Arctic News: The 2026 El Nino

Monday, February 23, 2026

The 2026 El Nino

Arctic sea ice extent

The image below, adapted from NSIDC, shows Arctic sea ice extent through February 21, 2026, for the months January, February and March.

As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 1.16 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on February 21, 2026 (black), the fourth lowest on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.56σ.

Importantly, we are moving from a La Niña to an El Niño. The above image illustrates the impact of El Niño. The year 2016 was a strong El Niño year and Arctic sea ice extent started to decline strongly in the course of 2016 and extent remained low in early 20017 and early 2018. The El Niño that started to develop in 2023 contributed to the very low sea ice extent in early 2025, while sea ice extent was also lowest on record for the day during early parts of 2026. The blue line is the 2012 extent, which would turn into a record low later that year, a record that still stands today.

[ CO₂ concentration on Feb 22, 2026 ]

What happened in 2012? Let's first look into greenhouse gas concentrations, which are high in the Arctic and causing Arctic temperatures to rise strongly.

As illustrated by the image on the right, surface concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) was as high as 526 ppm on February 22, 2026. The image also shows that CO₂ concentrations are high across the Arctic.

As illustrated by the image below, methane concentrations were as high as 2498 ppb on February 19, 2026. Methane tends to be higher closer to the North Pole, while methane is particularly high at this altitude, unlike CO₂ that has its highest concentrations close to the surface.

High Arctic concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing Arctic temperatures to rise strongly, contributing to decline in Arctic ice and snow cover, and thus resulting in loss of surface albedo (reflectivity), which is a self-amplifying feedback loop that further speeds up the temperature rise in the Arctic.

The strong rise of Arctic temperatures narrows the temperature difference between the Equator and the Arctic, which slows down the speed at which hot air flows from the Equator to the Arctic. This slowdown can hugely distort the Jet Stream and can also contribute to a slowdown of ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which - together with ocean stratification - can contribute to more ocean heat accumulating at the surface and to less lower clouds (albedo loss).

[ Storm over Arctic Ocean, August 2012 ]

Distortion of the Jet Stream can result in more extreme weather such as heatwaves, storms and fires. Fires produce soot that can settle down on the snow and ice cover and darken the surface (albedo loss). Storms can bring huge amounts of warm air into the Arctic. Furthermore, storms can churn sea ice into smaller pieces.

Early August 2012, a storm hit the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image on the right. Smaller pieces of ice melt more rapidly, since more parts become exposed to ocean heat, in contrast to a large flat and solid layer of ice that is also less susceptible to wind.

More light and small pieces of ice will stand out above the water and capture the wind like the sails of yachts. Storms can push these smaller pieces more easily together, decreasing sea ice extent (albedo loss).

Storms can also speed up currents that move the sea ice, potentially all the way out of the Arctic Ocean, where the pieces will melt away rapidly.

Furthermore, storms can cause deeper vertical mixing of the sea water column, causing more heat to penetrate the seabed and resulting in destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments and eruption of huge amounts of methane from hydrates and from free gas held underneath the hydrates.

Latent heat buffer loss - as sea ice, permafrost and glaciers disappear

Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when ice turns into water. During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. As long as there is ice, additional heat will be absorbed by the process of ice turning into water, so the temperature doesn't rise at the surface.

[ from Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more ]

The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows monthly Arctic sea ice volume in the past 25 years. Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. In 2025, Arctic sea ice reached a record low maximum volume as well as a record low minimum volume.

As illustrated by the above image, Arctic sea ice volume in April 2025 was very low, so while relatively little melting took place between April 2025 and September 2025, a record low Arctic sea ice volume was still reached in September 2025. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through mid December 2025, with an analysis of the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum). If the trend in annual maxima (blue circles) continues, Arctic sea ice in 2026 looks set to reach an even lower volume in April 2026. The difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur later in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event could be said to occur when only 1000 km³ or less Arctic sea ice volume remains.

There is a huge danger that seafloor methane and methane from thawing terrestrial permafrost will add strongly and abruptly to the temperature rise, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the screenshot below.

Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean causes Arctic sea ice to lose thickness and thus volume, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. This means that - as sea ice thickness decreases - a lot of incoming ocean heat can no longer be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, and the heat will therefore contribute to higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. The danger of this is described in the screenshot below.

[ screenshot from earlier post ]

The image below shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on February 22, 2026.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.