Friday, April 14, 2023

Temperatures rising fast March 2023

Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly

Temperatures have been rising fast in March 2023. The image below shows the Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly up to March 2023, with two trends added. The blue trend, based on Jan.1850-Mar.2023 NOAA data, points at a 3°C rise in 2032. The magenta trend, based on Oct.2010-Mar.2023 NOAA data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, and illustrates how they could trigger a rise of more than 5°C in 2026. Anomalies are versus 1901-2000 (not versus pre-industrial). 


Could it be possible for the temperature to keep following the magenta trend? Let's have a look at how dire the situation is.

Greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising

Reducing emissions is the right thing to do, even though it comes with loss of the aerosol masking effect, a loss that causes a rise in temperatures, as discussed in an earlier post. Yet, despite pledges by politicians, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere keep rising, as discussed earlier, such as in this post.
The above image illustrates that carbon dioxide (CO₂) was at a record high at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, in three ways: 
  • Daily Record: CO₂ was 424.83 ppm on April 17, 2023;
  • Weekly Record: Average CO₂ was 422.88 ppm for the week beginning April 9, 2023; and
  • Monthly Record: CO₂ in March 2023 was 421 ppm.
CO₂ typically reaches its annual high in May or June, so these records can be expected to be broken over the next few months. 
[ from earlier post ]

Crucially, methane emissions should be cut. The Clouds Tipping Point, at 1200 ppm CO₂e, could be crossed as early as in 2027 due to forcing caused by the rise in methane alone, and crossing this tipping point on its own could result in a further rise of 8°C. When further forcing than the forcing just from methane is taken into account, this could happen even earlier than in 2027.

El Niño and further variables

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Meanwhile, we're moving into an El Niño, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA.

Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the images below, adapted from NOAA.

NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch, and the range of possibilities toward the end of the year includes a strong El Niño (4 in 10 chance of Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C) to no El Niño (1 in 10 chance).


As illustrated by the image below, the difference in temperature between November 2022 and March 2023 already is about half a degree Celsius and we are not even in an El Niño yet.


El Niño is expected to reach its full strength within a few years, with a maximum possible in 2026.

Furthermore, sunspots look set to reach a high maximum within years, and the 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post.

Ocean heat, feedbacks and tipping points

This year (2023), the sea surface temperature (60°S-60°N) has already been above 21°C for 27 days. Such temperatures are unprecedented in the NOAA record that goes back to 1981. The image below shows the difference between all those years. The black line (2023) is as much as 0.3°C hotter than the orange line (2022), and we're only just entering the upcoming El Niño. 


Vast amounts of ocean heat are moving toward the Arctic this year. With further melting of sea ice and thawing of permafrost, the Arctic Ocean can be expected to receive more and more heat over the next few years, i.e. more heat from direct sunlight, more heat from rivers, more heat from heatwaves and more ocean heat from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

Last year, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September. Rising temperatures threaten to trigger massive loss of sea ice (and loss of albedo) and eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post, in this post and in this post.

[ from earlier post ]

The above image illustrates the danger of two tipping points getting crossed, i.e. the Latent Heat Tipping Point and the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point.

Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page
[ see the Extinction page ]
This threatens to cause rapid destabilization of methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean leading to explosive eruptions of methane, as its volume increases 160 to 180-fold when leaving the hydrates, as illustrated by the above image.

Conclusion

A huge temperature rise thus threatens to unfold over the next few years, as illustrated by the image on the right. Altogether, the rise from pre-industrial to 2026 could be more than 18.44°C by 2026.

Meanwhile, humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post. 

This situation calls for urgent action. Reducing emissions alone won't be enough. Carbon also needs to be removed from the atmosphere and oceans, through re-/afforestation, through pyrolysis of biowaste with the resulting biochar (and nutrients) returned to the soil and further methods. Even with a rapid transition to clean, renewable energy, with changes to food, land use, construction and waste management, and with removal of large amounts of carbon from the atmosphere and oceans, still more action is needed.


Marine Cloud Brightening is a good idea, while many further methods may first need more surplus clean energy to be available and/or require more R&D.

Whether action will happen successfully and rapidly enough is indeed a good question, but that question shouldn't be used as an excuse to delay such action, since taking such action simply is the right thing to do.

Accordingly, everyone is encouraged to support and share this Climate Emergency Declaration. 

[ image from Climate Emergency Declaration ]




Links

• NOAA - Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly 
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/nhem/land/all/3/1850-2023

• NOAA - Recent Daily Average Mauna Loa CO2

• NOAA - Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily

• Sea surface temperature at record high
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html

• Dire situation gets even more dire

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO Discussion

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html


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Tuesday, April 4, 2023

IPCC keeps downplaying the danger even as reality strikes

Record hot sea surface


The daily sea surface temperature (SST) between 60°South and 60°North was at a record high on April 2, 2023, i.e. the highest temperature in the NOAA record that started in 1981, as illustrated by the above image. The black line shows this year's SST, up to April 2, 2023. The orange line shows last year's SST, i.e. 2022. The thicker grey line shows SST in the year 2020, when annual temperatures on land and ocean reached a record high, since 2020 was an El Niño year. 

This record high sea surface temperature comes as we're moving into a new El Niño, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA.

There are further reasons why this uptick doesn't come unexpected. The emerging El Niño looks set to coincide with high sunspots, while the 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post. 

Greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising

Reducing emissions is the right thing to do, even though it comes with loss of the aerosol masking effect that causes a rise in temperatures, as discussed in an earlier post. Moreover, greenhouse gas levels aren't falling.

Global monthly nitrous oxide rose to 336.33 ppb in December 2022, as illustrated by the image on the right. A recent study found that atmospheric abundances and emissions of five CFCs (CFC-13, CFC-112a, CFC-113a, CFC-114a and CFC-115) increased between 2010 and 2020.

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) broke three records recently at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image on the right. 

The daily mean (green points) rose to 423.23 ppm (parts per million) on April 12, 2023, a record high in the NOAA record for in situ measurements. The weekly mean CO₂ (red lines) was 422.54 ppm in the week that started April 2, 2023, and the monthly mean CO₂ (blue lines) was 421.00 ppm in March 2023.

Furthermore, CO₂ was as high as about 424.5 ppm in a flask measurement at Mauna Loa, Hawaii recently, as illustrated by the image on the right.

Monthly methane recently rose to above 1950 ppb at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image on the right underneath.

Globally, methane rose to 1924.99 ppb in December 2022, the highest in the NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane record that goes back to July 1983.

The image below has a polynomial trend added based on April 2018 to December 2022 NOAA global methane data and pointing at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027.

The Clouds Tipping Point, at 1200 ppm CO₂e, could be crossed and this on its own could result in a further rise of 8°C. This tipping point could be crossed as early as in 2027 due to forcing caused by the rise in methane alone. When further forcing is taken into account, this could happen even earlier than in 2027.


NOAA's 1924.99 ppb for the December 2022 global methane mean translates into 385 ppm CO₂e when using a 1-year GWP of 200 for methane.

So, adding this 385 ppm CO₂e to 424.5 ppm CO₂ would leave just 390.5 ppm CO₂e for further forcing, before the Clouds Tipping Point would get crossed, as the image on the right illustrates.

Methane at higher altitude can reach even higher levels than NOAA's global marine surface data. As the image further above shows, monthly methane recently rose to above 1950 ppb at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Further changes such as caused by sea ice loss and changes in aerosols can also speed up the temperature rise.

[ see the Extinction page ]
Vast amounts of ocean heat are headed to invade the Arctic. Last year, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September. The continuing rise of ocean heat threatens to trigger massive loss of sea ice and eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post and in this post. 

All this is pushing up temperatures and will likely keep pushing up temperatures even further over the next few years. To say that the situation is dangerous is a vast understatement.

Politicians keep downplaying the danger

Meanwhile, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is reading the Synthesis Report of its 6th Assessment Report line by line, asking for approval from politicians who seek to downplay such dangers. "There are multiple, feasible and effective options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to human-caused climate change, and they are available now" says the IPCC in an earlier news release with the title Urgent climate action can secure a liveable future for all.

The IPCC was created in 1988 by politicians and set up under the UNEP and WMO to provide politicians with the best-available scientific analysis on climate change. Yet, emissions have kept rising ever since, even accelerating, and the situation has continued to become ever more dire. 

Let's face it, the IPCC is an instrument used by politicians to keep downplaying the danger, even as reality strikes it in the face as to how dire the situation is. Politicians control the IPCC and politicians have proven to be prone to make deals in which they sell out climate action. Politicians have forfeited their chance to influence the process.

Climate action flowchart

In conclusion, politicians should be kept as much as possible out of the climate picture. We, the people, should support communities seeking effective climate action. Below is a flowchart showing how climate action can be achieved without politicians.

[ click on images to enlarge ]


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Sea surface temperature at record high

• Global increase of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons from 2010 to 2020 - by Luke Western et al. 

• NOAA - greenhouse gases at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 

• NOAA - Recent Daily Average Mauna Loa CO2
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

• NOAA - global methane 
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Saturday, March 18, 2023

Sea surface temperature at record high


As the above image shows, the daily sea surface temperature between 60°South and 60°North reached a record high level on March 31, 2023, i.e. the highest temperature in the NOAA record that started in 1981. 

This record high sea surface temperature comes as we're moving into an El Niño, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA.

Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.


Furthermore, sunspots look set to reach a high maximum within years, and the 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post. 

Even more dangerous than high global sea surface temperatures are sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, which have been at a record high for the time of year for some time, climbing to well above 20°C on March 29, 2023, as illustrated by the image below.


Vast amounts of heat moves from the North Atlantic into the Arctic. Around this time of year, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are at their annual low, in line with changes in the seasons. Last year, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September. 


On March 15, 2023, sea surface temperatures off the east coast of North America were as much as 13.8°C or 24.8°F higher than 1981-2011, as illustrated by the above image. Sea surface temperature anomalies are also high in the Pacific, reflecting an upcoming El Niño. All this spells bad news for Arctic sea ice, which typically reaches its lowest extent in September. 


The above Argo float compilation image illustrates the danger that a cold freshwater lid is forming on top of the North Atlantic.

[ Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic (2020) ]
Stronger winds along the path of the Gulf Stream can at times speed up sea currents that travel underneath this cold freshwater lid over the North Atlantic. As a result, huge amounts of warm, salty water can travel from the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic Ocean, abruptly pushing up temperatures and salinity levels at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean.


The above Argo float image illustrates the danger that heat can reach the seafloor. North of Norway, where the water is less than 400 m deep, temperatures higher than 5°C show up throughout the vertical water column, over a period from May 31, 2022, to March 16, 2023. 


The panel on the left of the above image, from an earlier post, shows sea surface temperatures on June 20, 2020, while the panel on the right shows a bathymetry map indicating that the sea in a large part of the Arctic Ocean is very shallow.


The above map shows the thickness of Northern Hemisphere permafrost on land and below the seabed.


The above image describes how methane can escape from the permafrost and the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. 

The danger of destabilization of methane hydrates is especially large where methane is present in submarine permafrost and seas are shallow, such as the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS, see image below).

The above image was created with content from a paper by Natalia Shakhova et al., from an earlier post.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
As illustrated by above compilation image, both the volume and extent of Arctic sea ice are low for the time of year. 

With further melting of sea ice and thawing of permafrost, the Arctic Ocean can be expected to receive more heat over the next few years, more heat from direct sunlight, more heat from rivers, more heat from heatwaves and more ocean heat from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.


The above image illustrates the danger of two tipping points getting crossed, i.e. the Latent Heat Tipping Point and the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point, resulting in rapid destabilization of methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean leading to explosive eruptions of methane, as its volume increases 160 to 180-fold when leaving the hydrates.

Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page

Climate Emergency Declaration


A catastrophe of unimaginable proportions is unfolding. Life is disappearing from Earth and runaway heating could destroy all life. At 5°C heating, most life on Earth will have disappeared. When looking only at near-term human extinction, 3°C will likely suffice.

Meanwhile, current laws punish people for the most trivial things, while leaving the largest crime one can imagine unpunished: planetary omnicide!

Considering this, a Climate Emergency should be declared, supporting action including:
  • Institutionalization of climate deniers until rehabilitated, under national acts such as the U.S. RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations) Act and Sherman Antitrust Act.

  • Holding politicians accountable for omnicide (crimes against humanity and ecocide) and bringing them before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands, if they seek to indemnify themselves for their inadequate action on the unfolding climate catastrophe. 

  • Local implementation of action on climate change, with Local People's Courts ensuring that implementation is based on the best-available scientific analysis, to avoid control by politicians who get bought by looters and polluters.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202302/supplemental/page-4

• NSIDC - Chartic interactive sea ice graph
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Polar Portal

• Argo Float 4903641


• The Threat of Global Warming causing Near-Term Human Extinction
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Saturday, March 11, 2023

We are now in the Suicene

The Holocene is the geological epoch that started approximately 11,650 years ago. The demarcation point between the Holocene and the preceding Pleistocene is the end of the last Glacial Period, in line with variations in the Earth's orbit. 

Anthropocene

Instead of going down as would be in line with changes in the Earth's orbit, temperatures and greenhouse gas levels over the past few thousands of years have kept going up as a result of activities by people. In other words, changes in the Earth's orbit were no longer the dominant force causing changes in temperature and greenhouse gas levels, instead, human activities had become more dominant. 

Start of the Anthropocene

It makes sense to name an epoch after the dominant force shaping its climate. An earlier analysis concludes that, from the year 3480 BC, emissions by people have been higher than the amount it takes to negate the natural trend for the temperature to fall. From 3480 BC, forcing due to activities by people was stronger than the natural fall in temperature that would have eventuated in the absence of such activities. This makes the year 3480 BC most significant as a climate marker, and it makes sense to regard this both as the base for the temperature rise from pre-industrial and as the start of the Anthropocene. 

End of the Anthropocene

At the Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, nations pledged to limit the temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts taken to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The image below illustrates that, despite these pledges, these thresholds may already have been crossed. 

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

The earlier analysis concludes that the rise from pre-industrial to 2020 could be as much as 2.29°C, which would mean that the thresholds set at the Paris Agreement have already been crossed and the rise from pre-industrial may well exceed 3°C soon, in turn effectively making 3°C the (new) threshold that should not be crossed, the more so since humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.


Humans are now functionally extinct
  1. The situation is dire in many respects, including poor conditions of sea ice, levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, extreme weather causing droughts, flooding and storms, land suffering from deforestation, desertification, groundwater depletion and increased salinity, and oceans suffering from ocean heat, oxygen depletion, acidification, stratification, etc. These are the conditions that we're already in now. 

  2. On top of that, the outlook over the next few years is grim. Circumstances are making the situation even more dire, such as the emerging El Niño, a high peak in sunspots, the Tonga eruption that added a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere. Climate models often average out such circumstances, but over the next few years the peaks just seem to be piling up, while the world keeps expanding fossil fuel use and associated infrastructure that increases the Urban Heat Island Effect.

  3. As a result, feedbacks look set to kick in with ever greater ferocity, while developments such as crossing of tipping points could take place with the potential to drive humans (and many other species) into extinction wirhin years. The temperature on land on the Northern Hemisphere may rise so strongly that much traffic, transport and industrial activity could suddenly grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are now masking the full wrath of global heating. Temperatures could additionally rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.

  4. As a final straw breaking the camel's back, the world keeps appointing omnicidal maniacs who act in conflict with best-available scientific analysis including warnings that humans will likely go fully extinct with a 3°C rise.


The Suicine

As we keep appointing omnicidal maniacs who act in conflict with best-available scientific analysis, we are now facing a temperature rise that looks set to drive humans into extinction. Humans are now functionally extinct, and another name change is in order. Indeed, we are now in the Suicene. 


Conclusion

In conclusion, we have left the Anthropocene. We are now functionally extinct and we look set to drag most, if not all life on Earth into extinction with us, as we keep appointing omnicidal maniacs who act in conflict with best-available scientific analysis. We are now in the Suicene.

In the video below, Sandy discusses the situation. 

 

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