Arctic News: albedo

Showing posts with label albedo. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Will Antarctic sea ice survive the El Niño?

Antarctic sea ice is in danger of collapse, for a number of reasons, as discussed in an earlier post.

High Sea Surface Temperatures

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, illustrates that on October 12, 2026, the sea surface temperature (60°S–60°N) was 20.98°C, and 0.77°C above 1991-2020, the highest anomaly on record.

On October 15, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N,0-360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.09°C, and a record high anomaly of 1.03°C versus 1982-2010, as illustrated by the peak on the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer.

The map on the above image (inset bottom) shows global sea surface temperature anomalies on October 15, 2026. Sea surface temperatures look set to remain high or get even higher due to El Niño.

El Niño

The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows that the sea surface temperature was 30.03°C in the Niño 3.4 region on October 15, 2026, an anomaly of +3.42°C from 1982-2010.

The map (inset at the top of the above image) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on October 15, 2026, around the globe, with the Niño 3.4 region highlighted. The Niño 3.4 region is most indicative of El Niño strength.

The combination image on the right shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1981-2010 in the Niño 1+2 region (located closer to South America). A rise of well over 6°C (from under -1.5°C in the top image to +4.87°C in the bottom image) occurred within 10 months.

The image below compares the 2026 El Niño with earlier El Niños by highlighting sea surface temperatures compared to 1951-1980 in the Niño 3.4 region, with the dotted line indicating the significance of potentially exceeding 4°C above this base.

The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows El Niño forecasts from October 1, 2026, for the Niño1+2 region (left) and the Niño3 region (right).

The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that the El Niño's peak strength is forecast to occur late 2026.

Antarctic sea ice is already very low. The most rapid loss of Antarctic sea ice typically takes place in November and December, so this year this coincides with a Monster El Niño at its peak strength. The danger is that an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event may occur soon, as early as late 2026, i.e. well before February when Antarctic minimum sea ice typically occurs.

Earth's Energy Imbalance

Earth's Energy Imbalance keeps increasing, as illustrated by the image below, by Leon Simons.

Southern Ocean's sea surface becoming more saline

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, illustrates that the monthly total column precipitable water anomaly in September 2026 was the highest on record.

On September 28, 2026, the surface air temperature in the tropics was 26.41°C, the highest temperature on record for that day and 1.33°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. The map (inset bottom) shows surface air temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on that day, with the tropics highlighted.

The temperature difference between the tropics and parts of Antarctica can be huge, enabling hot and moist air to get carried in the form of atmospheric rivers to Antarctica. As a result, temperature anomalies can be high over Antarctica. The image below shows temperature anomalies on October 5, 2026.

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows precipitable water standardized anomalies on October 5, 2026.

The images below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a forecast of precipitable water standardized anomalies for October 6, 2026.

These atmospheric rivers result in snow falling over Antarctica and thickening of the snow layer there. Evaporation of freshwater from the Southern Ocean has contributed to the sea surface of the Southern Ocean becoming more saline over the past decade, which makes it easier for the sea ice to melt, as discussed in an earlier post.

Sea level rise, sea ice loss and eruption of methane

As the sea surface heats up, several feedbacks are amplifying each other, such as ocean stratification, sea ice decline and sea level rise. At first glance, sea ice decline may not seem to contribute to sea level rise. However, its indirect contribution can be huge. Sea level rise is dominated by ocean thermal expansion (38%) and mass loss from melting glaciers (41%, IPCC AR6 data) and decline of ice sheets on land.

Ocean thermal expansion

Firstly, loss of sea ice indirectly contributes to sea level rise, since sea ice loss comes with albedo loss, resulting in higher temperatures that cause thermal expansion. Oceans absorb more than 90% of the extra heat resulting from Earth's Energy Imbalance. As water absorbs heat, its molecules gain energy, move faster, and spread further apart.

In a 2014 analysis, researchers led by Krisina Pistone calculate that albedo decrease resulting from Arctic sea ice decline between 1979 and 2011 correspond to an additional 6.4 W/m² of solar energy input into the Arctic Ocean region since 1979. Averaged over the globe, this albedo decrease corresponds to a forcing that is 25% as large as that due to the change in CO₂ during this period.

Ice acting as a glue

Secondly, sea ice decline also has an impact on glaciers and ice sheets on land. The Thwaites glacier accounts for some 4% of sea level rise and this could double when taking into account grounding-zone processes. Both the Thwaites glacier and the adjacent sea ice act as a physical buffer, glue or plug holding back ice in the broader West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sea level rise and increased ocean heat result in more heat reaching and melting parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from above and from below, thus further speeding up the sea level rise. Sea ice loss also contributes to destabilization of land ice by resulting in more wave action and ocean heat reaching parts of the ice sheet, causing more melting from below.

Loss of latent heat buffer

Thirdly, with the disappearance of sea ice, the latent heat buffer disappears that would previously consume huge amounts of ocean heat in the process of sea ice melting. Loss of this buffer result in more heat remaining in the ocean, which can destabilize sediments at the seafloor that contain huge amounts of methane. The danger of methane erupting from the seabed near Antarctica was earlier discussed in this post. Melting of ice sheets can also result in isostatic rebound and lead to destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates. Wild weather swings could also cause destabilization of sediments and subsequent methane eruptions, as warned about in this 2014 post and this 2025 post.

Why is this important?

Instead of seeking to maintain and strengthen existing infrastructure, the Climate Plan calls for reductions in traditional energy, communications and transport infrastructure such as roads, bridges, tunnels and rail lines, through a transition to more online work, ordering, education, health diagnosis, etc, supported by microgrids that are powered by batteries and rooftop solar panels, and are interconnected by WiFi, microwave, laser links and solar planes such as the HAP-alpha's Solar Plane. Where needed, eVTOL air taxis can add extra mobility, as discussed in the ArcticNews group and the air taxis group.

The 2005 Hurricane Katrina caused 80% of New Orleans to be flooded, with some parts under 15 feet (4.6 m) of water. The compound effects of sea level rise, high tide and storm surge can be devastating, especially when infrastructure is not built with such dangers in mind. The 2007 article Ten Dangers of Global Warming warns how seemingly unrelated developments can combine, compound and make things progressively worse, with dangers feeding into and reinforcing each other, causing collapse of buildings, infrastructure, industries and of the economic and financial system, adding that - to some extent - a carbon-based currency could take over the role of money locally.

What could be done about it?

The Biochar Economy could be established as follows. A carbon-based currency could be created locally, by imposing fees on land where carbon content decreases due to grazing, logging or other forms of vegetation removal. The fees could fund local rewards where carbon content increases locally, due to planting of perennial fruit trees and legumes such as peas and beans, and due to adding soil supplements such as biochar and olivine sand.

Similarly, fees could be imposed on sales of livestock products and nitrogen fertilizers made with fossil fuel, with revenues used to fund rebates on local purchases of vegan-organic food, biochar kilns, rock crushing machinery, etc. The currency could be expressed in volume or weight of locally-produced biochar, in recognition of the importance of the Biochar Economy, of which an early description was given in this 2011 post and later in this 2014 post.

Low Antarctic sea ice

The combination image below shows Antarctica sea ice concentration by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (center) and Antarctic sea ice thickness (right) on October 11, 2026. The orange line on the image at the center shows the median ice edge 1981-2010.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

On October 2, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 16.796 million km², the lowest extent on record for the day. Extent has been falling since reaching its maximum on September 15, 2026, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC.

Antarctic sea ice extent has fallen recently, and was 16.73 million km² on October 1, 2026, a record low for the time of year.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Antarctic sea ice can be expected to keep falling strongly over the next few months, due to the change in seasons and as El Niño gains in strength.

On October 3, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.81 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest extent and anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.61σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

On October 15, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.92 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -5.31σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

Minimum Antarctic sea ice is typically reached in February, but the 2026 El Niño may cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur early, as early as late 2026. As said, the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength late 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record.

Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

September 2026 sea surface temperature

The image below shows that the September 2026 ocean temperature was 1.10°C higher than 1901-2000, the highest anomaly on record. The added trend reflects El Niño peaking late 2026, contributing to an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event followed by an Arctic Blue Ocean Event.

The image below shows NASA ocean temperature anomalies versus 1880-1920.

Surface temperature

The image below, adapted from nullschool, shows that surface temperatures as high as 3.5°C or 38.3°F were recorded near the coast of the West Antarctic Peninsula and as high as 3.1°C or 37.5°F nearby on land on the West Antarctic Peninsula (inset) on October 15, 2026 17:00 UTC.

[ from the Extinction page ]

Huge temperature rise

Disappearance of Antarctic sea ice would be a horrendous climate disaster, increasing the likelihood of a subsequent Arctic Blue Ocean Event. The danger is that multiple feedbacks associated with sea ice loss, such as albedo loss, will strongly speed up the temperature rise, as described at Double Blue Ocean Event and the Antarctica page.

Eruptions of methane from the seafloor could, on their own, cause the 1200 ppm CO₂e cloud feedback tipping point to be crossed, which in turn can cause global temperatures to rise by 8°C, as discussed in this earlier post.

Temperatures looks set to rise further due to the falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a additional temperature rises due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place as industrial activity collapses.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

The ClimatePlan by Sam Carana calls for implementation of sets of feebates, with fees imposed on sales of polluting products and the revenues from those fees used to fund rebates on cleaner alternatives. Sets of feebates are best implemented ASAP, separately and preferably locally, with disputes handled by Local People's Courts where randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts on whether policies confirm the weight of best-available science. Where needed, Climate Emergency Declarations can support progress.

Links

• Copernicus

https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• NOAA - National Centers for Environmental Information - Global Time Series

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/ocean/tavg/1/0/1850-2026

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4) - Analysis Graphs and Plots - custom plotter
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center - CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder
https://nsidc.org

• Arctic and Antarctic Data archive System - National Institute of Polar Research - Academic Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Levi Cowan - tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Leon Simons - Earth's Energy Imbalance
https://bsky.app/profile/leonsimons.com/post/3mwy3xgypts2y

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Teleconnections: Atmospheric river carrying moisture to Antarctica

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/09/teleconnections-atmospheric-river-carrying-moisture-to-antarctica.html

• Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model - by Mattia Poinelli et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0510-8

discussed on facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164871312359679

• The Biochar Economy

https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar/permalink/234998409882683
https://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2011/09/biochar-economy.html
https://biochareconomy.blogspot.com/2014/08/biochar-builds-real-assets.html

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-climate-plan-by-sam-carana.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration (2023)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Signals flashing red indicating further acceleration toward climate collapse

Greenhouse gas concentrations

The image below shows hourly (red circles) and daily (yellow circles) averaged carbon dioxide (CO₂) values from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, over 31 days. The highest daily average CO₂ concentration on record, 431.95 ppm, was recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on March 28, 2026 (third yellow circle from the right). In bold on the image are recent daily averages, since March 24, 2026.

CO₂ average daily concentrations were at a record high of 431.95 parts per million (ppm), at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on March 28, 2026. The image below shows daily (green circles), weekly (red lines) and monthly (blue lines) averages for the last year. The weekly average for the week beginning on March 22, 2026 was 430.93 ppm (red line top right).

The image below shows daily average CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii since 2020. The highest daily average CO₂ concentration on record, 431.95 ppm, was recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on March 28, 2026.

Concentrations of carbon dioxide haven't been this high for millions of years, as confirmed by recent analysis led by Sarah Shackleton and Julia Marks-Peterson. Their analysis finds that, while the average temperature of the ocean has decreased by 2 to 2.5°C over the past 3 million years, average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have likely remained below 300 parts per million over this time. Methane levels have also remained relatively stable. This makes the recent daily concentration of 431.95 ppm at Mauna Loa and the high recent methane levels (see image below) even more threatening and it means that, in addition to the key role of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, there were important contributions from other components of the climate system such as Earth’s reflectivity, variations in vegetation and/or ice cover and ocean circulation.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above combination image shows methane levels as high as 2240 parts per billion (ppb) close to sea level (left panel, 1000 mb) and as high as 2541 ppb at a slightly higher altitude (right panel, 840 mb) recorded by the NOAA 21 satellite on March 11, 2026 AM. The combination image below shows methane levels as high as 231 ppb at 1000 mb (left panel) and as high as 2576 ppb at 399.1 mb (right panel) recorded by the NOAA 20 satellite on March 11, 2026 PM.

Together, these combination images support the suggestion that a burst of methane did enter the atmosphere at a location over the ocean, resulting in very high methane levels in the morning slightly above sea level and even higher methane levels higher up in the atmosphere later that day.

Sea surface temperature

The image below shows world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperatures from NOAA OISST V2.1. The sea surface temperature was 21.15°C on March 27, 2026, a record high temperature for the time of year and a +0.75°C anomaly compared to 1982-2010. The sea surface temperature has risen by 0.46°C since the start of 2026.

Furthermore, changes in salinity and ocean currents, together with ocean stratification, ocean oxygen depletion and sea ice loss can result in oceans changing from heat sinks into heat sources, resulting in more heat remaining in the air and getting transferred to the air, as discussed in earlier post such as this one and as discussed in this analysis, also discussed here.

Earth Albedo

The image below, adapted from an image by Eliot Jacobson, shows now much the Earth Albedo (reflectivity) has fallen from February 23 through January 2026.

Arctic sea ice

One of the contributors to albedo loss is Arctic sea ice loss. The image below, adapted from NSIDC, shows that on March 25, 2026, the Arctic sea ice extent was 14.011 million km², the lowest extent on record for the time of year.

The image below, adapted from ads.nipr.ac.jp, shows that Arctic sea ice extent was 13.37 million km² on March 27, 2026, the lowest sea ice extent on record for the time of year.

The situation is very dangerous, since we're moving out of a La Niña (which is suppressing the temperature) into an El Niño (which will be elevating the temperature).

The danger is that a Blue Ocean Event will occur in 2026 if Arctic sea ice continues to be low and if melting from April 2026 onward will be strong. A Blue Ocean Event can be said to occur when virtually no sea ice remains to keep consuming ocean heat that is entering the Arctic Ocean mainly from the Atlantic Ocean. Virtually no sea ice could be 1 million km² or less in sea ice extent, but it could also be measured in area, as illustrated by the image below.

The image below shows that the Arctic sea ice area was the lowest on record on March 25, 2026. Arctic sea ice area was 13.43 million km² on March 25, 2012, and area was 12.31 million km² on March 25, 2026, i.e. a difference of 1.12 million km² and the same difference as there was on March 20, 2026. Arctic sea ice area was 2.24 million km² on September 12, 2012, so with this difference persisting, Arctic sea ice area would be 1.12 million km² in September 2026, or very close to a Blue Ocean Event.

The danger that a Blue Ocean Event will occur in September 2026 is further illustrated by the image below. The image, from an earlier post, which shows Arctic sea ice volume in the past 25 years. Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. In 2025, Arctic sea ice reached a record low maximum volume, as well as a record low minimum volume.

As illustrated by the above image, adapted from dmi.dk, Arctic sea ice volume was very low in April 2025, so while relatively little melting took place from April 2025 to September 2025, a record low Arctic sea ice volume was still reached in September 2025. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through mid February 2026, with an analysis of the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum) by means of the bars colored magenta (strong melting) and green (little melting).

If the downward trend in annual maxima (blue circles) continues, Arctic sea ice looks set to reach an even lower maximum volume in April 2026. The difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur later in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event could also be said to occur when only 1000 km³ or less Arctic sea ice volume remains. The image below, adapted from dmi.dk, shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on March 31, 2026.

Could the N.H land-only temperature rise by more than 3°C in 2027?

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows that the global surface air temperature was 14.31°C on March 26, 2026, the highest temperature on record for the time of year.

Could the temperature rise by more than 3°C soon? The upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature on land in the Northern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the combination image below that uses land-only data in the top panel and Northern Hemisphere data in the bottom panel. While the image shows NASA data from 2011 until 2028 (top panel, land-only) and data from 2011 until 2029 (bottom panel, N.H), the trends are calculated using annual data from 2010 through 2025. The quartic trends point at the temperature crossing 3°C in the Northern Hemisphere in early 2028 (bottom), and on land-only in early 2027.

There are compound impacts such as that the temperature will rise faster on land in the Northern Hemisphere, and even faster during heatwaves in large cities where they are affected by the Urban Heat Island effect. Moreover, the 1880-1920 base is not pre-industrial, the outlook may be even more dire when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.

Note also that the above are annual average temperature anomalies, i.e. the average for higher and lower anomalies during the year. A recent study shows that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2°C warming for several sectors. For droughts in global key breadbasket regions, precipitation extremes over highly populated areas and fire weather extremes across forests, global climatic impact-drivers at 2°C of global warming may turn out to be much more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3°C or 4°C warming. Indeed, the peaks are more critical than the averages.

Recent research finds that, while fully frozen permafrost can be considered both to function as a seal preventing subsurface gases being released, and to prevent the creation of new CO₂ and CH₄, gas permeability increases by about 25–100 times during thawing, with most permeability change occurring in the −5°C to −1°C range, indicating that the protective gas seal previously provided by permafrost will be lost as permafrost thaws.

The danger is that the temperature will not merely "overshoot" the 3°C threshold, but that the temperature will continue to rise, especially on land in the Northern Hemisphere, and accelerate over the Arctic. Given the severity, ubiquity and imminence of the danger, one would think that highlighting the danger will prompt people into taking effective climate action, but the outlook is that the temperature will continue to rise for at least a few years, hence the choice of the trend and the canvas, which in the above image is limited to 3°C and until 2028, respectively 2029 (as also discussed on facebook here).

Polynomial trends such as the one in the above image can highlight warnings about dangers that are discussed in this post and in earlier posts, in particular warnings that a strong El Niño is on the way which could cause a strong rise in temperature in the course of 2026 and trigger further acceleration of the temperature rise.

Indeed, the rise resulting from a strong El Niño would come on top of a temperature rise that is already accelerating due to high concentrations of greenhouse gases, while deforestation and numerous feedbacks are kicking in with greater ferocity, and while the temperature rise is amplified in the Arctic (see image below, from earlier post), which could lead to a Blue Ocean Event soon, further speeding up the temperature rise and resulting in loss of permafrost, eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, further loss of lower clouds, etc.

The above image, from an earlier post, shows that the 2025 Arctic temperature was 3.431°C higher than in 1951-1980. The only year on record that had an anomaly higher than 2025 was 2016, when there was a super El Niño.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - data viewer - Mauna Loa, Hawaii

https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• NOAA - Office of satellite and product operations - HEAP NUCAPS

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/nucaps/new/nucaps_products.html

• Broadly stable atmospheric CO2 and CH4 levels over the past 3 million years - by Julia Marks-Peterson et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-10032-y

and

• Global ocean heat content over the past 3 million years - by Sarah Shackleton et al.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10116-3
discussed on Facebook at:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164017885199679

• Earth Albedo - by Eliot Jacobson

https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mhgez6jdb226

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - custom plots

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html
quartic trend analysis was discussed earlier on facebook at:

https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/pfbid0296afZAMp8Ec9ZVovFVwAbCNuuYcFUWM9z4mxU7bape2PaUFypqXANDrnLNDBpPEil

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Extent
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Copernicus

https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html

• Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - by Emanuele Bevacqua et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10237-9

discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164067383004679

• Measurement of Gas Fraction and Gas Permeability of Thawing Permafrost Caused by Climate Change - by Paul Glover et al.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EF007232

discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164067092539679

• The threat of seafloor methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-threat-of-seafloor-methane-eruptions.html

• The 2026 El Nino - update March 2026
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-2026-el-nino-update-march-2026.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Double Blue Ocean Event 2026?

A double Blue Ocean Event could occur in 2026. Both Antarctic sea ice and Arctic sea ice could virtually disappear in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) occurs when sea ice falls to or under 1 million km², which could occur early 2026 for Antarctic sea ice area and in Summer 2026 in the Northern Hemisphere for Arctic sea ice area.

Arctic sea ice area reached an annual minimum of 2.70 million km² on September 9, 2025, the fourth-lowest minimum area, as illustrated by the image below.

The low Arctic sea ice area is worrying, especially when considering that this minimum was reached in the absence of El Niño conditions. Lower air temperatures are now causing rapid growth of Arctic sea area, which is sealing off the Arctic Ocean and this makes it more difficult for ocean heat to be transferred to the atmosphere. Furthermore, Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on September 16, 2025, as it has been for more than a year, as illustrated by the image below.

More ocean heat could therefore reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which threatens to destabilize hydrates and cause huge amounts of methane to be released. Eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean is one of the most dangerous feedbacks of rising temperatures. As the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean heats up, heat can penetrate sediments and cause destabilization of hydrates, resulting in eruption of methane. Since the seas in the Arctic Ocean can be very shallow, methane eruptions can occur abruptly, with great force and in the form of plumes, leaving little opportunity for the methane to get decomposed in the water. Furthermore, there is very little hydroxyl in the air over the Arctic, which extends the lifetime of methane over the Arctic.

[ The Buffer is gone, from Accelerating Temperature Rise ]

The above image illustrates the danger. Sea ice constitutes a buffer that previously consumed much incoming ocean heat (left); as sea ice thins, the buffer disappears while more heat also enters the Arctic Ocean (right). Further heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean threatens to destabilize sediments that contain methane, causing eruption of huge amounts of methane.

The danger is also illustrated by the image below, adapted from an image issued by NOAA September 18, 2025, showing hourly methane averages recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North.

Antarctic sea ice area reached an annual maximum of 13.73 million km² on September 5, 2025, a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.08σ, as illustrated by the image below.

Loss of sea ice area results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead more heat getting absorbed by the ocean.

[ image from earlier post ]

Sea ice area is low at both poles, despite the absence of El Niño conditions. Low global sea ice area causes more sunlight to get absorbed by the ocean. Global sea ice area was 2.40 million km² below the 1981-2010 mean on September 16, 2025, a deviation from 1981-2010 of 3.91σ.

With sea ice area low at both poles, global sea ice area could fall further over the next few months, thus causing even more sunlight to get absorbed by the ocean and threatening to cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event early 2026.

On March 1, 2025, Antarctic sea ice area reached an annual minimum of 1.21 million km², almost as low as the 1.09 million km² reached on February 22, 2023 (highlighted), as illustrated by the image below.

A study by Duspayev et al. (2024) calculates that global sea ice has lost 13%–15% of its planetary cooling effect since the early/mid 1980s, corresponding with an implied global sea ice albedo feedback of 0.24–0.38 W m⁻² K⁻¹.

The IPCC has failed to warn about Antarctic sea ice decline, and - importantly - the amplifying impact of Antarctic sea ice decline on the global temperature rise. This was addressed in a 2023 post as follows:
Sea ice loss results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead getting absorbed by the ocean and the impact of Antarctic sea ice loss is even stronger than Arctic sea ice loss, since Antarctic sea ice is located closer to the Equator, as pointed out by Paul Beckwith in a video in an earlier post [and in the video below]. A warmer Southern Ocean also comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as discussed here and here. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this 'pattern effect' could make a huge difference globally, as this study points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the feedbacks page).

In the video below, Paul Beckwith discusses the situation in Antarctica.

An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event early 2026 would further accelerate the global temperature rise, thus likely causing an Arctic Blue Ocean Event as well later in 2026. Further increasing this danger is the potential for an El Niño to emerge in the course of 2026.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.