Tracking toward mass extinction

 by Andrew Glikson

Where “Two plus two equals five if the party says so” (George Orwell)
and when drilling methane wells reduces global warming

Having turned a blind eye to climate science, ignoring the evidence that extreme atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) rise and ocean acidification have led to mass extinctions of species through time, humanity allows an exponential growth of carbon emissions to track toward a global suicide marked by false pretexts and betrayal by the powers that be. The evidence suggests unabated global warming will lead to 3.4 million Deaths Per Year by Century End, fatal consequences calling for a preemptive Nuremberg-like trial exposing the crimes leading to the looming climate suicide.

Note the future estimates of CO₂ levels.

[ Figure 1. Historic CO₂, by Owen Mulhern, image from Forster et al. (2017) ]

Note the sharp current and near-future temperature rise.

[ Figure 2. by Glen Fergus, from: Wikipedia - Temperature of Planet Earth ]

The rise in CO₂ in the atmosphere and oceans and the rise in ocean acidity (decline in pH).

[ Figure 3. As human activities have increased CO2 levels in our atmosphere (red line),
about a third of that CO2 has been absorbed by the ocean (green line), and
ocean pH has decreased (blue line). Adapted from NOAA by UC Museum of Paleontology. ]

According to the IPCC, as stated by the late Prof Will Steffen, Australia’s foremost climate scientist, if the exponential rise in greenhouse gas emissions continues we will already have crossed the upper limit that gives us a two-thirds chance of limiting warming to <2.0°C. Other scientists estimate that we have already missed the boat.

During the 200-plus years since the onset of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels, changing land use and deforestation increased the concentration of atmospheric CO₂. As the ocean absorbs about 30% of the CO₂ its surface acidity increased by -0.1 pH units on a logarithmic scale, resulting in rising concentration of hydrogen ions, a process with far reaching implications for the survival of marine organisms, altering ecosystems.

Ocean acidification affects marine life by dissolving shells and skeletons made from calcium carbonate. Organisms that produce calcium carbonate structures, like corals, sea urchins, sea snails and oysters, need to spend extra energy repairing damaged shells or thickening them to survive.

The onset of the Sixth mass extinction of species.

[ Figure 4. Cumulative vertebrate species recorded as extinct or extinct in the wild by the IUCN (2012). Dashed black line represents background rate. This is the ‘highly conservative estimate’. Source: Ceballos et al. (2015). ]

There have been five Mass Extinction events in the history of Earth's biodiversity, all caused by dramatic natural phenomena. The current rate of extinction is 10 to 100 times higher than in any of the previous mass extinctions in the history of Earth. Incorporating estimates of the true number of invertebrate extinctions leads to the conclusion that the rate vastly exceeds the background rate and that we may indeed be witnessing the start of the Sixth Mass Extinction Island species have suffered far greater rates than continental ones.

As systematic biologists, we encourage the nurturing of the innate human appreciation of biodiversity, but we reaffirm the message that the biodiversity that makes our world so fascinating, beautiful and functional is vanishing unnoticed at an unprecedented rate. These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way.

While multitudes of humanity are trying to escape climate disasters, such as Africa, or are engaged in fatal conflicts and geocidal wars, or are perched in front of electronic screens flaunting obscene hubris, cheap entertainment and commercial and political propaganda.

It is far from clear who, apart from the children, would be able to save life on Earth?

A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and climate scientist

Andrew Glikson

Books:

The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

The Orwellian rules-based Climate

By Andrew Glikson

“History is a nightmare from which I am trying to wake” (James Joyce)

Figure 1. Extinctions CC from: The five mass extinctions in Earth History. The rate of the current rise of greenhouse
gas levels and thereby temperatures is higher by more than an order of magnitude than that of previous
mass extinctions. (Figures 11.2, 11.5). Glikson. A.Y., 2023 The Trials of Gaia.

War ─ the mass sacrifice of young generations throughout history, culminating in the barbarism of empires such as the Roman “Pax Romana”, represents the repeated collapse of sanity with transient intervals such as the League of Nations between WWI and the impotent United Nations. More recent bloodsheds such as the Korean, Viet Nam, Rwandan and Middle Eastern wars, along with global heating and nuclear proliferation, herald the collapse of a species dominated by tribalism and the hubris of the 24-hour media cycle ─ A tale full of sound and fury told by an idiot signifying nothing (Macbeth, Shakespeare).

In a human civilization dominated by mega-empires, armed to the teeth with planet-killer weapons, ruled by military juntas, industrial military complexes, Earth-poisoning energy corporations, multi-billionaires and media tycoon, the concept of “democracy” provides a fig leaf covering exploitation, repression and massacres.

The potential consequences of a nuclear war appear to have escaped the mainstream media attention. There is little evidence of peace negotiations between the major adversaries and measures of averting accidental conflagrations, whether human error or the failure of a computer chip, have been minimized. Having betrayed the prospect of a peaceful future, the warring parties keep investing in $trillion-scale re-armament, covered by sophisticated terms such as self-defence, stability and the rules-based international order.

Purporting a climate catastrophe can be averted by development of alternative energy despite a rise in the production of fossil fuels, growing emission of greenhouse gases (~4 ppm/year in 2023-2024), the rise in global temperatures toward +4 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and the spate of extreme weather events. A nuclear armada aimed at all advanced life is expanded into space while the young generation is occupied with Tik-Tok games.

According to climate science authorities (Hansen et al., 2016) “Burning all fossil fuels would create a different planet than the one that humanity knows. The paleo-climate record and ongoing climate change make it clear that the climate system would be pushed beyond tipping points, setting in motion irreversible changes, including ice sheet disintegration with a continually adjusting shoreline, extermination of a substantial fraction of species on the planet, and increasingly devastating regional climate extremes”.

According to Baronsky et al. (2017) “Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence.” and “Climates found at present on 10–48 % of the planet are projected to disappear within a century ... The mean global temperature by 2070, or possibly a few decades earlier, will be higher than it has been since the human species evolved”.

Nor would the oceans fare better. According to Veron (2008): “The five mass extinction events that the earth has so far experienced have impacted coral reefs as much or more than any other major ecosystem. Each has left the Earth without living reefs for at least four million years, intervals so great that they are commonly referred to as ‘reef gaps’. The prospect of ocean acidification is potentially the most serious of all predicted outcomes of anthropogenic carbon dioxide increase. This study concludes that acidification has the potential to trigger a sixth mass extinction event and to do so independently of anthropogenic extinctions that are currently taking place.

Alas, a majority of the world’s 8.1 billion humans is only partly aware of the looming demise of human civilization in the wake of its near to 10 millennia history and of the mass extinction of advanced species, allowing the “powers that be” to perpetrate the biggest crime against humanity and nature in history (Figure 2). 

Figure 2. Henry Fuseli, The Nightmare (1781), in the Institute of Fine Arts, Detroit. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:John_Henry_Fuseli_-_The_Nightmare.JPG

A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and climate scientist

Andrew Glikson

Books:

The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

Oppenheimer’s legacy – Portents of a nuclear war on a burning planet

The MADNESS of NUCLEAR and CLIMATE HORROR

by Andrew Glikson

The 24-hour media news cycle clouds the minds of people, perpetrators and hapless victims alike, to the future dimension, whether that of future generations or of the natural world itself.

During the 20-21ˢᵗ centuries, as mean global temperature keeps rising toward 4°C, a failed brain neuron or a damaged computer chip can trigger a nuclear catastrophe, while the 24-hour media news cycle can blind humanity to the future. The conditions emerge where the world is largely taken over by the banality of evil, insane mass murders, fake news and artificial intelligence, lately camouflaged by glitzy Oscar-winning orgies attended by billionaires and celebrity actors, such as at the launch of the film Oppenheimer, where the 140 thousand incinerated victims and hibakusha survivors of the Hiroshima atomic bomb are completely ignored

The film, populated by nuclear scientists, decorated military officers and replete with romantic affairs, makes little reference to the looming road to a nuclear abyss herald by the clock of the atomic scientists. Thus “Oppenheimer does little to challenge the long history of glorifying the work of white men, and risks perpetuating the persistent, often reductive, portrayals of Japanese victims in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.”

The world arsenal of 12,500 nuclear warheads, enough to terminate many advanced species on Earth, is hardly mentioned in the film, dominated by the world of good vs evil proclaimed by priests of god’s chosen nations, while the doomsday machine on which civilization spends $trillions out of the mouth of starving children.

It is a statistical impossibility that this arsenal may not be triggered, at least in part, by accident or design, such as has nearly-happened. The bloodsheds in Ukraine herald the onset of a rules-free world where anything is allowable, ultimately toward global death in the name of freedom.

Perched in front of fluorescent screens, oblivious to the unthinkable, the collective is mesmerized by the obscene untruths of the global media, portraying tribal massacres alternating with funeral insurance advertisements, national hubris and vacuous amusement.

How long would it take, if ever, for people to learn that the last thing politicians would tell them is the entire truth, even if they are aware of it.

Sane voices such as of Noam Chomsky and John Pilger are no longer heard.

It is not clear to what extent it worries too many people that the oncoming climate catastrophe and mass extinction of species have become statistically inevitable, as the idea that near -200,000 years of evolution may be eliminated belongs to the unthinkable. The idea may hardly enter into the minds of most decision makers, politicians and strategists.

The 24-hour media news cycle renders peoples’ minds oblivious to the future, whether of their offspring or of the natural world itself.

The biggest lie, conscious or unconscious, used by authorities which are supposed to protect life, is when they use the term “Future” as they repeatedly do, the very future they are betraying by what they are doing and by what they currently are not.


A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and climate scientist

Andrew Glikson

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

Too late?

Climate change denial and the rise of fascism

by Andrew Glikson

but they can be sure that they won't be recorded for their crimes in history -- because
there won't be any history” (Noam Chomsky, 2023, in a letter to the author)

Extreme planetary heating, the failure of effective mitigation and the rise of denial around the world combine to lead to a seventh mass extinction of species. While originally Global warming constituted an unintended consequence of the 18-20ᵗʰ centuries industrial revolution, the collapse of attempts to arrest it in the 20-21st centuries is already leading toward a mass extinction, but the rise of fascist movements and their neoconservative kins is jeopardizing a unified global approach to the climate crisis. Inherently however racist ideology, worship of power, glorification of war, the pride of killing and “honourable” death is not concerned with the fatal consequences of climate change.

Figure 1. 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 by a wide margin. It was 1.18°C
above the 20th-century average of 13.9°C. It was 1.35°C above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900).

While the authorities (so-called) claim they are trying to arrest global warming, temperatures continue to rise to fatal levels (Figure 1). Ignoring climate science, dismissing climate scientists and confecting lies while global heating accelerates with deleterious consequences, the species sapiens is finding itself on track to carbon saturation to Miocene levels (420< ppm) of its atmosphere ─ the lungs of the Earth ─ at a geologically unprecedented rate. The extreme rise in the chemistry of the atmosphere, the acidification of the oceans and the coating of the land with carbon residues and plastics are leading toward an uninhabitable Earth.

With exceptions governments pretend the introduction of alternative energy ─ solar, wind, hydrothermal, hydro and tide ─ is likely to reduce the mining of and emission from fossil fuels, but this has hardly occurred since 2022. Oblivious to the implications of climate science, the concerns of the powers that be hinge on the bottom line, an attitude echoed by much in the population. False claims abound in high places, as exemplified by the chair of COP-28 conference claiming: “there is ‘no science’ behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels”.

Everywhere, including Australia, carbon counting hinges on domestic mining and emissions to the exclusion of carbon exports. Thus “Oil, gas, and coal exports are not counted when countries tally their greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement.”

Hopeful popular belief abound, as if new science-based discoveries could resolve climate change, as by the optimistic projection by NASA: “While we cannot stop global warming overnight, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot. Such suggestions overlook the amplifying feedback from warming oceans, melting ice sheets. disintegrating permafrost, release of methane from the oceans, and migrating climate zones. Scientists are caught between a need to promote mitigation and adaptation on the one hand and a reluctance to communicate the impending calamity.

Australia’s enshrined emissions cut target of 43% by 2030, up from 26-28%, has limited consequences since it has become the fifth largest miner and the world’s third biggest exporter of fossil fuels, exporting only behind Russia and Saudi Arabia, more than Iraq, Venezuela and any country in the EU.

The blood-stained history of Homo sapiens since the mastery of fire (Figure 2), all the way to the Anthropocene crisis, combined with the proliferation of doomsday weapons, do not bode well for the future of terrestrial species.

Global empires east and west have become increasingly brutal. Fascism ─ the ideology of death ─ and its neo-conservative (so-called) followers are not concerned with global warming and its consequences, except where it hurts the profit motive. References to “climate change” by politicians constitute hollow words they hardly mean. There are not too many angels left except where the young like Greta Thunberg rebel.

Figure 2. The deep time origin of the Anthropocene.

A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist

Andrew Glikson

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

Crossing 1.5C - On track toward an uninhabitable Earth

by Andrew Glikson

“… but they can be sure that they won't be recorded for their crimes in history -- because there won't be any history” (Noam Chomsky, 2023)

The macabre criminality of world’s so-called leaders, coupled with the ignorant compliance of a majority of the victims of global heating and potential nuclear annihilation, belong to the inconceivable. It is not clear whether any climate scientists are left to whom governments are listening, for if they did, they would learn that the intensification of extreme weather events currently and later in the century is bound to render large parts of the planet uninhabitable. In particular of islands ravaged by cyclones and sea level rise, extensive tropical and subtropical coastal zones and lands subjected to storms, floods, draughts and fires, in Africa, Australia and India. Polar-sourced cold fronts crossing the weakening jet stream boundary are already disrupting North America, Siberia and Europe, as are warm air masses penetrating the Arctic circle.

Distracted by a series of horrific bloodsheds induced by toxic masculinity of alpha males around the world, propagated by the “media”, the multitudes are only dimly aware of the oncoming climate carnage, orders of magnitude bigger than currently forecast.

According to leading climate scientists like James Hansen and his colleagues: “Without major action to reduce emissions, global temperature is on track to rise by 2.5°C to 4.5°C by 2100” (NASA 2023). It is far from clear whether anything can be done to arrest or reverse global heating, for as temperatures rise so is the production of fossil fuels enhanced by science-ignorant hordes of politicians and economists oblivious to the basic laws of physics. Alternative clean energy without sharp cuts in fossil fuel combustion can hardly stem global heating.

[ Figure. 1. Daily surface temperature analysis from the ECMWF reanalysis version 5 (ERA5). ]

December was the 7th consecutive month of record-shattering global temperature (Figure 1.), driven by the combination of a moderately strong El Nino and a large decrease of Earth’s albedo. Hansen et al. (2024) expect record monthly temperatures to continue into mid-2024, due to the present large planetary energy imbalance, with the 12- month running-mean global temperature reaching +1.6-1.7°C relative to 1880-1920. It will be clear that the 1.5°C ceiling has been passed for all practical purposes, and that the mean global temperature is currently accelerating toward 2.0°C above pre-industrial temperature by the middle of the decade (Figure 2), while the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world over the last 43 years, on average around 3℃ warmer than it was in 1980. Over the past 30 years Antarctica has been one of the fastest-changing places on Earth, warming more than 3 times than the rest of the world.

[ Figure. 2. Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on the GISS analysis
(Goddard Institute of Space Studies) analysis - by James Hansen et al., 2024. ]

A projection by NOAA states: “While we cannot stop global warming overnight, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot (“black carbon”). Unfortunately, this projection takes neither the amplifying feedback, i.e. from warming oceans, melting ice sheets, migrating climate zones and melting of methane, nor the time factor into account.

A factor rarely taken into account emerges from Hansen et al. (1996)'s paper “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modelling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous” (Figure 3). Here the flow of cold ice melt water results in formation of large cold-water pools of in the Atlantic and Southern oceans, inducing a contraction of the tropical climate zone and an overall decline in mean global temperatures. The collision between the cold air and water fronts and the tropical warm air mass would lead to severe storms over large tracts of Earth.

Likely transient respites in global warming (stadials) may take place over the next few centuries or longer, when the flow of cold ice-melt water from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets (Bronselaer et al., 2018; Glikson, 2019) reduces the mean rate of warming, although this may occur too late for civilization (Figure 3).

[ Figure 3. Surface air temperature (°C) relative to 1880-1920 for several scenarios - by James Hansen et al. 2016.
Future model transient cooling periods consequent on flow of ice meltwater from Greenland and Antarctica into oceans ]

The criminal insanity of political, military, strategic, economic leaders, matched by the blindness of billions, supports what has been referred to as Fermi’s Paradox ─ where the apparent absence of signals from technological civilizations in the Milky Way, may be explained in terms of a self-destruction of such civilizations.

Having ignored climate science, dismissed or fired climate scientists and repeatedly confected lies, while global heating accelerates with deleterious consequences, Homo “sapiens” is finding itself on track toward carbon poisoning of the atmosphere, the lungs of the inhabitable Earth, acidification of the hydrosphere and coating of the land with carbon and plastics.

A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist

Andrew Glikson

Books:

The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

Too late to save the climate?

by Andrew Glikson

“Without major action to reduce emissions, global temperature is on track to rise 

by 2.5°C to 4.5°C by 2100” (NASA 2023)

“We Will Not Sign Our Own Death Warrant” (a delegate at COP28)

Whether anything can be done by humans to arrest or reverse global warming and its consequences for the habitability of planet Earth remains an open question, for which neither climate science nor the ignorant hordes of politicians and economists, oblivious to the basic laws of physics, have the answer. However, it is likely that over the next centuries or longer the flow of cold water from the melting of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets will lead to a transient slowdown of the rate of warming before the large ice sheets are exhausted.

---

Having ignored climate science, dismissed climate scientists and repeatedly confected untruths, while global heating accelerates with deleterious consequences, Homo “sapiens” finds itself on track toward carbon poisoning of the atmosphere, the lungs of the inhabitable Earth, acidification of the hydrosphere and coating of the land with carbon and plastics.

In a new paper, a group of leading climate scientists (Hansen et al., 2023) indicates mean global temperature is currently accelerating toward 2.0°C above pre-industrial temperature by the middle of the decade (Figure 1). The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world over the last 43 years, on average around 3℃ warmer than it was in 1980. Over the past 30 years Antarctica has been one of the fastest-changing places on Earth, warming more than 3 times faster than the rest of the world.

[ Figure. 1. Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on the GISS
(Goddard Institute of Space Studies) analysis - by James Hansen et al., 2023. ]

As the polar regions warm, the tropical climate zones expand and the mid-latitudes, where the most fertile soils are and where the bulk of the population lives, are contracting.

Thus (Figure 2.):

• Agro-climate zones in eastern Europe experienced a northward migration velocity of 100 km per 10 years over the past 40 years.
• Northward migration of climate zones in Europe may be up to two times faster in the next decades.
• Negative impacts of heat stress are expected to non-linearly increase in large parts of southern and southeastern Europe.

[ Figure 2. (a) Agro-climate zonation of Europe based on growing season length (GSL) and active temperature sum (ATS) for the period between 1975 and 1995.The identified agro-climate zones are named as follows (going from north to south): boreal north (BON), boreal south (BOS), nemoral (NEM), continental (CON), Pannonian (PAN), northern maritime (NMA), southern maritime (SMA) and Mediterranean (MED). (b) The migration of agro-climate zones between the 1975–1995 and 1996–2016 periods. For better distinction, only the areas affected by migration of agro-climate zones are displayed (colored areas), while gray color denotes the areas where the agro-climate zones have not changed - Ceglar et al. 2019. ]

A projection by NOAA states: “While we cannot stop global warming overnight, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot (“black carbon”). This projection takes neither the amplifying feedback, i.e. from warming of the oceans, melting ice sheets, melting of the permafrost, migrating climate zones, nor the time factor into account.

Factors rendering a potential reversal of global warming in the short term unlikely include:

1. The rise of mean global heating above a level of ~1.5^oC and much higher at the poles above pre-industrial temperatures, polar-ward migration of climate zones, melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, intensification of extreme weather events, requiring major cooling of the Earth, which is unlikely within the time frame of a tribal-conflicted civilization.
   
   
2. Where scientific breakthroughs would allow effective climate mitigation, for example global cooling by CO₂ drawdown, it is questionable whether Homo sapiens ─ recorded by history as an invasive blood-stained tribal species ─ would be able to avoid destroying its home planet.

The apparent absence of radio signals from technological civilizations in the Milky Way may suggest that advanced civilizations tend to undergo self-destruction, consistent with local observations, referred to as the “Fermi Paradox”.

A factor rarely taken into account emerges from the key paper “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modelling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous”, by Hansen et al. (1996) (Figure 3.).

[ Figure 3. Surface air temperature (°C) relative to 1880-1920 for several scenarios - by James Hansen et al. 2016. ]

Here the flow of cold ice-melt water results in formation of large cold pools in the Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean (Figure 3), related to an overall decline in mean global temperatures to -0.33°C by 2096 (Figure 4.) due to the flow of cold ice-melt  water from Greenland and Antarctica.

While the collision between the cold air and water fronts and the tropical war air mass would lead to intense storms over large tracts of Earth, such transient cooling may allow Home "sapiens" a respite from global warming before its home becomes an uninhabitable planet.

[ Figure 4. Surface air temperature (◦C) relative to 1880–1920 in (a) 2065, (b) 2080, and (c) 2096. Top row is IPCC scenario A1B. Ice melt with 10-year doubling is added in other scenarios - James Hansen et al. 2016. ]

A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist

Andrew Glikson

Books:

The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

Climate change terror

The Dubai’s COP-out denial conference

- by Andrew Glikson -

The issue, betrayed, is nothing more and nothing less than the future of a multitude of species on Earth, including Homo sapiens.

Global temperature (relative to 1880-1920 mean for each month) for the 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24
El Ninos. The impact of El Nino on global temperature usually peaks early in the year (El Nino Peak
Year) following the year in which the El Nino originated. Credit: James Hansen et al. (Oct. 2023)
Figure 1. Comparative El-Nino trends 1997, 1998, 2015, 2016, 2023 relative to 1880-1920.

As confirmed by the acceleration of climate extremes, consistent with the prediction by Wallace Broecker, the authoritative climate scientist, global climate change is racing beyond tipping points (Figure 1), yet the evidence continues to be denied, including in the recent COP-28 climate conference, where climate scientists are almost nowhere to be seen.

Figure 2a. Based on NOAA’s temperature data Earth’s temperature rose by an average of 0.08° C per decade since 1880; Since 1981 the warming rate is 0.18° C per decade. The 2022 surface temperature was 0.86 °C warmer than the 20th-century average of 13.9 °C and 1.06 ˚C warmer than the pre-industrial period (1880-1900). The 10 warmest years in the historical record have all occurred since 2010.

As temperatures rise (Figure 2a), fires engulf large tracts of land, storms intensity and sea levels rise (Figure 2b), the living Earth is entering a critical stage. Having ignored the existential threat of climate change, extreme nationalism and fascism ─ the ideology of death ─ spill rivers of blood in many parts of the world.

Figure 2b. Accelerated sea level rise after Church and White, 2011 and University of Hawaii (Fast Delivery). Values in millimetres compared to the 1993-2008 average. NOAA. University of Hawaii Sea Level Centre

While the powers that be ─ politicians, CEOs, top-bureaucrats, economists and their media mouthpieces ─ proceed to propagate dangerous lies, such as the denial of climate change at the heart of the Dubai COP-28 conference.

A principal lie is that, in itself, the application of clean technologies ─ solar, wind, tide, hydrogen, may be sufficient to arrest global warming. Likewise, ignoring the export of fossil fuels in national carbon inventories, despite the dissemination of greenhouse gas emissions world-wide.

Major climate untruths propagated by governments, fossil fuel corporations and their subservient media include proposed limits on domestic emissions which are meaningless to the arrest of global warming since with continuing mining, export and combustion of fossil fuels, greenhouse gases disperse through the atmosphere regardless of where the fossil fuel is mined or burnt.

With CO₂ level reaching 418.51 ppm at a rate of ~2.5 ppm/year and methane CH₄ level reaching 1917.1 ppb at a rate of near-12 ppb per year, greenhouse gas rises are exceeding any in recent geological history, representing the most severe atmospheric crisis since the asteroid impact which killed the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. Oblivious to the physical laws on which climate science is based and to the time factor of the impending climate crisis, setting artificial targets such as “1.5°C by 2030” or “2°C by 2050”, the powers-to-be may not be aware of what life on planet Earth is facing.

Australia is the world’s third biggest exporter and fifth biggest miner of fossil fuels by CO₂ potential. hydrocarbon exports, following Russia and Saudi Arabia. “The government denies responsibility for emissions created by the vast amounts of coal and gas Australia exports overseas as one of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers, and has flatly ruled out any discussion on banning new fossil fuel projects” (McNeill, 2022).

While ongoing combustion of fossil fuels is raising greenhouse gas concentration at a rate unprecedented in the geological record, global heating being a self-amplifying process, the utilization of clean energy: solar, wind, hydropower and thermal power cannot by itself stem global warming, now rising above 420 ppm CO₂, well above the 180-280 ppm range of the preceding glacial-interglacial cycles. Such a high CO₂ level compared to that which existed in the Miocene before 5.3 million years ago when mean global temperature was about ~18.4°C, rising at a rate to which much of the fauna and flora can hardly adjust.

Nowadays as bombs keep falling, heads of governments jet around the world genuflecting to each other, signing arms deals, uttering honey words, while the corporate media discusses their official dinner menus, no solutions are reached for the worsening humanitarian crises nor the future on an uninhabitable Earth.

A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist

Andrew Glikson

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080