Saturday, February 8, 2014

CO2 growth highest on record

Despite many promises, global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) continue to grow.

NOAA figures show that 2013 CO2 level growth was the highest ever recorded, i.e. 2.95 ppm.

The EPA expects U.S. 2013 energy-related CO2 emissions to be 2% higher than in 2012.

The UC San Diego image below shows CO2 levels in the atmosphere over the past two years.

Back in September 2013, John Davies warned: The world is probably at the start of a Runaway Greenhouse Event which will end most human life on Earth before 2040. This will occur because of a massive and rapid increase in the carbon dioxide concentration in the air which has just accelerated significantly. The increasing Greenhouse Gas concentration, the gases which cause Global Warming, will very soon cause a rapid warming of the global climate and a chaotic climate.

The post featured a graph with a 4th-order polynomial trendline pointing at some 7.5 ppm CO2 annual growth by 2040. While many welcomed the warning contained in the graph, some argued against using higher-order polynomial trendlines. So, for those who don't feel comfortable with a 4th-order polynomial trendline, the graph below adds both a linear trendline and a 3rd-order polynomial trendline.

The 3rd-order polynomial trendline, based on the recent data, points at CO2 annual growth of some 7 ppm by 2040, justifying the warning sounded by the 2013 graph.

And what do the recent data say, when a 4th-order polynomial trendline is applied? As the image below shows, they show an even steeper rise, reaching 7 ppm growth per year as early as 2030.

As many posts at this blog have warned, rapid growth in greenhouse gases and numerous feedbacks are threatening to push Earth into runaway global warming. This calls for comprehensive and effective action to - among other things - reduce atmospheric CO2 levels back to 280 ppm, as illustrated by the image below and as further discussed at the Climate Plan blog.


  1. Looking at the NOAA figures for CO2 rise, it's obvious yearly increases are accelerating and soon yearly increases will surpass net yearly seasonal variation. Since it is Earth and her ecosystem holding HZ for the planet relative to solar insolation gain going out of control and since plants and animals are temp sensitive, things; Things don't look good for the future.. Having said that, it is still possible, theoretically with peace, to align economy up using framework change to world monetary to value restoring Nature's Open Systems Large which formerly kept Earth habitable.. If this happens and people have the willingness to be Brave to Max the breaking of grip of Second Law of Thermodynamics is possible and prosperity for all but the damned could rise, But hysteresis and all manner of obstacles lay in our way, not least the heat pulse of moist warmth now getting into Arctic due to the breakdown of the N Polar Jet in effect. And the Methane in hydrate form is going to go- -flat Nuts on us and our planet. Not Nuts like the saying went by the commander of men at
    the battle of the bulge went. There are no armed forcings coming to the rescue save a good idea going nuts maybe.
    However, This is not a battle but effect of bullet in flight and a snap recognition of a feeling at Large..
    But that is from my perspective war, not the poor person without light or electric in Papua highlands.
    It isn't the top issue to those displaced by the war in Syria or the issues of fairness for people, Libya.

  2. I keep hearing that we are nearing a tipping point or are "at the start of a Runaway Greenhouse Event". After following climate research for many years, it is my opinion that we are past a tipping point and that the extinction of the human race is inevitable. Only massive volcanic eruptions or a nuclear winter can halt this, and then only temporarily, and, of course, with their own devastating effects. What I once thought would hurt people two generations hence will probably be my own death.

    1. As said in the post, I advocate action as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.

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