Methane levels as high as 2845 parts per billion (ppb) were recorded on April 25, 2015, as illustrated by the image below.
This is an extremely high peak. The average daily peak in 2015 until May 1 was 2371 ppb, while the highest daily mean ranged from 1807 ppb (January 10) to 1829 ppb (April 22). Daily peaks and daily highest mean levels in 2015 are shown on the image below.
These peaks are much higher than they were in previous years, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post and showing the average highest peak readings in 2013 and 2014 at selected altitudes..
Peak readings in above image are averages over April 2013 and April 2014. On specific days, peak readings could be much higher, e.g. on April 28, 2014, methane levels were recorded as high as 2551 ppb at 469 mb. As said, methane levels as high as 2845 ppb were recorded on April 25, 2015, while the average peak for the first four months of 2015 was 2371 ppb, and this average was calculated from peaks across altitudes.
The table below shows the altitude equivalents in mb (millibar) and feet.
56,925 ft
44,689 ft
36,850 ft
30,569 ft
25,543 ft
19,819 ft
14,383 ft
8,367 ft
1,916 ft
74 mb
147 mb
218 mb
293 mb
367 mb
469 mb
586 mb
742 mb
945 mb
Peak levels in April appear to be rising strongly each year, following higher peak readings during previous months, especially at higher altitudes, i.e. especially the Arctic Ocean. It appears that much of the additional methane originating from the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere has moved closer to the equator over the past few months, and is now accumulating at higher altitudes over the continents on the Northern Hemisphere, i.e. Asia, Europe, North America and north Africa.
Further analysis of the rise in global mean methane levels appears to confirm the above. The image below shows methane levels on April 22, over three years. While there appears to be little or no rise in mean methane levels at low altitudes, the rise is quite profound at higher altitudes.
[ click on image to enlarge ]
Things look set to get worse. As shown by the image below, from an earlier post, global methane levels have risen sharply from a low of 723 ppb in 1755. Mean methane levels were as high as 1839 ppb in 2014. That's a rise of more than 254%.
As that post concluded a year ago, it appears that the rise of methane in the atmosphere is accelerating. What can we expect? As temperatures can be expected to continue to rise and as feedbacks start to kick in, this may well constitute a non-linear trend. The image below shows a polynomial trend that is contained in IPCC AR5 data from 1955 to 2011, pointing at methane reaching mean global levels higher than 3000 ppb by the year 2030. If methane starts to erupt in large quantities from clathrates underneath the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, this may well be where we are heading.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan.
The 2845 ppb recorded on April 25, 2015, is an extremely high peak. The average daily peak in 2015 until now was 2372...
Posted by Sam Carana on Monday, April 27, 2015
Have we gone mad? A new report released today explains why contemporary climate change policy-making should be characterised as increasingly delusional.
As the deadline approaches for submissions to the Australian government's climate targets process, there is a flurry of submissions and reports from advocacy groups and the Climate Change Authority.
Most of these reports are based on the twin propositions that two degrees Celsius (2°C) of global warming is an appropriate policy target, and that there is a significant carbon budget and an amount of "burnable carbon" for this target, and hence a scientifically-based escalating ladder of emission-reduction targets stretching to mid-century and beyond.
A survey of the relevant scientific literature by David Spratt, "Recount: It's time to 'Do the math' again", published today by Breakthrough concludes that the evidence does not support either of these propositions.
The catastrophic and irreversible consequences of 2°C of warming demand a strong risk-management approach, with a low rate of failure. We should not take risks with the climate that we would not take with civil infrastructure.
There is no carbon budget available if 2°C is considered a cap or upper boundary as per the Copenhagen Accord, rather than a hit-or-miss target which can be significantly exceeded; or if a low risk of exceeding 2°C is required; or if positive feedbacks such as permafrost and other carbon store losses are taken into account.
Effective policy making can only be based on recognising that climate change is already dangerous, and we have no carbon budget left to divide up. Big tipping-point events irreversible on human time scales such as in West Antarctica and large-scale positive feedbacks are already occurring at less than 1°C of warming. It is clear that 2°C of climate warming is not a safe cap.
In reality, 2°C is the boundary between dangerous and very dangerous climate change and 1°C warmer than human civilisation has ever experienced.
In the lead up to the forthcoming Paris talks, policy makers through their willful neglect of the evidence are in effect normalising a 2.5–3°C global warming target.
This evidence in "Recount: It's time to 'Do the math' again" demonstrates that action is necessary at a faster pace than most policy makers conceive is possible.
The great unraveling of how climate catastrophe is unfolding on land and in the oceans, in the atmosphere and the cryosphere, is becoming more and more clear every month.
March 2015 temperatures were the highest for March in the 136-year period of record. NOAA analysis shows that the average temperature across global land and ocean surface temperatures combined for March 2015 was 0.85°C (1.53°F) higher than the 20th century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F).
Ocean temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere for March 2015 were the highest on record. In many ways, the situation looks set to get worse. For the 12-month period from April to March, data from 1880 contain a trendline that points at a rise of 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2032, as illustrated by the image below.
Click on image to enlarge
The rise in Northern Hemisphere ocean temperatures was especially profound in September and October 2014, when methane started to erupt from the Arctic Ocean seafloor in huge quantities.
The image below shows a polynomial trendline pointing at an October Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature anomaly rise of 2°C (3.6°F) by 2030, and a rise of more than 5°C (9°F) by 2050, compared to the 20th century average, from an earlier post.
The images below give an idea of the current sea surface temperature anomalies around North America.
On April 11, 2015, a sea surface temperature of 22.2°C (71.96°F) was recorded off the North
American coast (green circle bottom), a 12.6°C (22.68°F) anomaly (green circle top).
Ocean heat is carried by the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean. The huge amounts of energy entering the oceans translate into higher temperatures of the water and of the air over the water, as well as higher waves and stronger winds.
The image below highlights waves and winds, showing that waves as high as 12.06 m (39.57 ft) were recorded off the coast of North America in the path of the Gulf Stream, while winds with speeds as high as 115 km/h (71.46 mph) were recorded in that area on April 17, 2015.
The combination image below illustrates the threat. A sea surface temperature of 8°C (46.4°F, green circle left) was recorded near Svalbard on April 17, 2015, an anomaly of 6.2°C (11.16°F, green circle right).
Click on image to enlarge
A continued rise of ocean temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere threatens to unleash huge eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, further accelerating the temperature rise in the Arctic and escalating into runaway global warming.
Malcolm Lightcomments: "The Pacific heating must be caused by the southward spreading Arctic methane global warming veil that is able to penetrate through a giant hole in the hydroxyl and ozone layer over the far east and is moving eastwards."
Current methane levels remain extremely high (see this recent post), on track to break the record mean level of 1839 ppb (parts per billion) reached in September 2014.
Above image shows that the highest mean methane levels ranged from 1815 ppb on March 30, 2015, to 1828 ppb on April 17, 2015. The highest peak level during this period was 2483 ppb, reached on April 15, 2015.
The extremely high methane levels are undoubtedly contributing to the high temperatures reached in March, especially at higher latitudes, on top of the dramatic global rise of greenhouse gases in general, as illustrated by above contribution by Peter Carter.
Above image shows that temperature anomalies over much of the Arctic Ocean were at the top end of the scale on April 17, 2015, i.e. 20°C or 36°F.
The image below gives an idea of the temperature differences on April 17, 215. While temperatures over the Sahara in Africa were as high as 32.1°C (89.78°F), temperatures over Greenland were as low as -41°C (-41.8°F). In between, temperatures of 2.8°C (37.04°) were recorded over the waters near Svalbard and of 6.1°C (42.98°F) closer to the coast of Norway.
Such wide temperature differences highlight the importance of looking at peaks, rather than at averages. The year-to-date maximum sea surface temperature anomaly, up to April 18, 2015, gives an idea of the peak anomalies that can be expected as the hot season approaches on the Northern Hemisphere.
Below are details for March 2015.
Temperature anomalies as high as 10.2°C (or 18.3°F) were recorded for March 2015 on Kolguyev Island in the Barents Sea.
A rise in ocean temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere of 2°C (3.6°F) by October 2030 looks set to go hand in hand with a 6°C (10.8°F) rise in Arctic temperatures by 2030, fueling runaway global warming, as illustrated by the image below, from another earlier post.
Without action, similar temperature rises look set to hit the globe at large a dozen years later, accompanied by huge temperature swings that threaten to cause depletion of supply of food and fresh water, as discussed by Guy McPherson in the video below and illustrated by the image further below.
Guy McPherson (left) in discussion with Paul Beckwith (right)
Ocean temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere for March 2015 were the highest on record. In many ways, the...
Posted by Sam Carana on Saturday, April 18, 2015
On April 9, 2015, Arctic sea ice extent was only 14.051 square km, a record low for the time of the year, as illustrated by the image below.
Temperature anomalies at the top end of the scale (20°C, or 36°F) are hitting the Arctic Ocean in many places, as illustrated by the forecast below, showing an overall anomaly of +3.19°C for the Arctic for April 11, 2015, despite low temperatures over Greenland.
The situation is very worrying, the more so since a huge amount of ocean heat is lining up to be carried into the Arctic Ocean by the Gulf Stream. On April 10, 2015, sea surface temperatures of 24.1°C were recorded off the North American coast (green circle), a +12.5°C anomaly, as the image below shows.
Malcolm Lightcomments: In this inverted blowup of the high temperature region you can see the expanded effect of methane hydrate detabilization along the Gakkel Ridge and the high temperatures caused by the onshore methane eruption vents (image below).
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.
On April 9, 2015, Arctic sea ice extent was only 14.051 square km, a record low for the time of the year. From the post ...
