Showing posts with label Guy McPherson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Guy McPherson. Show all posts

Thursday, July 6, 2023

Dire situation gets more dire every day

Conditions are dire


The world temperature was at a record high 17.23°C or 63.01°F on July 6, 2023 (black). The maximum temperature in 2022 (orange) and in 2016 (grey) was 16.92°C or 62.46°F (on July 24, 2022, and on August 13+14, 2016). The year 2016 is important, since there was a strong El Niño in 2016 and we're now again in an El Niño. 

As the image below adds, the 17.23°C temperature recorded on July 6, 2023, is a daily value, but if indicative for July 2023, the closest value for CMIP5 RCP8.5 would be 17.255°C, projected to occur in July 2035 (13 years away from now).

[ The international consortium Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
defines scenarios for use in climate projections. Its CMIP5 scenario (an average of
39 models of near-surface temperature and precipitation, and mean sea level pressure)
can be used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). ]

Why is the temperature rising so fast? 

The image below mentions a number of contributors, with charts added from an earlier post. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

1. Emissions are high and greenhouse gas levels keep rising, increasing Earth's Energy Imbalance. 

2. We did come out of a La Niña that has for years been suppressing temperatures and we are now in an El Niño. A 2023 study led by Tao Lian predicts the current El Niño to be strong. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as discussed in an earlier post. Temperature anomalies can be very high during an El Niño. The image below shows that February 2016 on land was 3.28°C (5.904°F) hotter than 1880-1896, and 3.68°C (6.624°F) hotter compared to February 1880 on land. Note that 1880-1896 is not pre-industrial, the rise will be even larger when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.
The above image, from an earlier post, adds a poignant punchline: Looking at global averages over long periods is a diversion, peak temperature rise is the killer!

[ click on images to enlarge ]
3. The June 2023 number of sunspots is more than twice as high as predicted, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post and adapted from NOAA. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from May 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C, a recent analysis found.

4. The January 2022 submarine volcano eruption near Tonga did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post and also at facebook. Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, this further contributes to speeding up the temperature rise. A 2023 study calculates that the eruption will have a warming effect of 0.12 Watts/m² over the next few years.

5. There are further things that contribute to the temperature rise, such as reductions of Sahara dust and of sulfur aerosols co-emitted with fossil fuel combustion that previously masked the temperature rise. 

The above points apply to the global temperature rise. The North Atlantic sea surface temperature is rising even stronger than the global rise, due to the following points:
  • The narrowing temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics is slowing down the flow of air from the Tropics to the Arctic, deforming the Jet Stream, and that can strongly prolong and amplify extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere, and result in stronger heating up of the North Atlantic.
  • This is also slowing down AMOC, causing more hot water to accumulate in the North Atlantic and to reach the Arctic Ocean, resulting in strong melting of sea ice from below and thus strong thinning.
  • Additionally, as temperatures rise, increased stratification further speeds up the sea surface temperature rise.
  • As the North Atlantic Ocean heats up and as cold air from the Arctic can more deeply descend over North America (due to Jet Stream deformation), the temperature difference between land and oceans widens, especially during the Northern Winter, and this can result in storms abruptly pushing strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, pushing ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean, with stronger evaporation occurring over the North Atlantic and with stronger precipitation (rain, snow, etc.) occurring further down the path of the Gulf Stream. This stronger evaporation cools the surface of the North Atlantic.
  • This cooling, together with cooling from increased meltwater, also results in formation of a cold freshwater lid on top of the North Atlantic, also because freshwater is less dense than saltwater.
  • This lid on top of the North Atlantic enables more hot water to flow underneath this lid into the Arctic Ocean, with the danger that more heat will reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and destabilize hydrates, resulting in eruption of huge amounts of methane.
  • This sea surface cooling has until now covered up the full extent of the rise in ocean heat in the North Atlantic, but - as illustrated by the image below - the continued rise in ocean heat now is overwhelming this cooling.
The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 23.3°C on June 21, 2023 (on the black line), 0.9°C higher than the 22.4°C on June 21, 2022 (on the orange line). A record high of 24.9°C was reached on September 4, 2022, even while La Niña at the time was suppressing the temperature, whereas there now is an El Niño, so the outlook is grim.

[ from earlier post ]
Feedbacks and developments that make the outlook even more threatening

Globally, methane rose to 1924.99 ppb in December 2022. The image below has a polynomial trend added that is based on April 2018 to December 2022 NOAA global methane data and is pointing at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027. The Clouds Tipping Point, at 1200 ppm CO₂e, could be crossed and this on its own could result in a further rise of 8°C. This tipping point could be crossed as early as in 2027 due to forcing caused by the rise in methane alone. When further forcing is taken into account, this could happen even earlier than in 2027.
[ from earlier post ]
[ click on images to enlarge ]
On February 22, 2023, Antarctic sea ice area was only 1,050,708 km² in size, as discussed in an earlier post. Since that time, Antarctic sea ice has been growing at a much slower pace than in previous years. On July 4, 2023, Antarctic sea ice area was 9,385,739 km² in size, and sea ice has actually been falling in size recently, as illustrated by the Nico Sun image on the right. Less sea ice means that sunlight previously reflected back into space by the sea ice is now instead getting absorbed by the Southern Ocean, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop that results in further sea ice loss, in turn further speeding up the temperature rise and making the weather ever more extreme.

[ Two out of numerous feedbacks ]
This dire situation spells bad news regarding the temperature rise to come, the more so since, on top of these dire conditions, there are feedbacks and further developments that make the outlook even more threatening. 

A huge temperature rise could be triggered abruptly, due to a multitude of feedbacks and further developments that could strongly deteriorate the situation even further, such as by causing more water vapor to get added to the atmosphere, as discussed at Moistening Atmosphere and Extreme Heat Stress.

[ see the Extinction page ]
Changes in aerosols are discussed in earlier posts such as this post and this post. The upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so strong that much traffic, transport and industrial activity will grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. These are mainly sulfates, but burning of fossil fuel and biomass also emits iron that currently helps photosynthesis of phytoplankton in oceans, as a 2022 study points out, and less iron means less drawdown of carbon dioxide. 

Without these emissions, the temperature is projected to rise strongly, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.

The image on the right, from the extinction page, includes a potential rise of 1.9°C by 2026 as the sulfate cooling effect falls away and an additional rise of 0.6°C due to an increase in warming aerosols by 2026, as discussed in this post and earlier posts.

The image on the right indicates that the rise from pre-industrial to 2020 could be as much as 2.29°C. Earth's energy imbalance has grown since 2020, so the rise up to now may be even higher. 

Climate Tipping Points and further Events and Developments

The temperature could also be pushed up further due to reductions in the carbon sink on land. An earlier post mentions a study that found that the Amazon rainforest is no longer a sink, but has become a source, contributing to warming the planet instead; another study found that soil bacteria release CO₂ that was previously thought to remain trapped by iron; another study found that forest soil carbon does not increase with higher CO₂ levels; another study found that forests' long-term capacity to store carbon is dropping in regions with extreme annual fires; another earlier post discussed the Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point, coined in a study finding that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis, which under business-as-usual emissions would nearly halve the land sink strength by as early as 2040.

This earlier post also discusses how CO₂ and heat taken up by oceans can be reduced. A 2021 study on oceans finds that, with increased stratification, heat from climate warming less effectively penetrates into the deep ocean, which contributes to further surface warming, while it also reduces the capability of the ocean to store carbon, exacerbating global surface warming. A 2022 study finds that ocean uptake of CO₂ from the atmosphere decreases as the Meridional Overturning Circulation slows down. An earlier analysis warns about growth of a layer of fresh water at the surface of the North Atlantic resulting in more ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean and the atmosphere over the Arctic, while a 2023 study finds that growth of a layer of fresh water decreases its alkalinity and thus its ability to take up CO₂, a feedback referred to as the Ocean Surface Tipping Point.

[ from Blue Ocean Event 2022? - click on images to enlarge ]
The above image depicts only one sequence of events, or one scenario out of many. Things may eventuate in different orders and occur simultaneously, i.e. instead of one domino tipping over the next one sequentially, many events may occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. Further events and developments could be added to the list, such as ocean stratification and stronger storms that can push large amounts of warm salty water into the Arctic Ocean.

While loss of Arctic sea ice and loss of Permafrost in Siberia and North America are often regarded as tipping points, Antarctic sea ice loss, and loss of the snow and ice cover on Greenland, on Antarctica and on mountaintops such as the Tibetan Plateau could also be seen as tipping points. Another five tipping points are: 

Extinction

Altogether, the rise from pre-industrial to 2026 could be more than 18.44°C, while humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.


This should act as a warning that near-term human extinction could occur soon. In the video below, Guy McPherson discusses how fast humans could go extinct. 


Conclusion

The dire situation is getting more dire every day, calling for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan with an update at Transforming Society.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer - World Daily 2-meter Air Temperature (90-90°N, 0-360°E)
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily

• Climate Reanalyzer - CMIP5 RCP8.5 projection
https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/monthly_tseries

• NOAA - Solar cycle sunspot number progression
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

• A Strong 2023/24 El Niño is Staged by Tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content Buildup - by Tao Lian et al. (2023)
https://spj.science.org/doi/10.34133/olar.0011

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://www.nsidc.org

• NSIDC - Chartic interactive sea ice graph
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Cryosphere Computing - by Nico Sun
https://cryospherecomputing.com

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Climate Reanalyzer - sea ice based on NSIDC index V3
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice

• NOAA - greenhouse gases - trends CH4 (methane)
• NOAA - Solar cycle progression

• NASA gistemp Monthly Mean Global Surface Temperature - Land Only

• NOAA - Annual Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomalies 

• Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C - by Stuart Jenkins et al. (2023)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01568-2



• Moistening Atmosphere
• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more

• Latent Heat

• Blue Ocean Event

• Methane keeps rising

• A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Human Extinction by 2025?

• 2020: Hottest Year On Record

• The Importance of Methane in Climate Change

• The underappreciated role of anthropogenic sources in atmospheric soluble iron flux to the Southern Ocean - by Mingxu Liu et al. (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00250-w

• How close are we to the temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere? - by Katharyn Duffy et al. (2021)

• Overshoot or Omnicide? 

• Upper Ocean Temperatures Hit Record High in 2020 - by Lijing Cheng et al. (2021)

• Reduced CO₂ uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation - by Yi Liu et al. (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01555-7

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
• Long-Term Slowdown of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Alkalinity Dynamics - by Megumi Chikamoto et al. (2023) 
• Ocean Surface Tipping Point Could Accelerate Climate Change

• When Will We Die?

• Edge of Extinction: Extinct - HOW FAST? - video by Guy McPherson

• Edge of Extinction: Destination Destruction - video by Guy McPherson


• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html






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Sunday, May 7, 2023

Will there be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023?

Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?


The above image is from a recent analysis by Karina von Schuckmann et al. and shows that the Earth is heating up, as outgoing radiation is suppressed. More and more extra heat is kept captive on Earth and gets stored mainly in oceans (89%), with smaller proportions getting stored on land (6-5%), in the cryosphere (4%) and in the atmosphere (1-2%). The above image also shows that, for the period going back to 1971, 1% more heat gets stored in the atmosphere, while 1% less gets stored on land, compared to the period going back to 2006. The image below takes a closer look at that. 


Huge amounts of heat go into the ground (90%), with inland water bodies accounting for 0.7% and permafrost thawing accounting for 9%. At the same time, even more energy goes into evaporation from land and lakes, and into thawing permaforst. Water that previously remained present in the ground, is increasingly moving up into the atmosphere, since a warming atmosphere holds more water vapor (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming) and thus sucks up increasingly more water. More energy gets consumed in the process of evaporation from land and from lakes, and in the process of thawing permafrost, but these are finite resources. Indeed, as land dries out, lakes dry up and permafrost shrinks, these resources dwindle. There is a point where there is no more water available in the soil, in lakes and in permafrost, and the heat previously consumed by evaporation and thawing will instead remain in the atmosphere. More water vapor in the atmosphere further amplifies the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, and this also contributes to speeding up the temperature rise of the atmosphere. 

An atmosphere that sucks up more water vapor increases the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). A 2019 study warns that increased VPD reduces global vegetation growth: "VPD greatly limits land evapotranspiration in many biomes by altering the behavior of plant stomata. Increased VPD may trigger stomatal closure to avoid excess water loss due to the high evaporative demand of the air. In addition, reduced soil water supply coupled with high evaporative demand causes xylem conduits and the rhizosphere to cavitate (become air-filled), stopping the flow of water, desiccating plant tissues, and leading to plant death. Previous studies reported that increased VPD explained 82% of the warm season drought stress in the southwestern United States, which correlated to changes of forest productivity and mortality. In addition, enhanced VPD limits tree growth even before soil moisture begins to be limiting."

The Land Evaporation Tipping Point can get crossed locally when water is no longer available locally for further evapotranspiration from the soil and vegetation, with the rise in land surface temperatures accelerating accordingly.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

An earlier post discussed the Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point, coined in a recent study that finds that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis, which under business-as-usual emissions would nearly halve the land sink strength by as early as 2040.

Loss of ice could cause several other tipping points to be crossed soon. About a quarter of the 4% heat consumed by the cryosphere goes into melting glaciers. Disappearance of glaciers could be coined the Glaciers Tipping Point, since from that point heat can no longer go into melting the glacier and will instead go elsewhere.

Similarly, about a quarter of the 4% heat consumed by the cryosphere goes into melting Arctic sea ice. Loss of Arctic sea ice thus could cause several tipping points to get crossed, i.e. the latent heat tipping point (heat that now goes into converting ice into water) and the albedo feedback (sunlight that was previously reflected back into space), and all further incoming heat will from that point on instead go into heating up the Arctic.

So, will there be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023? Current conditions make that the outlook is grim, as sea surface temperatures and greenhouse gas levels are even higher than in previous years.

Surface temperatures

The image below, from an earlier post, illustrates the threat that the temperature rise may exceed 3°C. The blue trend, based on January 1880 to March 2023 data, shows how 3°C could be crossed in 2036. The magenta trend, based on January 2010 to March 2023 data, better reflects relatively short-term variables such as El Niño and illustrates how 3°C could be crossed as early as in 2025.


[ click on images to enlarge ]
The above image uses monthly NASA Land+Ocean temperature anomalies versus 1886-1915 that are further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base, as also discussed in the earlier post. The highest peaks (2016 and 2020) occurred during El Niño events and a new El Niño is now emerging.

The image on the right shows high temperature anomalies on May 16, 2023, over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Such high anomalies occur with increasing frequency and intensity as the Jet Stream gets more and more distorted, as a result of the narrowing temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator. This is just one out of numerous feedbacks that contribute to accelerate the temperature rise in the Arctic. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right is adapted from NASA and shows anomalies versus 1951-1980 of up to 4.79°C. The image also shows that the Arctic is heating up much faster than the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as accelerated Arctic temperature rise.

The next image on the right illustrates how two of these feedbacks contribute to the accelerated Arctic temperature rise:

[ Two out of numerous feedbacks ]
    Feedback #1: albedo loss as sea ice melts away and as it gets covered by soot, dust, algae, meltpools and rainwater pools;

    Feedback #19: distortion of the Jet Stream as the temperature difference narrows between the Arctic and the Tropics, in turn causing further feedbacks to kick in stronger, such as hot air  moving into the Arctic and cold air moving out, and more extreme weather events bringing heavier rain and more intense heatwaves, droughts and forest fires that cause black carbon to settle on the sea ice.


The above image shows the Jet Stream, deformed and stretched out from the North Pole to the South Pole, while crossing the Equator over the Pacific at several places on May 20, 2023. 


The above image shows the Jet Stream, stretched out from the North Pole to the South Pole, crossing the Equator at several places on May 23, 2023, while the sea surface was as much as 13.2°C or 23.7°F hotter than during 1981-2022, more specifically, north of Russia, where the Jet Stream goes circular. 

The image on the right shows that maximum temperatures were high in Russia up onto the Arctic on May, 24, 2023. This causes the water of rivers to heat up, resulting in high sea surface temperature anomalies in the Barents Sea. This hot river water contains less salt than ocean water, so the outflow from rivers tends to spread out over the surface of the Arctic Ocean. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right shows a forecast for May 26, 2023. Very high temperature anomalies show up over North Russia, while heat extends over much of the Arctic Ocean. 

Heatwaves threaten to cause rapid thawing of permafrost and the heat can extend from land to far over the Arctic Ocean, threatening to cause melting of Arctic sea ice from above.

Heatwaves also cause hot water from rivers to flow into the Arctic Ocean, threatening to cause melting of Arctic sea ice from the side. 

Meanwhile, vast amounts of ocean heat are pushed by strong wind from the North Pacific and the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean, threatening to cause melting of Arctic sea ice from below.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ocean heat moving toward the Arctic along the path of the Gulf Stream on May 24, 2023, with sea surface temperatures as high as 32.1°C.

As discussed in a recent post, the world sea surface temperature (between 60°South and 60°North) has been at 21°C or higher for as many as 38 days. Such temperatures are unprecedented in the NOAA record that goes back to 1981.

The image below shows that, at the end of May 2023, the temperature of the World sea surface (between 60°S and 60°N) was 20.9°C, much higher than it was in 2022 at that time of year (2022: orange, 2023: black).


The sea surface temperature on the North Atlantic (SST NA) is critical in regard to melting of the Arctic sea ice, which typically reaches its minimum annual extent in September. As the image below shows, SST NA was 21.5°C on May 17, 2023 (black line), half a degree Celsius higher than the 21°C reached on May 17, 2022 (orange). The outlook for Arctic sea ice is grim, as SST NA reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September 2022, when temperatures were suppressed by a La Niño. This time, an El Niño is on the way. 


On May 11, 2023, the sea surface off the North American coast was as much as 10.7°C or 19.2°F (green circle) hotter than 1981-2011, as illustrated by the above image. A distorted Jet Stream is stretched out from pole to pole (wind at 250 hPa). The blue colors reflect melting of sea ice and runoff from land, as well as strong wind in the path of the Jet Stream. The high temperatures of the North Atlantic make the outlook for Arctic sea ice grim and the blue colors on the map could soon be overwhelmed by ocean heat.


Forcing by elevated well-mixed GHG levels has virtually certainly caused the multiyear persistent 2019–2021 marine heatwave. The warming pool is marked by concurrent and pronounced increase in annual mean, and variance of SSTs (Figure below left) and decrease in cold-season low-cloud’s cooling effect. EUMETSAT satellite data shows a 5% decade⁻¹ decreasing trend in cold-season cloud cover during 1995–2018 (Figure below right). Low-cloud cover reduction is the major contribution to the observed decline in total cloud fraction, resulting in decreases of winter-time low-cloud’s cooling effect.


Greenhouse gases levels

As the temperature rises at the surface as a result of emissions by people, more water vapor enters the atmosphere. 

[ Click on images to enlarge ]
The IPCC says: "Water vapour feedback acting alone approximately doubles the warming from what it would be for fixed water vapour. Furthermore, water vapour feedback acts to amplify other feedbacks in models, such as cloud feedback and ice albedo feedback. If cloud feedback is strongly positive, the water vapour feedback can lead to 3.5 times as much warming as would be the case if water vapour concentration were held fixed".

The temperature rise due to extra water vapor works immediately, i.e. it goes hand in hand with rises due to other warming elements. Research indicates that, if the temperature of Earth rises by 1°C, the associated increase in water vapor will trap an extra 2 Watts of energy per m². 

NASA explains that cloud formation depends on both water vapor and air temperatures. The colder the air, the more readily any water vapor in the air will condense into clouds.

As illustrated by the image on the right, a carbon dioxide level as high as around 427 ppm was recorded recently at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. This constitutes an increase of over 100 ppm since flask records started in 1969, as illustrated by the image below.

Politicians have forfeited the chance to influence the process and must from now on be kept as much as possible out of the climate picture. We, the people, must now support a Climate Emergency Declaration and support communities seeking effective climate action.


Hourly carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels as high as around 430 ppm were recorded at Mauna Loa recently, as illustrated by the above image. CO₂ typically reaches its annual high in May or June, so even higher levels could be reached in 2023.

Even more crucially, methane emissions should be cut rapidly and dramatically, as discussed in an earlier post. The image on the right shows methane levels as high as around 1990 ppb recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. 
[ from earlier post ]
If a trend such as the one in the above image continues, the Clouds Tipping Point could be crossed as early as in 2027 due to forcing caused by the rise in methane alone. 

Crossing the Clouds Tipping point, at 1200 ppm CO₂e,  could on its own cause a further rise of 8°C and this could happen even earlier than in 2027 when further forcing other than just the forcing from methane is taken into account. 

The above image uses NOAA's global marine surface data. Methane at higher altitude can reach even higher levels. As illustrated by an image in an earlier post, monthly methane recently rose to above 1950 ppb at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

The above 1990 ppb peak methane measurement translates into 398 ppm CO₂e when using a 1-year GWP of 200 for methane. Adding this 398 ppm CO₂e to the above 427 ppm CO₂ would leave just 375 ppm CO₂e for further forcing.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Part of that 375 ppm CO₂e for further forcing will be taken up by nitrous oxide (N₂O). NOAA registered 336.45 ppb for N₂O for January 2023, which at a GWP of 273 could translate into 91.85 ppm CO₂e. Further drivers of climate change are CFCs, HCFCs and HFCs, which NOAA gives about twice as much radiative forcing as N₂O.

As concentrations of greenhouse gases keep rising, when could the clouds tipping point be reached and to what extent could the rise in water vapor contribute to the tipping point of 1200 ppm CO₂e to get crossed? What is the influence of water vapor? 

When averaged over the globe, increased water vapor does cause the temperature to rise, but this rise is often regarded to be outweighed by an increase in low cloud cover that causes more sunlight to be reflected back into space, and that thus causes cooling.

Even so, the situation is different at higher latitudes, where there is less sunlight, particularly during Winter. Furthermore, many feedbacks particularly affect the Arctic, resulting in acceleration of the temperature rise in the Arctic.

The danger is that, as temperatures rise, low cloud cover will decrease strongly at higher latitudes, and this will cause the rise in water vapor to be felt more strongly at higher latitudes, thus constituting another feedback that is felt particularly strongly at higher latitudes, contributing further to amplification of the temperature rise at higher latitudes.

In conclusion, the joint forcing of greenhouse gases is threatening to cause the Clouds Tipping Point at 1200 ppm CO₂e to get crossed. While it can get complicated when adding up the impact of the various drivers, the above calculations should act as a warning. The upcoming El Nino will cause a temperature rise that can additionally act as a trigger to unleash and accelerate further developments, such as caused by sea ice loss and changes in aerosols that can abruptly speed up the temperature rise, and thus also further raise the concentration of greenhouse gases including water vapor in the atmosphere and thus also further raise CO₂e levels.


Sea ice


Global sea ice extent is at a record low for the time of year again (20.99 million km² on May 30, 2023), following the record low extent of 15.5 million km² on February 11, 2023, as illustrated by the above image. 

Rising temperatures in the Arctic threaten to trigger massive loss of Arctic sea ice within months. 

While Arctic sea ice is still extensive, sea ice concentration is already getting lower in many places and there is open water in parts of the Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay, as illustrated by the Uni of Bremen image on the right. 

The image on the right, from DMI.dk shows Arctic sea ice volume getting very low on May 30, 2023, lower than any of the four previous years for the time of year. 

The satellite images below, adapted from NASA Worldview, show that the sea ice had many cracks early May 2023.

The image below also shows that there was a lot of open water in the Beaufort Sea on May 7, 2023. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The satellite image on the right shows many cracks in the sea ice just north of the northern tip of Greenland on May 3, 2023, further evidence that the sea ice is very vulnerable. Over the years, multi-year sea ice has fallen dramatically, raising the question whether there will be Arctic sea ice left in September 2023.

El Niño and further variables

Ominously, November 2023 temperature anomalies are forecast to be at the top end of the scale for a large part of the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the tropicaltidbits.com image below.

Note the high temperature anomalies forecast on the image below for the equatorial Pacific, indicative of an El Niño. 


The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter. 

Furthermore, sunspots are higher than predicted and the Tonga submarine volcano did add large amounts of water vapor high into the atmosphere. 

Conditions and outlook

In summary, conditions are dire, i.e. emissions are high, greenhouse gases are at record high levels, temperatures are high, and sea surface temperatures are very high. Meanwhile, an El Niño is on the way and, combined with other variables, this could raise temperatures significantly. 

All this could combine to cause massive loss of Arctic sea ice. Loss of Arctic sea ice comes with loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo that threaten to trigger subsequent eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post, in this post and in this post.

In addition, there are further events and developments that could unfold and make things even worse, as described in more detail below. In short, a huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon.

Climate Tipping Points and further Events and Developments

A 2021 study on oceans finds that, with increased stratification, heat from climate warming less effectively penetrates into the deep ocean, which contributes to further surface warming, while it also reduces the capability of the ocean to store carbon, exacerbating global surface warming. An earlier analysis warns about growth of a layer of fresh water at the surface of the North Atlantic resulting in more ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean and the atmosphere over the Arctic, while a 2023 study finds that growth of a layer of fresh water decreases its alkalinity and thus its ability to take up CO₂, a feedback referred to as the Ocean Surface Tipping Point.

[ from Blue Ocean Event 2022? - click on images to enlarge ]
The above image depicts only one sequence of events, or one scenario out of many. Things may eventuate in different orders and occur simultaneously, i.e. instead of one domino tipping over the next one sequentially, many events may occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. Further events and developments can be added to the list, such as ocean stratification and stronger storms that can push large amounts of warm salty water into the Arctic Ocean.

Loss of Arctic sea ice can be described as a tipping point as it accelerates heating up of the Arctic through albedo loss and comes with loss of the latent heat buffer, while loss of Permafrost in Siberia and North America can furthermore be regarded as a tipping point. Jointly, they can cause a huge temperature rise and trigger huge emissions of greenhouse gases, including vast amounts of methane. Similarly, loss of Antarctic sea ice, loss of the snow and ice cover on Greenland, on Antarctica and on mountaintops such as the Tibetan Plateau can each be seen as tipping points.

In conclusion, and as discussed in various earlier posts, there are many tipping points that could get crossed soon, including:
- The Glaciers Tipping Point (discussed above)
- The Seafloor Methane Tipping Point (destabilization of sediments)
- The Clouds Tipping Point (at 1200 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent)
- The Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point (discussed above)
- The Ocean Surface Tipping Point (discussed above)


Few people wanted to accept that the temperature could rise by 20°C within decades, when the above image was made back in 2013, now almost a decade ago. To his great credit, Guy McPherson used the graph in several of his presentations (inset). Sadly, little or nothing has been done since to combat the temperature rise, and in hindsight, the speed at which the temperature rise could unfold and the resulting number of deaths may have been too conservative. In the May 2023 video below, Guy McPherson gives his views. 




Links

• Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go? - by Karina von schuckmann et al. 
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1675/2023
Discussion at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160713282559679

• UNEP Foresight Brief 025
https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/36619/FB025.pdf

• Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reducesglobal vegetation growth - by Wenping Yuan et al. 
https://www.science.org/doi/epdf/10.1126/sciadv.aax1396
Discussion at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10157565091229679

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• NOAA SST
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html

NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Earth System Research Laboratories
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Keeling Curve
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

• University of Bremen - sea ice concentration and thickness
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center - ENSO

• Nullschool.net

• Feedbacks in the Arctic

• Jet Stream

• The Clouds feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic

• NASA Worldview

• Polar Portal - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration


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