Arctic News

Sunday, January 4, 2026

Sea ice loss increases methane danger

Antarctic sea ice

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration by the University of Bremen (left) and National Snow and Ice Data Center (right) on January 7, 2026.

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness on January 7, 2026.

Massive loss of albedo amplifies the decline of Antarctic sea ice and the decline of the snow and ice cover over Antarctica, resulting in elevation of the global temperature that can be expected to persist at least through September 2026, when Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent.

Additional elevation of the global temperature can be expected due to an emerging El Niño.

The next El Niño

[ from earlier post ]

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image shows very high temperature anomalies forecast around Antarctica and over the Arctic Ocean for September 2026, at a time when Arctic sea ice volume is expected to be very low. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño can in itself make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026.

The image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows the ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through November 2026 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

[ from earlier post ]

Arctic sea ice

Sea ice is low at both poles. This results in loss of global albedo, which elevates temperatures. El Niño can be expected to further elevate temperatures in the course of 2026.

Adding to the problems, Arctic sea ice has become very thin. Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, it has been at a record daily low for well over a year. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through January 7, 2026.

Note that Arctic sea ice volume for 2026 (pointed at by the arrow) is visible in black and is partly faded behind the legend.

There is a huge danger that seafloor methane and methane from thawing terrestrial permafrost will add strongly and abruptly to the temperature rise, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the screenshot below.

[ screenshot from earlier post ]

Greenhouse gas concentrations

Carbon dioxide concentrations typically reach an annual maximum in May. The image below shows carbon dioxide concentrations (surface flasks) as high as 437 ppm recorded half 2025 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Currently, concentrations of greenhouse gases at Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, are very high and rising. The image below is adapted from an image issued by NOAA January 8, 2026, and shows recent monthly carbon dioxide concentrations as high as 442 ppm.

The image below shows daily measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations from 2020.

The above image and the images below are adapted from images issued by NOAA January 6, 2026.

These images show concentrations of greenhouse gases recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.

The image below shows hourly average methane measurements from 2020.

The image below shows monthly average methane measurements from 2001.

The image below shows monthly average nitrous oxide measurements from 2016.

Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Today
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• The threat of seafloor methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-threat-of-seafloor-methane-eruptions.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, Data Visualisation, flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• Focus on Antarctica
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/09/focus-on-antarctica.html

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• University of Bremen - sea ice concentration and thickness
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Monday, December 29, 2025

Huge temperature rise in 2026?

[ image from 1991 poster ]

The image on the right was included in a poster featuring at the AGU Fall Meeting in 1991. The image warned about an escalating temperature rise in the Arctic, pointing at a 10°C rise in the Arctic by 2036. The poster warns that this rise threatens to trigger seafloor methane releases resulting in runaway global warming.

Over time, further contributors to the temperature rise have been highlighted with the warning that they could jointly trigger a total potential global temperature rise of 10°C as early as 2026.

A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold and it could do so as early as next year (2026), as illustrated by the image on the right. Altogether, the temperature rise from pre-industrial could be more than 18.44°C by the end of 2026.

[ see the Extinction page ]

The barchart on the right conceptually dates back to 2016, when a strong El Niño came with a strong temperature rise. When expressed by means of a polynomial trend that was extended by a decade, the trend pointed at a 10°C rise by 2026.

The barchart has basically remained the same over the past ten years, be it that the historic temperature rise from pre-industrial has turned out to be larger (pink) and that the cloud feedback could add a further 8°C to the rise (grey). Also, for clarity, aerosols have been split up into on the one hand sulfates (green) and on the other hand carbon monoxide, black & brown carbon and non-methane volatile organic carbon (brown).

Importantly, posts have over time pointed out that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.

With the year 2026 approaching fast, it is time to have another look at how fast and by how much temperatures could rise. The danger of a strong El Niño emerging in 2026 is highlighted below and this could come at a time when emissions are high, Earth's albedo is low and both land and ocean sinks are losing their capacity to take up carbon dioxide and heat.

[ from earlier post ]

The image below shows how, over the course of the year, temperature anomalies in 2023, 2024 and 2025 each have at times reached the highest daily records, even though 2025 wasn't an El Niño year. The image shows temperature anomalies from 1940 through to December 29, 2025, compared to 1991-2020, which isn't pre-industrial.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below, from an earlier post, shows NASA Land Only monthly temperature anomalies (black squares) with respect to 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) through November 2025 and shows the 1.5°C threshold crossed for all months since 2022. The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold was crossed in 2022 and that 3°C may get crossed in 2028 if this trend continues (dashed extension). The picture could look even worse when a genuinely pre-industrial base was used and a polynomial trend was applied and extended.

[ Potential Land-only rise, from earlier post ]

As said, the image at the top shows very high temperatures in 2025, even though 2025 wasn't an El Niño year. In other words, current temperatures are suppressed. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño can in itself make a difference of more than 0.5°C. This is illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post, that shows a temperature rise of more than 0.5°C from November 2022 to March 2023, when the last El Niño had not yet even started.

[ Temperature rise due to El Niño from earlier post ]

How deep into La Niña conditions are we at the moment? Sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W) are indicative for El Niño/La Niña conditions. The image below shows the location of that region (square on the globe, inset) and graphs with the sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region for each of the days of the years from 1981 through December 27, 2025.

The image below shows a graph with temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region from 1950 through November 2025, when the anomaly was -0.68°C.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image on the right shows a NOAA update of Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts.

NOAA considers a La Niña event to occur when a one-month negative sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5° C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W) and is forecasted to persist for three consecutive months, while an atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña must also be observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

[ from an earlier post ]

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026.

The graph below, adapted from tropicaltidbits, uses CDAS (Climate Data Assimilation System) data showing an anomaly of -1.272°C on Dec 28, 2025. The graph gives another idea as to how deep we have descended into La Niña conditions.

The CDAS analysis below shows very low sea surface temperature anomalies (in blue) in the Niño3.4 region in the Central Pacific on December 28, 2025.

[ from earlier post ]

How large could the temperatures rise be?

Sea ice is low at both poles. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice on December 31, 2025. Massive loss of albedo amplifies the decline of Antarctic sea ice and the decline of the snow and ice cover over Antarctica, resulting in elevated global temperatures that could persist through September 2026, when Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent.

As discussed above, moving from the depth of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño in itself could make a difference in the global temperature of more than 0.5°C. Add up feedbacks and the combined impact could trigger a huge temperature rise, since the rise is already accelerating, due to the self-amplifying nature of feedbacks such as albedo loss and more water vapor in the atmosphere, and due to further feedbacks that come with the temperature rise itself such as ocean stratification.

[ image from earlier post ]

[ from earlier post ]

Oceans are still absorbing an estimated 91% of the excess heat energy trapped in the Earth's climate system due to human-caused global warming. If just a small part of that heat instead remains in the atmosphere, this could constitute a huge rise in air temperature. Heat already stored in the deeper layers of the ocean could also rise up and commit Earth to further additional surface warming in the future.

The image on the right illustrates how the temperature rise can cause oceans to take up less heat, resulting in more heat remaining in the atmosphere.

[ from earlier post ]

The above image shows very high temperature anomalies forecast around Antarctica and over the Arctic Ocean for September 2026, at a time when Arctic sea ice volume is expected to be very low. Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, it has been at a record daily low for well over a year. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through December 30, 2025.

[ screenshot from earlier post ]

The methane danger is further illustrated by the image below that shows hourly average in situ methane measurements well above 2400 ppb (parts per billion). The image is adapted from an image issued by NOAA December 31, 2025. The image shows methane recorded over the past few years at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.

Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• AGU poster

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/agu-poster.html

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Today
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - ENSO sea surface temperatures
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/sst

• ECMWF
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes

Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Wild Weather Swings

The above image, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer, shows temperature anomalies of more than 40°F (22.22°C) higher than 1979-2000 forecast for December 25, 2025 (21:00 UTC) over parts of the United States, discussed here on facebook.

Earlier forecasts warned about even higher anomalies over the Arctic, as illustrated by the image below.

As temperatures rise, extreme weather events are striking with increasingly stronger ferocity, heightened intensity, longer duration, greater frequency and wider ubiquity.

The above image shows temperature anomalies of more than 28°C above 1979-2000 forecast over the Arctic Ocean for December 24, 2025 06z.

The image on the right shows that extremely high daily average temperature anomalies hit parts of the Arctic Ocean and Greenland on December 22, 2025, while that same day extremely low daily temperature anomalies hit parts of Canada, Alaska and Siberia.

The image on the right shows a temperature at the North Pole of -4.3°C or 24.3°F on December 14, 2025 17:00 UTC (also discussed in this post on facebook).

Distortion of the Jet Stream can cause extreme weather events and wild weather swings. The image below shows how the Jet Stream is forecast to form an 'Omega' pattern at 250 hPa over Greenland on December 21, 2025 18:00 UTC, with temperatures on the east coast of Greenland forecast to be as high as 7.1°C or 44.7°F.

Strong wind can abruptly push huge amounts of ocean heat from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean.

An influx of warm, salty water into the Arctic Ocean can penetrate sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that contain vast amounts of methane in the form of methane hydrates and free gas underneath such hydrates. Greater salinity and higher temperatures can cause such hydrates to destabilize, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane and in rapid global warming.

Such a rapid warming scenario could unfold if triggered by a stronger-than-expected El Niño event, as follows:

a stronger-than-expected El Niño would contribute to
early demise of the Arctic sea ice, i.e. latent heat tipping point +
associated loss of sea ice albedo,
destabilization of seafloor methane hydrates, causing eruption of vast amounts of methane that further speed up Arctic warming and cause
terrestrial permafrost to melt as well, resulting in even more emissions,
while the Jet Stream gets even more deformed, resulting in more extreme weather events
causing forest fires, at first in Siberia and Canada and
eventually also in the peat fields and tropical rain forests of the Amazon, in Africa and South-east Asia, resulting in
rapid melting on the Himalayas, temporarily causing huge flooding,
followed by drought, famine, heat waves and mass starvation, and
collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

[ image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

The next El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image on the right shows a NOAA update of Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts. NOAA considers La Niña conditions to occur when a one-month negative sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5° C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W). Also, there must be an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met, and an atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

[ from an earlier post ]

The graph gives another idea as to how deep we have descended into La Niña conditions.

The image below, from an earlier post and adapted from ECMWF, shows the ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through November 2026 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

Temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W) are indicative for ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) conditions. The image below shows anomalies in that region on December 14, 2025, of 0.9° C below 1991-2020, a move deeper into La Niña conditions, which is suppressing temperatures at the moment and that may cause the next El Niño for many to come as a shock.

The CDAS analysis below shows very low sea surface temperature anomalies (in blue) in the Niño3.4 area in the Central Pacific on December 27, 2025.

Moving from the depth of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño in itself can make a difference in the global temperature of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post. This comes on top of feedbacks such as albedo loss and increased water vapor in the atmosphere.

Sea ice

As the image below shows, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.998 million km² on March 1, 2025 and it was 7.569 million km² on December 25, 2025. What Antarctic extent will be on March 1, 2026, is discussed here on facebook.

The image below shows global sea ice concentration and snow cover on December 26, 2025.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Both sea ice extent and concentration are currently low at both poles, contributing to albedo loss, i.e. less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead getting absorbed by the surface. This leads to an increase in global temperatures, which in turn causes further decline of the snow and ice cover, as well as loss of lower clouds, in a self-amplifying feedback loop.

This spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice. The Antarctic sea ice is expected to reach its minimum in February 2026. The image on the right, adapted from a University of Bremen image, shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on December 26, 2025, while illustrating that albedo decline can occur both due to shrinking, and due to melt pools, cracks, thinning and particles (black carbon, dust, algae, etc.), as also discussed here on facebook.

The next image on the right is adapted from a NSIDC image and also shows the Antarctic sea ice concentration, on December 25, 2025. Additionally, the image shows the median Antarctic sea ice edge 1981-2010 highlighted in orange.

The danger is that a Double Blue Ocean Event will occur in 2026, i.e. sea ice approaching a low of one million km² both for Antarctic sea ice and Arctic sea ice.

The image below, adapted from a Uni of Bremen image, shows Antarctic sea ice thickness on December 26, 2025.

While the Antarctic methane danger has been described before, such as in this April 2013 post, the main focus of the Arctic-news blog has long been on the Arctic, in particular on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). However, recent research highlights the dire situation in Antarctica, justifying an additional wider focus on global developments, as discussed on facebook.

The above image, from Ted Scambos et al. (2017), also features in an earlier post and illustrates the dangerous situation in Antarctica. The danger of progressively stronger intrusions of warm and salty water underneath Antarctic glaciers is also discussed in this recent study. The danger is that this can cause glacier collapse and destabilization of methane hydrates, in turn causing eruption of huge amounts of methane held in and underneath such hydrates, as also discussed here on facebook.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The danger of an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event occurring in February 2026 is illustrated by the image on the right, which shows Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies through December 12, 2025.

An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event in February 2026 in turn would threaten to trigger an Arctic Blue Ocean Event later in 2026.

Ominously, Arctic sea ice extent was 11.19 million km² on December 22, 2025, a record low for the time of year. What makes this record daily low even more significant is that it was reached without El Niño conditions elevating temperatures.

The image below, adapted from NSIDC, shows Arctic sea ice extent through December 23, 2025.

Arctic sea ice volume is also at a record low for the time of year, it has been at a record daily low for well over a year. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through December 23, 2025.

Temperature

Loss of Antarctic sea ice elevates global temperatures, due to albedo loss, which could persist through September 2026, when Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent. This is illustrated by the image below that shows a forecast for September 2026 of very high temperature anomalies around Antarctica and over the Arctic Ocean.

Methane

The methane danger is illustrated by the image below that shows hourly average in situ methane measurements well above 2400 ppb (parts per billion). The image is adapted from an image issued by NOAA December 24, 2025. The image shows methane recorded over the past few years at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.

The methane danger is discussed in many earlier posts such as this one. Seafloor methane and methane from thawing terrestrial permafrost can add significantly and abruptly to the temperature rise.

The danger of methane hydrates destabilization is further illustrated by the screenshot below.

[ screenshot from earlier post ]