Friday, August 2, 2013

Ecological Statement on the Future of Earth

The following statement was initiated by John B. Davies, in the hope that it will also be signed by many climatologists, ecologists and anyone who is similarly concerned about climate catastrophe, and given wide media coverage. The statement reflects the views of signatories personally, rather than the views of organizations they may be associated with, hence the links to personal pages such as at facebook and Google+. Nonetheless, businesses, groups and organizations are equally invited to join this call for action. Add your name and copy this statement widely! 


Life on earth is facing a profound crisis.

Human industrial society has impacted life on earth in multitudes of ways especially through the vastly increased greenhouse gas concentration of the atmosphere. Trade and rapid transport around the earth are introducing invasive species everywhere. New bacteria and micro biological life are being moved to areas in which they did not previously live causing new diseases for animals and plants. Forests are being lost globally adding to the carbon concentration of the air and causing many species to go extinct.

Farming using nitrogenous fertilisers is causing a loss of nutrients whilst soil itself is being lost on a large scale as a result of farming

No later than 2050, and probably much sooner, global temperatures will have risen significantly. Farming will be nearly impossible in an unstable global climate and ecosystem. There will be large scale loss of species as a result of a collapsing global ecosystem.

There will probably have been a collapse of the global economy before 2050, which may come as almost a sudden event or could occur over a decade or two. This will probably lead into a political and societal collapse with far fewer people surviving on the planet in very inhospitable circumstances.

Human society is not reacting to the situation effectively because most nations and industries, but not all, make strenuous efforts to protect the living planet but because it is so costly our society does far from all that is absolutely necessary and then just hopes for the best.

The situation is far from hopeless if we react now. However, if humanity does not react to this crisis almost immediately, then global ecological collapse and the collapse of human civilisation before 2050 is almost inevitable. Most of the worst damage can still be avoided. However once the situation starts to deteriorate rapidly there will be no way in which it can be slowed or reversed, we will be doomed.

The first priority is for all governments and most people to acknowledge the grave crisis the earth is facing almost immediately because only then can humanity react effectively.

Secondly there needs to be a statement in general terms of what must be done. The two most important actions contained within the statement are a deep reduction in greenhouse gas emissions very quickly which will affect the wealthy nations more than others and very wealthy people more than poorer people. This may mean a global economic contraction. Secondly a group of leading scientists needs to be set up under the authority of the United Nations to set the priorities for urgent action in all other areas. These actions need to be implemented very quickly and with great determination so that they are effectively applied. Many areas, especially the arctic, are in a critical situation.

The trends which are leading life on this planet to disaster need to be shown to be turning around very quickly. This is achievable but unless this is done very quickly modern civilisation will collapse in the near future.

Sign the petition at AVAAZ, at:

John B Davies
Douglas Spence


  1. In indigenous arctic societies, the old knew when it was time for them to die. They contributed to the survival of the society by wandering out on the ice and freezing to death. Unfortunately, this kind of survival ethic which protects the group from starvation and the environment from depredation is no longer a viable solution. A key factor in human survival will be recognition that world population must decline NOW!

    1. I have studied possible links between global warming and population growth for many years, e.g. see this post dating back more than five years. My conclusion remains that global warming is primarily caused by our choice of technologies and that the necessary shifts to preferable technologies are best achieved through local feebates, as part of an effective and comprehensive Climate Plan.

  2. Physically the challenges piling up forcing Earth into Extinction have momentum now that will be hard if not impossible to stop. So the next best thing is to sideswipe the momentum out of the direct line of temp rise by creating open system of human enterprise, Large on world scale designed to cause full employ and prosperity rise at same time as to augment and restore those fragments of former open systems of Nature like Amazon basin and Coral reefs and stuff so the Earth's systems of man and beast so to speak work together to direct line confront the close system entropy rise in progress now. It means courage now. And Peace and to speak clearly, one and all and for the best plan to go forward with constant update, snap without warning.
    It is a worldwide effort that needs to be made and the US where I am is real problem; I'm totally at a loss as to how close right now evil is in intelligence services and at high office of land. Or if anonymous friends can triumph in this matter or if infiltration and multiple stands will pull it down. Essentially I'm hoping for an Act of God realization on a planetary level