Arctic News: sea surface temperature

Showing posts with label sea surface temperature. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

North Hole 2020?

Will there be open water at the North Pole in August 2020?

Above images show, on the left, sea surface temperatures on August 4, 2020, with a forecast on the right for August 9, 2020.

On the image at the left, the center of the Arctic Basin (pale-blue) still has a sea surface temperature below 0°C (or 32°F).

Around that pale-blue area is a blue area where sea surface temperatures are 0 to 2°C (or 32 to 35.6°F).

Seawater will freeze and stay frozen at about −2 °C (28 °F). The sea surface of the Arctic Ocean contains less salt, so the sea ice will stay frozen longer, even as temperatures rise, but it will melt at 0°C (or 32°F).

As the images show, the blue area where sea surface temperatures are at or above 0°C (or 32°F), is encroaching upon the pale-blue area at the center of the Arctic Basin, and appears to reach the North Pole at August 9, 2020.

Hat-tip to Albert Kallio for pointing at this.

Above combination image shows the running twelve-month averages of global-mean (top) and European-mean (bottom) surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to July 2020.

The shape of current anomalies is very similar to the peak reached around 2016. This in itself is alarming and it is even more alarming since the peak around 2016 was reached under El Niño conditions, whereas the July 2020 temperature was reached under ENSO-neutral conditions, as the image below illustrates.

The image below shows surface temperatures as high as 6.1°C or 42.9°F north of Greenland for August 7, 2020, with wind coming from the south-east.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures as high as 2.2°C or 36°F north of Greenland on August 7, 2020.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume, with the black line showing volume in 2020, up to August 12, 2020.

The dramatic decline of the sea ice becomes even more evident when looking at the fall in thickness. The navy.mil animation below was run on August 11, 2020, and shows sea ice thickness over 30 days (last 8 frames are forecasts for August 12 - August 19, 2020).

16°C (or 60.8°F) at northern tip of Greenland

The temperature was 16°C (or 60.8°F) on August 7, 2020, 10:00 am, at Kap Morris Jesup, at the northern tip of Greenland. The lowest temperature at Kap Morris Jesup over the past few days (i.e. from July 27 Jul 1:00 am — August 11, 1:00 am) was 0°C, i.e. on August 6, 2020, 7:00 pm. The average temperature at Kap Morris Jesup over this period was 8°C (or 46.4°F).

Remember that above 0°C, ice will melt. The water temperature of the Arctic Ocean underneath the sea ice is warmer, and this has been melting the sea ice from below. There still is a (rapidly thinning and shrinking) layer of sea ice at the surface of the Arctic Ocean, because until recently, air temperatures had remained low enough to maintain it, while it also takes time for the ice to melt. As long as there is ice, the heat will be consumed by the process of melting - once the ice is gone, temperatures will rise even more rapidly.

Relative humidity over this period was 69%, which means there was quite a bit of rain as well, further speeding up the melting.

The image below shows the ice at the northern tip of Greenland on August 6, 2020.

The image below shows ocean surface temperatures, with very high anomalies showing up where the sea ice has disappeared.

Above image also shows that the Arctic Ocean in many places is very shallow, which means that heat can quickly reach sediments at the seafloor, threatening to destabilize methane hydrates.

Methane levels are very high at the moment, the MetOp-1 sattelite recorded a mean methane level of 1917 ppb at 293 mb on August 4, 2020 pm, with high methane levels visible over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS).

High methane levels were recorded over the Arctic Ocean by the MetOp-1 satellite on the morning of August 8, 2020, at 469 mb.

The situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• Danish Meteorological Institute - 5 Day Ocean Forecast - Universal (Greenwich) Time
http://ocean.dmi.dk/anim/index.uk.php

• Danish Meteorological Institute - sea ice thickness and volume
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume

• Copernicus - Surface air temperature for July 2020
https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2020

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions - August 3, 2020
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Temperature at Kap Morris Jesup, the northern tip of Greenland
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/@3421844/historic

• NASA Worldview image of northern tip of Greenland, August 6, 2020

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

Saturday, September 14, 2019

Critical Tipping Point Crossed In July 2019

In July 2019, a critical tipping point was crossed. July sea surface temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere were 1.07°C above what they were during the 20th century, as illustrated by above image which has a trend added that points at 5°C above the 20th century by 2033.

Why is 1°C above 20th century's temperature such a critical tipping point for the sea surface on the Northern Hemisphere? Let's first take a look at where global heating is going.

Oceans are absorbing over 90% of global heating, as illustrated by above image. Due to the high greenhouse gas levels resulting from people's emissions, oceans keep on getting hotter, and given oceans' huge heat-absorbing capacity, it has taken many years before this tipping point was crossed.

In July 2016, the tipping point was touched at 0.99°C. In July 2017, the July temperature anomaly was on the tipping point, at exactly 1°C. In July 2018, the sea surface was a bit cooler, and the tipping point was crossed in July 2019 when the temperature anomaly was 1.07°C above the 20th century average.

Arctic sea ice used to absorb 0.8% of global heating (in 1993 to 2003). Ocean heat keeps flowing into the Arctic Ocean, carried by ocean currents, as illustrated by above image. As peak heat arrives in the Arctic Ocean, it melts sea ice from below.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures on August 13, 2019 (left) and on September 9, 2019 (right). The light blue line forms a line indicating the sea surface temperature there is 0°C. That light blue line has moved pole-ward in September, due to rivers that kept adding warm water and also due to more warmer water entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

As above image also shows, the sea surface near Svalbard was 20.4°C (or 68.7°F) at the area marked by the green circle on August 13, 2019 (left), and 20.3°C (or 68.5°F) on September 9, 2019 (right), indicating how high the temperature of the water can be underneath the surface, as it moves into the Arctic Ocean. In other words, further ocean heat is still entering the Arctic Ocean.

From mid August 2019, ocean heat could no longer find any sea ice to melt, since the thick sea ice that hangs underneath the surface had already disappeared. A thin layer of sea ice at the surface was all that remained, as air temperatures didn't come down enough to melt it from above.

This indicates that the buffer has gone that has until now been consuming ocean heat as part of the melting process. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat as it melts, so the temperature will not rise at the sea surface. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.

The image below, created with NOAA 2007-2019 June-August sea surface temperature data, shows how extra heating of the sea surface on the Northern Hemisphere from 2012 caused the buffer to disappear and the 1°C tipping point to be crossed in 2019.

Once the buffer is gone, further heat arriving in the Arctic Ocean must go elsewhere.

The image below illustrates the difference in extent between the years, as recorded by ads.nipr.ac.jp. On September 13, 1980, Arctic sea ice extent was 7.77 million km². On September 17, 2019, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.96 million km². On September 16, 2012, extent was 3.18 million million km².

Arctic sea ice will soon be growing in extent, sealing off the water, meaning that less ocean heat will be able to escape to the atmosphere.

This situation comes at a time that methane levels are very high globally. Mean global methane levels were as high as 1911 parts per billion on September 3, 2019, as discussed in a recent post. This post, as well as many earlier posts, also discussed the danger that ocean heat will reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and cause huge methane releases.

Ominously, methane levels at Barrow, Alaska, were very high recently, as illustrated by above image showing methane levels peaking at over 2500 parts per billion. The satellite image below shows the global situation on the afternoon of September 13, 2019, when peak methane levels as high as 2605 ppb were recorded by the MetOp-1 satellite at 586 mb.

In the videos below, Paul Beckwith discusses the situation.

Video 1: What’s up (down) with Arctic Sea-Ice: Extent, Thickness, Volume Dynamics and Thermodynamics

Video 2: New Ice Behaviour Regime for Arctic Sea Ice Melt

Video 3: Is Climate System Internal Variability Significantly Messing with Arctic Sea Ice Demise Predictions?

Video 4: Last Remaining Arctic Sea Ice Will Likely be that Orbiting the North Pole, and NOT Along Coastlines

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Arctic Sea Ice Gone By September 2019?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/arctic-sea-ice-gone-by-september-2019.html

• July 2019 Hottest Month On Record
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/08/july-2019-hottest-month-on-record.html

• Cyclone over Arctic Ocean - August 24, 2019
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/08/cyclone-over-arctic-ocean-august-24-2019.html

• Most Important Message Ever
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html

• Arctic Ocean overheating
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/09/arctic-ocean-overheating.html

Sunday, September 8, 2019

Arctic Ocean overheating

The Arctic Ocean is overheating, as illustrated by above image.

[ from earlier post ]

Heating of the water in the Arctic Ocean is accelerating, as illustrated by above map that uses 4-year smoothing and that shows temperatures in the Arctic that are up to 4.41°C hotter than the average global temperature during 1880-1920.

The NOAA image on the right shows the sea surface temperature difference from 1961-1990 in the Arctic at latitudes 60°N - 90°N on September 7, 2019.

Where Arctic sea ice disappears, hot water emerges on the image, indicating that the temperature of the ocean underneath the sea ice is several degrees above freezing point.

The nullschool.net image on the right shows sea surface temperature differences from 1981-2011 on the Northern Hemisphere on September 8, 2019, with anomalies reaching as high as 15.2°C or 27.4°F (near Svalbard, at the green circle).

Accelerating heating of the Arctic Ocean could make global temperatures skyrocket in a matter of years.

Decline of the sea ice comes with albedo changes and further feedbacks, such as the narrowing temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator, which slows down the speed at which the jet stream circumnavigates Earth and makes the jet stream more wavy.

Disappearance of the sea ice also comes with loss of the buffer that has until now been consuming ocean heat as part of the melting process. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat as it melts, so the temperature will not rise at the sea surface. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. Once the sea ice is gone, further heat must go elsewhere.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The Naval Research Laboratory image on the right shows a forecast for Sep. 8, 2019, run on Sep. 7, 2019, of the thickness of the sea ice. Sea ice has become terribly thin, indicating that the heat buffer constituted by the sea ice has effectively gone. Only a very thin layer of sea ice remains in place throughout much of the Arctic Ocean.

This remaining sea ice is stopping a lot of ocean heat from getting transferred to the air, so the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean is now rising rapidly, with the danger that some of the accumulating ocean heat will reach sediments at the seafloor and cause eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

This situation comes at a time that methane levels are very high globally. Mean global methane levels were as high as 1911 parts per billion on the morning of September 3, 2019, a level recorded by the MetOp-1 satellite at 293 mb (image below).

[ from an earlier post ]

As the image on the right shows, mean global levels of methane (CH₄) have risen much faster than carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), in 2017 reaching, respectively, 257%, 146% and 122% their 1750 levels.

Compared to carbon dioxide, methane is some 150 times as potent as a greenhouse gas during the first few years after release.

Huge releases of seafloor methane alone could make marine stratus clouds disappear, as described in an earlier post, and this clouds feedback could cause a further 8°C global temperature rise.

In total, global heating by as much as 18°C could occur by the year 2026 due to a combination of elements, including albedo changes, loss of sulfate cooling, and methane released from the ocean seafloor.

from an earlier post (2014)

In the image below, from an earlier post, a global warming potential (GWP) of 150 for methane is used. Just the existing carbon dioxide and methane, plus seafloor methane releases, would suffice to trigger the clouds feedback tipping point to be crossed that by itself could push up global temperatures by 8°C, within a few years time, adding up to a total rise of 18°C by 2026.

Progression of heating could unfold as pictured below.

[ from an earlier post ]

In the video below, John Doyle describes out predicament.

Friday, January 25, 2019

Accelerating growth of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

People may not have thought that growth in carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels in the atmosphere would accelerate, when pledges were made in 2015 at the Paris Agreement to take efforts to keep the temperature rise under 1.5°C compared to preindustrial.

Yet, on January 21, 2019, hourly average CO₂ levels well above 414 ppm were recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, the highest levels since such measurements started. A daily average level of 413.86 ppm was recorded on January 22, 2019.

A recent Met Office forecast expects monthly averages to reach a level of 414.7 ppm in May 2019. The forecast expects annual average CO₂ levels at Mauna Loa to be 2.75 ppm higher in 2019 than in 2018. That figure is virtually on the trendline depicted below.

The trend in above image is calculated with NOAA 1959-2017 growth data, with an estimate for 2018 calculated by Sam Carana with NOAA January 2017-November 2018 data (orange dot), and with this Met Office forecast used for 2019 (purple dot).

Strong CO₂ growth is forecast for 2019, due to a number of factors including rising emissions, the added impact of El Niño and less uptake of carbon dioxide by ecosystems. A recent study warns that global warming will enhance both the amplitude and the frequency of eastern Pacific El Niño events and associated extreme weather events. Another recent study warns that, while the terrestrial biosphere now absorbs some 25% of CO₂ emissions by people, the rate of land carbon uptake is likely to fall with reduced soil moisture levels in a warmer world. Furthermore, forest fires will increase as temperatures rise, as soils get more dry and as winds increase in strength, resulting in further increases of CO₂ emissions.

The warming impact of CO₂ can be expected to increase over the next ten years, the more so since the warming impact of CO₂ reaches a peak ten years after emission. In conclusion, CO₂ can cause a global temperature rise of 0.5°C over the next ten years.

Ocean Heat

La Niña has kept much heat in oceans in 2018. Not surprisingly, 2018 was the hottest year for our oceans since global records began in 1958.

As an indication how much heat is contained in the North Atlantic, very high sea surface temperatures did show up recently off the coast of North America, with anomalies on January 23, 2019, as high as 12.6°C or 22.6°F (compared to 1981-2011, green circle on the image on the right).

That day, sea surface temperatures near Svalbard were as high as 18.3°C or 64.9° (green circle, image right). The Gulf Stream carries ocean heat to the Arctic Ocean and it can take a couple of months for this heat to reach the Arctic Ocean and contribute to melting of the sea ice.

So, Arctic sea ice is expected to be invaded by ocean heat from below in 2019, while El Niño will cause high temperatures over the Arctic, melting the sea ice from above.

Furthermore, rivers that end in North America and Siberia can be expected to carry much warm water into the Arctic Ocean.

The image below shows surface air temperature forecasts for February 1, 2019, 15:00 UTC. Low temperatures show up many place on the Northern Hemisphere, such as -44.5°C or -48.2°F in Siberia, -44°C or -47.1°F in Greenland and -40.8°C or -41.4°F near Hudson Bay.

[ NOAA Climate.gov cartoon by Emily Greenhalgh ]

These low temperatures are the result of global warming. As the Arctic warms up faster than the rest of the world, the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator narrows, making the jet stream wavier, thus enabling cold air from the Arctic to descend further south.

As the jet stream gets wavier, more warm air can also enter the Arctic from the south. Above image also shows that surface air temperatures near Svalbard are forecast as high as 5.2°C or 41.4°F, illustrating how warm the air can be close to the North Pole, at a time of year when virtually no sunlight reaches that area.

Furthermore, as oceans get warmer, the temperature difference between land and oceans increases in Winter. This larger temperature difference results in stronger winds that can carry more warm and moist air inland, e.g. into the U.S., as illustrated by the cartoon. Stronger winds can also carry more warm and moist air into the Arctic and can speed up the flow of sea currents, causing warm and salty water to reach the sea ice and speed up its decline.

The sea surface is warming up strongly in this area near Svalbard, as the water underneath the surface of the North Atlantic can be much warmer than the water at the surface, and warm water is coming to the surface in line with a rise in the seafloor in this area, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one.

Methane hydrates

With sea ice at a low, it won't be able to act as a buffer to absorb heat for long. One danger is that, as more heat arrives in the Arctic and as the sea ice melts away, the sea ice will no longer be able to act as a buffer absorbing ocean heat any longer, and ocean heat will instead reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]

Joint impact

[ For details, see the Extinction page ]

The joint impact of all this is terrifying. Ocean heat that reaches sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean can destabilize hydrates, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. This alone can cause a global temperature rise of 1.1°C in a matter of years.

A lot of this has not been accounted for by the IPCC, i.e. the recent increases in CO₂ emissions, increases in methane releases, increases in further emissions such as nitrous oxide and black carbon, albedo changes due to decline in the snow and ice cover and associated changes such as jet stream changes, more permafrost melting and stronger impacts of future El Niño events.

The image on the right shows the joint impact of the warming elements that threaten to eventuate over the next few years and that could result in a rapid 10°C or 18°F global temperature rise by 2026 or even earlier. Keep in mind that global biodiversity will have collapsed once temperatures have risen by 5°C.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.

Links

• Faster CO₂ rise expected in 2019
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2019/2019-carbondioxide-forecast

• Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming, by Wenju Cai et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9

• El Niño events will intensify under global warming, by Yoo-Geun Ham
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07638-w

• Large influence of soil moisture on long-term terrestrial carbon uptake, by Julia Green et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0848-x

• 2018 Continues Record Global Ocean Warming, by Lijing Cheng et al.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-019-8276-x

• Are record snowstorms proof that global warming isn’t happening?
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/are-record-snowstorms-proof-global-warming-isn%E2%80%99t-happening

• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1

• Dangerous situation in Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/11/dangerous-situation-in-arctic.html

• Accelerating Warming of the Arctic Ocean
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/12/accelerating-warming-of-the-arctic-ocean.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

Friday, December 23, 2016

Accelerating Warming of the Arctic Ocean

Stronger Winds causing further Warming of the Arctic Ocean

Warming is accelerating in the Arctic. On December 22, 2016, the Arctic was on average 3.33°C or 5.99°F warmer than it was in 1979-2000.

Within the Arctic, the Arctic Ocean is warming most rapidly. The image below gives a snapshot of the situation on December 22, 2016 at 06:00 UTC. The Arctic as a whole was as much as 3.34°C or 6.01°F warmer than in 1979-2000. At the same time, temperatures over much of the Arctic Ocean were at the top end of the scale, i.e. as much as 30°C or 54°F warmer than in 1979-2000 (pink color at 90°N latitude).

The temperature in the Arctic (north of 80°N Latitude) is also illustrated by the image below. The red line of the temperature for 2016, up to December 22, 2016. The green line is the 1958-2002 temperature.

Over the entire year 2016, warming was most profound over the Arctic Ocean, which was more than 2.5°C or 4.5°F warmer than 1981-2010, as illustrated by the image below.

The animation below illustrates how this anomaly developed over the past few years, each time showing a 365-day period, starting in 2014 and each time shifted by roughly one month.

These high temperatures over the Arctic Ocean reflect warm water of the Arctic Ocean, with heat added from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The image below shows ocean warming, with temperatures rising particularly rapidly on the Northern Hemisphere.

[ Ocean warming, from earlier post ]

Warmer water of the Atlantic Ocean is pushed by the Coriolis force toward the Arctic Ocean. The huge amounts of energy entering the oceans translate not only into higher temperatures of the water and of the air over the water, but also into higher waves and stronger winds.

Above image shows winds on December 29, 2016.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

As above image shows, waves were as high as 7.65 m or 25.1 ft in between Norway and Svalbard on December 29, 2016.

Sea surface temperatures west of Svalbard were as high as 14.6°C (58.2°F) on December 29, 2016. Sea surface temperature went up at the end of December at this spot, while the longer-term average went down in line with the change in seasons.

Underneath the surface of the North Atlantic, the water is much warmer than at the surface, and this temperature difference increases as winds get stronger and cause stronger evaporation, which has a cooling effect on the sea surface. This is illustrated by the image below, showing both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic on November 28, 2016.

The fact that the North Pacific shows a huge cold area, while the cold area in the North Atlantic has virtually disappeared, suggests that the cold area in the North Pacific is not the result of melt-water. The path of the cold areas and the low temperatures over the continents at higher latitudes, give further indications that strong winds are causing such cold areas. The image below shows that a cold area reappearing in the North Atlantic as it gets hit by strong winds (see video further below).

Above images and the image below, from an earlier post, illustrate how stronger evaporation and the resulting precipitation, at times in combination with melt-water, could create cold freshwater lids on both the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. The situation in the North Atlantic is very dangerous, as such a lid can cause much more heat to get carried into the Arctic Ocean underneath the sea surface of the North Atlantic, due to reduced heat transfer to the atmosphere from water on its way to the Arctic Ocean.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows the depth of Barents Sea, which is relatively shallow around Svalbard.

As the image on the right shows, this spot warms up due to a sea current that brings warm water from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean.

Above images give an indication of the temperature of the water in the Atlantic Ocean underneath the sea surface, as the water comes to the surface near Svalbard, as also illustrated by the plot on the right.

The Arctic Ocean is now warming underneath the sea ice due to the inflow of warm water from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

The Arctic Ocean is also warming due to feedbacks such as increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere, warmer river water running into the Arctic Ocean and soot from wildfires that can settle on snow and ice, resulting in further albedo changes.

Further feedbacks of global warming include warmer air temperatures, higher waves and stronger winds that all speed up the demise of snow and ice.

Stronger winds are pushing warm water from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean. Why are these winds getting stronger? As the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the world, the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Equator decreases, making the Jet Stream wavier, with longer loops extending to the north and to the south. At the same time, the temperature difference between the oceans and the continents (Europe, Asia and North America) is increasing, speeding up the Jet Stream as it travels, e.g., over the North Atlantic towards the Arctic Ocean.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above 14.6°C SST on December 29, 2016, near Svalbard is the result of warm water being pushed from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean. The situation is illustrated by the above combination image that shows that the Jet stream is forecast to reach speeds as high as 319 km/h or 198 mph in between North America and Greenland on December 31, 2016 (left panel). At the same time, surface winds are forecasts to reach speeds as high as 95 km/h or 59 mph (center panel) and waves as high as 8.96 m or 29.4 ft in between Norway and Svalbard (right panel).

The situation is further illustrated by the video below, showing winds over the North Atlantic from December 27, 2016 to January 3, 2017, as forecasts by cci-reanalyzer.org.

The fact that this is not a one-off event is also illustrated by the image on the right, showing that the Jet Stream reached speeds of 384 km/h or 239 mph over the Pacific Ocean on December 27, 2015. At the same day and time in 2015, the Jet Stream reached speeds as high as 430 km/h or 267 mph as it moved over North America on its way over the North Atlantic.

In conclusion, increasingly stronger winds are causing huge amounts of heat to enter the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic, and also from the Pacific Ocean. As the water of the Arctic Ocean keeps warming, the danger increases that methane hydrates at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean will destabilize.

The danger is illustrated by the two images above and below, recorded by the MetOp2 satellite on the afternoon of Christmas eve and Christmas.

Continued warming could trigger huge abrupt methane eruptions leading to mass destruction and extinction.

Potential warming by more than 10°C or 18°F by 2026 (from: Climate Plan Summary, see also: the extinction page)

The image below shows the associated temperature rise from preindustrial to 2026, with figures discussed in more detail on the Temperature page.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described at the Climate Plan.

Two videos complement this. Have a look at the video entitled Abrupt Climate Disrupting Arctic Changes: Part 2 of 2 by Paul Beckwith, in particular the segment from 8:30 to 12:00 minutes where Paul discusses how wind patterns are changing over the Arctic.

For further thoughts on the situation, also have a look at the video below in which Jennifer Hynes interviews Peter Wadhams.