Arctic News

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Portents of continental-scale fires as the Earth warms

Andrew Glikson

Earth and climate scientist

Australian National University

15.11.2019

The effects of encroaching deserts and of fire storms on terrestrial forests originally developed under moderate conditions distinct from those emerging under rapid global warming and extreme weather events may have been underestimated. Average global temperatures do not tell the story — it is the increasingly frequent weather anomalies which do. Powerful psychological factors prevent many scientists from expressing their worst fears, a phenomenon dubbed as “scientific reticence”.

As the tropical climate zones expand toward the poles, moderate climate zones shift polar-ward and are contracting where they clash with polar-derived cold air and ice melt water flow through weakened jet stream boundaries. As climate zones are shifting at a rate of 56-111 km per decade and ecosystems have only a short time to adapt, arid zones expand and droughts and fires consume the moderate-climate forests and formerly fertile habitats. Allen et al. (2012) suggest the increase in black carbon aerosols and tropospheric ozone constitute significant factors generating a polar-ward shift of moderate climate zones.

Global fire maps by NASA document the progression of wildfires since about 2000, including major fires in Siberia, northwest Europe, southern Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia, Australia, central and southern America, California and elsewhere (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite showing fires around the world. Credit: NASA

Some of the global patterns that appear in the fire maps are the result of natural cycles of rainfall, dryness, and lightning. For example, naturally-occurring fires are common in the boreal forests of Canada in the summer. In other parts of the world, the patterns are the result of human activity. For example, the intense burning in the heart of South America from August-October is a result of human-triggered fires, both intentional and accidental.

Many scientists and the IPCC have underestimated the scale and rate of global warming and its consequences. With exceptions, the need for excessive caution and absolute certainty in science is often manifested in reticence from the mainstream science (‘Down to Earth’ 2019). However, the available evidence suggests that scientists have in fact been conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change and at least some of the key attributes of global warming from increased atmospheric greenhouse gases have been underpredicted, particularly in IPCC assessments of the physical science by Working Group I.

By contrast, at a speed hardly anticipated about 20 years ago, wildfires have been spreading around the globe over large parts of the continents.

Nor do average global land-ocean temperatures tell the whole story. It is the increasingly frequent anomalies which underlie extreme weather events (Fig. 2), including rapid Arctic melt, heatwaves, fires, storms and cyclones, which underpin the fundamental shift in the state of the terrestrial climate.

Figure 2. Temperature anomaly distribution: The frequency of occurrence (vertical axis) of local temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980 mean) in units of local standard deviation (horizontal axis). Area under each curve is unity. Image credit: NASA/GISS.

It has been stated “What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic”. Temperatures in the Arctic have reached 34°C in July 2019, affecting melting over 700,000 km² in Greenland late May 2019. The weakening of the circum-Arctic jet stream ensues in its undulation and intersection by warm air masses moving north and by cold air masses moving south, along with ice melt from the Greenland ice sheet forming cold regions in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Figure 3. Weather systems driven by the
strong westerly winds of the Antarctic
polar vortex curl over the southern
continents (NASA, Galileo).

According to the Australian Climate Council, climate change has contributed to a southward shift in weather systems that typically bring cool season rainfall to southern Australia. As the cold humid spirals of the Antarctic vortex (Fig. 3) recede to the south, since the 1970s late autumn and early winter rainfall has decreased by 15% in southeast Australia, and Western Australia’s southwest region. Current drought conditions come after a 2016/2017 and 2018 Summer characterized by record-breaking temperatures, followed by a record dry winter. Rainfall over southern Australia during autumn 2018 was the second lowest on record (Fig. 4). The drought has reached extreme level, accompanied by wildfires. Australia, like other parts of the world, is paying the price of climate change in terms of growing damage to its agriculture, communities and way of life.

Figure 4. Australia: Current effects of global warming.
A. 2018 annual mean temperatures compared to historical temperature observations.
B. 2018 annual rainfall compared to historical rainfall observations.

The global rise rate in CO₂ has reached 2 to 3 ppm/year, the fastest rate since 66 million years ago, and a level of CO₂-equivalent (a value including the radiative forcing of methane and nitrous oxide) near 500 ppm. According to the IMF (2017), the world is subsidizing fossil fuels by $5.2 trillion, equal to roughly 6.5% of global GDP. By contrast, the loss of wealth due to reduced agricultural productivity due to climate change is projected to exceed $19 billion by 2030, $211 billion by 2050 and a projected $4 trillion by 2100.

Figure 5. Fires in Australia, November 8, 2019, NASA Worldview

As stated by Hansen et al. (2012): “Burning all fossil fuels would create a different planet than the one that humanity knows. The palaeoclimate record and ongoing climate change make it clear that the climate system would be pushed beyond tipping points, setting in motion irreversible changes, including ice sheet disintegration with a continually adjusting shoreline, extermination of a substantial fraction of species on the planet, and increasingly devastating regional climate extremes”.

Andrew Glikson

Dr Andrew Glikson
Earth and climate scientist
Australian National University

Books:
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

A record CO2 rise rate since the KT dinosaur extinction 66 million years ago

By Andrew Glikson
Earth and climate scientist
Australian National University

As the concentration of atmospheric CO₂ has risen to 408 ppm and the total greenhouse gas level, including methane and nitrous oxide, combine to near 500 parts per million CO₂-equivalent, the stability threshold of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, currently melting at an accelerated rate, has been exceeded. The consequent expansion of tropics and the shift of climate zones toward the shrinking poles lead to increasingly warm and dry conditions under which fire storms, currently engulfing large parts of South America (Fig. 1), California, Alaska, Siberia, Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Angola, Australia and elsewhere have become a dominant factor in the destruction of terrestrial habitats.

Figure 1. Sensors on NASA satellites Terra and Aqua captured a record of thousands of points
of fire in Brazil in late August. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

Since the 18th century, combustion of fossil fuels has led to the release of more than 910 billion tons of carbon dioxide (GtCO₂) by human activity, raising CO₂ to about 408.5 ppm (Fig. 2), as compared to the 280-300 ppm range prior to the onset of the industrial age. By the early-21st century the current CO₂ rise rate has reached of 2 to 3 ppm/year.

Figure 2. Global temperature and carbon dioxide - Climate Central

Allowing for the transient albedo enhancing effects of sulphur dioxide and other aerosols, mean global temperature has potentially reached ~2.0 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. Current greenhouse gas forcing and global mean temperatures are approaching Miocene-like (5.3-23 million years-ago) composition.

The current carbon dioxide rise rate exceeds the fastest rates estimated for the K-T asteroid impact (66.4 million years-ago) and the PETM (Paleocene-Eocene Temperature Maximum) hyperthermal event (55.9 million years ago) by an order of magnitude (Fig. 3). The current growth rate of atmospheric greenhouse gases, in particular over the last 70 years or so, may appear gradual in our lifetime, but it constitutes an extreme event in the recorded history of Earth.

Figure 3. Cenozoic CO₂ and temperature rise rates. Current rise rates of CO₂ (2.86 ppm CO2/year) and temperature (0.15-0.20°C per decade since 1975) associated with extreme weather events raise doubt regarding gradual linear climate projections. Instead, chaotic climate conditions may arise from the clash between northward-shifting warm air masses which intersect the weakened undulating Arctic jet stream boundary and freezing polar air fronts penetrating Siberia, North America and Europe.

The definition of a “tipping point” in the climate system is a threshold which, once exceeded, can lead to large changes in the state of the system, or where the confluence of individual factors combines into a single stream. The term “tipping element” describes subcontinental-scale subsystems of the Earth system that are susceptible to being forced into a new irreversible state by small perturbations. In so far as a tipping point can be identified in current developments of the climate system, the weakening of the Arctic boundary, indicated by slowing down and increased disturbance of the jet stream heralds a likely tipping point, an example being the recent ‘Beast from the East” freeze in northern Europe and North America (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. The cold fronts penetrating Europe from Siberia and the North Atlantic and North America from the Arctic, 2018. UK Met Office.

A report by the National Academy Press 2011 states: “As the planet continues to warm, it may be approaching a critical climate threshold beyond which rapid (decadal-scale) and potentially catastrophic changes may occur that are not anticipated.”

Direct evidence for changing climate patterns is provided by the expansion of the tropics and migration of climate zones toward the poles, estimated at a rate of approximately 56-111 km per decade. As the dry subtropical zones shift toward the poles, droughts worsen and overall less rain falls in temperate regions. Poleward shifts in the average tracks of tropical and extratropical cyclones are already happening. This is likely to continue as the tropics expand further. As extratropical cyclones move, they shift rain away from temperate regions that historically rely on winter rainfalls for their agriculture and water supply. Australia is highly vulnerable to expanding tropics as about 60 percent of the continent lies north of 30°S.

Low-lying land areas, including coral islands, delta and low coastal and river valleys would be flooded due to sea level rise to Miocene-like (5.3-23 million years ago) sea levels of approximately 40±15 meters above pre-industrial levels. Accelerated flow of ice melt water flow from ice sheets into the oceans is reducing temperatures over tracts in the North Atlantic and circum-Antarctic oceans. Strong temperature contrasts between cold polar-derived fronts and warm tropical-derived air masses lead to extreme weather events, retarding habitats, in particular over coastal regions. As partial melting of the large ice sheets proceeds the Earth’s climate zones continue to shift polar-ward (Environmental Migration Portal, 2015). This results in an expansion of tropical regions such as existed in the Miocene, reducing the size of polar ice sheets and temperate climate zones.

According to Berger and Loutre (2002) the effect of high atmospheric greenhouse gas levels would delay the next ice age by tens of thousands of years, during which chaotic tropical to hyper-tropical conditions including extreme weather events would persist over much of the Earth, until atmospheric CO₂ and insolation subside. Humans are likely to survive in relatively favorable parts of Earth, such as sub-polar regions and sheltered mountain valleys, where cooler conditions would allow flora and fauna to persist.

To try and avoid a global calamity, abrupt reduction in carbon emissions is essential, but since the high level of CO₂-equivalent is activating amplifying feedbacks from land and ocean, global attempts to down-draw about of 50 to 100 ppm of CO₂ from the atmosphere, using every effective negative emissions, is essential. Such efforts would include streaming air through basalt and serpentine, biochar cultivation, sea weed sequestration, reforestation, sodium hydroxide pipe systems and other methods.

But while $trillions continue to be poured into preparation of future wars, currently no government is involved in any serious attempt at the defense of life on Earth.

Andrew Glikson

Dr Andrew Glikson
Earth and climate scientist
Australian National University

Books:
- The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
- The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
- Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
- Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
- The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
- Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
- From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence

Monday, October 21, 2019

Which policy can help EVs most?

In many countries, it has been proven hard to implement policies that help electric vehicle (EVs). In France, fuel taxes have triggered huge protests. In Ecuador, huge protests followed a steep rise in fuel prices, as a result of a decision to end gasoline and diesel subsidies.

An analysis conducted by Arctic-news compares eight policies on two criteria, i.e. how effective they are from a policy perspective and how popular the policies will likely be. As the image below shows, many policies are little or no better at helping EVs than continuing with business as usual (BAU).

“Tightening fuel economy standards may aim to reduce fuel use,” says Sam Carana, editor of Arctic-news, “but the Jevons paradox shows that this may lead to people buying more powerful cars, drive longer distances, etc. Moreover, it does little to help EVs, in fact, it may make it cheaper for people to keep driving fossil fuel-powered cars.

Sam Carana adds: “Subsidies for EVs aren't popular with pedestrians and cyclists, or with people who use public transport to go to work. These are often the poorest people and they feel that money that is spent on subsidies for EVs comes at the expense of social services for the poor. Subsidies are unlikely to gain popular support. Similarly, when subsidies for EVs take the form of tax deductions given to EV buyers, this mainly benefits those who can afford to buy EVs. Additionally, this reduces overall tax revenue, leaving less money for social services.”

“Taxes aren't much better, they may make driving a polluting car more expensive, but as long as people keep driving polluting cars, it won't help EVs and it won't help much with the climate crisis either. Higher taxes on fuel and cars haven't made EVs much more common in Europe than they are in the U.S., where such taxes are lower. The worst form of tax is 'Cap & Trade', as it enables people to keep driving polluting cars by paying for emission cuts elsewhere. Even if those cuts are indeed made elsewhere, they aren't made locally. Tax and Dividend seeks to get popular support by promising people part of the revenue, but this means the money isn't used to fight pollution and it may even be counterproductive, by helping people to keep driving fossil fuel-powered cars. Simple carbon taxes therefore seem more effective, while they may also be more popular with the poor, since more of the revenues can be spent on social services.”

Sam Carana: “Local feebates are the best way to go. It makes sense to add fees to the price of fuel, and - in order to most effectively facilitate the necessary transition to EVs - the revenues are best used to support EVs locally, which also helps such polices gain popular support locally.”

The analysis also looks at a wider set of local feebates, such as fees on sales of fossil fuel-powered cars, with the revenues used to fund rebates on local sales of EVs. Fees on facilities that sell or process fuel could also raise revenues that could be used to fund rebates on, say, EV chargers. Furthermore, differentiation in fees on car registration, on car parking and on toll roads could all help make EVs more attractive.

In conclusion, a wide set of local feebates can most effectively facilitate the necessary changes and can best gain local support. The climate crisis urgently needs comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan, which recommends implementation of local feebates to facilitate the necessary changes.

An associated issue is the Urban Heat Island effect, as illustrated by the image on the right. Buildings, roads and cars can significantly increase temperatures and pollution including ozone at surface level.

One way to reduce temperatures, pollution and road congestion is by using electric vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) air taxis.

Lilium plans to start offering air taxi services from 2025. While using about the same amount of electricity as an EV traveling over roads, the Lilium Jet travels as fast as 300 km/h and has a radius of 300 km.”

Sam Carana adds: “In practice, most trips are less than 10 km. A fleet of 10,000 Lilium Jets could cater for all trips otherwise made by cars in an area where one million people live.”

In theory, this could remove virtually all cars from a city, resulting in less need for roads, bridges, tunnels, parking spaces, garages, driveways, airports, etc. These air taxis can use the roofs of large buildings for landing and take off, or dedicated areas in parks or custom-built places along the shore (see image below).

This also means there will be less need for resources, infrastructure and space to manufacture, sell and service vehicles. As a result, urban centers could use the spaces gained for more trees, parks, footpaths and bike-ways, while becoming more compact, enabling people to live closer together and closer to workplaces, shops, restaurants, educational and medical facilities, etc. As cities become more compact, the average trip within a city will become shorter in distance and take up less time.

Lilium Flight Footage from Lilium on Vimeo.

Local councils should be keen to help make this happen, for a number of reasons. A fleet of air taxis can help combat road congestion, global heating, including the Urban Heat Island effect, and pollution by cars. At first glance, creating places for 10,000 air taxis to land and take off may look like a big job, but many businesses will be keen to accommodate air taxis. Moreover, it is very attractive when considering that 10,000 air taxis can replace the need for up to a million vehicles, as well as the need to build and maintain the associated roads, bridges, tunnels, parking spaces, garages, etc. It can also double the amount of land available for parks, houses and other buildings. Lilium plans to start offering commercial services from 2025, so it's time to start planning now and create places for air taxis to land and take off where they will be needed.

The video below, 'The Urban Green', was posted by WWF International on March 17, 2016.

Links

• Climate Plan (page)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Plan (post)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/climate-plan.html

• Climate Plan (group)
https://www.facebook.com/groups/climateplan

• Feebates
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feebates.html

• Who are the gilets jaunes and what do they want?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/03/who-are-the-gilets-jaunes-and-what-do-they-want

• Ecuador's Morena scraps fuel subsidy cuts in big win for indigenous groups
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecuador-protests/ecuadors-moreno-scraps-fuel-subsidy-cuts-in-big-win-for-indigenous-groups-idUSKBN1WT265

• Ecuador’s Government Crisis, Explained
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/ecuadors-government-crisis-explained/2019/10/08/d54f19f2-ea17-11e9-a329-7378fbfa1b63_story.html

• Ecuador: Society's Reaction to IMF Austerity Package

https://nacla.org/news/2019/10/14/ecuador-societys-reaction-imf-austerity-package-indigenous

• The Jevons Paradox
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

• Keeping Your Cool: How Communities Can Reduce the Heat Island Effect
https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-09/documents/heat_island_4-page_brochure_508_120413.pdf

• Hotter Summers Mean More Health Risks In Urban Heat Islands
https://www.opb.org/news/article/hotter-summers-mean-more-health-risks-in-urban-hea/

• Lilium Jet
https://lilium.com/

• Electric Transport group at facebook
https://www.facebook.com/groups/electrictransport/learning_content/?filter=2089885254419184

• Biochar group at facebook

https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar

• Air taxis group at facebook

https://www.facebook.com/groups/airtaxis

Monday, October 14, 2019

Arctic Ocean October 2019

Above image shows temperatures north of 80°N. The red line on the image shows the 2019 daily mean temperature up to Oct 13, 2019. The temperature is now well above the 1958-2002 mean (green line). The image also shows the freezing point of fresh water (273.15K, 0°C or 32°F, blue line).

The freezing point for salt water is lower, at around -2°C, or 28.4°F, or 271.2°K. In other words, a rise in the salt content of the water alone can make ice melt, i.e. even when the temperature of the water doesn't rise.

Above combination image shows forecasts for October 26, 2019. The left panel shows that air temperatures (2 m) are forecast to be 5.4°C higher over the Arctic than 1979-2000. Parts of the Arctic Ocean where there is no sea ice are forecast to be especially hot, since this is where heat gets transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. Anomalies are as high as 30°C, the top end of the scale. Temperature anomalies are in line with changes to the Jet Stream, as illustrated by the forecast in the right panel.

As above image shows, there was very little sea ice north of Greenland on October 11, 2019. Arctic sea ice extent is very low. As the image below shows, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.88 million km² on October 13, 2019, the lowest on record for the time of year.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

As the image below shows, the heat rising from the Arctic Ocean is such that sea ice extent is hardly growing.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice extent for the years, 1980,1990, 2010, 2012 and 2019, for the period as indicated.

The image below indicates that Arctic sea ice volume has been at record low levels for the time of year for some time.

Rising temperatures of water in the Arctic Ocean cause the sea ice to melt away from below. The image below, created with NOAA 2007-2019 June-September sea surface temperature data, shows heating of the sea surface on the Northern Hemisphere, with an ominous trend added.

The image indicates that a critical tipping point was crossed this year, with the disappearance of the thick sea ice that hangs underneath the surface.

This indicates that the buffer has gone that has until now been consuming ocean heat as part of the melting process. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat as it melts, so the temperature will not rise at the sea surface. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

The situation is so precarious because hot, salty water keeps flowing into the Arctic Ocean, at a time of year when the sea ice is growing in extent and sealing off the surface of the Arctic Ocean, thus reducing the heat that can get transferred to the atmosphere.

How hot is that water flowing into the Arctic Ocean? The image on the right shows sea surface temperature anomalies. On October 13, 2019, the sea surface near Svalbard at the green circle was 18.3°C or 65°F, i.e. 14.7°C or 26.4°F hotter than 1981-2011.

This is an indication of how hot the water is underneath the sea surface. At the sea surface, water gets colder due to evaporation and rain, resulting in a lid of fresh water at the surface sealing off hot and salty water underneath.

This hot and salty water moves underneath the sea surface in line with the deeper parts of the ocean, to emerge at this area near Svalbard (marker in the image below), as the water at this area becomes more shallow, making the sea current push the water to the surface.

Back in 2011, a study by Micha Ruhl et al. pointed at huge methane releases from clathrates during the end-Triassic mass extinction event, as discussed in an earlier post. The danger is that, in the absence of thick sea ice, hot water with a high salt content will reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, making it easier for ice in cracks in sediments at the seafloor to melt, resulting in huge methane releases.