Emissions and Temperature Rise

The image below shows the Planet by land biome, i.e. forests, grassland, desert, tundra and shrubland. Rainforests are common in equatorial areas and they have steady temperatures year-round and high precipitation allowing for evergreen and semi-evergreen trees. Boreal forests, also called Taiga, cover much of the planet’s northern latitudes and their trees are coniferous (non-shedding), while trees in temperate areas do shed their leaves (deciduous). 

Forests come with many climate benefits. Trees take carbon out of the atmosphere and store the carbon in the trees and in the soil, thus reducing global warming. Less carbon dioxide in the atmosphere also reduces ocean acidification. The top layer (canopy) of rainforests contains giant trees that can grow to heights of 75 m (about 250 ft) or more. The canopy prevents much sunlight from reaching the ground, thus cooling the surface locally. Trees hold the soil together and can pump up water from deep in the soil and, through evaporation, keep the surface and soil cool, thus also avoiding erosion and reducing fire hazards.  

So, trees are responsible for cooling in many ways. Trees can darken the surface, which can cause more sunlight to be absorbed, thus resulting in more warming, but trees can also cause cooling in another way. Trees also release terpines and other biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) into the air. These BVOCs can react chemically in the atmosphere to form aerosols that reflect incoming solar radiation and thereby cause global cooling. These aerosols can also act to start clouds to form that result in rainfall and that shade the surface, reflecting more solar radiation back into space and thus cause further global cooling. 

While BVOCs have many benefits, they can also indirectly increase potent greenhouse gases including ozone and methane by depleting hydroxyl. A study led by Gillian Thornhill found that this could cause half the cooling effects of BVOCs to be lost. A recent study led by James Weber found that, when all the effects are combined, they can reduce the net climate benefit of wide scale tree-planting by up to one third.

The above image shows that organic matter aerosol optical thickness (55 nm) as high as 0.93 τ was recorded over North Australia on October 14, 2025 06:00 UTC. 

A recent study led by Hannah Carle finds that a transition from sink to source has occurred for the aboveground woody biomass of the Australian moist tropical forests. Forests need to be supported and not just for their capacity to sequester carbon. The net climate benefit of trees is huge and is underestimated. While trees can cause some warming, they also cause more cooling. Their BVOCs are responsible for some depletion of hydroxyl, but this should be no reason to withhold support for forests. Instead, climate action should strongly support forests, while greater hydroxyl abundance is best accomplished by cleaning up industry sectors such as agriculture, transport and electricity generation. 

IPCC downplays the temperature rise

The IPCC downplays the temperature rise in efforts to hide some of the most effective and necessary action, e.g. by presenting the impact of land use, gases and aerosols in most peculiar ways. Instead of comparing the climate impact of forests versus agriculture in commonly comprehensible language, such as a rise in degrees Celsius, the IPCC uses technical terms to make things less comprehensible for the typical reader (and voter). 

As an example, the IPCC seeks to present deforestation as a change in land use that results in greater cooling, e.g. by arguing that deserts reflect more light back into space. As another example, the IPCC makes it look as if the temperature started rising only from 1850-1900, in efforts to hide the huge impact of deforestation that took place before those years. 

Of the 14.9 billion hectares of land on the planet, only 71% of it is habitable – the other 29% is either covered by ice and glaciers, or is barren land such as deserts, salt flats, or dunes. About 10,000 years ago, 57% of habitable land was covered by forest and 42% was covered by wild grassland and shrubs. In 2023, 45% of habitable land was used for agriculture, as illustrated by the image below. 

People have been herding animals and burning or cutting down trees for thousands of years. While much of the forests could initially regrow, the result of people's activities was a strong increase in emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and black carbon. 

The rise from 1750 to 2024 in methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide is illustrated by the image on the right, based on IPCC and WMO data.  

While emission by people did accelerate since the start of the Industrial Revolution and even more recently, the rise in emission by people had already started thousands of years ago with growth in agriculture, herding of animals and associated deforestation, as illustrated by the combination image below, based on Ruddiman et al. (2015). 

The temperature has risen accordingly since those times.

[ from earlier post ]

Emission caused by people's activities include carbon dioxide, methane and black carbon. A 2013 study by Bond et al. calculates that black carbon has a warming effect of about 1.1 W/m², part of which is caused by black carbon darkening the snow and ice cover since pre-industrial times, as discussed on the aerosols page. By some calculations, the temperature in 1520 had risen by 0.29°C, compared to thousands of years earlier.

September 2025 temperature anomaly

The image below shows how much higher the September 2025 temperature was than it was in 1951-1980. 

The above image shows that the September 2025 temperature anomaly was high over both poles and especially high over some areas in Antarctica, where anomalies higher than +10°C versus 1951-1980 were recorded. 

As the image below shows, the temperatures recorded over Antarctica throughout September 2025 were higher than in most earlier years, while a record daily high temperature was recorded on October 10, 2025, a +3.62°C anomaly compared to 1979-2000. The inset shows high temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 at both poles on October 10, 2025.

The image below shows that the global September 2025 temperature anomaly was 1.306°C higher than 1951-1980. Note that the 2025 anomalies were reached under borderline La Niña conditions that suppress temperatures and that the monthly temperature anomaly would be significantly higher when calculated from 1850-1900, which is typically used by the IPCC as baseline. 

[ Temperature Rise, click on images to enlarge ]

The full historic temperature rise and the rise to come soon could be much higher, as described on the image and below. The inset is also displayed and discussed in more detail below. 

Emissions and Temperature Rise

The observed temperature rise (O) is actually masked by aerosols (M) and the IPCC only includes the rise from the period 1850-1900, ignoring the rise before the period 1850-1900 (P) and the rise that took place to negate the natural fall in temperature. Aerosols could fall out of the air soon, so when adding things up (E1+E2), the historic temperature rise from pre-industrial (O+M+P) is huge. 

When also taking into account that the temperature would have fallen naturally (i.e. in the absence of these emissions and in line with Milankovitch cycles, the rise caused by people to negate that could also be included (E3), adding up to an even higher historic temperature rise (O+M+P+H).

Additionally, the full impact of all past emissions may not be fully felt yet, e.g. the full effect of carbon dioxide emissions reaches its peak only a decade after emission (E4). Furthermore, humans are likely to continue to cause emissions in the near future (E5). Finally, additional releases of greenhouse gases are likely to come from what was once called permafrost and from sinks turning into sources, resulting in an additional rise that's already baked into the cake (E6). Therefore, the historic rise plus the rise to come soon (O+M+P+H+F) may approach 5°C.  

The diagram below further illustrates the importance of feedbacks and deforestation. Removal of trees has caused deforestation and soil carbon loss since prehistoric times, in turn causing emissions including carbon dioxide, methane and black carbon, while also reducing cooling aerosols released by trees and while also reducing the heat buffer of evaporation that previously cooled the atmosphere. Since prehistoric times, burning wood and deforestation has caused emissions of black carbon and dust that blackened the snow and ice cover, thus speeding up its decline. 

[ from earlier post ]

The image below illustrates how much the temperature may have risen from pre-industrial times and how much potential there is for a 3°C rise as early as in 2026.

[ from earlier post ]

Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• NASA - Earth by Biome

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/biome

• Nullschool.net

https://earth.nullschool.net

• Climate-driven chemistry and aerosol feedbacks in CMIP6 Earth system models - by Gillian Thornhill et al. (2021) 

https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/1105/2021

• Missing the forest for the trees: The role of forests in Earth’s climate goes far beyond carbon storage - by Sarah Blichner and James Weber (2024) 
https://thebulletin.org/2024/05/missing-the-forest-for-the-trees-the-role-of-forests-in-earths-climate-goes-far-beyond-carbon-storage

• Chemistry-albedo feedbacks offset up to a third of forestation’s CO2 removal benefits - by James Weber et al. (2024) 

https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.adg6196

• Aerosols

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html

• Aboveground biomass in Australian tropical forests now a net carbon source - by Hannah Carle et al. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09497-8

discussed on Facebook at: 

• Pre-industrial

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• The World lost one third of forests

https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests

• WMO news release: Carbon dioxide levels increase by record amount to new highs in 2024
https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/carbon-dioxide-levels-increase-record-amount-new-highs-2024
WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin - No. 21 (issued October 15, 2025)
https://wmo.int/files/greenhouse-gas-bulletin-no-21
discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10163357891699679

• Record low Arctic sea ice volume minimum highlights methane danger

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/10/record-low-arctic-sea-ice-volume-highlights-methane-danger.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Double Blue Ocean Event 2024?

A double Blue Ocean Event could occur in 2024. Both Antarctic sea ice and Arctic sea ice could virtually disappear in 2024. A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) occurs when sea ice extent falls to 1 million km² or less, which could occur early 2024 for Antarctic sea ice and in Summer 2024 in the Northern Hemisphere for Arctic sea ice.

Antarctic sea ice loss

The situation regarding Antarctic sea ice extent is pictured in the image below, which shows that on December 12, 2023, Antarctic sea ice extent was 9.499 million km², a record low for the time of year.

[ image adapted from NSIDC ]

Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.788 million km² on February 21, 2023. Antarctic sea ice extent may well be much lower in February 2024, with sea ice loss fuelled by several self-reinforcing feedback loops, as discussed in an earlier post.

Arctic sea ice loss

The situation regarding Arctic sea ice extent is pictured in the image below.

[ image adapted from NSIDC ]

The above image shows that on December 12, 2023, Arctic sea ice extent was 9.499 million km², third lowest low for the time of year, behind 2016 and 2020.

Temperature November 2023



The above image shows the November 2023 temperature anomaly compared to a 1951-1980 base. The image below also shows the November 2023 temperature anomaly, but it is not compared to a 1951-1980 base (NASA's default), it is instead compared to a 1900-1923 base.

Of course, the temperature anomaly will be much higher when compared to pre-industrial. Further adjustments are required, because the NASA data are for sea surface temperatures (rather than temperatures of the air 2 meters above the sea surface). Also note the grey areas on the above map, signifying that no data are available for earlier years. This especially affects the Arctic, where the anomalies are highest, so disregarding these data is not appropriate. In the image below, data are adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect all this, as discussed at the pre-industrial page.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image is created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies vs 1900-1923, adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperature, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base. Blue: Polynomial trend based on Jan.1880-Nov. 2023 data. Magenta: Polynomial trend based on Jan. 2010-Nov. 2023 data.

The above images illustrate that temperatures are rising strongly in the Arctic, which gives a dire warning that a Blue Ocean Event could occur in Summer 2024 in the Northern Hemisphere that could further speed up global temperatures, as illustrated by the magenta-colored trend in the above image.

The situation is dire

Temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere were more than 2°C above 1951-1980 recently (2.024°C in October 2023 and 2.058 in November 2023), as illustrated by the above image. Note that anomalies on the image are calculated from 1951-1980 and that anomalies from pre-industrial are higher.

Land-only temperature anomalies can be much higher than land+ocean anomalies, since oceans act as a buffer. It is therefore most important to look at the land-only temperature anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere, since that is where the highest anomalies occur, at the very places where most people live. Furthermore, as temperatures keep rising, more extreme weather events occur, with an increase in intensity, frequency, duration and area covered by such events. The urban heat island effect can further add to the rising high temperature peaks reached in cities.

The precautionary principle urges the world to closely watch peak hourly local wet-bulb globe temperatures, rather than to hide the full wrath of the temperature rise by focusing on global temperature anomalies that are compared to recent base periods and that are averaged over periods going back ten years or longer. 

Temperatures are rising most rapidly in the Arctic, which contributes to the occurrence of more extreme weather events. Low temperatures in Winter in the Arctic are essential to build up ice thickness to preserve sea ice as the melting season starts.

[ Climatology temperatures are 1979-2000 averages and anomalies are calculated
from 1979-2000 averages. Black line: 2023. Orange line: 2022. Grey line: 2016. ]

Arctic temperature hit a record high for the time of year on December 15, 2023, and an anomaly of 5°C, as the above image shows. Arctic anomalies are the highest in the world, as illustrated by the record 8.3°C anomaly that was reached on November 18, 2016. Since the chance that the current El Niño will slow down soon is minimal, Arctic anomalies could reach even higher records in the next few months.

On December 12, 2023, as said, Arctic sea ice extent was third lowest for the time of year, i.e. only 2016 and 2020 were lower. The years 2016 and 2020 had the highest annual temperature (a tie) on record and this annual temperature record is likely to be surpassed in 2023, while 2024 may be even worse, as the chance that the current El Niño will slow down soon is minimal.

[ Water Vapor tipping point ]

In the video below, Anton Petrov discusses the runaway greenhouse effect. 

This is important, as a very small increase in solar irradiation – leading to an increase of the global Earth temperature, of only a few tens of degrees – would be enough to trigger an irreversible runaway process on Earth and make our planet as inhospitable as Venus, a recent study concludes, as discussed at this post.

A temperature rise of more than 10°C could unfold as early as by end 2026, due to contributions of gases (including water vapor), aerosols, albedo changes and further elements, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed, which could add a further 8°C to the rise.

This rise could in turn cause the water vapor tipping point to be crossed. The rise in water vapor alone could from then on suffice to push temperatures up further, in a runaway greenhouse process in which evaporation causes a global surface temperature rise of several hundred degrees Celsius. 

Arctic sea ice could have been even lower in extent, had the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) not been slowing down. As a result of AMOC's slowing down, less ocean heat is reaching the Arctic Ocean. Instead, a huge amount of ocean heat has been accumulating in the North Atlantic and much of this heat could soon be pushed abruptly into the Arctic Ocean as storms temporarily speed up currents that carry ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic sea ice volume is getting very low, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from dmi.dk. 

Meanwhile, Earth's radiation imbalance is very high, emissions are high and rising, and politicians refuse to act responsibly, all contributing to further deterioration of the situation, with the danger that ocean heat will reach and destabilize methane hydrates that are contained in sediments at the seafloor of oceans, resulting in massive methane eruptions, further pushing up global temperatures, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one and this one. 

As more people become aware of the dire situation, widespread panic may set in, as this 2007 post warned about. People may stop showing up for work, resulting in a rapid loss of the aerosol masking effect, as industries that now co-emit cooling aerosols (such as sulfates) grind to a halt. Many people may start to collect and burn more wood, resulting in an increase in emissions that speed up the temperature rise. As temperatures rise, more fires could also break out in forests, peatlands and urban areas including landfills and waste dumps, further contributing to emissions that speed up the temperature rise.

Ominously, the highest methane levels on record (surface flasks) were recently reached at Barrow, Alaska, U.S., as illustrated by the image below.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group. 

Links

• NSIDC - Interactive sea ice chart
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• NOAA - December 2023 El Niño update
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2023-el-nino-update-adventure

• Climate Reanalyzer - November 2023 temperature anomaly
https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps

• Climate Reanalyzer - Monthly reanalysis time series
https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_tseries

• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily surface air temperature, Arctic
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic

• NASA - maps
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps

• NASA - custom plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• First exploration of the runaway greenhouse transition with a 3D General Circulation Model - by Guillaume Chaverot et al.
https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html

Also discussed at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161182685569679

• Polar Portal - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Barrow, Alaska

https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Will temperatures keep rising fast?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html

• Will temperatures keep rising fast?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html

• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html

• Transforming Society

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Climate change terror

The Dubai’s COP-out denial conference

- by Andrew Glikson -

The issue, betrayed, is nothing more and nothing less than the future of a multitude of species on Earth, including Homo sapiens.

Global temperature (relative to 1880-1920 mean for each month) for the 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24
El Ninos. The impact of El Nino on global temperature usually peaks early in the year (El Nino Peak
Year) following the year in which the El Nino originated. Credit: James Hansen et al. (Oct. 2023)
Figure 1. Comparative El-Nino trends 1997, 1998, 2015, 2016, 2023 relative to 1880-1920.

As confirmed by the acceleration of climate extremes, consistent with the prediction by Wallace Broecker, the authoritative climate scientist, global climate change is racing beyond tipping points (Figure 1), yet the evidence continues to be denied, including in the recent COP-28 climate conference, where climate scientists are almost nowhere to be seen.

Figure 2a. Based on NOAA’s temperature data Earth’s temperature rose by an average of 0.08° C per decade since 1880; Since 1981 the warming rate is 0.18° C per decade. The 2022 surface temperature was 0.86 °C warmer than the 20th-century average of 13.9 °C and 1.06 ˚C warmer than the pre-industrial period (1880-1900). The 10 warmest years in the historical record have all occurred since 2010.

As temperatures rise (Figure 2a), fires engulf large tracts of land, storms intensity and sea levels rise (Figure 2b), the living Earth is entering a critical stage. Having ignored the existential threat of climate change, extreme nationalism and fascism ─ the ideology of death ─ spill rivers of blood in many parts of the world.

Figure 2b. Accelerated sea level rise after Church and White, 2011 and University of Hawaii (Fast Delivery). Values in millimetres compared to the 1993-2008 average. NOAA. University of Hawaii Sea Level Centre

While the powers that be ─ politicians, CEOs, top-bureaucrats, economists and their media mouthpieces ─ proceed to propagate dangerous lies, such as the denial of climate change at the heart of the Dubai COP-28 conference.

A principal lie is that, in itself, the application of clean technologies ─ solar, wind, tide, hydrogen, may be sufficient to arrest global warming. Likewise, ignoring the export of fossil fuels in national carbon inventories, despite the dissemination of greenhouse gas emissions world-wide.

Major climate untruths propagated by governments, fossil fuel corporations and their subservient media include proposed limits on domestic emissions which are meaningless to the arrest of global warming since with continuing mining, export and combustion of fossil fuels, greenhouse gases disperse through the atmosphere regardless of where the fossil fuel is mined or burnt.

With CO₂ level reaching 418.51 ppm at a rate of ~2.5 ppm/year and methane CH₄ level reaching 1917.1 ppb at a rate of near-12 ppb per year, greenhouse gas rises are exceeding any in recent geological history, representing the most severe atmospheric crisis since the asteroid impact which killed the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. Oblivious to the physical laws on which climate science is based and to the time factor of the impending climate crisis, setting artificial targets such as “1.5°C by 2030” or “2°C by 2050”, the powers-to-be may not be aware of what life on planet Earth is facing.

Australia is the world’s third biggest exporter and fifth biggest miner of fossil fuels by CO₂ potential. hydrocarbon exports, following Russia and Saudi Arabia. “The government denies responsibility for emissions created by the vast amounts of coal and gas Australia exports overseas as one of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers, and has flatly ruled out any discussion on banning new fossil fuel projects” (McNeill, 2022).

While ongoing combustion of fossil fuels is raising greenhouse gas concentration at a rate unprecedented in the geological record, global heating being a self-amplifying process, the utilization of clean energy: solar, wind, hydropower and thermal power cannot by itself stem global warming, now rising above 420 ppm CO₂, well above the 180-280 ppm range of the preceding glacial-interglacial cycles. Such a high CO₂ level compared to that which existed in the Miocene before 5.3 million years ago when mean global temperature was about ~18.4°C, rising at a rate to which much of the fauna and flora can hardly adjust.

Nowadays as bombs keep falling, heads of governments jet around the world genuflecting to each other, signing arms deals, uttering honey words, while the corporate media discusses their official dinner menus, no solutions are reached for the worsening humanitarian crises nor the future on an uninhabitable Earth.

A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist

Andrew Glikson

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

A Climate of Betrayal

by Andrew Glikson

“All grimly true, but they can be sure that they won't be recorded for their crimes in history – 

because there won't be any history” (Noam Chomsky)

No words can express the betrayal of humanity and nature as represented by the ease in which originally progressive parties and ‘leaders’ can reverse their original environmental credentials by supporting coal and gas production and export once they are in power. While claims are made of reducing domestic emissions, the export of coal, gas and oil from many parts of the world and the dissemination of greenhouse gases remains high or is rising.

No science fiction has been written exposing an elite of multi-billionaires, corporate executives, arms merchants, media moguls, megalomaniac lunatics and their political mouthpieces pushing humanity and species to extinction. The current promotion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) ensures neither human intelligence nor human sentiments would be able to stem cybernetic insanity.

The inexorable rise of mean global temperatures to above 1.5°C higher than in 1750, at a rate exceeding those of the great mass extinctions of species and, according to the IPCC toward 4°C late in the century, renders extreme consequences for many life forms as a consequence of abrupt weather events and changes in the chemistry of the oceans, including acidification and dissolution of carbonate shells.

As the electronic media diverts attention of people to trivial games, canned laughter, sport carnivals and petty crimes, real criminals squander $trillions on looming wars and billionaire playboys spend the world’s dwindling resources on space rackets, out of the mouth of hungry children. The critical issues of war and peace, the fate of future generations and survival of species are rarely overlooked in ‘democratic’ elections.

A majority of the post-WWII generation and their offspring, trapped opposite fluorescent screens that scream canned laughter, and propagate commercial and political lies, are only dimly aware of the magnitude of even a ‘limited’ nuclear war, where radioactive emanations from a single large city cloud crops and induce famine for many weeks or months.

Consequences of global warming and a nuclear exchange include:

• Inundation of coastal cities.
• Increasing risks for food production leading to malnutrition.
• Many dry regions becoming dryer and wet regions wetter.
• Unprecedented heat waves.
• Water scarcity in many regions.
• Tropical cyclones.
• Loss of biodiversity, including coral reefs.

The closest analogy to the environmental disruption during the late Anthropocene (the period during which human had a significant environmental impact on the Earth) include the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary (PETM).

The history of Anthropocene civilizations records regular bloodsheds between tribes and nations out of control, called ‘war’. Intermittent waves of hostility leading to violence and incessant fighting occurred repeatedly since the Neolithic, more recently, continuing since the 16th centuries, culminating with the threat of a nuclear war.

Wars erupt as an expression of manipulated mass unrest, even where little or no ideological gaps exist between rival states. Irrational hate and fear, mostly instilled by vested interests end up in the sacrifice of the lives of millions.

According to the clock of the atomic scientists it is 90 seconds to midnight.

Andrew Glikson

A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

The myth of “net zero emissions by 2050”

by Andrew Glikson

[ Oil and gas fracking pads in Texas. Photo: Dennis Dimick ]

It should raise people’s hopes to believe “net zero emissions by 2050” will arrest or at least slow-down global warming, had it not been yet another cruel hoax perpetrated in the wake of more than 50 years of obfuscation and denial of environment and climate science.

This is because:

• The proposed zero emission by 2050 overlooks the long term nature of ongoing investments, mining and drilling for carbohydrates, such as new oil fields as in the North Atlantic and the sub-Arctic, new coal fields such as in the Galilee Basin, or fracking for coal seam gas in North America and Australia. According to Columbia University, “The gas industry and investors have plans to build over $70 billion of new gas-fired power plants through 2025, according to two Rocky Mountain Institute reports”.
  
  Thus it is reported “the State Bank of India might lend $1 billion to Bravus, the absurdly renamed Adani Mining, to finance its Carmichael coal and rail project in the Galilee Basin”. Likewise “At the end of last year Australia overtook Qatar to become the world’s largest exporter of LNG, and now even more companies are investing in infrastructure throughout the region to turn Western Australia into a global LNG hub.”
  
  
• The proposed reductions in emissions are to be mainly confined to domestic emissions, neglecting carbon exports that end up mixing in the atmosphere and oceans, returning to harm life on Earth. Australia, China and the US are the largest CO2 emitters and Saudi Arabia, Russia and Australia are the largest CO2 exporters. On a per capita basis, Australia’s carbon footprint, including exports, is nine times higher than China’s, four times that of the US, and 37 times that of India.
  
  National emissions inventories exclude the large CO2 transfers associated with international trade, such as has grown dramatically since the early 1990s. This hampered overall progress to cut total CO2 emissions over the past few decades. When CO2 imports are considered, the reduction in emissions achieved by many developed countries is much smaller than would otherwise appear.
  
  Australia mines about 57 tonnes of CO2 potential per person each year, about 10 times the global average, and is the world's third-biggest exporter of hydrocarbons behind Russia and Saudi Arabia. In total Australia emits about five per cent of global total CO2 once exports are included. A Fact Check estimated that Australia's domestic emissions plus the emissions embedded in its exports added to 1,712 million tonnes in 2016. The total falls from 3.6 per cent to 3.3 per cent of global emissions.
  
  
• The proposed reductions take no account of the accelerated rise of temperatures due to the radiative effects of the rising greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere, which by 2050 will be tracking toward 600 parts per million CO2-equivalent of combined carbon and nitrous oxide gases. These are already generating amplifying feedbacks from land and ocean which drive temperatures higher, rendering reductions of emissions ineffective. At that stage the large ice sheets would experience irreversible melting.

For this reason, the essential reductions in emission must be accompanied with sequestration of atmospheric greenhouse gases by at least the amount of annual emissions.

The authorities are not listening to what climate science is indicating. Instead they are consulting with economists ignorant of the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere and of the consequences of global heating. An example is the absurd idea as if “a rise of 4°C in global average temperature would be “optimal” when the costs and benefits of mitigating climate change are balanced”.

Currently, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing at the approximate rate of 2 to 3 parts per million per year. This leaves the fundamental question unanswered: What, if anything, would halt the fatal progression toward +4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, given that according to the IPCC (cited by the World Bank) a “four degree world would be one of unprecedented heatwaves, severe drought and major floods in many regions”. In perspective, global warming of the 20-21st centuries is at least 70 times faster than the rise of about 5 degrees Celsius over a period of about 7000 years since the last interglacial period. At this rate of environmental change mass extinctions are inevitable. When Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (former climate adviser to the German Chancellor and the EU) was asked about the difference between a +2°C and a +4°C world, he replied: “Human civilization”.

 

Andrew Glikson

Dr Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
ANU Climate Science Institute
ANU Planetary Science Institute
Canberra, Australia


Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
http://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442

There is no time to lose

Carbon dioxide levels continue at record levels, despite COVID-19 lockdown, the WMO reports. The increase in carbon dioxide from 2018 to 2019 was larger than that observed from 2017 to 2018 and larger than the average annual growth rate over the last decade.

The rise has continued in 2020. The lockdown did cut emissions of many pollutants and greenhouse gases, but any impact on carbon dioxide levels - the result of cumulative past and current emissions - is in fact no bigger than the normal year to year fluctuations. 

“Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for centuries and in the ocean for even longer. The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO₂ was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3°C warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now. But there weren’t 7.7 billion inhabitants,” said WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas.

“The COVID-19 pandemic is not a solution for climate change. However, it does provide us with a platform for more sustained and ambitious climate action to reduce emissions to net zero through a complete transformation of our industrial, energy and transport systems. The needed changes are economically affordable and technically possible and would affect our everyday life only marginally. It is to be welcomed that a growing number of countries and companies have committed themselves to carbon neutrality,” he said. “There is no time to lose.”

Above image illustrates the steep rise in methane, compared to carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide. Levels of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide reached new highs in 2019, reports the WMO. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) rose to 410.5 ppm (148% of its pre-industrial level), methane (CH₄) to 1877 ppb (260% of pre-industrial) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) to 332.0 ppb (123% of pre-industrial).

So, given that there's no time to lose, why mention carbon neutrality, and not 100% clean, renewable energy? Also, let's not lose sight of other emissions such as N₂O. Yes, dramatic cuts in CO₂ emissions do need to happen rapidly, and yes, this does require a complete transformation of industry, energy and transport. Nonetheless, N₂O emissions are also important and most N₂O emissions result from land use, such as food production and waste handling, which must also change. 

[ from earlier post ]

The IPCC (AR5) gave N₂O a lifetime of 121 years and a 100-year global warming potential (GWP) of 265 times that of carbon dioxide. Furthermore, N₂O also causes stratospheric ozone depletion. 

The IPCC, in special report Climate Change and Land, found that agriculture, forestry and other land use activities accounted for some 13% of CO₂, 44% of CH₄, and 82% of N₂O emissions from human activities globally during 2007-2016, representing 23% of total net anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases.

If emissions associated with pre- and post-production activities in the global food system are included, the emissions could be another 14% higher, i.e. as high as 37% of total net anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the IPCC added.

Let's get back to that 23%. The IPCC calculates this 23% by using a GWP of 28 for CH₄. Over the first few years, however, the GWP of CH₄ is more than 150, as discussed in an earlier post. When using a GWP of 150, land use emissions rise from 23% to 31%, as the image on the right shows. Add another 14% from further food-related emissions and the total share for land use becomes 45% of people's emissions. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

In other words, all polluting emissions need to be reduced. Moreover, a recent paper by Jorgen Randers et al. points out that, even if all greenhouse gas emissions by people could stop immediately and even if the temperature anomaly could fall to 0.5°C above pre-industrial, greenhouse gas levels would start rising again after 2150 and keep rising for centuries to come. Another recent paper, by Tapio Schneider et al., points out that solar geoengineering may not prevent strong warming from direct effects of CO₂ on stratocumulus cloud cover. 

This means that the threat is even more menacing when including large methane releases that threaten to occur as temperatures keep rising in the Arctic and sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean threaten to get destabilized, resulting in the eruption of huge amounts of methane. 

What is the joint impact of carbon dioxide and methane? The WMO reported CO₂ levels of 410.5 ppm and CH₄ levels of 1877 ppb in 2019. As discussed in an earlier post, over the first few years after release, methane's GWP is more than 150 times higher than carbon dioxide. Accordingly, the 2019 level of 1877 ppb of methane translates into global heating of 281.55 ppm CO₂e. Together, that makes 692.5 ppm CO₂e, which is 507.5 ppm CO₂e away from the 1200 ppm CO₂e cloud tipping point. 

The image below illustrates that the joint impact of carbon dioxide and methane could cause the 1200 ppm CO₂e tipping point to be crossed in 2040. The image uses IPCC and WMO through 2019 to display three lines, with added trends: 

- Black line: CO₂ in parts per million (ppm);
- Red line: CH₄ in ppm CO₂e, using a GWP of 150;
- Purple line: CO₂ and CH₄ in ppm CO₂e.

Trends for CH₄ are selected to reflect a steep rise as a result of methane hydrate destabilization. 

How could such a steep rise in methane levels occur?

Stronger methane releases from subsea permafrost can be expected, says a paper by Natalia Shakhova et al. A 1000-fold methane increase could occur, resulting in a rise of as much as 6°C within 80 years, with more to follow after that, according to a paper by Atsushi Obata et al.

Seafloor methane releases could be triggered by strong winds causing an influx of warm, salty water into the Arctic ocean (see this earlier post and this page). 

Since little hydroxyl is present in the atmosphere over the Arctic, it is much harder for this methane to get broken down.

Even relatively small methane releases could cause tremendous heating, if they reach the stratosphere.

Methane rises from the Arctic Ocean concentrated in plumes, pushing away the aerosols and gases that slow down the rise of methane elsewhere, which enables methane erupting from the Arctic Ocean to rise straight up fast and reach the stratosphere. 

The IPCC (AR5) gave methane a lifetime of 12.4 years. The IPCC (TAR) gave stratospheric methane a lifetime of 120 years, adding that less than 7% of methane did reach the stratosphere at the time.

The images on the right illustrate this. On November 20 pm, 2020, the MetOp-1 satellite recorded high methane levels over the Arctic Ocean at 293 mb (top image on the right). This corresponds with an altitude of some 9 km altitude, which is where the Stratosphere starts at the North Pole. The global mean methane level at that altitude was 1921 ppb.

The next images show areas with high levels of methane, as indicated by the magenta color, remaining present over the Arctic Ocean even at higher altitudes.

The higher the altitude, the more methane will concentrate over the Equator. Yet at 229 mb, high methane levels are still visible north of Siberia, while global mean methane levels were still very high, i.e. 1916 ppb. 

Even at 156 mb, there still are high methane levels visible (green circle, third image right). 

The conversion table shows that the Tropopause, which separates the Troposphere from the Stratosphere, is lower over the North Pole (at about 9 km altitude) than over the Equator (17 km altitude). 

The fifth image on the right, from an earlier post, shows that methane has accumulated more at higher altitudes over the years. 

The sixth image on the right shows that the MetOp-1 satellite recorded mean methane levels of 1925 ppb at 293 mb on December 2, 2020 am, with high methane levels present over the Arctic Ocean.

The next image shows that a peak methane level of 2715 ppb was recorded by the SNPP satellite on November 30, 2020 pm at 399.1 mb.

The animation on the right shows high methane levels recorded by the MetOp-2 satellite on December 2, 2020 pm, at a number of altitudes: 

- At 1000 mb (close to ground/sea level) a peak methane level of 2129 ppb shows up north of Svalbard. 

- At 918 mb, methane peaks at 2408 ppb and high methane levels show up over the Artic Ocean.

- At 815 mb, methane reaches a peak of 2582 ppb and high methane levels are visible over larger parts of the Arctic Ocean. 

- At 742 mb, methane reaches a peak of 2663 ppb and high methane levels are visible over even larger parts of the Arctic Ocean. 

- At 586 mb, methane reaches a peak of 2518 ppb and high methane levels are visible over a huge part of the Arctic Ocean, while hardly any high levels of methane are visible over land. 

- At 293 mb, methane reaches a peak of 2411 ppb and high levels of methane are still visible over the Arctic Ocean, even at this high altitude. 

[ from earlier post ]

In conclusion, a huge temperature rise could occur soon, even with a relatively small increase in carbon dioxide and methane releases. 

As above image illustrates, a temperature rise of more than as 10°C could eventuate as soon as 2026 when taking into account aerosol changes, albedo changes, water vapor, nitrous oxide, etc., as an earlier analysis shows. 

The joint impact of these warming elements threatens the cloud tipping point to be crossed and the resulting 8°C rise would then come on top of the 10°C rise, resulting in a total rise of 18°C, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

Indeed, there is no time to lose. It is high time to stop the denial of the size of the threats and challenges that the world faces, the harm inflicted and the speed at which developments could strike. 

The situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan. 

Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• When will we die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• IPCC AR5 Workgroup 1
https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar5/

and

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf

• IPCC Report Climate Change and Land
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/08/ipcc-report-climate-change-and-land.html

• WMO Greenhouse GasBulletin
https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/library/wmo-greenhouse-gas-bulletin

• WMO news release: Carbon dioxide levels continue at record levels, despite COVID-19 lockdown
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/carbon-dioxide-levels-continue-record-levels-despite-covid-19-lockdown

• Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, by Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov and Evgeny Chuvilin (2019)
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251

• Damage of Land Biosphere due to Intense Warming by 1000-Fold Rapid Increase in Atmospheric Methane: Estimation with a Climate–Carbon Cycle Model - by Atsushi Obata et al. (2012) 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00533.1

• Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming, by Tapio Schneider et al. (2019)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0310-1

• Solar geoengineering may not prevent strong warming from direct effects of CO2 on stratocumulus cloud cover - by Tapio Schneider et al. 

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/11/10/2003730117

• An earth system model shows self-sustained thawing of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020 - by Jorgen Randers et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75481-z

• Most Important Message Ever
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html

• A Temperature Rise Of 18 Degrees Celsius

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/a-temperature-rise-of-18-degrees-celsius.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• A rise of 18°C or 32.4°F by 2026?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-rise-of-18c-or-324f-by-2026.html

• Temperatures threaten to become unbearable

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/09/temperatures-threaten-to-become-unbearable.html

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html