Thursday, December 19, 2013


=  =  =  STATEMENT FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE  =  =  =  NEWS RELEASE  =  =  =  DATE: DECEMBER 18, 2013  =  =  =


The Greenhouse Gases that human civilisation has emitted have warmed the Arctic more than any other area on Earth.

The reasons for this are well known and will not be repeated here. This has resulted in a loss of sea ice especially in the late summer. More recently still Methane has started to be released from Methane Hydrates especially from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). Emissions of Methane from this area increased from 8 to 17 Tg (teragrams or megaton) between 2009 and 2012 according to research done by Natalia Shakhova and in 2013 appear to be about 22 Tg.

My understanding is that the climate research organisations broadly accept that Methane emissions from the ESAS have risen substantially in the last few years, as indicated above, and are a serious concern, but they are still small compared to total global emissions of Methane and they do not accept that they will runaway in the near future. This needs examination.

The warming of the Arctic seems likely to lead to the total melting of the Arctic Sea Ice in late summer no later than the summer of 2018 and to massive release of Methane from the melting of Methane Hydrates beneath the ESAS by the same date leading to runaway Global Warming and the end of most life on earth. In 2018, and probably before, the Arctic will be much warmer and the rate of Methane emissions by 2016 will cause alarm worldwide. In 2016 it will probably no longer be possible to prevent a runaway greenhouse event. The problem is that until after a runaway event has started, drastic climate impacts will not occur, so most people will not be alarmed by the situation. Nonetheless, immediate action is essential to cool the arctic.

The reason for this is that the ice is melting earlier in summer than has been the case for several millennia, because of Arctic Warming caused by the increased concentration of Greenhouse Gases in the atmosphere. Methane is still being released in relatively small quantities from Methane Hydrates beneath the ESAS now, but this will accelerate rapidly as Methane concentrations increase in the arctic atmosphere, since they will absorb more sunlight and warm the Arctic, causing further Methane releases.

Arctic Methane Impact
Humanity may be able to prevent this from occurring, if drastic action is taken almost immediately, but if we don’t react then this will very rapidly become a runaway Greenhouse Event and out of our control. We must drastically reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions and take action to cool the arctic.

It is essential that your government responds to this emergency by publicising this worldwide and by trying to obtain a global agreement to drastically reduce global Greenhouse Gas emissions and to cool the Arctic.

John B Davies (personal)

This statement is supported by:
Prof. Peter Wadhams, Sam Carana, Paul Beckwith, Malcolm Light, John Nissen, Albert Kallio
Annie Mond, Carl Vilbrandt,

N.B. The truth of this prognosis should rapidly become apparent by measuring Methane emissions and concentration in the Arctic atmosphere in 2014. Thus very closely measuring arctic Methane emissions and atmospheric concentration is essential in 2014 and thereafter.

If you like to have your name added in support, please comment at the facebook post below.


  1. Tell me I'm the first one to comment. I thought there would be recommendations for actjve intervention strategy, not simply a failed strategy of appeals to government leaders. In my country the politics are designed to protect the right to say "no." What is now required is massive cultural change at an absolutely unprecedented rate. We cannot seen to cut the cost of living adjustment for one of the very BEST retirement plans two years in the future by a measly 1% without sparking more politcal misinformation and posturing than this crisis is likely to spawn until it is absolutely too late for anything we might be able to mobilize to have any meaningful effect.

    1. I think John Davies worked hard to formulate the statement in a way acceptable to most people, to get governments to agree and to get the widest possible support. Personally, I recommend action such as described at the climate plan blog.

  2. (Assuming frame change to world power is allowed by Shadow government of the Corporate banking Conglomerate)
    Then it is possible change can happen and won't be
    scuttled by the powers-that-be or the human tendency of habit involving living beyond one's means and the offloading of risk linked to Earth open systems of Nature holding.. -Then change can happen. Realistically Particularly if making the process fun and fair is held high.. However:
    -There are those that think the Earth is too big to make change and stop the way things will play out.
    The proof is in the pudding if we try full out to stop Arctic temperature rise. I think good will zoom up..
    I've explained the process using rudimentary understanding of Thermodynamic Law, I've explained the way to pull out of a nose dive and high speed stall at low altitude by analogy to flying a hang glider. We have to try and pull out like there is hope and it is possible to alter the big picture. We have to re establish margin for error for our kids to live. This is our duty to try.. To frame a path.

  3. Sam, the link to quantifying-arctic-methane needs dash between words arctic-news and quantifying-arctic-methane.
    Some very squirrely interference seems to be happening with links to that relevant information..

    1. Thanks Dale, I've quickly corrected that.