Arctic News: Greenhouse gas rising

Saturday, January 10, 2026

Greenhouse gas rising

Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska Greenhouse gas concentrations recorded at Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, are very high and rising. Below is a compilation of four images adapted from images issued by NOAA on January 22, 2026. The images show carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) concentrations recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.

Mauna Loa, Hawaii

Below is a compilation of four images adapted from images issued by NOAA on January 22, 2026. The images show carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) concentrations recorded at the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO), a NOAA station at Hawaii, at 19.54° N latitude.

Earth Energy Imbalance

Rising greenhouse gas concentrations alone do not sufficiently convey how dangerous the situation is. As illustrated by the image below, the Earth Energy Imbalance has risen strongly over the years. The image, by Eliot Jacobson, shows the net difference between incoming solar energy and heat radiated out by the planet through October 2025.

The rise in the Earth Energy Imbalance is caused by - among other things - a rise in the heat trapped by high (and rising) greenhouse gas concentrations and a decline in the Earth albedo (reflectivity).

Earth Albedo

The image below, by Eliot Jacobson, shows the 36-month running average for the Earth's albedo through November 2025, when albedo was 28.682%, a fall of 0.65% from 2003. According to a 2005 NASA article, a 1% fall in Earth’s albedo would have a climate effect of 1.7 W m⁻², roughly equal to the climate effect of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at the time (1.66 W m⁻²).

Decline in the Earth albedo is caused by - among other things - decline of sea ice.

Sea ice decline

The combination image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness and concentration by the University of Bremen (left and center) and concentration by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (right) on January 26, 2026. The NSIDC image also shows the median Antarctic sea ice edge 1981-2010 highlighted in orange.

Decline of Antarctic sea ice and of the snow and ice cover over Antarctica contributes to elevation of the global temperature that can be expected to persist at least through September 2026, when Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent and area.

Arctic sea ice decline is illustrated by the images below. Arctic sea ice extent was 1.42 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on January 24, 2026, the lowest area on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.12σ.

Arctic sea ice area was 0.99 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on January 23, 2026, the lowest area on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.45σ.

The above images show anomalies through January 23, 2026. The year 2026 is highlighted in black. Furthermore, the year 2025 is highlighted in purple and the year 2012 is highlighted in blue; Arctic sea ice reached a record low in September 2012.

Arctic sea ice has also become very thin. Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, it has been at a record daily low for well over a year. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through January 27, 2026.

This means that less of the heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean can get consumed in the process of melting the sea ice and more of the heat will instead elevate the temperature of the water of the Arctic ocean, threatening to destabilize sediments that contain methane and to cause eruption of huge amounts of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

Further feedbacks

[ from earlier post ]

Snow and ice cover decline is one of many feedbacks of the temperature rise. Further feedbacks include a rise in water vapor in the atmosphere, a decline in the reflectivity of lower clouds and a decline of the capacity of oceans and land to take up carbon dioxide and heat.

The image on the right illustrates how the temperature rise can cause oceans to take up less heat, resulting in more heat remaining in the atmosphere.

In addition to these feedbacks, more fuel getting burned and reductions in the aerosol masking effect can further elevate temperatures dramatically in 2026.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

El Niño

Furthermore, El Niño may emerge in the course of 2026. This alone can dramatically elevate temperatures.

NOAA advises that La Niña is present at the moment and that there is a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026, as illustrated by the image on the right. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least Northern Hemisphere late spring 2026.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA and from an earlier post, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026.

The image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows the ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through November 2026 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

[ from earlier post ]

Temperatures

The image below shows the 2025 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980 (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis v1). The highest anomalies show up at the poles, reflecting polar amplification of the temperature rise, caused by decline of the snow and ice cover and by further feedbacks.

The image below with NASA Land-Only annual anomalies with respect to 1880-1912 shows a rise of about 0.6°C from 2022 to 2026, much of which can be attributed to El Niño. The image also shows that 1.5°C was crossed for all years from 2015 through 2025 (black squares).

[ from earlier post ]

In the above image, a Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that 2°C was crossed on land after 2022 (in 2023, 2024 and 2025) and that 3°C may get crossed on land soon, as early as in 2031 if this trend continues (dashed extension). Note that this 1880-1912 base is not pre-industrial. Temperature anomalies can be even higher when a genuinely pre-industrial base is used.

The above image is similar, it uses an 1880-1920 base and shows that the 1.5°C threshold was crossed for temperatures on land since 2015, when politicians pledged at the Paris Agreement to take efforts to prevent a global 1.5°C rise from occurring. Note that this 1880-1920 base is also not a pre-industrial base. Temperature anomalies can be even higher when a genuinely pre-industrial base is used.

The image has a polynomial trend added that points at 3°C getting crossed on land in early 2027. Crossing 3°C on land is important, since most people live on land and there are indications that such a rise will cause many species (including humans) to go extinct.

Failure to warn, failure to act

The science community, the IPCC, the UN, politicians and national governments have all failed to convey the seriousness of the threat of rising temperatures. That conclusion seems obvious, yet they keep refusing to call for, let alone to take appropriate action. There are some notable exceptions, but the sad conclusion is that in general they have failed and - even worse - they refuse to admit their failure.

UN secretary-general António Guterres has pointed at the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, referring to an international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

Yet, the very approach of leaving it up to the UN to "identify and resolve" problems by negotiating international consensus on carbon budgets, net-zero targets and offsets is a delusion. It's a diversion fabricated and advocated by polluters to delay climate action and to enable those very polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. Instead, Arctic-news has for many years identified the problems and has pointed out how to improve the situation.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.