Arctic News: wind

Showing posts with label wind. Show all posts

Monday, April 1, 2019

An infinite scream passing through nature

Wind patterns on March 30, 2019, resembled what Edvard Munch wrote in his diary in 1892, i.e. "I sensed an infinite scream passing through nature", a feeling Munch expressed in his iconic artwork The Scream, part of which is added on the right in above image.

Indeed, at the end of March 2019, it felt like an infinite scream passing through nature! On March 31, 2019, 12:00 UTC, the Arctic was 7.7°C or 13.86°F warmer than 1979-2000, as above image shows, while in parts of Alaska the anomaly was at the top end of the scale, i.e. 30°C or 54°F above 1979-2000, as discussed in an earlier post.

What caused this to eventuate? Firstly, as the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world, the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator is narrowing, which is slowing down the overall speed at which the jet stream is circumnavigating Earth, while it also is making the jet stream wavier, enabling warm air from the Atlantic Ocean and Pacific Ocean to more easily enter the Arctic, while also enabling cold air from the Arctic to more easily descend over Asia and North America.

At the same time, global warming is making oceans warmer. Sea surface temperatures were high in the path of the jet stream on March 15, 2019, as above image shows. The sea surface was 10.8°C or 19.4°F warmer than 1981-2011 at the green circle in the left panel of above image. On that day, surface air temperature there was as high as 7.9°C or 46.2°F, and there were cyclonic wind patterns, as the right panel of above image shows.

High sea surface temperatures are causing winds over oceans to get much stronger than they used to be at this time of year.

The image on the right shows that, on March 15, 2019, the jet stream reached speeds as high as 386 km/h or 240 mph at the green circle. These stronger winds then collide at high speed with the air in front of them. This collision occurs with an even greater force, due to low temperatures over North America and due to the lower overall speed at which the jet stream circumnavigates Earth. All this makes that air gets strongly pushed aside toward the Arctic and the Equator.

On March 30, 2019, strong winds pushed warm air into Bering Strait, resulting in temperatures as high as 2.5°C or 36.4°F, as the image below illustrates.

On March 30, 2019, Arctic sea ice extent fell to a record low for the time of year, as discussed in an earlier post. Ominously, methane reached peak levels as high as 2,967 ppb on March 29, 2019, as the image below shows.

With Arctic sea ice extent this low and with temperatures rising relentlessly, fears are that the sea ice won't be able to act as a buffer to absorb heat for long, and that a strong influx of warm, salty water will reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and trigger methane eruptions from destabilizing hydrates.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.

Links

• Arctic Warming Up Fast
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/03/arctic-warming-up-fast.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

Thursday, February 1, 2018

North Pole forecast to be above freezing on Feb 5, 2018

The image below shows a forecast of above freezing temperatures over the North Pole on Feb 5, 2018.

Above image shows a forecast of air temperature of 0.2°C or 32.4°F at 1000 hPa over the North Pole on February 5, 2018, 21:00 UTC.

Above image shows a forecast of temperatures of 1.1 °C or 33.9°F at the North Pole at 1000 hPa, on February 5, 2018, 18:00 UTC.

Above image shows a large area around the North Pole forecast to be up to 30°C or 54°F warmer than 1979-2000 on February 5, 2018.

Above image shows sea surface temperatures as high as 15.1°C or 59.2°F near Svalbard on February 9, 2018, in the panel on the left, and air temperatures as high as 6°C or 42.7°F (at 1000 hPa) near Svalbard on February 10, 2018, in the panel on the right.

These high temperatures are caused not only by ocean heat, but also by strong winds pushing warm air and water up from the North Atlantic into the Arctic. Above image shows the Jet Stream moving at speeds as high as 315 km/h or 196 mph (green circle, February 6, 2018, 6:00 UTC), moving in backward direction over Scandinavia, while extending over Antarctica and crossing the Equator at a number of places.

The decreasing temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator is slowing down the speed at which the jet stream circumnavigates Earth and this is also making the jet stream more wavy.

As a more wavy jet stream extends deeper down over land, it allows cold air from the Arctic to flow down over land. As temperatures over land fall, the difference between ocean temperature and land temperature increases, especially in winter when land temperatures are much lower than ocean temperatures. This increasing difference between land and ocean temperature makes winds stronger and faster over oceans.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

In above image, the left panel shows a wavy jet stream speeding up over the North Atlantic, reaching speeds as high as 345 km/h or 215 mph (at green circle, 250 hPa).

In above image, the right panel shows strong winds pushing warm air from the Pacific Ocean through Bering Strait, resulting in temperatures over Alaska as high as 6.6°C or 44°F (at green circle, at 850 hPa).

The image on the right shows that waves as high as 8.27 m or 27.2 ft (at green circle) are forecast to enter the Arctic Ocean near Svalbard on February 5, 2018, giving an indication of the huge amount of energy that is going into oceans.

Earth is retaining more heat. This translates into higher surface temperatures, more heat getting stored in oceans and stronger winds. This in turn is causing higher waves and more evaporation from the sea surface. The image on the right shows a forecast of total amount of cloud water (in air from surface to space) of 1.5 kg/m² (green circle) in between Svalbard and the North Pole on February 5, 2018.

Warm air, warm water and high waves make it hard for sea ice to form, while evaporation from the ocean adds more water vapor to the atmosphere. Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, this further accelerates warming of the Arctic.

The high temperatures at the North Pole follow high temperatures over East Siberia, as illustrated by the image below.

Above image shows average temperature anomalies for January 31, 2018, compared to 1979-2000. The image below shows open water on the East Siberian coast in the Arctic Ocean that day.

Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice extent is very low. The image below shows that extent on January 30, 2018, was 13.391 million km², a record low for the time of the year.

In the video below, Paul Beckwith discusses the situation.

In the podcast below, by Wolfgang Werminghausen, entitled Sam Carana about the Arctic and global temperature, Sam Carana's responses are read by Kevin Hester.

From the interview, Sam Carana: "Methane releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean have a strong warming impact, especially locally, AND methane releases in the Arctic also act as a catalyst for other feedbacks that are all self-reinforcing and interlinked, amplifying each other in many ways. It could easily become 10°C or 18°F warmer in a matter of years, especially in places where most people are now living."

The image below shows that on February 11, 2018, methane reached peak levels as high as 2925 ppb.

High methane peaks are becoming more common as the water temperature of oceans keeps rising, which also goes hand in hand with more water vapor and less sea ice. As said, these are all warming elements that amplify each other in many ways.

On Feb 8, 2018, Antarctic sea ice extent was 2.382 million km², a record low for the time of the year and 1.811 million km² less than the extent on Feb 8, 2014.

The image on the right illustrates the huge loss of sea ice around Antarctica over the past few years. Antarctic sea ice looks set to reach an all-time low extent later this month, with a difference of close to 2 million km² persisting, compared to just a few years ago.

The image below shows a forecast for February 5, 2018, with as much as 3.84 kg/m² (green circle) Total Cloud Water in between South Africa and Antarctica.

More water vapor in the air contributes to global warming, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. The image below shows a forecast for February 5, 2018, with temperatures on Antarctica reaching as high as 8.9°C or 47.9°F (update Feb. 11, 2018: 7.1°C or 44.7°F at 78°S, 17°E at 1000 hPa on Feb. 5, 2018, 15:00z).

At this time of year, global sea ice is typically at its lowest extent for the year. On February 9, 2018, global sea ice reached the lowest extent on record, as illustrated by the image below by Wipneus.

This means that a huge amount of sunlight that was previously reflected back into space is now instead getting absorbed by oceans.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Sunday, December 24, 2017

Winds keep changing as warming continues

November 2017 was 0.87 degrees Celsius warmer than the mean 1951-1980 November temperature, as above image shows. The last three Novembers — 2015, 2016, and 2017 — are the three warmest in the entire modern record. The warmest month of November happened in 2015 (+1.03°C) when there was a strong El Niño, while we're currently in a La Niña period.

On the image below, cyclonic winds on December 21, 2017, are visible near the Philippines and Vietnam. Near the Philippines, 3-hour precipitation accumulation was as high as 121.6 mm or 4.79 in (at green circle). As a BBC report describes, Tropical Storm Tembin made landfall in the southern Philippines on December 22, 2017, causing flash flooding and mudslides. More than 180 people are reported to have been killed, as the tropical storm swept through Mindanao island, with dozens more missing.

A week earlier, Tropical Storm Kai-Tak hit the central Philippines, killing dozens. The region is still recovering from Typhoon Haiyan, which killed more than 5,000 people and affected millions in 2013.

The winds are fueled by high sea surface temperatures. Above image shows that, on December 21, 2017, sea surface temperatures were as high as 31.7°C or 89°F north of Australia. In line with rising temperatures caused by global warming, sea surface temperature anomalies are high across the oceans, as the image below illustrates.

As above image also shows, the sea surface was relatively cold at locations indicative for El Niño (depicted as four El Niño regions on the right).

The image below shows El Niño forecast plumes indicating that we're currently in a La Niña period, and that temperatures are on the rise.

In conclusion, just like the rise in temperatures is currently masked by a La Niña period, the return to a new El Niño period will further strengthen the rise.

This strengthening of winds is what can be expected in a warmer world. Above image shows a wavy Northern Polar Jet Stream combine with the Northern Subtropical Jet Stream to reach speeds as high as 401 km/h or 249 mph.

As the jet stream becomes more wavy and extends over the Arctic, more warm air and water gets carried into the Arctic, further speeding up warming, as also discussed at The Arctic is changing the Jet Stream - Why This Is Important.

The importance of Arctic warming was also discussed in the recent post Warming is accelerating. Changes to the Jet Stream can cause a lot more heat to be brought into the Arctic, through both the Bering Strait and the Fram Strait. This image below shows wind through the Bering Strait reaching speeds as high as 135 km/h or 84 mph.

The combination image below shows the Jet Stream extending over the Arctic Ocean and remaining in place for days, reaching speeds as high as 206 km/h or 128 mph. Such 'blocking' patterns can cause a lot of heat to be brought into the Arctic atmosphere, as well as into the water of the Arctic Ocean. The image in the left-hand panel indicates that temperature anomalies over the Arctic Ocean could be as high as 30°C or 54°F.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

As the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator decreases, the Jet Stream becomes more wavy, at times extending deep over the continents and bringing cold air to the south. This further increases the (already high) temperature difference between land and ocean, further speeding up cyclonic winds that move over the oceans toward the North Pole and that carry warm water and air toward the Arctic Ocean. The image below shows a forecast for January 1, 2018.

As sea ice keeps declining, ever less sunlight gets reflected back into space. The image below shows the decline in global sea ice area over the years.

The image below shows the average year-to-date Arctic sea ice volume (PIOMAS data).

This further confirms the updated trend analysis of the NASA temperature anomaly below.

Saturday, October 7, 2017

Hurricane Nate Threatens New Orleans

The image below, a forecast for October 8, 2017, run on October 7, shows Hurricane Nate near New Orleans, with winds as fast as 83 mph or 134 km/h (at 850 mb) and up to 5.33 in or 135.4 mm (3-hour precipitation accumulation) of rain (at the green circle).

Early forecast also showed as much as 6.1 in or 154.9 mm of rain (3-hour precipitation accumulation) hitting the Mississippi coast.

The NOAA image below also shows the track over North America as forecast over the next few days.

Nate, the fourth major storm to strike the United States in less than two months, killed at least 30 people in Central America before entering the warm waters of the Gulf and bearing down on the U.S. South (Reuters report).

One of the biggest dangers is storm surge flooding, as illustrated by above image and the tweet below.

7-11 ft storm surge on the MS Gulf Coast and open water coast in SE LA from #Nate. I’m 6ft 6 in. This pole is 11 ft. Some perspective. pic.twitter.com/kisGyATz13
— Ken Graham (@wx4keg) October 7, 2017

As the world keeps warming, hurricanes are increasingly causing damage, as also discussed in a recent post.

The situation is dire a calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.

Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• NOAA National Hurricane Center
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

• The Arctic is Changing the Jet Stream - Why This Is Important
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/10/the-arctic-is-changing-the-jet-stream-why-this-is-important.html

• Extreme weather is upon us
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/09/extreme-weather-is-upon-us.html

Monday, October 2, 2017

The Arctic is Changing the Jet Stream - Why This Is Important

By Sam Carana, with contributions by Jennifer Francis

Global warming is increasing the strength of hurricanes. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor and sea surface temperatures are rising. Both of these changes strengthen hurricanes. Steering winds may also be changing, causing unusual hurricane tracks such as Sandy's left turn into the mid-Atlantic seaboard and Harvey's stagnation over Houston. Is rapid Arctic warming playing a role?

Jennifer Francis has long been warning that global warming is increasing the likelihood of wavier jet stream patterns and more frequent blocking events, both of which have been observed. The Arctic is warming more rapidly than the rest of the world. The narrowing temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes is weakening the speed at which the jet stream circumnavigates Earth and may be making the jet stream more wavy. In a 2012 study, Jennifer Francis and Stephen Vavrus warned that this makes atmospheric blocking events in the Northern Hemisphere more likely, aggravating extreme weather events related to stagnant weather conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.

The danger was highlighted later that year, when a strong block associated with a deep jet stream trough helped steered Hurricane Sandy toward New York. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey hovered over Houston and dumped record-breaking rains (over 50 inches in some locations!), again highlighting this danger.

The jet stream separates cold air in the Arctic from warmer air farther south. A wavier jet stream transports more heat and moisture into the Arctic. This speeds up warming of the Arctic in a number of ways. In addition to warming caused by the extra heat, the added water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, trapping more heat in the atmosphere over the Arctic, while it also causes more clouds to form that also are effective heat trappers.

As the Arctic keeps warming, the jet stream is expected to become more distorted, bringing ever more heat and moisture into the Arctic. This constitutes a self-reinforcing feedback loop that keeps making the situation worse. In conclusion, it's high time for more comprehensive and effective action to reduce the underlying culprit: global warming.

Jennifer Francis is Research Professor at the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University, where she studies Arctic climate change and the link between the Arctic and global climates.

Jennifer has received funding from the National Science Foundation and NASA. She is a member of the American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, Association for Women in Science and the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Links

• Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes, by Jennifer Francis and Stephen Vavrus (March 17, 2012)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051000/full

• Why Are Arctic Linkages to Extreme Weather Still Up in the Air? By Jennifer Francis (July 7, 2017)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0006.1

• Amplified Arctic warming and mid‐latitude weather: new perspectives on emerging connections, by Jennifer Francis, Stephen Vavrus, Judah Cohen (May 16, 2017)
http://wires.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WiresArticle/wisId-WCC474.html

• Jennifer Francis: A New Arctic Feedback - Dec 2016 interview with Peter Sinclair (Jan 16, 2017)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_EzF4k9_QY

• Precipitation over the Arctic - by Sam Carana (27 Jan 2017)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_q3uWQR8Mw

• Jennifer Francis - Understanding the jet stream (26 Feb 2013)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nzwJg4Ebzo

Monday, July 10, 2017

Rain Over Arctic Ocean

It's raining over the Arctic Ocean and the rain is devastating the sea ice. What are the conditions that led to this?

As has been known for a long time, energy is added to Earth due to emissions by people and this translates into a warmer troposphere with more water vapor, warmer oceans and stronger winds.

Warming is hitting the Arctic particularly hard, due to numerous feedbacks, as illustrated by the sea surface temperature anomalies image on the right.

On July 6, 2017, cyclonic winds lined up to create a 'perfect storm'. As a result, an Atmospheric River of moisture was driven through Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean, as shown on the images below.

On July 6, 2017, 1500 UTC, winds in Bering Strait were as high as 58 km/h (36 mph) at surface level (green circle on above image left), and as high as 82 km/h (51 mph) at 850 mb (green circle on above image right).

On July 6, 2017, surface temperatures of the air in Bering Strait were as high as 8.1°C (46.5°F) (green circle on image right).

Another indication of the strength of the wind driven through Bering Strait is wave height. On July 6, 2017, waves were as high as 3.35 m or 11 ft in the Bering Strait, at the location marked by the green circle on the image on the right.

The relatively warm and moist air driven through Bering Strait by strong winds is causing rain to fall over the sea ice of the Arctic Ocean, as shown on the video and images further below.

On July 7, 2017, high air temperatures were recorded over land and over the water.

The image below shows temperatures recorded at two locations over the Mackenzie River, one of 32.6°C or 90.8°F at the mouth of the Mackenzie River and another one of 34.7°C or 94.5°F further inland. Warm water from rivers can substantially warm up the sea surface and thus melt the sea ice.

Temperature of the surface of the water was 10°C or 50.1°F where the water was pushed into the Bering Strait, while temperatures as high as 46.9°C or 116.3°F were recorded over California.

The combined impact of high temperatures, strong winds, high waves and warm river water, rain water and melt water looks set to further devastate what sea ice is left in the Arctic Ocean.

Rain can be particularly devastating. The very force at which rain strikes can fracture the sea ice where it's weak, while pools of rainwater and meltwater will form at places where the sea ice is stronger. Where fractures appear in the sea ice, warm water can reach further parts of the ice and widen the cracks.

The video below shows rain over the Arctic Ocean. The video was created with cci-reorganizer.org forecasts from July 3, 2017, 18:00 UTC to July 17, 2017, 00:00 UTC.

Arctic sea ice is in a terrible shape. Sea ice volume is at a record low, as indicated by the Wipneus image below showing volume anomalies from 2002.

The image below, by Torstein Viddal, shows how low the 2017 year-to-date average sea ice volume is.

An additional danger is wildfires. Due to high temperatures, wildfires have broken out near the Mackenzie River, as illustrated by the satellite image below.

Wildfires come with a lot of emissions, including soot that darkens the surface when settling down, thus further speeding up warming.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described at the Climate Plan.

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade

[ click on images to enlarge ]

On February 10, 2017, 18:00 UTC it is forecast to be 0.1°C or 32.1°F at the North Pole, i.e. above the temperature at which water freezes. The temperature at the North Pole is forecast to be 30°C or 54°F warmer than 1979-2000, on Feb 10, 2017, 18:00 UTC, as shown on the Climate Reanalyzer image on the right.

This high temperature is expected as a result of strong winds blowing warm air from the North Atlantic into the Arctic.

The forecast below, run on February 4, 2017, shows that winds as fast as 157 km/h or 98 mph were expected to hit the North Atlantic on February 6, 2017, 06:00 UTC, producing waves as high as 16.34 m or 53.6 ft.

A later forecast shows waves as high as 17.18 m or 54.6 ft, as illustrated by the image below.

While the actual wave height and wind speed may not turn out to be as extreme as such forecasts, the images do illustrate the horrific amounts of energy contained in these storms.

Stronger storms go hand in hand with warmer oceans. The image below shows that on February 4, 2017, at a spot off the coast of Japan marked by green circle, the ocean was 19.1°C or 34.4°F warmer than 1981-2011.

As discussed in an earlier post, the decreasing difference in temperature between the Equator and the North Pole causes changes to the jet stream, in turn causing warmer air and warmer water to get pushed from the North Atlantic into the Arctic.

The image below shows that on February 9, 2017, the water at a spot near Svalbard (marked by the green circle) was 13°C or 55.3°F, i.e. 12.1°C or 21.7°F warmer than 1981-2011.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean in turn increases the strength of feedbacks that are accelerating warming in the Arctic. One of these feedbacks is methane that is getting released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Update: The image below shows that methane levels on February 13, 2017, pm, were as high as 2727 ppb, 1½ times the global mean at the time.

[ click on image to enlarge, right image added for reference to show location of continents ]

What caused such a high level? High methane levels (magenta color) over Baffin Bay are an indication of a lot of methane getting released north of Greenland and subsequently getting pushed along the exit current through Nares Strait (see map below). This analysis is supported by the images below, showing high methane levels north of Greenland on the morning of February the 14th (left) and the 15th (right).

The image below shows methane levels as high as 2569 ppb on February 17, 2017. This is an indication of ocean heat further destabilizing permafrost at the seafloor of the Laptev Sea, resulting in high methane concentrations where it is rising in plumes over the Laptev Sea (at 87 mb, left panel) and is spreading over a larger area (at slightly lower concentrations) at higher altitude (74 mb, right panel).

This illustrates how increased inflow of warm water from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean can cause methane to erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Methane releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean have the potential to rapidly and strongly accelerate warming in the Arctic and speed up further feedbacks, raising global temperature with catastrophic consequences in a matter of years. Altogether, these feedbacks and further warming elements could trigger a huge abrupt rise in global temperature making that extinction of many species, including humans, could be less than one decade away.

Youtube video by RT America

Without action, we are facing extinction at unprecedented scale. In many respects, we are already in the sixth mass extinction of Earth's history. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct when temperatures rose by 8°C (14°F) during the Permian-Triassic extinction, or the Great Dying, 252 million years ago.

During the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), which occurred 55 million years ago, global temperatures rose as rapidly as by 5°C in ~13 years, according to a study by Wright et al. A recent study by researchers led by Zebee concludes that the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years. Back in history, the highest carbon release rates of the past 66 million years occurred during the PETM. Yet, the maximum sustained PETM carbon release rate was less than 1.1 Pg C per year, the study by Zebee et al. found. By contrast, a recent annual carbon release rate from anthropogenic sources was ~10 Pg C (2014). The study by Zebee et al. therefore concludes that future ecosystem disruptions are likely to exceed the - by comparison - relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM.

An earlier study by researchers led by De Vos had already concluded that current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be 10,000 times higher.

from the post 2016 well above 1.5°C

As above image shows, a number of warming elements adds up to a potential warming of 10°C (18°F) from pre-industrial by the year 2026, i.e. within about nine years from now, as discussed in more detail at the extinction page.