Monday, September 3, 2012

PIOMAS data confirm exponential trend

The Applied Physics Laboratory/Polar Science Center at the University of Washington has issued an extra release of Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) data.

Sea ice volume on August 25th, 2012, was 3500 km3, or about 500 km3 less than the prior minimum, reached on September 10th, 2011.

The image below shows that recent data for 2012 appear to match almost perfectly the expected values based on exponential trends added by Wipneus.
The image below, again based on PIOMAS data, shows trends added by Wipneus for each month of the year. The black line shows the average for the month September, pointing at zero a bit into the year 2015, while the average for August and October (the overlapping red and dark blue lines, appearing as a single purple line) point at zero before the start of the year 2016.
In conclusion, it looks like there will be no sea ice from August 2015 through to October 2015, while a further three months look set to reach zero in 2017, 2018 and 2019 (respectively July, November and June). Before the start of the year 2020, in other words, there will be zero sea ice for the six months from June through to November.

And, events may unfold even more rapidly, as discussed earlier at Getting the picture.

The image below, from the Naval Research Laboratory, shows the dramatic decline of sea ice thickness over the last 30 days.

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