Thursday, December 7, 2023

Climate change terror

The Dubai’s COP-out denial conference
- by Andrew Glikson -

The issue, betrayed, is nothing more and nothing less than the future of a multitude of species on Earth, including Homo sapiens.

Global temperature (relative to 1880-1920 mean for each month) for the 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24
El Ninos. The impact of El Nino on global temperature usually peaks early in the year (El Nino Peak
Year) following the year in which the El Nino originated. Credit: James Hansen et al. (Oct. 2023)

Figure 1. Comparative El-Nino trends 1997, 1998, 2015, 2016, 2023 relative to 1880-1920.

As confirmed by the acceleration of climate extremes, consistent with the prediction by Wallace Broecker, the authoritative climate scientist, global climate change is racing beyond tipping points (Figure 1), yet the evidence continues to be denied, including in the recent COP-28 climate conference, where climate scientists are almost nowhere to be seen.

Figure 2a. Based on NOAA’s temperature data Earth’s temperature rose by an average of 0.08° C per decade since 1880; Since 1981 the warming rate is 0.18° C per decade. The 2022 surface temperature was 0.86 °C warmer than the 20th-century average of 13.9 °C and 1.06 ˚C warmer than the pre-industrial period (1880-1900). The 10 warmest years in the historical record have all occurred since 2010.

As temperatures rise (Figure 2a), fires engulf large tracts of land, storms intensity and sea levels rise (Figure 2b), the living Earth is entering a critical stage. Having ignored the existential threat of climate change, extreme nationalism and fascism ─ the ideology of death ─ spill rivers of blood in many parts of the world.

Figure 2b. Accelerated sea level rise after Church and White, 2011 and University of Hawaii (Fast Delivery). Values in millimetres compared to the 1993-2008 average. NOAA. University of Hawaii Sea Level Centre

While the powers that be ─ politicians, CEOs, top-bureaucrats, economists and their media mouthpieces ─ proceed to propagate dangerous lies, such as the denial of climate change at the heart of the Dubai COP-28 conference.

A principal lie is that, in itself, the application of clean technologies ─ solar, wind, tide, hydrogen, may be sufficient to arrest global warming. Likewise, ignoring the export of fossil fuels in national carbon inventories, despite the dissemination of greenhouse gas emissions world-wide.

Major climate untruths propagated by governments, fossil fuel corporations and their subservient media include proposed limits on domestic emissions which are meaningless to the arrest of global warming since with continuing mining, export and combustion of fossil fuels, greenhouse gases disperse through the atmosphere regardless of where the fossil fuel is mined or burnt.

With CO₂ level reaching 418.51 ppm at a rate of ~2.5 ppm/year and methane CH₄ level reaching 1917.1 ppb at a rate of near-12 ppb per year, greenhouse gas rises are exceeding any in recent geological history, representing the most severe atmospheric crisis since the asteroid impact which killed the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. Oblivious to the physical laws on which climate science is based and to the time factor of the impending climate crisis, setting artificial targets such as “1.5°C by 2030” or “2°C by 2050”, the powers-to-be may not be aware of what life on planet Earth is facing.

Australia is the world’s third biggest exporter and fifth biggest miner of fossil fuels by CO₂ potential. hydrocarbon exports, following Russia and Saudi Arabia. “The government denies responsibility for emissions created by the vast amounts of coal and gas Australia exports overseas as one of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers, and has flatly ruled out any discussion on banning new fossil fuel projects” (McNeill, 2022).

While ongoing combustion of fossil fuels is raising greenhouse gas concentration at a rate unprecedented in the geological record, global heating being a self-amplifying process, the utilization of clean energy: solar, wind, hydropower and thermal power cannot by itself stem global warming, now rising above 420 ppm CO₂, well above the 180-280 ppm range of the preceding glacial-interglacial cycles. Such a high CO₂ level compared to that which existed in the Miocene before 5.3 million years ago when mean global temperature was about ~18.4°C, rising at a rate to which much of the fauna and flora can hardly adjust.

Nowadays as bombs keep falling, heads of governments jet around the world genuflecting to each other, signing arms deals, uttering honey words, while the corporate media discusses their official dinner menus, no solutions are reached for the worsening humanitarian crises nor the future on an uninhabitable Earth.

A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist

Andrew Glikson
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene