The above image, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer, shows temperature anomalies of more than 40°F (22.22°C) higher than 1979-2000 forecast for December 25, 2025 (21:00 UTC) over parts of the United States, discussed
here on facebook.
Earlier forecasts warned about even higher anomalies over the Arctic, as illustrated by the image below.
As temperatures rise, extreme weather events are striking with increasingly stronger ferocity, heightened intensity, longer duration, greater frequency and wider ubiquity.
The above image shows temperature anomalies of more than 28°C above 1979-2000 forecast over the Arctic Ocean for December 24, 2025 06z.
The image on the right shows that extremely high daily average temperature anomalies hit parts of the Arctic Ocean and Greenland on December 22, 2025, while that same day extremely low daily temperature anomalies hit parts of Canada, Alaska and Siberia.
The image on the right shows a temperature at the North Pole of -4.3°C or 24.3°F on December 14, 2025 17:00 UTC (also discussed in this
post on facebook).
Distortion of the Jet Stream can cause extreme weather events and wild weather swings. The image below shows how the Jet Stream is forecast to form an 'Omega' pattern at 250 hPa over Greenland on December 21, 2025 18:00 UTC, with temperatures on the east coast of Greenland forecast to be as high as 7.1°C or 44.7°F.
Strong wind can abruptly push huge amounts of ocean heat from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean.
An influx of warm, salty water into the Arctic Ocean can penetrate sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that contain vast amounts of methane in the form of methane hydrates and free gas underneath such hydrates. Greater salinity and higher temperatures can cause such hydrates to destabilize, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane and in rapid global warming.
Such a rapid warming scenario could unfold if triggered by a stronger-than-expected El Niño event, as follows:
- a stronger-than-expected El Niño would contribute to
- early demise of the Arctic sea ice, i.e. latent heat tipping point +
- associated loss of sea ice albedo,
- destabilization of seafloor methane hydrates, causing eruption of vast amounts of methane that further speed up Arctic warming and cause
- terrestrial permafrost to melt as well, resulting in even more emissions,
- while the Jet Stream gets even more deformed, resulting in more extreme weather events
- causing forest fires, at first in Siberia and Canada and
- eventually also in the peat fields and tropical rain forests of the Amazon, in Africa and South-east Asia, resulting in
- rapid melting on the Himalayas, temporarily causing huge flooding,
- followed by drought, famine, heat waves and mass starvation, and
- collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
The next El Niño
 |
| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
The image on the right shows a
NOAA update of Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts. NOAA considers La Niña conditions to occur when a one-month negative sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5° C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W). Also, there must be an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met, and an atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026.
The graph below, adapted from tropicaltidbits, uses CDAS (Climate Data Assimilation System) data showing an anomaly of -1.268°C on Dec 27, 2025.
The graph gives another idea as to how deep we have descended into La Niña conditions.
The image below, from an earlier post and adapted from ECMWF, shows the ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through November 2026 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.
Temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W) are indicative for ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) conditions. The image below shows anomalies in that region on December 14, 2025, of 0.9° C below 1991-2020, a move deeper into La Niña conditions, which is suppressing temperatures at the moment and that may cause the next El Niño for many to come as a shock.
The CDAS analysis below shows very low sea surface temperature anomalies (in blue) in the Niño3.4 area in the Central Pacific on December 27, 2025.
Moving from the depth of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño in itself can make a difference in the global temperature of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an
earlier post. This
comes on top of feedbacks such as albedo loss and increased water vapor in the atmosphere.
Sea ice
As the image below shows, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.998 million km² on March 1, 2025 and it was 7.569 million km² on December 25, 2025. What Antarctic extent will be on March 1, 2026, is discussed
here on facebook.
The image below shows global sea ice concentration and snow cover on December 26, 2025.
 |
| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
Both sea ice extent and concentration are currently low at both poles, contributing to albedo loss, i.e. less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead getting absorbed by the surface. This leads to an increase in global temperatures, which in turn causes further decline of the snow and ice cover, as well as loss of lower clouds, in a self-amplifying feedback loop.
This spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice. The Antarctic sea ice is expected to reach its minimum in February 2026. The image on the right, adapted from a University of Bremen image, shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on December 26, 2025, while illustrating that albedo decline can occur both due to shrinking, and due to melt pools, cracks, thinning and particles (black carbon, dust, algae, etc.), as also discussed
here on facebook.
The next image on the right is adapted from a NSIDC image and also shows the Antarctic sea ice concentration, on December 25, 2025. Additionally, the image shows the median Antarctic sea ice edge 1981-2010 highlighted in orange.
The danger is that a Double Blue Ocean Event will occur in 2026, i.e. sea ice approaching a low of one million km² both for Antarctic sea ice and Arctic sea ice.
The image below, adapted from a Uni of Bremen image, shows Antarctic sea ice thickness on December 26, 2025.
The above image, from
Ted Scambos et al. (2017), also features in an
earlier post and illustrates the dangerous situation in Antarctica. The danger of progressively stronger intrusions of warm and salty water underneath Antarctic glaciers is also discussed in
this recent study. The danger is that this can cause glacier collapse and destabilization of methane hydrates, in turn causing eruption of huge amounts of methane held in and underneath such hydrates, as also discussed
here on facebook.
 |
| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
The danger of an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event occurring in February 2026 is illustrated by the image on the right, which shows Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies through December 12, 2025.
An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event in February 2026 in turn would threaten to trigger an Arctic Blue Ocean Event later in 2026.
Ominously, Arctic sea ice extent was 11.19 million km² on December 22, 2025, a record low for the time of year. What makes this record daily low even more significant is that it was reached without El Niño conditions elevating temperatures.
The image below, adapted from NSIDC, shows Arctic sea ice extent through December 23, 2025.
Arctic sea ice volume is also at a record low for the time of year, it has been at a record daily low for well over a year. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through December 23, 2025.
Temperature
Loss of Antarctic sea ice elevates global temperatures, due to albedo loss, which could persist through September 2026, when Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent. This is illustrated by the image below that shows a forecast for September 2026 of very high temperature anomalies around Antarctica and over the Arctic Ocean.
Methane
The methane danger is illustrated by the image below that shows hourly average in situ methane measurements well above 2400 ppb (parts per billion). The image is adapted from an image issued by NOAA December 24, 2025. The image shows methane recorded over the past few years at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.
The methane danger is discussed in many earlier posts such as
this one. Seafloor methane and methane from thawing terrestrial permafrost can add significantly and abruptly to the temperature rise.
The danger of methane hydrates destabilization is further illustrated by the screenshot below.
Climate Emergency DeclarationUN secretary-general António Guterres
recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”
What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a
Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as
this 2022 post and
this one and as discussed in the
Climate Plan group.
Links
