Methane fields in the Laptev Sea

Below is part of a recent interview published by Voice of Russia - click here for the full report. Editorial note: We anxiously await further findings from the research team as to what the source is of these releases, when the methane was formed and by how much these releases are likely to increase over the years.

Methane emission in the Arctic – a possible key to the global warming

Tags: natural resources, Arctic, Society, World, Russia, Opinion & Analysis

Maria Dunayeva

18.09.2012, 16:52

Russian scientists have discovered more than 200 sources of methane emissions in the Arctic, particularly in the north of the Laptev Sea. Two of the methane fields exceed 1 kilometer in diameter, said Igor Semiletov, expedition head aboard the Viktor Buinitsky research vessel. Methane emissions in the Arctic have been observed before and are explained by bacterial activity. Head of the ecology department at Moscow State University, Dmitry Zamolodchikov, spoke about the possible consequences in an exclusive interview with the Voice of Russia. How would you comment on this discovery by Russian scientists? Different examples of methane emissions in Arctic coastal regions and in the tundra systems have been observed over the last 20 or 30 years. There is really nothing surprising about this. Because, first of all, we are talking about frozen substances and cold conditions in the coastal area, in addition to the water pressure, all of which make perfect conditions for so called gas hydrates. That is a bond between methane and water, which looks like snow, and is fairly unstable. Gas hydrates can quite easily break and can cause, correspondingly, methane emissions. Methane emerges as a result of bacteria activity in an environment with little oxygen which decomposes organic substances. The tundra has a humid climate, meaning it has the perfect conditions for the methane-producing bacteria. In that sense tundra is the source of methane and these bacteria are active in this region. In other words the Arctic has many mechanisms for production of natural methane. There are many mechanisms that conserve methane, for example gas hydrates. Many of those mechanisms are broken at higher temperatures. Therefore, in some cases, mass emissions of methane can be observed. Читать далее Source: Voice of Russia.

Professor Peter Wadhams calls for action

In the Youtube video below, Professor Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group of the University of Cambridge and one of the world's top sea-ice experts, joins The Big Picture, a show with Thom Hartmann filmed live and broadcast from the RT America studios in Washington DC.

Professor Wadhams warns that the Arctic sea ice looks set to be completely melted in just a few years. Professor Wadhams adds that action is needed that includes not only emissions cuts, but also geoengineering methods.

It was a Skype connection, so the sound quality was not optimal, but Peter Carter has improved this in the version below. Anyway, the message is important enough to be watched closely and to be further shared and discussed.

The diagram below illustrates this further.

more on this diagram

As the Arctic sea ice retreats, an ever smaller area remains in summer. Snow cover on the ice reflects between 80% and 90% of sunlight, while the dark ocean without ice cover reflects only 7% of the light, explains Stephen Hudson of the Norwegian Polar Institute. As the sea ice cover decreases, less solar radiation is reflected away from the surface of the Earth in a feedback effect that causes more heat to be absorbed and consequently melting to occur faster still.

The image below shows the retreat in September 2012 to date, compared with 7 other recent years.

credit: Arctic Sea Ice Blog

The image below further illustrates the rate at which Arctic sea ice is declining, and thus losing  its reflectivity.

Image produced by Peter Carter based on NSIDC images, showing the now exposed permafrost areas that extend from the continents into the shallow parts of the Arctic Ocean. 

NASA images showing the difference between sea ice cover between 1980 and 2012.

If you like, read more about this at the post Albedo change in the Arctic.

On methane, see this post on increased methane releases in the Arctic and this recent report of methane releases.

Arctic sea ice gone in September 2014

NSIDC have already made a preliminary call that September 16 was the date that sea ice extent was at its minimum in the year 2012.

Volume is something else and the record low hasn't been called yet. Nonetheless, it's interesting to look at where the trend might point at, once a value for 2012 has been added into the picture. On the interactive graph below, data for September 2nd have been added.

Granted, when making projections, it's good to have sophisticated models. I don't claim to have used those, but I've got a good eye and by the looks of it, sea ice will be gone in September 2014.

I look forward to your comments.

NSIDC calls record 2012 low

This NASA satellite image shows how the Arctic sea ice extent, on Sept. 16, 2012, compares to the average
minimum extent over the past 30 years (in yellow). Credit: NASA/Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio.

Arctic sea ice cover likely melted to its minimum extent for the year on September 16, says the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), adding the note that this number is preliminary—changing weather conditions could still push the ice extent lower.

Sea ice extent—defined by NSIDC as the total area covered by at least 15 percent of ice—fell to 3.41 million square kilometers (1.32 million square miles), now the lowest summer minimum extent in the 33-year satellite record.

NSIDC adds that this minimum is 49% below the 1979 to 2000 average, as illustrated by the table below.

Table 1. Previous minimum Arctic sea ice extents

YEAR	MINIMUM ICE EXTENT		DATE
	IN MILLIONS OF SQUARE KILOMETERS	IN MILLIONS OF SQUARE MILES
2007	4.17	1.61	September 18
2008	4.59	1.77	September 20
2009	5.13	1.98	September 13
2010	4.63	1.79	September 21
2011	4.33	1.67	September 11
2012	3.41	1.32	September 16
1979 to 2000 average	6.70	2.59	September 13
1979 to 2010 average	6.14	2.37	September 15

NSIDC adds that the six lowest seasonal minimum ice extents in the satellite record have all occurred in the last six years (2007 to 2012). In contrast to 2007, when climatic conditions (winds, clouds, air temperatures) favored summer ice loss, this year’s conditions were not as extreme. Summer temperatures across the Arctic were warmer than average, but cooler than in 2007. The most notable event was a very strong storm centered over the central Arctic Ocean in early August. It is likely that the primary reason for the large loss of ice this summer is that the ice cover has continued to thin and become more dominated by seasonal ice. This thinner ice was more prone to be broken up and melted by weather events, such as the strong low pressure system just mentioned. The storm sped up the loss of the thin ice that appears to have been already on the verge of melting completely.

NASA says that this year, a powerful cyclone formed off the coast of Alaska and moved on August 5 to the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it churned the weakened ice cover for several days. The storm cut off a large section of sea ice north of the Chukchi Sea and pushed it south to warmer waters that made it melt entirely. It also broke vast extensions of ice into smaller pieces more likely to melt.

“The storm definitely seems to have played a role in this year's unusually large retreat of the ice”, said Claire Parkinson, a climate scientist at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. “But that exact same storm, had it occurred decades ago when the ice was thicker and more extensive, likely wouldn't have had as prominent an impact, because the ice wasn't as vulnerable then as it is now.”

In the press release, NSIDC lead scientist Ted Scambos said that thinning ice, along with early loss of snow, are rapidly warming the Arctic. “But a wider impact may come from the increased heat and moisture the warmer Arctic is adding to the climate system,” he said. “This will gradually affect climate in the areas where we live,” he added. “We have a less polar pole—and so there will be more variations and extremes.”

The image below, from Arctic Sea Ice Blog, shows Arctic sea ice observations (in red) against the backdrop of models used in IPCC AR4 (2007) for projection of sea ice up to the year 2100.

The image below, from NSIDC sea ice news, shows the observed September sea ice extent for 1952-2011 (black line) against a backdrop of projections used by IPCC AR4 (blue) as well as proposed for use in IPCC AR5 (red).

Note: The record low value for 2012 still has to be added on this image. Credit: NSIDC, Stroeve et al.

The image shows that the recently observed decline in sea ice extent is steeper than the CMIP3 models with a “business as usual” SRESA1B greenhouse gas emissions scenario (blue line), as used by the IPCC in AR4.

It is also steeper than the more recent CMIP5 models using a RCP 4.5 scenario (pink line) that are proposed to be used by the IPCC in AR5.

RCP 4.5 is a scenario in which the global temperature rise would would soon exceed 2 degrees Celsius. Since the Arctic experiences accelerated warming, such a scenario would clearly be catastrophic. Looking at sea ice volume, rather than extent, would show this even more clearly.

Below, a NOAA animation showing sea ice decline in 2012 and a NASA animation showing the Arctic cyclone.