Facing up to climate change, repairing the system and looking forward to a bright future

Bru Pearce
works at Envisionation Ltd

by Bru Pearce

I find myself talking about climate change a lot, explaining the consequences of rising atmospheric CO2 and Ocean acidification, of how it is a here and now problem, that is getting exponentially worse year upon year as weather all over the world gets more extreme. With the result that I’m often seen as a prophet of doom delivering a message that no one really wants to hear or is prepared to believe. Far too often the retort being; “that the problem is too big to deal with, what can anybody do about it, better to carry on as normal”?

The truth is that most people are far more concerned about the immediate economic pressures that they have on them. They hide behind the thought that the current recession is part of the normal cycle and that recovery is just around the corner. They fail to realise that on our present course there can be no recovery, the cycle is over. We have dumped our pollutants in the atmosphere and in the oceans, the damage is done, the climate is destabilising and starting to shift to another state. Global food security is already becoming a real issue that is driving us towards economic and social collapse.

At which point I say “the good news is that changing our energy economy is also the key to ending our economic worries” which produces the response, “So how does that work and what would you do?”

So now I have to lay out my thoughts on the solutions.

The Plan

1) We have to persuade the vast majority of people of the dire need to start taking action now and convince them of the benefits. People need to connect the extreme weather events that are occurring now with increasing intensity and frequency with the imminent danger we all face. Plenty of groups are attempting to do that. – But it is a most unpalatable message, if not enough is also said about our ability to avert disaster. We associate the solutions to climate change and a complete switch to a renewable energy economy with a return to economic prosperity.

2) So we have to present the choices

a) Inaction – has brought us to the brink of total disaster, famine, starvation, war, heat and drought, intolerable mad weather – leading to economic collapse and a potential end to 90% of life on earth.

b) Take action now - to restore a stable climate, by managing the oceans and atmosphere – leading to an end of the recession and a secure and prosperous future for us, and for generations to come.

That should be a no brainer!

3) The problems that are taking us to disaster

a) Our emissions of green house gasses to the atmosphere from burning hydrocarbon fuels (oil gas and coal) have to be stopped (we have to get to zero emissions)

b) The worlds current economic structure is driven by the hydrocarbon industry which makes huge profits and is therefore very resistant to change

c) We are allowing Arctic Sea ice to melt which means that more and more heat is being absorbed by the dark open ocean and warming the arctic air, this is accelerating climate change by reducing the temperature gradient between equatorial regions and the Poles leading to a slowing of the Jet Stream and more extreme weather.

d) Much of the security behind corporate and national debt is based on not yet extracted hydrocarbons, oil, gas and coal reserves. If these are extracted it is a 100% certainty that we will kick off runaway climate change. It is very hard to see how civilisation and 90% of life on earth could survive this.

e) Although Earth’s climate is naturally in a state of constant change, the scale and the speed of the change that man has caused to the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels goes massively beyond any of the changes that have occurred in the past 12,000 years. In fact we appear to be changing things faster than happened 57 million years ago when the last great extinction event occurred.

f) The inertia in the system means that whatever we do, further warming and sea level rise is already committed to; therefore adaptation is going to be required.

4) Identify what needs to be done

a) Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have to be brought back down below 300 ppm as quickly as possible. Requiring the capture and sequestration (storage) of 250 Gt of CO2. This cannot be done overnight it is going to take years to bring CO2 concentrations back down.

b) Power has to be delivered and transportation has to continue, the global economic structure cannot be allowed to collapse

c) Time that we do not have is required in order to convert to a renewable energy economy and repair the climate – a stop gap solution will have to be employed.

d) Hydrocarbon securities are going to have to be written off and the debts restructured.

5) Take Control

a) We are now faced with the necessity of re-geo-engineering the planet and it is therefore vital that we are able to fully understand and monitor Earth Systems. Huge efforts and resources need to go into Earth system modelling. This needs to be the world’s priority scientific endeavour on a scale to match the Hadron Collider at CERN. The economic value of this project will be incalculable as its results will affect every business on the planet.

b) The changes we have already made by burning fossil fuels probably mean that the earth systems will never return to quite the same state of relative equilibrium that has been enjoyed for the past 12,000 years. There will be positive and adverse effects to geo-engineering which will lead to a need for regional climate management. (Such as storm and drought management).  We therefore have to be able to accurately monitor the full effects of our actions. This opens the opportunity for positive intervention and will improve our ability to feed the world’s population.

i) Note; we are now suffering the effect of mans inadvertent big geo engineering experiment, that of adding 250 Gt of CO2 and other green house gasses to the atmosphere over the past 150 years.

ii) We started geo-engineering some 6,000 years ago when we began clearing the forest for agriculture. (we have loads of experience)

c) The Arctic has to be cooled now to restore the albedo effect and prevent radiated heat from the sun being absorbed by the dark oceans which will lead to methane release and run away global heating.

Solutions

It is absolutely critical that we cut our CO2 emissions and remove the excess Carbon from the atmosphere. This is going to require time, firstly to make the change to all renewable energy generation and secondly to draw CO2 down out of the atmosphere. Time has already run out, by allowing the Arctic sea ice to melt we have changed the climate dynamics and we now face the further horror of runaway climate change as methane hydrates trapped in the tundra and under the Arctic Sea defrost and release to the atmosphere. Therefore we have to immediately embark on reflective geo-engineering activities to treat this symptom of global warming. However reflective activities will do nothing to prevent further CO2 absorption into the oceans which raises their acidity. Reflective geo-engineering is only a stopgap solution while we remedy the cause of the problem and return to stable atmospheric CO2 levels.

6) There are some solutions that we can all get on with (that’s all 7 billion of us).Regulation will help, but there are no major impediments to us taking action as individuals!

a) Take our heads out of the sand and face up to what’s happening, acknowledge the problem, accept it, talk about it, and be part of the solution.

b) Reduce emissions – a lot of what we do is entirely unnecessary and many of the reductions we make will have minimal effect on us, indeed in many cases we can make big financial savings:

i) Control thermostats so that there is no excessive heating or cooling

ii) Cut out unnecessary travel and massively reduce recreational use of hydrocarbon fuels

iii) Increase thermal efficiency of buildings

iv) Cut out unnecessary lighting

v) Mange carbon foot prints – educated and act accordingly

vi) Accept that use of hydrocarbons is directly impacting billions of people who are feeling the first effects and that our collective actions are already causing the starvation of millions! Connect with those people because if we don’t act it may be your turn next.

c) Make a positive effort to restore the atmosphere “Capture carbon” - Start planting and growing long living biomass (trees and shrubs) where ever possible. Adding 10 or 20% to the land based biomass of the planet would make a huge difference to atmospheric CO2 levels

d) Geo-engineer to cool the planet by reflecting solar radiation (heat) away – individuals and corporations should paint every roof and available reflective surface white! This is a stop gap effort, while we make the switch to renewable energy to help prevent runaway climate change.

7) Solutions requiring Governmental legislation and international cooperation

a) Buy time by implementing large scale projects to cool the Arctic reflect heat away and increasing the planets Albedo – cloud whitening.

b) Implement and strengthen existing carbon markets.

c) Change the ground rules so that it becomes mandatory to clean up or pay others to clean up carbon pollution. (Note this has to be 100% + to recover emissions already dumped in the atmosphere). Making CO2 pollution a crime will eventually alleviates the need for carbon markets. The Eradicating Ecocide campaign which proposes making major environmental damage a 5^th Crime Against Peace, provides a ready to go structure for this.

d) Enact legislation to support voluntary CO2 reduction actions

e) Promote and support alternative energy systems, wind, solar, wave...

f) Support the conversion of hydrocarbon based companies to geothermal and other renewable energies.

g) Support the rapid implementation of the next generation of nuclear power stations, (ensure that these are built with increasing extreme weather events, sea level rise and increased geological activity taken into account).

h) Support the massive implementation of Pyrolysis technologies to lock up CO2 captured by the biosphere. Pyrolysis all agro waste to create renewable energy and char or bio char for carbon sequestration and soil improvement.

i) Research and implement other biological carbon capture and systems such as diatom fertilisation in the oceans.

j) Stimulate long term thinking by supporting long term financial structures.

8) Finance the transition to a new sustainable renewable energy economy

a) Once the real cost of Hydrocarbon energy is imposed by adding the cleanup cost renewable energy generation will become competitive.

b) Transfer and recognise the financial security potential of yet to be implemented renewable capabilities. i.e. geothermal capability and solar capability.

c) The potential for a long term future will revive confidence in the markets and long term leading will become attractive with much higher levels of investor security.

d) Increased efficiency will bring profits over time across all sectors.

9) Adaptation – Even reducing CO2 levels back to pre-industrial levels will not stop the effects of climate change already set in motion, due to the inertia of the earth systems. Sea level rise will continue and accelerate until at least the end of the century. This will require huge infrastructure projects to protect or move coastal town and cities. This presents wonderful opportunities to produce new cities that are vastly more efficient in every respect.

10) Embrace Science

a) Bio engineering for new drought resilient crops and crops with greater biomass potential

b) Nuclear energy – based on Thorium and other non weapons materials that are less polluting and have the potential to eradicate existing nuclear waste.

c) Support research and development of fusion energy systems

d) Micro climate engineering

e) Water recovery and management systems

11) Cease the pointless and unnecessary

a) Cut back dramatically on unnecessary use of world resources and appreciate that these are finite and have far greater value than we place on them at present.

b) Reduce working hours and create time for arts and science, recreation and caring. Work for works sake is pointless we need to recalibrate. 4 billion people are seeking to bring their life styles up to 1^st world levels.

12) Education and values – outside of religion expand on United Nations Charter to:

a) Teach that life is a lease with a requirement for environmental improvement

b) Value bio diversity

c) Expand on human rights to include the rights of all living things and the rights of generations to come. (Built into the 5th law of Peace)

13) Public relations

a) Get the show on the road by engaging in an international public relations effort to promote the advantages and benefits of taking action now. Associate the change to a renewable energy economy with positive messages that highlight the benefits so that the people demand action and make taking action the political imperative.

Economics of the Sustainable Age

The work required to enact the above will require huge resources to be employed, it will be the biggest economic generator ever and because the result is a secure and stable future, confidence will soar, as efficiency not growth becomes the deciding factor.

"Too hard to do you say?"

So now who is the prophet of doom?

Bru Pearce

Originally posted 1st Oct 2012 at http://www.envisionation.co.uk/index.php/blogs/16-the-plan

Accelerated Warming in the Arctic

Why is warming in the Arctic accelerating and where will this lead to?

Where does the extra heat go? 

Global warming is causing Earth to heat up. As shown on the image below, by Nuccitelli et al., most heat goes into the oceans.

Warming of water in the Arctic Ocean

White arrows mark ice drift directions. Red arrows mark
the transport path of warm Atlantic water entering the
Arctic where it submerges under the cold, ice-covered
surface layer.  Robert Spielhagen (IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel)

Global warming is heating up the oceans big time. As above image shows, the global ocean heat content has been rising for many years.

The Arctic is affected in particular by the Thermohaline Circulation.

Water flowing into the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean is about 2°C warmer today than it has been for at least 2,000 years, according to a study published in Science. The current of warm water lies 50 metres below the surface, and can reach 6°C in summer — warm compared to Arctic surface waters, which can be -2°C.

At the same time, cold water and sea ice are driven out of the Arctic Ocean, along the edges of Greenland. The net result is a marked increase in the temperature of the water in the Arctic Ocean, especially the top layer of the water which causes the sea ice to melt.


The Arctic radiates comparatively less heat into space 

Cold layers of air close to the surface make it difficult for infrared radiation to go out to space, according to a study published in Science. These layers do warm up, but warming of these layers is directed downwards, thus amplifying warming in the Arctic.


Surface air temperatures in the Arctic are rising rapidly

Anomalies for surface air temperatures are higher in the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth. This is illustrated by the interactive images and text in the box at the bottom of this post.

The increase in temperature anomalies appears to be an exponential rise. This is caused not only by the above-described impacts of cold air close to the surface, but also by feedback effects as further described below.


Feedbacks further accelerate warming in the Arctic

Feedbacks are described in more detail in posts such as Diagram of Doom (image below) and Changes to Polar Vortex affect mile-deep ocean circulation patterns.

One such feedback is albedo change — retreat of Arctic sea ice results in less sunlight being reflected back into space, as further discussed in Albedo Change in the Arctic. Loss of Arctic sea ice is effectively doubling mankind's contribution to global warming. Increased absorption of the sun's rays is the equivalent of about 20 years of additional CO2 being added by man, Professor Peter Wadhams said in a recent BBC article.

One of the most threatening feedbacks is release of methane that are held in the currently frozen seabed. As the seabed warms up, it starts to release methane in what can be rather abrupt ways. Due to methane's high global warming potential, this can further accelerate local warming, triggering further methane releases, in a vicious circle that threatens to spiral into runaway global warming.

You are now entering the nonlinearity zone…

By Paul Beckwith

Adapted from a September 28, 2012, post at the Sierra Club Canada blog

Push something and it moves a little. Push it a little more and it moves a little more. This is called a “linearity” response. But sometimes a little push can lead to something totally unexpected! This is called “nonlinearity” and, contrary to what one might think, nonlinearities are inherent in most systems - like our atmosphere, for example. In fact, abrupt and unexpected change happens at some point in most systems - we even have a saying for such unexpected outcomes: a tipping point.

Until recently, our atmosphere and oceans behaved like linear systems: incremental dumping of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere caused incremental changes, like rising temperatures and predictable rates of ice melt. But things are now changing unexpectedly fast – nonlinearity is kicking in! We only have to look at the rapidly vanishing arctic icecap for astonishing evidence.

A few years ago, I felt compelled to leave my previous pursuits in Engineering Physics (and chess master) to begin a PhD thesis focusing on abrupt climate change. I felt the planet’s climate was approaching several tipping points and analysis of Paleoclimatology records (tree rings, ice cores, ocean sediment, etc.) may provide evidence on what tipping points – nonlinearities – we might expect to see first (and maybe prevent).



Sadly, I’m late to the game. The rapidly disappearing Arctic icecap is a tipping point in motion. In all likelihood, statistically speaking, it’s gone, history. Within a few years when the ice disappears entirely, for the first time in 3 (or as many as 13) million years, hold on because our weather patterns will be drastically destabilized. Most folks in my field are still reluctant to acknowledge this 800 pound gorilla staring us right in the face.

Image credit: Sam Carana in Methane in the Arctic 

Methane, an extremely potent greenhouse gas (105 times more efficient at trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide over 20 years, see image left) is a product of ancient wetlands, locked in permafrost and ocean sediments for millions of years. Today, warming air and seawater causes methane to be released more quickly. In the ocean off Siberia, methane plumes greater than one kilometre in diameter have been observed. Shocking stuff in my business.

And other tipping points abound. If the melting Arctic icecap isn’t bad enough, how about persistent droughts turning the Amazon rainforest into dry savannah? Much of the forest would burn first, delivering the double whammy of massive carbon emissions and the loss of a vital carbon sink.

Or how about collapsing boreal forest ecosystems. In Canada, drought-stressed trees, not already under attack by mountain pine beetles and emerald ash borers, would surely burn in the new norm of arid heat waves.

Perhaps the Greenland ice sheet will be the ultimate smoking gun. It contains enough water to raise global sea level by seven metres. With melt rates doubling every few years, knowing what I know, I can honestly say I am gravely concerned. Many models predict Greenland’s ice sheet will be ‘ok’ for another 3 centuries, but as I wrote in my last blog, you can officially pitch those models out the window.

Unlike our ancestors, humanity has a shot at stopping this – that is, if we throw everything we have at it. But we need to urgently focus on doing two things: radically reduce carbon emissions and prevent further warming of the Arctic Ocean; and keep as much methane locked underground as possible (we have the technology to do this today).

We have officially entered the realm of unknown-unknowns; the nonlinearity zone.

The question is will politicians reach the tipping point of reason?

Posted with author's permission. Earlier posted at Sierra Club Canada. Paul Beckwith is a PhD student with the laboratory for paleoclimatology and climatology, department of geography, University of Ottawa. 

Vanishing Arctic sea ice is rapidly changing global climate

By Paul Beckwith

Adapted from a September 21, 2012, post at the Sierra Club Canada blog

About 5 million years ago continental drift pushed North and South America together, creating the Isthmus of Panama where the Central American Seaway ocean passage had previously existed. The Pacific and Atlantic were no longer connected, drastically altering global ocean currents and atmospheric circulation patterns. As the Atlantic Gulf Stream strengthened, it carried vast amounts of moisture into the northern regions. The Arctic eventually cooled and it’s estimated sea ice cover has existed continuously in the Arctic Ocean for 3 million years, possibly for as long as 13 million years.

Slow cycling between cold and warm periods occurred on Earth many times due to the planet's changing orbit, tilt, and position relative to the sun. This caused the sea ice to wax and wane in size but it always persisted, never vanishing. Not any longer. The sea ice will disappear for longer and longer periods over the coming years until it is finally gone for good, likely within a decade.

The world will be a different place - just like the world from 3, or even 13, million years ago. No longer will the bright white parasol on the top of the world reflect sunlight and keep the Arctic cool. Dark seawater will absorb light and rapid Arctic warming will quickly decrease temperature gradients between the pole and equator. Jet streams will slow down, meander and change tracks. Storms will change in location, intensity, frequency, and speed and everything that humans know about weather and seasons for growing food will be obsolete. Everything.

Higher global temperatures will cause more evaporation, putting more water vapor into the atmosphere. Condensing into clouds, huge amounts of heat will be released, fueling even larger and more frequent storms.

Throw out the models that project disturbing climate effects in 2100. They're happening now! Already we're seeing rising sea levels from the massive and accelerating Greenland ice melt. The rapid warming of southern oceans is melting and destabilizing Antarctic ice from below, causing enormous chunks to break off (we’ve all seen them on TV). And big increases in Arctic temperatures mean terrestrial permafrost is melting and the now-warmer continental shelf sea floor is releasing increasing amounts of methane gas, a potent climate change gas.

Why is the sea ice getting hammered? Feedback loops. Unknown unknowns

NASA images showing the difference between sea ice cover between 1980 and 2012.

A very rare cyclone churned up the entire Arctic region for over a week in early August, destroying 20% of the ice area by breaking it into tiny chunks, melting it, or spitting it into the Atlantic. Cold fresh surface water from melted sea ice mixed with warm salty water from a 500 metre depth! Totally unexpected. A few more cyclones with similar intensity could have eliminated the entire remaining ice cover. Thankfully that didn't happen. What did happen was Hurricane Leslie tracked northward and passed over Iceland as a large storm. It barely missed the Arctic this time. Had the storm tracked 500 to 600 kilometres westward, Leslie would have churned up the west coast of Greenland and penetrated directly into the Arctic Ocean basin.

We dodged a bullet, at least this year. This luck will surely run out. What can we do about this? How about getting our politicians to listen to climatologists, for starters.

Posted with author's permission. Earlier posted at Sierra Club Canada. Paul Beckwith is a PhD student with the laboratory for paleoclimatology and climatology, department of geography, University of Ottawa.