The April 2024 temperature was 1.32°C higher than 1951-1980, as illustrated by the above image, created with NASA content. Local anomalies are as high as 6.2°C.
[ click on images to enlarge ] |
[ from earlier post ] |
[ from earlier post ] |
[ click on images to enlarge ] |
[ from Moistening Atmosphere ] |
Furthermore, developments such as rising emissions from industry, transport, land use, forest fires and waste fires, ocean acidification and reductions in sulfur emissions over the past few years all contribute to further acceleration of the temperature rise.
The above image shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 21.5°C on May 14, 2024. High North Atlantic sea surface temperatures spell bad news for the Arctic, as much ocean heat gets pushed toward the Arctic from the North Atlantic. North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are now getting pushed up strongly from their annual minimum, in line with seasonal changes. Ominously, a peak of 25.4°C was reached in August 2023, i.e. almost 4°C higher than the current temperature. The question is how high the North Atlantic temperature will reach this year.
One tipping point that threatens to get crossed is loss of Arctic sea ice. Loss of Arctic sea ice comes with albedo change, which constitutes a huge self-reinforcing feedback loop, i.e. the more sea ice disappears, the more sunlight gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, further accelerating sea ice melting, while less sunlight gets reflected back into space.
[ Albedo change, from the Albedo page ] |
As long as air temperatures over the Arctic are below freezing, sea ice can persist at the surface, maintaining sea ice extent, which may give the false impression that sea ice was healthy, whereas in fact sea ice has steadily been declining in thickness, as illustrated by the image below, created with Danish Meteorological Institute content, that shows that Arctic sea ice recently reached its lowest annual maximum on record, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one.
The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat up an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. Loss of the latent heat buffer therefore constitutes a tipping point, i.e. once crossed, the Arctic Ocean will heat up at an accelerating pace.
Seafloor methane constitutes a second tipping point. When methane escapes from hydrates that get destabilized by rising temperatures, the methane will expand to 160 times its previous volume and enter the atmosphere with force. Without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat could cause large-scale destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.
[ from earlier post ] |
[ image from the Extinction page ] |
Self-amplifying feedbacks and developments as discussed above, as well as crossing of these two tipping points, could all contribute to cause a temperature rise of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C.
Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.
Links
• NASA - datasets and images
https://data.giss.nasa.gov
https://climatereanalyzer.org
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
• NOAA - National Centers for Environment Information
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov
• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center / National Centers for Environmental Prediction
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html
• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html
• Arctic sea ice set for steep decline
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html
• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?
• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html