President Obama, why don't you use your powers?

President Obama, why don't you use your powers to more effectively reduce the danger of catastrophic climate change?

As an example, you could direct the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to impose fees on sales of gasoline. The revenues of such fees could then be earmarked to fund ways to make the use of genuinely clean energy more attractive.

Delegation

The duty to act on climate change can delegated to states, provided that sufficient progress is made to combat climate change. States can thus to a large extent decide what action and what mix of policies they feel will work best where. Where such progress is lacking, federal authority can resume control, impose fees in the respective state and decide to direct (part of) revenues to federal programs, such as construction of high speed rail tracks that cross state borders, waste management in national parks, federal research grants into ways to combat climate change, etc.

State administrators can similarly decide to delegate their authority to local levels, allowing each local council to implement feebates believed to work best in the respective area. And similarly, state administrators can resume control in case of a lack of progress in a specific area, and direct the revenues to state programs.

Further action

Further action will be needed to reduce the danger of catastrophic climate change, which calls for a comprehensive climate plan such as described at http://climateplan.blogspot.com

Massive Methane Concentrations over the Laptev Sea

High methane concentrations (2351 ppb at 19,819 ft altitude) are recorded on February 21, 2014. Analysis shows that these concentrations are the result of massive methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

The bottom-left inset on above image shows methane readings on February 21st, 2014, p.m. only and only for 7 layers with altitudes from 469 mb to 586 mb. At 469 mb (19,819 ft), a reading of 2351 ppb was recorded, i.e. 31% higher than the highest mean that day (which was 1796 ppb at 586 mb).

Much of the methane showing up over Asia on the main image does not show up at altitudes where 2300+ ppb levels were recorded that day, indicating that these high readings were indeed caused by releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

The methane may have been released from areas closer to the North Pole. The methane may have traveled underneath the sea ice and entered the atmosphere over the Laptev Sea where the sea ice is thin or fractured enough to allow the methane to pass through the ice.

The Naval Research Laboratory image below shows the sea ice thickness as at February 21st, 2014.

On the other hand, the sea ice is not much thinner at the Laptev Sea, compared to areas closer to the North Pole, so the methane may well have originated from the Laptev Sea, which could indicate further destabilization of methane hydrates in the area, which is very worrying given the large quantities of methane estimated to be contained in sediments there in the form of free gas and hydrates. In addition, the Laptev Sea is very shallow, resulting in much of the releases from the seafloor there entering the atmosphere without getting decomposed by microbes in the water.

The situation may be even worse than this, as no methane data have shown up for the past few days at the NOAA website. We'll keep monitoring the situation and add updates later.

Update 1.: The image below shows the situation on February 22nd, 2014, when a peak reading of 2383 ppb was recorded (at 469 mb, or 19,819 ft altitude). This peak reading is about ⅓ higher than the highest mean that day (which was 1795 ppb at 586 mb).

Above image shows that the highest concentrations have moved somewhat closer to the North Pole along the faultline crossing the Arctic Ocean. Also, very high methane concentrations are showing up again over Baffin Bay.

This supports this post's earlier conclusion, i.e. that methane hydrate destabilization is taking place closer to the North Pole and that the methane enters the atmosphere where the sea ice is sufficiently thin or fractured to allow the methane to pass through.

The image below shows what appears to have set off this destablization, i.e. an earthquake with a magnitude of 5 on the Richter Scale in the Greenland Sea on February 20th, 2014.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

The image below shows the massive methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean over February 21st and 22nd.

Update 2.: The image below shows methane readings as at February 23rd, 2014.

The image indicates that methane is being released over a large distance along the faultline crossing the Arctic Ocean. Note that the image only shows the methane that has entered the atmosphere, not the methane underneath the sea ice. Much methane may also have been released closer to Greenland along the faultline, but couldn't penetrate the sea ice at the location where it was released and therefore moved inderneath the sea ice with currents along the edges of Greenland, to enter the atmosphere where the sea ice was sufficiently thin or fractured in Baffin Bay, as well as in Hudson Bay and also along the east coast of Greenland (opposite Iceland).

The image below shows the combined methane concentrations for February 21-23, 2014, with peak readings added for each day.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Note that, compared to the above image, the top image at "The Biggest Story of 2013" shows more methane and also shows a higher peak (2399 ppb on December 29th, 2013). So, the situation may look less threatening now, but the story remains the same, with further indications that much of the methane showing up over Baffin Bay, over Hudson Bay, and over Fram Strait (all the way down to the southern tip of Greenland) may actually originate from areas along the Gakkel Ridge fault line. The releases that started in full back in early October 2013 are still continuing, and the situation again indicates that large releases can be triggered by earthquakes.

What may have saved the day is a sudden drop in sea surface temperature anomalies along the faultline that crosses the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the Climate Reanalyzer image below that compares the situation on February 18 (left) with the situation on February 24 (right). The image also shows the huge sea surface temperature anomalies off the east coast of North America. Much of this warm water will be carried along with the Gulf Stream and reach the Arctic Ocean later this year.

The drop in sea surface temperature along the faultline looks to have been caused by a drop in surface temperature anomalies, as illustrated by the map of February 25th, 2014 (left on the image below). The situation may not last long, though, as illustrated by the forecast for February 27th, 2014 (on the right).

Also note that very low temperature are forecast for February 27th all along the east coast of North America. As the image below shows, people in some parts of Greenland may enjoy the same temperatures as people in the deep south of the United States on Febuary 27th, 2014.

As illustrated by above image, the weather is getting more extreme and there is a clear pattern, i.e. the Arctic has been warmer than it used to be and temperatures in the Arctic are rising several times faster than global temperatures. This decreases the temperature difference beteen the areas to the north and to the south of the Jet Stream, which in turn decreases the speed at which the Jet Stream circumnavigates the globe, resulting in the Jet Stream becoming more wavier and increasing opportunities for cold air to descend from the Arctic and for warm air to enter the Arctic. In short, the situation in the Arctic is getting worse, increasing the danger of large methane releases from the Arctic seafloor. This spells bad news for the future and calls for comprehensive and effective action as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.

With business as usual life on earth is largely doomed

by John Davies

There is a very grave crisis in the Arctic which might only be resolved if the world uses geo-engineering to cool the Arctic and there are drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

Failing that most life on earth is doomed including humanity with devastating climate catastrophe starting no later than 2015 and a runaway Greenhouse Event starting in 2014.

I am sure that with an immense effort starting now humanity can be saved.

I am trying to obtain a meeting of the All Party Parliamentary Committee on Climate Change to discuss the desperate situation in the Arctic and the prognosis that with business as usual life on earth is largely doomed and also the steps humanity must take to save the global climate in April.

[ to be continued ]

High methane levels over the Arctic Ocean on February 17, 2014

Above image shows IASI methane readings over the last day or so, when levels as high as 2223 ppb were recorded.

Where does the methane come from?

On above image, methane shows up prominently along the faultline that crosses the Arctic Ocean from the northern tip of Greenland to the Laptev Sea. This indicates that the methane originated from the depths of the Arctic Ocean, where sediments contain large amounts of methane in the form of free gas and hydrates, which have become destabilized.

High methane concentrations have persistently shown up over the Arctic Ocean since October 1, 2013. On January 19, 2014, levels as high as 2363 ppb were recorded over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.

[ from earlier post, click on image to enlarge ]

Below is a comparison of methane readings for the week from February 9 to 16, 2014, compared to the same period in 2013.

[ from earlier post, click on image to enlarge ]

The above comparison shows that there is a lot of methane over the Arctic Ocean that wasn't there last year. 

Furthermore, high methane readings show up where currents move the sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean, in areas such as Baffin Bay. This indicates that methane that is released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean appears to be moving underneath the ice along with exit currents and entering the atmosphere where the sea ice is fractured or thin enough to allow the methane to pass through. 

Also note that more orange areas show up on the southern hemisphere in 2014, indicating that more methane from the northern hemisphere is now spreading south beyond the equator. This in addition to indications that more methane is rising and building up at higher altitudes, as discussed in an earlier post.

Causes

What made these high releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean persist for so long? At this time of year, one might have thought that the water in the Arctic Ocean would be much colder than it was, say, on October 1, 2013.

Actually, as the combination image below shows, sea surface temperatures have not fallen much at the center of the Arctic Ocean between early October, 2013 (left) and February 17, 2014 (right). In the area where these high methane concentrations occured, sea surface temperatures have remained the same, at about zero degrees Celsius.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

The above comparison image shows that, while surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean may have fallen strongly with the change of seasons, surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean have changed only little.

In this case of course, what matters more than surface temperatures are water temperatures at greater depth. Yet, even here temperatures in the Arctic Ocean will have decreased only slightly (if at all) compared to early October 2013, since the Gulf Stream has continued to push warmer water into the Arctic, i.e. water warmer than the water in the Arctic Ocean, so the heating impact of the Gulf Stream continues. Also, sea surface temperature anomalies along the path of the Gulf Stream continue to be anomalously high, as the image below shows.

The situation looks even more grim on the Climate Reanalyzer image below, showing sea surface temperature anomalies that are far more profound in the Arctic Ocean.

Note also that, as the sea ice extent increased, there have been less opportunities for the heat to evaporate on the surface and for heat to be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the air.

Finally, what matters a lot is salinity. The combination image below compares salinity levels between October 1, 2013 (left), and February 17, 2014 (right).

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Salinity levels were low on October 1, 2013, as a lot of ice and snow had melted in the northern summer and rivers had carried a lot of fresh water into the Arctic Ocean. After October 1, 2013, little or no melting took place, yet the Gulf Stream continued to carry waters with higher salt levels from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean.

Annual mean sea surface salinity

Seawater typically has a salinity level of over 3%; it freezes and melts at about −2°C (28°F). Where more saline water from the Atlantic Ocean flows into the Arctic Ocean, the water in the Arctic Ocean becomes more saline. The freezing and melting point of fresh water (i.e. zero salinity) is 0°C (or 32°F). More salinity makes frozen water more prone to melting, i.e. at temperatures lower than 0°C, or as low as −2°C.

As the salinity levels of the water on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean increased, the ice that had until then held the methane captive in hydrates on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean started to melt. Indeed, the areas in the Arctic Ocean where the high methane releases occurred on January 14, 2014 (top image) show several practical salinity units (psu) increase since October 1, 2013.

Higher salinity levels are showing up closer to the faultline that runs through the Arctic Ocean from the top of Greenland to the Laptev Sea.

Extreme weather strikes around the globe - update

As the weather gets more extreme, disaster strikes around the globe. The Guardian reports three people killed as storms continue to batter southern UK. The Vancouver Sun reports that a U.S. Northeast snowstorm kills 25. And the Sacramento Bee reports Six dead and 1,000 injured in fresh Japan snow storm.

What is the story behind these extreme weather events? The image below tells the story. The Arctic has been much warmer than it used to be, due to numerous feedbacks that accelerate warming in the Arctic. This reduces the temperature differential between the Arctic and lower latitudes, which changes the Jet Stream and Polar Vortex, in turn making the weather at many places ever more extreme.

 earlier forecasts by cci-reanalyzer.org

Above image illustrates the situation, showing an Arctic Ocean that is warmer than the higher latitudes of the Asian and North American continents.

Arctic sea ice has meanwhile reached record lows, as illustrated by the image below.

The situation can be expected to get even worse. The image below shows sea ice extent, as measured by the NSIDC, which is one day ahead compared to above image.

Below, two regular contributors to the Arctic-news blog comment on the situation.

Extreme weather strikes around the globe

Editorial note: this post has meanwhile been updated as Extreme weather strikes around the globe update.

As the weather gets more extreme, disaster strikes around the globe.

Here's a snapsnot from today's news. In London, the BBC reports, flooded homes along the River Thames are being evacuated and thousands more are at risk. In Japan, reports Reuters, eleven people died, more than a thousand were injured and tens of thousands lost power when the worst snowstorm in decades hit Tokyo and areas around the Japanese capital before heading north to blanket the tsunami-hit Pacific coast. Many countries in the Middle East were hit by snow. The BBC reports that heavy snow in northern Iran has left around 480,000 homes without power and some towns and villages cut off.

What is causing these extreme weather events? The image below tells the story. While at times it has been cold at many places around the world, when averaged over the past 30 days, temperatures around the globe have actually been several degrees higher than they used to be. The Arctic has been hit hardest, with anomalies as high as 21°C over this 30 day period. This affects the Jet Stream and Polar Vortex, which in turn is making the weather ever more extreme.

The situation is further illustrated by the cci-reanalyzer.org forecasts below.

And while the sea ice didn't look too bad at the start of the year, growth has meanwhile stopped, as illustrated by the image below.

Added below are two videos by Paul Beckwith, further discussing the situation.

Editor's note: Reanalysis of temperature anomaly Jan 12 - Feb 10, 2014.

Meanwhile, I've added another image (above), created with NOAA's reanalysis, which compares temperatures to a larger dataset, and the colors look a lot different, so NOAA may indeed have mixed the colors up somewhat in the initial image, as Albert suggested at the Facebook discussion (click on image below).

Anyway, the point made in the post remains, i.e. that as global warming continues, warming in the Arctic accelerates more rapidly than at lower latitudes, which weakens the polar vortex and jet stream in a self-reinforcing feedback that causes the Arctic to warm up even further compared with lower latitudes.

As said, the situation calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.

High methane readings over Greenland

High methane readings have been recorded over Greenland since the start of February 2014. The image below shows methane readings of 1950 ppb and higher in yellow on February 9, 2014.

The animation below shows that high methane readings (1950+ ppb in yellow) have been showing up over Greenland since the start of February 2014.

[ Note: this animation is a 3.28 MB file that may take some time to fully load ]

What could have caused these high methane readings? The persistence with which the methane shows up over Greenland indicates that it did indeed originate from Greenland.

The above animation also illustrates that high methane readings show up every other image. The IASI readings come from a satellite that is orbiting the poles twice daily, with a 12-hour interval, so the satellite passes the North Pole twice every day. This makes that the images follow a day-versus night pattern, indicating that the high methane readings follow a circadian rhythm, suggesting a pattern that is in line with temperature differences between day and night.

There often is a difference in methane readings between day and night, but rarely is it as distinct as is currently the case over Greenland. And indeed, more is currently happening to temperatures over Greenland than mere differences in temperature between day and night.

As discussed in earlier posts such as this one, the once-common temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes has been shattered, and this is weakening the Jet Stream and the Polar Vortex, in turn making it easier for cold air to flow down to lower latitudes and for warmer air to enter the Arctic. As a result, temperatures over Greenland can go from one extreme to another and back, as illustrated by the image with selected cci-reanalyzer.org forecasts below.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Above image shows that, in some areas over Greenland, temperature anomalies may go down as low as as minus 20 degrees Celsius one day, then climb as high as 20 degrees Celsius a few days laters, to hit temperature anomalies as low as minus 20 degrees Celsius again some days later. These are swings of 40 degrees Celsius that can hit an area over the course of a few days. 

This could explain the methane over Greenland. Methane is present in the Greenland ice sheet in the form of hydrates and free gas. These huge temperature swings are causing the ice to expand and contract, thus causing difference in pressure as well as temperature. The combined shock of wide pressure and temperature differences is causing movement and fractures in the ice allowing methane to rise to the surface and enter the atmosphere.

The image below puts things in perspective, comparing methane over Greenland with methane over the Arctic Ocean.

Above image shows that the amounts of methane over Greenland are huge, while methane is still being released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, in particular along the faultline that runs from the north of Greenland to the Laptev Sea. 

Few people seem to have anticipated these methane releases from the mountains of Greenland. Even worse, similar processes could be going at times on Antarctica, the Himalayas and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. I warned about this danger, e.g. in the May 2013 post Is Global Warming breaking up the Integrity of the Permafrost?. The danger that methane will be released in large (and growing) quantities from hydrates and free gas contained in the ice over mountains appears to have been ignored by the IPCC, which puts more weight on my estimate that methane release from hydrates currently amounts to 99 Tg annually, vastly more than the most recent IPCC estimates of 6 Tg per year. 

Without action on climate change, these methane releases threaten to rise even further and cause runaway global warming. This calls for comprehensive and effective action as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.