Pursuing efforts?

Late last year at the Paris Agreement, nations pledged to hold the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. On 5 October 2016, the threshold for entry into force of the Paris Agreement was achieved. The Paris Agreement will formally enter into force on 4 November 2016.

Meanwhile, as illustrated by above image, temperatures have been more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for nine out of the past twelve months. For the months February and March 2016, the anomaly was actually quite close to the 2°C guardrail, while for station-only measurements, warming for February and March 2016 was well over the 2°C guardrail from pre-industrial levels.

The monthly warming in above image was calculated by using the NASA Global Monthly Mean Surface Temperature Change data (Land+Ocean) from 1880 through to September 2016, while adding 0.28°C to cater for the rise from 1900 to 1951-1980, and additionally adding 0.3°C to cater for the rise from pre-industrial to 1900.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

The 0.28°C adjustment (to cater for the rise from 1900 to 1951-1980) is illustrated by above graph, which has a polynomial trend added to the NASA Global Monthly Mean Surface Temperature Change (Land+Ocean) data from January 1880 through to September 2016.

As said, the top image has a further 0.3°C added to cater for the rise from pre-industrial to 1900, as discussed in an earlier post.

Above image shows sea surface temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere, with a polynomial trend pointing at a doubling of ocean warming within one decade. Warming of the sea surface on the Northern Hemisphere threatens to speed up Arctic sea ice loss, as the Gulf Stream pushes ever warmer water toward the Arctic Ocean.

In addition, warming of the air over the Arctic Ocean occurs faster than elsewhere on Earth, as illustrated by above image and by the animation on the right.

This further speeds up the demise of the snow and ice cover, as illustrated by the images below.

Arctic sea ice extent on October 20, 2016, was at a record low for the time of the year, at only 6.15 million square km, as measured by the National Institute of Polar Research in Japan.

The images below show Arctic sea ice extent as measured by NSIDC.org (left) and average Arctic sea ice extent (year to date, October 20, 2016), from a post by Torstein Viðdalr (right).

Average Arctic sea ice extent for the period October 22, 2015 to October 20, 2016 (blue line) was lower than it was for any other 365-day period since 1978, when satellites first started measuring sea ice extent.

The images below show Arctic sea ice thickness as measured by the National Institute of Polar Research in Japan (left) and as measured by the Naval Research Laboratory (right, new model).

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Albert Kallio comments (in italics):
ARCTIC OCEAN SEA ICE GROWTH STOPS DUE TO HEAT BARRIER
The rapid growth of the sea ice has stopped because during the summer the surrounding ocean accumulated so much heat that it cannot yet freeze. Whilst the central Arctic Ocean around the North Pole saw a very rapid freezing as its broken sea ice cover quickly fused together in cold, autumn darkness breaking new records, it now has suddenly hit the opposite: a new all time record low for sea ice area for this time of season. This is because the ocean is still too warm for water to freeze around edges of the Arctic Ocean leading to all-time record low ice area that fell below or is at least in par with year 2012 low (the last record low ice year).

The image below (Arctic on the left, Antarctic on the right) was created by Daniel Kieve.

Daniel Kieve comments (in italics):
Both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice are now at record low extent for this time of year according to NSIDC data, with the Arctic sea ice over 2 million square kilometres lower than the average extent for 20th October. The Antarctic sea ice is at 2 standard deviations below the (30 year) average. At this time of year it's usually a time of rapid ice growth in the Arctic but it's stalled due to the continuance of anomalously warm air in parts of the Arctic and in particular the record warmth in the oceans that is encroaching more and more into the Arctic. This means next Summer the Arctic ice is more vulnerable than ever to collapse as the insolation reaches its peak in June and July.

Demise of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic further accelerates warming of the Arctic Ocean in a number of ways. Decline of sea ice extent makes that less sunlight gets reflected back into space and instead gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean. Similarly, the decline of the snow and ice cover on land in the Arctic makes that more sunlight gets absorbed on land, which in turn make that warmer water from rivers flows into the Arctic Ocean. For more feedbacks, see the feedbacks page.

There's a growing danger is that further warming of the Arctic Ocean will trigger huge eruptions of methane from its seafloor. Ominously, on October 20, 2016, methane levels were as high as 2559 parts per billion, as illustrated by the image below, which also shows high methane levels over large parts of the Arctic Ocean.

The temperature rise resulting from such feedbacks has the potential to cause in mass extinctions (including humans) and destruction over the coming decade, as discussed at the extinction page.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• How Much Warming Have Humans Caused?
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/how-much-warming-have-humans-caused.html

• NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• 81 Parties have ratified of 197 Parties to the Convention
http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php

• Paris Agreement
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf

August 2016 another month above Paris Agreement guardrail

[ click on images to enlarge ]

August 2016 was the warmest August in 136 years of modern record-keeping, according to a NASA news release and as illustrated by the image on the right.

The seasonal cycle makes that temperature typically peaks in July. Nonetheless, August 2016 wound up tied with July 2016 for the warmest month ever recorded.

So, when incorporating the seasonal cycle, it was more than 2°C or 3.6°F warmer in July and August 2016 than it used to be.

It's important to compare the temperature rise with preindustrial levels, given that end last year at the Paris Agreement countries pledged to keep temperatures from rising by more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. NASA typically calculates anomalies by comparing temperatures with the period from 1951 to 1980, so without adjustment and without including seasonal cycle, the picture looks like the one below.

The added polynomial trendline shows that the anomaly grows, when comparing the temperature rise with an period that goes back further. On the image below, a 0.28°C adjustment is applied to the data, to bring the baseline back to the year 1900.

Going back further than 1900 will result in even higher anomalies, as illustrated by the image below that applies a 0.58°C adjustment to cater for the rise before 1951-1980, as discussed in an earlier post, resulting in an August 2016 anomaly of 1.56°C.

As above image also shows, temperatures have been more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for most of the past 12 months.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• Climate Plan
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• How Much Warming Have Humans Caused?
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/how-much-warming-have-humans-caused.html

• NASA Analysis Finds August 2016 Another Record Month
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/20160912

2016 Heat Felt Around Globe

created by Sam Carana with JAXA image

Above image shows that 2016 Arctic sea ice extent has been very low, if not at record low, up to April 30, 2016. This situation doesn't appear likely to improve, due to high ocean heat causing melting from below and high air temperatures that cause melting from above and that also cause water to warm up in rivers ending up in the Arctic Ocean.

The image below shows that on April 28, 2016, sea surface off the coast of North America was as much as 12.3°C or 22.1°F warmer than in 1981-2011. The Gulf Stream will make that much of this heat will arrive in the Arctic Ocean over the next few months.

The image below compares April 30 sea surface temperature anomalies between 2015 (left panel) and 2016 (right panel), showing that the sea surface in many areas is warmer in 2016 than it was in 2015.

Next to sea surface temperatures, air temperatures are rising, as illustrated by the image on the right, showing temperatures over Alaska as high as 14.6°C or 58.4°F at 64.5°N and as high as 10.8°C or 51.4°F at 66.5°N on May 1, 2016. Such rising temperatures over land will warm up rivers that will in turn warm up the Arctic Ocean.

The Google reference map below shows a large part of the Arctic Ocean, including Alaska on the left and the Beaufort Sea at the bottom. The map has an added red square inset that indicates the outlines of the map further below, which zooms in further on the Beaufort Sea.

The April 26, 2016, NASA map below shows that, while it is in places still relatively thick, the sea ice in the Beaufort Sea is strongly fractured with much water showing up in the fractures, and even more water along the coast.

Worryingly, high methane peaks have been recorded recently, as high as 2810 ppb on April 29, 2016, as illustrated by the image below, showing a large area with high methane levels east of Greenland.

Meanwhile, the heatwave in South-East Asia continues, with temperatures as high as 49°C or 120.1°F recorded on April 27, 2016, as illustrated by the image on the right.

As the image below shows, temperatures do not appear to be coming down, with temperatures as high as 49.4°C or 120.8°F forecast to hit India on May 2, 2016 (at the location marked by the green circle).

As global warming continues, this will make humidity levels rise. A 3°C warming will cause about 25% increase in absolute humidity, which will make it feel at least 6°C hotter. Moreover, water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, further accelerating global warming.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.

March temperature

Above image shows Land-Ocean (in red) and Land-only (in black) global monthly temperature anomalies compared to the average over the period 1951-1980.

At the Paris Agreement, nations committed to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

To see how much temperatures have risen compared to pre-industrial levels, a comparison with the period 1951-1980 does not give the full picture. The image below, created by selecting a smoothing radius of 1200 km, shows that the global temperature rise from 1890-1910 was 1.58°C or 2.84°F.

The temperature rise is even higher when looking at measurements from land-only stations. The image below compares the March 2016 temperature with the period from 1890-1910 (250 km smoothing), showing a Land-only anomaly of 2.42°C or 4.36°F.

Taking into account that temperatures had already risen by some 0.3°C (0.54°F) before 1900, this adds up to a total temperature rise on land in March 2016 of 2.72°C (4.9°F) from the start of the industrial revolution.

On the Northern Hemisphere, there was an even more dramatic temperature rise on land. In March 2016, on land on the Northern Hemisphere, it was 4.9°F or 2.72°C warmer than the 20th century average, as illustrated by the image below.

How much of this rise can be attributed to El Niño? One way to answer this question is by adding a polynomial trend, as in the March Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly image below, showing that temperatures had already risen by 2°C in March 2015, while pointing at a rise of 4°C by March 2030 and 10°C before the year 2050.

The trendline also shows that a temperature difference of about half a degree Celsius between the 20th century average and the year 1900. Taking into account that temperatures had already risen by some 0.3°C (0.54°F) before 1900, this adds up to a total temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere in March 2016 of 3.52°C or 6.34°F from the start of the industrial revolution.

NOAA data show that in March 2016, it was 2.33°C or 4.19°F warmer on land globally than the 20th century average. When compared to temperatures around the year 1900, it was even warmer.

In February 2016, NASA data show that it was 2.33°C or 4.19°F warmer on land (with 1200 km smoothing) than it was in 1890-1910, while it was 2.48°C or 4.46°F warmer for a 250 km smoothing radius for the land-only data. In an earlier post, a 2.3°C rise in February 2016 was used as one of several elements making up the total rise that could eventuate on land by the year 2026, assuming that no geoengineering will take place (image below).

Meanwhile, the current El Niño is still going strong and causing very high temperatures, making one wonder how high temperatures will be during the next El Niño, which could eventuate a decade or less from now. The image below shows high temperatures at four locations in South-East Asia on April 20, 2016.



The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Arctic Winter Heatwave

The Arctic is experiencing a heatwave in winter, with temperature anomalies on February 23, 2016, averaging 7.84°C or 14.11°F higher than what was common 1979-2000.

The forecast for 6:00 UTC on February 23, 2016, shows an anomaly of 8.17°C or 14.71°F.

Temperatures in January 2016 over the Arctic Ocean were 7.3°C (13.1°F) higher than in 1951-1980, according to NASA data, as illustrated by the graph on the right, from an earlier post.

These high temperatures go hand in hand with sea ice extent that is much lower for this time of year than since records started.

As discussed in an earlier post, low sea ice extent is fueling fears that this year's maximum extent was already reached on February 9, 2016.

A much higher ocean temperature is behind both the low sea ice extent and the high temperature anomalies.

Ocean temperatures are particularly high where the Gulf Stream pushes water from Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below that compares sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic between the years 2015 and 2016 for February 22nd.

This spells bad news for the sea ice in 2016, since El Niño is still going strong and ocean temperature keeps rising, as illustrated by the NOAA global ocean temperature anomalies graph for January below.

 The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

ARCTIC WINTER HEATWAVE The Arctic is experiencing a heatwave in winter, with temperature anomalies on February 23,...
Posted by Sam Carana on Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Arctic sea ice area at record low for time of year

Arctic sea ice area on January 28, 2016, was only 12.17902 million square km. At this time of year, sea ice area hasn't been as low as this for at least since satellite records started in 1979, as illustrated by the image below.

based on image from: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Furthermore, on January 29, 2016, Arctic sea ice reached its second lowest extent since the satellite records began, as the image below shows.

based on image from: nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

Why is sea ice at record low?

The sea ice is in a bad shape due to very high temperatures. A forecast for January 30, 2016, shows surface temperatures over the Arctic that are 2.7°C (4.86°F) warmer than they were in 1979-2000. The image below further illustrates this, showing temperature anomalies at the top end of the scale, i.e. 20°C (36°F) above 1979-2000, in many places in the Arctic.

At this time of year, there is very little sunshine in the Arctic. Therefore, these anomalies are caused by sea water that is warmer than it used to be. The image below shows that on January 24, 2016, sea surface temperature was 12.3°C (54.2°F) at a location near Svalbard marked by the green circle, a 10.4°C (18.7°F) anomaly.

Such anomalies are in turned caused by water that is much warmer than it used to be, and that is being carried by the Gulf Stream all the way into the Arctic Ocean.

Water much warmer off the North American coast

The water off the coast of North America is much warmer than it used to be due to emissions that extend from North America over the Atlantic Ocean due to the Coriolis effect. The image below, from an earlier post, shows carbon dioxide levels as high as 511 ppm over New York on November 5, 2015, and as high as 500 ppm over the water off the coast of coast of New Jersey on November 2, 2015.

from the post: 2015 warmest year on record

As discussed at an earlier post, also relevant are other emissions such as carbon monoxide that depletes hydroxyl, making it harder for methane to be oxidized. Below is an update on carbon monoxide levels.

These emissions heat up the Gulf Stream and make that ever warmer water is carried underneath the sea surface all the way into the Arctic Ocean, while little heat transfer occurs from ocean to atmosphere, due to the cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic.

Arctic sea ice in uncharted territory

Update 1: For the time of the year, Arctic sea ice is now at a record low since satellite records started in 1979, both for area and extent. The image below shows Arctic sea ice area up to February 1, 2016, when area was 12.27298 million square km.

based on image from: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

The image below shows Arctic sea ice extent up to February 2, 2016, when extent was 13.932 million square km.

based on image from: nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

Update 2: For the time of the year, Arctic sea ice remains at a record low since satellite records started in 1979, both for area and extent. The image below shows Arctic sea ice area up to February 4, 2016, when area was 12.30656 million square km.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Comprehensive and effective action is needed

This situation spells bad news for what will happen later in 2016, also given the current El Niño. Less sea ice means that less sunlight is reflected back into space, resulting in more heat being absorbed by the Arctic Ocean.

As more heat reaches the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, the risk increases that heat will penetrate and destabilize sediments containing methane hydrates. Methane escaping from hydrates could strongly accelerate warming in the Arctic, causing further melting of the sea ice, in a spiral of warming that could escalate into runaway warming.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.


Related posts

- Why America should lead on climate
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/01/why-america-should-lead-on-climate.html

- Sea surface warmest on record
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/10/september-2015-sea-surface-warmest-on-record.html

- Climate Plan
arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/plan.html

- 2015 warmest year on record
arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/12/2015-warmest-year-on-record.html

Arctic sea ice area on January 28, 2016, was only 12.17902 million square km. At this time of year, sea ice area hasn't...
Posted by Sam Carana on Sunday, January 31, 2016

2015 warmest year on record

1.1°C or 34.1°F at the North Pole

The year 2015 is shaping up to be the warmest year on record. In the media, a lot of attention has been given to the many floods, droughts, wildfires and heatwaves that have battered the world this year.

Sadly, though, little attention is given to the situation in the Arctic. The image on the right shows a forecast for December 30, 2015, with temperatures at the North Pole above freezing point, as further illustrated by the nullschool.net image below, showing a temperature forecast of 1.1°C or 34.1°F for the North Pole. Wind speed at the North Pole is forecast to be 105 mph or 168 km/h on December 30, 2015, and 133 mph or 215 km/h closer to Svalbard.

As the image below illustrates, very high temperatures are forecast to hit the Arctic Ocean on December 30, 2015.

Above image shows temperature anomalies at the highest end of the scale for most of the Arctic Ocean, with a temperature anomaly for the Arctic as a whole of 2.4°C or 4.32°F above what was common in 1979-2000. The situation isn't likely to improve soon. For January 3, 2016, the temperature in the Arctic is forecast to be as much as 4.56°C or 8.21°F warmer.

How is it possible for such high temperatures to occur over the Arctic Ocean? The image below shows how the year 2015 is shaping up in terms of temperature anomalies.

Global warming is felt most strongly in the Arctic as warming continues, as illustrated by above image and by the image on the right.

Warming in the Arctic is accelerating due to feedbacks. One of these feedbacks is the way the jet streams are changing. Changes in the jet streams are becoming more prominent as the Arctic is warming up more rapidly than the rest of the world.

jet streams

As the difference in temperature between the Arctic and the equator becomes smaller, the speed at which the jet stream circumnavigates the globe is decreasing and jet streams become more wavy.

Meanwhile, most of the extra heat caused by global warming goes into the oceans, and the Atlantic Ocean is warming up fast. At the same time, meltwater is accumulating at the surface of the North Atlantic, lowering sea surface temperatures there. With such large differences between high temperatures over North America and lower temperatures over the North Atlantic, the speed of the jet stream between those places can increase dramatically.

The result is that huge amounts of warm air are being pushed high into the Arctic. The image on the right shows the jet streams on December 27, 2015, when speeds as high as 263 mph or 424 km/h were reached at the location marked by the green circle. Also note the jet streams crossing the Arctic at the top of the image, while crossing the equator at the bottom of the image.

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere in November.

For over a month now, storms over the North Atlantic have been pushing hot air high up into the Arctic. The video below uses surface wind content by Climate Reanalyzer (selected daily averages and sequences of forecasts) to cover the period from December 5, 2015, to January 8, 2016.

Best wishes for 2016

Above video stops at January 8, 2016, when two cyclones are visible, one in the North Atlantic and another one over the North Pacific, prompting me to create the image on the right.

What causes these storms to grow this strong? Waters keeps warming up dramatically off the east coast of North America. Emissions from North America tend to extend over these waters, due to the Coriolis effect, and this contributes to their extreme warming.

The image below shows carbon dioxide levels as high as 511 ppm over New York on November 5, 2015, and as high as 500 ppm over the water off the coast of coast of New Jersey on November 2, 2015. 

Emissions contribute to warmer waters - click to enlarge

The top panel of the image on the right shows that on December 11, 2015, carbon dioxide levels were as high as 474 ppm (parts per million, surface concentration) at the location marked by the green circle in New York.

The bottom panel of the image on the right shows that the water off the coast was warmer by as much as 10.3°C or 18.5°F at the location marked by the green circle on December 11, 2015.

The NASA video below shows carbon dioxide emissions over the year 2006.

It's not just CO2 off the North American coast that contributes to further warming of the Gulf Stream, many other emissions do so, including methane, CO, etc. Carbon monoxide (CO) is not a greenhouse gas, but it depletes hydroxyl, thus preventing oxidation of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas. The animation below shows a carbon monoxide level at green circle of 528 ppb on December 28, 2015, 0900z, while the sea surface temperature anomaly there was 15.8°F or 8.8°C on that day. 

Carbon monoxide reached much higher levels recently over land, as illustrated by the image below that shows a CO level of 2077 ppb in New York on January 6, 2016. 

These emissions heat up the Gulf Stream and make that ever warmer water is carried underneath the sea surface all the way into the Arctic Ocean, while little heat transfer occurs from ocean to atmosphere, due to the cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic.

feedback #28 at the feedback page

The image on the right shows that it was warmer by as much as 9.6°C or 17.2°F near Svalbard on December 25, 2015, at the location marked by the green circle. The same anomalies were recorded on December 26, 2015, when the temperature of the water there was 11°C or 51.9 °F.

This gives an indication of how warm the water is that is being pushed underneath the sea surface into the Arctic Ocean.

Strong winds and high waves can cause more sea ice to be pushed along the edges of Greenland out of the Arctic Ocean, into the Atlantic ocean, expanding the cold freshwater lid on the North Atlantic, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop.

The image below shows the impact of these storms on sea ice speed and drift on December 31, 2015 (left) and a forecast for January 8, 2016 (right).

The danger is that, as warmer water reaches the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, it will increasingly destabilize sediments that can contain huge amounts of methane in the form of free gas and hydrates.

Methane levels over the Arctic Ocean are already very high. Above image shows methane levels as high as 2745 ppb over the Arctic Ocean on January 2, 2016. High releases from the Arctic Ocean seafloor are pushing up methane levels higher in the atmosphere, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

So, while the extreme weather events that have occurred in the year 2015 are frightening, even more terrifying is the way the water of the Arctic Ocean is warming up. Sadly, this is rarely even discussed in the media. So, let's once more add the image below that should have been given more media attention.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described at the Climate Plan.