Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade

[ click on images to enlarge ]

On February 10, 2017, 18:00 UTC it is forecast to be 0.1°C or 32.1°F at the North Pole, i.e. above the temperature at which water freezes. The temperature at the North Pole is forecast to be 30°C or 54°F warmer than 1979-2000, on Feb 10, 2017, 18:00 UTC, as shown on the Climate Reanalyzer image on the right.

This high temperature is expected as a result of strong winds blowing warm air from the North Atlantic into the Arctic.

The forecast below, run on February 4, 2017, shows that winds as fast as 157 km/h or 98 mph were expected to hit the North Atlantic on February 6, 2017, 06:00 UTC, producing waves as high as 16.34 m or 53.6 ft.

A later forecast shows waves as high as 17.18 m or 54.6 ft, as illustrated by the image below.

While the actual wave height and wind speed may not turn out to be as extreme as such forecasts, the images do illustrate the horrific amounts of energy contained in these storms.

Stronger storms go hand in hand with warmer oceans. The image below shows that on February 4, 2017, at a spot off the coast of Japan marked by green circle, the ocean was 19.1°C or 34.4°F warmer than 1981-2011.

As discussed in an earlier post, the decreasing difference in temperature between the Equator and the North Pole causes changes to the jet stream, in turn causing warmer air and warmer water to get pushed from the North Atlantic into the Arctic.

The image below shows that on February 9, 2017, the water at a spot near Svalbard (marked by the green circle) was 13°C or 55.3°F, i.e. 12.1°C or 21.7°F warmer than 1981-2011.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean in turn increases the strength of feedbacks that are accelerating warming in the Arctic. One of these feedbacks is methane that is getting released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Update: The image below shows that methane levels on February 13, 2017, pm, were as high as 2727 ppb, 1½ times the global mean at the time.

[ click on image to enlarge, right image added for reference to show location of continents ] 

What caused such a high level? High methane levels (magenta color) over Baffin Bay are an indication of a lot of methane getting released north of Greenland and subsequently getting pushed along the exit current through Nares Strait (see map below). This analysis is supported by the images below, showing high methane levels north of Greenland on the morning of February the 14th (left) and the 15th (right).

The image below shows methane levels as high as 2569 ppb on February 17, 2017. This is an indication of ocean heat further destabilizing permafrost at the seafloor of the Laptev Sea, resulting in high methane concentrations where it is rising in plumes over the Laptev Sea (at 87 mb, left panel) and is spreading over a larger area (at slightly lower concentrations) at higher altitude (74 mb, right panel).

This illustrates how increased inflow of warm water from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean can cause methane to erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Methane releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean have the potential to rapidly and strongly accelerate warming in the Arctic and speed up further feedbacks, raising global temperature with catastrophic consequences in a matter of years. Altogether, these feedbacks and further warming elements could trigger a huge abrupt rise in global temperature making that extinction of many species, including humans, could be less than one decade away.

Youtube video by RT America

Without action, we are facing extinction at unprecedented scale. In many respects, we are already in the sixth mass extinction of Earth's history. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct when temperatures rose by 8°C (14°F) during the Permian-Triassic extinction, or the Great Dying, 252 million years ago.

During the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), which occurred 55 million years ago, global temperatures rose as rapidly as by 5°C in ~13 years, according to a study by Wright et al. A recent study by researchers led by Zebee concludes that the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years. Back in history, the highest carbon release rates of the past 66 million years occurred during the PETM. Yet, the maximum sustained PETM carbon release rate was less than 1.1 Pg C per year, the study by Zebee et al. found. By contrast, a recent annual carbon release rate from anthropogenic sources was ~10 Pg C (2014). The study by Zebee et al. therefore concludes that future ecosystem disruptions are likely to exceed the - by comparison - relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM.

An earlier study by researchers led by De Vos had already concluded that current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be 10,000 times higher.

from the post 2016 well above 1.5°C

As above image shows, a number of warming elements adds up to a potential warming of 10°C (18°F) from pre-industrial by the year 2026, i.e. within about nine years from now, as discussed in more detail at the extinction page.

Above image shows how a 10°C (18°F) temperature rise from preindustrial could be completed within a decade.

https://sites.google.com/
site/samcarana/climateplan

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Arctic Ocean Feedbacks
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html

• Extinction
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• How much warming have humans caused?
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/how-much-warming-have-humans-caused.html

• Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction, De Vos et al. (2015)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25159086

• Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years, by Zebee et al. (2016)
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n4/full/ngeo2681.html

• Evidence for a rapid release of carbon at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, Wright et al. (2013)
http://www.pnas.org/content/110/40/15908.full?sid=58b79a3f-8a05-485b-8051-481809c87076

• RT America Youtube video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSnrDRU6_2g

• RT America Facebook video
https://www.facebook.com/RTAmerica/videos/10154168391051366

Seafloor Methane

Methane levels over the Arctic Ocean are higher than elsewhere on Earth. As the animation below shows, methane levels were as high as 2436 parts per billion (ppb) on the afternoon of December 5, 2016, with most methane rising up from the water, in particular over the Arctic Ocean.

Rise in the atmosphere of methane on December 5, 2016 (MetOp 1 pm), from 1000 mb, i.e. close to
sea level, up to a pressure of 586 mb, which corresponds with an altitude of 3833 m.

Methane levels over the Arctic Ocean have been high for more than a month. The video below, with a soundtrack by Daniel Kieve, shows methane levels from October 26, 2016 to November 25, 2016.

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These high methane levels come at a time when there's hardly any sunlight reaching the Arctic, which pretty much rules out the possibility that algae blooms or other biological sources were causing these high methane levels. Instead, these high methane levels appear to be the result of methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, caused by warming water of the oceans.

Indeed, large quantities of methane appear to be erupting from seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and, as this methane rises in the atmosphere, it moves closer to the Equator, resulting in higher methane levels there as well. Above image further illustrates that seafloor methane appears to be pushing up mean global methane level at higher altitudes.

The image below shows the temperature rise of the oceans. Temperatures are rising particularly rapidly on the Northern Hemisphere.

[ Ocean warming, from earlier post ]

The huge amounts of energy entering the oceans translate into higher temperatures of the water and of the air over the water, as well as higher waves and stronger winds. Much of that heat is carried by the Coriolis force along the Gulf Stream from the coast of North America via the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean.

As the image on the right shows, sea surface temperatures near Svalbard (green circle) were as high as 14.1°C / 57.3°F on December 6, 2016, 12.1°C / 21.7°F warmer than in 1981-2011.

The rise in ocean heat is threatening to cause ever larger eruptions of methane from the seafloor.

As described at the Extinction page, methane eruptions from the seafloor could well cause a 1.1°C temperature rise over the next ten years, and in combination with other elements, this is threatening to cause global temperature to rise 10°C or 18°F by 2026.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

• A pdf of the extinction page and an introduction to the Climate Plan can be downloaded from
https://sites.google.com/site/samcarana/climateplan/Climate-Plan-by-Sam-Carana.pdf?attredirects=0&d=1

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Methane
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/methane.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Old Mother Nature, by Daniel Kieve
https://soundcloud.com/danielkieve/old-mother-nature

Why America should lead on climate

There are many reasons why America should take the lead in action on climate change.

It's fair and in everyone's interest that America takes the lead

It's fair that those who pollute most, do most to clean things up. America's current and historic emissions are huge, while a lot of what has been produced elsewhere is also consumed in America. Moreover, it's in everyone's interest if America takes the lead. That is confirmed by studies such as this one, showing that there are no technical or economic barriers against cleaning things up. Doing so has many benefits, including job and investment opportunities, and scope for exports. In order for American industries, such as car manufacture, to remain competitive with products from overseas, they must clean up their act. In addition, there are many health and the environmental benefits, while shifting to clean energy will remove perceived needs for America to send military forces across the world to protect global supply lines of fossil fuel.

Legal obligations to act

There are also legal obligations for America to act. Back in 2007, the Supreme Court ruled in Mass. v. EPA that the EPA must act on any air pollutant that endangers public health or welfare. The EPA subsequently found this to be the case for six greenhouse gases and took action, including by issuing plans to limit carbon emissions from power plants. More recently, the United States Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit ruled in favor of the EPA plans.

Furthermore, as Michael Burger points out, Section 115 of the Clean Air Act also authorizes the EPA to act on emissions that contribute to air pollution that endangers public health or welfare in other countries, the more so where the other countries provide the U.S. with reciprocal protections. At the Paris Agreement, such reciprocity was affirmed by some 190 nations (accounting for over 93% of current GHG emissions) pledging to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

In other words, no new laws are needed and action can and should be taken now, as this blog has pointed out for years, e.g. in this 2014 post that featured the image below.



The threat of methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean seafloor calls for urgent action

This blog has repeatedly pointed at another reason why especially America must act, and must do so rapidly, comprehensively and effectively. In October 2015, oceans reached record high temperatures, especially on the Northern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the image below.

Northern Hemisphere October ocean temperatures based on NOAA 1880-2015 data - plot area goes from 1900 to 2050 and from -1 to 4 degrees Celsius above baseline, i.e. compared to the period 1901-2000, the 20th century average.

Above image features a trendline showing that oceans on the Northern Hemisphere could, by the year 2043, be 4°C or 7.2°F warmer than the 20th century average. Increasingly, methane levels over the Arctic Ocean are showing strong increases from October onward, as huge amounts of ocean heat are reaching the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean from that month onward.

North America contributes strongly to accelerating warming of the Arctic Ocean. The Coriolis Effect makes that high levels of emissions originating from North America are extending over the Atlantic Ocean, and are warming up waters off the east coast of North America, as illustrated by the image below.

Top left: CO2 414 ppb green circle, up to 433 ppm in New Jersey. Top right: CO 274 ppb green circle, up to 890 ppb in New Jersey. Bottom left: Jet Stream 250 hPa. Bottom right: Sea surface temperature anomaly 8.5°C/15.3°F green circle.

2015 maximum nightly sea surface temperature anomaly

Carbon dioxide emissions are important, but also relevant are other emissions such as carbon monoxide that depletes hydroxyl, making it harder for methane to be oxidized.

As emissions keep rising, the Gulf Stream will carry ever warmer water into the Arctic Ocean, resulting in greater melting of the sea ice and associated albedo changes that in turn accelerate warming in the Arctic.

Surface temperature anomaly Jan 21, 2015 - Jan 20, 2016
 

This is further illustrated by the images on the right. The top image shows 2015 maximum nightly sea surface temperature anomalies, with anomalies of 5°C off the North American east coast as well as in the Arctic Ocean.

The second image on the right illustrate the extent at which warming in the Arctic Ocean is accelerating, compared to the rest of the world. The image also shows the cold freshwater lid over the North Atlantic.

Temperature anomaly forecast for January 28, 2016
 

As the temperature difference between the Arctic and the equator decreases, the jet stream gets more elongated, at times moving all across the Arctic Ocean. This is one of a multitude of feedbacks that contribute to accelerating warming of the Arctic Ocean. The result is illustrated by the third image on the right, showing strong warming over most of the Arctic Ocean, while at the same time some places on land at higher latitudes north are experiencing extremely cold conditions.

descending cold freshwater on January 25, 2016

Another one of such feedbacks is that warmer water off the coast of North America will result in stronger winds moving over the North Atlantic toward the Arctic Ocean. This can also speed up ocean currents, so it can result in more heat being carried toward the Arctic Ocean both in the atmosphere and the water.

Meltwater from glaciers and sea ice can descend along the edges of Greenland into the North Atlantic, forming a cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic, where it accumulates at the surface over the years, as illustrated by the image on the right that points at a -4°C or -7.1°F anomaly compared to 1981-2011.

In addition, precipitation (rain, snow, hail, fog, etc.) can further contribute to expansion of this cold
freshwater lid over the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the images on the right.

cold freshwater lid over the North Atlantic

While this cold freshwater may constitute a barrier that slows the flow of warm water toward the Arctic Ocean at the surface, the danger is that it prevents heat transfer to the atmosphere from warm water flowing below the sea surface, with the net result of more heat arriving in the Arctic Ocean.

Furthermore, if this cold freshwater lid also prevents water from sinking deeper in the North Atlantic, this may also contribute to more warm water arriving in the Arctic ocean, as illustrated by the bottom image on the right.

Such feedbacks can dramatically accelerate warming of Arctic Ocean, resulting in heat destabilizing sediments that can contain huge amounts of methane.

In conclusion, America must take the lead in action on climate change. It's fair to do so, it will benefit everyone, there are legal obligations to do so and there is great urgency to act in the light of looming methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan. 

In October 2015, oceans reached record high temperatures, especially on the Northern Hemisphere. The image features a...
Posted by Sam Carana on Saturday, January 23, 2016

Ocean Heat Invades Arctic Ocean

[ click on image to enlarge ]

NOAA analysis shows that, on land, it now is about 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than the 20th century average.

July 2015 was the warmest month ever recorded for the globe. The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for July was the all-time highest monthly temperature in the 1880-2015 record – it was 16.61°C (61.86°F), i.e. 0.81°C (1.46°F) above the 20th century average. 

Sea surfaces were very warm as well, in particular the North Pacific, which on August 22, 2015, was exactly 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than it was compared to the period from 1971 to 2000 (see Climate Reanalyzer image right).

The July globally-averaged sea surface temperature was the highest temperature for any month in the 1880-2015 record. In July 2015, the sea surface on the Northern Hemisphere was 0.87°C (1.57°F) warmer than it was in the 20th century, as illustrated by the NOAA graph below. 

As the image below shows, the July data for sea surface temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere contain a trendline pointing at a rise of 2°C (3.6°F) before the year 2030. In other words, if this trend continues, the sea surface will be 2°C (3.6°F) warmer in less than 15 years time from now.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Such a temperature rise would be a catastrophe, as there are huge amounts of methane contained in the form of hydrates and free gas in sediments under the Arctic Ocean seafloor. A relatively small temperature rise of part of these sediments could cause a huge abrupt methane eruption, which could in turn trigger further eruptions of methane.

As illustrated by the image below, high methane levels are already showing up over the Arctic.

Methane levels as high as 2565 parts per billion were recorded on August 18, 2015

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Loss of Arctic sea ice could speed up such a development. The image on the right shows that, on August 20, 2015, Arctic sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of the year except for the years 2007, 2011 and 2012.

The situation today is even worse than one might conclude when looking at sea ice extent alone. Thick sea ice is virtually absent compared to the situation in the year 2012 around this time of year, as illustrated by the image below that compares sea ice thickness on August 20, 2012 (left) with August 20, 2015 (right).

The comparison below further illustrates this. The left panel shows how thick sea ice is anchored to the north-east tip of Greenland on July 7, 2015. The right panel shows how, on August 20, 2015, this ice has been fractured and shattered into pieces. All this ice looks set to soon flow down Fram Strait and melt away in ever warmer water.

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies on August 21, 2015.

On the image below, the green circle at the top of each globe indicates a location where sea surface temperature was 17°C (62.6°F) on August 21, 2015, an anomaly of 11.9°C (21.4°F). This is where warm water is entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean. At the same time, warm water is entering the Arctic ocean through the Bering Strait from the Pacific Ocean.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

There still are a few weeks to go before sea ice can be expected to reach its minimum, at around half September 2015, while sea currents will continue to carry warmer water into the Arctic Ocean for months to come. More open water increases the chance that storms will develop that will push the last remnants of the sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one, while storms can also mix warm surface waters all the way down to the seafloor, as discussed in this earlier post.

Typhoons increase this danger. The Climate Reanalyzer image below shows typhoons in the Pacific.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Typhoons developing in the Pacific Ocean are getting stronger as the oceans warm. One of the typhoons visible on above map, Typhoon Goni, has just claimed ten lives in the Philippines.

Stronger typhoons come with an increased chance that they will bring strong winds and warm air and water into the Arctic.

Typhoon Goni and the larger Typhoon Atsani are both moving north and look set to move into the direction of the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the forecast for the situation on August 26, 2015, on the right.

Atsani was the twelfth typhoon and sixth super typhoon of the year in the western North Pacific—numbers that meteorologists say put the season on a record-breaking track. The NASA image below gives an idea of the size of Typhoon Atsani.

[ Typhoon Atsani - NASA image ]

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed in the Climate Plan.

July data for sea surface temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere contain a trendline pointing at a rise of 2°C...
Posted by Sam Carana on Friday, August 21, 2015

Disappearance Of Thick Arctic Sea Ice

[ view full image at facebook ]

Arctic sea ice is in a horrible state. On August 16, 2015, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.786 million square km, the smallest extent on record for this time of year except for the years 2007, 2011 and 2012, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The situation today is even worse than one might conclude when looking at sea ice extent alone. Thick sea ice is virtually absent compared to the situation in the year 2012 around this time of year, as illustrated by the image below comparing sea ice thickness on August 16, 2012 (left) with August 16, 2015 (right).

The ice used to be over 4 m thick, or over 13 ft thick, north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago. This thick multi-year ice has been a feature of the Arctic sea ice for over 100,000 years. It used to be there all year long, unlike the thinner ice that could melt away entirely during the melting season.

The disappearance of this thick multi-year ice is a major development. Why? Until now, the thicker multi-year sea ice used to survive the melting season, giving the sea ice strength for the next year, by acting as a buffer to absorb heat that would otherwise melt away the thinner ice. Without multi-year sea ice, the Arctic will be in a bad shape in coming years, and huge amounts of heat that would otherwise go into melting the ice will instead be warming up the Arctic Ocean, further accelerating warming of its waters.

Absence of thick sea ice makes it more prone to collapse, and this raises the question whether the sea ice could collapse soon, even this year. Sea ice works like a mirror. Without sea ice, sunlight that was previously reflected back into space, will instead be absorbed by the Arctic. Albedo changes in the Arctic alone could more than double the net radiative forcing resulting from the emissions caused by all people of the world, as calculated by Prof. Peter Wadhams back in 2012.

Furthermore, there is a danger that loss of the sea ice will weaken the currents that currently cool the bottom of the sea, where huge amounts of methane may be present in the form of free gas or hydrates in sediments. This danger is illustrated by the image below by Reg Morrison, from an earlier post.

Absence of sea ice also goes hand in hand with opportunities for storms to develop over the Arctic Ocean. Such storms could push the remaining sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean. Such storms could also mix surface heat all the way down to the seafloor, where methane could be contained in sediments.

As described in an earlier post, sea surface anomalies of over 5 degrees Celsius were recorded in August 2007 (NOAA image right). Strong polynya activity caused more summertime open water in the Laptev Sea, in turn causing more vertical mixing of the water column during storms in late 2007, as described in this study, and bottom water temperatures on the mid-shelf increased by more than 3 degrees Celsius compared to the long-term mean.

Indeed, the danger is that heat will warm up sediments under the sea, containing methane in hydrates and as free gas, causing large amounts of this methane to escape rather abruptly into the atmosphere.

The image on the right, from a study by Hovland et al., shows that hydrates can exist at the end of conduits in the sediment, formed when methane did escape from such hydrates in the past.

Heat can travel down such conduits relatively fast, warming up the hydrates and destabilizing them in the process, which can result in huge abrupt releases of methane.

Since waters can be very shallow in the Arctic, much of the methane can then rise up through these waters without getting oxidized. As the methane causes further warming in the atmosphere, this will contribute to the danger of even further methane escaping, further accelerating local warming, in a vicious cycle that can lead to catastrophic conditions well beyond the Arctic. For additional feedbacks in the Arctic, see the feedbacks page. 

At the same time, ocean heat is at a record high and there's an El Niño that's still gaining strength. This ocean heat is likely to reach the Arctic Ocean in full strength by October 2015, at a time when sea ice may still be at its minimum. The image below shows sea surface temperatures on August 16, 2015 (left) and anomalies (right).

How warm is the water entering the Arctic Ocean? Merely looking at sea surface temperatures could make one overlook the full extent of the predicament we are in. Ocean heat traveling underneath the sea surface can be even warmer than temperatures showing up at the surface. This is illustrated by the image below indicating that on August 16, 2015, warm water emerged at the sea surface near Svalbard with temperatures as high as 14.9°C or 58.7°F, a 9.5°C or 17.1°F anomaly.

There still is about a month to go before sea ice can be expected to reach its minimum, at around half September 2015, while sea currents will continue to carry warmer water into the Arctic Ocean for months to come.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed in the Climate Plan. 

Thick sea ice is virtually absent compared to the situation in the year 2012 around this time of year, as illustrated by...
Posted by Sam Carana on Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Gulf Stream brings ever warmer water into Arctic Ocean

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic as at June 9, 2015.

The image below shows the Arctic from a 180° rotated angle, while also showing the high sea surface temperature anomalies that are so prominent in the North Pacific (note also that the scale of sea surface temperature anomalies differs).



One may wonder why sea surface temperature anomalies below zero are visible in the North Atlantic, given that ocean heat is rising rapidly. As the IPCC said in AR5, more than 60% of the net energy increase in the climate system is stored in the upper ocean (0–700 m) during the relatively well-sampled 40-year period from 1971 to 2010, and about 30% is stored in the ocean below 700 m.

Global heat content at 0-2000 m is rising even faster than at 0-700 m 

The image below further pictures the situation as at June 9, 2015, with large blue and purple areas showing in the North Atlantic where meltwater from the Arctic has spread over time.



Indeed, the accumulation of meltwater over time has created a huge area with relatively cold water that tends to float at the surface, rather than sink, as the meltwater's salt content is very low.

In other words, the ocean underneath the meltwater at the sea surface is much warmer than the temperatures shown on above images. This can be illustrated by the situation near Svalbard. The image below shows the depth of Barents Sea, which is relatively shallow around Svalbard,

As the image shows, cold meltwater with low salt content floats around Svalbard where the water is most shallow. A 'polar front' separates cold and warm water, following the borders of the area where the seafloor is high. Warm, salty water is carried by the Gulf Stream from the (much deeper) Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean. This warm water collides with cold water east of Svalbard where the seafloor rises steeply, making this warm water come to the surface. 

Warm water from the Atlantic also comes to the surface west of Svalbard, where warm and cold water are similarly separated by the height of the seafloor. 

The image below shows that on June 8, 2015, sea surface temperatures as high as 11.4°C (52.52°F) were recorded to the south-east of Svalbard (a 9.8°C or 17.64°F anomaly), while sea surface temperatures as high as 7.4°C (45.32°F) were recorded to the west of Svalbard (a 3.5°C or 6.3°F anomaly). 

Sea surface temperatures (top) and sea surface temperature anomalies (bottom) on June 8, 2015.

The image below shows the situation on June 21, 2015, when sea surface temperatures as high as 12.5°C (54.5°F) were recorded to the south-east of Svalbard (a 10.2°C or 18.4°F anomaly), while sea surface temperatures as high as 8.5°C (47.3°F) were recorded to the west of Svalbard (a 3.7°C or 6.7°F anomaly) and as high as 7.3°C (45.1°F) further west of Svalbard (a 3.7°C or 6.7°F anomaly).

Sea surface temperatures (top) and sea surface temperature anomalies (bottom) on June 21, 2015.

These spots where warm water comes to the surface give an indication of how high temperatures of the water are below the surface. As more than 90% of the extra heat caused by people's emissions continues to go into oceans, ever warmer water will be carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean, with the danger that this will warm up sediments under the Arctic Ocean seafloor, triggering huge methane eruptions with gigantic warming potential.

The above images picture the situation as at June 8 and June 21, 2015, when summer on the Northern Hemisphere had just started. In other words, temperatures will rise over the next few months. To get an idea of what can be expected, the image below shows the situation as at September 1, 2014, when sea surface temperatures near Svalbard were as high as 17.5°C (or 63.5°F), an anomaly of 11.9°C (or 21.42°F)

Sea surface temperatures (top) and sea surface temperature anomalies (bottom) on September 1, 2014.

On the combination image below, the image on the left shows large areas (red circles) where warmer water is visible through the sea ice, indicating the presence of even warmer water at greater depth in the Arctic Ocean. The image on the right (from an earlier post) roughly shows how ocean heat can be carried by the Gulf Stream from the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of North America into the Arctic Ocean, diving under the sea ice somewhere between Greenland and Svalbard.

Then, there is also the impact of the heat wave in Russia warming up the Arctic Ocean, as indicated by the red circle on the image below.

The image below shows May Northern Hemisphere ocean temperature anomalies with respect to the period 1901-2000, based on NOAA data and with a polynomial trendline added.

ACCELERATED WARMING IN ARCTIC CAUSING MORE CIRRUS CLOUDS As oceans warm, the atmosphere can be expected to carry more water vapor. This conclusion is supported by studies such as this one. With more water vapor in the atmosphere, storms can be expected to strike with greater intensity. This conclusion is supported by studies such as this one. This situation gets worse as weather gets more extreme. What makes things even worse is that, as the Gulf Stream keeps bringing ever warmer water into the Arctic Ocean, loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and more open water will be the result. More open water means more opportunity for storms to develop and for water to evaporate into the atmosphere. The combination of more open water, more extreme weather, and more water vapor in the atmosphere leads to ever more severe storms that can come with destructive winds and that can suddenly unleash massive amounts of precipitation. Studies such as this one warn that plumes above the anvils of severe storms can bring water vapor up into the stratosphere, contributing to the formation of cirrus clouds that block a lot of heat that would otherwise be radiated away, from Earth into space. More cirrus clouds thus is another self-reinforcing feedback loop of accelerated warming in the Arctic. As the Gulf Stream keeps bringing ever warmer water into the Arctic Ocean, such feedbacks will further speed up warming, as discussed at the feedbacks page. Are there geoengineering methods to reduce cirrus clouds? Seeding of high altitude clouds with ice may be able to do this, resulting in more longwave radiation escaping into space, as discussed in this study. The text in this box was also posted at the Geoengineering group at facebook

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan. 

on June 8, 2015, sea surface temperatures as high as 11.4°C (52.52°F) were recorded to the south-east of Svalbard (a 9.8...
Posted by Sam Carana on Thursday, June 11, 2015