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Saturday, August 22, 2026

Antarctic sea ice increasingly in danger

On August 23, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.24°C or 70.23°F, an anomaly of +1°C or +1.8°F from 1982-2010, the highest sea surface temperature on record and the highest anomaly on record. The globe (inset) shows the temperature anomaly vs 1991-2020 on August 23, 2026, with the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) highlighted.

The image below shows the global sea surface temperature anomaly on August 23, 2026.

The image below, from Copernicus, shows a sea surface temperature of 21.1°C or 69.98°F on August 21, 2026, a record high temperature and an anomaly of +0.67°C or +1.21°F from 1991-2020.

High sea surface temperatures have a detrimental impact on sea ice and the 2026 El Niño is on track to become the strongest on record.

On August 23, 2026, the global sea ice area was 3.02 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.58σ. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2016, 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple. Both 2016 and 2023 were strong El Niño years.

Ocean heat is not the only mechanisms causing sea ice decline. Below are eight mechanisms that are heating up the Arctic Ocean and low Arctic sea ice in 2026 will also have a detrimental impact on Antarctic sea ice, threatening to cause a double Blue ocean event.

Eight mechanisms heating up the Arctic Ocean

1. Ocean heat

The image below shows the sea surface temperature anomaly on August 23, 2026, this time with a projection that highlights how much the Arctic Ocean is getting hit by high sea surface temperatures. The blue areas in the Arctic Ocean indicate heavy melting of sea ice. There no longer is a cold area visible south of Greenland, indicating that this cold area has been overwhelmed by rising sea surface temperatures.

Geographic conditions are also important. Warm water is pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. This is illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, showing sea surface temperatures as high as 34°C (or 93.2°F) around North America on August 22, 2026 and illustrating geographic conditions facilitating the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic.

2. Insolation

Another important mechanism is high insolation. In line with seasonal changes, huge amounts of sunlight are reaching the Arctic at this time of year, which directly heats up the water, while heatwaves on land can extend over the Arctic Ocean and hot air can be pushed over the Arctic Ocean due to strong wind, further heating up the water of the Arctic Ocean, especially where the sea ice has now disappeared.

3. Wind patterns and ocean currents

While wind strengthens as temperatures rise, polar amplification of global warming is narrowing the temperature difference between the Equator and the Poles, and this can slow down and distort wind patterns such as the Jet Stream and ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Meriodinal Ocean Circulation (SMOC).

Changes to wind patterns and ocean currents constitute a third mechanism that can at times dramatically increase the polar temperature, e.g. slowing down of AMOC can cause huge amounts of ocean heat to accumulate in the North Atlantic, while a stronger cyclone can abruptly push much of this ocean heat abruptly into the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruption of methane from the seafloor.

4. Albedo

Albedo change constitutes a fourth mechanism. Decline of the snow and ice cover is causing more sunlight to get absorbed by the surface, instead of getting reflected back into space as was previously the case. Many aerosols such as soot (from burning fuel in the Northern Hemisphere) and dust are reaching the Arctic and are settling down on the snow and ice cover, thus contributing to albedo change. Decline of the snow and ice cover and higher temperatures also result in stronger growth of plants and algae, further speeding up the temperature rise due to albedo changes.

Arctic sea ice is in a bad shape. The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 22, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (right).

The image below shows the Arctic on August 8, 2026, illustrating that there can be a huge difference between the bright white color of the snow and ice cover over Greenland (bottom right), the color of melting sea ice (left) and the dark color of the water where the sea ice has disappeared.

5. Emissivity

Research led by Feldman (2014) found that open oceans are much less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum. The research team used a computer model that showed that open oceans hold more far-infrared energy than sea ice, resulting in warmer oceans, melting sea ice, and a 2°C rise in the polar climate after 25-year run.

6. Heatwaves and water from land

As coasts around the Arctic Ocean heat up, this will also heat up run-off from land and the water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean.

This is illustrated by the image on the right that shows sea surface temperatures as high as 18.2°C (or 64.76°F) in the Bering Strait on August 17, 2026. The image below, from an earlier post, shows that on August 19, 2026, the sea surface temperature was 16.2°C (or 29.16°C) higher than 1981-2011 where water of the river Ob flows into the Arctic Ocean (green circle).

Heatwaves on land can extend over the Arctic Ocean, while warm water from land and rivers can additionally warm up the water of the Arctic Ocean.

7. Disappearance of the buffer

The snow and ice cover act as a buffer that consumes heat as the ice melts and permafrost thaws. Disappearance of this buffer constitutes a seventh mechanism that can abruptly and dramatically increase the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean.

8. Further feedbacks and compound impacts

The eighth mechanism includes feedbacks and compound impacts of feedbacks and of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, lightning, fires and ozone, as discussed in posts such as this one. As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean increases, abrupt eruption of huge amounts of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean can also increase temperatures dramatically, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

The image below, from the feedbacks page, illustrates the mechanism of multiple feedbacks amplifying each other and accelerating the heating up of the atmosphere and the water of the Arctic Ocean.

Antarctica

Antarctic sea ice is also in a bad shape. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on August 22, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (right).

The image below shows record high temperatures in the Tropics for the time of year. The image shows temperatures in the Tropics through August 31, 2026, when the temperature was 26.2°C or 79.16°F, an anomaly of +1.27°C versus 1979-2000. The globe shows the temperature anomaly versus 1979-2020 on August 31, 2026. Keep in mind that neither of those periods is a pre-industrial base.

In winter in the Southern Hemisphere, the temperature can be very low on Antarctica. On August 22, 2026, the temperature near the South Pole was below -60°C or -76°F, at the green circle, as illustrated by the image below.

Such large differences between the temperature at the Equator and the temperature at the South Pole come with large pressure differences that are strengthening wind patterns at 250 hPa, where the Jet Streams are located. This is illustrated by the image below, which shows how the flow of the Jet Stream is shaped by differences in pressure levels

The Jet Stream typically goes around Antarctica, forming a barrier that maintains low temperatures over Antarctica and the surrounding sea ice. In this case, however, the Jet Stream is crossing Antarctica, enabling warm, moist air to move over the Southern Ocean and reach Antarctica.

The image below shows an atmospheric river of moisture moving toward Antarctica, with total cloud water of 1.63 kg/m² recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location over the Southern Ocean marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a 3-hour precipitation accumulation of 7.5 kg/m² recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a relative humidity of 100% recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location near the South Pole marked by the green circle.

The image below shows an air temperature of 0.0°C or 32.1°F over the sea surface near Antarctica on August 22, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows that an air temperature of 4.1°C or 39.3°F was recorded over Antarctica at 1000 hPa on August 22, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a forecast for August 21, 2026, of precipitable water anomalies.

Snowfall over Antarctica

In the Southern Hemisphere, water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and evaporation is getting stronger as temperatures rise.

Part of the resulting precipitation falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post and showing a forecast of high precipitable water anomalies over Antarctica on August 20, 2025.

The forecast underneath further illustrates the potential for warm, moist air to travel in the form of atmospheric rivers toward Antarctica and cause significant snowfall over Antarctica.

[ snowfall over Antarctica, forecast for August 2, 2026 ]

As a result of the extra snowfall over Antarctica, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty.

In salty water, sea ice can start melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F), while freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform.

This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop.

Combined impact of El Niño, Antarctic sea ice loss and methane eruptions

The above mechanism was discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. The dramatic decrease in sea ice around Antarctica in 2023 looks set to continue long-term, due to the compound impact of feedbacks that are self-amplified and/or that amplify each other through albedo loss, lower emissivity, loss of the sea ice's latent heat buffer, ocean current changes, salinity changes, ocean stratification, etc.

On August 13, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 2 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -4.44σ, as illustrated by the image below from an earlier post. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the year 2016 is highlighted in purple.

On August 16, 2026, the Antarctic sea ice area was second lowest on record for that day with a standard deviation of -4.68σ, as illustrated by the above image. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the years 2024 and 2025 are highlighted in purple.

The potential impact of El Niño, loss of Antarctic sea ice and methane eruptions has been discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. While the Antarctic methane danger has been described before, such as in this April 2013 post, the main focus of the Arctic-news blog has long been on the Arctic, in particular on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). However, research published in 2025 highlights the dire situation in Antarctica, justifying an additional wider focus on global developments, as discussed on facebook.

Conclusion

The image below shows annual maximum daily precipitation change with a temperature versus 1850-1900 rise of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C, from the IPCC AR6.

The situation looks set to deteriorate further. More water vapor causes more warming, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. As more snow falls over Antarctica, the sea surface of the Southern Ocean increases in salinity, which speeds up melting of sea ice. The extra water vapor and increased melting of sea ice can both strongly accelerate the temperature rise, while water vapor that reaches the stratosphere also causes damage to the ozone layer.

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Copernicus

https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• ClimateReanalyzer

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Extreme heat danger

Forecast of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of 35°C or 96°F in south of Texas, U.S.

A temperature of 39°C or 102°F is forecast for a location in the south of Texas, U.S., for June 18, 2026 20 UTC. With a relative humidity of 51%, this translates into a 'feels like' temperature of 52°C or 125°F and a Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of 35°C or 96°F.

Furthermore, as illustrated by the image below, a temperature of 41°C or 105°F is forecast for another location in the south of Texas, U.S., for June 18, 2026 20 UTC. With a relative humidity of 44%, this translates into a 'feels like' temperature of 52°C or 126°F and a Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of 35°C or 96°F.

Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of 36°C or 97°F forecast to hit location in California

The image below shows a temperature of 47°C or 116°F forecast to hit a location in the south of California on July 25, 2026, 21:00 UTC. With a relative humidity of 17%, this translates into a 'feels like' temperature of 48°C or 119°F and a Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of 36°C or 97°F.

Wet-bulb and wet-bulb globe temperature

The wet bulb temperature measures the lowest temperature to which an object can cool down through the evaporation of water, primarily accounting for heat and humidity in the shade.

According to NOAA, the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is an indicator of heat related stress on the human body in direct sunlight. It takes into account multiple atmospheric variables, including: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle, and cloud cover.

The human body can cool itself by sweating and the stronger the wind, the more one can cool off by sweating. As temperatures and humidity levels keep rising, a threshold can be reached or exceeded where the wind factor no longer matters, in the sense that wind can no longer provide cooling. This physiological limit was long described as a 35°C wet-bulb temperature. i.e. once the wet-bulb temperature reaches this limit, one can no longer lose heat by perspiration, even in strong wind, but instead the human body will start gaining heat from the air beyond a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C.

The image below shows a forecast for July 26, 2026, 21:00 UTC. The image shows a temperature of 122°F (50°C) at a location near Death Valley with a relative humidity of 9% resulting in a wet bulb globe temperature of 95°F (35°C). At the same time, a temperature of 116°F (47°C) with a relative humidity of 20% results in a wet bulb globe temperature of 97°F (36°C) at a location in the south of California.

A 35°C wet-bulb temperature can be reached by a combination of temperature and humidity, and it is the maximum, the absolute physiological limit, that a human can endure as a peak. It was long assumed that reaching such a limit would require a large increase in global temperature. However, a 2020 study (led by Raymond) warns that this limit could be regularly exceeded with a temperature rise of less than 2.5°C (compared to pre-industrial). As the above image indicates, the wet bulb globe temperature limit can already be reached or even exceeded now.

Furthermore, a 2022 study (led by Vecellio) finds that the actual limit can be much lower — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy subjects. The temperature for older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, is likely even lower. In practice the limit will typically be lower and depending on circumstances could be as low as a wet-bulb temperature of 25°C.

Forecast of extreme heat danger in Washington and Baltimore region

Below is a forecast for July 2, 2026, of extreme heat danger in the Washington and Baltimore region, where a wet bulb globe temperature of 35°C is forecast for a location in Annapolis, 31 miles South-Southeast of Baltimore, Maryland.

The above image further illustrates the danger that, as temperatures keep rising, the wet bulb globe temperature threshold can and will increasingly be reached or even crossed in multiple locations in the United States.

High temperature forecasts

The image below shows that a temperature of 117°F (47.22°C) is forecast to hit a location in California on July 9, 2026.

The image below shows that a temperature of 119°F (48.33°C) is forecast to hit a location in California on July 25, 2026.

High temperatures are forecast to hit not only California and Texas, but also many other areas in the United States. The combination image below shows a forecast for July 27, 2026 1 EDT or 21:00 UTC, with a temperature of 117°F (47.22°C) marked for a location in Oklahoma in the panel on the left. The forecast is confirmed by the 7-10 days maximum temperature forecast in the panel on the right.

The image below also shows very high maximum temperatures forecast for large parts of North America.

The image below shows that a temperature of 113°F (45°C) is forecast to hit a location in Montana on July 12, 2026.

The image below is a HRRR forecast showing similar conditions hitting Montana on July 12, 2026, with temperatures marked to be as high as 113°F (45°C).

The image below shows maximum temperature (left) and temperature anomaly (right) on July 12, 2026.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below shows that a temperature of 121°F (49.44°C) is forecast to hit a location in California on August 4, 2026.

Seven mechanisms heating up the Arctic Ocean

There are at least seven mechanisms behind the temperature rise of the water of the Arctic Ocean.

1. Ocean heat

Firstly, warm water is pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. This is illustrated by the image below that shows sea surface temperatures as high as 32.9°C (or 91.22°F) around North America on July 23, 2026. The image also illustrates that geographic conditions facilitate the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north from the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic.

2. Insolation

A second mechanism is high insolation. In line with seasonal changes, huge amounts of sunlight are reaching the Arctic at this time of year, which directly heats up the water, while heatwaves on land can extend over the Arctic Ocean and hot air can be pushed over the Arctic Ocean due to strong wind, further heating up the water of the Arctic Ocean, especially where the sea ice has now disappeared.

3. Changes to wind patterns and ocean currents

While wind strengthens as temperatures rise, polar amplification of global warming is narrowing the temperature difference between the Equator and the Poles, and this can slow down and distort wind patterns such as the Jet Stream and ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Meriodinal Ocean Circulation (SMOC). Changes to wind patterns and ocean currents constitute a third mechanism that can at times dramatically increase the polar temperature.

4. Albedo change

Albedo change constitutes a fourth mechanism. Decline of the snow and ice cover is causing more sunlight to get absorbed by the surface, instead of getting reflected back into space as was previously the case. Many aerosols such as soot (from burning fuel in the Northern Hemisphere) and dust are reaching the Arctic and are settling down on the snow and ice cover, thus contributing to albedo change. Decline of the snow and ice cover and higher temperatures also result in stronger growth of plants and algae, further speeding up the temperature rise due to albedo changes.

5. Water from land

A fifth mechanism is warm water from land entering the Arctic Ocean. As coasts around the Arctic Ocean heat up, this will also heat up run-off from land and water from rivers that enter the Arctic Ocean.

This is illustrated by the image on the right that shows sea surface temperatures up to 18.1°C (or 64.58°F) in the Bering Strait on July 9, 2026.

The combination image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies of 13.1°C (or 23.6°C) higher than 1981-2011 where water of the river Ob flows into the Arctic Ocean on July 11, 2026 (in the panel on the left), and 11.3°C (or 20.3°F) where run-off from Alaska enters the Arctic Ocean (in the panel on the right).

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below shows that a temperature of 112°F (44.44°C) is forecast for a location in South Dakota on July 16, 2026, further illustrating that high temperatures can increasingly hit locations at high latitudes.

6. Disappearance of the buffer

The snow and ice cover act as a buffer that consumes heat as the ice melts and permafrost thaws. Disappearance of this buffer constitutes a sixth mechanism that can abruptly and dramatically increase the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean.

7. Further feedbacks and compound impacts

The seventh mechanism includes feedbacks and compound impacts of feedbacks and of extreme weather events. Abrupt eruption of huge amounts of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as the temperature of the Arctic Ocean increases, has been discussed in many earlier posts such as this one. The image below, from the feedbacks page, illustrates the mechanism of multiple feedbacks amplifying each other and accelerating the heating up of the atmosphere and the water of the Arctic Ocean.

Compound impact of high temperatures, extreme weather events, fires, lightning and ozone

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies of 9.3°C (or 16.8°F) reached on June 27, 2026, at the mouth of the Northern Dvina River in Russia and of 8.2°C (or 14.8°F) south of France in the Mediterranean Sea.

High sea surface temperatures go hand in hand with strong evaporation from the sea surface and high levels of water vapor in the air.

When there is strong wind, this can result in strong thunderstorms, storm damage and flooding.

Alternatively, other wind patterns can at times lead to stagnant high temperature combined with high humidity, and this combination can be hard to bear.

The image on the right shows a very high sea surface temperature anomaly of 16.2°C or 29.2°F (at the green circle) in Hudson Bay on July 14, 2026.

Furthermore, ground-level ozone (O₃) peaks during warm, sunny summer afternoons, as nitrogen oxides (NOx) from motor vehicles and industry react with sunlight and heat to form O₃. Lightning can contribute significantly to O₃. At the surface level, lightning can contribute to more than 40% of O₃ during intense thunderstorms. O₃ in the troposphere is a short-lived yet potent greenhouse gas and ground-level ozone also constitutes a health hazard for wildlife, livestock, people and vegetation, making forests more vulnerable to fires that can be ignited by lightning, as discussed on facebook in a recent comment.

In the video below, Paul Beckwith discusses forest fires burning in Canada.

The compound impact of high temperatures, extreme weather events, fires, lightning and ozone was also discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH₄) and O₃ are linked in several ways. When CH₄ is broken down by hydroxyl (OH), ground-level O₃ is formed, which is both a potent greenhouse gas and a harmful pollutant. Depletion of OH extends methane's lifetime. CO is also broken down by OH in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NOx, i.e. NO + NO₂), as illustrated by the image below.

CO entering the atmosphere during forest fires depletes OH and this extends methane's lifetime. The image below, from Copernicus, shows a forecast for July 17, 2026, of the presence of CO and aerosols such as black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO₄⁻²) over North America during forest fires, when sulphur is volatilized into the atmosphere as gases like sulphur dioxide (SO₂).

The screenshot below warns about the compounding dangers of fires in peatlands in the Arctic.

[ screenshot from earlier post, adapted from a 2026 analysis by Meri Ruppel ]

Brown Carbon (BrC) is an organic carbon (OC) that absorbs light, instead of scattering or reflecting it, so while smoke and BrC may temporarily shade parts of the surface, BrC does contribute to atmospheric heating.

The temperature impact over a short horizon (say, a period of one year) of short-lived climate forcers such as CH₄, O₃, CO, BC and BrC can be enormous. The image below shows a striking difference in temperature impact over 10 years (top row) versus 100 years (bottom tow) of carbon dioxide (CO₂, yellow), CH₄ (orange), BC (dark brown) and CO (green), illustrating that the temperature impact of short-lived climate forcers is much larger when calculated over a shorter period.

[ adaptation of IPCC image, highlighting the impact of CO₂, CH₄, BC and CO ]

The screenshot below also discusses the impact of short-lived climate forcers such as CH₄, stratospheric water vapor (H₂O), BC, CO and O₃.

[ screenshot from earlier post ]

James Hansen once wrote the following (in 2007), mentioning a GWP of BC of ~2000 over 20 years:
"CO₂ is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO₂ emissions and reduce non-CO₂ forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO₂ forcings is methane (CH₄), as it causes the 2nd largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric O₃, which is the 3rd largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N₂O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ("black soot") has a high global warming potential (~2000, 500, and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could still "save the Arctic", while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and the global environment."

As discussed in an earlier post, methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean alone could suffice to abruptly cause a huge temperature rise. Additionally, compound impacts such as described above could abruptly drive up temperatures and strengthen feedbacks, causing industrial activity to collapse and sulfate cooling to end abruptly, in turn resulting in urban fires and in people resorting to burning biomass for heating, transport and cooking of food, further fuelling pollution. This combined impact could cause the clouds tipping point to get crossed and cause a potential temperature rise of 18.44°C (from pre-industrial) in a matter of months, as discussed earlier at the extinction page.

Many of these mechanisms have been discussed in earlier posts such as this one. One mechanism is a cold freshwater lid that is forming at the surface of the North Atlantic, due to ocean stratification, meltwater and increased precipitation falling down the path of the Gulf Stream, as described at this page. The increased freshening of the sea surface may temporarily slow down melting of Arctic sea ice, but it also enables warm water to be carried underneath this lid into the Arctic Ocean, threatening to cause destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane.

At the same time, slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is resulting in less heat arriving in the Arctic ocean, temporarily that is, because the heat is accumulating in the Atlantic Ocean and a single cyclone may suffice to abruptly move huge parts of that heat into the Arctic Ocean.

For now, it appears that slowing down of AMOC and the formation of the freshwater lid are temporarily slowing down the melting of Arctic sea ice. At the same time, though, warm water is accumulating in the North Atlantic and the freshwater lid can enable much of this heat to abruptly - further facilitated by distortion of the Jet Stream - be carried underneath this lid into the Arctic Ocean, threatening to cause destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane. As temperatures keep rising, such freshening can only temporarily slow down Arctic sea ice melting and the 2026 El Niño may prove it to be short-lived.

Extreme weather all over the globe

As the temperature rise keeps accelerating, extreme weather events are striking with increasingly stronger ferocity, sharpened intensity, longer duration, greater frequency, wider ubiquity and with impact that is - accordingly - accelerating in severity.

Extreme weather events are increasingly striking locations all over the globe, as highlighted by the combination image below. A temperature of 52.9°C or 127.1°F was recorded at (a virtual) 1000 hPa on July 4, 2026, over Tibet at a location marked by the green circle (left), while a temperature of 21.3°C or 70.4°F was recorded at the same time and location at the surface in Tibet (right).

Tipping points crossed

The 2026 El Niño could trigger at least 10 tipping points to get crossed, as follows:

the 2026 El Niño could contribute to:
early demise of the Arctic sea ice, i.e. latent heat tipping point +
associated loss of sea ice albedo,
destabilization of seafloor methane hydrates, causing eruption of vast amounts of methane that further speed up Arctic warming and cause
terrestrial permafrost to melt as well, resulting in even more emissions,
while the Jet Stream gets even more deformed, resulting in more extreme weather events
causing forest fires, at first in Siberia and Canada and
eventually also in the peat fields and tropical rain forests of the Amazon, in Africa and South-east Asia, resulting in
rapid melting on the Himalayas, temporarily causing huge flooding,
followed by drought, famine, heat waves and mass starvation, and
collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

[ image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

Conclusion

Links

• NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) - National Weather Service
https://digital.weather.gov

• Wet-Bulb vs Dry-Bulb Temperature Measurements and Climate Change https://climatecheck.com/risks/heat/web-bulb-vs-dry-bulb-temperature-measurements

• Climate Reanalyzer

https://climatereanalyzer.org
Temperatures in Tibet are also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164452475574679

• nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Heat Stress in the US (2025 post)

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/07/heat-stress-in-the-us.html

• Arctic Blue Ocean Event 2025? (update June 2025)

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/06/arctic-blue-ocean-event-2025-update-June-2025.html

• Climate change and trace gases - by James Hansen et al. (2007)
https://www.giss.nasa.gov/pubs/abs/ha02210k.html
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/6319799_Climate_change_and_trace_gases

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html