In the video below, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres comments on the launch of the IPCC AR6 WGIII SPM Mitigation report.
[ U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres ]
The report has severe shortcomings, including:
The IPCC makes it look as if the temperature rise could be restricted to 1.5°C above pre-industrial and insists there was a carbon budget left, to be divided by using monetary analysis.
This narrative results in a failure to highlight in the SPM some key drivers of change (such as heat pumps in buildings and air taxis in transport) and in inappropriately referring to such key drivers of change as 'options', while failing to mention the best policies to achieve the necessary changes, i.e. through local feebates.
The agenda behind this narrative becomes further evident in phrases such as “CCS could allow fossil fuels to be used longer, reducing stranded assets” and “oil and gas assets are projected to be more at risk of being stranded toward mid-century”.
Instead of “assets” at “risk” of getting “stranded”, these are liabilities that burden the world with a rising cost of clean-up and compensation claims. The IPCC gives CCS further undeserved importance by mentioning it no less than 32 times in the SPM, while a key driver of change such as heat pumps is mentioned only once, and not under buildings but industrial policy.
The image below, from the report's SPM, shows “options” by sector with the length of each bar indicating their potential for emissions reduction by 2030, while the color inside the bar gives a cost estimate.
These are not genuinely options, since the dire situation leaves little choice and instead makes it imperative to act most urgently, comprehensively and effectively on climate change, in line with the Paris Agreement.
The Paris Agreement does instruct the IPCC to describe the best pathways to achieve this and the IPCC has until now refused to do so. As Arctic-news blog has pointed out for more than a decade, mitigation is most effectively achieved by offering people a range of options, preferably through local feebates, which will also make such policies more popular, as a 2019 analysis (above) concludes.
Options are more appropriately realized in the form of feebates that can offer a range of options, with the more polluting options attracting fees and with the revenues used to fund rebates on the cleaner options.
An example of a wider set of local feebates is depicted in the above analysis of EV policy. A more diverse set of feebates could include not only fees on fuel and fuel-powered vehicles, but also on facilities that sell or process fuel, vehicle registration, parking, toll roads, etc. It's important to act comprehensively, along several lines of action, e.g. to redesign cities and plan for air taxis.
Given the urgency to act, such lines of action are all best implemented as soon as possible, yet at the same time many lines of action are best kept separate, as illustrated by the above image.
The image on the right illustrates the difference between using a Gobal Warming Potential (GWP) for methane of 171 over a few years, vs the IPCC's use of a GWP of 28 over 100 years.
Fees on sales of livestock products can raise revenue for pyrolysis of biowaste, with the resulting biochar added to the soil. That would also support the transition toward a vegan-organic diet more strongly, in line with the conclusion of an earlier IPCC report that a vegan diet ranks highest regarding mitigation (image right, from an earlier post).
The Climate Plan prefers local feebates. Where needed, fees can be set high enough to effectively ban specific alternatives.
Furthermore, instead of using money, local councils could add extra fees to rates for land where soil carbon falls, while using all revenue for rebates on rates for land where soil carbon rises.
That way, biochar effectively becomes a tool to lower rates, while it will also help improve the soil's fertility, its ability to retain water and to support more vegetation. That way, real assets are built, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the 2014 post Biochar Builds Real Assets.
Catastrophic Methane Rise
The IPCC narrative hinges on radical cuts in methane emissions from 2020, as illustrated by the image on the right.
Instead, methane rose by 15.27 ppb in 2020 and by 16.99 ppb in 2021, the two highest growth levels since the NOAA record began in 1984.
The combination image below shows the catastrophic rise of methane. The image in the left panel shows a trend based on January 2008-December 2021 monthly mean methane data.
When extending this trend, current methane concentration would be 1920 ppb. Note that methane in December 2021 was 18.6 ppb higher than in December 2020, and it now is April 2022.
The situation is even worse than depicted in above image, as NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements. Methane tends to rise in the atmosphere and accumulate at higher altitudes. As illustrated by the image below, mean methane level is growing fastest at the higher altitude associated with 293 mb.
Anyway, have another look at the combination image further above. The right panel shows that, if the trend continues, a concentration of 3840 ppb (i.e. double the current concentration) could be crossed in 2029, which would translate into a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) of 768 parts per million (ppm) at a one-year global warming potential (GWP) for methane of 200.
The image on the right shows a trend that, if continued, will cross a carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm by 2029.
Add this 450 ppm for CO₂ to 768 ppm CO₂e for methane and the joint CO₂e could be 1218 ppm in 2029, i.e. it would have crossed the point at which the clouds feedback starts to kick in (at 1200 ppm CO₂e).
The clouds feedback could thus raise the global temperature by 8°C by 2029, but when also adding the temperature impact of greenhouse gases and further drivers, the clouds tipping point could be crossed much earlier, say by 2026, while a temperature rise of 10°C could happen even before the clouds tipping point gets reached. Drivers could include nitrous oxide (N₂O, see image right), seafloor methane, water vapor, loss of Arctic sea ice and the falling away of the aerosol masking effect, as discussed at the Extinction page.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• Secretary-General Warns of Climate Emergency, Calling Intergovernmental Panel’s Report ‘a File of Shame’, While Saying Leaders ‘Are Lying’, Fuelling Flames https://www.un.org/press/en/2022/sgsm21228.doc.htm
As terrestrial adversaries keep pushing the Earth and its inhabitants to within seconds of a nuclear catastrophe, looming through heat waves, extreme fires and flood events is the huge calamity of irreversible global warming.
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached levels well above 420 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Lao, Hawaii, on February 13 and 14, 2022, as illustrated by the image, from an earlier post.
The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows CO₂ and other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) rising from 280 ppm CO₂e in 1700 to 504 ppm CO₂e in 2021. This figure of 504 ppm CO₂e could be much higher when applying a short horizon to calculate methane's Global Warming Potential.
CO₂ levels have been rising from ~315 ppm in 1950 to ~419 ppm in 2022, at an average growth rate of some 1.44 ppm/year accelerating to about 2.5 ppm/year recently.
The rate of this CO₂ rise is unprecedented in the Cenozoic (since 65 Ma) record, with perhaps the closest parallel being the aftermath of the K-T dinosaur mass extinction event, when the temperature rose by as much as ~7.5°C. According to Beerling et al. (2002) CO₂ level rose from 350–500 ppm to at least 2,300 ppm within 10,000 years following the K-T impact, at an average rate of ~0.2 ppm/year, significantly less than today's rate.
Above image shows CO₂ on track to reach 575 ppm by 2061, a level commensurate with atmospheric conditions during parts of the Miocene, when the temperature in central Europe was 20°C higher than today, as also illustrated by the image below, adapted from a 2020 study by Methner et al.
The image below further illustrates that to find CO₂ levels as high as 575 ppm, we have to go back in time millions of year, into the Miocene.
What makes current conditions even more dire is that it's not just carbon dioxide that is rising at a speed unprecedented in history, methane is rising at an even faster pace, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.
Can the current climate trend be arrested, or even reversed?
The current global greenhouse gas trend is leading to one of the largest mass extinctions of species in the geological record, one of the victims being human civilization. The current focus on emission reduction overlooks a major factor, namely the amplifying feedbacks from land and oceans (Steffen et al., 2018). There is a desperate need, in addition to emission reduction, for urgent large-scale sequestration of atmospheric greenhouse gases, and for further action to combat the temperature rise.
an increase in evaporation, raising atmospheric water vapor levels, which enhances the greenhouse gas effect;
a decline in the polar albedo (reflection) due to large-scale lateral and vertical melting of ice;
release of methane from degrading permafrost and from polar sediments;
reduced CO₂ intake by warming oceans. Currently the oceans absorb between 35-42% of all CO₂ and around 90% of the excess heat;
warming, desiccation, deforestation and fires over land areas.
Numerous species have been unable to survive the accelerated global heating following the K-T impact event, nor are many species likely to survive the even higher rate of the of the Anthropocene catastrophe. A connection between climate change and human wars is evident from the accelerated global warming in the wake of the industrial-scale world wars I and II and subsequent industrial developments. It is possible that climate change could have been arrested in the 1960s had global efforts been directed at the time for abrupt cuts in emissions, transformation of agricultural and land clearing practices, and effort at CO₂ drawdown/sequestration. By the onset of the 21st century however, such efforts have hardly been undertaken and could yet turn out to be too late. The repetitions of humanity’s old warlike habits, investing resources in industries of death, genocidal wars associated with intensive carbon emissions, forecast in “The Fate of the Earth”, yield little promise for a change of direction.
Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of New South Wales, Kensington NSW 2052 Australia
Arctic sea ice extent has fallen strongly over the past few weeks and looks set to keep falling rapidly over the next few months.
Ocean heat is at record levels, as illustrated by the image below and as discussed in an earlier post.
The image below shows the temperature at the North Pole reaching 0.7°C or 33.3°F (at 1000 hPa, at the green circle) on March 16, 2022, with ocean currents depicted at the background.
How could the temperature at the North Pole get this high, in March?
As said, ocean heat is at record levels. This is heating up the air over the Atlantic Ocean. At times, huge amounts of heat are getting pushed into the Arctic due to a distorted Jet Stream. The image on the right shows the Jet Stream on the Northern Hemisphere on March 16, 2022, with strong winds at 250 hPa pushing heat from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic.
Furthermore, the Gulf Stream is pushing huge amounts of ocean heat toward the Arctic.
The image below shows that sea surface temperatures were as much as 14.1°C or 25.3°F higher than 1981-2011 off the North American coast (green circle) on March 5, 2022.
The image below shows that, on March 16, 2022, the temperature in the Arctic was 3.5°C higher than 1979-2000.
Below, a Climate Reanalyzer forecast for March 18, 2022, of very high temperature anomalies over Antarctica combined with a forecast of a diversion over Antarctica of the Southern Polar Jet Stream (wind at 250 hPa).
As the combination image below shows, the temperature on Antarctica was 12.5°C or 54.4°F at 1000 hPa at the green circle on March 17, 2022 at 17:00 UTC. The image in the left panel shows high sea surface temperature anomalies south of Australia, while the Jet Stream (250 hPa) moves over Antarctica. The image in the right panel shows wind and temperature at 1000 hPa.
What causes such distortions of the Jet Stream?
• Emissions by people heat up the air, and heat up oceans and make winds stronger, as discussed in an earlier post.
• Another mechanism affecting the Jet Stream is that, as oceans heat up, the temperature difference between land and oceans widens both in Summer and in Winter and this can cause the Jet Stream to divert deeper from the narrow path it used to follow, as discussed in an earlier post.
• What especially affects the Jet Stream on the Northern Hemisphere is that, as the Arctic gets hit hard by temperature rises, the temperature difference narrows between the Arctic and the Equator, slowing the Jet Stream; this can prolong and amplify extreme weather events.
Signs of the things to come
The above events could be seen as signs of the strength and the speed of the rise to come.
Rise due to La Niña and high sunspots
The image below indicates that the global temperature difference between the top of an El Niño and the bottom of a La Niña period could be more than half a degree Celsius.
The highest temperature anomalies have over the years shown up at the highest latitudes North, i.e. the Arctic Ocean, in particular during El Niño periods.
This is illustrated by the image on the right, created with a NASA image that shows temperature anomalies of up to 4.1°C (versus 1951-1980) over the Arctic Ocean.
The next image on the right, by Climate Reanalyzer, illustrates that very high temperature anomalies can show up at the highest latitudes North during Winter on the Northern Hemisphere, in this case a temperature anomaly (vs 1979-2000) of 7°C for the Arctic as a whole on February 28, 2022.
It is ominous for such high anomalies to show up in the Arctic during a La Niña period, and when it's Winter on the Northern Hemisphere when there's only very little sunlight reaching the Arctic.
For comparison, the next image on the right shows a temperature anomaly (vs 1979-2000) of 7.7°C for the Arctic as a whole on November 18, 2016, when there was an El Niño.
We're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña, as illustrated by the next image on the right, adapted from NOAA. This has been suppressing the temperature and it will keep suppressing the temperature until the start of the next El Niño. The next El Niño could push temperatures up even more strongly than the average El Niño, for a number of reasons.
As the temperature keeps rising, ever more frequent strong El Niño events are likely to occur, as discussed in an earlier post. Furthermore, a 2019 study analyzes how tipping the ENSO into a permanent El Niño can trigger state transitions in global terrestrial ecosystems, as mentioned in an earlier post.
Currently, the temperature rise is additionally suppressed by low sunspots. Within a few years time, sunspots can be expected to reach the peak of their current cycle. Observed sunspots look stronger than predicted, as described at the sunspots page. According to IPCC AR4, warming by solar irradiance ranges from 0.06 to 0.3 W/m².
On top of the temperature rise that can be expected to unfold over the next few years due to variables such as an upcoming El Niño and high sunspots, there is the temperature rise due to further elements.
One of these elements causing the temperature to rise is the falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a further temperature rise due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place.
As the temperature of the atmosphere rises, this will trigger self-reinforcing feedbacks such as an increase in water vapor combined with a decrease in lower clouds decks, further increasing the temperature, as described at the clouds feedback page.
What could further push up temperatures a lot over the next few years is the compound impact of feedbacks in the Arctic, including decline of the snow and ice cover, releases of greenhouse gases from degrading subsea and terrestrial permafrost, and further distortion of the Jet Stream causing more extreme weather events.
Conclusion
The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.
Keep in mind that this 1909.3 ppb reading is for November 2021; it now is March 2022. Furthermore, NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements; more methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes.
The image below shows that the MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1936 ppb at 321 mb on March 7, 2022 pm.
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide levels are currently very high over the Arctic, as illustrated by the image below that shows carbon dioxide levels approaching 430 parts per million (ppm) recently at Barrow, Alaska.
The danger is that high greenhouse gas levels could combine to push the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) level over the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point, at first in one spot, causing low-altitude clouds in various neighboring areas to break up there, and then propagating break-up of clouds in further areas, as discussed at the clouds feedback page.
The MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1958 ppb on October 25, 2021 am at 295 mb. When using a 1-year GWP of 200, this translates into 391.6 ppm CO₂e. Together with a global mean CO₂ level of 420 ppm, that's 811.6 ppm CO₂e, i.e. only 388.4 ppm CO₂e away from the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point.
The image on the right shows a trend based pointing at a methane level of almost 4000 ppb by end 2026, from an earlier post.
Alternatively, an additional 5 Gt of methane from abrupt release from the seafloor could raise the global mean methane concentration by about 2000 ppb, and even earlier than 2026.
At a 1-year GWP of 200, an extra 2000 ppb would translate into an extra 400 ppm CO₂e, thus pushing the joint impact of just two greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and methane) above the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point and raising the global temperature by 8°C due to the clouds feedback alone, i.e. on top of the additional rise caused by other warming elements, as further discussed below.
Seafloor methane eruptions could trigger a huge temperature rise
Warnings about the potential for seafloor methane releases have been given repeatedly, such as in this 2017 analysis, in this 2019 analysis (image below) and in a recent analysis (2022). Researchers in 2019 found amounts of methane in the air over the East Siberian Sea up to nine times the global average.
A 2021 analysis indicates that massive methane seepage from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean occurred during ice sheet wastage over the last and penultimate deglaciation periods (i.e. the Holocene, ~20-15 ka, respectively the Eemian, ~140-130 ka).
At the time, seafloor methane entering the atmosphere could be accommodated without resulting in huge temperature rises, because such releases were spread out over relatively long periods, while the level of methane in the atmosphere at the time was relatively low and since the lifetime of methane is limited to a decade or so.
Today, circumstances are much more dire in many respects. While high heat peaks may have occurred locally during the last and penultimate deglaciation, today's global mean temperature is higher, as James Hansen et al., confirmed in a 2017 analysis. Furthermore, a 2012 analysis indicates that oceanic heat transport to the Arctic today is higher.
Greenhouse gas levels are very high at the moment and their rise is accelerating. As a result of the rapidity of today's rise, new seafloor methane eruptions can occur while previous methane releases haven't yet been broken down in the atmosphere.
Seafloor methane eruptions can thus trigger a huge temperature rise, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.
Conclusions
The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.
• Current rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf - by Nataia Shakhova et al. (2017) https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15872
• Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf - by Nataia Shakhova et al. (2019) https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251
• CNN - Russian scientists say they've found the highest-ever 'flares' of methane in Arctic waters