Has maximum sea ice extent already been reached this year?

An earlier post wondered whether maximum extent for this year had already been reached, i.e. on February 9, 2016, when sea ice extent was 14.214 million km².

As illustrated by the image below, extent since has been lower, including on the two most recent days on the image, i.e. on February 16 and 17, 2016, when extent was respectively 14.208 and 14.203 million km².

Last year (2015), maximum sea ice extent was reached on February 25. That's close to the most recent date on the image of February 17, so with El Nino still going strong, it may well be that the maximum in 2016 will be reached early.

On the other hand, strong winds could spread out the sea ice and speed up its drift out of the Arctic Ocean, which may result in a larger extent, but which won't do much to strengthen the sea ice.

UPDATES: On February 18, 2016 (arrow), Arctic sea ice extent was 14.186 million square km, i.e. less than it was on February 9. In fact, sea ice extent hasn't been higher on any day since February 9, 2016. So, the question is, has this year's maximum extent already passed us by (i.e. on February 9)?

The image below shows the heat is having a huge impact on the sea ice, with some areas (black) showing sea surface temperature anomalies above 8°C (or above 14.4°F).

Ominously, sea surface off the North American east coast was as much as 11.8°C or 21.3°F warmer on February 19, 2016, than it was in 1981-2011 (at the location marked by the green circle in the image below).

Temperatures over the Arctic Ocean are forecast to remain extremely high for the next five days, with anomalies in a large part of the Arctic Ocean at the top end of the scale, i.e. 20°C or 36°F.

As the image below shows, Arctic sea ice area was at a record low for the time of year on February 18, 2016.



The image below shows that Arctic sea ice extent on February 20, 2016, was only 14.166
million km² (arrow), adding to fears that this year's maximum was already reached on February 9.

The image below shows that Arctic sea ice extent on February 21, 2016, was only 14.160
million km² (arrow), further fueling fears that this year's maximum was already reached on February 9.

Meanwhile, very high methane levels, as high as 3096 parts per billion, were recorded on February 20, 2016, as shown by the image below.

Further analysis indicates that these high levels likely originated from destabilizing methane hydrates in sediments, from a location about latitude 85°North and longitude +105° (East), on the Gakkel Ridge, just outside the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, at the location of the red marker on the map below.

Below is a comparison map, from grida.no

for large-size image, go to grida.no

Below is a map with sea surface temperature anomalies on February 20, 2016. The green circle marks the likely location of sediment destabilization and subsequent methane plume, at about latitude 85°North and longitude +105° (East), on the Gakkel Ridge, just outside the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

zoom in and out at nullschool.net

If you like, you can discuss this further at the Arctic News group or below.

On February 18, 2016 (arrow), Arctic sea ice extent was 14.186 million square km, i.e. less than it was on February 9....
Posted by Sam Carana on Friday, February 19, 2016

Arctic sea ice remains at a record low for time of year

For the time of year, Arctic sea ice remains at a record low since satellite records started in 1979, both for area and extent. The image below shows Arctic sea ice area up to February 12, 2016, when area was 12.49061 million square km.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice extent up to February 12, 2016, when extent was 14.186 million square km.

The reason for the record low sea ice is that there is more ocean heat than there used to be. The image below shows that on February 12, 2016, the Arctic Ocean sea surface temperature was as warm as 11.3°C (52.4°F) at a location near Svalbard marked by the green circle, a 10.4°C (18.7°F) anomaly.

The reason for this is that the water off the east coast of North America is much warmer than it used to be.

The Gulf Stream is pushing heat all the way into the Arctic Ocean.

The image below shows that on February 14, 2016, sea surface temperature anomalies (compared to 1981-2011) off the east coast of North America were was as high as 10.1°C or 18.1°F (at the location marked by the green circle).

While sea surface looks cooler (compared to 1981-2011) over a large part of the North Atlantic, an increasing amount of ocean heat appears to be traveling underneath the sea surface all the way into the Arctic Ocean, as discussed at this earlier post.

This spells bad news for the sea ice in 2016, since El Niño is still going strong. Temperatures in January 2016 over the Arctic Ocean were 7.3°C (13.1°F) higher than in 1951-1980, according to NASA data, as illustrated by the graph on the right.

See the Controversy page for discussion

A polynomial trend added to the January land temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere since 1880 shows that a 10°C (18°F) rise could eventuate by the year 2044, as illustrated by the graph on the right. Over the Arctic Ocean, the rise can be expected to be even more dramatic.

As the NASA map below illustrates, the global January 2016 land-ocean temperature anomaly from 1951-1980 was 1.13°C (or over 2°F) and the heat did hit the Arctic Ocean stronger than elsewhere.

In January 2016, it was 1.92°C (3.46°F) warmer on land than in January 1890-1910. Before 1900, temperature had already risen by ~0.3°C (0.54°F), which makes it a joint 2.22°C (4°F) rise. On the Northern Hemisphere, the rise on land was the most profound, with over 10°C (18°F) warming occurring at the highest latitudes.

Meanwhile, methane levels as high as 2539 parts per billion (ppb) were recorded on February 13, 2016, as illustrated by the image below.

The danger is that, as the Arctic Ocean keeps warming, huge amounts of methane will erupt abruptly from its seafloor.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described at the Climate Plan.

Update: Arctic sea ice extent keeps falling. Last year (2015), maximum sea ice extent was reached on February 25. Could it be that maximum extent for this year was already reached on February 9, 2016? The image below illustrates this question. discussed further at the Arctic News group.

discuss this further at the Arctic News group

Arctic sea ice extent keeps falling. Last year (2015), maximum sea ice extent was reached on February 25. Could it be...
Posted by Sam Carana on Monday, February 15, 2016

Methane's Role in Arctic Warming

Arctic Ocean hit most strongly by global warming

Over the past 12 months, global warming was felt most strongly over the Arctic Ocean, as above image illustrates. Over most parts of the Arctic Ocean, surface temperatures were above the top end of the scale, i.e. more than 2.5°C higher than in 1981-2010.

In January 2016, air temperatures close to sea level (at 925 hPa) were more than 6°C or 13°F above average across most of the Arctic Ocean, as NSIDC.org announced recenty. Moreover, daily average temperatures over many parts of the Arctic Ocean often exceed the top end of the scale, i.e. 20°C or 36°F higher than in 1979-2000, as illustrated by the Climate Reanalyzer forecast below.

So, how can temperature anomalies over the Arctic Ocean at this time of year be so much higher than elsewhere on Earth?

One factor is feedbacks such as changes to the jet stream and decline of snow and ice cover in the Arctic that makes that ever more sunlight is getting absorbed by the water of the Arctic Ocean, in turn causing further decline, as discussed in many earlier posts.

Right now, however, warming over the Arctic Ocean is very pronounced at a time of year when there is a wider temperature difference between the Arctic and the Equator, while there is little or no sunlight reaching the Arctic. So, albedo changes are less relevant, while changes to the jet stream would be expected to be less prominent now. Nonetheless, a strongly deformed jet stream can push a lot of warm air all the way up to the North Pole, while pushing a lot of cold air out of the Arctic over North America, as illustrated by the forecast on the right.

Let's look at some further factors that are at work.

High levels of greenhouse gases over the Arctic

The question was, why is warming hitting to Arctic Ocean so strongly at this time of year? Greenhouse gas levels are higher over the Arctic than elsewhere on Earth. Greenhouse gases trap heat that would otherwise be radiated out to space, and this greenhouse effect is occurring all year long.

[ click on images to enlarge them ]

Let's look more closely at carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. On February 4, 2016, CO2 level at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 405.83 ppm, as illustrated by the image on the right. 

The image below shows that global mean CO2 level on February 6, 2016, was 407 ppm at an altitude close to sea level (972 mb). The image also shows higher CO2 levels at higher latitudes north, with levels over 410 ppm showing up over most of the Northern Hemisphere. 

Carbon dioxide levels on Feb. 8, 2016, were as high as 416 ppm at a location over the Kara Sea (marked by the green circle at the top of the image on the right).

Nonetheless, the levels of carbon dioxide over the Arctic Ocean are not that much higher than elsewhere, i.e. not enough to explain such huge temperature anomalies.

Methane, another greenhouse gas, is also present over the Arctic Ocean at levels that are higher than the rest of the world, as illustrated by the image below, showing methane levels over 1900 ppb over most of the Arctic Ocean on February 4, 2016. 

In the case of methane, the situation is different than for carbon dioxide:

• levels at the North Pole are more than 10% higher than at the South Poles, a much larger difference than for carbon dioxide. 
• methane is reaching its highest levels over the Arctic Ocean from October onward to well into the next year. 
• methane persists longer over the Arctic due to low hydroxyl levels there. 
• methane levels over the Arctic Ocean are high, as increasingly large amounts of methane are rising up from the Arctic Ocean seafloor, making that this methane will inherently be highly concentrated over the Arctic, especially shortly after its release. 

In conclusion, it looks like methane is playing an increasingly large role in warming up the Arctic, especially given its large short-term potency as a greenhouse gas.

from: arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/methane.html

AMOC is carrying ever more heat into the Arctic Ocean

Besides methane, there is another big reason why temperature anomalies are so high over Arctic Ocean at this time of year. Huge amounts of heat are rising up from the water into the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, warming up the air over the water. The warmer the sea, the less ice will form. The weaker the ice, the more cracks and spots where heat gets transferred to the atmosphere.

The water of the Arctic Ocean is getting warmer, compared to previous years, as the Gulf Stream heats up. When referring to the full length from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Ocean, this current is often referred to as the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The direction of AMOC's flow is determined by two forces, i.e. the flow of warm water from the Equator to the north, and the the flow east due to the Coriolis force. The result is warm, salty water is carried by AMOC in the upper layers of the Atlantic toward the north-east, to Arctic Ocean. Eventually, the water sinks and flows back as colder water through the deep Atlantic. As the NOAA image below shows, the amount of heat that has been carried by AMOC toward the Arctic Ocean has been increasing over the past few years.



Overall ocean temperatures are increasing, as discussed in posts such as Ocean Heat and Temperature Rise. As a result, more heat is getting carried toward the Arctic Ocean now. The Gulf Stream off the coast of North America is warming up strongly and is pushing more heat toward the Arctic ocean, compared to previous years. The result is illustrated by the image below, showing huge sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic Ocean near Svalbard, despite the cold lid on the north Atlantic, indicating that the heat is continuing to travel underneath the cold freshwater lid to the Arctic Ocean.

Such high sea surface temperature anomalies are not uncommon in the Arctic Ocean these days. The image below shows that on January 24, 2016, sea surface temperature was 12.3°C or 54.2°F at a location near Svalbard marked by the green circle, a 10.4°C or 18.7°F anomaly.

from: Arctic sea ice area at record low for time of year

Water now much warmer off the North American coast

The water off the east coast of North America is much warmer than it used to be due to emissions that extend from North America over the Atlantic Ocean due to the Coriolis force. The image below, from an earlier post, shows carbon dioxide levels as high as 511 ppm over New York on November 5, 2015, and as high as 500 ppm over the water off the coast of coast of New Jersey on November 2, 2015.

from the post: 2015 warmest year on record

The image below shows carbon monoxide levels. Carbon monoxide depletes hydroxyl, making it harder for methane to be oxidized. So again methane appears to be a major factor.

from: Arctic sea ice area at record low for time of year

Such emissions heat up the Gulf Stream and make that ever warmer water is carried underneath the sea surface all the way into the Arctic Ocean. 

Cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic

Finally, the cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic makes that less heat transfer occurs from ocean to atmosphere. This cold freshwater lid makes that more heat is flowing toward the Arctic Ocean just below the sea surface of the North Atlantic. 

sea ice speed and drift, forecast for February 18, 2016

This cold freshwater lid is spreading over the North Atlantic for a number of reasons: 

• more melting of glaciers on Greenland, on Svalbard and in North Canada; 
• more sea ice drifting into the Atlantic Ocean due to stronger winds. Storms move up the Atlantic in a circular way, speeding up sea ice drift along the edges of Greenland, as illustrated by this video and the images on the right;
• stronger evaporation off the east coast of North America, with moisture being carried by stronger winds to the north-east, resulting in more precipitation settling on the water and thus freshwater getting added to the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the image below.

As above image also illustrates, this cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic could also result in more heat being carried into the Arctic Ocean, due to reduced heat transfer to the atmosphere from water on its way to the Arctic Ocean.

Above image illustrates how higher temperatures over the Arctic (top panel) can go hand in hand with the cold freshwater lid over the North Atlantic (second panel), with high sea surface temperatures off the east coast of North America (third panel) and with higher precipitation over this cold freshwater lid (bottom panel).

The image below indicates that the cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic also goes hand in hand with falling salinity levels.

Precipitation over the North Atlantic is increasing, due to stronger winds and storms there, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the images below. Stronger winds, storms with high levels of precipitation and higher waves can all make the cold freshwater lid spread further across the North Atlantic. 

Above image show that waves as high as 17.81 m or 58.4 ft were forecast for the North Atlantic on February 1, 2016, and as high as 17.31 m or 56.8 ft for February 8, 2016.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the danger is that ever more heat will arrive in the Arctic Ocean. This will result in greater melting of the sea ice, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop that makes that more sunlight gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean (rather than being reflected back into space, as before).

On February 11, 2016, Arctic sea ice had - for this time of year - the lowest extent since satellite records started in 1979, as illustrated by the image below.

The biggest danger is that, as the Arctic Ocean continues to warm, huge amounts of methane will erupt abruptly from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, driving up temperatures over the Arctic dramatically and triggering ever more methane eruptions, resulting in a rapid escalation into runaway warming.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Arctic sea ice area at record low for time of year

Arctic sea ice area on January 28, 2016, was only 12.17902 million square km. At this time of year, sea ice area hasn't been as low as this for at least since satellite records started in 1979, as illustrated by the image below.

based on image from: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Furthermore, on January 29, 2016, Arctic sea ice reached its second lowest extent since the satellite records began, as the image below shows.

based on image from: nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

Why is sea ice at record low?

The sea ice is in a bad shape due to very high temperatures. A forecast for January 30, 2016, shows surface temperatures over the Arctic that are 2.7°C (4.86°F) warmer than they were in 1979-2000. The image below further illustrates this, showing temperature anomalies at the top end of the scale, i.e. 20°C (36°F) above 1979-2000, in many places in the Arctic.

At this time of year, there is very little sunshine in the Arctic. Therefore, these anomalies are caused by sea water that is warmer than it used to be. The image below shows that on January 24, 2016, sea surface temperature was 12.3°C (54.2°F) at a location near Svalbard marked by the green circle, a 10.4°C (18.7°F) anomaly.

Such anomalies are in turned caused by water that is much warmer than it used to be, and that is being carried by the Gulf Stream all the way into the Arctic Ocean.

Water much warmer off the North American coast

The water off the coast of North America is much warmer than it used to be due to emissions that extend from North America over the Atlantic Ocean due to the Coriolis effect. The image below, from an earlier post, shows carbon dioxide levels as high as 511 ppm over New York on November 5, 2015, and as high as 500 ppm over the water off the coast of coast of New Jersey on November 2, 2015.

from the post: 2015 warmest year on record

As discussed at an earlier post, also relevant are other emissions such as carbon monoxide that depletes hydroxyl, making it harder for methane to be oxidized. Below is an update on carbon monoxide levels.

These emissions heat up the Gulf Stream and make that ever warmer water is carried underneath the sea surface all the way into the Arctic Ocean, while little heat transfer occurs from ocean to atmosphere, due to the cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic.

Arctic sea ice in uncharted territory

Update 1: For the time of the year, Arctic sea ice is now at a record low since satellite records started in 1979, both for area and extent. The image below shows Arctic sea ice area up to February 1, 2016, when area was 12.27298 million square km.

based on image from: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

The image below shows Arctic sea ice extent up to February 2, 2016, when extent was 13.932 million square km.

based on image from: nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

Update 2: For the time of the year, Arctic sea ice remains at a record low since satellite records started in 1979, both for area and extent. The image below shows Arctic sea ice area up to February 4, 2016, when area was 12.30656 million square km.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Comprehensive and effective action is needed

This situation spells bad news for what will happen later in 2016, also given the current El Niño. Less sea ice means that less sunlight is reflected back into space, resulting in more heat being absorbed by the Arctic Ocean.

As more heat reaches the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, the risk increases that heat will penetrate and destabilize sediments containing methane hydrates. Methane escaping from hydrates could strongly accelerate warming in the Arctic, causing further melting of the sea ice, in a spiral of warming that could escalate into runaway warming.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.


Related posts

- Why America should lead on climate
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/01/why-america-should-lead-on-climate.html

- Sea surface warmest on record
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/10/september-2015-sea-surface-warmest-on-record.html

- Climate Plan
arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/plan.html

- 2015 warmest year on record
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/12/2015-warmest-year-on-record.html

Arctic sea ice area on January 28, 2016, was only 12.17902 million square km. At this time of year, sea ice area hasn't...
Posted by Sam Carana on Sunday, January 31, 2016

Why America should lead on climate

There are many reasons why America should take the lead in action on climate change.

It's fair and in everyone's interest that America takes the lead

It's fair that those who pollute most, do most to clean things up. America's current and historic emissions are huge, while a lot of what has been produced elsewhere is also consumed in America. Moreover, it's in everyone's interest if America takes the lead. That is confirmed by studies such as this one, showing that there are no technical or economic barriers against cleaning things up. Doing so has many benefits, including job and investment opportunities, and scope for exports. In order for American industries, such as car manufacture, to remain competitive with products from overseas, they must clean up their act. In addition, there are many health and the environmental benefits, while shifting to clean energy will remove perceived needs for America to send military forces across the world to protect global supply lines of fossil fuel.

Legal obligations to act

There are also legal obligations for America to act. Back in 2007, the Supreme Court ruled in Mass. v. EPA that the EPA must act on any air pollutant that endangers public health or welfare. The EPA subsequently found this to be the case for six greenhouse gases and took action, including by issuing plans to limit carbon emissions from power plants. More recently, the United States Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit ruled in favor of the EPA plans.

Furthermore, as Michael Burger points out, Section 115 of the Clean Air Act also authorizes the EPA to act on emissions that contribute to air pollution that endangers public health or welfare in other countries, the more so where the other countries provide the U.S. with reciprocal protections. At the Paris Agreement, such reciprocity was affirmed by some 190 nations (accounting for over 93% of current GHG emissions) pledging to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

In other words, no new laws are needed and action can and should be taken now, as this blog has pointed out for years, e.g. in this 2014 post that featured the image below.



The threat of methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean seafloor calls for urgent action

This blog has repeatedly pointed at another reason why especially America must act, and must do so rapidly, comprehensively and effectively. In October 2015, oceans reached record high temperatures, especially on the Northern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the image below.

Northern Hemisphere October ocean temperatures based on NOAA 1880-2015 data - plot area goes from 1900 to 2050 and from -1 to 4 degrees Celsius above baseline, i.e. compared to the period 1901-2000, the 20th century average.

Above image features a trendline showing that oceans on the Northern Hemisphere could, by the year 2043, be 4°C or 7.2°F warmer than the 20th century average. Increasingly, methane levels over the Arctic Ocean are showing strong increases from October onward, as huge amounts of ocean heat are reaching the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean from that month onward.

North America contributes strongly to accelerating warming of the Arctic Ocean. The Coriolis Effect makes that high levels of emissions originating from North America are extending over the Atlantic Ocean, and are warming up waters off the east coast of North America, as illustrated by the image below.

Top left: CO2 414 ppb green circle, up to 433 ppm in New Jersey. Top right: CO 274 ppb green circle, up to 890 ppb in New Jersey. Bottom left: Jet Stream 250 hPa. Bottom right: Sea surface temperature anomaly 8.5°C/15.3°F green circle.

2015 maximum nightly sea surface temperature anomaly

Carbon dioxide emissions are important, but also relevant are other emissions such as carbon monoxide that depletes hydroxyl, making it harder for methane to be oxidized.

As emissions keep rising, the Gulf Stream will carry ever warmer water into the Arctic Ocean, resulting in greater melting of the sea ice and associated albedo changes that in turn accelerate warming in the Arctic.

Surface temperature anomaly Jan 21, 2015 - Jan 20, 2016
 

This is further illustrated by the images on the right. The top image shows 2015 maximum nightly sea surface temperature anomalies, with anomalies of 5°C off the North American east coast as well as in the Arctic Ocean.

The second image on the right illustrate the extent at which warming in the Arctic Ocean is accelerating, compared to the rest of the world. The image also shows the cold freshwater lid over the North Atlantic.

Temperature anomaly forecast for January 28, 2016
 

As the temperature difference between the Arctic and the equator decreases, the jet stream gets more elongated, at times moving all across the Arctic Ocean. This is one of a multitude of feedbacks that contribute to accelerating warming of the Arctic Ocean. The result is illustrated by the third image on the right, showing strong warming over most of the Arctic Ocean, while at the same time some places on land at higher latitudes north are experiencing extremely cold conditions.

descending cold freshwater on January 25, 2016

Another one of such feedbacks is that warmer water off the coast of North America will result in stronger winds moving over the North Atlantic toward the Arctic Ocean. This can also speed up ocean currents, so it can result in more heat being carried toward the Arctic Ocean both in the atmosphere and the water.

Meltwater from glaciers and sea ice can descend along the edges of Greenland into the North Atlantic, forming a cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic, where it accumulates at the surface over the years, as illustrated by the image on the right that points at a -4°C or -7.1°F anomaly compared to 1981-2011.

In addition, precipitation (rain, snow, hail, fog, etc.) can further contribute to expansion of this cold
freshwater lid over the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the images on the right.

cold freshwater lid over the North Atlantic

While this cold freshwater may constitute a barrier that slows the flow of warm water toward the Arctic Ocean at the surface, the danger is that it prevents heat transfer to the atmosphere from warm water flowing below the sea surface, with the net result of more heat arriving in the Arctic Ocean.

Furthermore, if this cold freshwater lid also prevents water from sinking deeper in the North Atlantic, this may also contribute to more warm water arriving in the Arctic ocean, as illustrated by the bottom image on the right.

Such feedbacks can dramatically accelerate warming of Arctic Ocean, resulting in heat destabilizing sediments that can contain huge amounts of methane.

In conclusion, America must take the lead in action on climate change. It's fair to do so, it will benefit everyone, there are legal obligations to do so and there is great urgency to act in the light of looming methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan. 

In October 2015, oceans reached record high temperatures, especially on the Northern Hemisphere. The image features a...
Posted by Sam Carana on Saturday, January 23, 2016