Showing posts sorted by date for query high methane levels over. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query high methane levels over. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Thursday, December 14, 2023

Double Blue Ocean Event 2024?

A double Blue Ocean Event could occur in 2024. Both Antarctic sea ice and Arctic sea ice could virtually disappear in 2024. A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) occurs when sea ice extent falls to 1 million km² or less, which could occur early 2024 for Antarctic sea ice and in Summer 2024 in the Northern Hemisphere for Arctic sea ice.

Antarctic sea ice loss

The situation regarding Antarctic sea ice extent is pictured in the image below, which shows that on December 12, 2023, Antarctic sea ice extent was 9.499 million km², a record low for the time of year.

[ image adapted from NSIDC ]

Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.788 million km² on February 21, 2023. Antarctic sea ice extent may well be much lower in February 2024, with sea ice loss fuelled by several self-reinforcing feedback loops, as discussed in an earlier post.

Arctic sea ice loss

The situation regarding Arctic sea ice extent is pictured in the image below.

[ image adapted from NSIDC ]

The above image shows that on December 12, 2023, Arctic sea ice extent was 9.499 million km², third lowest low for the time of year, behind 2016 and 2020.

Temperature November 2023



The above image shows the November 2023 temperature anomaly compared to a 1951-1980 base. The image below also shows the November 2023 temperature anomaly, but it is not compared to a 1951-1980 base (NASA's default), it is instead compared to a 1900-1923 base.

Of course, the temperature anomaly will be much higher when compared to pre-industrial. Further adjustments are required, because the NASA data are for sea surface temperatures (rather than temperatures of the air 2 meters above the sea surface). Also note the grey areas on the above map, signifying that no data are available for earlier years. This especially affects the Arctic, where the anomalies are highest, so disregarding these data is not appropriate. In the image below, data are adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect all this, as discussed at the pre-industrial page.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The above image is created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies vs 1900-1923, adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperature, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base. Blue: Polynomial trend based on Jan.1880-Nov. 2023 data. Magenta: Polynomial trend based on Jan. 2010-Nov. 2023 data.

The above images illustrate that temperatures are rising strongly in the Arctic, which gives a dire warning that a Blue Ocean Event could occur in Summer 2024 in the Northern Hemisphere that could further speed up global temperatures, as illustrated by the magenta-colored trend in the above image.

The situation is dire


Temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere were more than 2°C above 1951-1980 recently (2.024°C in October 2023 and 2.058 in November 2023), as illustrated by the above image. Note that anomalies on the image are calculated from 1951-1980 and that anomalies from pre-industrial are higher.

Land-only temperature anomalies can be much higher than land+ocean anomalies, since oceans act as a buffer. It is therefore most important to look at the land-only temperature anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere, since that is where the highest anomalies occur, at the very places where most people live. Furthermore, as temperatures keep rising, more extreme weather events occur, with an increase in intensity, frequency, duration and area covered by such events. The urban heat island effect can further add to the rising high temperature peaks reached in cities.

The precautionary principle urges the world to closely watch peak hourly local wet-bulb globe temperatures, rather than to hide the full wrath of the temperature rise by focusing on global temperature anomalies that are compared to recent base periods and that are averaged over periods going back ten years or longer. 

Temperatures are rising most rapidly in the Arctic, which contributes to the occurrence of more extreme weather events. Low temperatures in Winter in the Arctic are essential to build up ice thickness to preserve sea ice as the melting season starts.

[ Climatology temperatures are 1979-2000 averages and anomalies are calculated
from 1979-2000 averages. Black line: 2023. Orange line: 2022. Grey line: 2016. ]

Arctic temperature hit a record high for the time of year on December 15, 2023, and an anomaly of 5°C, as the above image shows. Arctic anomalies are the highest in the world, as illustrated by the record 8.3°C anomaly that was reached on November 18, 2016. Since the chance that the current El Niño will slow down soon is minimal, Arctic anomalies could reach even higher records in the next few months.

On December 12, 2023, as said, Arctic sea ice extent was third lowest for the time of year, i.e. only 2016 and 2020 were lower. The years 2016 and 2020 had the highest annual temperature (a tie) on record and this annual temperature record is likely to be surpassed in 2023, while 2024 may be even worse, as the chance that the current El Niño will slow down soon is minimal.

[ Water Vapor tipping point ]

In the video below, Anton Petrov discusses the runaway greenhouse effect. 



This is important, as a very small increase in solar irradiation – leading to an increase of the global Earth temperature, of only a few tens of degrees – would be enough to trigger an irreversible runaway process on Earth and make our planet as inhospitable as Venus, a recent study concludes, as discussed at this post.

A temperature rise of more than 10°C could unfold as early as by end 2026, due to contributions of gases (including water vapor), aerosols, albedo changes and further elements, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed, which could add a further 8°C to the rise.

This rise could in turn cause the water vapor tipping point to be crossed. The rise in water vapor alone could from then on suffice to push temperatures up further, in a runaway greenhouse process in which evaporation causes a global surface temperature rise of several hundred degrees Celsius. 

Arctic sea ice could have been even lower in extent, had the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) not been slowing down. As a result of AMOC's slowing down, less ocean heat is reaching the Arctic Ocean. Instead, a huge amount of ocean heat has been accumulating in the North Atlantic and much of this heat could soon be pushed abruptly into the Arctic Ocean as storms temporarily speed up currents that carry ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic sea ice volume is getting very low, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from dmi.dk. 

Meanwhile, Earth's radiation imbalance is very high, emissions are high and rising, and politicians refuse to act responsibly, all contributing to further deterioration of the situation, with the danger that ocean heat will reach and destabilize methane hydrates that are contained in sediments at the seafloor of oceans, resulting in massive methane eruptions, further pushing up global temperatures, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one and this one. 

As more people become aware of the dire situation, widespread panic may set in, as this 2007 post warned about. People may stop showing up for work, resulting in a rapid loss of the aerosol masking effect, as industries that now co-emit cooling aerosols (such as sulfates) grind to a halt. Many people may start to collect and burn more wood, resulting in an increase in emissions that speed up the temperature rise. As temperatures rise, more fires could also break out in forests, peatlands and urban areas including landfills and waste dumps, further contributing to emissions that speed up the temperature rise.

Ominously, the highest methane levels on record (surface flasks) were recently reached at Barrow, Alaska, U.S., as illustrated by the image below.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group. 


Links

• NSIDC - Interactive sea ice chart
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• NOAA - December 2023 El Niño update
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2023-el-nino-update-adventure

• Climate Reanalyzer - November 2023 temperature anomaly
https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps

• Climate Reanalyzer - Monthly reanalysis time series
https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_tseries

• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily surface air temperature, Arctic
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic

• NASA - maps
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps

• NASA - custom plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• First exploration of the runaway greenhouse transition with a 3D General Circulation Model - by Guillaume Chaverot et al.
https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html

• Polar Portal - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Barrow, Alaska


• Will temperatures keep rising fast?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html

• Will temperatures keep rising fast?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html

• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html


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Tuesday, December 5, 2023

Will temperatures keep rising fast?

[ discussed at facebook - click on images to enlarge ]

The above image, created with Climate Reanalyzer data, shows the temperature anomaly (in °C) compared to the 1979-2000 mean. In blue are the years 1979-2022 and in black and white is the year 2023 through December 3, 2023. A trend is added in pink and white, based on 2023 data. Note that the 1979-2000 mean isn't pre-industrial, the anomaly from pre-industrial is significantly higher.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The trend warns that temperatures could keep rising rapidly over the next few months. A number of things can contribute to such a rapid rise:

  • The chance that the current El Niño will slow down over the next few months is minimal, as illustrated by the IRI image on the right.

  • Earth's radiation imbalance is very high, as illustrated by the NASA image below.


  • Antarctic sea ice extent is at record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the NSIDC image below, and the fall in extent is particularly steep in December. Sea ice loss results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead getting absorbed by the ocean and the impact of Antarctic sea ice loss is even stronger than Arctic sea ice loss, as Antarctic sea ice is located closer to the Equator, as pointed out by Paul Beckwith in a video in an earlier post. A warmer Southern Ocean also comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as discussed here and here. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this 'pattern effect' could make a huge difference globally, as this study points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the feedbacks page).
  • There is a huge danger that ocean heat will reach and destabilize methane hydrates that are contained in sediments at the seafloor of oceans, resulting in massive methane eruptions, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

  • Emissions are high and rising. On December 6, 2023, CO₂ was 420.16 ppm at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Today’s greenhouse gas forcing of 4.6 W/m² is relative to mid-Holocene CO₂ of 260 ppm, i.e. the natural Holocene CO₂ level. Equilibrium global warming for today’s amount of greenhouse gases is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Warming in the past 6000 years was slowed down by aerosol cooling. Growing population, agriculture and land clearance produced aerosols and CO₂; wood was the main fuel for cooking and heating. Nonlinear aerosol forcing is largest in a pristine atmosphere. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. (from: Global warming in the pipeline, by James Hansen et al.)
    Rises in methane can cause rapid warming. The image below, created with a Copernicus forecast for December 6, 2023 03 UTC, shows very high methane levels at higher latitudes north at 500 hPa.
  • [ image from a 2014 post ]
    Meanwhile, as emissions keep rising, politicians refuse to act, preferring to debate the size of the "carbon budget". Sadly, the IPCC lends credibility to the idea that there was a "budget" to be divided among polluters, a "budget" that would enable polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. This adds a false sense of accountability to this "budget", as if it was checked and verified by scientists across the world. Instead, there is just a huge carbon debt that has to be removed from the atmosphere and the oceans.

  • [ image from the Extinction page ]
    As more people become aware of the dire situation, widespread panic can set in, as warned about in this 2007 post. Instead of crossing a social tipping point that prompts people into action to combat the temperature rise, panic may set in that stops many people from showing up at work, resulting in a rapid loss of the aerosol masking effect, as industries that now co-emit cooling aerosols (such as sulfates) grind to a halt. People may start to collect and burn more wood, resulting in an increase in emissions that speed up the temperature rise. As temperatures rise, more fires could also break out in forests, peatlands and urban areas including landfills and waste dumps, further contributing to emissions that speed up the temperature rise. 
As said, the 1979-2000 base used in the image at the top is not pre-industrial. Anomalies would be much higher when using a genuinely pre-industrial base. The image on the right uses a 2.29°C 2020 anomaly from 3480 BC.

The image on the right shows many elements that could jointly cause a rapid temperature rise of more than 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that on its own can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C.

Much of this is described at the extinction page.

Conclusion

The precautionary principle calls for comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation as described in this 2022 post, in line with recognition of the climate emergency we're in.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world

• Columbia Climate School, International Research Institute for Climate and Society

• NASA - Earth's Radiation Balance
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5173

• National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Global warming in the pipeline, by James Hansen et al. 
https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889

• Copernicus - Methane forecasts
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/products/methane-forecasts

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html


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Friday, November 17, 2023

Arctic Ocean Heatstroke

[ discussed at facebook ]
The above image illustrates how much hotter October 2023 was in the Northern Hemisphere, compared to October in other years. The temperature in October 2023 was more than 2°C above October in 1880-1920, in the Northern Hemisphere, even with 3 years smoothing. Note that 1880-1920 is not pre-industrial, when using a base that is genuinely pre-industrial, the anomaly would be even higher.


The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, and the image below, adapted from NASA, both use the same 1951-1980 baseline to illustrate the October 2023 temperature anomaly.


Anomalies are very high, especially over the Arctic Ocean, which reflects the enormous amounts of heat that are transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere.

There are further reasons behind the very high anomalies over the Arctic, one of which is methane, which has risen very fast over the years.

The image on the right illustrates methane's historic rise, showing IPCC and, more recently, WMO data. Methane (CH₄) reached 1923 parts per billion (ppb) in 2022, 264% of the 1750 level, while carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached 417.9 parts per million (ppm) in 2022, 150% of the 1750 level, and nitrous oxide (N₂O) reached 335.8 ppb, 124% of the 1750 level.

This image below shows some very high hourly average methane levels recently recorded at Barrow, Alaska.


The image below shows high monthly methane levels at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S. 


The image below, created with a Copernicus forecast for November 15, 2023 03 UTC, shows very high methane levels over the Arctic at 500 hPa.



The image below shows that the NOAA-20 satellite recorded high methane levels over the Arctic Ocean, especially north of Alaska, on November 15, 2023 AM at 399.1 mb.

The image below shows methane levels as high as 2700 ppb recorded by the MetOp-B satellite on November 17, 2023 PM at 293 mb.


The image below shows high methane levels over Greenland recorded by the MetOp-B satellite on November 18, 2023 PM at 399 mb.


The image below shows mean methane levels of 1942 ppb recorded by the MetOp-B satellite on November 19, 2023 PM at 399 mb.


The Argo Float 6904087 compilation image below illustrates that the highest water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean can occur at a depth of about 250 meters.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The Argo Float 6901934 compilation image below illustrates that the highest water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean can occur at a depth of about 250 meters.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Arctic Ocean surface temperatures are strongly influenced by air temperatures and seasons, ranging from more than 10°C to as low as -1.8°C when there is sea ice.

[ from earlier post ]
By contrast, the water temperature below the surface can remain stable throughout the year at close to 0°C all the way down to 2000 meters without freezing, due to higher salinity. However, the water temperature can be well above 0°C throughout the year at a depth of a few hundred meters, which is worrying since much of the water is less than 200 m deep where the continental shelves extend into the Arctic Ocean (light blue map on the right) and methane hydrates at the seafloor there could instantly be destabilized by a sudden influx of warm water from the North Atlantic. 

Over the next few months, as sea ice keeps growing in extent, this seals off the Arctic Ocean from the atmosphere. This makes it harder for heat to get transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere and increases the danger that more heat will reach sediments located at the seafloor and cause methane to be released from hydrates as well as methane that is present in the form of free gas underneath the hydrates.

The danger is illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, which shows a rise in temperature (2 m) by 2100 compared to 1852-1900 using a CMIP6 SSP585 model. 


[ image from the Extinction page ]
Note that none of the bases used in the above images is pre-industrial, neither 1880-1920, nor 1951-1980, nor 1852-1900. Using a base that is genuinely pre-industrial base would result in even higher anomalies. The image on the right shows a 2.29°C 2020 anomaly from 3480 BC.  

Note also that even a small temperature rise (of less than 1°C) can destabilize a vulnerable methane hydrate, which can cause an eruption that in turn can destabilize neighbouring hydrates, resulting in a self-reinforcing feedback loop of methane releases, including methane in the form of free gas from underneath the hydrates. This can drive up temperatures very rapidly. 

Seafloor methane is only one out of many elements that could jointly cause a temperature rise of over 10°C within a few years, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.

Conclusion

The precautionary principle calls for comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, along the lines of this 2022 post in combination with a declaration of a climate emergency.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps

• NASA Temperature anomaly October 2023

• WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 19 – 15 November 2023

• Copernicus - Methane forecasts





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Friday, October 13, 2023

Temperature rise - September 2023 and beyond

The above image, adapted from NASA and the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and using the same baseline, illustrate the September 2023 temperature anomaly.


September 2023 was the month with the highest temperature anomaly on record. What contributed to this?

El Niño
 

The temperature rose about 0.5°C from November 2022 to March 2023, and this occurred at a time when we were not even in an El Niño yet, as illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post. Below is an updated image, from January 1950 to September 2023, adapted from NOAA

[ click on images to enlarge ]
[ click on images to enlarge ]
The current El Niño is still strengthening, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from IRI.

Further contributors

There are further reasons why the temperature can be expected to keep rising beyond September 2023.

The number of sunspots has been higher than predicted and looks set to keep rising above predicted levels until July 2025, as discussed here.

The eruption of the submarine volcano near Tonga in January 2022 caused a lot of water vapor to reach high up into the atmosphere and this may still contribute to the temperature rise, as discussed here.

Aerosols that have a cooling effect, such as dust and sulfates (SO₄), are also important. As fossil fuel is burned, sulfates are co-emitted. Since they pollute the air, measures have been taken and are being taken to reduce them, e.g. in shipping, and this has pushed up the temperature rise. Meanwhile, cooling aerosols such as sulfates are still high. As illustrated by the image below, adapted from nullschool.net, SO₄ was as high as 8.621 τ at the green circle on October 6, 2023, at 07:00 UTC. In future, SO₄ could fall dramatically, e.g. in case of a sudden economic collapse, reducing the aerosol masking effect rapidly and abruptly causing a substantial rise in temperature.


After little change in the Antarctic sea ice extent graph for decades, extent loss was dramatic in 2022 and even more dramatic in 2023, as less and less sunlight was getting reflected back into space and instead was getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC.
Sea ice retreat comes with loss of albedo, i.e. loss of the amount of sunlight reflected back into space, resulting in more heat getting absorbed in the Southern Ocean, making it a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Clouds constitute another self-reinforcing feedback loop; a warmer Southern Ocean comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as discussed here and here. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this 'pattern effect' could make a huge difference globally, as a recent study points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the feedbacks page). 



The above image was created by Zach Labe with NSIDC data (Arctic + Antarctic) for each year from 1979 to 2023 (satellite-era; NSIDC, DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS). The image illustrates that global sea ice extent  recently reached the largest anomaly in the satellite record. Anomalies are calculated using a 5-day running mean from a climatological baseline of 1981-2010. 2016 is shown with a yellow line. 2023 is shown using a red line (updated 10/16/2023).

In the video below, Paul Beckwith discusses the importance of loss of sea ice at around -60° (South).


As said, there are many factors behind the temperature increase around latitude -60° (South). As Paul mentions, this latitude receives a lot of sunlight around the year. Therefore, it is not surprising that, as oceans continue to heat up, there is huge loss of sea ice at this latitude, as well as loss of lower clouds, while open oceans are additionally less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum. The image below, adapted from NASA, shows a white band around -60° (South), indicating that the Southern Ocean has long been colder there than elsewhere, but has recently started to catch up with the global temperature rise.



The above image also illustrates that anomalies are highest in the Arctic, narrowing the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics, with the air flow slowing down accordingly. 

[ image adapted from Copernicus ]
This in turn changes the Jet Stream and the Polar Vortex, resulting in blocking patterns that can, in combination with rising temperatures, strongly increase the frequency, intensity, duration and area coverage of extreme weather events such as storms and lightning, heatwaves and forest fires.

Forest fires in Canada have been releasing massive amounts of emissions that push up the temperature, including greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, warming aerosols such as black carbon & brown carbon and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic carbon) and carbon monoxide that reduce the availability of hydroxyl, resulting in more methane and ozone in the atmosphere. 

[ NH sea surface temperature anomaly ]
At the same time, slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Current (AMOC) can result in more ocean heat accumulating at the surface of the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

As temperatures rise, increased meltwater runoff from Greenland and more icebergs moving south, in combination with stronger ocean stratification and stronger storms over the North Atlantic, can also cause a freshwater lid to form at the surface of North Atlantic that can at times enable a lot of hot water to get pushed abruptly underneath this lid toward the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that more heat will reach the seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic ocean. 

Ominously, very high methane levels continue to be recorded at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.

The next few months will be critical as Arctic sea ice is sealing off the Arctic Ocean from the atmosphere, trapping heat underneath the ice and making it harder for ocean heat to get transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere above the Arctic. Furthermore, sea ice is very thin, reducing the latent heat buffer that could otherwise have consumed ocean heat. 

The next danger is that the thin Arctic sea ice will rapidly retreat early next year as a warming Arctic Ocean will transfer more heat to the atmosphere over the Arctic, resulting in more rain and more clouds in the atmosphere over the Arctic, speeding up sea ice loss and further pushing up the temperature rise over the Arctic, as discussed at the feedbacks page, which also discusses how less Arctic sea ice can push up temperatures through the emissivity feedback. As temperatures rise over the Arctic, permafrost on land also threatens to thaw faster, threatening to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. 


Meanwhile, emissions of greenhouse gases keep rising, further pushing up the temperature, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.
  
[ Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022, adapted from EIA ]
In the video below, Guy McPherson describes how temperature rise, loss of habitat and meltdown of nuclear power facilities each could result in rapid extinction of humans and many other species.


There are numerous further feedbacks that can accelerate the temperature rise and tipping points that can get crossed and cause even more abrupt rise of the temperature. One of these is the clouds tipping point that in itself can cause a temperature rise of 8°C, as discussed here.

Further feedbacks are also discussed at the Extinction page.  One further feedback is water vapor. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, at a rate of 7% for each Degree Celsius the temperature rises. As temperatures keep rising, ever more water vapor will be sucked up by the atmosphere. This will also cause more droughts, reducing the ability of land to sustain vegetation and provide soil cooling through shading and through evaporation and formation of lower clouds, as discussed here. More water vapor in the atmosphere will also speed up the temperature rise because water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas.

The fact that such tipping points and feedbacks occur as greenhouse gas levels reach certain levels and as the temperature rise makes it critical to assess how fast greenhouse gas levels could rise and by how much the temperature has already risen. 

NASA data up through September 2023

The image below, adapted from NASA, shows that the September 2023 NASA Land+Ocean temperature was 1.78°C higher than it was in September 1923. The anomaly is 1.74°C when compared to a base centered around the year 1900 (1885-1915). The 1.74°C anomaly can be adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect a pre-industrial base, air temperature and higher polar anomalies (as shown in the box on the bottom right of the image), adding up to a potential anomaly of 2.73°C. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Indeed, earlier analysis such as discussed here, points out that the temperature may already have risen by more than 2°C (compared to pre-industrial) in 2015, when politicians pledged at the Paris Agreement to take action to combat the temperature rise to prevent this from happening. 

Blue: Polynomial trend based on Jan.1880-Sep.2023 data. 
Magenta: Polynomial trend based on Jan.2010-Sep.2023 data.
The above image is created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies vs 1885-1915, adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperature, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base, and has trends added.  

Alarms bells have been sounding loud and clear for a long time, as discussed in posts such as this one, warning that the temperature could rise by more than 3°C by 2026. The above magenta graph shows how this could occur as early as next year (end 2024).

[ image from earlier post ]
[ image from the Extinction page ]
The above image illustrates the latent heat tipping point - estimated to correspond with a sea surface temperature anomaly of 1°C above the long term average (1901-1930 on the above image) - to get crossed and the seafloor methane tipping point - estimated to correspond with a sea surface temperature anomaly of 1.35°C - to get reached, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one, .

A Blue Ocean Event could occur as the latent heat and seafloor methane tipping points get crossed, and the ocean temperature keeps rising, as huge amounts of methane get released in the Arctic, as ever more heat keeps reaching and destabilizing methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

Seafloor methane is one of many elements that could jointly cause a temperature rise of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.

Conclusion

The precautionary principle should prevail and the looming dangers should prompt people into demanding comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation. 

To combat rising temperatures, a transformation of society should be undertaken, along the lines of this 2022 post in combination with a declaration of a climate emergency.


Links

• NASA - global maps

• NOAA - ENSO and Temperature bars

• The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

• Nullschool.net

• NSIDC - sea ice graph

• Zach Labe - Global sea ice - extent, concentration, etc.

• NASA - zonal means
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/zonal_means

• Copernicus - Northern Hemisphere wildfires: A summer of extremes
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/northern-hemisphere-wildfires-summer-extremes

• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Paul Beckwith - Accelerated Global Warming from Antarctic Sea Ice Collapse: Albedo, Latitude, Snow Cover on Ice…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5P1W4TrczQ

• Guy McPherson - College of Complexes Presentation (with Improved Audio) 

• NASA custom plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• Transforming Society



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