed up the temperature rise.

A 2023 study calculates that the submarine volcano eruption near Tonga in January 2022, as also discussed at facebook, will have a warming effect of 0.12 Watts/m² over the next few years.

The image below, created with NOAA data, shows Annual Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomalies and has two trends added. The blue trend, based on 1850-2022 data, points at 3°C rise by 2032. The pink trend, based on 2012-2022 data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, showing that this could trigger a huge rise, with 3°C crossed in 2024. Anomalies are from 1901-2000 (not from pre-industrial).


Feedbacks and developments making things worse

Indeed, a huge temperature rise could be triggered, due to a multitude of feedbacks and further developments that could strongly deteriorate the situation even further.

On top of the water vapor added by the Tonga eruption, there are several feedbacks causing more water vapor to get added to the atmosphere, as discussed at Moistening Atmosphere.

Further feedbacks include additional greenhouse gas releases such as methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide from rapidly thawing permafrost on land.

The image below shows the Northern Hemisphere Ocean Temperature Anomaly, compared to 1901-2000. The pink trend, based on 1850-2022 data, shows that the Latent Heat Tipping Point (at 1°C) was crossed in 2022, but the red trend, based on 2007-2022 data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and shows both the Latent Heat Tipping Point and the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point (at 1.35°C) getting crossed in 2024. 


Ominously, November 2023 temperature anomalies are forecast to be at the top end of the scale for a large part of the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the tropicaltidbits.com image below. 


Some developments could make things even worse and a huge temperature rise could unfold soon. The image below shows a polynomial trend added to NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data from April 2018 to November 2022, pointing at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027.

The Clouds Tipping Point, at 1200 ppm CO₂e, could be crossed and this on its own could result in a further rise of 8°C. As illustrated by the above image, this tipping point could be crossed as early as in 2027 due to forcing caused by the rise in methane alone. When further forcing is taken into account, this could happen even earlier than in 2027. 

On top of the February 28, 2023 daily average of 422.88 ppm for CO₂, methane can add 384.71 ppm CO₂e when using a 1-year GWP of 200 for NOAA's 1923.57 ppb November 2022 methane mean.

While methane at higher altitude can reach even higher levels than NOAA's marine surface data, adding NOAA's November 2022 mean to 422.88 ppm CO₂ would leave just 392.41 ppm CO₂e for further forcing, before the Clouds Tipping Point would get crossed, as the image on the right illustrates.

[ see the Extinction page ]
Further forcing comes from nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases, while rises in other gases and further changes such as caused by sea ice loss and changes in aerosols can also speed up the temperature rise.

Changes in aerosols are discussed in earlier posts such as this post and this post. The upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so strong that much traffic, transport and industrial activity will grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. These are mainly sulfates, but burning of fossil fuel and biomass also emits iron that helps photosynthesis of phytoplankton in oceans, as a 2022 study points out. 

Without these emissions, the temperature is projected to rise strongly, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.

The image on the right, from the extinction page, includes a potential rise of 1.9°C by 2026 as the sulfate cooling effect falls away and an additional rise of 0.6°C due to an increase in warming aerosols by 2026, as discussed in this post and earlier posts.

The image on the right indicates that the rise from pre-industrial to 2020 could be as much as 2.29°C. Earth's energy imbalance has grown since 2020. Therefore, the rise up to now may be higher. 

Climate Tipping Points and further Events and Developments

The temperature could also be pushed up further due to reductions in the carbon sink on land. An earlier post mentions a study that found that the Amazon rainforest is no longer a sink, but has become a source, contributing to warming the planet instead; another study found that soil bacteria release CO₂ that was previously thought to remain trapped by iron; another study found that forest soil carbon does not increase with higher CO₂ levels; another study found that forests' long-term capacity to store carbon is dropping in regions with extreme annual fires; another earlier post discussed the Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point, coined in a study finding that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis, which under business-as-usual emissions would nearly halve the land sink strength by as early as 2040.

This earlier post also discusses how CO₂ and heat taken up by oceans can be reduced. A 2021 study on oceans finds that, with increased stratification, heat from climate warming less effectively penetrates into the deep ocean, which contributes to further surface warming, while it also reduces the capability of the ocean to store carbon, exacerbating global surface warming. A 2022 study finds that ocean uptake of CO₂ from the atmosphere decreases as the Meridional Overturning Circulation slows down. An earlier analysis warns about growth of a layer of fresh water at the surface of the North Atlantic resulting in more ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean and the atmosphere over the Arctic, while a 2023 study finds that growth of a layer of fresh water decreases its alkalinity and thus its ability to take up CO₂, a feedback referred to as the Ocean Surface Tipping Point.

[ from Blue Ocean Event 2022? - click on images to enlarge ]

The above image depicts only one sequence of events, or one scenario out of many. Things may eventuate in different orders and occur simultaneously, i.e. instead of one domino tipping over the next one sequentially, many events may occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. Further events and developments could be added to the list, such as ocean stratification and stronger storms that can push large amounts of warm salty water into the Arctic Ocean.

While loss of Arctic sea ice and loss of Permafrost in Siberia and North America are often regarded as tipping points, Antarctic sea ice loss, and loss of the snow and ice cover on Greenland, on Antarctica and on mountaintops such as the Tibetan Plateau could also be seen as tipping points. Another five tipping points are: 
- The Latent Heat Tipping Point
- The Seafloor Methane Tipping Point

Extinction

Altogether, the rise from pre-industrial to 2026 could be more than 18.44°C, while humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.


This should act as a warning that near-term human extinction could occur sooner than most may think. Indeed, when asked what could cause humans to go extinct, many may mention:
  1. asteroid strikes
  2. rampant pestilence, diseases, epidemics and pandemics
  3. war, murder and violence
  4. ecosystems and vegetation collapse, famine
  5. dehydration
  6. plastic pollution, spread of poisonous and toxic substances
  7. nuclear accidents, nuclear war or waste leakage
  8. outbreaks of antibiotic-resistant bacteria
  9. emerging new or re-emerging ancient microbes
10. bio-weapons and biological experiments gone out of hand
11. infertility, genetic degeneration, loss of genetic diversity
12. madness, cults, depression and suicide
13. polar shifts, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis
14. Artificial Intelligence gone rogue
15. hostile aliens breeding predatory animals

More recently, climate change threats are mentioned such as:
16. destructive storms, flooding, fires and more extreme weather
17. hydrogen sulfide gas released from oceans
18. depletion of the ozone layer
19. co-extinctions, i.e. extinction of species that humans depend on, resulting in our own demise.

There may be more threats, but I think the biggest threat is:
20. temperature rise
In the video below, Edge of Extinction: Destination Destruction, Guy McPherson gives his view on our predicament.




Conclusion

The dire situation we're in looks set to get even more dire, calling for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan and Transforming Society.


Links

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://www.nsidc.org

• NSIDC - Chartic interactive sea ice graph
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Cryosphere Computing - by Nico Sun
https://cryospherecomputing.com

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Climate Reanalyzer - sea ice based on NSIDC index V3
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice

• NOAA - greenhouse gases - trends

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Monthly temperature anomalies versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202301/supplemental/page-4

• NOAA - Solar cycle progression

• NASA gistemp Monthly Mean Global Surface Temperature - Land Only

• NOAA - Annual Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomalies 

• Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C - by Stuart Jenkins et al. (2023)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01568-2



• Moistening Atmosphere
• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more

• Latent Heat

• Blue Ocean Event

• Tropicaltidbits.com

• Methane keeps rising

• A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Human Extinction by 2025?

• 2020: Hottest Year On Record

• The Importance of Methane in Climate Change

• The underappreciated role of anthropogenic sources in atmospheric soluble iron flux to the Southern Ocean - by Mingxu Liu et al. (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00250-w

• How close are we to the temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere? - by Katharyn Duffy et al. (2021)

• Overshoot or Omnicide? 

• Upper Ocean Temperatures Hit Record High in 2020 - by Lijing Cheng et al. (2021)

• Reduced CO₂ uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation - by Yi Liu et al. (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01555-7

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
• Long-Term Slowdown of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Alkalinity Dynamics - by Megumi Chikamoto et al. (2023) 
• Ocean Surface Tipping Point Could Accelerate Climate Change

• When Will We Die?

• Edge of Extinction: Destination Destruction - video by Guy McPherson




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