Tuesday, October 9, 2012

How to avert an intensifying food crisis

As extreme weather intensifies, the food crisis intensifies. Storms and floods do damage to crops and cause erosion of fertile topsoil, in turn causing further crop loss. Similarly, heatwaves, storms and wildfires do damage to crops and cause topsoil to be blown away, thus also causing erosion and further crop loss. Furthermore, they cause soot, dust and volitale organic compounds to settle on snow and ice, causing albdeo loss and further decline of snow and ice cover.

Extreme weather intensifies as the Arctic warms and the polar vortex and jet stream weaken, which is fueled by accelerated warming in the Arctic. There are at least ten feedbacks that contribute to further acceleration of warming in the Arctic and without action the situation looks set to spiral away into runaway global warming, as illustrated by the image below.

Diagram of Doom, with Comprehensive Plan of Action added  (credit: Sam Carana, October 9, 2012)

To avert an intensifying global food crisis, a comprehensive plan of action is needed, as also indicated on the image. Such a plan should be comprehensive and consider action in the Arctic such as wetland management, ice thickening and methane management (methane removal through decomposition, capture and possibly extraction).

Related:
- Threat to global food supply makes comprehensive action imperative
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/threat-to-global-food-supply-makes-comprehensive-action-imperative.html

- Comprensive Plan of Action
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/comprehensive-plan-of-action.html

- Diagram of Doom
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/diagram-of-doom.html

- Opening further Doorways to Doom
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/opening-further-doorways-to-doom.html

- Terraforming Earth
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/terraforming-earth.html

- Changes to Polar Vortex affect mile-deep ocean circulation patterns
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/changes-to-polar-vortex-affect-mile-deep-ocean-circulation-patterns.html

- Arctic sea ice loss is effectively doubling mankind's contribution to global warming

Terraforming Earth

Terraforming

Terraforming is a fascinating idea. Creating Earth-like conditions on other planets or on the moon, or inside structures built in space, that has long been a popular theme in many science fiction stories. 

What are habitable conditions? Many will point at the presence of water and certain minerals. Many will also point at some things our own Earth has, such as an atmosphere that spreads the heat from sunlight around the world, and that has levels of greenhouse gases that keep temperatures within a range that supports life on our planet.

Habitability at risk

At present, changes are taking place in the world that indicate the opposite is happening here on Earth. The conditions that make Earth habitable are at risk in many ways. One threat is the rise in the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 

A safe operating space for humanity is a landmark 2009 study that identifies nine essential areas where sustainability is stressed to the limits, in three cases beyond its limits. In the image below, these areas are pictured as wedges. The inner green shading represents the proposed safe operating space for nine planetary systems. The red wedges represent an estimate of the current position for each variable. The boundaries in three systems (rate of biodiversity loss, climate change and human interference with the nitrogen cycle), have already been exceeded.

 From: A safe operating space for humanity, Rockström et al, 2009.

How to reduce the risk

Global warming is caused by emissions such as from burning fuel. Such emissions are still rising. Such emissions must obviously be reduced dramatically, while additional measures are needed to avoid runaway global warming and to bring the atmosphere and oceans back their pre-industrial state as soon as possible.

The table below shows these nine areas in the column on the left, while examples of technologies that could be helpful in the respective area feature in the column on the right. 

1. Climate changeCDR: biochar, carbon air capture, enhanced weathering, algae bags, EVs, renewable energy, clean cooking & heating, LEDs, etc.
SRM: surface and cloud brightening, release of aerosols
AMM & AWIM: methane capture, release of oxygen and diatoms, wetland management, river diversion, enhanced methane decomposition
2. Ocean acidificationenhanced weathering
3. Stratospheric ozone depletionoxygen release
4. Nitrogen & Phosphorus cyclesalgae bags, biochar, enhanced weathering
5. Global freshwater usedesalination, biochar, enhanced weathering
6. Change in land usedesalination, biochar, enhanced weathering
7. Biodiversity lossdesalination, biochar, enhanced weathering
8. Atmospheric aerosol loadingbiochar, EVs, renewable energy, clean cooking & heating, LEDs, etc. 
9. Chemical pollutionrecycling, waste management (separation)

A Comprehensive Plan of Action

At present, governments support polluting products in all kinds of ways, while they use international agreements or the lack thereof as excuses to avoid making the necessary changes.

To facilitate the shift from polluting technologies to clean technologies, political change is imperative and governments around the world should commit to a comprehensive plan of action such as articulated here.

Reducing emissions is obviously an important part of such a plan. This can be effectively achieved by imposing fees on the sales of polluting products, while using the revenues to fund rebates on locally sold clean alternatives. Each nation can start implementing such policies without the need to wait for other nations to take similar action. Clean products are in many respects already economically competitive. Active support by government is the long-awaited signal for local industries to make the necessary investments and create many local clean jobs in the process, while this also supports people's health and has many further benefits.

Moreover, there is a risk of runaway global warming. This risk is unacceptably high and needs to be dramatically reduced as soon as possible, which makes that geo-engineering will have to be an indispensable part of the necessary plan of action. International agreement must be reached on this, not only to minimize possible negative side-effects, but also to ensure that such geo-engineering will not be used as a way for a nation to avoid taking the necessary action to reduce emissions domestically.

Terra is Latin for Earth and sounds sufficiently ancient to indicate that it refers to Earth like it used to be when it was a habitable planet. Indeed, we need a massive effort to restore Terra to the way it used to be. We need to terraform Earth itself.

The certain catastrophic effects of allowing the Arctic snow summer sea ice to melt away

Image by Peter Carter of the Climate Emergency Institute

Thursday, October 4, 2012

'Rising to Meet the Tide': A Letter to Obama on Climate Change

Gary Houser, long-time public interest writer, documentary
producer currently working on climate tipping points, and
member of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG),
with one of his projects, solar parking for Athens, Ohio.
by Gary Houser

"The threat from climate change is serious, it is urgent, and it is growing. Our generation's response to this challenge will be judged by history, for if we fail to meet it – boldly, swiftly, and together – we risk consigning future generations to an irreversible catastrophe... the time we have to reverse this tide is running out."
—President Obama's speech to the UN in 2009

"There are potential irreversible effects of melting the sea ice... We'll begin to release methane hydrates... There is enough there to cause as much warming as all the coal in the world... It's not clear that civilization could survive that extreme climate change."
 —Dr. James Hansen, renowned climate scientist. (interview for documentary "Arctic Methane Tipping Point?" )


Dear President Obama,

History has conspired to place you at the presidential helm during a turning point moment of unprecedented global significance. The climate crisis preceded your presidency and will still be with us when it ends. But time is quickly running out to prevent this crisis from escalating beyond human control. The staggering record loss of Arctic ice seen this year is a clear sign that the forces of climate change have been set in motion. A growing chorus of scientists and experts believe we are sitting on the knife's edge of  humanity's ability to mitigate or stop the growing threat.

When you chose to open your presidential campaign in Springfield, Illinois in 2008, you made a bold statement about your aspirations to the greatness of an Abraham Lincoln. The mark of a great president is to recognize the moral issue that transcends all others and take the actions which push history in a positive direction. Lincoln did so on the issue of slavery. In a speech to Congress in 1862, he said: "The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew and act anew."

The call that beckons you is to recognize the unique, all-encompassing urgency associated with the need to prevent a global climate catastrophe. There is no higher mission you could possibly perform than to "rise to the occasion" by using your oratorical gifts to inspire humanity to turn back from the brink of oblivion.

While world attention has focused on human-generated carbon dioxide, a sleeping giant has been stirring in the Arctic. Frozen methane is thawing and releasing a global warming gas at least 30 times more powerful than CO2. There is more carbon energy in this methane than all the world's reserves of coal, oil, and natural gas combined. As both open water and methane push Arctic temperatures higher, even more methane is subject to thawing and release—creating the frightening prospect of an unstoppable "runaway" chain reaction, or feedback loop. In a frightening worst case scenario, the planet could be pressed toward a mass extinction event comparable to earlier ones that some scientists attribute (video) to large scale methane release.

In your 2009 speech to the UN you shared these uplifting words: "It is work that will not be easy... But difficulty is no excuse for complacency. Unease is no excuse for inaction... It is a journey that will require each of us to persevere through setback, and fight for every inch of progress."

It is clear why every single "inch of progress" has become a "fight". Though the survival of life on earth surely transcends partisan politics, a fossil fuel industry blinded and rendered senseless by corporate bottomlines has invested mountains of money to attack climate science and confuse the public. Are you willing to "persevere through setback" and speak truthfully by exposing these actions as nothing less than crimes against current and future generations?

History shows that the American people have responded positively to presidents who courageously took the moral high ground in response to soul-testing adversity. Seize your greatness as a president and the people will honor you. Polls show that a majority of the independent voters that campaign strategists say you need are actually with you on climate.

The decision that will be—in your own words—"judged by history" is in your hands. Will you act on behalf of our children and future generations before the "time to reverse the tide runs out"? The moment has come to end the silence.

In your 2008 campaign, you featured these words from Rev. Martin Luther King: "We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now."

However, you did not mention the warning that immediately followed, when King said: "There is such a thing as being too late... We may cry out desperately for time to pause in her passage, but time is deaf to every plea and rushes on. Over the bleached bones and jumbled residue of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic words: 'Too late.'"


Posted with author's permission - earlier posted at commondreams.org