Sunday, August 17, 2025

Dire State of Climate

El Niño may emerge early 2026

On the image below, very high sea surface temperature anomalies (vs 1981-2011) are showing up in the Northern Hemisphere, as high as 17.1°C or 30.8°F in the Gulf of Ob, where the water of the Ob River flows into the Kara Sea (at the location marked by the green circle).

At the same time, water is colder than 1981-2011 in the equatorial Pacific region, causing a La Niña to emerge, which means that current temperatures are actually suppressed.


El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern that fluctuates from El Niño to La Niña conditions and back. El Niño raises temperatures, whereas La Niña suppresses temperatures. This year, there have been neutral to borderline La Niña conditions, as illustrated by the image below, which also shows that over the past few months, there has been a zigzag pattern of rises and falls around the mean sea surface temperature in Niño 3.4, an area in the Pacific (inset) that is critical to the development of El Niño. 


The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies on August 20, 2025. 


   [ click on images to enlarge ]
As illustrated by the image on the right, the sea surface temperatures of the U.S. North Atlantic were as high as 32.8°C on August 24, 2025, the same peak temperature that was reached on August 5, 2025.

The image shows heat moving north along the path of the Gulf Stream toward the Arctic, threatening to cause more loss of sea ice and permafrost.

Heat naturally flows from hot to cold areas. Furthermore, warm water floats on top of colder water because it is less dense, resulting in stratification. This in combination with the Coriolis effect causes higher sea surface temperatures along the path of the Gulf Stream toward the Arctic, as indicated by water with an orange color on the image. 

Similarly, warm water moves along the path of the Kuroshio Current in the North Pacific. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Despite the current absence of El Niño conditions, extreme weather events have hit many areas around the world over the past few months, temperatures have been very high and Arctic sea ice is in a dire state, as illustrated by the images further below.

As illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA, the ENSO outlook (CFSv2 ensemble mean, black dashed line) favors La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2025-2026. 

[ image from earlier post ]
The image on the right, adapted from ECMWF, shows an ENSO forecast for developments in Niño3.4 through August 2026, indicating that the next El Niño may emerge early 2026 and grow in strength in the course of 2026.

Albedo loss

The next El Niño could be catastrophic, given the dire state of the climate, which is getting increasingly dire, as emissions keep rising, albedo keeps falling, and feedbacks keep growing in strength. The fall in albedo is illustrated by the image below, created with an image by Eliot Jacobson.  


The fall in albedo can be attributed to snow and ice decline, reductions in cooling aerosols (Hansen, May 2025) and changes in clouds (Loeb, 2024). Snow and ice decline and changes in clouds are self-amplifying feedbacks that can rapidly and strongly accelerate the temperature rise as well as trigger and amplify further feedbacks. 

Snow and ice decline

The image below shows that on August 21, 2025, the global sea ice extent was 3.11 million km² below the 1981-2010 mean, a deviation from 1981-2020 of -4.08σ.


The global sea ice extent anomaly is far below the mean for 1981-2010 and close to the anomalies of 2023 and 2024 that were far outside the mean for 1981-2010. That is very worrying, the more so given the current borderline La Niña conditions. Also, extent is only one way of looking at the sea ice decline. The data for concentration, thickness and volume of Arctic sea ice are even more worrying, as discussed below.  

Heavy melting is taking place in the Arctic. The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 25, 2025.


The combination image below compares Arctic sea ice on August 17, 2025, i.e. concentration (left) and thickness (right).


In the panel on the right of the above image, melt pools may give the impression of zero thickness in areas close to the North Pole. Melt pools can indicate that rainfall and/or heavy melting is taking place. 

The image below shows temperature anomalies on August 21, 2025 (left) and on August 22, 2025 (right). As discussed in earlier posts such as this one, in the Northern Hemisphere water evaporates from the sea surface of the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Prevailing winds carry much water vapor in the direction of the Arctic. Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean freshens the surface, forming a buffer that temporarily slows down the decline of the sea ice extent. Similarly, much of the precipitation over land is carried by rivers into the Arctic Ocean, also freshening the surface of the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, heavy melting of Arctic sea ice over the past few months has added further freshwater to the surface of the Arctic Ocean. The slowdown of AMOC can also create a buffer by delaying the transport of ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean. This makes the dire state of Arctic sea ice very significant, even more so since we're in borderline La Niña conditions. Given the increase of Earth's Energy Imbalance and the additional heat that is instead accumulating in the north Pacific and the North Atlantic, more heat looks set to eventually reach the Arctic Ocean, overwhelming such buffers and threatening to cause Arctic sea ice collapse.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image below shows the precipitable water anomaly on August 21, 2025 (left) and on August 22, 2025 (right).

[ click on images to enlarge ]
As discussed in earlier posts such as this one, in the Southern Hemisphere water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and part of it falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer, as also illustrated by the above image that shows persistently high precipitable water anomalies over Antarctica over the past two days (on August 20, 2025 and on August 21, 2025). As a result, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty. As also discussed in an earlier post, saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing the cycle.

The image below shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the day on August 23 2025, as it has been for more than a year. Volume is important, as also discussed on facebook. 


As the image below shows, Arctic sea ice reached a new record annual low volume in September 2024.

On the image below, markers are added for September (red) and April (blue) corresponding with the year's minimum- and maximum volume, confirming the downward path since 2015 for both the annual sea ice volume minimum and maximum.

Arctic sea ice volume has steadily declined since 2005, as the above measurements by the Danish Meteorological Institute show. Arctic sea ice volume now is less than 5000 km³, about half of what the volume was in 2004-2013.

Absence of thick sea ice makes it prone to collapse, and this raises the question whether it could collapse soon, even this year. Storms could rapidly push the remaining pieces of thicker sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean. Such storms could also mix surface heat all the way down to the seafloor, especially in areas where seas are shallow. 

Methane

[ The Buffer is gone, from Accelerating Temperature Rise ]
Sea ice constitutes a buffer that previously consumed much incoming ocean heat (left); as sea ice thins, the buffer disappears while more heat also enters the Arctic Ocean (right). Further heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean threatens to destabilize sediments that contain methane, causing eruption of huge amounts of methane.


As temperatures rise, methane concentrations are increasing due to more fires and decomposing organic carbon.

In addition, rising temperatures threaten to destabilize sediments containing vast amounts of methane in the form of hydrates and free gas, causing huge amounts of methane to erupt and enter the atmosphere. Over the Arctic, there is very little hydroxyl in the air, which extends the lifetime of methane over the Arctic. The temperature is already rising much more rapidly in the Arctic than elsewhere in the world, so this would act as a strong self-amplifying feedback.

[ from earlier post ]
The image below shows hourly methane average recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North.


The image below shows a (+3 h) forecast for methane concentration at 850 hPa valid for August 26, 2025 (run August 25, 2025).

Climate Emergency Declaration

The temperature rise is accelerating and the rise could accelerate even more due to decreases in buffers (as described in earlier posts such as this one), due to strengthening feedbacks, especially during an El Niño, and due to further reduction of the aerosol masking effect, which are all developments that could rapidly speed up existing feedbacks and trigger new feedbacks.

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Nullschool.net

• Climate Reanalyzer

• NOAA - sea surface temperatures 
Also discussed on facebook at: 

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

• ECMWF - El Niño forecast

• Extreme Heat Risk

• University of Bremen

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume

• NOAA - CarbonTracker-CH4

• The Methane Monster



For discussions, go to:
https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10172655563020161 



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Friday, August 8, 2025

Extreme Heat Risk

High temperatures on land


The above image, adapted from NOAA National Weather Service, shows extreme heat risk for multiple areas in the U.S. for August 9, 2025, with a location near Imperial, California highlighted with details.
Details for the forecast for this location are: 
- Wet bulb globe temperature: 93°F or 34°C
- Temperature: 102°F or 39°C
- Apparent Temperature: 117°F or 47°C
- Dew Point: 77°F or 25°C
- Relative Humidity: 46%
- Forecast for: August 9, 2025 21:00 UTC

On the above image, this extreme risk area is located at a latitude of 33.22° North. What is remarkable is that on the map there is also a high risk area that extends all the way from the southern border of the U.S. with Mexico to the northern border of the U.S. with Canada, with extreme risk areas showing up at latitudes North higher than for Toronto, Canada. 

The image below, again adapted from NOAA National Weather Service, shows a wet bulb globe temperature forecast for August 11, 2025, with an extreme heat warning highlighted (inset) for a location near Imperial, California.
Details for the forecast for this location are: 
- Wet bulb globe temperature: 95°F or 35°C
- Temperature: 109°F or 43°C
- Apparent Temperature: 121°F or 49°C
- Dew Point: 73°F or 23°C
- Relative Humidity: 32%
- Forecast for: August 11, 2025 21:00 UTC


[ from earlier post ]

The image below, adapted from the heat risk page at the NOAA National Weather Service, shows a forecast for August 9, 2025, updated 10.49 AM EST. The map shows high and extreme risk areas, including an extreme risk area centered around Grand Rapid, Michigan, which is located at a latitude of about 43° North.

The image below shows a heat stress forecast for August 11, 2025, with areas with extreme heat risk showing up in Michigan, while areas with major heat risk are showing up at latitudes as high as in Maine. 


The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a three-day forecast of maximum temperatures run on August 8, 2025.


The above images illustrate that extreme weather events that come with very high, even fatal heat stress conditions can now increasingly occur almost anywhere in the U.S.

Friederike Otto, climatologist at Imperial College London concludes: “Even relatively cold Scandinavian countries are facing dangerous heatwaves today – no country is safe from climate change". 

High sea surface temperatures

In 2023, sea surface temperature anomalies first rose strongly (from 0.15°C on January 7, 2023, to 0.73°C on January 10, 2024). Then, sea surface temperature anomalies came down, in line with ENSO fluctuations (El Niño/La Niña). ENSO fluctuations and forecasts are also discussed in more detail further below. 

Yet, over the past few months, sea surface temperature anomalies have been rising again, reaching an anomaly of 0.44°C from 1991-2020 on August 14, 2025, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from Copernicus and based on ERA5 data.

The image below, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer and based on NOAA OISST v2.1 data, shows sea surface temperatures through August 14, 2025. Sea surface temperatures have risen recently to very high levels, reaching 20.96°C on August 14, 2024, an anomaly from 1982-2010 of 0.72°C.


The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the one-day average sea surface temperature anomaly (from 1971-2000) on August 7, 2025.


[ click on images to enlarge ]
Speeding up Arctic sea ice demise

Arctic sea ice declines due to rising ocean heat. The above image shows very high sea surface temperature anomalies around and inside the Arctic Ocean. These anomalies go up and down with the change in seasons, but they are getting higher over time due to rising Earth Energy Imbalance.

The image on the right, from an earlier post, illustrates the huge amounts of heat that have accumulated in the ocean, showing equivalent ocean heat content on August 9, 2025.

The image on the right underneath shows North Atlantic sea surface temperatures as high as 32.8°C on August 5, 2025. The image shows heat moving up along the path of the Gulf Stream toward the Arctic, threatening to cause more loss of sea ice and permafrost.

    [ from earlier post, click to enlarge ]
Arctic sea ice also declines due to the sunlight heating up the sea ice. Where sea ice disappears, the water heats up rapidly. Arctic sea ice decline comes with feedbacks such as the albedo feedback, i.e. less sunlight getting reflected by sea ice means more heat is getting absorbed, further accelerating the temperature rise. More algae and soot settling on the sea ice can further contribute to albedo loss. 

Feedbacks of the temperature rise can manifest as changes in heat sinks and buffers, with rapid impact on the temperature rise. Oceans constitute a huge buffer that has taken up huge amounts of heat. The capacity of oceans to take up heat threatens to diminish, e,g, due to stratification and changes in ocean currents, as discussed in earlier post such as this one. 

Another buffer is the latent heat buffer that consumes heat in the process of melting snow and ice. Arctic sea ice is getting thinner over the years, and the amount of heat that can be absorbed in the process of melting is getting smaller over time. As the latent heat buffer diminishes, heat that was previously absorbed by the phase change from snow and ice to water, will therefore instead get absorbed by the water, further raising the temperature of the water. As sea ice thickness decreases over the years, less incoming ocean heat can be consumed by melting the remaining sea ice. 

More freshwater temporarily slows down melting of Arctic sea ice

   [ Bering Strait ]
Furthermore, Arctic sea ice decline is due to heat that is moving with the flow of rivers into the Arctic Ocean. The image on the right shows sea surface temperatures as high as 20.3°C in the Bering Strait on August 7, 2025.

Extreme weather events are getting more severe and are occurring more frequently, including heatwaves and thunderstorms on land that can extend over the Arctic Ocean. Rain falling on sea ice can speed up its demise. Heatwaves and storms over land can furthermore heat up the water of rivers and increase their flow, thus increasing the heat flowing into the Arctic Ocean. 

Also, more evaporation of sea water takes place over the North Atlantic, with more precipitation falling further down the track of the Gulf Stream and its extension north. This also adds more freshwater in the Arctic. 

Water from melting sea ice, from rivers and from precipitation is all freshwater, i.e. it contains no salt. The increase in freshwater at the surface of the Arctic Ocean has resulted in a temporary slowdown in the retreat of Arctic sea ice extent, due to a buffer that spans a maximum of 2°C (as depicted by image below on the right). 

Freshwater buffer looks set to be overwhelmed soon

    [ Saltier water, less sea ice, from earlier post ]
The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). 

Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

As said, the increase in freshwater at the surface of the Arctic Ocean slows down the retreat of Arctic sea ice extent, but this is only a temporary slowdown. Given the speed at which the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, this temporary slowdown looks set to be overwhelmed soon and rapid melting of sea ice looks set to return with a vengeance. 


The above image shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 14, 2025. 

Arctic and Antarctic - two different situations

The image below, by Eliot Jacobson, illustrates the rise of precipitable water (total column) over the years. 


Over the past two months (June-July 2025), the temperature over the Arctic Ocean has been slightly lower than 1951-1980, as illustrated by the image below. By contrast, areas with very high anomalies are visible between 60°S and 90°S. What's happening?


The image below shows that the precipitable water anomaly can be very high at both the North Pole and the South Pole. The image depicts the situation on August 9, 2025 18Z.  


In the Northern Hemisphere, water evaporates from the sea surface of the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Prevailing winds carry much water vapor in the direction of the Arctic. Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean freshens the surface, forming a buffer that temporarily slows down the decline of the sea ice extent. Similarly, much of the precipitation over land is carried by rivers into the Arctic Ocean, also freshening the surface of the Arctic Ocean. And of course, heavy melting of Arctic sea ice in June and July 2025 has added further freshwater to the surface of the Arctic Ocean.

The slowdown of AMOC can also create a buffer by delaying the transport of ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean, but given the increase of Earth's Energy Imbalance and the additional heat that is instead accumulating in the north Pacific and the North Atlantic, more heat looks set to eventually reach the Arctic Ocean, overwhelming such buffers. 

[ Precipitable water anomalies over Antarctica ]
In the Southern Hemisphere, water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and part of it falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer, as illustrated by the image on the right, showing a forecast of high precipitable water anomalies over Antarctica on August 20, 2025.

As a result, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty. As discussed in an earlier post, saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing the cycle.

In conclusion, geographic differences result in different precipitation outcomes and this in turn causes salinity differences that are behind these temperature anomaly differences. 

As said, the slowdown in the decline of Arctic sea ice extent that results from the increase in freshwater is temporary. Given the speed at which the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, this temporary slowdown looks set to be overwhelmed soon and rapid melting of sea ice looks set to return with a vengeance.

By contrast, the dramatic decrease in sea ice around Antarctica looks set to continue long-term, as a feedback that is amplified by albedo loss, lower emissivity, loss of the sea ice's latent heat buffer, ocean current changes and salinity changes. 

Dire state of sea ice

The net result is illustrated by the image below. The global sea ice area anomaly was 2.62 million km² below the 1981-2010 mean on August 13, 2025, a standard deviation of -4.13σ from 1981-2010. The image shows that the global sea ice area anomaly was well below 1981-2010 in the years 2023, 2024 and 2025, which is remarkable, since there was a La Niña early in 2025. The year 2016 is also marked, since 2016 was a strong El Niño year.
The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through August 11, 2025, when volume was at a record daily low, as it has been for more than a year. 

High temperatures and dire state of sea ice despite borderline La Niña

What makes these high temperatures on land and the dire state of the sea ice even more significant is that there currently are no El Niño conditions. As illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA, the ENSO outlook (CFSv2 ensemble mean, black dashed line) favors borderline La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2025-2026, which suppresses temperatures.

Over the past few months, there's been a zigzag pattern of rises and falls in sea surface temperatures in Niño 3.4, an area in the Pacific (inset) that is critical to the development of El Niño, as illustrated by the image below.


On August 11, 2025, the temperature in Niño 3.4 reached 26.51°C, an anomaly of 0.36°C vs 1991-2020. An El Niño event is defined by NOAA as an episode of at least five consecutive 3-month running mean sea surface temperature anomalies vs 1971-2000 surpassing the threshold of 0.5°C in the Niño 3.4 area, as illustrated by the image below.


The image on the right, adapted from ECMWF, shows the El Niño forecast through August 2026. The next El Niño may emerge soon, and it may continue to grow in strength in the course of 2026. 

The temperature rise is accelerating and the rise could accelerate even more due to decreases in buffers (as described above), due to strengthening feedbacks, especially during an El Niño, and due to further reduction of the aerosol masking effect, which are all developments that could rapidly speed up existing feedbacks and trigger new feedbacks. 

Seafloor methane

One of the most dangerous feedbacks is methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. The image below shows hourly methane average recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North. 


Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), National Weather Service
https://digital.weather.gov

• NOAA - heat risk graphics
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/graphics

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Heat Stress in the US
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/07/heat-stress-in-the-us.html

• High feels like temperature forecast (2024)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/high-feels-like-temperature-forecast.html

• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Point (2023)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html

• ‘No country is safe’: deadly Nordic heatwave supercharged by climate crisis, scientists say 

• Eliot Jacobson - Total Column Precipitable Water 1943 through July 2025
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=122244827390164489

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume

• NOAA - Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

• ECMWF - El Niño forecast

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv



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Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Extreme weather gets more extreme

More than 43,000 homes lose power as Storm Floris brings gusts of up to 82 mph, says a BBC report of August 4, 2025. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
As the temperature rise hits the Arctic harder than elsewhere in the world, the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator narrows, which slows down the jet stream and distorts its path, making the jet stream meander more. 

As the jet stream slows down, distortion can cause parts of the jet stream at times to move faster. In the above image on the left, the polar jet stream and the subtropical jet stream have merged over the Atlantic Ocean, reaching speeds as high as 302 km/h or 187 mph over the North Sea on August 5, 2025 01:00 UTC (green circle on above image left).


    [ click on images to enlarge ]
Furthermore, as temperatures rise and oceans heat up, the increased energy can at times strongly speed up ocean currents and winds. 

The above image shows sea surface temperatures as high as 32.7°C or 90.0°F, recorded south of Florida on August 3, 2025 12:00 UTC (at the green circle). The above image also shows the path of the Jet Stream (right) matching the path of the Gulf Stream (left), thus strengthening and speeding up the Gulf Stream and its extension North over the Atlantic Ocean and to the Arctic Ocean. 

The image on the right shows North Atlantic sea surface temperatures as high as 32.8°C on August 5, 2025, and the image on the right underneath illustrates the huge amounts of heat that have accumulated in the ocean, showing equivalent ocean heat content on August 5, 2025. 

Heat is moving up along the path of the Gulf Stream toward the Arctic, threatening to accelerate loss of sea ice and permafrost.

As temperatures rise, sea ice decline accelerates due to feedbacks such as the albedo feedback, i.e. less sunlight getting reflected by sea ice means more heat gets absorbed, further accelerating the temperature rise. 

The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 7, 2025. 


As illustrated by the image below, global sea ice extent was 21.89 million km² on August 5, 2025, a deviation of -4.71σ.


There are also tipping points, e.g. as sea ice volume declines over the years, the buffer disappears that previously consumed huge amounts of ocean heat in the process of melting the ice. 

Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on August 6, 2025, as it has been for more than a year, as illustrated by the image below. 

    [ NOAA ENSO outlook ]
What makes the dire state of the sea ice even more significant is that there currently are no El Niño conditions. As illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA, the ENSO outlook (CFSv2 ensemble mean, black dashed line) favors borderline La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2025-2026.

The temperature rise is accelerating and the rise could accelerate even more due to such feedbacks, especially during an El Niño and due to further reduction of the aerosol masking effect, two developments that could rapidly speed up existing feedbacks and trigger new feedbacks. 

One of the most dangerous feedbacks is methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. The image below shows hourly methane average recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North. 


The image below shows that the degree to which sulfate aerosols scatter and absorb light was as high as 4.500 τ on August 5, 2025, at 04:00 UTC at the location marked by the green circle.

[ sulfates contribute to the aerosol masking effect ]

The aerosol masking effect may be stronger than the IPCC's estimate, which would mean that the total warming due to people-caused emissions + feedbacks is higher. A 2022 study concludes that when ammonia, nitric acid and sulfuric acid are present together, they contribute strongly to the formation of cirrus clouds. Once released in the upper troposphere, ammonia can form particles with nitric acid, which is abundantly produced by lightning. As described in an earlier post, more burning of biomass and more extreme weather events such as forest fires and lightning can come with huge releases of gases and aerosols. Another earlier post shows how forest fires can come with high releases of sulfur dioxide, raising suspicions that forest fires can revolatilize sulfur emitted over decades from coal-fired power plants and settled on forest soil.

Sadly, the IPCC keeps downplaying the potential impact of feedbacks such as changes to ocean currents, wind patterns, clouds and water vapor, and loss of sea ice and permafrost, thus failing to warn people about a near-future in which temperatures could rise strongly due to such feedbacks, especially during an El Niño, and due to further reduction of the aerosol masking effect, developments that could rapidly speed up existing feedbacks and trigger new feedbacks, resulting in more extreme weather events striking with a ferocity, frequency and ubiquity that keeps increasing at an accelerating pace.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.




Links

• More than 43,000 homes lose power as Storm Floris brings gusts of up to 82 mph - BBC August 4, 2025 

• NOAA - The Jet Stream

• University of Miami - Rosenstiel School - North Atlantic OHC

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• NOAA - flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/index.php

• Synergistic HNO3 H2SO4 NH3 upper tropospheric particle formation - by Mingyi Wang et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04605-4
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160005189729679




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