Saturday, March 12, 2022

Methane rise is accelerating


NOAA's globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane reading for November 2021 of 1909.3 parts per billion (ppb) is 17.6 ppb higher than the reading for November 2020. By comparison, NOAA's annual global mean methane increase of 15.57 ppb for 2020 was at the time the highest on record.

Keep in mind that this 1909.3 ppb reading is for November 2021; it now is March 2022. Furthermore, NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements; more methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes.

The image below shows that the MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1936 ppb at 321 mb on March 7, 2022 pm.


Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide levels are currently very high over the Arctic, as illustrated by the image below that shows carbon dioxide levels approaching 430 parts per million (ppm) recently at Barrow, Alaska. 


Clouds tipping point

[ from earlier post ]
The danger is that high greenhouse gas levels could combine to push the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) level over the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point, at first in one spot, causing low-altitude clouds in various neighboring areas to break up there, and then propagating break-up of clouds in further areas, as discussed at the clouds feedback page.

The MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1958 ppb on October 25, 2021 am at 295 mb. When using a 1-year GWP of 200, this translates into 391.6 ppm CO₂e. Together with a global mean CO₂ level of 420 ppm, that's 811.6 ppm CO₂e, i.e. only 388.4 ppm CO₂e away from the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point. 

The image on the right shows a trend based pointing at a methane level of almost 4000 ppb by end 2026, from an earlier post.

Alternatively, an additional 5 Gt of methane from abrupt release from the seafloor could raise the global mean methane concentration by about 2000 ppb, and even earlier than 2026.

At a 1-year GWP of 200, an extra 2000 ppb would translate into an extra 400 ppm CO₂e, thus pushing the joint impact of just two greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and methane) above the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point and raising the global temperature by 8°C due to the clouds feedback alone, i.e. on top of the additional rise caused by other warming elements, as further discussed below.


Seafloor methane eruptions could trigger a huge temperature rise 

Warnings about the potential for seafloor methane releases have been given repeatedly, such as in this 2017 analysis, in this 2019 analysis (image below) and in a recent analysis (2022). Researchers in 2019 found amounts of methane in the air over the East Siberian Sea up to nine times the global average.


A 2021 analysis indicates that massive methane seepage from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean occurred during ice sheet wastage over the last and penultimate deglaciation periods (i.e. the Holocene, ~20-15 ka, respectively the Eemian, ~140-130 ka).

At the time, seafloor methane entering the atmosphere could be accommodated without resulting in huge temperature rises, because such releases were spread out over relatively long periods, while the level of methane in the atmosphere at the time was relatively low and since the lifetime of methane is limited to a decade or so. 

Today, circumstances are much more dire in many respects. While high heat peaks may have occurred locally during the last and penultimate deglaciation, today's global mean temperature is higher, as James Hansen et al., confirmed in a 2017 analysis. Furthermore, a 2012 analysis indicates that oceanic heat transport to the Arctic today is higher.

Greenhouse gas levels are very high at the moment and their rise is accelerating. As a result of the rapidity of today's rise, new seafloor methane eruptions can occur while previous methane releases haven't yet been broken down in the atmosphere. 
  
Seafloor methane eruptions can thus trigger a huge temperature rise, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page. 


Conclusions

The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.


Links

• NOAA - globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data
https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_mm_gl.txt

• NOAA - globally averaged marine surface annual mean methane growth rates
https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_gr_gl.txt

• NOAA - Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) Sounding Products (MetOp-B)
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi

• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_trend.html

• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases, Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW

• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/graph.html

• Clouds feedback
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Human Extinction by 2022?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html

• Terrifying Arctic methane levels
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/terrifying-arctic-methane-levels.html

• Terrifying Arctic methane levels continue
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/terrifying-arctic-greenhouse-gas-levels-continue.html

• Current rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf - by Nataia Shakhova et al. (2017)
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15872

• Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf - by Nataia Shakhova et al. (2019)
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251

• CNN - Russian scientists say they've found the highest-ever 'flares' of methane in Arctic waters
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/12/us/arctic-methane-gas-flare-trnd/index.html

• In-situ temperatures and thermal properties of the East Siberian Arctic shelf sediments: Key input for understanding the dynamics of subsea permafrost - by Evgeny Chuvilin et al. (2022)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264817222000289

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Arctic methane release due to melting ice is likely to happen again 
https://www.geosociety.org/GSA/News/pr/2021/21-15.aspx

• Ice-sheet melt drove methane emissions in the Arctic during the last two interglacials - by Pierre-Antoine Dessandier et al. (2021)
https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/49/7/799/595627/Ice-sheet-melt-drove-methane-emissions-in-the

• Contrasting ocean changes between the subpolar and polar North Atlantic during the past 135 ka - by Henning Bauch et al. (2012) 
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL051800

• Young people's burden - by James Hansen et al. 

• Extinction

• Climate Plan
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Monday, February 28, 2022

What the IPCC impacts report is hiding

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Above image is adapted from content by IPCC AR6 WGII and Peter Carter, expert IPCC reviewer and director of the Climate Emergency Institute. 

The IPCC keeps hiding how much the temperature could already have risen and could rise over the next few years, the associated dangers, and the policies that could most effectively improve the situation. 



1. Hiding the potential rise that has already unfolded
One of the first issues that springs to mind is the IPCC's use of 1850-1900 as a baseline, which isn't pre-industrial as the Paris Agreement called for.


Above image, adapted from a NASA image, shows a January 2022 temperature rise of 1.31°C versus 1885-1915. As the box underneath indicates, a further 0.1°C could be added for ocean air temperatures and another 0.1°C for higher polar anomalies. When calculating the temperature rise from pre-industrial, a further 0.79°C could be added for the period from 3480 BC to 1900, resulting in a total temperature rise from pre-industrial to January 2022 of 2.3°C.


2. Hiding the potential rise to come

While a huge temperature rise has already unfolded, the rise is accelerating, as discussed at earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the image below, an example from an earlier post. 


In other words, an even larger temperature rise threatens to unfold soon, i.e. this could happen over the course of at few years, as illustrated by the stacked bar next to the cartoon above and as discussed at the extinction page.


3. Hiding the largest dangers

The rise that has already unfolded, i.e. the rise from pre-industrial to 2020, could be as much as 2.3°C, as discussed above and at the pre-industrial page. Furthermore, the temperature rise is accelerating. In other words, Earth is already in the danger zone and the question remains what the implications are of a 3°C, 4°C and 5°C rise.



What would be the impact of a 3°C, a 4°C, or a 5°C rise? 

At a 3°C rise, humans will likely go extinct, as habitat for humans (and many other species) will disappear. Such a rise will cause a rapid decline of the snow and ice cover around the globe, in turn making that less sunlight gets reflected back into space. Associated changes are discussed in more detail at this page and this page, and include that the jet stream will further get out of shape, resulting in more extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves and firestorms. Changes to the jet stream will also contribute to a further strengthening of storms, which threatens to at times push large amounts of hot, salty water into the Arctic Ocean, triggering eruptions of more and more seafloor methane, as discussed in an earlier post.

[ from an earlier post  ]
From a 4°C rise, Earth will experience a moist-greenhouse scenario. As the temperature rise gains further momentum, runaway heating may well turn Earth into a lifeless planet, a danger that was discussed in this 2013 post, warning that, without anything stopping the rise, it will continue to eventually destroy the ozone layer and the ice caps, while the oceans would be evaporating into the atmosphere's upper stratosphere and eventually disappear into space.

At 5°C rise, most life on Earth will have gone extinct. A 2018 study by Strona & Bradshaw indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise (see box on the right). As the temperature keeps rising, chances are that all life on Earth will go extinct, as Earth would be left with no ozone layer to protect life from deadly UV-radiation. Furthermore, Earth would no longer have water, an essential building block of life. Soil moisture, groundwater and water in oceans would evaporate and eventually disappear into space, as discussed in an earlier post.

Much of the above was discussed earlier at Most Important Message Ever.

[ from the post When will we die? ]

A rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026. Humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. In the light of this, we should act with integrity.


4. Hiding the very policies that can most effectively improve the situation

The IPCC creates a perception that pollution can continue for decades to come. The IPCC does so by downplaying the size of the temperature rise and the threat of a huge rise within years. The IPCC promotes the idea that there was a “carbon budget” to be divided among polluters that would enable polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. Most importantly, the IPCC has once more failed to do what the Paris Agreement calls for, i.e. for the IPCC to specify the pathways that can best improve the situation, specifically the policies that are needed to facilitate a better future. 

The speed at which a huge temperature rise can unfold makes that many adaption efforts could be wasted or even counter-productive. A 2021 report by Neta Crawford estimates the budgetary costs and future obligations of the post-9/11 wars at about $8 trillion in 2021 dollars. Much of that money was spent on securing the supply and transport of fossil fuel. Governments spend $1.8tn a year on subsidies that harm the environment, a study by Doug Koplow et al. finds. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8% of GDP and are expected to rise to 7.4% of GDP in 2025, a 2021 IMF report finds. 

Perverse subsidies are even higher when also including money that now goes into constructing transport infrastructure such as roads, highways, tunnels, bridges, railways, airports, etc. Redirecting such funding could enable more people to work and study from home with time to spare and gardens to grow their own food, instead of commuting by car over roads to offices, schools, etc.

[ from earlier post ]
Electric VTOL air taxis can replace a huge part of the traffic that now demands expensive infrastructure such as roads, railways including service stations, parking buildings and strips, bridges, tunnels, etc. Air taxis can facilitate a dramatic reduction in the need for traffic infrastructure, which also includes space now used for garages and parking.

If much of this traffic instead takes place by air taxis, then urban design can have more space for outdoor dining, parks, markets, tree-lined footpaths, bike-tracks, etc. 

Furthermore, drones could be used for transport and delivery of cargo, pharmaceuticals, etc. In many places, cities can become more compact and buildings can be put closer together, thus reducing overall cost and enabling people to reach destinations quicker, either by walking or cycling. Air taxis can bring people to many destinations fast, while people can also using online facilities to further reduce the need for transport and travel infrastructure.

In other places, the space now used for roads and parking could instead be used to create urban forests, to extend gardens and to create community gardens and markets where people can get locally-produced vegan-organic food such as fruit and vegetables.

Much additional infrastructure can also change, such as traffic lights and road signs, streetlights and the electricity grid. Supply of natural gas could be replaced by electric devices such as heat-pumps, induction-cookers and electric water-heaters. Organic waste can be pyrolysed with the resulting biochar added to the soil.

For more on the Urban Heat Island effect, see:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/airtaxis/posts/419568755612304


For more on biochar and pyrolysis, see:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar


Conclusion

The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.


Links

• IPCC AR6 WGII - Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

• Is the IPCC creating false perceptions, again?

• Human Extinction by 2022?

• NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4)
• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Aerosols
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html

• Clouds feedback
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Could Earth go the same way as Venus?
• Accelerating Methane Rise
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/accelerating-methane-rise.html

• Protecting Nature by Reforming Environmentally Harmful Subsidies: The Role of Business Prepared - by Doug Koplow and Ronald Steenblik (2022) 
https://www.earthtrack.net/sites/default/files/documents/EHS_Reform_Background_Report_fin.pdf

• The U.S. Budgetary Costs of the Post-9/11 Wars - by Neta Crawford (2021)
https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2021/Costs%20of%20War_U.S.%20Budgetary%20Costs%20of%20Post-9%2011%20Wars_9.1.21.pdf

• IMF - Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/09/23/Still-Not-Getting-Energy-Prices-Right-A-Global-and-Country-Update-of-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-466004

• Which policy can help EVs most?
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html




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Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Albedo loss in Antarctica


As above image shows, Antarctic sea ice extent was only 1.973 million km² on February 23, 2022, the lowest on record since satellite measurements began in 1979.


Earlier, on February 20, 2022, Antarctic sea ice extent was only 1.983 million km². On February 20, 2008, it was 3.783 million km². That's a difference of 1.8 million km², or some 0.36% of the total surface of Earth (which is 510,072,000 km²).



As illustrated by above image, adapted from IPCC AR5, incoming solar radiation at Top Of Atmosphere (TOA) is 340.4 W/m². This 340.4 W/m² is an average. The value varies depending on the seasons, i.e. the more the surface of Earth is facing the Sun, the higher this value will be (see image below, from the insolation page). 

                     The June Solstice in 2021 occurred on June 21, 2021.
Another variable is how many clouds and aerosols are in the sky. Much of this radiation can be reflected or absorbed by the atmosphere and some of the radiation that reaches the surface can also be reflected. Yet, on a cloud-free day, where the sky is clear from aerosols, much of the incoming solar radiation will reach the surface. It further depends on the albedo of the surface, how much will in the end be absorbed or reflected at the surface.

[ from the Albedo page ]

Albedo refers to the reflectivity of the surface. Earth average albedo is 0.3 or 30%. The albedo of sea ice can be as high as 0.9 (i.e. 90% when covered with fresh snow). Currently, albedo of the sea ice is about 0.6 (the sea ice is partly covered with melt pools). Open water has an albedo of 0.06. So, disappearance of the sea ice makes an albedo difference of at least 0.5.

So, when taking half of 340 W/m² and multiplying this by 0.36% (i.e. the part of Earth's surface), that gives a radiative forcing of 0.612 W/m². That would mean that some 0.612 W/m² that was previously reflected (Feb 20, 2008) is now instead absorbed by the ocean (on Feb 20, 2022). If Antarctic sea ice would disappear altogether, that would correspond to another loss of some 0.612 W/m², and together with the difference between 2008 and 2022, that would add up to a total radiative forcing of 1,224 W/m².

That's almost half as much as all human-caused global warming in 2019. As the image below shows, radiative forcing was 2.72 W/m² in 2019 relative to 1750, according to IPCC AR6. 


If anyone can add to or improve the above calculation, please add a comment (see box below). 

The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.


Links

• NSIDC - Charctic interactive Sea Ice Graph
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Wikipedia - Earth
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth

• IPCC - Figure 2.11 (AR5/WG1/Chapter 2)
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/observations-atmosphere-and-surface/fig2-11_orig-pptx-2

• The global energy balance from a surface perspective - by Martin Wild et al. (2012)

• NASA - Earth albedo

• Albedo

• Insolation

• IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html





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Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Greenhouse gas levels keep rising at accelerating speed

Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) was 421.59 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Lao, Hawaii, on February 14, 2022, a level unprecedented in millions of years. 

Carbon dioxide levels typically reach their annual maximum in May, so even higher levels can be expected over the next few months.


Carbon dioxide levels are even higher at high latitudes north. The image below shows that carbon dioxide levels are approaching 430 ppm at Barrow, Alaska.

Methane

NOAA's monthly global mean reading for October 2021 for methane (CH₄) is 1907.2 parts per billion (ppb), which is 17.1 ppb higher than the reading for October 2020. By comparison, NOAA's annual global mean methane increase of 15.74 ppb for 2020 was the highest on record at the time and the increase for 2021 looks to be even higher.
Keep in mind that NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements; more methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes.

Furthermore, keep in mind that the above 1907.2 ppb reading is for October 2021; it now is February 2022.  The image below shows that recent methane levels are approaching 1940 ppb at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Similarly as carbon dioxide, methane levels are even higher at high latitudes north. Furthermore, the rise is accelerating strongly. At Barrow, Alaska, recent methane levels are approaching 2040 ppb. 


Nitrous oxide

The image below shows the annual increase in globally-averaged nitrous oxide (N₂O).

The top part of the combination image below shows IPCC scenarios for nitrous oxide, as discussed in an earlier post, with the bottom part showing recent NOAA observations (through to October 2022).



Clouds feedback

As discussed in an earlier post, just two greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, could abruptly cause the joint CO₂e to cross the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point, triggering a further 8°C global temperature rise, due to the clouds feedback.

Again, that could be the result of the climate forcing just of carbon dioxide and methane, without even adding further forcing such as by nitrous oxide. Meanwhile, as discussed, humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, and a 5°C rise will likely end most life on Earth.


Conclusion

The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.



Links

• NOAA - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• NOAA - Barrow, Alaska
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Terrifying Arctic greenhouse gas levels continue
• NOAA - Nitrous oxide trends
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_n2o

• NOAA - Globally averaged marine surface monthly mean nitrous oxide data

• Is the IPCC creating false perceptions, again?

• Accelerating Methane Rise

• Terrifying Arctic greenhouse gas levels continue
• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

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