Methane Jump

Methane Jump - a video created by Sam Carana with methanetracker.org for Arctic-news.blogspot.com

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZQBTrKqL9w

The video shows high methane levels during the period July 16 - August 16, 2013, as recorded by IASI, MetOp2 Satellite. The video shows how high levels can get, mentioning that methane readings suddenly jumped dramatically, with levels recorded as high as 2349 ppb (on August 1, 2013). Later in August 2013, methane reached even higher levels. The image below shows readings as high as 2442 ppb on August 5, 2013.

We can count ourselves lucky that - until now - only a small part of the methane appears to be released from the Arctic seabed, but such releases threaten to send huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere rather abruptly, triggering runaway global warming and ending civilization as we know it in a matter of decades.

Below a comparison of early August methane levels over the years, created from images by Leonid Yurganov.

Below are two maps with methane lvels at over 1950 ppb, for the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere, respectively, for the period from July 16 to August 24, 2013.

The chart below shows average values of methane for the same period, with a peak level of 1862 ppb on August 2, 2013, on the Northern Hemisphere.

As the above chart illustrates, the methane jump occurred early August, 2013, both on the Northern Hemisphere and on the Southern Hemisphere. Assuming a total burden of methane in the atmosphere of roughly 5 Gt at an average value of 1800 ppb, then a simple division results in an additional burden of 2.78 Mt for each rise of one ppb, implying that a methane jump of 20 ppb corresponds with an additional burden of about 56 Mt (or 56 billion kg) of methane in the atmosphere.


Related

- Arctic Ocean is turning red
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/arctic-ocean-is-turning-red.html

- Dramatic rise in methane levels since end July 2013
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/dramatic-rise-in-methane-levels-since-end-july-2013.html

- Methane levels remain very high around the globe
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/methane-levels-remain-very-high-around-the-globe.html

- Methane levels keep rising rapidly
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/methane-levels-keep-rising-rapidly.html

- Methane as high as 2349 ppb
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/methane-as-high-as-2349-ppb.html

- Where does the methane come from?
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/where-does-the-methane-come-from.html

- Conversion table (Gt and Mt to kg, etc.)
http://arcticmethane.blogspot.com/p/fact.html

Arctic Cyclone July 2013

A cyclone is raging over Arctic.

Above satellite image is from weather.gc.ca with further images added in the video below (July 25-27, 2013). To see the video in a larger size, go to https://youtube.googleapis.com/v/YgoHBAMw_Mc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgoHBAMw_Mc

Below, a Naval Research Laboratory animation showing ice speed and drift over 30 days.

The impact of the cyclone is also clearly visible on the Naval Research Laboratory ice concentration animation below.

Related

- The Great Arctic Flush - by Paul Beckwith
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/07/the-great-arctic-flush.html

Arctic Ocean Events - Videos by Paul Beckwith

by Paul Beckwith


Massive Arctic cyclone effect on sea ice in August 2012
Part 1: August 1st to 16th, 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nli47-9dT5o

Arctic sea ice motion (speed and direction) is compared to sea ice thickness from August 1st to August 16th, 2012. Sea ice motion is then compared to meteorology (500 mb pressure heights and 200 mb vector winds).

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Massive Arctic cyclone effect on sea ice in August 2012
Part 2: August 1st to 16th, 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqwIVEpSg3w

Northern hemisphere meteorology (500mb pressure heights) and Arctic sea ice concentration compared to SST (sea surface temperatures) are examined from August 1st to August 16th, 2012 encompassing the mass persistent cyclone.

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Massive Arctic cyclone effect on sea ice in August 2012
Part 3: August 1st to 16th, 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjYxRV0fzz4

Arctic basin SSS (sea surface salinity) is compared to SSH (sea surface height) during the period August 1st to August 16th, 2012 which encompassed a massive persistent cyclone. Detailed meteorology is also examined (tropopause temperature + pressure, surface precipitable water + pressure). Also examined is ocean profile salinity and temperature from an ice tethered buoy.

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Massive Arctic cyclone effect on sea ice in August 2012
Part 4:  August 1st to 16th, 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAJRIV8YITY

The jet streams in the Arctic ocean basin are shown (200mb vector winds) from NOAA/ESRL daily data, as well as from 4 times daily data from SFSU. The data is given from August 1st to August 16th, 2012 which encompasses the massive Arctic cyclone.

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2013

Arctic sea ice thickness + motion
May 14th to June 10th, 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ljHI0VITgk

Arctic sea ice data from May 14 to June 10, 2013
Left pane shows Arctic sea ice thickness; right pane shows sea ice motion (direction and speed).

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Arctic sea ice thickness + motion
July 1st to 17th 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUZr51_yW5s

Arctic sea ice data from July 1st to July 17th, 2013. Left pane shows the Arctic sea ice thickness; right pane shows sea ice motion (direction and speed).

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Sea ice concentration, temperature, salinity, and height;
July 1st to 18th, 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icUtGqpkFx8

Arctic ocean data from US Navy for
1) sea ice concentration,
2) sea surface temperature (SST),
3) sea surface salinity (SSS), and
4) sea surface height (SSH)

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Jet streams
July 1st to July 17th 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFbJCFVSiPI

Northern hemisphere (NH) jet streams are shown from two sources:
1) NOAA/ESRL data collected daily, and
2) SFSU data collect every 6 hours. Data is given for the time period from July 1st to July 17th, 2013.

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Meteorology
July 1st to 18th 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LONJT8JbM7I

The following meteorology plots are shown for time period July 1st to July 18th, 2013 over the Arctic Ocean between 60 degrees N and 90 degrees N:
1) 500mb pressure levels,
2) 200mb vector winds (jet streams),
3) precipitable water, and
4) tropopause temperatures.

AMEG presentation, London June 16, 2012

On June 16, 2012, the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) gave a presentation on the situation in the Arctic at the Campaign against Climate Change (CaCC) conference (see video below).


AMEG from Nick Breeze on Vimeo.

Below an web-copy of the AMEG flyer distributed at the conference:

           

EVERYTHING depends on you helping the Arctic

* the Arctic is warming ever faster ⁽¹⁾

* the sea ice volume is plummeting ⁽²⁾

* which prefaces a collapse in sea ice extent ⁽³⁾

* Arctic warming already disrupting climate,
  causing unpredictable weather for farmers ⁽⁴⁾

* already escalating emissions of methane ⁽⁵⁾
  from vast store in Arctic seabed ⁽⁶⁾

* and, as methane is a potent greenhouse gas ⁽⁷⁾
  risks runaway global warming. ⁽⁸⁾

  Demand action to pull back from the brink

Demand that governments assess the threat
from Arctic methane release, and
Demand swift action to COOL THE ARCTIC.

   FIND OUT MORE - and do your part

Join our campaign at www.ameg.me

 Contact: AMEG chair, John Nissen johnnissen2003@gmail.com 
 email with subject line: AMEG campaign

The URL to the presentation is: http://vimeo.com/44171386

For more background, see the recent Message from the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) and the references below: 

1. The Arctic is warming ever faster
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/how-much-time-is-there-left-to-act.html

2. Sea ice volume is plummeting
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/06/arctic-sea-ice-volume-on-track-to-reach.html

3. which prefaces a collapse in sea ice extent
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/04/supplementary-evidence-by-prof-peter.html

4. unpredictable weather for farmers
http://global-warming.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474977688104

5. escalating emissions of methane
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/05/striking-increase-of-methane-in-arctic.html

6. from vast store in Arctic seabed
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/need-for-geo-engineering.html

7. methane is a potent greenhouse gas
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/05/video-and-poster-methane-in-arctic.html

8. runaway global warming
http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2011/04/runaway-global-warming.html

Video and poster - methane in the Arctic

Methane in the Arctic threatens to escalate into runaway global warming.

The poster shown in the video is added below. 

Click on the poster to view a higher-resolution version, for printing out and hanging it on the wall.

Methane in the Arctic

Methane is often said to have a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 21 times as strong as carbon dioxide, a figure based on IPCC assessment reports that date back to the 1990s. However, the IPCC has updated methane's GWP several times since, as illustrated in Table 1. below.

In its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007), the IPCC gives methane a GWP of 25 as much as carbon dioxide over 100 years and 72 as much as carbon dioxide over 20 years.

Furthermore, a 2009 study, by Drew Shindell et al., points out that the IPCC figures do not include direct+indirect radiative effects of aerosol responses to methane releases that increase methane's GWP to 105 over 20 years when included

Moreover, in the context of tipping points, which seems appropriate regarding methane releases in the Arctic, it makes sense to focus on a short time horizon, possibly as short as a few years.

Accordingly, methane's GWP can best be visualized as in the image below, which is also displayed mid-right on the poster above.

The image on the left shows methane's global warming potential (GWP) for different time horizons, pointing out that methane's GWP is more than 130 times that of carbon dioxide over a period of ten years.

IPCC¹ figures were used to create the blue line. The red line is based on figures in a study by Shindell et al.², which are higher as they include more effects. This study concludes that methane's GWP would likely be further increased by including ecosystem responses.

The ecosystem response can be particularly strong in the Arctic, where the seabed contains huge amounts of methane. Continued warming in the Arctic can cause large abrupt methane releases which in turn can trigger further methane releases from sediments under the sea.

This is particularly worrying, not only because of the presence of huge amounts of methane, but also because the sea is quite shallow in areas such as the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), which in the case of large abrupt releases can soon lead to oxygen depletion in the water and make that much of the methane will enter the atmosphere without being oxidized in the water.

Additionally, low water temperatures and long sea currents in the Arctic Ocean are not very friendly toward bacteria that might otherwise break down methane in the water.

For further background, also see the post The potential impact of large abrupt release of methane in the Arctic at the Arctic Methane blog³, and the FAQ page at that blog.

References:

1. IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis, Table 2.14 (2007)
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-10-2.html

2. D.T. Shindell et al., "Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions". Science vol 326: pp. 716-718 (2009)
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716.abstract

3. Sam Carana, The potential impact of large abrupt release of methane in the Arctic (2012)
http://arcticmethane.blogspot.com/2012/05/potential-impact-of-large-abrupt.html