Arctic News: latent heat

Showing posts with label latent heat. Show all posts

Saturday, July 23, 2022

Arctic sea ice July 2022

Blue Ocean Event

[ from Blue Ocean Event ]

A Blue Ocean Event occurs when virtually all sea ice disappears and the surface color changes from white (sea ice) to blue (ocean). According to many, a Blue Ocean Event starts once Arctic sea ice extent falls below 1 million km².

The image on the right shows a trend pointing at zero Arctic sea ice volume by September 2027.

Note that the volume data in the image are averages for the month September ⁠— the minimum for each year is even lower. Furthermore, since zero volume implies zero extent, this indicates that a Blue Ocean Event (extent below 1 million km²) could happen well before 2027.

Sea ice extent

The image below, adapted from NSIDC, shows the extent of Arctic sea ice on July 26, 2022.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The extent of Arctic sea ice was among the lowest on record for the time of year on July 26, 2022. Furthermore, Antarctic sea ice extent is currently at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Vishop and showing the situation up to July 27, 2022.

As a result, global extent of sea ice is close to record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Vishop and showing the situation up to July 27, 2022.

Both Vishop and NSIDC use 15% concentration as the threshold for including an area in calculations of sea ice extent. This makes it important to look at the concentration of the sea ice.

Sea ice concentration

The image below, adapted from University of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice concentration on July 22, 2022, with concentration in many areas close to the North Pole down to 0%.

The image below, adapted from NSIDC, shows Arctic sea ice concentration on July 26, 2022, with very low concentration of sea ice visible close to the North Pole.

Sea ice thickness

The Naval Research Laboratory one-month animation below shows Arctic sea ice thickness up to July 25, 2022, with 8 days of forecasts added.

The combination image below shows the fall in Arctic sea ice thickness from June 8 through August 6, 2022.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above combination image shows that most sea ice on June 8 (left) was forecast to be over 2 meters thick, that most sea ice on July 8 (center) was forecast to be over 1 meter thick, and that most sea was forecast to be under 1 meter thick on August 6, 2022 (right).

While the fall in extent over this period wasn't as dramatic, due to the suppression of air temperatures by the current La Niña, note that the green and yellow colors where the sea ice on June 8 was more than 2.5 meters thick, north of Greenland and north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, have virtually disappeared in the August 6 forecast.

The above maps show a dramatic fall in sea ice thickness over a large area. This fall in thickness is mostly due to warm water from the Atlantic Ocean that is melting the sea ice hanging underneath the surface. This is where the sea ice constitutes the latent heat buffer, consuming incoming heat in the process of melting.

The above Naval Research Laboratory maps may be conservative. The NASA Worldview and University of Bremen images below indicate that Arctic sea ice may be even thinner than that, especially north of the North Pole.

The NASA Worldview combination image below shows the sea ice north of the North Pole on July 22, 2022 (left), and on July 23, 2022 (right), indicating that at many places there is no sea ice left at all. Note that the view in many places is obscured due to clouds.

The University of Bremen combination image below shows the difference in sea ice thickness between June 1, 2022, June 30, 2022, and July 22, 2022. The images at the center and on the right show large areas where sea ice is less than 20 cm thick, indicating that the latent heat buffer had already disappeared in June 2022, as also discussed further below.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The NASA Worldview combination image below shows the sea ice north of Greenland on July 19, 2022 (top), and on July 22, 2022 (bottom), indicating that even at places where the sea ice once was the thickest, it can melt away rapidly. The mechanism behind this is that, as thick ice breaks off and fragments, it additionally gets heated up from the sides, and this further accelerates the melting as the sea ice breaks up further, into ever smaller pieces.

The image below was created with a screenshot of a July 26, 2022, NASA Worldview satellite image, with the Earth at Night layer activated and brightness and contrast enhanced, which enables a closer look to be taken through the clouds. The image shows very little sea ice near the North Pole.

The image below, a screenshot of a July 26, 2022, NASA Worldview satellite image, further shows that there is little sea ice close to the North Pole.

Conditions behind the danger

One reason why sea ice has fallen so much in thickness so close to the North Pole is that around the time of the June Solstice (June 22, 2022) the North Pole receives more insolation than anywhere else on Earth.

Around this time of year, the sunlight has less distance to travel through the thinner atmosphere over the Arctic, so less sunlight gets absorbed or scattered before reaching the surface. In addition, the high angle of the Sun produces long days and sunlight is concentrated over a smaller area. Above the Arctic Circle, the Sun does not set at this time of year, so solar radiation continues all day and night.

How much sunlight does reach the surface further depends on weather conditions such as clouds and how much heat gets pushed by the wind toward the North Pole. As temperatures have risen over the years, the Jet Stream has become more deformed, increasing the chance that heatwaves over land extend over the Arctic Ocean. Deformation of the Jet Stream can also lead to increasingly strong winds speeding up ocean currents that can abruptly push huge amounts of ocean heat into the Arctic ocean, as further discussed below. For more background, also see the feedbacks page.

Ocean heat

On July 19, 2022, the sea surface was as warm as 1.8°C or 35.2°F north of Greenland, as the nullschool.net image below shows.

The above image also shows how cold water (blue) flows down to the east of Greenland, while warm water (green) flows off the west coast of Norway toward to Arctic Ocean, diving under the sea ice north of Svalbard and reaching areas north of Greenland where sea surface temperatures rise above freezing point.

Of the extra heat from Earth's energy imbalance, about 93% ends up in the ocean as increasing ocean heat content (see image below), 3% goes into melting ice, 4% goes into raising temperatures of land and melting permafrost, and less than 1% remains in the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post.

[ from earlier post ]

Sea ice has disappeared in the Bering Strait, in part due to warm water from rivers in Alaska, as illustrated by the NOAA image below, which shows sea surface temperatures as high as 18.6°C or 65.48°F.

On July 19, 2022, the sea surface temperature anomaly from 1981-2011 in the Arctic Ocean was as high as 14.0°C or 25.2°F (at green circle), as illustrated by the screenshot below of a nullschool.net image (with text added). In 1981-2011, the sea surface temperature at this spot (at the green circle in the Kara Sea) at this time of year was around freezing point.

The above image also shows a distorted Jet Stream (at 250 hPa) moving over the Arctic ocean, instead of circumventing the Arctic and thus keeping heat out of the Arctic and keeping cold inside the Arctic, as it used to be.

The above NOAA image illustrates how the Gulf Stream is pushing warm water toward the Arctic, with sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic reaching as high as 32.6°C or 90.68°F on July 23, 2022.

Latent heat

Latent heat is heat that is (less and less) going into melting the sea ice. The reason this heat is called latent (hidden) heat, is that it doesn't raise the temperature of the water, but instead gets consumed in the process of melting the ice. Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when solid ice turns into water (i.e. melting). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.

Once most of the sea ice that was hanging underneath the surface is gone, further heat will still keep moving underneath the sea ice from the Atlantic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the Pacific Ocean into the Arctic Ocean. Without the latent heat buffer, this heat must go elsewhere, i.e. it will typically raise the temperature of the water. The atmosphere will also warm up faster. More evaporation will occur once the sea ice is gone, further warming up the atmosphere.

A 2019 analysis concludes that the latent heat tipping point gets crossed when the sea surface temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere gets higher than 1°C above 20th century's temperature and when there is little or no thick sea ice left. As the image below indicates, the temperature anomaly of 1°C above the 20th century average looks set to be crossed in the course of the year 2021.

[ from the post Arctic Ocean invaded by hot, salty water ]

As the Latent Heat Tipping Point gets crossed, there may still be a thin layer of ice at the surface, at least as long as air temperatures are low enough to keep it frozen and as long as strong winds haven't pushed the sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean. This thin layer of ice will still consume some ocean heat below the surface, but at the same time it acts as a seal, preventing heat from the Arctic Ocean to enter the atmosphere. Even if a lot of sea ice remains, the situation is dangerous, if not even more dangerous. The continuing La Niña could cause a lot of thin sea ice to remain at the surface of the Arctic Ocean this year. The more sea ice remains, the less ocean heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, which means that more heat remains in the Arctic Ocean.

One huge danger is that, as the buffer disappears that until now has consumed huge amounts of ocean heat, more heat will reach methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing them to get destabilized and resulting in releases of methane from these hydrates and from free gas underneath that was previously sealed by the hydrates.

As the latent heat buffer of the sea ice underneath the surface disappears, more of this heat could then reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, threatening eruptions to occur of seafloor methane (from hydrates and from free gas underneath the hydrates). The methane could similarly push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, and globally over the next few years.

[ feedback #14: Latent Heat ]

The above 2014 image, from the feedbacks page, shows three of the numerous feedbacks that are accelerating warming in the Arctic. Feedback #1 is the albedo feedback. Feedback #14 refers to the loss of the Latent Heat Buffer and warming of the Arctic Ocean. Feedback #2 refers to methane releases.

Heatwaves look set to continue on the Northern Hemisphere, extending heat over the Arctic Ocean and thus affecting Arctic sea ice from above, while warm water from rivers will cause more melting at the surface, and while rising ocean heat will continue to cause more melting of the ice underneath the surface. If this continues, we can expect a new record low for sea ice in September 2022 and the joint loss of the latent heat buffer and the loss of albedo could push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, while the additional methane could similarly push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, and globally over the next few years.

[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]

As discussed at the albedo page and the feedbacks page, albedo change, loss of the latent heat buffer and changes to the Jet Stream are important feedbacks.

The above image, adapted from an ECMWF.int forecast for July 29, 2022, 12 UTC, run at that time, shows virtually no snow and ice cover over land except Greenland. The image also shows the difference such cover or the lack thereof makes in albedo.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image, adapted from NOAA Coral Bleaching Heat Stress Monitoring, shows expected coral bleaching heat stress for August to November 2022. The image on the right shows that coral bleaching alert level 2 was reached in the Barents Sea (green circle) on July 29, 2022, while a distorted Jet Stream is pushing warm, salty water from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean.

A 2022 study of the Blob, a warm water area in the North Pacific that began in late 2013, concludes that the unusually warm waters were transported northward from further south. The researchers found that abnormally warm temperatures extended 1,000 meters (3,280 feet) below the surface.

The above image shows the Blob on July 24, 2022, with sea surface temperature anomalies as high as 10.5°C or 18.8°F on July 24, 2022. The North Pacific Current is visible, extending eastward from the coast of Japan.

Arctic-news has long (e.g. in this 2017 post) warned that changes to the Jet Stream can strengthen storms that can in turn cause a large amount of warm, salty water to abruptly move north and enter the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and trigger destabilization of methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruption of huge amounts of methane that could drive humans into extinction in a matter of years.

Conclusion

In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly in the Arctic soon, due to sea ice loss in combination with feedbacks and an upcoming El Niño coinciding with a peak in sunspots, with the potential to drive humans extinct as early as in 2025, while temperatures would continue to skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html

• National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
https://nsidc.org

• Visualization Service of Horizontal scale Observations at Polar region (Vishop)

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

• Naval Research Laboratory
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser

• NASA Worldview satellite
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• NOAA - sea surface temperature

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html

• nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html

• Insolation
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/insolation.html

• Latent Heat Buffer
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Cataclysmic Alignment

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html

• Human Extinction by 2025?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Temperatures threaten to become unbearable

Many people could face unbearable temperatures soon.

Temperature anomalies on land in the Northern Hemisphere (red) are spread out much wider and they are more than 0.5°C higher than global land+ocean anomalies (blue).

The pale green and grey trends are both long-term trends based on January 1880-August 2020 NOAA data. The short-term red and blue trends, based on January 2013-August 2020 NOAA data, are added to show the potential for a rapid rise. How could temperatures possibly rise this fast?

A rapid temperature rise could eventuate by 2026 due to a number of contributing factors:
• crossing of the latent heat and methane tipping points
• moving toward an El Niño
• entering solar cycle 25
• changes in aerosols
• feedbacks kicking in more strongly as further tipping points get crossed.

Crossing the Latent Heat and Methane Hydrate Tipping Points

The image below, updated from an earlier post, shows two such tipping points.

The August 2020 ocean temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere was 1.13°C above the 20th century average. The image shows a trend based on January 1880-August 2020 NOAA data. The latent heat tipping point is estimated to be 1°C above the 20th century average. Crossing the latent heat tipping point threatens to cause the methane hydrates tipping point to be crossed, estimated to be 1.35°C above the 20th century average.

Keep in mind that above images show temperature anomalies from the 20th century average, which is NOAA's default baseline. As an earlier analysis points out, when using a 1750 baseline and when using ocean air temperatures and higher Arctic anomalies, we may have already crossed both the 1.5°C and the 2°C thresholds that politicians at the Paris Agreement pledged would not get crossed.

Natural Variability - El Niño and Solar Cycle

Currently, we are currently in a La Niña period, which suppresses air temperatures.

Only a thin layer of sea ice remained left in the Arctic, with extent almost as low as it was in 2012 around this time of year, as discussed in the previous post. As air temperatures dropped in September 2020, Arctic sea ice extent started to increase again about September 15, 2020. This made that a patch of sea ice remained present at the surface of the Arctic Ocean, despite the dramatic thinning of the sea ice.

When an El Niño event returns, conditions will get worse.

How long will it take before we'll reach the peak of the upcoming El Niño? NOAA says:

El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.

The temperature rise is strongest in the Arctic, as illustrated by the zonal mean temperature anomaly map below. The map has latitude on the vertical axis and shows anomalies as high as 4.83°C or 8.69°F in the Arctic. The North Pole is at the top of the map, at 90° North, the Equator is in the middle, at 0°, and the South Pole is at the bottom, at -90° South. And yes, NASA's default baseline is 1951-1980, so anomalies are even higher when using a 1750 baseline.

So, what could make the difference next year is an upcoming El Niño. Solar irradiance is also on the rise, in line with the 11-year Solar Cycle.

Above image shows a NOAA graph depicting the current Solar Cycle (24) and the upcoming Solar Cycle (25).

In 2019, Tiar Dani et al. analyzed a number of studies and forecasts pointing at the maximum in the upcoming Solar Cycle occurring in the year 2023 or 2024.

The analysis found some variation in intensity between forecasts, adding images including the one on the right, which is based on linear regression and suggests that the Solar Cycle 25 may be higher than the previous Solar Cycle 24.

In 2012, Patrick (Pádraig) Malone analyzed factors critical in forecasting when an ice-free day in the Arctic sea first might occur.

Patrick concluded that once solar activity moved out of the solar minimum, Arctic sea ice extent would start to crash. Accordingly, a Blue Ocean Event could occur as early as 2021, as illustrated by the image below.

Further Tipping Points and Feedbacks

Further tipping points and feedbacks can start kicking in more strongly as one tipping point gets crossed. At least ten tipping points apply to the Arctic, as discussed in an earlier post and it looks like the latent heat tipping point has already been crossed.

Ocean heat is very high in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific, and heat continues to enter the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic sea surface temperatures and air temperature are now high since ocean heat, previously consumed by sea ice, is now coming to the surface where the sea ice has disappeared.

As above image shows, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic Ocean on September 14, 2020, were as high as 9.3°C or 16.8°F (at the location marked by green circle), compared to the daily average during the years 1981-2011.

These high sea surface temperature anomalies occur at locations where the daily average during the years 1981-2011 was around freezing point at this time of year.

Part of this ocean heat is rising into the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, resulting in high air temperatures that in turn prevent formation of sea ice thick enough to survive until the next melting season. The image on the right shows a forecast of Arctic air temperatures (2 m) that are 5°C higher than 1979-2000 (forecast for October 5, 2020, 18Z run Sep 26, 2020 06Z).

Methane Danger is High

Ominously, peak methane levels of 2762 parts per billion (ppb) were recorded by the MetOp-1 satellite on the morning of September 20, 2020, at 586 milibar (mb), as above image shows.

Mean methane levels of 1925 ppb were recorded by the MetOp-1 satellite on the morning of September 20, 2020, at 293 mb, as above image shows.

Peak methane levels of 2813 ppb were recorded by the MetOp-1 satellite on the afternoon of September 30, 2020, at 469 mb, as above image shows.

Methane has been rising most at higher altitudes over the past few years. On September 26, 2020 pm, the MetOp-1 satellite recorded a mean global methane level of 1929 ppb at 293 mb, which is equivalent to a height of 9.32 km or 30,57 ft, i.e. in the lower stratosphere over the North Pole (the top of the troposphere over the Equator is higher, at about 17 km).

Why methane is so important

As illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post, high methane levels could be reached within decades, and such a scenario could unfold even without sudden big bursts, but merely due to a continuation of a trend based on data up to 2014. This would obviously result in a huge rise in global temperature.

A huge rise in global temperature would eventuate even earlier in case of a big burst of methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

Methane's initial global warming potential (GWP) is very high. For the first few years after its release, methane is more than 150 times as strong as a greenhouse gas compared to carbon dioxide, as discussed in an earlier post.

How high are current methane levels? NOAA's May 2020 level for methane was 1874.7 ppb.

Using a GWP of 150, this translates into 1.8747 x 150 = 281.205 ppm CO₂e.

NOAA's figures are conservative, given that NOAA measures methane at marine surface level.

Anyway, when using this conservative NOAA methane figure of 1874.7 ppb which at a GWP of 150 results in 281.205 ppm CO₂e, and when using an additional 413.6 ppm for recent carbon dioxide levels (NOAA's global May 2020 CO₂ level), these two add up to 694.805 ppm CO₂e, which is 505.195 CO₂e away from the cloud feedback tipping point (1200 CO₂e) that can, on its own, raise global temperatures instantly by 8°C.

This is illustrated by the image on the right, an update from an earlier post.

An additional eruption of methane from the Arctic Ocean into the atmosphere of 505.195 CO₂e translates into 505.195 / 150 = 3.368 ppm or 3368 ppb of methane.

If the current amount of methane in the atmosphere is about 5 Gt, then 3368 ppb of methane corresponds with an amount of methane just under 9 Gt.

Coincidently, a peak level of 3369 ppb was recorded on August 31, 2018, pm. Granted, there is a large difference between a local peak level and a global mean level, but then again, a much smaller burst of methane can trigger the clouds feedback.

Even a relatively small burst of methane could trigger the clouds feedback, given that it will cause huge heating of the Arctic both directly and indirectly, in turn triggering further eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

Huge direct heating of the Arctic could occur due to methane's high immediate GWP and its even higher Local Warming Potential (LWP) given that the release takes place in the Arctic, while huge indirect heating of Arctic would occur due to the resulting decline of sea ice and of much of the permafrost on land.

Even a relatively small burst of methane could cause not only albedo losses but also releases of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide and further fast feedbacks such as a rise in clouds and water vapor, especially over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page and an earlier post.

Importantly, the initial trigger to a huge temperature rise by 2026 could be an event that is typically categorized under natural variability, such as an El Niño, increased solar irradiance or a storm causing a sudden large influx of hot, salty water into the Arctic Ocean and causing an eruption of seafloor methane. Indeed, a seemingly small forcing can result in total collapse that takes place so rapidly that any political action will be too little, too late.

The video below illustrates the importance of the Precautionary Principle. The video shows how a seemingly small bump by a forklift causes all shelves in a warehouse to collapse.

The situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• NOAA Global Climate Report - August 2020
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202008

• Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index Version 2 (MEI.v2)

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei

• What are El Niño and La Niña?

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html

• NASA zonal mean anomalies
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/zonal_means/index.html

• NOAA ISIS Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

• Multiple regression analysis predicts Arctic sea ice - by Patrick Malone (Pádraig) Malone
https://www.facebook.com/Amber.and.Patrick/posts/1140053003062976

https://www.facebook.com/notes/p%C3%A1draig-andamber-malone/multiple-regression-analysis-predicts-arctic-sea-ice/466800783721538

• Prediction of maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 using machine learning - by Tiar Dani et al.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1231/1/012022

• NOAA - Trends in Artmospheric Methane

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4

• Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide - global

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html

• When will we die?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• A rise of 18°C or 32.4°F by 2026?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-rise-of-18c-or-324f-by-2026.html

• Methane Hydrates Tipping Point threatens to get crossed
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/08/methane-hydrates-tipping-point-threatens-to-get-crossed.html

• Arctic Hit By Ten Tipping Points
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/04/arctic-hit-by-ten-tipping-points.html

• Crossing the Paris Agreement thresholds
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/crossing.html

• 2°C crossed
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/03/2c-crossed.html

• Most Important Message Ever

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html

• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/09/blue-ocean-event.html

• Record Arctic Warming

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/04/record-arctic-warming.html

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

Tuesday, August 18, 2020

Methane Hydrates Tipping Point threatens to get crossed

The July 2020 ocean temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere was 1.11°C or 2°F above the 20th century average, the highest July anomaly on record. The yellow circles onthe image below are July data and red circles are data for other months.

The July 2020 ocean temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere was well above the latent heat tipping point of 1°C above the 20th century average, threatening to soon reach the methane hydrates tipping point of 1.35°C above the 20th century average.

These are only two of ten tipping points that are hitting the Arctic, as described in a earlier post, while additionally there are further tipping points that do not specifically hinge on what happens in the Arctic, e.g. the ozone layer is very vulnerable, as described in an earlier post.

The latent heat tipping point

An earlier analysis indicates that the latent heat tipping point gets crossed when ocean temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere get higher than 1°C above the 20th century average. As above image indicates, the tipping point did get crossed temporarily on several occasions in recent years, but this year it looks to have been crossed irreversibly, as indicated by the trend.

[ Record low volume? ]

As the image on the right indicates, there still is sea ice present at the surface of the Arctic Ocean, so there still is sea ice in terms of volume. However, there now is virtually no ice left underneath the surface of the Arctic Ocean to act as a buffer.

In other words, the sea ice has virtually lost its capacity to act as a buffer to consume further heat entering the Arctic Ocean.

Once the latent heat tipping point is crossed, further incoming heat will have to get absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, instead of getting consumed by the melting of sea ice, as was previously the case.

As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat as it melts, so the temperature will not rise at the sea surface and remain at zero°C. The amount of energy that is consumed in the process of melting the ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero°C to 80°C.

Ocean Heat

Meanwhile, global heating continues and more than 90% of global heating is going into oceans.

Arctic sea ice is getting very thin and, at this time of year, it is melting rapidly, due to heat entering the Arctic Ocean from above, from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, and from rivers that end in the Arctic Ocean.

The two images below shows the difference in sea surface temperatures of the Arctic Ocean, between August 4, 2020, 12 GMT and a forecast for August 22, 2020, 12 GMT. The important difference between the two images is the shrinking of the pale blue area in the Arctic Ocean, where the sea surface temperature is below 0°C, and the increase in areas with other tints of blue where the sea surface temperature is above 0°C.

The image below, from a recent post, shows ocean surface temperatures on August 10, 2020, with very high anomalies showing up where the sea ice has disappeared. The image also shows that the Arctic Ocean in many places is very shallow (right panel).

[ from earlier post ]

The dramatic decline of the sea ice becomes more clear when looking at Arctic sea ice volume. The image below, by Nico Sun, shows volume up to August 31, 2020.

The dramatic decline of the sea ice is even more evident when looking at Arctic sea ice thickness. The image below, by Nico Sun, shows thickness up to August 31, 2020.

Below is a Universität Bremen image showing Arctic sea ice thickness on August 29, 2020.

The navy.mil animation below was run on September 15, 2020, and shows Arctic sea ice thickness over 30 days (last 8 frames are forecasts for September 16 - September 23, 2020).

The image below shows a forecast for September 15, run September 14, 2020.

The image below shows that, on August 30, 2020, the mean air temperature in the Arctic (80°N to 90°N) was still above the freshwater freezing point (0°C or 32°F or 273.15°K), well above the mean temperature for 1958-2002 and also above the year 2012 which had exceptionally high temperatures in September.

As long as the air temperature remains above the freshwater freezing point, the sea ice will keep melting from above, on top of the melting that occurs from below as a result of ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

Above ads.nipr.ac.jp image shows sea ice in 2020 (red line) still shrinking in extent. Arctic sea ice on September 13, 2020, was 3.55 million km², i.e. well below extent for that date in any other year except for 2012, when extent was as low as 3.18 million km² (on September 15 and 16, 2012).

According to NSIDC, sea ice extent on September 15, 2020, was 3.737 million km², while extent on September 17, 2012, was 3.387 million km².

The image below, updated by the University of Bremen September 10, 2020, shows Arctic sea ice extent perilously close to 2012 extent. Note that the University of Bremen has meanwhile "reprocessed the data".

On the Northern Hemisphere, ocean temperatures are very high at the moment. The image below illustrates that, showing sea surface temperatures as high as 33.8°C on August 26, 2020. For some time to come, water flowing into the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean will therefore remain higher than it used to be.

River water flowing into the Arctic Ocean also contributes to rising temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean.

Furthermore, there are numerous feedbacks, e.g. when black carbon from forest fires settles on sea ice, this causes albedo changes in a self-reinforcing feedback loop, i.e. as less sunlicht gets reflected back up into the sky, more sunlight will be absorbed by the sea ice, speeding up its decline.

As confirmed by a recent study, dramatic abrupt climate change is taking place in the Arctic, and another dangerous feedback of the rising heat is stronger storms, as also discussed in an earlier post.

Stronger storms can bring more moisture into the Arctic. Above image shows a forecast for August 29, 2020, 1200Z, with two cyclones hitting the Arctic Ocean and with 100% relative humidity at the North Pole, at 1000 hPa.

Above image shows a cyclone, forecast for August 25, 2020, with wind north of Greenland as fast as 67 km/h or 41 mph.

Above image shows that rain is forecast to fall over the North Pole on August 26, 202, 12Z.

The image on the right is a forecast for August 26, 2020, 21Z. The image shows strong wind over the North Atlantic, while another cyclone is showing up north of Greenland.

Sea ice is very thin at the moment, so it is vulnerable to get broken up into small small pieces, thus speeding up its melting, as warm water can more easily reach the broken-up pieces from all sides.

Such storms can batter the sea ice, and they can come with rain, further devastating the sea ice by speeding up melting and creating melt-pools on top of the ice with a low albedo.

The image on the right shows a forecast for August 29, 2020. Rain is showing up north of Greenland, as another cyclone is forecast to hit the area. The cyclone is forecast to have strong winds spinning counter-clockwise, thus threatening to speed up the drift of the sea ice north of Greenland toward Fram Strait.

A sequence of cyclones could in a short time push much of the thickest of the remaining sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait.

The methane hydrates tipping point

As discussed in earlier posts such as this one, the rising temperature of the Arctic Ocean threatens to destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

As the top image shows, the methane hydrates tipping point could be crossed soon, as the Arctic Ocean is heating up dramatically, which is in part the result of the latent heat tipping point getting crossed, which makes that the temperature of the Arctic Ocean can rise very rapidly.

The methane hydrates tipping point threatens to get crossed as ocean temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere become higher than 1.35°C above the 20th century average, which threatens to occur early next year.

Because the Arctic Ocean in many places is very shallow, heat can quickly reach sediments at the seafloor, which threatens to destabilize methane hydrates. The water of the Arctic Ocean is particularly shallow over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), making that the water there can warm up very quickly during summer heat peaks with heat reaching the seafloor and penetrating cracks in frozen sediments at the seafloor, which can lead to abrupt destabilization of methane hydrates contained in these sediments.

As discussed in an earlier post, the loss of subsurface sea ice is only one of ten tipping points hitting the Arctic. As the temperature of the oceans keeps rising, more heat will reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that contain vast amounts of methane, as discussed in this page and this post.

Large abrupt methane releases in one spot will quickly deplete the oxygen in shallow waters, making it harder for microbes to break down the methane there, while methane that is rising through waters that are only shallow will also be able to enter the atmosphere very quickly, leaving little time for microbes to break down the methane.

As illustrated by the 2012 image on the right, a large abrupt release of methane from hydrates in the Arctic can have more warming impact than all carbon dioxide emitted by burning of fossil fuel in a year. This is due to the high global warming potential (GWP) of methane following its release.

As this heating is concentrated in the Arctic, it will contribute to further methane releases from hydrates in the Arctic, in another self-reinforcing feedback loop.

The situation is extremely dangerous, given the vast amounts of methane present in sediments in the ESAS and given that there is very little hydroxyl in the air over the Arctic to break down the methane.

[ from earlier post ]

Ominously, the MetOp-1 satellite recorded a peak methane level of 2945 parts per billion (ppb), at 586 mb on the afternoon of August 18, 2020.

Two days later, the MetOp-1 satellite recorded a peak methane level of 2778 ppb, at 469 mb on the afternoon of August 20, 2020, while mean methane levels reached 1907 ppb.

That afternoon, on August 20, 2020, the MetOp-1 satellite recorded an even higher methane level, of 1923 ppb, at 293 mb, i.e. higher up in the atmosphere.

The danger is further illustrated by the image below, posted in February 2019 and showing a potential rise of 18°C or 32.4°F from 1750 by the year 2026.