Showing posts with label El Niño. Show all posts
Showing posts with label El Niño. Show all posts

Monday, March 2, 2026

The 2026 El Nino - update March 2026

The 2026 El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño alone can make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts, indicating that El Niño will emerge in the course of 2026.

The image below, also adapted from NOAA, shows El Niño years (red), La Niña years (blue) and neutral years (grey).

[ image from earlier post ]
[ image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities for the Niño3.4 region (5°N-5°S,120°W-170°W) relative sea surface temperature index, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026.

The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through February 2027 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

[ image from earlier post ]
The combination image below, also adapted from ECMWF, shows anomalies and forecasts through September 2026 in the Niño3.4 region (left panel) and the Niño1+2 region (right panel).


Sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C in the NINO3.4 region indicate a "super" or very strong El Niño event. 

The image below, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a rise since early January 2026 of more than 2.5°C in sea surface temperature anomalies (CDAS data) in the Niño1+2 region from early January 2026 to March 1, 2026.


Ocean and air temperatures

During La Niña, heat builds up underneath the sea surface, so sea surface temperatures and air temperatures get suppressed. The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates ocean heat building up in the Equatorial Pacific region. 


During El Niño, more ocean heat comes to the sea surface and more ocean heat gets transferred to the atmosphere, resulting in elevated air temperatures. Furthermore, changes in salinity and ocean currents, together with ocean stratification can result in oceans changing from heat sinks into heat sources, resulting in more heat remaining in the air and getting transferred to the air, as discussed in earlier post such as this one. 

[ image from earlier post, discussed on facebook and also at the Arcticnews group on facebook ]
Such changes can contribute to a rapid and steep rise in temperature, as the above image warns about. The above image shows ERA5 daily sea surface temperature anomalies (60°S-60°N) from 1 January 2023 through 25 February 2026, with an added trend, warning about the potential for a steep temperature rise in 2026.


[ click on images to enlarge ]
The above image below shows that the 2025 Arctic temperature was 3.431°C higher than in 1951-1980. The only year on record that had an anomaly higher than 2025 was 2016, when there was a super El Niño. 

The image on the right shows that most forecasts point at a sea surface temperature anomaly exceeding 2°C in the NINO3.4 region in Sept 2026, indicating that a super El Niño event is on the way.

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast for November 2026, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.

[ image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]
Arctic sea ice

Arctic sea ice extent was 13.49 million km² on March 1, 2026, the second lowest extent on record for the time of year. The image is adapted from ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop. 


Arctic sea ice extent was 14.116 million km² on March 5, 2026, the second daily lowest on record, according to the image adapted from NSIDC below. 


This is a very dangerous situation, since we're moving out of a La Niña that is suppressing the temperature into an El Niño that is elevating the temperature, as described in a recent post. 

The image below shows that the Arctic sea ice extent was 1.42 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on March 2, 2026 (black), the second lowest daily anomaly on record and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.27σ. The sea ice extent anomaly was lower on March 2, 2025 (purple), when the standard deviation was -3.69σ, but it was -1.26σ on May 1, 2025.  

If the 2026 Arctic sea ice volume continues to be low and if melting from April 2026 will be strong, the danger is that a Blue Ocean Event will occur in 2026. 

The danger is further illustrated by the image below that shows Arctic sea ice volume in the past 25 years. Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. In 2025, Arctic sea ice reached a record low maximum volume, as well as a record low minimum volume.


As illustrated by the above image, Arctic sea ice volume was very low in April 2025, so while relatively little melting took place from April 2025 to September 2025, a record low Arctic sea ice volume was still reached in September 2025. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through mid February 2026, with an analysis of the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum) by means of the bars colored magenta (strong melting) and green (little melting). 

If the downward trend in annual maxima (blue circles) continues, Arctic sea ice looks set to reach an even lower maximum volume in April 2026. The difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur later in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event could be said to occur when only 1000 km³ or less Arctic sea ice volume remains. The image below shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on March 7, 2026. 


Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links

• Japanese National Institute of Polar Research
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Extent
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• NOAA - Ocean heat in the Equatorial Pacific region
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Monday, February 23, 2026

The 2026 El Nino

Arctic sea ice extent

Arctic sea ice extent was 13.53 million km² on February 28, 2026, the second lowest on record for the time of year. This is a very dangerous situation, as we're moving out of a La Niña that is suppressing temperatures into an El Niño that is elevating temperatures. 

The above image is adapted from the Japanese National Institute of Polar Research and shows Arctic sea ice extent from the start of the year through early May. 

The image below, adapted from NSIDC, shows that Arctic sea ice extent was second lowest on record for the time of year on February 27, 2026. 


As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 1.36 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on February 27, 2026 (black), the second lowest anomaly on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.96σ. 


Importantly, we're moving from a La Niña to an El Niño. The above images illustrate the impact of differences between El Niño and La Niña. The year 2016 was a strong El Niño year and Arctic sea ice extent started to decline strongly in the course of 2016 and extent remained low in 20017 and 2018. The El Niño that started to develop in 2023 contributed to the very low sea ice extent in early 2025, while sea ice extent was also lowest on record for the day during early parts of 2026. The blue line is the 2012 extent, which would turn into a record low later that year, a record that still stands today. 

What happened in 2012? Let's first look into greenhouse gas concentrations, which are high in the Arctic and causing Arctic temperatures to rise strongly.


[ CO₂ concentration on Feb 22, 2026 ]
As illustrated by the image below, methane concentrations were as high as 2498 ppb on February 19, 2026. Methane tends to be higher closer to the North Pole, while methane is particularly high at this altitude, unlike CO₂ that has its highest concentrations close to the surface.

As illustrated by the image on the right, surface concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) was as high as 526 ppm on February 22, 2026. The image also shows that CO₂ concentrations are high across the Arctic.

High Arctic concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing Arctic temperatures to rise strongly, contributing to decline in Arctic ice and snow cover, which causes loss of surface albedo (reflectivity).

Albedo loss is a self-amplifying feedback loop that further speeds up the temperature rise in the Arctic. 

The strong rise of Arctic temperatures narrows the temperature difference between the Equator and the Arctic, which slows down the speed at which hot air flows from the Equator to the Arctic. This slowdown can hugely distort the Jet Stream and can also contribute to a slowdown of ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which - together with ocean stratification - can contribute to more ocean heat accumulating at the surface and to less lower clouds (albedo loss).

[ Storm over Arctic Ocean, August 2012 ]
Distortion of the Jet Stream in turn results in more extreme weather such as heatwaves, storms and fires. Fires produce soot that can settle down on the snow and ice cover and darken the surface (albedo loss). Storms can bring huge amounts of warm air into the Arctic. Furthermore, storms can churn sea ice into smaller pieces.

Early August 2012, a storm hit the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image on the right. Smaller pieces of ice melt more rapidly, since more parts become exposed to ocean heat, in contrast to a large flat and solid layer of ice that is also less susceptible to wind. 

Pieces of ice that are lighter and smaller will more easily stand out above the water and capture the wind like the sails of yachts. Storms can push these smaller pieces more easily together, decreasing sea ice extent (albedo loss). 

Storms can also temporarily speed up currents that are moving pieces of sea ice, with the potential to move pieces all the way out of the Arctic Ocean, where they will melt away rapidly. 

Furthermore, storms can cause deeper vertical mixing of the sea water column, causing more heat to penetrate the seabed and resulting in destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments and eruption of huge amounts of methane from hydrates and from free gas held underneath the hydrates. 

In conclusion, a huge retreat in Arctic sea ice extent could occur in 2026, as Jet Stream distortion is getting ever stronger due to the ongoing temperature rise and this can cause storms over the Arctic Ocean to devastate sea ice extent. A Blue Ocean Event could therefore happen in the course of 2026. 

The 2026 El Niño
 
During La Niña, heat builds up underneath the sea surface, so sea surface temperatures and air temperatures get suppressed. During El Niño, ocean heat comes to the sea surface and air temperatures are elevated.

The image below shows ERA5 daily sea surface temperature anomalies (60°S-60°N) from 1 January 2023 through 25 February 2026, with an added trend, warning about the potential for a steep temperature rise in 2026.

[ the image is discussed at Arcticnews on facebook ]

[ El Niño outlook ]
Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño alone can make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts, indicating that El Niño will emerge in the course of 2026. 

The image below, also adapted from NOAA, shows El Niño years (red), La Niña years (blue) and neutral years (grey).

[ image from earlier post ]

[ image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities for the Niño3.4 region (5°N-5°S,120°W-170°W) relative sea surface temperature index, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026.

The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through February 2027 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

[ image from earlier post ]
The combination image below, also adapted from ECMWF, shows anomalies and forecasts through August 2026 in the Niño3 region (left panel) and the Niño1+2 region (right panel).

[ image from earlier post ]
The image below, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a rise since early January 2026 of more than 2.5°C in sea surface temperature anomalies (CDAS data) in the Niño1+2 region through February 28, 2026. 


Nick Breeze talks with Jennifer Francis about the upcoming El Niño in the video below, also discussed on facebook.


Latent heat buffer loss - as sea ice, permafrost and glaciers disappear

Ocean heat is another contributor to Arctic sea ice loss and ocean heat keeps melting sea ice all year long from below. 

Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when ice turns into water. During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. As long as there is ice, additional heat will be absorbed by the process of ice turning into water, so the temperature doesn't rise at the surface.
The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows monthly Arctic sea ice volume in the past 25 years. Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. In 2025, Arctic sea ice reached a record low maximum volume as well as a record low minimum volume.

As illustrated by the above image, Arctic sea ice volume in April 2025 was very low, so while relatively little melting took place between April 2025 and September 2025, a record low Arctic sea ice volume was still reached in September 2025. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through mid December 2025, with an analysis of the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum). If the trend in annual maxima (blue circles) continues, Arctic sea ice in 2026 looks set to reach an even lower volume in April 2026. The difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur later in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event could be said to occur when only 1000 km³ or less Arctic sea ice volume remains.

There is a huge danger that seafloor methane and methane from thawing terrestrial permafrost will add strongly and abruptly to the temperature rise, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the screenshot below.
 
Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean causes Arctic sea ice to lose thickness and thus volume, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. This means that - as sea ice thickness decreases - a lot of incoming ocean heat can no longer be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, and the heat will therefore contribute to higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. The danger of this is described in the screenshot below. 
[ screenshot from earlier post ]
The image below shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on February 28, 2026. 


The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous

The combination image below shows images adapted from Copernicus. The image on the left shows temperature anomalies at the bottom end of the scale over parts of North America and Russia on February 27, 2026, while temperature anomalies are at the top end of the scale over much of the Arctic Ocean. The image on the right shows absolute temperatures on February 27, 2025.


The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast for February 27, 2026, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (28°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean. The image also illustrates to what extent cold air has descended from the Arctic over Russia and North America, with more background as to why this is happening discussed in a recent post.


The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast for November 2026, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.


The danger is that a strong 2026 El Niño could trigger a cascade of feedbacks, kicking in with increasing ferocity, as follows:

• a strong 2026 El Niño could trigger a cascade of feedbacks, including:
• a Blue Ocean Event (minimal Arctic sea ice), resulting in huge loss of albedo,
• with crossing of the latent heat tipping point (loss of ice buffer), resulting in
• seafloor CH₄ hydrates destabilization and eruption of vast amounts of CH₄, and
• submarine and terrestrial permafrost thawing, resulting in even more emissions,
• and further Jet Stream distortion, causing even more extreme weather events,
• resulting in forest fires, initially in Siberia, Alaska and Canada, and also in
• droughts and fires in global peatlands and in tropical rainforests, causing
• rapid melting and thaw of mountaintop snow and ice, initially causing flooding,
• followed by droughts, fires, water shortages, famine, heatwaves, starvation,
• resulting in massive biodiversity loss, while infrastructure collapses, and
• the Greenland Ice Sheet and parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, causing
• massive flooding of coastal areas, next to a huge rise in temperature,
• while more water vapor in the air causes the temperature rise to speed up further.

[ image from earlier post, also discussed on facebook ]

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links

• Japanese National Institute of Polar Research
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Extent

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Blue Ocean  Event






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Sunday, November 2, 2025

The threat of seafloor methane eruptions

Sea ice 

Arctic sea ice volume remains at a record daily low, as it has been for more than a year. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through November 21, 2025.


The image below shows monthly Arctic sea ice volume in the past 25 years. Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. In 2025, Arctic sea ice reached a record low maximum volume as well as a record low minimum volume.

[ from earlier post ]
Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean causes Arctic sea ice to lose thickness and thus volume, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. This means that - as sea ice thickness decreases - a lot of incoming ocean heat can no longer be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, and the heat will therefore contribute to higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. The danger of this is described in the screenshot below.

[ screenshot from earlier post ]

Arctic sea ice extent was 1.91 million km² lower than 1981-2020 on November 21, 2025, a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.34σ.

The image below shows that the global sea ice extent was 3.40 million km² lower than 1981-2020 on November 21, 2025, a deviation from 1981-2010 of -5.51σ. This is terrifying, given that we're currently in a La Niña.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures around Antarctica as high as 0.7°C or 33.3°F (at the green circle, on the left of Antarctica) on November 21, 2025. 


The image below shows sea surface temperatures around Antarctica as high as -0.9°C or 30.4°F (at the green circle, on the right of Antarctica) on November 21, 2025. 


The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

A study led by Alessandro Silvano (2025) finds that, over the years, surface waters have become more salty.


When surface waters become saltier, they sink more readily, stirring the ocean’s layers and allowing heat from the deep to rise. This upward heat flux can melt sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing the cycle.

In addition to heat rising up from the deep, there is the danger that increasing amounts of both heat and carbon dioxide (CO₂), previously taken up by the ocean and stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, will instead remain at the surface and cause both atmospheric temperatures and CO₂ concentrations to rise.

Less sea ice extent means that less sunlight gets reflected back into space and instead gets absorbed by the sea surface, resulting in higher sea surface temperatures. Less global sea ice thus contributes to lower albedo. The image below, by Eliot Jacobson, shows the 36-month running average for the Earth albedo just hit yet another new record low, at 28.701%. 


Accelerating temperature rise

The image below, created with a screenshot from a Copernicus image, shows that, over the past few months, temperatures have risen by 0.5°C, i.e. from an anomaly (vs 1991-2020) of 0.41°C on June 23 to 0.91°C on November 22, 2025 (dark red line), getting close to if not exceeding temperature anomalies reached in 2024 (orange) and 2023 (yellow).

In fact, the temperature reached a new daily record high on November 22, 2025, and this occurred despite the fact that we're currently in a La Niña that suppresses temperatures, whereas temperatures were raised from May 2023 through April 2024 when El Niño conditions were dominant. 


The image below shows land-only monthly temperature anomalies from 1903-1915 through October 2025 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) points at 3°C getting crossed in the course of 2031 (dashed extension). The 1903-1915 base is not pre-industrial. Anomalies will be higher when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.


The image below shows land+ocean monthly temperature anomalies from 1903-1915 through October 2025 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) points at 2°C getting crossed before 2030 and 3°C getting crossed before 2040 (dashed extension). As said, the anomalies will be higher when using a genuinely pre-industrial base. 


The 3°C threshold is important since humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as discussed in this 2019 post. 

The image below shows the October 2025 temperature anomaly from 1951-1980. Anomalies are very high, exceeding 10°C in areas over both the poles.


The combination image below highlights the October 2025 very high temperature anomalies (from 1951-1980), exceeding 10°C in areas over both the poles.


The image below shows the global monthly surface temperature anomalies from 1951-1980 through October 2025, when the anomaly was 1.37°C. 

Note that the 1951-1980 base isn't pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature anomaly will be much higher, well above the thresholds that politicians at the Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed. 

Ominously, anomalies have kept rising over the past few months, and this occurred in the absence of El Niño conditions in 2025. 

The image below shows the global temperature standard anomaly for the 12 months from November 2024 through October 2025. 


The image below shows the standard deviation (Sd) anomalies from 1951-1980 of Arctic temperatures over the past few years, with a Standard Anomaly of 6.68σ reached in October 2025. 

The image below shows the standard deviation (Sd) anomalies from 1951-1980 of Arctic temperatures over the past few years, with a Standard deviation Anomaly of 4.59σ reached in October 2025.  


Sea surface temperature anomalies

The image below shows monthly sea surface temperature anomalies from 1951-1980 through September 2025, when the anomaly was 0.74°C. The image also shows that the anomaly in September 2023 was 0.901°C. 


The image below shows the standard deviation from 1951-1980 of the monthly sea surface temperature through September 2025, when it was 8.045σ. The image also shows that the standard deviation in August 2023 was 10.148σ. 


In statistics, the empirical rule states that in a normal distribution, 68% of the observed data will occur within one standard deviation (1σ), 95% within two standard deviations (2σ), and 99.7% within three standard deviations (3σ) of the mean. A 4σ event indicates that the observed result is 4 standard deviations (4σ) away from the expected mean. In a normal distribution, 99.993666% of data points would fall within this range. The chance for data to fall outside of 4σ is thus infinitesimally small.

Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures have remained very high. The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies from 1981-2011 in the Northern Hemisphere, with anomalies as high as 9°C or 13.6°F visible in the path of the Gulf Stream (at the green circle). 


Wild weather swings

    [ 24+°C anomaly over part of Greenland ]
Wild weather swings are striking the world with accelerating intensity and ferocity. More than 1.4 million evacuated as second typhoon in a week slams into the Philippines, reports CNN. 

The image on the right shows temperature anomalies higher than 24°C at 2m in an area over Greenland on November 13, 2025.

The image below shows strong wind over Baffin Bay boosting temperatures over Greenland to levels as high as 12.9°C or 55.1°F (at the green circle) at 1000 hPa on November 13, 2025, as strong wind pushes warm air over Greenland, while cold Arctic air gets pushed down toward England. 


ENSO outlook, next El Niño likely to be devastating

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Currently, global sea ice is low and temperatures are high, despite the fact that La Niña conditions are suppressing the temperature. This should constitute a strong warning that temperatures look set to accelerate dramatically with the development of the next El Niño, likely to occur in the course of 2026.

According to a NOAA analysis issued Nov 13, 2025, La Niña continued over the past month, and La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (61% chance, image right). 

ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) has three states: El Niño (when temperatures are higher than average), La Niña (when temperatures are suppressed), and a neutral state. 

The image on the right, adapted from a November 2025 NOAA image, gives an ENSO outlook (CFSv2 ensemble mean, black dashed line) that favors La Niña to persist into the early Northern Hemisphere winter 2025-26, implying that temperatures will remain suppressed until early 2026.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right, adapted from ECMWF, shows the ENSO anomaly and forecast for developments in Niño3.4 through November 2026, indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and grow in strength in the course of 2026.

The depth of the current La Niña is illustrated by the image below. The image shows strongly negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA, NOAA OISST v2.1 data) in the Niño3.4 area in the Central Pacific, with a -0.98°C anomaly vs 1991-2020 on November 18, 2025, while the inset shows global SSTA vs 1991-2020 on November 18, 2025.  


NOAA considers La Niña conditions to occur when a one-month negative sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5° C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W) and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met, and an atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. 

The graph below uses CDAS (Climate Data Assimilation System) data showing an anomaly of -1.202ºC on November 15, 2025.


The CDAS analysis below shows very low sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño3.4 area on November 15, 2025. 


The CanSIPS forecast for March 2026 below shows high sea surface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific Ocean, indicating development of the next El Niño. The low sea surface temperature anomalies around Antarctica indicate areas where heavy melting will likely have taken place by March 2026. 


Antarctica

Sea ice extent is currently low at both poles. The low global sea ice extent at this time of year combined with high sea surface temperatures spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice, which typically reaches its minimum extent in February.

The image on the right shows Antarctic snow cover and sea ice concentration on November 21, 2025. 

The combination image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on November 19, 2025 (left) and Antarctic sea ice thickness on November 19, 2025 (right). 


The comparison image below shows the thickness of the Antarctic sea ice on October 6 and on November 21, 2025. 


An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event (sea ice approaching a low of one million km²) threatens to occur in February 2026, triggering an Arctic Blue Ocean Event later in 2026 while a developing El Niño is strengthening the danger. Ominously, the forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies for August 2026 below looks grim. 


The methane danger

This increases the danger that massive amounts of methane will erupt from the seafloor in 2026, further accelerating the temperature rise.

The methane danger is further illustrated by the images below. The image directly below shows methane as high as 2620 parts per billion (ppb) recorded by the NOAA 20 satellite at 487.2 mb on November 5, 2025 AM.


The image below shows hourly methane measurements well above 2400 ppb. The image is adapted from an image issued by NOAA November 9, 2025, showing methane hourly averages recorded in situ at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.


The image below is a similar image, this time showing that the monthly average methane recorded at the same station is about 2050 ppb. 


In the video below, Guy McPherson discussed our predicament. 



Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links

• DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute) - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Kevin Pluck - Sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Climate Reanalyzer

• NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) - Climate Prediction Center

• ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) - charts
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes

• NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Tropicaltidbits
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Data Visualisation - flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• Focus on Antarctica








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