- Note: This page was started in 2019. Content has been added that was posted mainly from
2018 to 2021, with some content added later. The page is kept 'as is' for archival purposes. -
Tipping Points: definitions and associated terminology (in bold)
A tipping point is a one-off change in conditions. Climate change tipping points can be crossed as the temperature rises and as feedbacks start to kick in with greater ferocity and interact. Crossing a tipping point can cause climate change to suddenly speed up, accelerating the temperature rise and extreme weather events that come with the rise.
The images below illustrate this by showing a ball moving up and down a hill. Using a snowball to depict global warming runs the risk of confusion with global cooling as in 'Snowball Earth', yet the idea of a snowball growing in size as it's rolling down the hill is such a powerful meme, that it may help illustrate our predicament.
In the images below, the change in conditions here is a change in terrain, i.e. a change from sloping up the hill to sloping down the hill, and this change translates in a change in what powers the ball. At first, it took an external force to push the ball up the hill, but once the top of the hill is crossed, gravity alone can suddenly carry the ball downhill much faster.
From facebook, April 15, 2021:
https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10165130972685161?comment_id=10165231262240161
Seismic events and natural cycles can cause the temperature to rise or fall for a short period, but such short-term natural variability can be averaged out over longer periods. Nonetheless, tipping points can also be crossed when several changing conditions coincide to jointly contribute to a temperature rise strong enough to cause feedbacks to kick in with greater and accelerating force. Short-term variables such as El Niño can hit the Arctic particularly hard, which can act as a catalyst that can trigger further tipping points to get crossed.
Several tipping points are associated with Arctic sea ice loss. Arctic sea ice used to absorb 0.8% of global heating (1993-2003). Water with a higher temperature and salt content gets pushed by sea currents under the sea ice and - from below - consumes the sea ice that is hanging underneath the surface in the Arctic Ocean.
There is a point at which incoming ocean heat can no longer be consumed by melting of the sea ice from below, and this is estimated to occur when the ocean temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere reaches 1°C above the 20th century average. This point can be referred to as the latent heat tipping point.
Before this tipping point is reached, heat was consumed by melting the ice without raising the temperature of the water. Once the tipping point gets crossed, the heat will suddenly raise the temperature of the water. The amount of heat that was previously absorbed by melting the ice is enough to raise the temperature of an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.
There is a point at which incoming ocean heat can no longer be consumed by melting of the sea ice from below, and this is estimated to occur when the ocean temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere reaches 1°C above the 20th century average. This point can be referred to as the latent heat tipping point.
Before this tipping point is reached, heat was consumed by melting the ice without raising the temperature of the water. Once the tipping point gets crossed, the heat will suddenly raise the temperature of the water. The amount of heat that was previously absorbed by melting the ice is enough to raise the temperature of an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.
Another feedback is that loss of sea ice causes the water of the Arctic Ocean to heat up, resulting in more heat that can reach the seafloor that contains vast amounts of methane in the form of hydrates and free gas. Heat can penetrate sediments along cracks and passages and cause hydrates to destabilize, resulting in the release of huge amounts of methane. The methane hydrates tipping point when this starts to occur at scale is estimated to be when the ocean temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere reaches 1.35°C above the 20th century average, i.e. after the latent heat tipping point has been crossed.
From facebook, April 15, 2021:
https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10165130972685161?comment_id=10165231262240161
Yet another feedback is that, with the rise in temperature, more water vapor will be present in the atmosphere (at a rate of 7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming). The water vapor feedback works instantly and it further increases the temperature rise, in a number of ways, as follows:
- Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas.
- A recent study found that methane currently persists in the atmosphere longer than before and longer than most climate models estimate. The temperature rise has caused more water vapor to be present in the atmosphere. More water in the atmosphere will absorb more sunlight, thus reducing the ultraviolet light available for the production of hydroxyl. Methane is not breaking down in the atmosphere as fast as before, as less hydroxyl is produced and less methane thus gets broken down by hydroxyl.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28082024/surging-methane-emissions-major-climate-shift
Resetting tropospheric OH and CH4 lifetime with ultraviolet H2O absorption - by Michael Prather et al. https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.adn0415
News release at: https://cpo.noaa.gov/new-discovery-in-atmospheric-chemistry-helps-predict-methanes-role-in-climate-change
To date, models consistently overestimate the amount of hydroxyl (OH), the molecules responsible for breaking down methane, in the atmosphere, leading scientists to calculate that methane will break down faster than it actually does. In the newly discovered reaction, water vapor absorbs ultraviolet light, reducing the availability of sunlight to create OH. This finding helps explain why existing models overestimate OH levels and, consequently, methane’s atmospheric breakdown rate. Discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161571351924679 - At higher temperatures, more evaporation takes place, causing more extreme weather events, such as storms, hurricanes and rainfall. Evaporation can take place in the North Atlantic, while rainfall can take place closer to the Arctic, contributing to the formation of a freshwater lid on top of the ocean that enables more ocean heat to travel underneath this lid from the North Atlantic to the Arctic Ocean, where the heat will increase the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean and the temperature of the atmosphere over the Arctic, both further increasing the water vapor in the atmosphere over the Arctic.
How much extra water vapor currently is in the atmosphere depends on how high the temperature rise is. The current temperature could be more than 2°C above pre-industrial, which implies an increase of 14% in water vapor in the atmosphere.
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| [ from Moistening Atmosphere ] |
The February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, which could be as much as 2.75°C above the pre-industrial temperature. A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere.
As illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA data, surface precipitable water reached a record high of 27.395 kg/m² in July 2024.
From the post at:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/high-feels-like-temperature-forecast.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/high-feels-like-temperature-forecast.html
=============== THE SNOWBALL EFFECT ============
The Snowball Effect
Crossing of tipping points and further events and developments can combine with feedbacks into a "snowball effect" of rapidly rising temperatures.
Feedbacks include changes to the Jet Stream that result in ever more extreme weather events such as storms and forest fires. Such events can cause huge emissions of greenhouse gases.
Temperatures can also be expected to rise over the next few years as sulfate cooling decreases. Aerosols can further cause additional warming if more black carbon and brown carbon gets emitted due to more wood getting burned and more forest fires taking place. Black carbon and brown carbon have a net warming effect and can settle on snow and ice and speed up their decline.
Therefore, the 8°C rise as a result of crossing the Clouds Tipping Point would come on top of the warming due to other elements, and the total rise could be as high as 18°C or 32.4°F from preindustrial, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/06/greenhouse-gas-levels-keep-rising-at-accelerating-rates.html
Acceleration as multiple tipping points get crossed
The snowball effect image (further above) illustrates that as certain tipping points get crossed and as further events and developments take place, this can combine with feedbacks into a snowball effect of rapidly rising temperatures.
The image directly above illustrates the various elements that increase or lower temperatures (pollution, feedbacks, tipping points and further events and developments) and that can cause acceleration of the temperature rise.
The content below further elaborates further, following the numbering of Tipping Points Cascade.
The image directly above illustrates the various elements that increase or lower temperatures (pollution, feedbacks, tipping points and further events and developments) and that can cause acceleration of the temperature rise.
The content below further elaborates further, following the numbering of Tipping Points Cascade.
Crossing the Latent Heat and Methane Hydrate Tipping Points (#2. and #4.)
The image below, updated from an earlier post, shows two such tipping points.
The August 2020 ocean temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere was 1.13°C above the 20th century average. The image shows a trend based on January 1880-August 2020 NOAA data. The latent heat tipping point is estimated to be 1°C above the 20th century average. Crossing the latent heat tipping point threatens to cause the methane hydrates tipping point to be crossed, estimated to be 1.35°C above the 20th century average.
from the post 'Temperatures threaten to become unbearable', at:
While there is at least a theoretical possibility that some changes can be reversed after a tipping gets crossed, this is not the case with the point-of-no-return.
A 2020 study led by Jorgen Randers concludes that the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming, as self-sustained thawing of the permafrost will continue for hundreds of years, even if global society did stop all emissions of man-made greenhouse gases immediately, due to a combination of declining surface albedo (driven by decline of the Arctic snow and ice cover), increasing amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere (driven by higher temperatures), and changes in concentrations of further greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (driven by changes in sinks and sources of carbon dioxide and methane such as thawing permafrost), as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.
Thresholds
There are further thresholds, often based on physics and biology. One such threshold is the wet bulb temperature limit that the human body can endure, as discussed at:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/high-feels-like-temperature-forecast.html
There are further thresholds such as extinction thresholds. Extinction can be caused by biodiversity loss including narrowing of the genetic span due to small or divided population, loss of habitat, invasion by non-native species and introduced diseases, hunting including by humans and predators, etc. An important threshold is the temperature limit. At high temperatures or with a rapid rise in temperature, some species may go extinct, and this in turn can drive into extinction other species that depend - for their own survival - on species that have gone extinct, a phenomenon referred to as co-extinctions. Humans may go extinct with a temperature rise of 3°C, while most if not all species could go extinct with a 5°C rise, a 2019 study found.
Study: Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1Even if all emissions of greenhouse gases by people could magically end right now, there would still be little or no prospect for temperatures to fall over the next few years and, as temperatures keep rising, the odds are rising that some of the many tipping points get crossed soon, such as the 'latent heat tipping point' and 'methane hydrates tipping point'.
One of the reasons for this is that current levels of greenhouse gases are so high that they will keep causing further decline of the snow and ice cover, with associated albedo losses and further warming of oceans, especially the Arctic Ocean.
As discussed, sea ice constitutes a buffer. Sea ice increases in winter due to low seasonal temperatures and, as temperatures start rising in spring, sea ice starts to melt. As the sea ice melts, the energy of the sunlight gets consumed by the meeting process, without increasing the temperature. Once the sea ice has become very thin and quickly melts away, all further energy of the sunlight goes into increasing the temperature. This can be referred to as the latent heat tipping point.
One of the reasons for this is that current levels of greenhouse gases are so high that they will keep causing further decline of the snow and ice cover, with associated albedo losses and further warming of oceans, especially the Arctic Ocean.
As discussed, sea ice constitutes a buffer. Sea ice increases in winter due to low seasonal temperatures and, as temperatures start rising in spring, sea ice starts to melt. As the sea ice melts, the energy of the sunlight gets consumed by the meeting process, without increasing the temperature. Once the sea ice has become very thin and quickly melts away, all further energy of the sunlight goes into increasing the temperature. This can be referred to as the latent heat tipping point.
The image below, updated from an earlier post, shows two such tipping points.
The August 2020 ocean temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere was 1.13°C above the 20th century average. The image shows a trend based on January 1880-August 2020 NOAA data. The latent heat tipping point is estimated to be 1°C above the 20th century average. Crossing the latent heat tipping point threatens to cause the methane hydrates tipping point to be crossed, estimated to be 1.35°C above the 20th century average.
Point of no return
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| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
A 2020 study led by Jorgen Randers concludes that the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming, as self-sustained thawing of the permafrost will continue for hundreds of years, even if global society did stop all emissions of man-made greenhouse gases immediately, due to a combination of declining surface albedo (driven by decline of the Arctic snow and ice cover), increasing amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere (driven by higher temperatures), and changes in concentrations of further greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (driven by changes in sinks and sources of carbon dioxide and methane such as thawing permafrost), as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.
From facebook, April 15, 2021, at:
https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10165130972685161?comment_id=10165231702520161
https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10165130972685161?comment_id=10165231702520161
Such a rise [of up to 18°C] could in turn cause the water vapor tipping point to be crossed, if it hasn't been crossed already, as the study by Randers suggests. A continued rise in water vapor could suffice to push temperatures up further, in a runaway greenhouse process in which evaporation alone could cause a global surface temperature rise of several hundred degrees Celsius.
Thresholds
Crossing tipping points should be avoided, because once crossed, it can become very difficult to revert back to the previous state. Thresholds can be set by politics and/or be based on best-available science. A point of no return is a threshold that must not be crossed, because - once crossed - it is impossible to go back.
The 1.5°C and 2°C thresholds set at the Paris Agreement in 2015 are political thresholds, yet they are based on best available science and constitute thresholds that the world agreed should not be crossed.
The 1.5°C and 2°C thresholds set at the Paris Agreement in 2015 are political thresholds, yet they are based on best available science and constitute thresholds that the world agreed should not be crossed.
There are further thresholds, often based on physics and biology. One such threshold is the wet bulb temperature limit that the human body can endure, as discussed at:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/high-feels-like-temperature-forecast.html
There are further thresholds such as extinction thresholds. Extinction can be caused by biodiversity loss including narrowing of the genetic span due to small or divided population, loss of habitat, invasion by non-native species and introduced diseases, hunting including by humans and predators, etc. An important threshold is the temperature limit. At high temperatures or with a rapid rise in temperature, some species may go extinct, and this in turn can drive into extinction other species that depend - for their own survival - on species that have gone extinct, a phenomenon referred to as co-extinctions. Humans may go extinct with a temperature rise of 3°C, while most if not all species could go extinct with a 5°C rise, a 2019 study found.
Discussed on facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10156903792219679
Tipping Points Cascade
Ten tipping points look set to hit the Arctic hard. Such tipping points can coincide and they are in many ways interrelated, making that the danger is compounded by the domino effect of tipping points hitting one another.
Many tipping points could be crossed soon and many of them look set to hit the Arctic. Elsewhere, tipping points could also be crossed soon, but many could take longer to eventuate:
- high pollution levels combined with short-term variables such as a stronger-than-expected El Niño and further contributors to the temperature rise could act as a tipping point, triggering a rapid and dramatically accelerating temperature rise, in turn causing:
- demise of the submarine Arctic sea ice, i.e. latent heat tipping point +
- demise of the surface Arctic sea ice (BOE) and the associated loss of sea ice albedo,
- destabilization of seafloor methane hydrates, causing eruption of vast amounts of methane that further speed up Arctic warming and cause
- terrestrial permafrost thaw and decline of the terrestrial snow and ice cover, resulting in even more emissions of greenhouse gases,
- as the Jet Stream gets even more deformed, ever more extreme weather events occur, such as storms, torrential rain and flooding, as well as droughts, heatwaves and dry lightning,
- causing forest fires, at first especially in the boreal forests of Siberia and Canada and
- eventually also occurring widespread in peatfields, tundra and tropical rainforests, resulting in
- rapid melting of glaciers such as in the Himalayas, temporarily causing huge flooding,
- followed by collapse of the socio-economic order combined with famine, starvation, water shortage, diseases, heat stress, panic and violence, and
- eventually causing collapse of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, further disruption of wind patterns and ocean currents, even stronger storms and dramatic sea level rise and flooding.
Tipping Points Cascade, from: https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/03/stronger-extinction-alert.html
The above image depicts only one sequence of events, or one scenario out of many. Things may eventuate in different orders and occur simultaneously, i.e. instead of one domino tipping over the next one sequentially, many events may occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. Further events and developments could be added to the list, such as ocean stratification and stronger storms that can push large amounts of warm salty water into the Arctic Ocean.
Loss of Arctic sea ice and loss of Permafrost in Siberia and North America can be regarded both as feedbacks and as tipping points. Loss of Antarctic sea ice and loss of the snow and ice cover on land elsewhere (on Greenland, on Antarctica and on mountaintops such as the Tibetan Plateau) can also be regarded as tipping points. Once the snow and ice cover has disappeared and the ice in the soil has melted, no further heat can be consumed in the process of melting.
Loss of Arctic sea ice and loss of Permafrost in Siberia and North America can be regarded both as feedbacks and as tipping points. Loss of Antarctic sea ice and loss of the snow and ice cover on land elsewhere (on Greenland, on Antarctica and on mountaintops such as the Tibetan Plateau) can also be regarded as tipping points. Once the snow and ice cover has disappeared and the ice in the soil has melted, no further heat can be consumed in the process of melting.
Here are 13 tipping points, some of which have been mentioned earlier:
- Loss of albedo associated with loss of Arctic sea ice
- Loss of Permafrost
- Loss of Antarctic sea ice (loss of albedo, latent heat buffer and emissivity)
- Loss of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets
- Loss of mountaintop glaciers
- The Latent Heat Tipping Point associated with loss of Arctic sea ice (feedback #14)
- The Seafloor Methane Tipping Point (feedback #16)
- The Clouds Tipping Point (also clouds feedback #30)
- The Latent Heat Tipping Point associated with loss of Arctic sea ice (feedback #14)
- The Seafloor Methane Tipping Point (feedback #16)
- The Clouds Tipping Point (also clouds feedback #30)
- The Water Vapor Tipping Point
- The Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point
- The Ocean Surface Tipping Point (fresh water layer reduces ocean alkalinity and thus its ability to take up CO₂, also discussed on facebook)
- The Land Evaporation Tipping Point (also discussed on facebook)
- The Aquatic Deoxygenation Tipping Point (also discussed on facebook)
Many feedbacks and tipping points can be felt more strongly in the Arctic than elsewhere, and the Arctic can change abruptly as numerous feedbacks start kicking in with accelerating ferocity and as associated tipping points get crossed, triggering further changes that can be felt across the world.
- The Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point
- The Ocean Surface Tipping Point (fresh water layer reduces ocean alkalinity and thus its ability to take up CO₂, also discussed on facebook)
- The Land Evaporation Tipping Point (also discussed on facebook)
- The Aquatic Deoxygenation Tipping Point (also discussed on facebook)
Many feedbacks and tipping points can be felt more strongly in the Arctic than elsewhere, and the Arctic can change abruptly as numerous feedbacks start kicking in with accelerating ferocity and as associated tipping points get crossed, triggering further changes that can be felt across the world.
Loss of Carbon Sinks
The temperature could also rise further due to reductions in the carbon sink on land. An earlier post mentions a study that found that the Amazon rainforest is no longer a sink, but has become a source, contributing to warming the planet instead; another study found that soil bacteria release CO₂ that was previously thought to remain trapped by iron; another study found that forest soil carbon does not increase with higher CO₂ levels; another study found that forests' long-term capacity to store carbon is dropping in regions with extreme annual fires; another earlier post discussed the Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point, coined in a study finding that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis, which under business-as-usual emissions would nearly halve the land sink strength by as early as 2040.
This earlier post also discusses how CO₂ and heat taken up by oceans can be reduced. A 2021 study on oceans finds that, with increased stratification, heat from climate warming less effectively penetrates into the deep ocean, which contributes to further surface warming, while it also reduces the capability of the ocean to store carbon, exacerbating global surface warming. A 2022 study finds that ocean uptake of CO₂ from the atmosphere decreases as the Meridional Overturning Circulation slows down. A 2023 study finds that growth of a layer of fresh water decreases its alkalinity and thus its ability to take up CO₂, a feedback referred to as the Ocean Surface Tipping Point.
Loss of Heat Sinks
Oceans, glaciers and sea ice are considered to be heat sinks, as they can consume huge amounts of heat that would otherwise increase the temperature of the atmosphere. Having said that, the amount of heat they can take up can shrink and even disappear, e.g. when sea ice or mountain glaciers have melted away, Earth's energy imbalance will cause the heat previously consumed in the melting process to go elsewhere, i.e. in oceans or the atmosphere.
3. Blue Ocean Event (BOE)
A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) is often defined as Arctic sea ice extent falling below one million square kilometers. A BOE will typically first occur in September. The less sea ice there is, the more the Arctic will heat, so a BOE is often seen as an important threshold, if not a tipping point that, when crossed, will be hard if not impossible to reverse. A BOE could happen soon, depending on weather conditions and further tipping points getting crossed (see above image).
A BOE is also increasingly likely to occur as other conditions that are currently suppressing temperatures, turn into contributors over the next few years.
For more on conditions that could contribute to a rapid temperature rise, see
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| [ image from: 10°C or 18°F warmer by 2021? ] |
Warmer water tends to form a layer at the surface that does not mix well with the water underneath, as discussed in an earlier post and confirmed in a this study. Stratification reduces the capability of oceans to take up heat from the atmosphere, thus speeding up warming of the atmosphere.
Until now, oceans have been taking up 93.4% of the extra heat that is caused by emissions by people. So, even a small decrease in the amount of heat that oceans now take out of the atmosphere would leave much more heat in the atmosphere, thus resulting in a dramatic rise of global air temperatures.
Additionally, greater stratification of oceans results in less growth of phytoplankton and thus in less take up of carbon dioxide in oceans, so more carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere. Furthermore, lower oxygen levels at the top layer of oceans can also increase releases of nitrous oxide. Finally, heating up of oceans increases the danger of eruptions of methane from the seafloor, as discussed above. More greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means that less heat can leave Earth, as it gets trapped by these greenhouse gases, so this is another self-reinforcing feedback loop that further heats up the air, the cryosphere and oceans, as described under feedback 29.
Until now, oceans have been taking up 93.4% of the extra heat that is caused by emissions by people. So, even a small decrease in the amount of heat that oceans now take out of the atmosphere would leave much more heat in the atmosphere, thus resulting in a dramatic rise of global air temperatures.
Additionally, greater stratification of oceans results in less growth of phytoplankton and thus in less take up of carbon dioxide in oceans, so more carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere. Furthermore, lower oxygen levels at the top layer of oceans can also increase releases of nitrous oxide. Finally, heating up of oceans increases the danger of eruptions of methane from the seafloor, as discussed above. More greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means that less heat can leave Earth, as it gets trapped by these greenhouse gases, so this is another self-reinforcing feedback loop that further heats up the air, the cryosphere and oceans, as described under feedback 29.
An earlier analysis warns about growth of a layer of fresh water at the surface of the North Atlantic resulting in more ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean and the atmosphere over the Arctic.
In conclusion, the temperature rise is causing oceans to change, resulting in a rise in greenhouse gas levels, and in more heat remaining in the atmosphere. This could dramatically drive up air temperatures in the lower troposphere, resulting in runaway global warming.3. Blue Ocean Event (BOE)
A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) is often defined as Arctic sea ice extent falling below one million square kilometers. A BOE will typically first occur in September. The less sea ice there is, the more the Arctic will heat, so a BOE is often seen as an important threshold, if not a tipping point that, when crossed, will be hard if not impossible to reverse. A BOE could happen soon, depending on weather conditions and further tipping points getting crossed (see above image).
A BOE is also increasingly likely to occur as other conditions that are currently suppressing temperatures, turn into contributors over the next few years.
from:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10159298217739679/?comment_id=10159299604989679
For more on conditions that could contribute to a rapid temperature rise, see
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/overshoot-or-omnicide.html
6. JET STREAM CHANGES
Jet stream 344 km/h Jan 28, 2016 Off NA coast
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/01/28/0600Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-48.44,49.22,336/loc=-42.827,52.509
Jet Stream 377 km/h March 15, 2019 Pacific
WPD of 215.3 kW/m2
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/03/15/0000Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=139.92,44.64,332/loc=160.000,38.800
Jet stream 430 km/h or 267 mph Dec 27, 2015 NewFoundland
WPD of 338.3 kW/m2 or
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/12/27/0600Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-114.45,47.92,328/loc=-63.500,50.500
earlier version used at:
2015 warmest year on record
for more on WPD (Instantaneous Wind Power Density), see:
http://educypedia.karadimov.info/library/Lesson1_windenergycalc.pdf
from:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/wind.html
7. FIRES, 10. AEROSOLS
keywords:
7. Aerosol warming (biomass burning, fires), 10. Aerosol cooling (sulfate + dust), masking effect
How large is anthropogenic global warming?
Numerous temperature records have fallen across the world recently. Heat stress hazard is high under conditions of high surface air temperature and high relative humidity. When looking at heat stress hazards, it's therefore important to look at surface air temperatures over land, i.e. the temperature of the air above the land surface.
Fire hazard is high under conditions of hot and dry soil and strong wind. When looking at fire hazards, it's therefore important to look at land surface temperatures, reflecting how hot the surface of the Earth would feel to touch in a particular location. The map below shows land surface temperatures.
When calculating how much higher the current temperature is, compared to a pre-industrial base, a number of things must be taken into account:
Yet another question is when the Paris Agreement thresholds can be regarded to be exceeded? When temperatures exceed the threshold for a decade, a year, a month? As an example, August 2018 may be warmer than August 2016, which - by some measures - was 2.3°C warmer than 1980-2015. In such a case, would this be a temporary overshoot of the Paris Agreement thresholds? Is the temperature likely to decrease?
Anthropogenic Global Warming
Remember the Paris Agreement, when politicians pledged to take efforts to ensure that the temperature would not cross 1.5°C above preindustrial? Why did the Paris Agreement not specify a year for preindustrial? Perhaps the idea was that total anthropogenic global warming should not exceed 1.5°C. In other words, the warming that people had already caused by 1750, plus the warming people caused since 1750, plus the warming that is already baked in for the decades to come. The image below illustrates this idea and also shows that we're well above 1.5°C anthropogenic global warming.
In the image below, temperatures have also been adjusted to better reflect a preindustrial baseline (1750), showing that temperatures were not higher than 1°C above preindustrial during the entire Holocene, until recently.
A study led by James Hansen concludes that temperatures also weren't more than 1°C above preindustrial during the previous interglacial, the Eemian, which implies that temperatures haven't been more than 1°C above preindustrial for the entire 200,000 years that modern people, i.e. the species homo sapiens, have existed, and that temperatures have only recently rising to levels more than 1°C above preindustrial. Quite likely, to find temperatures as high as today's, one would have to go back some 3 million years.
from:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/08/will-august-2018-be-the-hottest-month-on-record.html
7. FIRES, OZONE & DRY LIGHTNING, 10. AEROSOLS (sulfates + dust)
The Copernicus image below shows aerosol forecasts for July 4, 2018, 21:00 UTC, due to biomass burning.
Another Copernicus forecast shows high ozone levels over Siberia and the East Siberian Sea.
EPA 8-hour ozone standard is 70 ppb and here's a report on recent U.S. ozone levels. See Wikipedia for more on the strong local and immediate warming impact of ozone and how it also makes vegetation more vulnerable to fires.
from:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/07/can-we-weather-the-danger-zone.html
5. TERRESTRIAL PERMAFROST DECLINE
The right-hand panel of the image below shows the extent of the permafrost on the Northern Hemisphere. The subsea permafrost north of Siberia is prone to melting due to the increasingly higher temperatures of the water. Increasingly high air temperatures are melting the sea ice and, where the sea ice is gone, they are warming up the water directly.
High air temperatures are also warming up the water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the left panel of above image.
On June 15, 2018, it was as warm as 31.5°C or 88.6°F at 06:00 UTC and 31.7°C or 89.1°F at 09:00 UTC over the Kotuy/Khatanga River that ends in the Laptev Sea in the Arctic Ocean (green circle).
On June 20, 2018, it was even warmer, as the image on the right shows. It was as warm as 32.3°C or 90.1°F at 1000 hPa over the Yenisei River that ends in the Kara Sea in the Arctic Ocean (green circle). It was actually even warmer at surface level, but just look at the temperatures on the image over Greenland and the Tibetan Plateau at 1000 hPa. See also this post.
from:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/06/high-temperatures-over-arctic-ocean-in-june-2018.html
1. SSTA, 2. LATENT HEAT, 3. ALBEDO, 4. METHANE HYDRATES
The decline of Arctic sea ice volume over the years is illustrated by the Jim Pettit graph below.
As the Wipneus image below shows, Arctic sea ice volume on July 9, 2018, was at a record low for the time of the year.
The animation on the right shows a fall in volume of some 1 meter over most of the sea ice, over the period from June 21 through July 12, 2018, with a further eight days of forecasts added.
The animation illustrates the huge amount of melting taking place from underneath, due to an inflow of heat from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, and from warm water from rivers that end in the Arctic Ocean. Meanwhile, sea ice extent doesn't fall very much at all.
When only looking at sea ice extent, the dramatic fall in sea ice volume may be overlooked.
Complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice in September 2018 is within the margins of a trend based on yearly annual minimum volume, as illustrated by the image on the right.
Latent heat can make such disappearance come abruptly and - for people who only look at changes in extent - rather unexpectedly.
Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy absorbed by solid ice when it changes into water (melting). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant.
Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface.
The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.
Oceans take up over 90% of global warming, as illustrated by the image below. Ocean currents make that huge amounts of this heat keep entering the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean.
Once the sea ice is gone, further ocean heat must go elsewhere, i.e. it will typically raise the temperature of the water. The atmosphere will also warm up faster. More evaporation will also occur once the sea ice is gone, which will cool the sea surface and warm up the atmosphere (technically know as latent heat of vaporization).
As temperatures in the Arctic are rising faster than at the Equator, the Jet Stream will change, making it easier for warm air to enter the Arctic. More clouds will form over the Arctic, which will reflect more sunlight into space, but which will also make that less outward IR radiation can escape into space over the Arctic, with a net warming effect.
Meanwhile, El Niño is getting stronger, as illustrated by above image on the right. A warmer Arctic comes with stronger heat waves, forest fires and associated emissions, and rapid warming of water in rivers that end in the Arctic Ocean, all of which will further warm up the Arctic Ocean. Forest fires have already been burning strongly in Siberia over the past few months and methane recently reached levels as high as 2817 ppb (on July 8, 2018, pm).
One huge danger is that, as the buffer disappears that until now has consumed huge amounts of ocean heat, and the Arctic Ocean keeps warming, further heat will reach methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing them to get destabilized and release methane.
Additionally, disappearance of the sea ice will come with albedo changes that mean that a lot more sunlight will be absorbed, instead of getting reflected back into space as occurred previously.
Similar albedo changes are likely to take place over land in the Arctic soon thereafter. Adding up all warming elements associated with disappearance of the sea ice can result in an additional global warming of several degrees Celsius.
from:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/07/disappearance-of-arctic-sea-ice.html
6. Jet Stream Changes
As the Arctic warms up faster than the rest of the world, the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator narrows, making the jet stream wavier, thus enabling warm air over the Pacific Arctic to move more easily into the Arctic.
The image on the right shows that, on March 31, 2019, the Arctic was 7.5°C or 13.5°F warmer than 1979-2000.
The earlier forecast below shows a temperature anomaly for the Arctic of 7.6°C or 13.68°F for March 31, 2019, 12:00 UTC and in places 30°C or 54°F warmer. The inset shows the Jet Stream moving higher over the Bering Strait, enabling air that has been strongly warmed up over the Pacific Ocean to move into the Arctic.
A wavier Jet Stream also enables cold air to more easily move out of the Arctic. The inset shows the Jet Stream dipping down over North America where temperatures lower than were usual were recorded.
The later forecast below shows a temperature anomaly for the Arctic of 7.7°C or 13.86°F for March 31, 2019, 12:00 UTC.
1. El Niño
The image below shows that El Niño can be expected to push temperatures up higher in 2019 during the Arctic sea ice retreat.
A warmer sea surface can cause winds to grow dramatically stronger, and they can push warm, moist air into the Arctic, while they can also speed up sea currents that carry warm, salty water into the Arctic Ocean.
Rivers can also carry huge amounts of warm water from North America and Siberia into the Arctic Ocean, as these areas are getting hit by ever stronger heatwaves that are hitting the Arctic earlier in the year.
With Arctic sea ice at a low, it won't be able to act as a buffer to absorb heat for long, with the danger that an influx of warm, salty water will reach the seafloor and trigger methane eruptions.
As warmer water keeps flowing into the Arctic Ocean and as air temperatures in the Arctic are now starting to rise on the back of a strengthening El Niño, fears for a Blue Ocean Event in 2019 are rising, which would further accelerate the temperature rise as less sunlight gets reflected back into space.
from:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/03/arctic-warming-up-fast.html
6. JET STREAM CHANGES
Jet stream 344 km/h Jan 28, 2016 Off NA coast
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/01/28/0600Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-48.44,49.22,336/loc=-42.827,52.509
Jet Stream 377 km/h March 15, 2019 Pacific
WPD of 215.3 kW/m2
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/03/15/0000Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=139.92,44.64,332/loc=160.000,38.800
Jet stream 430 km/h or 267 mph Dec 27, 2015 NewFoundland
WPD of 338.3 kW/m2 or
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/12/27/0600Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-114.45,47.92,328/loc=-63.500,50.500
earlier version used at:
2015 warmest year on record
for more on WPD (Instantaneous Wind Power Density), see:
http://educypedia.karadimov.info/library/Lesson1_windenergycalc.pdf
from:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/wind.html
7. FIRES, 10. AEROSOLS
keywords:
7. Aerosol warming (biomass burning, fires), 10. Aerosol cooling (sulfate + dust), masking effect
How large is anthropogenic global warming?
Numerous temperature records have fallen across the world recently. Heat stress hazard is high under conditions of high surface air temperature and high relative humidity. When looking at heat stress hazards, it's therefore important to look at surface air temperatures over land, i.e. the temperature of the air above the land surface.
Fire hazard is high under conditions of hot and dry soil and strong wind. When looking at fire hazards, it's therefore important to look at land surface temperatures, reflecting how hot the surface of the Earth would feel to touch in a particular location. The map below shows land surface temperatures.
- Base
One question is what base is used from which temperature anomalies are calculated, i.e. a reference point in time (such as a year or a specific day) or period in the past. When the term baseline is used, the average over a period is typically used as reference. When calculating daily anomalies, the average for that day during the reference period is typically used as the base. In the image at the top, the base is 1980-2015, which is a very recent period. When using a pre-industrial base, anomalies could be more than 0.6°C higher than when using the 1951-1980 baseline that NASA normally uses, i.e. NASA's default base.
Another question is how the temperature at the base is calculated. The points 2 and 3 below illustrate that different methods can lead to different results.
- Surface temperatures or surface air temperatures?
Above map shows land surface temperatures. As said above, this is different from surface air temperatures over land that show the temperature of the air above the land surface.
Similarly, sea surface temperatures indicate the temperature of the water at the surface. Sea surface air temperatures, on the other hand, are slightly higher, they are measurements of the air temperature just above the surface of the water.
NASA typically uses surface air temperatures over land, while using surface water temperatures over oceans. When instead using air temperatures globally, the temperature anomaly could be more than 0.1°C higher.
- Missing data
How are missing data dealt with? To calculate the global mean on maps, NASA uses four zonal regions (90-24ºS, 24-0ºS, 0-24ºN, and 24-90ºN) and fills gaps in a region by the mean over the available data in that region. In datasets, however, missing data are typically ignored. This could make a difference of 0.2°C. Ignoring data for the Arctic alone could make a difference of 0.1°C.
Yet another question is when the Paris Agreement thresholds can be regarded to be exceeded? When temperatures exceed the threshold for a decade, a year, a month? As an example, August 2018 may be warmer than August 2016, which - by some measures - was 2.3°C warmer than 1980-2015. In such a case, would this be a temporary overshoot of the Paris Agreement thresholds? Is the temperature likely to decrease?
Anthropogenic Global Warming
Remember the Paris Agreement, when politicians pledged to take efforts to ensure that the temperature would not cross 1.5°C above preindustrial? Why did the Paris Agreement not specify a year for preindustrial? Perhaps the idea was that total anthropogenic global warming should not exceed 1.5°C. In other words, the warming that people had already caused by 1750, plus the warming people caused since 1750, plus the warming that is already baked in for the decades to come. The image below illustrates this idea and also shows that we're well above 1.5°C anthropogenic global warming.
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| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
A study led by James Hansen concludes that temperatures also weren't more than 1°C above preindustrial during the previous interglacial, the Eemian, which implies that temperatures haven't been more than 1°C above preindustrial for the entire 200,000 years that modern people, i.e. the species homo sapiens, have existed, and that temperatures have only recently rising to levels more than 1°C above preindustrial. Quite likely, to find temperatures as high as today's, one would have to go back some 3 million years.
[Editorial note:] The two above images and the above paragraphs are from a page written in 2018 to show that temperatures weren't higher than 1°C above preindustrial during the entire Holocene. As discussed later (in 2021), it is more likely that the global temperature didn't fall during the past thousands years, but instead kept rising steadily during the past thousands years (see: pre-industrial).
Fires over North America, August 2018
Fires can significantly influence temperatures in a number of ways. The images below show how fires boosted carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and sulfur dioxide levels on August 19, 2018. Carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide both raise temperatures. On the other hand, sulfur dioxide lowers temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space.
The image below illustrates to what extent smoke from fires boosted black carbon in the air over North America on August 23, 2018. Black carbon causes both cooling and warming. Black carbon shades the surface, somewhat cooling the surface of land and water, while it also absorbs heat, thus warming the air above the surface. Furthermore, black carbon causes warming by darkening the surface once it settles down. Studies have calculated that black carbon has a total net global warming effect of more than 1.1 W/m².
Dust and further aerosols
The impact of aerosols such as sulfur dioxide and dust is often overlooked. The image below shows that τ, i.e. light at 550 nm as a measurement of aerosol optical thickness due to dust aerosols, was as high as 4.0641 on June 16, 2018.
Dust is one reason why temperatures didn't cross the 1°C above preindustrial mark during the peak of the recent Milankovitch cycle. A recent study calculates that the global annual mean surface temperature increases by 0.3°C for the mid-Holocene (6 ka), if the dust is completely removed.
Most dust appears to originate from the Sahara Desert, which lost its vegetation during the Holocene due to goats, according to this study, as people removed predators such as lions and tigers. As the Sahara lost its vegetation, the surface became more reflective, while dust further made that temperatures didn't rise as much as they otherwise would have.
Deforestation has caused a lot of carbon dioxide to be added during preindustrial times, and there is also the impact of black carbon aerosols, resulting from biomass and fossil fuel burning, which causes some 1.1W/m² warming today and some 0.2W/m² is coming from preindustrial activities.
In conclusion, temperatures would be a lot lower in the absence of human activities, while total anthropogenic global warming over the past few thousand years is much larger than most people think.
Fires over North America, August 2018
Fires can significantly influence temperatures in a number of ways. The images below show how fires boosted carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and sulfur dioxide levels on August 19, 2018. Carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide both raise temperatures. On the other hand, sulfur dioxide lowers temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space.
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|
Dust and further aerosols
The impact of aerosols such as sulfur dioxide and dust is often overlooked. The image below shows that τ, i.e. light at 550 nm as a measurement of aerosol optical thickness due to dust aerosols, was as high as 4.0641 on June 16, 2018.
 |
| [ goats, from Wikipedia ] |
Most dust appears to originate from the Sahara Desert, which lost its vegetation during the Holocene due to goats, according to this study, as people removed predators such as lions and tigers. As the Sahara lost its vegetation, the surface became more reflective, while dust further made that temperatures didn't rise as much as they otherwise would have.
Deforestation has caused a lot of carbon dioxide to be added during preindustrial times, and there is also the impact of black carbon aerosols, resulting from biomass and fossil fuel burning, which causes some 1.1W/m² warming today and some 0.2W/m² is coming from preindustrial activities.
In conclusion, temperatures would be a lot lower in the absence of human activities, while total anthropogenic global warming over the past few thousand years is much larger than most people think.
from:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/08/will-august-2018-be-the-hottest-month-on-record.html
7. FIRES, OZONE & DRY LIGHTNING, 10. AEROSOLS (sulfates + dust)
The Copernicus image below shows aerosol forecasts for July 4, 2018, 21:00 UTC, due to biomass burning.
Another Copernicus forecast shows high ozone levels over Siberia and the East Siberian Sea.
from:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/07/can-we-weather-the-danger-zone.html
5. TERRESTRIAL PERMAFROST DECLINE
The right-hand panel of the image below shows the extent of the permafrost on the Northern Hemisphere. The subsea permafrost north of Siberia is prone to melting due to the increasingly higher temperatures of the water. Increasingly high air temperatures are melting the sea ice and, where the sea ice is gone, they are warming up the water directly.
On June 15, 2018, it was as warm as 31.5°C or 88.6°F at 06:00 UTC and 31.7°C or 89.1°F at 09:00 UTC over the Kotuy/Khatanga River that ends in the Laptev Sea in the Arctic Ocean (green circle).
On June 20, 2018, it was even warmer, as the image on the right shows. It was as warm as 32.3°C or 90.1°F at 1000 hPa over the Yenisei River that ends in the Kara Sea in the Arctic Ocean (green circle). It was actually even warmer at surface level, but just look at the temperatures on the image over Greenland and the Tibetan Plateau at 1000 hPa. See also this post.
from:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/06/high-temperatures-over-arctic-ocean-in-june-2018.html
1. SSTA, 2. LATENT HEAT, 3. ALBEDO, 4. METHANE HYDRATES
The image on the right shows sea surface temperatures on July 6 for the years 2014 to 2018 at a location near Svalbard (at 77.958°N, 5.545°E), with an exponential trend added based on the data.
The combination image below shows sea surface temperatures on July 6 for each of these years, with the location highlighted by a green circle:
2014: -0.8°C or 30.6°F
2015: 6.2°C or 43.2°F
2016: 8.3°C or 47.0°F
2017: 14.4°C or 57.9°F
2018: 16.6°C or 61.9°F
The situation reflects the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice over the years and constitutes a stark warning of imminent sea ice collapse and its consequences for the world at large.
The image on the right shows the sea surface temperature on July 18, 2018, at that location. It was as warm as 17.2°C or 63°F near Svalbard. This compares to a sea surface temperature of 5°C or 41.1°F in 1981-2011 at that location (at the green circle). For more background on the warm water near Svalbard, also see the earlier post Accelerating Warming of the Arctic Ocean.
The images illustrate why sea ice has fallen dramatically in volume, especially so where sea currents push warm water from the Atlantic Ocean underneath the sea ice.
The combination image below shows sea surface temperatures on July 6 for each of these years, with the location highlighted by a green circle:
2014: -0.8°C or 30.6°F
2015: 6.2°C or 43.2°F
2016: 8.3°C or 47.0°F
2017: 14.4°C or 57.9°F
2018: 16.6°C or 61.9°F
The situation reflects the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice over the years and constitutes a stark warning of imminent sea ice collapse and its consequences for the world at large.
 |
| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
The image on the right shows the sea surface temperature on July 18, 2018, at that location. It was as warm as 17.2°C or 63°F near Svalbard. This compares to a sea surface temperature of 5°C or 41.1°F in 1981-2011 at that location (at the green circle). For more background on the warm water near Svalbard, also see the earlier post Accelerating Warming of the Arctic Ocean.The images illustrate why sea ice has fallen dramatically in volume, especially so where sea currents push warm water from the Atlantic Ocean underneath the sea ice.
The decline of Arctic sea ice volume over the years is illustrated by the Jim Pettit graph below.
As the Wipneus image below shows, Arctic sea ice volume on July 9, 2018, was at a record low for the time of the year.
 |
The animation illustrates the huge amount of melting taking place from underneath, due to an inflow of heat from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, and from warm water from rivers that end in the Arctic Ocean. Meanwhile, sea ice extent doesn't fall very much at all.
When only looking at sea ice extent, the dramatic fall in sea ice volume may be overlooked.
Complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice in September 2018 is within the margins of a trend based on yearly annual minimum volume, as illustrated by the image on the right.
Latent heat can make such disappearance come abruptly and - for people who only look at changes in extent - rather unexpectedly.
Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy absorbed by solid ice when it changes into water (melting). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant.
Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface.
The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.
Oceans take up over 90% of global warming, as illustrated by the image below. Ocean currents make that huge amounts of this heat keep entering the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean.
Once the sea ice is gone, further ocean heat must go elsewhere, i.e. it will typically raise the temperature of the water. The atmosphere will also warm up faster. More evaporation will also occur once the sea ice is gone, which will cool the sea surface and warm up the atmosphere (technically know as latent heat of vaporization).As temperatures in the Arctic are rising faster than at the Equator, the Jet Stream will change, making it easier for warm air to enter the Arctic. More clouds will form over the Arctic, which will reflect more sunlight into space, but which will also make that less outward IR radiation can escape into space over the Arctic, with a net warming effect.
Meanwhile, El Niño is getting stronger, as illustrated by above image on the right. A warmer Arctic comes with stronger heat waves, forest fires and associated emissions, and rapid warming of water in rivers that end in the Arctic Ocean, all of which will further warm up the Arctic Ocean. Forest fires have already been burning strongly in Siberia over the past few months and methane recently reached levels as high as 2817 ppb (on July 8, 2018, pm).
One huge danger is that, as the buffer disappears that until now has consumed huge amounts of ocean heat, and the Arctic Ocean keeps warming, further heat will reach methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing them to get destabilized and release methane.
 |
| [ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ] |
Similar albedo changes are likely to take place over land in the Arctic soon thereafter. Adding up all warming elements associated with disappearance of the sea ice can result in an additional global warming of several degrees Celsius.
from:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/07/disappearance-of-arctic-sea-ice.html
4. METHANE HYDRATES
4. Methane hydrates
With sea ice at a low, it won't be able to act as a buffer to absorb heat for long. One danger is that, as more heat arrives in the Arctic and as the sea ice melts away, the sea ice will no longer be able to act as a buffer absorbing ocean heat any longer, and ocean heat will instead reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.
From:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/01/accelerating-growth-of-carbon-dioxide-in-the-atmosphere.html
1. SSTA, 4. METHANE, 5. TERRESTRIAL PERMAFROST
As illustrated by above image, the sea surface near Svalbard was 22°C or 69.2°F at the green circle, near Svalbard, on August 13, 2018, 16.4°C or 29.5°F warmer than 1981-2011.
This high sea surface temperature is an indicator of the temperature of the water below the surface, which in turn is an indicator of the amount of ocean heat that is entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean.
Ocean heat is carried by the Gulf Stream from the North American coast toward the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the images below and on the right.
Warming of the Arctic Ocean comes with a number of feedbacks that accelerate this warming, such as albedo changes that take place as the Arctic snow and ice cover declines, and methane that is released from sediments containing methane in the form of hydrates and free gas.
The situation could get worse rapidly. As an example, with a decrease in cooling aerosols, which are concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic looks set to absorb more heat. A recent study calculated that the North Atlantic’s share of the uptake could increase from 6% to about 27%.
As another example, a recent study concludes: Existing models currently attribute about 20% of the permafrost carbon feedback this century to methane, with the rest due to carbon dioxide from terrestrial soils. By including thermokarst lakes, methane becomes the dominant driver, responsible for 70% to 80% of permafrost carbon-caused warming this century. Adding thermokarst methane to the models makes the feedback’s effect similar to that of land-use change, which is the second-largest source of manmade warming.
from:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/08/peaks-matter.html
2. Arctic sea ice decline, Latent Heat, 3. ALBEDO, 4. Methane Hydrates, 6. JET STREAM
The once-thickest Arctic sea ice has gone
The image below shows Arctic sea ice north of Greenland and around Ellesmere Island. This is the area where for thousands of years the sea ice has been the thickest, in many places remaining thicker than 5 meters (16.4 ft) throughout the year.
The image is a compilation of NASA Worldview images over seven days, from August 14 through to August 21, 2018. The least cloudy areas have been selected from each image to get the best insight in the magnitude of this catastrophe.
2. Arctic sea ice Buffer Loss
The loss of this sea ice indicates that the buffer is gone. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at the freezing point of water, about zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface.
Once the buffer is gone, further energy that enters the Arctic Ocean will go into heating up the water. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.
3. Arctic sea ice albedo loss
At the same time, decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic causes more sunlight to get reflected back into space, resulting in more energy getting absorbed in the Arctic Ocean.
Numerous feedbacks are associated with sea ice loss. As the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Equator decreases, changes are taking pace to the Jet Stream that in turn trigger a multitude of further feedbacks, such as more extreme weather and a more scope for heat to enter the Arctic Ocean (see feedbacks page).
4. Methane Hydrates
A further huge danger is that, as warming of the Arctic Ocean continues, heat will reach methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing them to get destabilized and release methane.
Adding up all warming elements associated with disappearance of the sea ice could result in additional global warming many times as much as the current global warming, all in a few years time.
From:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/08/the-once-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-has-gone.html
1. El Niño, 6. JET STREAM
Accelerating Arctic Warming
The Arctic warms up faster than the rest of the world, due to multiple self-reinforcing feedback loops such as Albedo loss. With each decline of the Arctic sea ice, less sunlight gets reflected back into space. Instead, this sunlight will be absorbed in the Arctic, thus speeding up warming there, which causes Arctic sea ice to decline even further, in a vicious cycle that accelerates warming in the Arctic.
3. Arctic sea ice decline - Albedo
On March 30, 2019, Arctic sea ice extent was 13.42 million km², a record low for the measurements at ads.nipr.ac.jp for the time of year.
4. Methane hydrates
With sea ice at a low, it won't be able to act as a buffer to absorb heat for long. One danger is that, as more heat arrives in the Arctic and as the sea ice melts away, the sea ice will no longer be able to act as a buffer absorbing ocean heat any longer, and ocean heat will instead reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.
|
| [ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ] |
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/01/accelerating-growth-of-carbon-dioxide-in-the-atmosphere.html
1. SSTA, 4. METHANE, 5. TERRESTRIAL PERMAFROST
As illustrated by above image, the sea surface near Svalbard was 22°C or 69.2°F at the green circle, near Svalbard, on August 13, 2018, 16.4°C or 29.5°F warmer than 1981-2011.
This high sea surface temperature is an indicator of the temperature of the water below the surface, which in turn is an indicator of the amount of ocean heat that is entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean. Ocean heat is carried by the Gulf Stream from the North American coast toward the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the images below and on the right.
Warming of the Arctic Ocean comes with a number of feedbacks that accelerate this warming, such as albedo changes that take place as the Arctic snow and ice cover declines, and methane that is released from sediments containing methane in the form of hydrates and free gas.
The situation could get worse rapidly. As an example, with a decrease in cooling aerosols, which are concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic looks set to absorb more heat. A recent study calculated that the North Atlantic’s share of the uptake could increase from 6% to about 27%.
As another example, a recent study concludes: Existing models currently attribute about 20% of the permafrost carbon feedback this century to methane, with the rest due to carbon dioxide from terrestrial soils. By including thermokarst lakes, methane becomes the dominant driver, responsible for 70% to 80% of permafrost carbon-caused warming this century. Adding thermokarst methane to the models makes the feedback’s effect similar to that of land-use change, which is the second-largest source of manmade warming.
from:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/08/peaks-matter.html
2. Arctic sea ice decline, Latent Heat, 3. ALBEDO, 4. Methane Hydrates, 6. JET STREAM
The once-thickest Arctic sea ice has gone
The image below shows Arctic sea ice north of Greenland and around Ellesmere Island. This is the area where for thousands of years the sea ice has been the thickest, in many places remaining thicker than 5 meters (16.4 ft) throughout the year.
 |
| [ The once-thickest sea ice has gone - click on images to enlarge ] |
2. Arctic sea ice Buffer Loss
The loss of this sea ice indicates that the buffer is gone. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at the freezing point of water, about zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface.
Once the buffer is gone, further energy that enters the Arctic Ocean will go into heating up the water. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.
|
| [ The Latent Heat Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ] |
3. Arctic sea ice albedo loss
At the same time, decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic causes more sunlight to get reflected back into space, resulting in more energy getting absorbed in the Arctic Ocean.
|
| [ Albedo Change, feedback #1 on the Feedbacks page ] |
Numerous feedbacks are associated with sea ice loss. As the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Equator decreases, changes are taking pace to the Jet Stream that in turn trigger a multitude of further feedbacks, such as more extreme weather and a more scope for heat to enter the Arctic Ocean (see feedbacks page).
4. Methane Hydrates
A further huge danger is that, as warming of the Arctic Ocean continues, heat will reach methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing them to get destabilized and release methane.
|
| [ Seafloor methane, feedback #2 on the Feedbacks page ] |
From:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/08/the-once-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-has-gone.html
1. El Niño, 6. JET STREAM
Accelerating Arctic Warming
The Arctic warms up faster than the rest of the world, due to multiple self-reinforcing feedback loops such as Albedo loss. With each decline of the Arctic sea ice, less sunlight gets reflected back into space. Instead, this sunlight will be absorbed in the Arctic, thus speeding up warming there, which causes Arctic sea ice to decline even further, in a vicious cycle that accelerates warming in the Arctic.
3. Arctic sea ice decline - Albedo
On March 30, 2019, Arctic sea ice extent was 13.42 million km², a record low for the measurements at ads.nipr.ac.jp for the time of year.
 |
[ click on images to enlarge ] |
As the Arctic warms up faster than the rest of the world, the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator narrows, making the jet stream wavier, thus enabling warm air over the Pacific Arctic to move more easily into the Arctic.
The image on the right shows that, on March 31, 2019, the Arctic was 7.5°C or 13.5°F warmer than 1979-2000.
The earlier forecast below shows a temperature anomaly for the Arctic of 7.6°C or 13.68°F for March 31, 2019, 12:00 UTC and in places 30°C or 54°F warmer. The inset shows the Jet Stream moving higher over the Bering Strait, enabling air that has been strongly warmed up over the Pacific Ocean to move into the Arctic.
A wavier Jet Stream also enables cold air to more easily move out of the Arctic. The inset shows the Jet Stream dipping down over North America where temperatures lower than were usual were recorded.
The later forecast below shows a temperature anomaly for the Arctic of 7.7°C or 13.86°F for March 31, 2019, 12:00 UTC.
1. El Niño
The image below shows that El Niño can be expected to push temperatures up higher in 2019 during the Arctic sea ice retreat.
A warmer sea surface can cause winds to grow dramatically stronger, and they can push warm, moist air into the Arctic, while they can also speed up sea currents that carry warm, salty water into the Arctic Ocean.Rivers can also carry huge amounts of warm water from North America and Siberia into the Arctic Ocean, as these areas are getting hit by ever stronger heatwaves that are hitting the Arctic earlier in the year.
With Arctic sea ice at a low, it won't be able to act as a buffer to absorb heat for long, with the danger that an influx of warm, salty water will reach the seafloor and trigger methane eruptions.
As warmer water keeps flowing into the Arctic Ocean and as air temperatures in the Arctic are now starting to rise on the back of a strengthening El Niño, fears for a Blue Ocean Event in 2019 are rising, which would further accelerate the temperature rise as less sunlight gets reflected back into space.
from:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/03/arctic-warming-up-fast.html
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