What's wrong with the weather?

Above map shows temperatures in NewFoundland and Labrador close to 30°C (86°F), compared to temperatures in Albuquerque, New Mexico of only 20°C (68°F), while temperatures seem to be even lower in Mexico City. What's happening with the weather?

Jet Streams are changing

World climate zones used to be kept well apart by jet streams. On the northern hemisphere, the polar jet stream was working hard to separate the Tundra and Boreal climate zones' colder air in the north from the Temperate climate and the Subtropical climate zones' warmer air in the south.

As the Arctic is warming even faster than the Equator, the falling temperature difference between the two reduces the speed at which warm air is moving from the Equator to the North Pole. This in turn slows the speed at which the jet streams are circumnavigating the globe on the Northern hemisphere and it is deforming the jet streams in other ways as well.

[ NOAA image ]

As above image shows, the polar jet stream is typically located at about 60°N and the subtropical jet stream at about 30°N. The polar jet stream's altitude typically is near the 250 hPa pressure level, or 7 to 12 kilometres (4.3 to 7.5 mi) above sea level, while the weaker subtropical jet stream's altitude is higher, between 10 and 16 kilometres (6.2 and 9.9 mi) above sea level.

NOAA image

The polar jet stream used to travel at speeds of up to 140 miles per hour, while following a relatively straight track that was meandering only slightly, i.e. with waves that go up and down only a little bit. This fast and relatively straight jet stream kept climate zones well apart. Accordingly, the Northern Temperate Zone used to experience only mild differences between summer and winter weather, rather than the extremely hot or cold temperatures that we're increasingly experiencing now.

Polar jet stream (blue) & subtropical
jet stream (red) - NOAA image

Loss of snow and ice cover in the north is accelerating warming in the Arctic. This is decreasing the difference in temperature between the Arctic and the Northern Temperate Zone, in turn causing the polar jet to slow down and become more wavy, i.e. with larger loops, as illustrated by the animation below.

Imagine a river that at first rapidly runs down a narrow and straight path when its waters fall down from the top of a high mountain. Once that river flows through flat land, though, it becomes slow and curvy.

Similarly, the polar jet stream is now circumnavigating the globe at slower speed and along a wavier tracks. Its waves are now more elongated, more stretched out vertically, making that cold air can move more easily down from the Arctic, e.g. through the middle of North America, as illustrated by the animation below.

At the same time, warm air can move up more easily from the South into the Arctic. This is creating huge temperature anomalies in many places, as also illustrated by the animation below.

High temperatures in the Arctic

The NOAA map below shows sea surface temperature anomalies above 8 degrees Celsius in the Arctic Ocean.

These anomalies are very high, considering that it is now June and the melting season has only just begun.

Partly causing these high temperatures in the Arctic Ocean is water flowing into the Arctic Ocean from rivers. As the map below shows, a number of large rivers flowing through Siberia end in the Arctic Ocean.

map from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Rs-map.png

The Naval Research Laboratory image below shows waters with very low salinity levels (top white rectangles) where warm water from rivers in Siberia enters the Arctic Ocean.

Accelerated warming of the Arctic has changed (and is still further changing) the Jet Streams, increasing the occurence of heat waves on the Norhern Hemisphere that cause huge amounts of warm water to flow into the Arctic Ocean. This is illustrated by the animation below.

Roadmap for Repowering California for all Purposes with Wind, Water, and Sunlight

A study by Mark Z. Jacobson et al. concludes that California’s power needs (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry) can be met entirely by WWS technologies.

The necessary WWS (wind, water, and sunlight) technologies consist of wind turbines, concentrated solar power (CSP) plants, solar photovoltaic (PV) plants and rooftop systems, solar hot water heater systems, geothermal power plants, a few additional hydroelectric power plants, and a small amount of tidal and wave power.

Transportation will use battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs), and hybrid BEV-HFCVs. The hydrogen, where needed, will be produced with electrolysis (i.e. with electricity). While using electrolytic hydrogen in transportation will generally be less efficient and more costly than using BEVs, there are some segments of transportation where hydrogen-energy storage may be preferred over battery-energy storage (e.g., ships, aircraft, long-distance freight).

High temperatures for industrial processes will be produced with electricity and hydrogen, with hydrogen again produced with electricity.

Electricity-powered air-source and ground-source heat pumps, geothermal heat pumps, and backup electric resistance heaters will be used for building heating and air conditioning. Air-source heat pump water heaters powered by electricity and solar hot water preheaters will provide hot water for buildings.

This roadmap can serve as a template for plans in other states and countries. The implementation of similar plans worldwide should essentially eliminate energy-related global warming and energy insecurity, while substantially reducing energy insecurity.

For more, go to:

http://thesolutionsproject.org/

and

http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html

Earthquakes and Warm Water threaten Arctic

[ soucre: NOAA image - click to enlarge]

A major earthquake hit the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, on June 23, 2014.

The earthquake occurred at 51.797°N 178.760°E, 15 miles (24 km) southeast of Little Sitkin Island, Alaska, at a depth of 66.8 miles (107.5km).

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earlier listed the earthquake at a magnitude of 8 on the Richter scale, but eventually gave the quake a magnitude of 7.9.

Initial tsunami warnings, as reflected by the two NOAA images on the right, were later cancelled, e.g. the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii said the earthquake’s epicenter was too deep to pose a tsunami threat to its coasts.

Indeed, earthquakes that occur at less depth, i.e. closer to the seafloor, pose a greater tsunami threat, as more energy will enter the sea as kinetic energy pushing up wave height propelled in the form of a tsunami.

Earthquakes that occur at greater depth pose other kinds of threats. When earthquakes hit deep under the sea floor, more energy will translate into shockwaves that can propagate over great distances through the Earth crust, particularly along fault lines.

[ source: NOAA image - click to enlarge]

In this case, the situation is particularly threatening for the Arctic Ocean. As the map below shows, the fault line where this earthquake hit extends through Siberia into the Laptev Sea and was hit by three earthquakes recently:

M 4.9 - East of Severnaya Zemlya
2014-06-22 23:58:24 UTC
Location 78.520°N 125.942°E
Depth 10.00 km (6.21 mi)

M 4.7 - Laptev Sea
2014-06-01 08:52:43 UTC
Location 75.012°N 133.665°E
Depth 10.00 km (6.21 mi)

M 4.8 - 172km N of Deputatskiy, Russia
2014-05-29 05:07:33 UTC
Location 70.844°N 139.761°E
Depth 10.00 km (6.21 mi)

A cluster of earthquakes that recently hit the Aleutian Islands shows up in green in the top right corner op above map. Also note the red dot on the right, respresenting a M 4.1 earthquake that hit the Sea of Okhotsk on June 22, 2014 (at 09:47:47 UTC, location 51.843°N 151.310°E), at a depth of 527.66 km (327.87 mi).

Earthquakes are a major threat for the Arctyic as they can destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments under the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

The situation is the more dangerous given the warm sea water that threatens to enter the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.

As the recent NOAA overview of the climate situation in May 2014 describes, combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces reached a record high for May, at 0.74°C (1.33°F) higher than the 20th century average. Across the oceans, the global monthly-averaged sea surface temperature was 0.59°C (1.06°F) higher than the 20th century average, marking the highest May temperature on record. This is further illustrated by the image below.

Meanwhile, the situation hasn't improved, as illustrated by the image below.

The NOAA image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic Ocean on June 23, 2014, with many areas showing anomalies above 8 degrees Celsius.



According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is about a 70% chance that El Niño conditions will develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014 and an 80% chance it will develop a few months later.

As discussed in earlier posts, the sea ice is already very thin, and while ocean heat is melting the sea ice from beneath, the sun is warming up the ice from above. At this time of year, insolation in the Arctic is at its highest, as Earth reaches its maximum axial tilt toward the sun of 23° 26'. In fact, insolation during the months June and July is higher in the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth, as discussed at this earlier post.

Feedbacks further accelerate warming in the Arctic, as described in the earlier post Feedbacks in the Arctic. Temperature rises of the water close to the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean is very dangerous, as heat penetrating sediments there could cause hydrate destabilization, resulting in huge amounts of methane entering the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean.

In conclusion, the situation is the Arctic is threatening to escalate into runaway warming and urgently requires comprehensive and effective action as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.