AUGUST 14, 2015
Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens - Update 4
Meanwhile, ocean heat is at a record high and there's an El Nino that's still gaining strength. The image below illustrates that a huge amount of ocean heat has been piling up in the Atlantic Ocean, ready to be carried into the Arctic Ocean, while large amounts of heat are also entering the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait.
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| Sea surface temperatures around North America - note that the top end of the scale is 35°C or 95°F |
This ocean heat is likely to reach the Arctic Ocean in full strength by October 2015, at a time when sea ice may still be at its minimum. Absence of sea ice goes hand in hand with opportunities for storms to develop over the Arctic Ocean, which could mix surface heat all the way down to the seafloor, where methane could be contained in sediments.
AUGUST 14, 2015
The methane situation is already very dangerous, given mean methane levels that recently reached levels as high as 1840 ppb, while much higher peak levels can occur locally, as illustrated by the image below.
Methane levels appear to be rising by over 10 parts per billion a year at Barrow, Alaska. Worryingly, high peaks have been showing up there recently.
The Pacific Ocean is very warm at the moment. Warm water flows from the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. Sea surface temperatures in the Bering Strait were as high as 20.5°C (or 69.1°F) on August 4, 2015. That is 8.7°C (or 15.6°F) warmer than the water used to be. Sea surface temperatures as high as 11.8°C (53.2°F) were recorded in between Greenland and Svalbard on August 7, 2015, an anomaly of 8.5°C (15.3°F).
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| [ click on image to enlarge ] |
AUGUST 7, 2015
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| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
As the top image shows, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Bering Strait on August 4, 2015, were as high as 8.7°C (15.6°F). Such high anomalies are caused by a combination of ocean heat, of heatwaves over Alaska and Siberia extending over the Bering Strait, and of warm river water run-off.
AUGUST 7, 2015
Record High Methane Levels
As above image shows, sea surface temperatures in the Bering Strait were as high as 20.5°C (69.1°F) on August 4, 2015. As warm water flows through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean, it dives under the sea ice and becomes harder to detect by satellites that typically measure water temperatures at the surface, rather than below the surface.
AUGUST 7, 2015
The danger is that further decline of the sea ice will lead to rapid warming of the Arctic Ocean, while the presence of more open water will also increase the opportunity for strong storms to develop that can mix high sea surface temperatures all the way down to the seafloor, resulting in destabilization of sediments and triggering releases of methane that can be contained in such sediments in huge amounts.
The image below shows that global mean methane levels as high as 1840 parts per billion (ppb) were recorded on August 4, 2015. Peak methane levels that day were as high as 2477 ppb.
This peak level of 2477 ppb isn't the highest recorded the year. As the image below shows and as discussed in a previous post, methane levels as high as 2845 ppb were recorded on April 25, 2015. The average of the daily peaks for this year up to now is 2355 ppb. Very worrying about the above image are the high levels of methane showing up over the Arctic Ocean.
As above image also shows, the mean methane level of 1840 ppb is in line with expectations, as methane levels rise over the course of the year, to reach a maximum in September. This mean level of 1840 ppb is higher than any mean level since records began.
The image below shows all the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) annual means that are available, i.e. for the period 1984 through to 2013.
As above image shows, a polynomial trendline based on these WMO data (for the period 1984 through to 2013) points at a doubling of mean global methane levels by about 2040. The added NOAA data are the highest mean in 2014, i.e. 1839 ppb recorded on September 7, 2014, and the above-mentioned level of 1840 ppb recorded on August 4, 2015.
As said, mean global methane levels last year reached its peak in September and the same is likely to occur this year. In other words, this new record is likely to be superseded by even higher levels soon.
The image on the right shows the steady rise of the highest mean daily methane levels that have been recorded recently, indicating that a continued rise can be expected that would put another highest mean level for 2015 on the trendline of above image soon.
Again, the danger is that a warming Arctic Ocean will trigger further methane releases from the seafloor, leading to rapid local warming that in turn will trigger further methane releases, in a vicious cycle of runway warming.
As illustrated by the image on the right, at a 10-year timescale, the current global release of methane from all anthropogenic sources exceeds all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions as agents of global warming.
Over the next decade or so, methane emissions are already now more important than carbon dioxide emissions in driving the rate of global warming, and this situation looks set to get worse fast.
Unlike carbon dioxide, methane's GWP does rise as more of it is released. Higher methane levels cause depletion of hydroxyl, which is the main way for methane to be broken down in the atmosphere.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as discussed at the Climate Plan.
The image below shows that global mean methane levels as high as 1840 parts per billion (ppb) were recorded on August 4, 2015. Peak methane levels that day were as high as 2477 ppb.
This peak level of 2477 ppb isn't the highest recorded the year. As the image below shows and as discussed in a previous post, methane levels as high as 2845 ppb were recorded on April 25, 2015. The average of the daily peaks for this year up to now is 2355 ppb. Very worrying about the above image are the high levels of methane showing up over the Arctic Ocean.
As above image also shows, the mean methane level of 1840 ppb is in line with expectations, as methane levels rise over the course of the year, to reach a maximum in September. This mean level of 1840 ppb is higher than any mean level since records began.
The image below shows all the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) annual means that are available, i.e. for the period 1984 through to 2013.
As above image shows, a polynomial trendline based on these WMO data (for the period 1984 through to 2013) points at a doubling of mean global methane levels by about 2040. The added NOAA data are the highest mean in 2014, i.e. 1839 ppb recorded on September 7, 2014, and the above-mentioned level of 1840 ppb recorded on August 4, 2015.
As said, mean global methane levels last year reached its peak in September and the same is likely to occur this year. In other words, this new record is likely to be superseded by even higher levels soon.The image on the right shows the steady rise of the highest mean daily methane levels that have been recorded recently, indicating that a continued rise can be expected that would put another highest mean level for 2015 on the trendline of above image soon.
Again, the danger is that a warming Arctic Ocean will trigger further methane releases from the seafloor, leading to rapid local warming that in turn will trigger further methane releases, in a vicious cycle of runway warming.
As illustrated by the image on the right, at a 10-year timescale, the current global release of methane from all anthropogenic sources exceeds all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions as agents of global warming.
Over the next decade or so, methane emissions are already now more important than carbon dioxide emissions in driving the rate of global warming, and this situation looks set to get worse fast.
Unlike carbon dioxide, methane's GWP does rise as more of it is released. Higher methane levels cause depletion of hydroxyl, which is the main way for methane to be broken down in the atmosphere.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as discussed at the Climate Plan.
AUGUST 3, 2015
The image below is based on a nullschool.net forecast for August 6, 2015, run on August 2, 2015. It shows temperatures as high as 26.4°C (or 79.4°F) in the north of Canada (green circle). The inset, based on a Climate Reanalyzer forecast for that date, shows that this is as much as 20°C (or 36°F) higher than temperatures that were common in the area only recently, i.e. from 1979-2000.
The satellite image below, captured on August 2, 2015, shows a close-up of the area, with the green circle in the same location as on above image.
Above image shows that there still is some solid ice present to the right of the green circle. This ice may not be able to survive such high temperatures for long. Furthermore, above image shows what looks like smoke plumes from wildfires to the left of the green circle, another sign of the high temperatures in the area and another feedback that will accelerate decline of the snow and ice cover.
The satellite image below, captured on August 2, 2015, shows a close-up of the area, with the green circle in the same location as on above image.
Above image shows that there still is some solid ice present to the right of the green circle. This ice may not be able to survive such high temperatures for long. Furthermore, above image shows what looks like smoke plumes from wildfires to the left of the green circle, another sign of the high temperatures in the area and another feedback that will accelerate decline of the snow and ice cover.
JULY 31, 2015
Due to warm ocean waters and to heatwaves on land that extended over the Arctic Ocean, while warming up rivers ending into the Arctic Ocean, the sea ice has taken a battering over the past few weeks, as illustrated by the images below.
Above image shows the last bit of thick (5 m) sea ice in the Canadian Archipelago, which became dislodged on July 8, 2015. It looks set to be virtually gone by August 7, 2015, according to the 30-day Naval Research Laboratory animation below, and as also discussed in greater detail in a recent post.
Above image shows the last bit of thick (5 m) sea ice in the Canadian Archipelago, which became dislodged on July 8, 2015. It looks set to be virtually gone by August 7, 2015, according to the 30-day Naval Research Laboratory animation below, and as also discussed in greater detail in a recent post.
JULY 31, 2015
The situation at the north-eastern tip of Greenland doesn't look much better, as illustrated by the image below.
The comparison image below also shows the north-eastern tip of Greenland on July 5, 2015 (top), and on July 31, 2015 (bottom). The bottom image shows water in many places, pushing the last pieces of thick ice into the Wandel Sea and Fram Strait .
What caused the dramatic melting of this thick ice? The left panel of above image shows temperatures. On July 29, 2015, temperatures as high as 23.1°C (or 73,7°F) were recorded on the north coast of Victoria Island, in the Canadian Archipelago (green circle where the arrow points at). The satellite image on the right, captured that same day, shows that hardly any ice was left in the waters surrounding the area.
The comparison image below also shows the north-eastern tip of Greenland on July 5, 2015 (top), and on July 31, 2015 (bottom). The bottom image shows water in many places, pushing the last pieces of thick ice into the Wandel Sea and Fram Strait .
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| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
Until now, the thicker multi-year sea ice used to survive the melting season, giving the sea ice strength for the next year, by acting as a buffer to absorb heat that would otherwise melt away the thinner ice. Without multi-year sea ice, the Arctic will be in a bad shape in coming years.
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| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
JULY 31, 2015
Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens - Update 2
So, will the sea ice collapse this year? Consider the following four points:
Volume - The image on the top right shows sea ice volume as calculated by PIOMAS at the University of Washington. It shows that in June, volume was less than 2015 in only four years, i.e. 2010 through to 2013. The situation has deteriorated much in July 2015, and looks set to deteriorate even further.
Thickness - Volume is calculated by looking at both thickness and extent. Thickness is looking much worse than it did in the years 2012 through to 2014, as illustrated by above image.
In my experience, sea ice thickness hasn't looked this bad for this time of the year since records began, especially when taking the loss of multi-year ice into account, as also illustrated by the full-width above image.
Extent - Sea ice extent on July 31 was only outside the 2 standard deviations (shaded area) in the years 2007, 2011 and 2012, as illustrated by the image mid right. The dark blue line marks the 2015 extent, with the dot indicating extent on July 31, 2015.
Area - Similarly, Arctic sea ice area is illustrated by the image on the right. For a description of the difference between extent and area, view this NSIDC FAQ page. The bottom right image marks Arctic sea ice area as on July 30, 2015. The yellow marker indicates the situation for the year 2015 on this date. The only years with less sea ice area at this time of the year were 2007, 2011 and 2012.
Also consider that 2015 features very high sea surface temperatures and an El Niño that is still gaining in strength. Thick sea ice appears to be shattered, as illustrated by the satellite images. In conclusion, sea ice looks set to take a further battering over the next few weeks and could end
up at a record low thickness, extent, area and volume around half September 2015.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the image below.
Above image shows a trendline (shaded area) based on satellite data from 1979-2014, with annual minimum volume figures calculated by PIOMAS. The shaded area points at a total disappearance of the sea ice as early as September 2018. The width of the shaded area reflects natural variability, but natural variability could be wider than that, as illustrated by the fact that minimum volume in the years 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2012 was lower than the shaded area. In other words, disappearance of the sea ice could occur even earlier than September 2018 and if things get really bad, collapse could even occur as early as September this year.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan.
Volume - The image on the top right shows sea ice volume as calculated by PIOMAS at the University of Washington. It shows that in June, volume was less than 2015 in only four years, i.e. 2010 through to 2013. The situation has deteriorated much in July 2015, and looks set to deteriorate even further.
Thickness - Volume is calculated by looking at both thickness and extent. Thickness is looking much worse than it did in the years 2012 through to 2014, as illustrated by above image.In my experience, sea ice thickness hasn't looked this bad for this time of the year since records began, especially when taking the loss of multi-year ice into account, as also illustrated by the full-width above image.
Extent - Sea ice extent on July 31 was only outside the 2 standard deviations (shaded area) in the years 2007, 2011 and 2012, as illustrated by the image mid right. The dark blue line marks the 2015 extent, with the dot indicating extent on July 31, 2015.
Also consider that 2015 features very high sea surface temperatures and an El Niño that is still gaining in strength. Thick sea ice appears to be shattered, as illustrated by the satellite images. In conclusion, sea ice looks set to take a further battering over the next few weeks and could end
up at a record low thickness, extent, area and volume around half September 2015.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the image below.
Above image shows a trendline (shaded area) based on satellite data from 1979-2014, with annual minimum volume figures calculated by PIOMAS. The shaded area points at a total disappearance of the sea ice as early as September 2018. The width of the shaded area reflects natural variability, but natural variability could be wider than that, as illustrated by the fact that minimum volume in the years 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2012 was lower than the shaded area. In other words, disappearance of the sea ice could occur even earlier than September 2018 and if things get really bad, collapse could even occur as early as September this year.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan.
JULY 28, 2015
There is a growing chance that the sea ice will collapse over the next few weeks, due to heavy melting and storms speeding up the flow of sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean into the Atlantic Ocean.
An example of such storms is shown on the animation below. This is a forecast for July 31, 2015, showing cyclonic winds at the center of the Arctic Ocean, with strong winds moving sea ice down Fram Strait.
The above situation alone is not likely to trigger sea ice collapse. It is more likely to be short-lived. However, there is a growing possibility for such storms to emerge and drive the melting sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean into the Atlantic Ocean.
As the situation in the Arctic further deteriorates, feedbacks can be expected to kick in with growing strength.
One of these feedbacks is the growing amount of heat (due to both latent heat and albedo changes) that will have to be absorbed by the Arctic Ocean as the sea ice disappears, and that will accelerate warming of the water of the Arctic Ocean.
Another feedback is a changing jet stream, as illustrated in above animation. This, in combination with the presence of more open water, can be expected to cause increasingly intense storms over the Arctic to emerge. Such storms can bring more heat into the Arctic Ocean, especially during heatwaves over North America and Russia. Such heatwaves can further cause surface heat to be mixed down to the seafloor, especially in the many places where the Arctic Ocean is very shallow. This can in turn cause destabilization of hydrates, resulting in huge amounts of methane to be abruptly released from the seafloor.
Methane itself is yet another feedback that will accelerate warming in the Arctic, in turn threatening to trigger further methane releases in a spiral of self-reinforcing positive feedback loops.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as discussed at the Climate Plan.
An example of such storms is shown on the animation below. This is a forecast for July 31, 2015, showing cyclonic winds at the center of the Arctic Ocean, with strong winds moving sea ice down Fram Strait.
The above situation alone is not likely to trigger sea ice collapse. It is more likely to be short-lived. However, there is a growing possibility for such storms to emerge and drive the melting sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean into the Atlantic Ocean.
As the situation in the Arctic further deteriorates, feedbacks can be expected to kick in with growing strength.
One of these feedbacks is the growing amount of heat (due to both latent heat and albedo changes) that will have to be absorbed by the Arctic Ocean as the sea ice disappears, and that will accelerate warming of the water of the Arctic Ocean.
Another feedback is a changing jet stream, as illustrated in above animation. This, in combination with the presence of more open water, can be expected to cause increasingly intense storms over the Arctic to emerge. Such storms can bring more heat into the Arctic Ocean, especially during heatwaves over North America and Russia. Such heatwaves can further cause surface heat to be mixed down to the seafloor, especially in the many places where the Arctic Ocean is very shallow. This can in turn cause destabilization of hydrates, resulting in huge amounts of methane to be abruptly released from the seafloor.
Methane itself is yet another feedback that will accelerate warming in the Arctic, in turn threatening to trigger further methane releases in a spiral of self-reinforcing positive feedback loops.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as discussed at the Climate Plan.
JULY 25, 2015
People's emissions are causing the planet to heat up and more than 93% of this heat goes into the oceans.
People have measured ocean temperatures for a long time. Reliable records go back to at least 1880. Ever since records began, the oceans were colder than they are now. NOAA analysis shows that, on the Northern Hemisphere, the 20th century average for June is 16.4°C (61.5°F). In June 2015, it was a record 0.87°C (1.57°F) higher.
Back in history, there have been times when it was warmer. The last time when it was warmer than today, during the Eemian Period, peak temperature was only a few tenths of a degree higher than today, according to the IPCC. In those days, there was huge melting, accompanied by extreme storms and sea levels that were 5 to 9 m higher than today.
People have measured ocean temperatures for a long time. Reliable records go back to at least 1880. Ever since records began, the oceans were colder than they are now. NOAA analysis shows that, on the Northern Hemisphere, the 20th century average for June is 16.4°C (61.5°F). In June 2015, it was a record 0.87°C (1.57°F) higher.
Back in history, there have been times when it was warmer. The last time when it was warmer than today, during the Eemian Period, peak temperature was only a few tenths of a degree higher than today, according to the IPCC. In those days, there was huge melting, accompanied by extreme storms and sea levels that were 5 to 9 m higher than today.
In many ways, the situation now already looks worse than it was in the Eemian. "The warm Atlantic surface current was weaker in the high latitude during the Eemian than today", says Henning Bauch. Furthermore, as illustrated by above image, contained in ocean temperature data from 1880 for the Northern Hemisphere is a polynomial trendline that points at a rise of almost 2°C by 2030. This indicates that temperatures across the Arctic Ocean could soon be even higher than the peak temperature was back in the Eemian Period. Indeed, the Arctic Ocean temperature is rising at a terrifying pace, the more so given that there seems to be no end in sight soon for this rise.
This rise of almost 2°C by 2030 is not limited to the month of June. As above image shows, it applies to the 12-months period from July 2014 to June 2015 as well.
In some places, the Arctic Ocean is already very warm. Sea surface temperatures around North America have increased to very high levels and they are threatening to further raise the temperature of the Arctic Ocean.
In some places, the Arctic Ocean is already very warm. Sea surface temperatures around North America have increased to very high levels and they are threatening to further raise the temperature of the Arctic Ocean.
JULY 25, 2015
The Arctic sea ice is on the verge of collapse, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. This dramatic decline of the sea ice in 2015 is the result of a combination of factors, including:
Such feedbacks are further discussed at the feedbacks page, including the danger that further warming of the Arctic Ocean will unleash huge methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean seafloor, in turn driving temperatures up even higher and causing more intense wildfires, heatwaves and further extreme weather events.
- High levels of greenhouse gases over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the screenshot below showing high carbon dioxide concentrations over the Arctic (from NASA video).
Furthermore, methane levels are very high over the Arctic. An earlier image showed methane levels as high as 2512 parts per billion on July 17, 2015, with high methane levels north of Greenland that also showed up on an earlier image at this post. - High levels of ocean heat in the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the image below showing high sea surface temperatures off the east coast of North America; much of this ocean heat will be carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean over the next few months.
- High sea surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.
- High air temperatures over North America and Russia extending over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below showing a location well inside the Arctic Circle where temperatures as high as 37.1°C (98.78°F) were recorded on July 2, 2015. (green circle).
- Wildfires triggered by these heatwaves resulting in darkening compounds settling on snow and ice, making it more prone to melting, as illustrated by the image below showing smoke reaching high up into the Beaufort Sea on July 22, 2015.
- Very warm river water running into the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below, showing sea surface temperatures as high as 19°C (66.2°F) off the coast of Alaska on July 19, 2015.
Such feedbacks are further discussed at the feedbacks page, including the danger that further warming of the Arctic Ocean will unleash huge methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean seafloor, in turn driving temperatures up even higher and causing more intense wildfires, heatwaves and further extreme weather events.
JULY 24, 2015
As the comparison image below shows, the last bit of thick sea ice has become dislodged from its location in the Canadian Archipelago and is forecast to be floating along with the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. The left panel shows the situation on July 19, 2015, while the right panel shows a forecast for July 31, 2015, run on July 23, 2015.
One reason for this development is of course the heavy melting that has taken place in this area. But what has made this thick sea ice move so strongly? The reason for this is a combination of wind, sea currents and meltwater running off the coasts of North America and Greenland. This has been persistently pushing this thick ice in this direction, as illustrated by the Naval Research Laboratory animation below.
One reason for this development is of course the heavy melting that has taken place in this area. But what has made this thick sea ice move so strongly? The reason for this is a combination of wind, sea currents and meltwater running off the coasts of North America and Greenland. This has been persistently pushing this thick ice in this direction, as illustrated by the Naval Research Laboratory animation below.
JULY 24, 2015
Thick Sea Ice Dislodged
The screenshot below from arctic-io shows the sea ice on July 23, 2015, with an inset showing a rotated outcut from a Naval Research Laboratory ice thickness map for that date.
The animation below shows a 5-day forecast of ice speed and drift up to July 27, 2015, starting from and run on July 23, 2015.
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| [ click on image to enlarge ] |
JULY 24, 2015
Thick Sea Ice Dislodged
Furthermore, there has been a lot of smoke from wildfires in North America for some time. The image below shows smoke reaching far into the Beaufort Sea on July 22, 2015.
When smoke settles on snow and ice, it decreases albedo and makes it more prone to melting.
Seismic activity could also have contributed to this development. As the snow and ice cover on land disappears, isostatic rebound occurs, i.e. the land moves upward. Furthermore, an earthquake with a magnitude of 3.6 on the Richter scale was registered in Baffin Bay on July 22, 2015.
Above animation shows the last bit of thick sea ice becoming dislodged from its location in the Canadian Archipelago, from July 21, 2015, through to July 24, 2015.
Albert Kallio comments: "The more ice moves, the more heat it can pick up from the ocean - and melt. Also, the overturning of sea water in the ocean increases in the increasingly open sea areas - bringing heat up to the surface - and into contact with ice that then melts faster."
When smoke settles on snow and ice, it decreases albedo and makes it more prone to melting.
Seismic activity could also have contributed to this development. As the snow and ice cover on land disappears, isostatic rebound occurs, i.e. the land moves upward. Furthermore, an earthquake with a magnitude of 3.6 on the Richter scale was registered in Baffin Bay on July 22, 2015.
Above animation shows the last bit of thick sea ice becoming dislodged from its location in the Canadian Archipelago, from July 21, 2015, through to July 24, 2015.
[ hat tip to Patrick McNulty for contributions to this post ]
JULY 21, 2015
Of all the excess heat that results from people's emissions, 93.4% goes into oceans. Accordingly, ocean heat has strongly increased over the years.
NOAA analysis shows that, for the oceans on the Northern Hemisphere, the June 2015 sea surface temperature was at a record high 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), as also illustrated by the graph below.
As the above image shows, sea surface temperature anomalies around North America are very high, threatening to further raise temperatures of the Arctic Ocean, which already has very high sea surface temperatures, as also illustrated by the image below.
NOAA analysis shows that, for the oceans on the Northern Hemisphere, the June 2015 sea surface temperature was at a record high 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), as also illustrated by the graph below.
The most recent 12-month period, July 2014–June 2015, also broke the record (set just last month) for the all-time warmest 12-month period in the 135-year period of record.
As the above image shows, sea surface temperature anomalies around North America are very high, threatening to further raise temperatures of the Arctic Ocean, which already has very high sea surface temperatures, as also illustrated by the image below.
JULY 21, 2015
As the image below shows, sea surface temperatures as high as 19°C (66.2°F) were recorded in the Bering Strait on July 19, 2015.
JULY 21, 2015
Ocean Temperatures At Record High
The snow depth comparison below shows the situation on July 20, 2015, on the left and a forecast for July 27, 2015, on the right. The green lines indicate areas where sea ice is at melting point. Note the decline of snow cover on Greenland and the Himalayas.
As the continued snow decline on Greenland also illustrates, high temperatures can be expected to keep causing further decline of the snow and ice cover for many weeks to come, given that the minimum sea ice extent is typically reached about half September.
JULY 21, 2015
Ocean Temperatures At Record High
As the image below shows, sea surface temperatures as high as 10.1°C (50.1°F) were recorded in Baffin Bay, off the west coast of Greenland, on July 20, 2015.
On July 21, 2015, temperatures as high as 14°C (57.1°F) were recorded east of Svalbard, an anomaly of 9.7°C (17.4°F), as illustrated by the image below, created with nullschool.net images.
The danger is that warm water will enter the Arctic Ocean and cause the Arctic sea ice to collapse, which could make the Arctic Ocean absorb even more heat. This could unleash huge methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean's seafloor, in turn driving temperatures up even higher and causing more extreme weather events, wildfires, etc.
JULY 19, 2015
The image below compares the Arctic sea ice thickness (in m) on July 15, for the years from 2012 (left panel) to 2015 (right panel), using Naval Research Laboratory images.
The image below compares the Arctic sea ice concentration (in %) on July 18, for the years from 2012 (left panel) to 2015 (right panel), using Naval Research Laboratory images.
Above images show the dramatic decline of the sea ice in 2015, both in thickness and in concentration.
In terms of thickness, sea ice has been reduced by more than one meter in many places, such as north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, all in the time span of just one month.
The dramatic fall in sea ice concentration also becomes apparent when comparing recent sea ice concentration (July 18, 2015, above right) with sea ice concentration back in May 2015 (image right, May 1, 2015).
This dramatic decline of the sea ice in 2015 is the result of a combination of factors, including:
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| Click on image to enlarge |
JULY 19, 2015
The image below compares the Arctic sea ice concentration (in %) on July 18, for the years from 2012 (left panel) to 2015 (right panel), using Naval Research Laboratory images.
In terms of thickness, sea ice has been reduced by more than one meter in many places, such as north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, all in the time span of just one month.
The dramatic fall in sea ice concentration also becomes apparent when comparing recent sea ice concentration (July 18, 2015, above right) with sea ice concentration back in May 2015 (image right, May 1, 2015).
JULY 19, 2015
This dramatic decline of the sea ice in 2015 is the result of a combination of factors, including:
- High levels of greenhouse gases over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below, showing that on July 17, 2015 (pm), levels as high as 2512 parts per billion were recorded at 6,041 m (19,820 ft) altitude, while mean methane levels were 1830 parts per billion at this altitude.
- High levels of ocean heat, as illustrated by the image below showing high sea surface temperatures off the east coast of North America; much of this ocean heat will be carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean over the next few months.
- High air temperatures over North America and Siberia extending over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below showing a temperature of 23.1°C (73.7°F), recorded on July 19, 2015, at Banks Island, in the Canadian Archipelago (green circle).
- Wildfires triggered by these heatwaves resulting in darkening compounds settling on snow and ice, as illustrated by the image below showing smoke covering a wide area on July 19, 2015, from the east Siberia over North America to the southern tip of Greenland.
- Very warm river water running into the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below, showing sea surface temperatures as high as 19°C (66.2°F) off the coast of Alaska on July 12-15, 2015.
JULY 19, 2015
Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens - Update 1
The Climate Reanalyzer image below shows the high sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean, and where water enter the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait, on July 19, 2015.
With still two months of melting to go before the sea ice can be expected to reach its minimum for 2015, the threat of sea ice collapse is ominous. The Arctic-News Blog has been warning for years about the growing chance of a collapse of the sea ice, in which case huge amounts of sunlight that previously were reflected back into space, as well as heat that previously went into melting the ice, will then instead have to be absorbed by the water, resulting in a dramatic rise of sea surface temperatures.
With still two months of melting to go before the sea ice can be expected to reach its minimum for 2015, the threat of sea ice collapse is ominous. The Arctic-News Blog has been warning for years about the growing chance of a collapse of the sea ice, in which case huge amounts of sunlight that previously were reflected back into space, as well as heat that previously went into melting the ice, will then instead have to be absorbed by the water, resulting in a dramatic rise of sea surface temperatures.
JULY 19, 2015
Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens - Update 1
More open water will then come with an increased chance of storms that can cause high sea surface temperatures to be mixed down all the way to seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which in many cases is less than 50 m (164 ft) deep. This is the case for the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, where experts estimate that huge amounts of methane are contained in subsea sediments. Already now, sea surface temperatures as high as 10°C (~50°F) are recorded there, as illustrated by the image below.
Massive amounts of ocean heat will be carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean over the next few months. The combined result of high sea surface temperatures being mixed down to the seafloor and the ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can be expected to result in dramatic methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean seafloor by October 2015.
Massive amounts of ocean heat will be carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean over the next few months. The combined result of high sea surface temperatures being mixed down to the seafloor and the ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can be expected to result in dramatic methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean seafloor by October 2015.
JULY 10, 2015
Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens
The image below compares the Arctic sea ice thickness on July 14, 2012 (left panel) and on July 14, 2015 (right panel), using Naval Research Laboratory images.
JULY 10, 2015
Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens
The dramatic decline of the sea ice, especially north of North America, is the result of a combination of factors, including:
With still two months of melting to go before the sea ice can be expected to reach its minimum for 2015, the threat of sea ice collapse is ominous. The Arctic-News Blog has been warning for years about the growing chance of a collapse of the sea ice, in which case huge amounts of sunlight that previously were reflected back into space, as well as heat that previously went into melting the ice, will then instead have to be absorbed by the water, resulting in a dramatic rise of sea surface temperatures.
- very high levels of greenhouse gases over the Arctic Ocean
- very high levels of ocean heat
- heatwaves over North America and Siberia extending high air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean
- wildfires triggered by these heatwaves resulting in darkening compounds settling on snow and ice
- very warm river water running into the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.
With still two months of melting to go before the sea ice can be expected to reach its minimum for 2015, the threat of sea ice collapse is ominous. The Arctic-News Blog has been warning for years about the growing chance of a collapse of the sea ice, in which case huge amounts of sunlight that previously were reflected back into space, as well as heat that previously went into melting the ice, will then instead have to be absorbed by the water, resulting in a dramatic rise of sea surface temperatures.
JULY 10, 2015
Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens
More open water will then come with an increased chance of storms that can cause high sea surface temperatures to be mixed down all the way to seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which in many cases is less than 50 m (164 ft) deep.
Meanwhile, ocean heat is accumulating off the coast of North America, as illustrated by the image below showing sea surface temperature as high as 31.8°C (89.24°F) on July 8-9, 2015.
Massive amounts of ocean heat will be carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean over the next few months. The combined result of high sea surface temperatures being mixed down to the seafloor and the ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can be expected to result in dramatic methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean seafloor by October 2015.
Currently, methane levels are high, especially north of Greenland, as illustrated by the image below showing that on July 10, 2015 (am), levels as high as 2416 parts per billion were recorded at 6,041 m (19,820 ft) altitude, while mean methane levels also reached 1831 parts per billion at this altitude.
Meanwhile, ocean heat is accumulating off the coast of North America, as illustrated by the image below showing sea surface temperature as high as 31.8°C (89.24°F) on July 8-9, 2015.
Massive amounts of ocean heat will be carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean over the next few months. The combined result of high sea surface temperatures being mixed down to the seafloor and the ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can be expected to result in dramatic methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean seafloor by October 2015.
Currently, methane levels are high, especially north of Greenland, as illustrated by the image below showing that on July 10, 2015 (am), levels as high as 2416 parts per billion were recorded at 6,041 m (19,820 ft) altitude, while mean methane levels also reached 1831 parts per billion at this altitude.
JULY 10, 2015
Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Threatens
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan.
JULY 8, 2015
Earlier this month, the jet stream was forecast to move over the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia on July 8, 2015, 12:00 UTC, in one, strong, long stream of wind, as discussed in the previous post and depicted below.
The situation has meanwhile been adjusted in a more recent forecast. This recent forecast shows the jet stream getting fractured over Siberia on July 8, 2015, 12:00 UTC, resulting in a sequence of vertical wind streams. This is a new development, rather unknown to the forecasting model that works on the basis of the jet stream flowing horizontally in one strong and narrow stream around the globe.
A further forecast has been added in the bottom panel, i.e. for July 12, 2015, 12:00 UTC, showing the jet stream moving well over the Arctic Ocean in two places, over the East Siberian Sea and over the Canadian Archipelago.
Fracturing of the jet stream and alignment along longitude, rather than latitude, is a worrying development. It is the most extreme form of what is described at Feedbacks in the Arctic as the "Open Doors" feedback or feedback #10, a feedback that makes it easier for warm air to move into the Arctic and for cold air move out of the Arctic, each of which will further contribute to a smaller temperature difference between the Equator and the North Pole, thus further changing the jet stream, in a self-reinforcing spiral.
The jet stream used to act as a barrier, keeping cold air in the Arctic and keeping temperate air in the temperate zone. As the jet stream fractures, more extreme weather - including more intense heatwaves - can be expected.
The result is further acceleration of warming in the Arctic, due to direct sunlight, due to warm wind carried north as the jet stream changes, due to warm water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean, due to soot from wildfires settling on the snow and ice, causing their further demise, etc.
The situation has meanwhile been adjusted in a more recent forecast. This recent forecast shows the jet stream getting fractured over Siberia on July 8, 2015, 12:00 UTC, resulting in a sequence of vertical wind streams. This is a new development, rather unknown to the forecasting model that works on the basis of the jet stream flowing horizontally in one strong and narrow stream around the globe.
A further forecast has been added in the bottom panel, i.e. for July 12, 2015, 12:00 UTC, showing the jet stream moving well over the Arctic Ocean in two places, over the East Siberian Sea and over the Canadian Archipelago.
Fracturing of the jet stream and alignment along longitude, rather than latitude, is a worrying development. It is the most extreme form of what is described at Feedbacks in the Arctic as the "Open Doors" feedback or feedback #10, a feedback that makes it easier for warm air to move into the Arctic and for cold air move out of the Arctic, each of which will further contribute to a smaller temperature difference between the Equator and the North Pole, thus further changing the jet stream, in a self-reinforcing spiral.
The jet stream used to act as a barrier, keeping cold air in the Arctic and keeping temperate air in the temperate zone. As the jet stream fractures, more extreme weather - including more intense heatwaves - can be expected.
The result is further acceleration of warming in the Arctic, due to direct sunlight, due to warm wind carried north as the jet stream changes, due to warm water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean, due to soot from wildfires settling on the snow and ice, causing their further demise, etc.
JULY 8, 2015
Fracturing of the Jet Stream
The image below illustrates the impact of warm river water. Off the coast of Anadyr, in East Siberia, waters reached a temperature of 15.4°C (59.7°F) on July 5, 2015, a 9.2°C (16.6°F) anomaly.
The image below also shows the impact of warm water from rivers in Alaska. Major melting took place on St Lawrence Island, as evident by the low sea surface temperatures around the Island on July 2, 2015 (left panel), while by July 6, 2015, much of this colder water had mixed with the warmer water moving up the Bering Strait from the Pacific Ocean and with the warm river water from Siberia and Alaska.
The image below also shows the impact of warm water from rivers in Alaska. Major melting took place on St Lawrence Island, as evident by the low sea surface temperatures around the Island on July 2, 2015 (left panel), while by July 6, 2015, much of this colder water had mixed with the warmer water moving up the Bering Strait from the Pacific Ocean and with the warm river water from Siberia and Alaska.
JULY 8, 2015
Fracturing of the Jet Stream
With ocean heat at very high levels, the danger is that, as temperatures keep rising, further methane hydrates will get destabilized and further amounts of methane will be released in the Arctic. High methane levels have already been showing up for years over the Arctic Ocean, indicating that methane releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean are already taking place.
Above image shows that, on July 6, 2015, high methane levels show up north of Greenland (yellow oval). This could be a result of the heavy melting that is taking place on Greenland, exposing methane hydrates contained in the ice there. Hydrate destabilization on Greenland is discussed as feedback#21 at Feedbacks in the Arctic. Loss of ice mass on Greenland has fallen dramatically over the years and looks set to get even worse, as illustrated by the image below.
Over the next few months, waters in the Arctic Ocean can be expected to further warm up and sea ice to further decline, all making that the situation can only be expected to worsen.
Above image shows that, on July 6, 2015, high methane levels show up north of Greenland (yellow oval). This could be a result of the heavy melting that is taking place on Greenland, exposing methane hydrates contained in the ice there. Hydrate destabilization on Greenland is discussed as feedback#21 at Feedbacks in the Arctic. Loss of ice mass on Greenland has fallen dramatically over the years and looks set to get even worse, as illustrated by the image below.
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| Dramatic ice mass loss on Greenland looks set to get even worse. See also discussion at the Controversy page. |
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan.
JULY 2, 2015
The image below illustrates the intensity of the heatwave over western Europe, with temperatures forecast to keep hitting the top end of the scale for days to come.
Global warming is strengthening heatwaves. The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world, so the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator is getting smaller. It is this temperature difference that powers the jet stream. The result is that the speed at which the jet stream circumnavigates the globe is falling. Furthermore, the path of the jet stream is changing, sometimes extending far to the north, then deeper to the south, just like a river will meander more where the land is flatter.
Above image illustrates that these changes to the jet stream make that warm air from the south can more easily move up north, to higher latitudes, while cold air from the Arctic can more easily move down to lower latitudes, in both cases further decreasing the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator, which makes these changes to the jet stream a self-reinforcing feedback loop that is rapidly making the situation worse.
While such developments have been documented for years, e.g. see this feedbacks page, the media rarely inform people about them. And while the media do cover the suffering caused by the heatwaves that have been hitting populous countries such as India, Pakistan, the U.S., Spain and France recently, less attention is given to heatwaves hitting the Arctic.
JULY 2, 2015
High temperatures close to the Arctic Ocean are very worrying, for a number of reasons, including:
The video below was created by Stuart Thrupp from a NASA animation showing carbon monoxide from Alaska wildfires spreading over the Arctic from June 17th to 29th, 2015.
The heatwaves that hit Alaska and Russia recently are now followed up by a heatwave in East Siberia.
The image below shows a location well inside the Arctic Circle where temperatures as high as 37.1°C (98.78°F) were recorded on July 2, 2015. The top panel shows temperatures, while the bottom panel also shows the depth of the Arctic Ocean and the location of the Gakkel Ridge, in between the northern tip of Greenland and the Laptev Sea.
- They are examples of heatwaves that can increasingly extend far to the north, all the way into the Arctic Ocean, speeding up warming of the Arctic Ocean seabed and threatening to unleash huge methane eruptions.
- They set the scene for wildfires that emit not only greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, but also pollutants such as carbon monoxide (that depletes hydroxyl that could otherwise break down methane) and black carbon (that when settling on ice causes it to absorb more sunlight).
- They cause warming of the water of rivers that end up in the Arctic Ocean, thus resulting in additional sea ice decline and warming of the Arctic Ocean seabed.
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| June 24, 2015 - Smoke from wildfires in Alaska - from: wunderground.com |
JULY 2, 2015
The heatwaves that hit Alaska and Russia recently are now followed up by a heatwave in East Siberia.
JULY 2, 2015
The image below shows a location well inside the Arctic Circle where temperatures as high as 37.1°C (98.78°F) were recorded on July 2, 2015. The top panel shows temperatures, while the bottom panel also shows the depth of the Arctic Ocean and the location of the Gakkel Ridge, in between the northern tip of Greenland and the Laptev Sea.
JULY 2, 2015
As the image below shows, the jet stream is forecast to move up high into the Arctic north of Siberia over the next few days. The image shows the jet stream as at July 8, 2015.
The image below shows a forecast of temperature anomalies for July 7, 2015.
The four images below illustrate how the heatwave is forecast to develop over the next few days (hat tip to Mark Richardson).
The image on the right, also created with a Climate Reanalyzer image, shows rain over the Arctic, over the EastSiberian Sea and over an area close to the North Pole.
Rain over sea ice will create melt ponds with associated loss in albedo (reflectivity), making that light that was previously reflected back into space by the sea ice will instead be absorbed by the water, further speeding up the demise of the sea ice.
The picture below was taken July 2, 2015, byWebCam#1, mounted on a satellite-reporting buoy. The camera provides a wide-angle 120° horizontal field of view and was installed in April 2015, about 1.5 m above the ice surface, at a location some 25 miles from the North Pole. The buoy has meanwhile drifted some distance away from the North Pole, see map at this page.
The image below shows a forecast of temperature anomalies for July 7, 2015.
The four images below illustrate how the heatwave is forecast to develop over the next few days (hat tip to Mark Richardson).
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| Rain close to the North Pole (forecast July 7, 2015) |
Rain over sea ice will create melt ponds with associated loss in albedo (reflectivity), making that light that was previously reflected back into space by the sea ice will instead be absorbed by the water, further speeding up the demise of the sea ice.
The picture below was taken July 2, 2015, byWebCam#1, mounted on a satellite-reporting buoy. The camera provides a wide-angle 120° horizontal field of view and was installed in April 2015, about 1.5 m above the ice surface, at a location some 25 miles from the North Pole. The buoy has meanwhile drifted some distance away from the North Pole, see map at this page.
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| WebCam#1 showing water on July 2, 2015 |
The presence of water can indicate that the sea ice has completely disappeared in the respective area, which could in turn be caused by sea ice melting and/or bubbling up of methane, so it's important to keep monitoring this. More likely though, the water is probably surface water on top of the ice, caused by melting and/or rain. Anyway, water reflects less sunlight back into space than sea ice, so the result will be that more sunlight is instead absorbed by the water and/or the sea ice.
With temperatures as high as the 37.1°C (98.78°F) recorded on July 2, 2016 (image further above), huge melting can be expected where there still is sea ice in the waters off the coast of Siberia, while the waters where the sea ice has already gone will warm up rapidly.
Note that the waters off the coast of Siberia are less than 50 m (164 ft) deep, so warming can quickly extend all the way down to the seabed, that can contain enormous amounts of methane in the form of free gas and hydrates.
With temperatures as high as the 37.1°C (98.78°F) recorded on July 2, 2016 (image further above), huge melting can be expected where there still is sea ice in the waters off the coast of Siberia, while the waters where the sea ice has already gone will warm up rapidly.
Note that the waters off the coast of Siberia are less than 50 m (164 ft) deep, so warming can quickly extend all the way down to the seabed, that can contain enormous amounts of methane in the form of free gas and hydrates.
JUNE 30, 2015
Dramatic Sea Ice Decline In Beaufort Sea in June 2015
The image below illustrates the dramatic fall in sea ice thickness (in m) in the Beaufort Sea over the past month. The left panel shows sea ice thickness on May 29, 2015, and the panel on the right shows sea ice thickness on June 29, 2015.
JUNE 30, 2015
Dramatic Sea Ice Decline In Beaufort Sea in June 2015
Below an interview by Judy Sole with Professor Peter Wadhams, held May 15, 2015, and entitled 'Our time is running out - The Arctic sea ice is going!'
JUNE 30, 2015
Dramatic Sea Ice Decline In Beaufort Sea in June 2015
Meanwhile, very high temperatures keep showing up within the Arctic Circle. On July 1, 2015, a temperature of 36°C (96.8°F) was reached near the Kolyma River that ends in the East Siberian Sea, as illustrated by the images below (green circle).
The image below also shows the location where this high temperature was reached (red marker), as well as the depth of the seabed and the Gakkel Ridge that runs in between the northern tip of Greenland and the Laptev Sea.
The image below also shows the location where this high temperature was reached (red marker), as well as the depth of the seabed and the Gakkel Ridge that runs in between the northern tip of Greenland and the Laptev Sea.
JUNE 25, 2015
Warming in the Arctic is accelerating. On June 25, 2015, high temperatures hit North America. Temperatures as high as 30.3°C (86.54°F) were recorded where the Mackenzie River is flowing into the Arctic Ocean.
On July 1, 2015, temperatures are forecast to be as high as 111.4°F (or 44.1°C) near Chico, north of San Francisco. Temperatures are forecast to be high over most of North America and Eastern Siberia, threatening to further warm up waters of the Arctic Ocean.
The image below shows that on June 27, 2015, temperatures of well over 40°C (104°F) were recorded in Europe and in Pakistan, where temperatures earlier this month had reached 49°C (120.2°F) in some places. The heat wave reportedly killed 1233 people in Karachi alone. This in addition to the 2500 people killed earlier in India by high temperatures.
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| June 25, 2015 - High temperatures over North America, close to the Arctic Ocean |
On July 1, 2015, temperatures are forecast to be as high as 111.4°F (or 44.1°C) near Chico, north of San Francisco. Temperatures are forecast to be high over most of North America and Eastern Siberia, threatening to further warm up waters of the Arctic Ocean.
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| Forecast for July 1, 2015 - High temperatures over North America, close to the Arctic Ocean |
The image below shows that on June 27, 2015, temperatures of well over 40°C (104°F) were recorded in Europe and in Pakistan, where temperatures earlier this month had reached 49°C (120.2°F) in some places. The heat wave reportedly killed 1233 people in Karachi alone. This in addition to the 2500 people killed earlier in India by high temperatures.
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| June 27, 2015 - High temperatures over Russia, close to the Arctic Ocean |
JUNE 25, 2015
Accelerated Warming in the Arctic
High temperatures at such locations are very worrying, for a number of reasons, including:
- They are examples of heatwaves that can increasingly extend far to the north, all the way into the Arctic Ocean, speeding up warming of the Arctic Ocean seabed and threatening to unleash huge methane eruptions.
- They set the scene for wildfires that emit not only greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, but also pollutants such as carbon monoxide (that depletes hydroxyl that could otherwise break down methane) and black carbon (that when settling on ice causes it to absorb more sunlight).
- They cause warming of the water of rivers that end up in the Arctic Ocean, thus resulting in additional sea ice decline and warming of the Arctic Ocean seabed.
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| June 24, 2015 - Smoke from wildfires in Alaska - from: wunderground.com |
JUNE 25, 2015
Accelerated Warming in the Arctic
Very warm water is also flowing from the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. As the image below shows, the water that is flowing into the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific is much warmer than it used to be, as much as 6.1°C (10.98°F) warmer.
As said above, warm water flowing from rivers into the Arctic Ocean is a major contributor to these sea surface temperature anomalies. As also illustrated by the NOAA image below, rivers carrying warm water into the Bering Strait include the Kobuk River, the Naotak River and the Yukon River that flows all the way from British Columbia, Canada, through Alaska and ends in the Bering Strait. Sea surface temperatures near the coast of Alaska were as high as 19°C (66.2°F) from June 21-24, 2015.
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| View the flow of the water on the animated version of above image at earth.nullschool.net |
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| Sea surface temperatures near the coast of Alaska as high as 19°C (66.2°F) from June 21-24, 2015 |
JUNE 11, 2015
The image below shows the Arctic from a 180° rotated angle, while also showing the high sea surface temperature anomalies that are so prominent in the North Pacific (note also that the scale of sea surface temperature anomalies differs).
One may wonder why sea surface temperature anomalies below zero are visible in the North Atlantic, given that ocean heat is rising rapidly. As the IPCC said in AR5, more than 60% of the net energy increase in the climate system is stored in the upper ocean (0–700 m) during the relatively well-sampled 40-year period from 1971 to 2010, and about 30% is stored in the ocean below 700 m.
The image below further pictures the situation as at June 9, 2015, with large blue and purple areas showing in the North Atlantic where meltwater from the Arctic has spread over time.
Indeed, the accumulation of meltwater over time has created a huge area with relatively cold water that tends to float at the surface, rather than sink, as the meltwater's salt content is very low.
In other words, the ocean underneath the meltwater at the sea surface is much warmer than the temperatures shown on above images. This can be illustrated by the situation near Svalbard. The image below shows the depth of Barents Sea, which is relatively shallow around Svalbard,
One may wonder why sea surface temperature anomalies below zero are visible in the North Atlantic, given that ocean heat is rising rapidly. As the IPCC said in AR5, more than 60% of the net energy increase in the climate system is stored in the upper ocean (0–700 m) during the relatively well-sampled 40-year period from 1971 to 2010, and about 30% is stored in the ocean below 700 m.
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| Global heat content at 0-2000 m is rising even faster than at 0-700 m |
Indeed, the accumulation of meltwater over time has created a huge area with relatively cold water that tends to float at the surface, rather than sink, as the meltwater's salt content is very low.
In other words, the ocean underneath the meltwater at the sea surface is much warmer than the temperatures shown on above images. This can be illustrated by the situation near Svalbard. The image below shows the depth of Barents Sea, which is relatively shallow around Svalbard,
As the image shows, cold meltwater with low salt content floats around Svalbard where the water is most shallow. A 'polar front' separates cold and warm water, following the borders of the area where the seafloor is high. Warm, salty water is carried by the Gulf Stream from the (much deeper) Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean. This warm water collides with cold water east of Svalbard where the seafloor rises steeply, making this warm water come to the surface.
JUNE 11, 2015
Warm water from the Atlantic also comes to the surface west of Svalbard, where warm and cold water are similarly separated by the height of the seafloor.
The image below shows that on June 8, 2015, sea surface temperatures as high as 11.4°C (52.52°F) were recorded to the south-east of Svalbard (a 9.8°C or 17.64°F anomaly), while sea surface temperatures as high as 7.4°C (45.32°F) were recorded to the west of Svalbard (a 3.5°C or 6.3°F anomaly).
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| Sea surface temperatures (top) and sea surface temperature anomalies (bottom) on June 8, 2015. |
The image below shows the situation on June 21, 2015, when sea surface temperatures as high as 12.5°C (54.5°F) were recorded to the south-east of Svalbard (a 10.2°C or 18.4°F anomaly), while sea surface temperatures as high as 8.5°C (47.3°F) were recorded to the west of Svalbard (a 3.7°C or 6.7°F anomaly) and as high as 7.3°C (45.1°F) further west of Svalbard (a 3.7°C or 6.7°F anomaly).
These spots where warm water comes to the surface give an indication of how high temperatures of the water are below the surface. As more than 90% of the extra heat caused by people's emissions continues to go into oceans, ever warmer water will be carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean, with the danger that this will warm up sediments under the Arctic Ocean seafloor, triggering huge methane eruptions with gigantic warming potential.
The above images picture the situation as at June 8 and June 21, 2015, when summer on the Northern Hemisphere had just started. In other words, temperatures will rise over the next few months. To get an idea of what can be expected, the image below shows the situation as at September 1, 2014, when sea surface temperatures near Svalbard were as high as 17.5°C (or 63.5°F), an anomaly of 11.9°C (or 21.42°F)
On the combination image below, the image on the left shows large areas (red circles) where warmer water is visible through the sea ice, indicating the presence of even warmer water at greater depth in the Arctic Ocean. The image on the right (from an earlier post) roughly shows how ocean heat can be carried by the Gulf Stream from the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of North America into the Arctic Ocean, diving under the sea ice somewhere between Greenland and Svalbard.
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| Sea surface temperatures (top) and sea surface temperature anomalies (bottom) on June 21, 2015. |
The above images picture the situation as at June 8 and June 21, 2015, when summer on the Northern Hemisphere had just started. In other words, temperatures will rise over the next few months. To get an idea of what can be expected, the image below shows the situation as at September 1, 2014, when sea surface temperatures near Svalbard were as high as 17.5°C (or 63.5°F), an anomaly of 11.9°C (or 21.42°F)
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| Sea surface temperatures (top) and sea surface temperature anomalies (bottom) on September 1, 2014. |
Then, there is also the impact of the heat wave in Russia warming up the Arctic Ocean, as indicated by the red circle on the image below.
The image below shows May Northern Hemisphere ocean temperature anomalies with respect to the period 1901-2000, based on NOAA data and with a polynomial trendline added.
JUNE 11, 2015
Gulf Stream brings ever warmer water into Arctic Ocean
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JUNE 5, 2015
High Temperatures in the Arctic
The images below illustrate extremely high temperatures forecast to hit Russia on June 6, 2015, as also discussed in the previous post.
JUNE 5, 2015
High Temperatures in the Arctic
A temperature of 29.4°C (84.92°F) is forecast for the location at the green circle for June 6, 2015. The location is close to the Arctic Ocean and to rivers ending in the Arctic Ocean, as also shown on the image below.
The location, at a latitude of 66.48°N, is approximately on the Arctic Circle, which runs 66°33′45.8″ north of the Equator. North of the Arctic Circle, the sun is above the horizon for 24 continuous hours at least once a year.
The many hours of sunshine make that, during the months June and July, insolation in the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth, as shown on above image, by Pidwirny (2006).
The location, at a latitude of 66.48°N, is approximately on the Arctic Circle, which runs 66°33′45.8″ north of the Equator. North of the Arctic Circle, the sun is above the horizon for 24 continuous hours at least once a year.
The many hours of sunshine make that, during the months June and July, insolation in the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth, as shown on above image, by Pidwirny (2006).
JUNE 5, 2015
High Temperatures in the Arctic
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Insolation, with contour labels (green) in units of W m−2
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The size of the June snow and ice cover is so vitally important as insolation in the Arctic is at its highest at the June Solstice.
The Wikipedia image on the right calculates the theoretical daily-average insolation at the top of the atmosphere, where θ is the polar angle of the Earth's orbit, and θ = 0 at the vernal equinox, and θ = 90° at the summer solstice; φ is the latitude of the Earth.
The calculation assumed conditions appropriate for 2000 A.D.: a solar constant of S0 = 1367 W m−2, obliquity of ε = 23.4398°, longitude of perihelion of ϖ = 282.895°, eccentricity e = 0.016704.
The Wikipedia image on the right calculates the theoretical daily-average insolation at the top of the atmosphere, where θ is the polar angle of the Earth's orbit, and θ = 0 at the vernal equinox, and θ = 90° at the summer solstice; φ is the latitude of the Earth.
The calculation assumed conditions appropriate for 2000 A.D.: a solar constant of S0 = 1367 W m−2, obliquity of ε = 23.4398°, longitude of perihelion of ϖ = 282.895°, eccentricity e = 0.016704.
JUNE 5, 2015
High Temperatures in the Arctic
Snow and ice cover on land can take up a large area, even larger than sea ice. In May 2015, the area of snow extent on the Northern Hemisphere was 17 million square km, while sea ice extent in May 2015 was below 13.5 million square km.
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| Northern Hemisphere snow, May 2015. Credit: Rutgers University Global Snow Lab |
The chart below shows the decline of snow cover on land on the Northern Hemisphere in Spring over the years.
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| Credit: Rutgers University Global Snow Lab |
High temperatures over the Arctic Ocean are heating up the snow cover on land and the sea ice from above. High temperatures also set the scene for wildfires that can emit huge amounts of pollutants, including dust and black carbon that, when settling on the sea ice, can cause its reflectivity to fall. Rivers furthermore feed warm water into the Arctic Ocean, further heating up the sea ice from below.
JUNE 5, 2015
High Temperatures in the Arctic
The image below shows Arctic sea ice extent at June 3, 2015, when Arctic sea ice extent was merely 11.624 million square kilometers, a record low for the time of the year since satellite started measurements in 1979.
Sea ice melting occurs due to heat from above, i.e. absorbed sunlight. Once the sea ice is gone, energy from sunlight that previously went into melting and transforming ice into water, will instead go into warming up the Arctic Ocean and the sediments under the seafloor.
In addition, sea ice is also melting due to heat from below. Much of this heat is carried by the Gulf Stream and by rivers into the Arctic Ocean. Once the sea ice is gone, all this heat will go into warming up the Arctic Ocean and the sediments under the seafloor.
The sea ice acts as a heat buffer by absorbing energy in the process of melting. In other words, as long as there is sea ice, it will absorb heat and this will prevent this heat from raising the temperature of the water in the Arctic. Once the sea ice is gone, this latent heat must go elsewhere.
As the sea ice heats up, 2.06 J/g of heat goes into every degree Celsius that the temperature of the ice rises. While the ice is melting, all energy (at 334J/g) goes into changing ice into water and the temperature remains at 0°C (273.15K, 32°F).
Once all ice has turned into water, all subsequent heat goes into heating up the water, at 4.18 J/g for every degree Celsius that the temperature of water rises.
The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. The energy required to melt a volume of ice can raise the temperature of the same volume of rock by 150º C.
Decline of Arctic sea ice means that a lot more heat will be absorbed by the Arctic Ocean.
Sea ice melting occurs due to heat from above, i.e. absorbed sunlight. Once the sea ice is gone, energy from sunlight that previously went into melting and transforming ice into water, will instead go into warming up the Arctic Ocean and the sediments under the seafloor.
In addition, sea ice is also melting due to heat from below. Much of this heat is carried by the Gulf Stream and by rivers into the Arctic Ocean. Once the sea ice is gone, all this heat will go into warming up the Arctic Ocean and the sediments under the seafloor.
The sea ice acts as a heat buffer by absorbing energy in the process of melting. In other words, as long as there is sea ice, it will absorb heat and this will prevent this heat from raising the temperature of the water in the Arctic. Once the sea ice is gone, this latent heat must go elsewhere.
Once all ice has turned into water, all subsequent heat goes into heating up the water, at 4.18 J/g for every degree Celsius that the temperature of water rises.
The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. The energy required to melt a volume of ice can raise the temperature of the same volume of rock by 150º C.
Decline of Arctic sea ice means that a lot more heat will be absorbed by the Arctic Ocean.
Thick sea ice covered with snow can reflect as much as 90% of the incoming solar radiation. After the snow begins to melt, and because shallow melt ponds have an albedo (or reflectivity) of approximately 0.2 to 0.4, the surface albedo drops to about 0.75. As melt ponds grow and deepen, the surface albedo can drop to 0.15, while the ocean reflects only 6% of the incoming solar radiation and absorbs the rest.
As Professor Peter Wadhams, University of Cambridge, once calculated, a collapse of the sea ice would go hand on hand with dramatic loss of snow and ice cover on land in the Arctic. The albedo change resulting from the snowline retreat on land is similarly large as the retreat of sea ice, so the combined impact could be well over 2 W/sq m. To put this in context, albedo changes in the Arctic alone could more than double the net radiative forcing resulting from the emissions caused by all people of the world, estimated by the IPCC to be 1.6 W/sq m in 2007 and 2.29 W/sq m in 2013.
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| Professor Peter Wadhams on albedo changes in the Arctic |
JUNE 5, 2015
High Temperatures in the Arctic
Update June 8, 2015: The website at earth.nullschool.net shows that over the past few days temperatures over 30°C (86°F) were reached at several locations over rivers ending up in the Arctic Ocean.
The animation below, by ClimateReanalyzer, shows the heat wave and the storm that hit the Arctic recently.
The animation below, by ClimateReanalyzer, shows the heat wave and the storm that hit the Arctic recently.
This animation shows the current GFS model 8-day forecast for the Arctic for six meteorological parameters (precip/cloudcover; wind, pressure, precipitable water, temperature, temperature anomaly). The forecast begins with an impressive storm twirling around the North Pole with 10-meter winds peaking around 55 km/h (~35 mi/h), which fades as the low pressure breaks down. The storm is coupled to an early season heat wave that hit Siberia this week with the development of a high amplitude ridge in the jet stream.In mid August 2012, a comparable storm churned up the sea ice and contributed to the record minimum ice extent that emerged in September. Arctic sea ice is more resilient to wind in early June when it is still relatively thick and compacted than it is in mid August towards the end of the melt season. This current storm is therefore unlikely to have the same impact as the Aug 2012 storm. But the event is worth mentioning nonetheless.
Posted by Climate Reanalyzer on Sunday, June 7, 2015
JUNE 1, 2015
Meanwhile, the heat wave in India continues. It killed more than 2,100 people, reports Reuters, adding that the heat wave also killed more than 17 million chickens in May. The number of people killed by the heat wave is now approaching the 2,541 people killed by the 1998 heat wave in India, which is listed as the record number of deaths due to extreme temperatures in India by the Emergency Events Database.
Further records listed by the database are the well over 70,000 people killed by the 2003 heat wave in Europe and 55,736 people killed by the 2010 heat wave in Russia alone.
On above temperature forecast (left image, top right), temperatures over a large area of India will be approaching the top end of the scale, i.e. 50°C or 120°F. While such temperatures are not unusual in India around this time of year, the length of the heat wave is extraordinary. The heat wave that is about to hit Russia comes with even higher temperature anomalies. Even though temperatures in Russia are unlikely to reach the peaks that hit India, the anomalies are at the top end of the scale, i.e. 20°C or 36°F.
JUNE 1, 2015
Heat Wave Forecast For Russia Early June 2015
The image below shows a forecast for June 6, 2015, with high temperatures highlighted at four locations (green circles).
Below is a forecast for the jet stream as at June 7, 2015.
The animation below runs the time of the top image (June 6, 2015, 0900 UTC) to the above image (June 7, 2015, 1200 UTC), showing forecasts of the jet stream moving over the Arctic Ocean, with its meandering shape holding warm air that extends from Russia deep into the Arctic Ocean.
Below is another view of the situation.
Clicking on this link will bring you to an animated version that also shows the wind direction, highlighting the speed (I clocked winds of up to 148 km/h, or 92 mph) of the jet stream as it moves warm air from Russia into the Arctic Ocean, sped up by cyclonic wind around Svalbard.
This is the 'open doors' feedback at work, i.e. feedback #4 on the feedbacks page, where accelerated warming in the Arctic causes the jet stream to meander more, which allows warm air to enter the Arctic more easily, in a self-reinforcing spiral that further accelerates warming in the Arctic.
The implications of temperatures that are so much higher than they used to be are huge for the Arctic. These high temperatures are heating up the sea ice from above, while rivers further feed warm water into the Arctic Ocean, heating up the sea ice from below.
Furthermore, such high temperatures set the scene for wildfires that can emit huge amounts of pollutants, among which dust and black carbon that, when settling on the sea ice, can cause large albedo falls.
The image below shows Russian rivers that end up in the Arctic Ocean, while the image also shows sea surface temperature anomalies as high as 8.2°C or 14.76°F (at the green circle, near Svalbard).
Below is a forecast for the jet stream as at June 7, 2015.
Below is another view of the situation.
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| Jet stream on June 6, 2015, 0900 UTC, i.e. the date and time that corresponds with the top image. |
This is the 'open doors' feedback at work, i.e. feedback #4 on the feedbacks page, where accelerated warming in the Arctic causes the jet stream to meander more, which allows warm air to enter the Arctic more easily, in a self-reinforcing spiral that further accelerates warming in the Arctic.
The implications of temperatures that are so much higher than they used to be are huge for the Arctic. These high temperatures are heating up the sea ice from above, while rivers further feed warm water into the Arctic Ocean, heating up the sea ice from below.
Furthermore, such high temperatures set the scene for wildfires that can emit huge amounts of pollutants, among which dust and black carbon that, when settling on the sea ice, can cause large albedo falls.
The image below shows Russian rivers that end up in the Arctic Ocean, while the image also shows sea surface temperature anomalies as high as 8.2°C or 14.76°F (at the green circle, near Svalbard).
JUNE 1, 2015
Heat Wave Forecast For Russia Early June 2015
The big danger is that the combined impact of these feedbacks will accelerate warming in the Arctic to a point where huge amounts of methane will erupt abruptly from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.
The image below shows that methane levels as high as 2,566 ppb were recorded on May 31, 2015, while high methane levels are visible over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.
Below is part of a comment on the situation by Albert Kallio:
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan page.
The image below shows that methane levels as high as 2,566 ppb were recorded on May 31, 2015, while high methane levels are visible over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.
Below is part of a comment on the situation by Albert Kallio:
As the soils warm up the bacteria in them and the insulating capacities of snow themselves tend to lead snow cover melting faster the warmer the soil it rests on becomes. (Thus the falling snow melts very rapidly on British soil surface if compared to Finland or Siberia where the underlying ground is much colder, even if occasionally the summers have similar or even higher temperatures).John Davies responds:
The large snow cover over the mid latitude land masses is a strong negative feedback for the heat intake from the sun if the season 2015 is compared with the season 2012, but the massive sea ice and polar air mass out-transportation equally strongly weakens formation of new sea ice around the North Pole (and along the edges of the Arctic Ocean) as the air above the Arctic Ocean remains warm. The pile up of thin coastal ice also increases vertical upturning of sea water and this could have detrimental effects for the frozen seabed that is storing methane clathrates. The sunlight intake of the sea areas where sea ice has already disappeared corresponds largely with the 2012 season.
The inevitable snow melting around the Arctic Ocean will also transport record volumes of warmed melt water from the south to the Arctic Ocean. The available heat in the Arctic may also be later enhanced by the high sea water temperatures that prevail along the eastern and western coasts of North America, as well as El Nino event increasing temporarily air and sea surface temperatures. This leads to more depressions around Japan and Korea from where the warm air, storms and rains migrate towards Alaska and pull cold air away from Arctic over Russia, while pushing warm air through the Baring Strait area and Alaska to the Arctic Ocean region.
Forecasting seasonal out comes is likely to be increasingly difficult to make due to increasing number of variables in the seasonal melting processes and the resulting lack of historic precedents when the oceans and Arctic has been as warm as today. Thus the interplay of the opposing forces makes increasingly chaotic outcomes, in which the overall trend will always be for less ice and snow at the end of the season. Because of these reasons - including many others not explicitly mentioned here - the overall outcome for the blue ocean, or the ice-free Arctic Ocean, will be inevitable.
Whether the loss of sea ice happens this summer, or next, or one after that, the problem isn't going to go away and more needs to be done to geoengineer to save Arctic ice and wildlife dependent on summer sea ice.
Albert Kallio is absolutely right in saying that warmer temperatures are leading to a blue ocean event though the problem remains in which year this will happen. Additionally Methane is being released from the bottom of the ocean leading to increased Methane concentrations and all that means for a destabilising global climate. Frustratingly, the higher temperatures and increasing Methane concentrations are not yet quite sufficient for us to persuade the scientific community and the public that Armageddon is on the way. Hence it is not yet possible to be in a position to persuade the world community of the urgent need for Geo-engineering to save the Arctic and Global climate. However we may reach this situation in the near future and that will be the only time when it might be possible to save the global climate and prevent Armageddon.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan page.
MAY 31, 2015
Arctic Methane Skyrocketing
The map below shows observatories in the Arctic.
'Arctic methane skyrocketing' is the title of a video by Paul Beckwith discussing recent rises in methane levels in the Arctic.
Paul's description: "I discuss how ground level flask measurements of methane have been spiking upwards over the last few years. I analyze the implications to the breakdown of climate stability, causing jet stream fracturing and weather regime change. I believe that this behaviour will rapidly worsen as Arctic temperature amplification continues, leading our planet to a much warmer and unrecognizable climate over the next 5 to 10 years."
Below are some NOAA images showing methane levels (surface flasks) recorded at Arctic observatories.
Below is an image showing hourly average in situ measurements at Barrow, Alaska, including one very high reading, from an earlier post.
'Arctic methane skyrocketing' is the title of a video by Paul Beckwith discussing recent rises in methane levels in the Arctic.
Paul's description: "I discuss how ground level flask measurements of methane have been spiking upwards over the last few years. I analyze the implications to the breakdown of climate stability, causing jet stream fracturing and weather regime change. I believe that this behaviour will rapidly worsen as Arctic temperature amplification continues, leading our planet to a much warmer and unrecognizable climate over the next 5 to 10 years."
Below are some NOAA images showing methane levels (surface flasks) recorded at Arctic observatories.
Below is an image showing hourly average in situ measurements at Barrow, Alaska, including one very high reading, from an earlier post.
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