GM: We are delighted to have the inimitable Sam Carana on today’s show. We submitted written questions to Carana and went back-and-forth a couple times to pursue follow-up questions. Our frequent guest, Pauline Schneider, will be supplying the voice of Dr. Carana. You can find Carana’s blog at Arctic hyphen news dot blogspot dot com. Dr. Carana posts anonymously about abrupt, irreversible climate change. To preserve her anonymity, we will refer to her as female, Sam, and Dr. Carana. A caveat is in order: In doing so, we are acknowledging our respect for Carana’s work, and we are not indicating Carana’s credentials or gender. Dr. Carana, welcome to Nature Bats Last on the Progressive Radio Network.
SC: Pleasure to be with you.
1. GM: How long have you been disseminating information about abrupt climate change to the public under the Sam Carana moniker?
1. SC: I've been worried about abrupt global warming for a long time and as time went by, I only became more worried about it. I was stunned to see that, when Hurricane Katrina hit the U.S. in 2005, little action followed on climate change.
If I had to pick a year when I became particularly active on abrupt climate change, it would be 2007. I wrote a post in early 2007 with the title ‘ten dangers of global warming’. I mentioned tipping points and the possibility that global warming could drive humans into extinction, in particular as more animals and plants that humans depend on would disappear.
In 2007, I also wrote ‘Ten recommendations to deal with global warming’. I started more blogs and groups that year, partly as an inventory and partly as a way to encourage discussion. In 2007, I also started to recommend local feebates as the best way to make a difference.
In September 2007, I was shocked to see Arctic sea ice fall to a record low. At that time, I was also looking at how much methane there is in the Arctic Ocean. In those days, few people were worried about loss of Arctic sea ice, let alone that they were worried about eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean or that they were making links between the two.
2. GM: Why do you provide this information anonymously?
2. SC: If anonymous means that no author name is added, then I am doing the opposite. I actually do like to add the name Sam Carana when I create content, and I also like to add links to sources. That makes it easy to find things back, to see in what context they were used, etc.
But I understand what you mean, I don’t like to add further details, because I want people to focus on the message, rather than on the person who happens to be carrying the message. Adding personal details can result in diversions that can in turn delay the necessary action.
Also, I do welcome discussion. When I post on facebook, people can easily comment and make suggestions, and this can lead to changes in the content that can be made quickly, often instantly. Communication can be quick and direct, I mean it’s easy to take part in discussions on facebook, there’s no need to go through bureaucratic processes or to be wealthy or to be part of an elite or a privileged group, so that makes it more democratic.
3. GM: Why do you do provide this information?
3. SC: How could I not want to share this? It's the most important issue we're all facing and it’s getting very little attention, which makes it self-obvious for me to present the information in the way I do, quickly, concisely, and with links that point at sources, and witout diversions and without distractions.
That’s also why I share information on a free blog, without asking fees and without advertising. If you care about the message, then you want people to hear about it, so you don’t need to get paid to share the message, and you want to reach people without hurdles or diversions.
This is something that affects everyone, so the reasons to share it are contained in the message. I feel compelled to share what worries me, after all, it’s the most important message ever posted and there is so much urgency to act on the unfolding catastrophe which could soon leave us no time or room to act at all.
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4. S.C.: That's the threat if things keep going as they are now, Earth will become similar to Venus.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html
5. GM: You rarely submit to interviews. Why did you agree to join us in this on-air conversation?
5. SC: Just like you, I like to look at the bigger picture. Our conclusions are based on scientific findings and we clearly reference those findings and add links to original sources. And we both have to conclude that there are huge threats; threats of such a magnitude, severity and imminence that they make me think: "This should be frontpage news every day!"
Yet, what happens is this: Events are downplayed in the media or they get little or no attention at all. This has now been going on for well over a decade, even as the problems are escalating before our very own eyes. We're all demanding honesty on issues of this importance.
So, it feels good to be among people who do see the importance of such issues and events, and who are familiar enough with them, as well as with my posts, to seriously discuss things and comment on my work, so I do look forward to this conversation.
6. KH: Have you noticed any evidence of climate-change research data being tampered with?
6. SC: Not so much tampering with data, but what I see a lot is misrepresentation of the data, downplaying of the implications or simply ignoring things altogether. Most people will never look into the data, many only read headlines of news reports, or not even that.
Politicians have also blocked a lot of research that could have provided precious data that we now lack. This has contributed to the dire situation we’re in now, and there still are few data on, say, methane releases in the Arctic. What is also lacking is research into possible action to improve the situation. I have long suggested that politicians who inadequately act on the unfolding climate catastrophe should be brought before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands.
7. SC: One of the biggest dangers I see is that a cool freshwater lid is growing on top of the surface of the North atlantic, near the Arctic Ocean, and that this is sealing off hot water underneath the sea surface from the atmosphere. Slowing down of AMOC will result in an increasing amount of hot water accumulating underneath the surface. As storms grow stronger, chances increase that a sudden inflow of hot salty water will enter the Arctic Ocean and reach sediments at the seafloor that contain huge amounts of methane.
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8. SC: Politicians and news media are often ignoring the temperature rise, or downplaying the dangers. Instead, the precautionary principle should be applied, and this should be applied on three dimensions to issues such as methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.
The first dimension is a matter of magnitude and severity. A vast amount of methane is held in sediments. If just a tiny part of this methane will erupt, this could wipe out humanity, if not make all life on Earth go extinct, due to the huge immediate global warming potential of methane, and due to the numerous feedbacks.
The second dimension is probability. Methane hydrates destabilize as temperature rises. So, as temperatures continue to rise, the likelihood grows that such eruptions of methane will occur.
The third dimension is imminence. The longer we wait, the more urgent the threat becomes, as the temperature rise doesn't wait for us.
9. FINAL QUESTION, GM: How would you like to see humanity respond to the predicament of abrupt, irreversible climate change?
9. SC: I like everyone to take a good look at how dire the situation is, and to act with integrity and compassion. The Climate Plan that I recommend focuses on government action and prefers implementation through local feebates. Here are the Ten Principles behind the Climate Plan:
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The second dimension is probability. Methane hydrates destabilize as temperature rises. So, as temperatures continue to rise, the likelihood grows that such eruptions of methane will occur.
The third dimension is imminence. The longer we wait, the more urgent the threat becomes, as the temperature rise doesn't wait for us.
from the post
9. FINAL QUESTION, GM: How would you like to see humanity respond to the predicament of abrupt, irreversible climate change?
9. SC: I like everyone to take a good look at how dire the situation is, and to act with integrity and compassion. The Climate Plan that I recommend focuses on government action and prefers implementation through local feebates. Here are the Ten Principles behind the Climate Plan:
- The precautionary principle, which should be applied broadly and on three dimensions, as I pointed out before. So, regarding severity, probability and imminence. This should lead to action, not inaction, and such action should aim to reduce the dangers.
- Relevance. The media often ignore climate change and seek to divert attention to trivial matters. In my posts, I deliberately point at issues that are often overlooked or downplayed, yet that can be extremely relevant in regard to climate change, especially from the perspective of the precautionary principle. In posts, I typically conclude that the situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action.
- Science. Where there is doubt, science-based analysis should be undertaken, and this should include more scientific research where needed. Research should be relevant and to the point, it should continue on an ongoing basis, and it should incorporate the importance of the precautionary principle. Where more scientific research is needed, this should not be interpreted as a reason to delay action, as that would violate the precautionary principle.
- Healthcare workers typically pledge to “do no harm”. Politicians at the Paris Agreement also pledged to avoid harm. Again, this principle should not be interpreted as a reason to remain passive and to delay action. The precautionary principle makes it imperative for action to be taken, so I like to go one step further and interpret this principle as ‘Health is good!’
- Global agreement, local implementation. It’s great to have global agreement, but implementation can best take place locally. Each community should reach each of their targets independently and genuinely (i.e. without buying or fabricating offsets or credits domestically or abroad). If not, action from government in the respective area and beyond should follow.
- Democracy. Each individual should take responsibility, and be given that responsibility. This means people need to be well-informed and made conscious of their responsibility. Where people still don’t bother to act responsibly, local feebates can help everyone becoming effective in combatting climate change.
- Open information. Share information to enable people to make decisions. I like to make people think. I welcome discussion. Unlike politicians who take decisions out of the hands of people, I like people to decide for themselves and I like that to be a well-informed and thought-through decision.
- Money should not overrule our lives. We should not trade away our principles. Feebates do not necessarily have to be financial. For example, if a local council adds extra fees to rates for land where soil carbon falls, while using all the revenues for rebates on rates for land where soil carbon rises, then biochar effectively becomes the currency that can help improve the soil's fertility, its ability to retain water and to support more vegetation. That way, real assets are built.
- The pre-eminence of principle. While it would be nice if there will be a good outcome, we should base our actions on principle. We should act because it is the right thing to do.
- Open mind. Be prepared for the unexpected. Be prepared to change your mind, if needed. Keep discussing and reconsidering these principles. I’ve learned that there still is a lot to be learned and discovered.
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Thank you Sam for your contribution and for sharing this!
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