Friday, October 26, 2012

Hurricane Sandy moving inland

Hurricane Sandy is moving inland and its impact is forecast to be felt as far away as in Toronto and Ottawa.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone
Hurricane SANDY Advisory #019       11:00 PM EDT Fri October 26, 2012
from:  National Hurricane Center (check link for updates!)

Paul Beckwith,
B.Eng, M.Sc. (Physics),
Ph.D. student (Climatology)
and Part-time Professor,
University of Ottawa
This prompted Paul Beckwith to make the following comments:

All storms veer to the right in the northern hemisphere due to the spinning of the earth (1 revolution per day). Except when there is a tilted high pressure region northward and it has to go left and there is a massive low pressure region left that sucks it there as well. 

Why the high pressure ridge and massive low pressure? Because the jet stream is wavier and slower, a situation that is happening more and more often, because of massive sea ice decline this summer. Which is due to Arctic amplification feedbacks. Which in turn is due to rising greenhouse gases. Which is due to humans.

The situation is further illustrated by the image below, from ClimateCentral.

An atmospheric "blocking pattern" will push Sandy north, then northwestward, into the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast. Click to enlarge the image.     Credit: Remik Ziemlinski, Climate Central.
In an earlier post, Paul Beckwith described that a very rare cyclone churned up the entire Arctic region for over a week in early August 2012, destroying 20% of the ice area by breaking it into tiny chunks, melting it, or spitting it into the Atlantic. Cold fresh surface water from melted sea ice mixed with warm salty water from a 500 metre depth! Totally unexpected. A few more cyclones with similar intensity could have eliminated the entire remaining ice cover. Thankfully that didn't happen. What did happen was Hurricane Leslie tracked northward and passed over Iceland as a large storm. It barely missed the Arctic this time. Had the storm tracked 500 to 600 kilometres westward, Leslie would have churned up the west coast of Greenland and penetrated directly into the Arctic Ocean basin.

We dodged a bullet, at least this year. This luck will surely run out. What can we do about this? How about getting our politicians to listen to climatologists, for starters.

Below, rainfall forecast from the Hydrometereological Prediction Center of the National Weather Service - check the link for updates! 


- Vanishing Arctic sea ice is rapidly changing global

- Storm enters Arctic region

- Huge cyclone batters Arctic sea ice


  1. It's now evening of Monday the 29th and Sandy is coming ashore exactly on predicted track of this article of Friday the 26th.. There is no stopping runaway heat without a full effort to do so world.
    No second to waste, no not anything more timely..
    The value of money -what is it with Earth up 25C..
    We need to keep temp below 2C rise and make it so.
    All the kings horses and all the kings men couldn't put Earth back together again. I'm saying.. And I think I speak for others too..

  2. In far North a pattern emerges each Summer now across the Arctic Ocean where a high pressure sets up over North of Canada and on Greenland while on other side of Sea lower pressure happens. Usually, the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and adjacent lands of Russian Siberia..
    That is known as the Arctic Dipole and has swung into heavy effect since 2007..
    That is point where Methane, CH4 measurement started rapid divergence upward in local Arctic sky concentrations..
    Essentially the highs over Canada and Greenland are like a fixed set of boulders in a stream of air..
    That is all explained in detail in graphs and in words at Arctic News here..
    Essentially what's happening is a previously more normal current of air that used to circle Arctic has ceased to be strong. This has set off a cascade of events and secondary manifestations of alteration of climate.
    There is energy from latent heat of re freezing of Arctic Sea and increased water vapor and heat transmission from lower latitudes..
    In Summer because of position of reforming block in Arctic a pattern of jet stream wind shift occurs more and more strongly swinging wide Southward in Crop belt bringing change to drought and high temps forward.
    While in late Summer, Autumn the energy of tropical storm and Hurricane can link with a funneling of passage to Arctic circulation. Joining forces..
    Time will tell but it is certain Earth heat up is in motion and not set to stop without human intervention.. It would be a good idea for cable channel and political parties of US not to block progress of people wanting to alter earth's progression of state to extinction. It would be wise to be wise in this..
    There is something that at present -which came ashore with Sandy and it had a message to read if one is paying attention.. Kind of like in the curse of the interesting times to live of duty to protect -We who live today have the great honor if we want to speak up.. To stand for what's right and for Life.

  3. Paul, Here is a link to finding describing the filling of water ice crystal form with guest molecules in hydrate formation indicating that cell wall of crystal behaves like a membrane allowing passage of certain molecules with specific properties to enter to fill.. I found that by searching News of Clathrate decay in dead of night last night while thinking of looking at News from Syria instead because I was looking for something besides a few characters on a tweet to sent to Doha meeting on formation of united front to free Syria now and to set stage for advance of unity on stopped or blocked advancement of peace in the world..
    The Arctic is loaded for bear with Methane on shallow continental shelves there..
    The reference to closing of separation o North and South America and ocean current shift since when Earth last time was free of N sea ice -potential for rapid heat increase is loaded for bear now. -This info should be at Syria meeting to explain why there is need for peace and cooperation like never before.. It would give the reason for people to unite in purpose for Peace..

    1. Fascinating study, Dale, more such research is needed. The shift to clean and renewable resources is not only imperative in order to combat global warming, it is also better for our health and it allows production to take place more locally, thus creating more local employment and investment opportunities, with less need for the military to fight over possession and supply lines of resources from abroad. Like you, I have the hope that the threat of runaway warming due to massive methane releases from hydrates in the Arctic seabed will unite the world into comprehensive action, including more R&D into how to improve things.

    2. Sam, the meeting in Doha had to be a go. Politic and war fronts are fractious and that Middle E is tied in knots like forever so long the people living there likely don't know what simple trust and borders are.
      But there is progress for peace and those participating weren't allowed to not come together and form a unified group.. Common goal played part.
      Borders are artificial while Earth is Real and only home; Our duty to protect. I think it played a part in background of Doha agreement.
      Heat advance as Paul explains so well is in non linear advance and it is my thinking we need to get a jump on it to get in front of it to regain margins for error, otherwise not good.
      The only way to win this war to save life is a jump in world thinking and to frame a system which links value of Earth alive to money value.

    3. Sam, COP18 Climate Summit starts tomorrow in Doha, Dubai but world eyes are elsewhere to large degree. -Here is comment I made just yesterday in Malaysia about what's happening at large in the world today, Climatically speaking in a politically correct way here:
      "Earth is losing reflectivity and ability to shed heat to space. -As temperature rises the sea ice in Arctic is going away fast, uncovering really vast amounts of CH4, methane which is starting to quickly release into the sky where it has huge capacity to trap heat in because it is a very strong greenhouse gas.
      This may seem abstract and far from Sarawak but it affects survival of Earth as our home, one and all of us alive today on Earth and our kids.
      Earth without human intervention, concerted effort to undo past harm from man’s destruction of Nature’s ecosystems will die in a horrible way.
      It is our duty as people to protect our home and God’s good Earth and to confront the international corruption of nations driven by corporations.
      It’s more complex than that but we as little guys either get it together and get good gov that stands for what’s right and future generations or else.
      It’s going to take the full employment of all people and the accurate employment of the full force of capacity of industry world wide to keep like life.

      There is game on 2C if Earth can survive and a great decision is getting made. Keeping the forests of Sarawak and other places standing is important. It is essential, as essential as keeping life in the Sea. Forces of thermodynamics won’t fool around and speed of extinction is extreme.
      The people of the world need to come up to speed on what’s happening real fast and realize unless something of a miracle turn around Earth dies………
      Not figuratively but Radically Real.. This is a critical situation, an emergency situation which will decide the future of life on Earth; is it to be or not.
      The power of money needs to be curtailed in a way that doesn’t bring down the potential of industry and science but rather links value of Earth alive to how money is used. Act of God is a writ of law, contract law and even able to affect civil and criminal law, international law and standing of contracts already in play if it is expanded and specifically employed in an effort to keep Earth alive.. Such emergency fully warrants Act of God.
      What has now threatened Earth came upon us faster than near anyone expected and threatens all life on Earth with death;; please unite on this.."
      From the other comments it is obvious awareness of what's going on with Earth and the critical situation with accelerating global heat is not on their radar.
      What can be done to remedy the situation?
      Clear back in 71 or 72 I was informed of CO2 rise and implications..
      At the time i was floundering having changed major at University from physics to geology and the Vietnam war was on and coming to close..
      The use of computers was not even above punch cards and calculators instead of using slide rules wasn't long past. There were protests going on about the war and stuff and some idiot I remember had just discovered fertilizer bombs could send engine block to rooftops or something.. Times were different and internet wasn't there for people to come up to speed and place comments in foreign lands on climate..

      How can we leverage what we now have to keep the Earth alive??

    4. Correction: COP18 is in Doha, Qatar. Prognosis: Drilled Gas v Hydrates.
      Methane Hydrate is temp and pressure sensitive and in temperature rise.
      Drilled Gas can create consumer lifestyle and monetary wealth for some.
      Outcome falls to threat of speed of release stopping reluctance to Act.
      To Act in a way that gets full force of will to live in front of storm.
      And in my estimation Act of God alteration to value of money is needed.
      It is fully warranted given speed, severity of situation that's sprung.
      Unless Peace; unless we can rescue a plan framed in a way that can win.
      Unless there is room to make errors; what, how and when can experiment 2C win.