Arctic News: Antarctica

Showing posts with label Antarctica. Show all posts

Saturday, August 22, 2026

Antarctic sea ice increasingly in danger

On August 23, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.24°C or 70.23°F, an anomaly of +1°C or +1.8°F from 1982-2010, the highest sea surface temperature on record and the highest anomaly on record. The globe (inset) shows the temperature anomaly vs 1991-2020 on August 23, 2026, with the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) highlighted.

The image below shows the global sea surface temperature anomaly on August 23, 2026.

The image below, from Copernicus, shows a sea surface temperature of 21.1°C or 69.98°F on August 21, 2026, a record high temperature and an anomaly of +0.67°C or +1.21°F from 1991-2020.

High sea surface temperatures have a detrimental impact on sea ice and the 2026 El Niño is on track to become the strongest on record.

On August 23, 2026, the global sea ice area was 3.02 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.58σ. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2016, 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple. Both 2016 and 2023 were strong El Niño years.

Ocean heat is not the only mechanisms causing sea ice decline. Below are eight mechanisms that are heating up the Arctic Ocean and low Arctic sea ice in 2026 will also have a detrimental impact on Antarctic sea ice, threatening to cause a double Blue ocean event.

Eight mechanisms heating up the Arctic Ocean

1. Ocean heat

The image below shows the sea surface temperature anomaly on August 23, 2026, this time with a projection that highlights how much the Arctic Ocean is getting hit by high sea surface temperatures. The blue areas in the Arctic Ocean indicate heavy melting of sea ice. There no longer is a cold area visible south of Greenland, indicating that this cold area has been overwhelmed by rising sea surface temperatures.

Geographic conditions are also important. Warm water is pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. This is illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, showing sea surface temperatures as high as 34°C (or 93.2°F) around North America on August 22, 2026 and illustrating geographic conditions facilitating the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic.

2. Insolation

Another important mechanism is high insolation. In line with seasonal changes, huge amounts of sunlight are reaching the Arctic at this time of year, which directly heats up the water, while heatwaves on land can extend over the Arctic Ocean and hot air can be pushed over the Arctic Ocean due to strong wind, further heating up the water of the Arctic Ocean, especially where the sea ice has now disappeared.

3. Wind patterns and ocean currents

While wind strengthens as temperatures rise, polar amplification of global warming is narrowing the temperature difference between the Equator and the Poles, and this can slow down and distort wind patterns such as the Jet Stream and ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Meriodinal Ocean Circulation (SMOC).

Changes to wind patterns and ocean currents constitute a third mechanism that can at times dramatically increase the polar temperature, e.g. slowing down of AMOC can cause huge amounts of ocean heat to accumulate in the North Atlantic, while a stronger cyclone can abruptly push much of this ocean heat abruptly into the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruption of methane from the seafloor.

4. Albedo

Albedo change constitutes a fourth mechanism. Decline of the snow and ice cover is causing more sunlight to get absorbed by the surface, instead of getting reflected back into space as was previously the case. Many aerosols such as soot (from burning fuel in the Northern Hemisphere) and dust are reaching the Arctic and are settling down on the snow and ice cover, thus contributing to albedo change. Decline of the snow and ice cover and higher temperatures also result in stronger growth of plants and algae, further speeding up the temperature rise due to albedo changes.

Arctic sea ice is in a bad shape. The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 22, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (right).

The image below shows the Arctic on August 8, 2026, illustrating that there can be a huge difference between the bright white color of the snow and ice cover over Greenland (bottom right), the color of melting sea ice (left) and the dark color of the water where the sea ice has disappeared.

5. Emissivity

Research led by Feldman (2014) found that open oceans are much less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum. The research team used a computer model that showed that open oceans hold more far-infrared energy than sea ice, resulting in warmer oceans, melting sea ice, and a 2°C rise in the polar climate after 25-year run.

6. Heatwaves and water from land

As coasts around the Arctic Ocean heat up, this will also heat up run-off from land and the water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean.

This is illustrated by the image on the right that shows sea surface temperatures as high as 18.2°C (or 64.76°F) in the Bering Strait on August 17, 2026. The image below, from an earlier post, shows that on August 19, 2026, the sea surface temperature was 16.2°C (or 29.16°C) higher than 1981-2011 where water of the river Ob flows into the Arctic Ocean (green circle).

Heatwaves on land can extend over the Arctic Ocean, while warm water from land and rivers can additionally warm up the water of the Arctic Ocean.

7. Disappearance of the buffer

The snow and ice cover act as a buffer that consumes heat as the ice melts and permafrost thaws. Disappearance of this buffer constitutes a seventh mechanism that can abruptly and dramatically increase the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean.

8. Further feedbacks and compound impacts

The eighth mechanism includes feedbacks and compound impacts of feedbacks and of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, lightning, fires and ozone, as discussed in posts such as this one. As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean increases, abrupt eruption of huge amounts of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean can also increase temperatures dramatically, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

The image below, from the feedbacks page, illustrates the mechanism of multiple feedbacks amplifying each other and accelerating the heating up of the atmosphere and the water of the Arctic Ocean.

Antarctica

Antarctic sea ice is also in a bad shape. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on August 22, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (right).

The temperature in the Tropics was at a record high for the time of year on August 16, 2026, as illustrated by the image below, showing a temperature of 25.97°C or 78.75°F, an anomaly of -1.17°C from a 1979-2000 base. Keep in mind that this is not a pre-industrial base.

In winter in the Southern Hemisphere, the temperature can be very low on Antarctica. On August 22, 2026, the temperature near the South Pole was below -60°C or -76°F, at the green circle, as illustrated by the image below.

Such large differences between the temperature at the Equator and the temperature at the South Pole come with large pressure differences that are strengthening wind patterns at 250 hPa, where the Jet Streams are located. This is illustrated by the image below, which shows how the flow of the Jet Stream is shaped by differences in pressure levels

The Jet Stream typically goes around Antarctica, forming a barrier that maintains low temperatures over Antarctica and the surrounding sea ice. In this case, however, the Jet Stream is crossing Antarctica, enabling warm, moist air to move over the Southern Ocean and reach Antarctica.

The image below shows an atmospheric river of moisture moving toward Antarctica, with total cloud water of 1.63 kg/m² recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location over the Southern Ocean marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a 3-hour precipitation accumulation of 7.5 kg/m² recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a relative humidity of 100% recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location near the South Pole marked by the green circle.

The image below shows an air temperature of 0.0°C or 32.1°F over the sea surface near Antarctica on August 22, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows that an air temperature of 4.1°C or 39.3°F was recorded over Antarctica at 1000 hPa on August 22, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a forecast for August 21, 2026, of precipitable water anomalies.

Snowfall over Antarctica

In the Southern Hemisphere, water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and evaporation is getting stronger as temperatures rise.

Part of the resulting precipitation falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post and showing a forecast of high precipitable water anomalies over Antarctica on August 20, 2025.

The forecast underneath further illustrates the potential for warm, moist air to travel in the form of atmospheric rivers toward Antarctica and cause significant snowfall over Antarctica.

[ snowfall over Antarctica, forecast for August 2, 2026 ]

As a result of the extra snowfall over Antarctica, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty.

In salty water, sea ice can start melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F), while freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform.

This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop.

Combined impact of El Niño, Antarctic sea ice loss and methane eruptions

The above mechanism was discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. The dramatic decrease in sea ice around Antarctica in 2023 looks set to continue long-term, due to the compound impact of feedbacks that are self-amplified and/or that amplify each other through albedo loss, lower emissivity, loss of the sea ice's latent heat buffer, ocean current changes, salinity changes, ocean stratification, etc.

On August 13, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 2 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -4.44σ, as illustrated by the image below from an earlier post. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the year 2016 is highlighted in purple.

On August 16, 2026, the Antarctic sea ice area was second lowest on record for that day with a standard deviation of -4.68σ, as illustrated by the above image. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the years 2024 and 2025 are highlighted in purple.

The potential impact of El Niño, loss of Antarctic sea ice and methane eruptions has been discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. While the Antarctic methane danger has been described before, such as in this April 2013 post, the main focus of the Arctic-news blog has long been on the Arctic, in particular on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). However, research published in 2025 highlights the dire situation in Antarctica, justifying an additional wider focus on global developments, as discussed on facebook.

Conclusion

The image below shows annual maximum daily precipitation change with a temperature versus 1850-1900 rise of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C, from the IPCC AR6.

The situation looks set to deteriorate further. More water vapor causes more warming, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. As more snow falls over Antarctica, the sea surface of the Southern Ocean increases in salinity, which speeds up melting of sea ice. The extra water vapor and increased melting of sea ice can both strongly accelerate the temperature rise, while water vapor that reaches the stratosphere also causes damage to the ozone layer.

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Copernicus

https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• ClimateReanalyzer

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Water Vapor Worries

The Ozone Layer

[CC image, credit: nptel.ac.in ]

The Atmosphere can be divided into layers. The Troposphere is the layer that is closest to the surface. When rising up in the Atmosphere, the next layer up is the Stratosphere. The next layer up is the Mesosphere and the fourth layer from the bottom is the Thermosphere.

The temperature rises or falls in a different way in each of these layers, as illustrated by the red line in the image CC from archive.nptel.ac.in on the right and the scale on the bottom.

The ozone layer is located in the lower stratosphere at an altitude of 15 to 35 km or 9 to 22 miles above the Earth's surface, with the highest concentrations usually peaking around 25 km. This altitude corresponds with a pressure level of 100 to 10 mb or hPa.

The ozone layer absorbs 97% to 99% of the Sun's medium-frequency ultraviolet light (from about 200 nm to 315 nm wavelength), which otherwise could cause severe damage to life on Earth.

Water vapor rising over Antarctica

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast for July 3, 2026. At this time of year very little sunlight is reaching Antarctica, so the temperature over Antarctica can get very low. At the same time, global warming has increased sea surface temperatures and this also keeps air temperatures over water relatively warm. The difference in temperature strengthens wind patterns from the Southern Ocean to Antarctica, which can lead to atmospheric rivers moving toward Antarctica, carrying water vapor and heat from the Southern Ocean to Antarctica.

The red color on the above image indicates high temperature anomalies over Antarctica. The dark blue areas indicate where snow has fallen over the sea ice around Antarctica and over the interior of Antarctica.

As temperatures rise, the water vapor in the air increases. The amount of water vapor that the air can hold rises by 7% for each 1°C temperature rise (Clausius-Clapeyron relation). While much of the water vapor will fall out of the air as precipitation, in the form of rain or snow, some of the water vapor will remain in the air. This extra water vapor increases temperatures, since water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas. The IPCC adds: Water vapor feedback acting alone approximately doubles the warming from what it would be for fixed water vapor. Furthermore, water vapor feedback acts to amplify other feedbacks in models, such as cloud feedback and ice albedo feedback. If cloud feedback is strongly positive, the water vapor feedback can lead to 3.5 times as much warming as would be the case if water vapor concentration were held fixed.

Part of the precipitation will fall over Antarctica in the form of snow, thickening the snow cover there, without returning to the surface of the Southern Ocean. The net result is that the salinity of the Southern Ocean surface increases, facilitating increased melting of Antarctic sea ice, further speeding up the temperature rise, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

The threat is further illustrated by the image below, which shows a forecast of precipitable water standardized anomalies on June 30, 2026.

[ minus 70.2°C near South Pole ]

In the Northern Hemisphere, rising temperatures are narrowing the temperature difference between the Equator and the North Pole, slowing down the wind flow from south to north, resulting in a distorted Jet Stream that goes circular in many areas, and this can increase the severity, intensity, frequency, duration and ubiquity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves and forest fires.

The Jet Stream in the Southern Hemisphere is now very powerful, since the temperature difference is large between the Equator and the South Pole, where temperatures lower than -70°C are recorded, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The situation is further illustrated by the image below, dated July 25, 2026, 09:00 UTC. At a location marked by the green circle, wind at 250 hPa reaches a speed of 321 km/h, while Instantaneous Wind Power Density is 143.1 kW/m².

This can at times cause the Jet Stream to move over parts of Antarctica, enabling warm, moist air to move from the Southern Ocean over Antarctica, which can result in very high temperatures anomalies, as illustrated by the image below that shows a forecast with areas over Antarctica reaching temperature anomalies of about +30°C on July 18, 2026, i.e. winter heatwave conditions in Antarctica.

In the video below, Guy McPherson discussed warming of Antarctica.

Damage to the Ozone Layer

Furthermore, part of the extra water vapor can rise up and moisten the atmosphere up to and above the ozone layer. The combination image below shows relative humidity on June 30, 2026 at 01:00 UTC, with relative humidity reaching up to 100% at surface level (left), up to 100% at 70 mb or hPa (center), and up to 23% at 10 mb or hPa (right).

[ from earlier post ]

Increases in stratospheric water vapor are bad news, as they not only speed up global warming but also lead to loss of stratospheric ozone, as Drew Shindell pointed out back in 2001.

It has long been known that deterioration of the ozone shield increases ultraviolet-B irradiation, in turn causing skin cancer.

Research (box right) suggests that, millions of years ago, it could also have led to loss of fertility and consequent extinction in plants and animals.

Water vapor reaching stratospheric altitudes causes ozone depletion, as James Anderson describes in a 2017 paper and discusses in the short 2016 video below.

[ from earlier post ]

A recent study led by Yifeng Peng finds that moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires since 2005 have systematically increased stratospheric water vapor. Both contribute through aerosol-induced tropopause warming; extreme wildfires also reveal an additional self-lofting pathway that transports water vapor into the stratosphere.

Conclusion

The image below shows annual maximum daily precipitation change with a temperature versus 1850-1900 rise of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C, from the IPCC AR6.

Links

• Moistening Atmosphere
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/moistening-atmosphere.html

• Care for the Ozone Layer
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/01/care-for-the-ozone-layer.html

• Science Snippets: The Catastrophic Warming of Antarctica - video by Guy McPherson

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooJo8ZplPPM

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027-update.html

• Moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires humidify the stratosphere - by Yifeng Peng et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10731-0

discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164444744564679

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Saturday, October 25, 2025

Antarctic sea ice area reaches record daily low

Antarctic sea ice area remained at a record daily low on October 24, 2025, following a record daily low on October 23, 2025. Antarctic sea ice area was 12.40 million km² on October 24, 2025, a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.57σ, as illustrated by the image below.

The above image also shows that Antarctic sea ice reached a record low area of 1.09 million km² on February 24, 2023, close to a Blue Ocean Event and corresponding with a deviation of -2.86σ, i.e. smaller than the deviation of -3.57σ reached recently (on October 23, 2025).

Global sea ice extent

Low sea ice extent means that less sunlight gets reflected back into space and instead gets absorbed by the sea surface, resulting in high sea surface temperatures. Currently, sea ice is low at both poles. The low global sea ice extent at this time of year spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice, which typically reaches its minimum extent in February.

The image below shows that the standard deviation from 1981-2010 of the global sea ice extent was -6.89σ on October 31, 2025, which is remarkable given the absence of El Niño conditions in 2025.

Arctic sea ice volume

Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice volume remains at a record daily low, as it has been for more than a year. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through October 31, 2025.

High temperatures

Low sea ice and polar amplification of the temperature rise contribute to high air temperatures at both poles. The image below shows the September 2025 temperature anomaly compared to 1951-1980.

[ from earlier post ]

The low sea ice and the high temperatures are even more remarkable given the absence of El Niño conditions.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Little sunlight is yet reaching the South Pole at this time of year. While temperatures over Antarctica are still well below zero °C, they are rising fast. Antarctic temperature anomalies were high in September 2025 (see the above image) and in October 2025 (see the image below).

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows the ENSO outlook (CFSv2 ensemble mean, black dashed line) favors La Niña persisting into the early Northern Hemisphere winter 2025-26.

[ image from earlier post ]

The image on the right, adapted from ECMWF, shows the ENSO anomaly and forecast for developments in Niño3.4 through August 2026, indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and grow in strength in the course of 2026.

A record high daily Antarctic temperature was reached on October 26, 2025, corresponding with a temperature anomaly of +5.08°C versus 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below.

The inset on the image below shows high temperature anomalies at both poles vs 1991-2020 on October 26, 2025.

A record high daily Arctic temperature was reached on October 27, 2025, corresponding with a temperature anomaly of +5.99°C versus 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below. The inset on the image below shows high temperature anomalies at both poles vs 1991-2020 on October 27, 2025.

Global temperature anomalies have been rising over the past few months, and reached a record daily high of 15.04°C, an anomaly of +0.93°C versus 1991-2020, on October 25, 2025, as illustrated by the image below.

The following day, on October 26, 2025, the temperature reached another daily high. The image below shows temperature anomalies in red from January 1, 2023, through October 26, 2025, with a non-linear (polynomial) trend added in blue.

Note that the anomalies on the above images are calculated from 1991-2020. When calculated from pre-industrial, the anomalies will be much higher, as discussed in earlier post such as this one.

The image below shows a forecast of the temperature anomaly vs 1981-2010 for November 2025.

The image below shows a forecast of the temperature anomaly versus 1981-2010 for December 2025.

The situation is dire. An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event (sea ice approaching a low of one million km²) threatens to occur in February 2026, triggering an Arctic Blue Ocean Event later in 2026 while the next El Niño is strengthening, which comes with a huge danger of massive amounts of methane erupting from the seafloor.

Southern Ocean sea surface getting more salty

High temperature anomalies are present at both the poles, as illustrated by the image below that shows the situation on October 25, 2025.

High temperatures come with Jet Stream distortion on October 25, 2025, as illustrated by the image below that shows the Jet Stream (at 500 hPa) moving deep over Antarctica.

This came with high precipitable water anomalies over Antarctica, as illustrated by the image below.

This came with snowfall over Antarctica, as illustrated by the image below.

The danger has been discussed in earlier posts such as this one. The increased snowfall thickens the snow on Antarctica with only little freshwater returning to the ocean. As a result, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty, and as also discussed in an earlier post, saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing the cycle.

This leads to a loss of sea ice (and thus loss of albedo and latent heat buffer), as well as less heat getting transferred from the atmosphere into the Southern ocean, while more heat can be transferred from the Southern Ocean to the atmosphere.

The methane danger

The methane danger is illustrated by the image below, adapted from an image issued by NOAA October 29, 2025, showing hourly methane averages recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North.

Danger assessment

A state of emergency is typically declared after a disaster hits a specific area. The idea is that repairs or replacement of buildings, equipment and infrastructure can quickly restore the situation to what it previously was. Insurance companies have traditionally determined premiums for insurance policies by calculating the risk of events by their severity and probability.

However, extreme weather events can increasingly be expected to occur more frequently and important considerations are the intensity and severity at which one specific place gets hit by an event, as well as ubiquity and imminence of such events. As temperatures rise, more extreme weather events can be expected to occur with greater intensity, more frequently, over larger areas, with longer duration and to become more ubiquitous and follow each other up with increasing if not accelerating rapidity.

As the likeliness of a huge and accelerating temperature rise, the severity of its impact, and the ubiquity and the imminence with which it will strike all become more manifest—the more sobering it is to realize that a mere 3°C rise may suffice to cause human extinction.

Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.