Striking increase of methane in the Arctic

Click on image to enlarge

Dr. Leonid Yurganov, Senior Research Scientist, JCET, UMBC, and member of AMEG, produced the above images with IASI/METOP satellite data (EUMETSAT).

The images show methane levels for 2008, 1-10 November, and for 2011, 1-10 November.

The images show a striking increase of methane over the shelf areas of the Arctic Ocean.

For reference, the image on the right is added, showing predicted methane hydrates, as published by WWF with surface temperature hotspots added.

Dr. Yurganov points at the threat of large emissions of methane from clathrates (methane hydrates) in the Arctic, and urges others to support his proposals for further satellite methane monitoring.

Current growth of methane is being monitored by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) facility on NASA's Aqua satellite.

Dr. Yurganov has been using AIRS data for years and points at an image he produced using AIRS data. The image shows that, during the autumn of 2011, the anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere was substantially larger than the anomaly in the Southern Hemisphere.
ftp://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/AIRS_CH4_2002-2012.pdf

Monthly mean maps of methane are available at Dr. Yurganov's website. The maps have been produced using AIRS data since 2002 up to now, for both the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere. The maps are at:
ftp://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/MAPS/

Comparisons with other instruments for the Arctic are still few or lacking. Examples are for TANSO, May-November, 2010:
ftp://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/MAPS/TANSO_2010day&night.jpg

Discussion: Should patent law apply to geo-engineering?

David Keith, a Harvard University professor and an adviser on energy to Microsoft founder Bill Gates, said he and his colleagues are researching whether the federal government could ban patents in the field of solar radiation, according to a report in Scientific American.

Some of his colleagues last week traveled to Washington, D.C., where they discussed whether the U.S. Patent Office could ban patents on the technology, Keith said.

"We think it's very dangerous for these solar radiation technologies, it's dangerous to have it be privatized," Keith said. "The core technologies need to be public domain."

As suggested by Sam Carana, a declaration of emergency, as called for by the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG), could be another way to deal with this issue.

A declaration of Emergency could give governments the power to overrule patents, where they stand in the way of fast-tracking geo-engineering projects proposed under emergency rules.Thus, patents don't need to be banned, prohibited or taken away; instead, patent will continue to apply in all situations other than the emergency situation, while new patents could also continue to be lodged during the emergency period.

Even where patent are directly applicable to proposed projects, patent law would still continue to apply, the emergency rules would merely allow governments to proceed in specific situations, avoiding that projects are being held up by legal action, exorbitant prices or withholding of crucial information.

A declaration of emergency could also speed up projects by removing the need to comply with all kinds of time-consuming bureaucratic procedures, such as the need to get formal approvals and permits from various departments, etc. This brings us to the need to comply with international protocols and agreements. If declared internationally, a declaration of emergency could overrule parts of such agreements where they pose unacceptable delays and cannot be resolved through diplomacy.

The issue is also discussed at the Geoengineering group at Google.

AMEG at Planet under Pressure conference

The AMEG poster below was displayed at the Planet under Pressure conference, London, 26 - 29 March 2012. 

The AMEG pamphlet further below was distributed at this conference. 

AMEG Position Statement

DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY

Position Statement - Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) 

We declare there now exists an extremely high international security risk* from abrupt and runaway global warming being triggered by the end-summer collapse of Arctic sea ice towards a fraction of the current record and release of huge quantities of methane gas from the seabed. Such global warming would lead at first to worldwide crop failures but ultimately and inexorably to the collapse of civilization as we know it. This colossal threat demands an immediate emergency scale response to cool the Arctic and save the sea ice. The latest available data indicates that a sea ice collapse is more than likely by 2015 and even possible this summer (2012). Thus some measures to counter the threat have to be ready within a few months.

The immediacy of this risk is underlined by the discovery of vast areas of continental shelf already in a critical condition as a result of the warming of the Arctic Ocean seabed. Increasingly large quantities of methane are being emitted from the seabed. Moreover there is the possibility of methane held as hydrates or under thawing permafrost being suddenly released in very large quantities due to some disturbance such as an earthquake. The quantities of methane in the continental shelf are so vast that a release of only one or two percent of the methane could lead to the release of the remaining methane in an unstoppable chain reaction. Global warming would spiral upward way beyond the 2 degrees which many scientists consider the safety limit.

However we do not take a defeatist attitude towards this extremely dangerous situation. The present challenge to overcome almost impossible odds is reminiscent of World War 2. There exist the talent, technology and engineering skills to fight against these odds and win, given determination, focus and collaboration.

Governments must adopt a plan of action to cool the Arctic, halt the retreat of the Arctic sea ice and slow the release of methane. A variety of means of cooling the Arctic are available, some of which may be classed as geoengineering.

Governments must also take rapid measures to reduce short-lived climate forcers, such as methane and black carbon (commonly known as soot), especially where emitted at high northern latitudes.

Governments must furthermore put in place the necessary monitoring procedures for assessing the situation, allowing accurate modelling and determining the effectiveness and safety of the measures taken.

But intervention on a large scale has to be accepted in order to avert the ultimate catastrophe of runaway global warming. No amount of adaptation or insulation could make that survivable. We demand for all nations to pull together in battle against these threats. We consider it a moral duty: to fight against destruction of the climate system in order to protect the lives of all citizens.

Note that AMEG considers that the cooling of the Arctic should be seen one of many efforts to bring the atmosphere and oceans back towards their pre-industrial state, especially since such efforts reduce both immediate and longer-term risks arising from Arctic warming, sea ice retreat and methane release. AMEG is fully supportive of these efforts.

Source: http://AMEG.me

The Case for Emergency Geo-Engineering to save the Arctic from Collapse

An APPCCG Event:

The Case for Emergency Geo-Engineering to save the Arctic from Collapse

WHEN: Tuesday, 13th March, 1:00 - 2:30 pm
WHERE: Committee Room 8, House of Commons, London SW1A 0AA

You are invited to attend this APPCCG event with the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG), an NGO founded in October 2011 and supported by world renowned scientists. 

AMEG will set before the APPCCG new evidence that shows that because of rising sea and air temperatures the Arctic is in a state of rapid collapse, with a high probability that the Arctic will be completely ice-free at its summer minimum as early as 2013 and having no sea-ice in the Arctic for six months of the year by 2018-20.

At the same time, thawing and release of previously frozen methane previously trapped under the Arctic sea bed and in the surrounding tundra, is also increasing alarmingly, a process that will accelerate as the Arctic sea responds to the loss of sea-ice protection. 

Evidence will be presented of what is actually happening in the Arctic, in regard to the reduction of the ice sheet, the rate of methane release and details of the basic driving mechanisms in the form of warming ocean currents and increasing solar absorption in the region.

The meeting will also focus on the possible ways of halting this process and managing the level of the solar radiation currently reaching the Arctic, and will explore the challenges inherent in applying the technology in one of the most inhospitable regions on Earth.

Panellists will include:
    •    Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, Cambridge
    •    John Nissen, Chairman of AMEG
    •    Stephen Salter, Professor of Engineering Design, Edinburgh
The panel discussion will be followed by a question and answer session. 

If you would like to attend this meeting, please contact Neha Sethi at the APPCCG Secretariat on climatechangegroup@carbonneutral.com or tel: +44 (0) 20 7833 6035.

Please enter by St. Stephen’s Gate, and allow about 15 minutes to pass through security.  

All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group (APPCCG)
http://www.carbonneutral.com/page/appccg/

http://www.imeche.org/Libraries/Knowledge-Power/Update_from_the_All_Party_Parliamentary_Climate_Change_Group.sflb.ashx

Originally posted at AMEG.me:
http://ameg.me/index.php/24-the-case-for-emergency-geo-engineering-to-save-the-arctic-from-collapse

Protecting the Arctic

U.K. Environmental Audit Committee, hearing February 21, 2012

Peter Wadhams (left) and John Nissen (right)

The meeting started at 2.12pm and ended at 4.08pm.

The video below starts with a presentation by Professor Tim Lenton, University of Exeter, who is not a member of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group. The video further features Professor Peter Wadhams, University of Cambridge, and John Nissen, Chair, Arctic Methane Emergency Group.

Click on Read More if you don't see the video (it may take some time for the video to start), the transcript and written submission below.

Arctic Methane Emergency Group Letter to World Leaders

Arctic Methane Emergency Group  

Emergency intervention to stabilize Arctic sea ice and thereby Arctic methane is today a matter of our survival

I write to you on behalf of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, which includes among its founding members Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, Cambridge; Stephen Salter, Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design, Edinburgh; and Brian Orr, former Principal Science Officer at the UK DoE (as was). The Group has received support and advice from many pre-eminent climate science colleagues around the world.  The purpose of this letter is to respectfully bring to your attention new evidence of the rapidly deepening climate change crisis in the Arctic. We appeal to you to support our call to put the imminent loss of Arctic summer sea ice and escalation of Arctic methane emissions at the top of the climate change agenda and to support emergency measures to cool the Arctic.

Professor Peter Wadhams, on behalf of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, spoke about this critical issue at the December 2011 American Geophysical Union (AGU) conference in San Francisco, USA. Key elements of his talk have been widely reported, following an article in the UK's Independent newspaper.

The substance of our concerns – and the basis for these media reports – is outlined in our 16-page document entitled Arctic Methane Alert. To summarise:

• The loss of Arctic summer sea ice and increased warming of the Arctic seas threaten methane hydrate instability and a massive catastrophic release of methane into the atmosphere, as noted in IPCC AR4. 

• Research published by N. Shakhova* shows that methane is already venting into the atmosphere from seabed methane hydrates on the East Siberian Arctic shelf, or ESAS (the world's largest continental shelf), which, if allowed to escalate, would likely lead to abrupt and catastrophic global warming.

• The latest research expedition to the region (September/October 2011), according to Professor I. Semiletov, witnessed methane plumes on a "fantastic scale," "some one kilometer in diameter," "far greater" than previous observations, which were officially reported in 2010 to equal methane emissions from all the other oceans put together.

• The loss of Arctic summer sea ice and subsequent increased Arctic surface warming will inevitably increase the rate of methane emissions already being released from Arctic wetlands and thawing permafrost.

• The latest available data indicates there is a 5-10% possibility of the Arctic being ice free in September by 2013, more likely 2015, and with 95% confidence by 2018. This, according to the recognised world authorities on Arctic sea ice, Prof. Wadhams and Dr. Wieslaw Maslowski, is the point of no return for summer sea ice. Once past this point, it could prove impossible to reverse the retreat by any kind of intervention.  The data indicate the Arctic could be ice free for six months of the year by 2020 (PIOMAS 2011).

It is on the basis of this latest and best information that we are calling for urgent and immediate action to arrest the escalating decline of Arctic sea ice.

Action is demanded by the precautionary principle and under the terms of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which states: "The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimise the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures."   

The conditions that have long been recognised as potentially causing vast quantities of methane to be released in the Arctic are clearly developing. The calamitous impacts of inaction are well-known – runaway climate change. As US Energy Secretary and Nobel Laureate, Steven Chu, said when addressing the consequences of an Arctic meltdown, "A runaway effect… We cannot go there." The only way to prevent this critical situation from developing into a global catastrophe is through international recognition of the issue, and collaboration on the immediate and urgent intensification of scientific inquiry and the emergency scale development of countermeasures such as geoengineering to cool the Arctic.

As you are a guardian of the global community, we are counting on your support.

John Nissen,
Chair, Arctic Methane Emergency Group

* "Remobilization to the atmosphere of only a small fraction of the methane held in East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) sediments could trigger abrupt climate warming….Our concern is that the subsea permafrost has been showing signs of deabilization already. If it further destabilizes, the methane emissions may not be teragrams, it would be significantly larger. The release to the atmosphere of only one percent of the methane assumed to be stored in shallow hydrate deposits might alter the current atmospheric burden of methane up to 3 to 4 times."

— N. Shakhova, Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere from Sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, Science, 5 March 2010