Arctic News: Antarctica

Showing posts with label Antarctica. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Will Antarctic sea ice survive the El Niño?

Antarctic sea ice is in danger of collapse, for a number of reasons, as discussed in an earlier post.

High Sea Surface Temperatures

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, illustrates that on October 16, 2026, the sea surface temperature (60°S–60°N) was 20.97°C, and 0.77°C above 1991-2020, the highest anomaly on record in a tie with recent days.

On October 15, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N,0-360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.09°C, and a record high anomaly of 1.03°C versus 1982-2010, as illustrated by the peak on the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer.

The map on the above image (inset bottom) shows global sea surface temperature anomalies on October 15, 2026. Sea surface temperatures look set to remain high or get even higher due to El Niño.

El Niño

[ sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region ]

[ anomaly in the Niño 1+2 region in 2026 ]

The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows that the sea surface temperature was 30.05°C in the Niño 3.4 region on October 17, 2026, a +3.44°C anomaly versus 1982-2010.

The map (inset at the top of the above image) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on October 17, 2026, around the globe, with the Niño 3.4 region highlighted. The Niño 3.4 region is most indicative of El Niño strength.

The combination image on the right shows the sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1981-2010 in the Niño 1+2 region (located closer to South America). A rise of well over 6°C (from under -1.5°C in the top image to +4.87°C in the bottom image) occurred within 10 months.

The image below shows the sea surface temperature anomaly vs 1951-1980 in the Niño 3.4 region over time, with the dotted line indicating anomalies may exceed 4°C above this base in 2026.

The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows El Niño forecasts from October 1, 2026, for the Niño1+2 region (left) and the Niño3 region (right).

The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that the El Niño's peak strength is forecast to occur late 2026.

Antarctic sea ice is already very low. The most rapid loss of Antarctic sea ice typically takes place in November and December, so this year this coincides with a Monster El Niño at its peak strength. The danger is that an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event may occur soon, as early as late 2026, i.e. well before February when Antarctic minimum sea ice typically occurs.

Earth's Energy Imbalance

Earth's Energy Imbalance keeps increasing, as illustrated by the image below, by Leon Simons.

Southern Ocean's sea surface becoming more saline

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, illustrates that the monthly total column precipitable water anomaly in September 2026 was the highest on record.

On September 28, 2026, the surface air temperature in the tropics was 26.41°C, the highest temperature on record for that day and 1.33°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. The map (inset bottom) shows surface air temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on that day, with the tropics highlighted.

The temperature difference between the tropics and parts of Antarctica can be huge, enabling hot and moist air to get carried in the form of atmospheric rivers to Antarctica. As a result, temperature anomalies can be high over Antarctica. The image below shows temperature anomalies on October 5, 2026.

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows precipitable water standardized anomalies on October 5, 2026.

The images below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a forecast of precipitable water standardized anomalies for October 6, 2026.

These atmospheric rivers result in snow falling over Antarctica and thickening of the snow layer there. Evaporation of freshwater from the Southern Ocean has contributed to the sea surface of the Southern Ocean becoming more saline over the past decade, which makes it easier for the sea ice to melt, as discussed in an earlier post.

Sea level rise, sea ice loss and eruption of methane

As the sea surface heats up, several feedbacks are amplifying each other, such as ocean stratification, sea ice decline and sea level rise. At first glance, sea ice decline may not seem to contribute to sea level rise. However, its indirect contribution can be huge. Sea level rise is dominated by ocean thermal expansion (38%) and mass loss from melting glaciers (41%, IPCC AR6 data) and decline of ice sheets on land.

Ocean thermal expansion

Firstly, loss of sea ice indirectly contributes to sea level rise, since sea ice loss comes with albedo loss, resulting in higher temperatures that cause thermal expansion. Oceans absorb more than 90% of the extra heat resulting from Earth's Energy Imbalance. As water absorbs heat, its molecules gain energy, move faster, and spread further apart.

In a 2014 analysis, researchers led by Krisina Pistone calculate that albedo decrease resulting from Arctic sea ice decline between 1979 and 2011 correspond to an additional 6.4 W/m² of solar energy input into the Arctic Ocean region since 1979. Averaged over the globe, this albedo decrease corresponds to a forcing that is 25% as large as that due to the change in CO₂ during this period.

Ice acting as a glue

Secondly, sea ice decline also has an impact on glaciers and ice sheets on land. The Thwaites glacier accounts for some 4% of sea level rise and this could double when taking into account grounding-zone processes. Both the Thwaites glacier and the adjacent sea ice act as a physical buffer, glue or plug holding back ice in the broader West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sea level rise and increased ocean heat result in more heat reaching and melting parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from above and from below, thus further speeding up the sea level rise. Sea ice loss also contributes to destabilization of land ice by resulting in more wave action and ocean heat reaching parts of the ice sheet, causing more melting from below.

Loss of latent heat buffer

Thirdly, with the disappearance of sea ice, the latent heat buffer disappears that would previously consume huge amounts of ocean heat in the process of sea ice melting. Loss of this buffer result in more heat remaining in the ocean, which can destabilize sediments at the seafloor that contain huge amounts of methane. The danger of methane erupting from the seabed near Antarctica was earlier discussed in this post. Melting of ice sheets can also result in isostatic rebound and lead to destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates. Wild weather swings could also cause destabilization of sediments and subsequent methane eruptions, as warned about in this 2014 post and this 2025 post.

Why is this important?

Instead of seeking to maintain and strengthen existing infrastructure, the Climate Plan calls for reductions in traditional energy, communications and transport infrastructure such as roads, bridges, tunnels and rail lines, through a transition to more online work, ordering, education, health diagnosis, etc, supported by microgrids that are powered by batteries and rooftop solar panels, and are interconnected by WiFi, microwave, laser links and solar planes such as the HAP-alpha's Solar Plane. Where needed, eVTOL air taxis can add extra mobility, as discussed in the ArcticNews group and the air taxis group.

The 2005 Hurricane Katrina caused 80% of New Orleans to be flooded, with some parts under 15 feet (4.6 m) of water. The compound effects of sea level rise, high tide and storm surge can be devastating, especially when infrastructure is not built with such dangers in mind. The 2007 article Ten Dangers of Global Warming warns how seemingly unrelated developments can combine, compound and make things progressively worse, with dangers feeding into and reinforcing each other, causing collapse of buildings, infrastructure, industries and of the economic and financial system, adding that - to some extent - a carbon-based currency could take over the role of money locally.

What could be done about it?

The Biochar Economy could be established as follows. A carbon-based currency could be created locally, by imposing fees on land where carbon content decreases due to grazing, logging or other forms of vegetation removal. The fees could fund local rewards where carbon content increases locally, due to planting of perennial fruit trees and legumes such as peas and beans, and due to adding soil supplements such as biochar and olivine sand.

Similarly, fees could be imposed on sales of livestock products and nitrogen fertilizers made with fossil fuel, with revenues used to fund rebates on local purchases of vegan-organic food, biochar kilns, rock crushing machinery, etc. The currency could be expressed in volume or weight of locally-produced biochar, in recognition of the importance of the Biochar Economy, of which an early description was given in this 2011 post and later in this 2014 post.

Low Antarctic sea ice

The combination image below shows Antarctica sea ice concentration by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (center) and Antarctic sea ice thickness (right) on October 11, 2026. The orange line on the image at the center shows the median ice edge 1981-2010.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

On October 2, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 16.796 million km², the lowest extent on record for the day. Extent has been falling since reaching its maximum on September 15, 2026, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC.

Antarctic sea ice extent has fallen recently, and was 16.73 million km² on October 1, 2026, a record low for the time of year.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Antarctic sea ice can be expected to keep falling strongly over the next few months, due to the change in seasons and as El Niño gains in strength.

On October 3, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.81 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest extent and anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.61σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

On October 15, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.92 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -5.31σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

Minimum Antarctic sea ice is typically reached in February, but the 2026 El Niño may cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur early, as early as late 2026. As said, the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength late 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record.

Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

September 2026 sea surface temperature

The image below shows that the September 2026 ocean temperature was 1.10°C higher than 1901-2000, the highest anomaly on record. The added trend reflects El Niño peaking late 2026, contributing to an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event followed by an Arctic Blue Ocean Event.

The image below shows NASA ocean temperature anomalies versus 1880-1920.

Surface temperature

The image below, adapted from nullschool, shows that surface temperatures as high as 3.5°C or 38.3°F were recorded near the coast of the West Antarctic Peninsula and as high as 3.1°C or 37.5°F nearby on land on the West Antarctic Peninsula (inset) on October 15, 2026 17:00 UTC.

[ from the Extinction page ]

Huge temperature rise

Disappearance of Antarctic sea ice would be a horrendous climate disaster, increasing the likelihood of a subsequent Arctic Blue Ocean Event. The danger is that multiple feedbacks associated with sea ice loss, such as albedo loss, will strongly speed up the temperature rise, as described at Double Blue Ocean Event and the Antarctica page.

Eruptions of methane from the seafloor could, on their own, cause the 1200 ppm CO₂e cloud feedback tipping point to be crossed, which in turn can cause global temperatures to rise by 8°C, as discussed in this earlier post.

Temperatures looks set to rise further due to the falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a additional temperature rises due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place as industrial activity collapses.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

The ClimatePlan by Sam Carana calls for implementation of sets of feebates, with fees imposed on sales of polluting products and the revenues from those fees used to fund rebates on cleaner alternatives. Sets of feebates are best implemented ASAP, separately and preferably locally, with disputes handled by Local People's Courts where randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts on whether policies confirm the weight of best-available science. Where needed, Climate Emergency Declarations can support progress.

Links

• Copernicus

https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• NOAA - National Centers for Environmental Information - Global Time Series

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/ocean/tavg/1/0/1850-2026

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4) - Analysis Graphs and Plots - custom plotter
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center - CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder
https://nsidc.org

• Arctic and Antarctic Data archive System - National Institute of Polar Research - Academic Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Levi Cowan - tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Leon Simons - Earth's Energy Imbalance
https://bsky.app/profile/leonsimons.com/post/3mwy3xgypts2y

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Teleconnections: Atmospheric river carrying moisture to Antarctica

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/09/teleconnections-atmospheric-river-carrying-moisture-to-antarctica.html

• Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model - by Mattia Poinelli et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0510-8

discussed on facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164871312359679

• The Biochar Economy

https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar/permalink/234998409882683
https://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2011/09/biochar-economy.html
https://biochareconomy.blogspot.com/2014/08/biochar-builds-real-assets.html

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-climate-plan-by-sam-carana.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration (2023)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Teleconnections: Atmospheric river carrying moisture to Antarctica

The finger on the image below points at an area over Antarctica where a temperature anomaly of about +30°C was recorded on September 13, 2026.

The mechanism causing this very high temperature anomaly on Antarctica is an atmospheric river carrying warm, moist air from the Tropics to Antarctica, on the way taking up water vapor evaporating from the Southern Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.

[ Atmospheric rivers ]

Huge pressure differences facilitate such atmospheric rivers. The image on the right shows moisture flowing from high pressure areas near the Equator to low pressure areas over and around Antarctica. There are a number of causes behind these conditions, as described below.

High air temperatures

Air temperatures in the Tropics are high. The image below shows surface air temperatures in the Tropics through September 16, 2026, when the temperature in the Tropics was 26.28°C or 79.3°F, an anomaly of 1.24°C or 2.23°F versus 1979-2000. The map (inset top right) shows surface air temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on that day, with the Tropics highlighted.

High sea surface temperatures

On the image below, there is barely any cold area left in the North Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures are now starting to rise strongly in the Southern Hemisphere with the change in seasons. Global warming is making things worse and the 2026 El Niño is making things even worse, with extra heat rising up into the atmosphere from oceans. Furthermore, as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down, Antarctic temperatures can be expected to increase, finds a recent study led by Da Nian.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures as much as 8.8°C or 15.8°F higher than 1981-2011 south of Africa (at the green circle) on September 22, 2026.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the El Niño 3.4 region through September 25, 2026, when the temperature was 29.82°C or 85.68°F, an anomaly of 3.16°C or 5.69°F versus 1982-2010, and 4.07°C higher than the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026.

The map (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 25, 2026, around the globe with the Niño 3.4 region highlighted in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is indicative for the development of El Niño.

The image below shows that a record high temperature in the Niño 3.4 region was reached on September 25, 2026, on a tier with November 17, 2015, when there was a strong El Niño. Note that the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026 and the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record.

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows that on September 26, 2026, the sea surface temperature (60°S–60°N) was 21.03°C or 69.85°F, an anomaly of 0.731°C or 1.316°F versus 1991-2020 and the highest anomaly on record, a bit (0.006°C) higher than the 0.725°C reached on January 10, 2024.

[ -70°C near South Pole ]

The map (inset top right) on the above image shows sea surface temperature anomalies on September 26, 2026, with high anomalies showing up across the globe.

Very cold in parts of Antarctica

In winter, temperatures are low in the Southern Hemisphere. The temperature can be -70°C or even lower near the South Pole and parts of Antarctica, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the Antarctica page.

The temperature difference between areas at the Equator and parts of Antarctica can therefore be huge, deforming and increasing in strength the Jet Stream in the Southern Hemisphere, enabling the Jet Stream to cross Antarctica at great strength.

[ precipitable water standardized anomaly ]

The above image illustrates large temperature differences between the Equator and the South Pole causing the Jet Stream to cross Antarctica. At the green circle, wind at 250 hPa is as fast as 259 km/h and Instantaneous Wind Power Density is 79 kW/m² on September 13, 2026.

More water vapor in the air

Water vapor in the air is increasing. High (and rising) temperatures result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming). Global atmospheric water vapor was at a record high of 27.35 kg/m² in August 2026, says Roberta Boscolo. The image on the right shows warm, moist air being carried in the form of an atmospheric river toward and over Antarctica on September 13, 2026.

Snowfall over Antarctica

The image below, from the Antarctica page, shows a 3-hour precipitation accumulation of 16.9 kg/m² on August 25, 2026.

The amount of snow falling on Antarctica can be substantial. The image on the right shows August 2026 total precipitation, with some coastal regions of Antarctica receiving relatively high amounts of precipitation, falling in the form of snow, due to low temperatures, and thickening the snow layer. Most of the snowfall on Antarctica originates from evaporation from the Southern Ocean, making the surface of the Southern Ocean more saline.

The image below shows that on September 12, 2026, a surface temperature of -0.3°C or 31.4°F was recorded near the coast of Antarctica (left), while a temperature of 5.2°C or 41.4°F was recorded over Antarctica at 1000 hPa.

[ Relative humidity in the stratosphere ]

The image on the right shows an area in the stratosphere (at 70 hPa or at about 17.5 km altitude) with a relative humidity of 100% (at the green circle) giving an idea of the strength at which water vapor is getting pushed into the air over Antarctica.

At a relative humidity of 100%, water vapor turns into solid ice crystals, since the temperature of the moist air in the stratosphere is very low (-91.0°C or -131.8°F at the green circle).

Higher salinity in Southern Ocean

Water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and much of the resulting precipitation returns to the Southern Ocean, but some precipitation falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer.

As a result of the extra snowfall over Antarctica, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty. In salty water, sea ice can start melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F), while freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

Loss of Antarctic sea ice

Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop.

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness by the University of Bremen (left) and concentration by NSIDC (right) on September 13, 2026. The orange line on the image on right shows the median ice edge 1981-2010.

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration by the University of Bremen on September 25, 2026 (left) and by Climate Reanalyzer on September 26, 2026 (right).

The Equinox occurred on September 23, 2026, when the Sun was directly above the Equator and both hemispheres received an equal amount of sunlight, as illustrated by the combination image below.

After the Equinox, the Southern Hemisphere started to receive more sunlight than the Northern Hemisphere. The size of Antarctic sea ice is crucially important, as it determines how much sunlight will be reflected back into space. On September 23, 2026, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.802 million km², while Antarctic sea ice extent was 17.306 million km². Furthermore, the Antarctic sea ice is also located much closer to the Equator, thus further causing it to receive more sunlight and reflect more sunlight back into space when it's there.

The image below shows that on September 28, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.59 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -3.84σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

Antarctic sea ice has decreased in extent since September 15, 2026, and extent was 17.058 million km² on September 28, 2026, the second lowest on record after 2023, as illustrated by the image below.

Minimum Antarctic sea ice extent is typically reached in February, but the 2026 El Niño may cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur early, as early as end 2026. As said, the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record. Disappearance of Antarctic sea ice would be horrendous, as described at Double Blue Ocean Event and the Antarctica page.

Ozone layer

An additional danger is water vapor reaching the stratosphere, with destructive impact on the ozone layer. Monthly total column water vapor was at a record high in August 2026. As temperatures keep rising, this danger becomes more and more manifest. Atmospheric rivers carrying moisture to Antarctica are increasingly common events, as discussed at the Antarctica page.

Copernicus found that the 2026 Antarctic ozone hole reached a significant size threshold slightly earlier than average, aligned with 2025. It has also stayed ahead of average, unlike the previous year, as illustrated by the image below.

CAMS chart of the ozone hole area on 12 September 2026. The red line shows the data for 2026 and the dotted line the forecast for the following 5 days. The thicker, darker blue line is the evolution of the ozone hole during 2025, and the lighter blue line represents 2024. The grey colours represent the percentile values and the median between 1979 – 2023.
Data source: CAMS/C3S Credit: CAMS/ECMWF

Conclusion

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Copernicus - Climate Pulse
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Copernicus - Precipitation, relative humidity, soil moisture and river flow for August 2026 https://climate.copernicus.eu/precipitation-relative-humidity-soil-moisture-and-river-flow-august-2026

• Copernicus: Ozone hole reaches notable threshold early again as area increases above average in 2026
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/copernicus-ozone-hole-reaches-notable-threshold-early-again-area-increases-above-average-2026
Also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10164773077179679

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming - by Da Nian et al. (2026)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03427-w
Also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10164124732849679

• Water Vapor Worries
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/water-vapor-worries.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update June 2026

Saturday, August 22, 2026

Antarctic sea ice increasingly in danger

On August 23, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.24°C or 70.23°F, an anomaly of +1°C or +1.8°F from 1982-2010, the highest sea surface temperature on record and the highest anomaly on record. The globe (inset) shows the temperature anomaly vs 1991-2020 on August 23, 2026, with the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) highlighted.

The image below shows the global sea surface temperature anomaly on August 23, 2026.

The image below, from Copernicus, shows a sea surface temperature of 21.1°C or 69.98°F on August 21, 2026, a record high temperature and an anomaly of +0.67°C or +1.21°F from 1991-2020.

High sea surface temperatures have a detrimental impact on sea ice and the 2026 El Niño is on track to become the strongest on record.

On August 23, 2026, the global sea ice area was 3.02 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.58σ. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2016, 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple. Both 2016 and 2023 were strong El Niño years.

Ocean heat is not the only mechanisms causing sea ice decline. Below are eight mechanisms that are heating up the Arctic Ocean and low Arctic sea ice in 2026 will also have a detrimental impact on Antarctic sea ice, threatening to cause a double Blue ocean event.

Eight mechanisms heating up the Arctic Ocean

1. Ocean heat

The image below shows the sea surface temperature anomaly on August 23, 2026, this time with a projection that highlights how much the Arctic Ocean is getting hit by high sea surface temperatures. The blue areas in the Arctic Ocean indicate heavy melting of sea ice. There no longer is a cold area visible south of Greenland, indicating that this cold area has been overwhelmed by rising sea surface temperatures.

Geographic conditions are also important. Warm water is pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. This is illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, showing sea surface temperatures as high as 34°C (or 93.2°F) around North America on August 22, 2026 and illustrating geographic conditions facilitating the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic.

2. Insolation

Another important mechanism is high insolation. In line with seasonal changes, huge amounts of sunlight are reaching the Arctic at this time of year, which directly heats up the water, while heatwaves on land can extend over the Arctic Ocean and hot air can be pushed over the Arctic Ocean due to strong wind, further heating up the water of the Arctic Ocean, especially where the sea ice has now disappeared.

3. Wind patterns and ocean currents

While wind strengthens as temperatures rise, polar amplification of global warming is narrowing the temperature difference between the Equator and the Poles, and this can slow down and distort wind patterns such as the Jet Stream and ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Meriodinal Ocean Circulation (SMOC).

Changes to wind patterns and ocean currents constitute a third mechanism that can at times dramatically increase the polar temperature, e.g. slowing down of AMOC can cause huge amounts of ocean heat to accumulate in the North Atlantic, while a stronger cyclone can abruptly push much of this ocean heat abruptly into the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruption of methane from the seafloor.

4. Albedo

Albedo change constitutes a fourth mechanism. Decline of the snow and ice cover is causing more sunlight to get absorbed by the surface, instead of getting reflected back into space as was previously the case. Many aerosols such as soot (from burning fuel in the Northern Hemisphere) and dust are reaching the Arctic and are settling down on the snow and ice cover, thus contributing to albedo change. Decline of the snow and ice cover and higher temperatures also result in stronger growth of plants and algae, further speeding up the temperature rise due to albedo changes.

Arctic sea ice is in a bad shape. The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 22, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (right).

The image below shows the Arctic on August 8, 2026, illustrating that there can be a huge difference between the bright white color of the snow and ice cover over Greenland (bottom right), the color of melting sea ice (left) and the dark color of the water where the sea ice has disappeared.

5. Emissivity

Research led by Feldman (2014) found that open oceans are much less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum. The research team used a computer model that showed that open oceans hold more far-infrared energy than sea ice, resulting in warmer oceans, melting sea ice, and a 2°C rise in the polar climate after 25-year run.

6. Heatwaves and water from land

As coasts around the Arctic Ocean heat up, this will also heat up run-off from land and the water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean.

This is illustrated by the image on the right that shows sea surface temperatures as high as 18.2°C (or 64.76°F) in the Bering Strait on August 17, 2026. The image below, from an earlier post, shows that on August 19, 2026, the sea surface temperature was 16.2°C (or 29.16°C) higher than 1981-2011 where water of the river Ob flows into the Arctic Ocean (green circle).

Heatwaves on land can extend over the Arctic Ocean, while warm water from land and rivers can additionally warm up the water of the Arctic Ocean.

7. Disappearance of the buffer

The snow and ice cover act as a buffer that consumes heat as the ice melts and permafrost thaws. Disappearance of this buffer constitutes a seventh mechanism that can abruptly and dramatically increase the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean.

8. Further feedbacks and compound impacts

The eighth mechanism includes feedbacks and compound impacts of feedbacks and of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, lightning, fires and ozone, as discussed in posts such as this one. As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean increases, abrupt eruption of huge amounts of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean can also increase temperatures dramatically, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

The image below, from the feedbacks page, illustrates the mechanism of multiple feedbacks amplifying each other and accelerating the heating up of the atmosphere and the water of the Arctic Ocean.

Antarctica

Antarctic sea ice is also in a bad shape. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on August 22, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (right).

The image below shows record high temperatures in the Tropics for the time of year. The image shows temperatures in the Tropics through August 31, 2026, when the temperature was 26.2°C or 79.16°F, an anomaly of +1.27°C versus 1979-2000. The globe shows the temperature anomaly versus 1979-2020 on August 31, 2026. Keep in mind that neither of those periods is a pre-industrial base.

In winter in the Southern Hemisphere, the temperature can be very low on Antarctica. On August 22, 2026, the temperature near the South Pole was below -60°C or -76°F, at the green circle, as illustrated by the image below.

Such large differences between the temperature at the Equator and the temperature at the South Pole come with large pressure differences that are strengthening wind patterns at 250 hPa, where the Jet Streams are located. This is illustrated by the image below, which shows how the flow of the Jet Stream is shaped by differences in pressure levels

The Jet Stream typically goes around Antarctica, forming a barrier that maintains low temperatures over Antarctica and the surrounding sea ice. In this case, however, the Jet Stream is crossing Antarctica, enabling warm, moist air to move over the Southern Ocean and reach Antarctica.

The image below shows an atmospheric river of moisture moving toward Antarctica, with total cloud water of 1.63 kg/m² recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location over the Southern Ocean marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a 3-hour precipitation accumulation of 7.5 kg/m² recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a relative humidity of 100% recorded on August 22, 2026, at a location near the South Pole marked by the green circle.

The image below shows an air temperature of 0.0°C or 32.1°F over the sea surface near Antarctica on August 22, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows that an air temperature of 4.1°C or 39.3°F was recorded over Antarctica at 1000 hPa on August 22, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.

The image below shows a forecast for August 21, 2026, of precipitable water anomalies.

Snowfall over Antarctica

In the Southern Hemisphere, water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and evaporation is getting stronger as temperatures rise.

Part of the resulting precipitation falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post and showing a forecast of high precipitable water anomalies over Antarctica on August 20, 2025.

The forecast underneath further illustrates the potential for warm, moist air to travel in the form of atmospheric rivers toward Antarctica and cause significant snowfall over Antarctica.

[ snowfall over Antarctica, forecast for August 2, 2026 ]

As a result of the extra snowfall over Antarctica, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty.

In salty water, sea ice can start melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F), while freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform.

This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop.

Combined impact of El Niño, Antarctic sea ice loss and methane eruptions

The above mechanism was discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. The dramatic decrease in sea ice around Antarctica in 2023 looks set to continue long-term, due to the compound impact of feedbacks that are self-amplified and/or that amplify each other through albedo loss, lower emissivity, loss of the sea ice's latent heat buffer, ocean current changes, salinity changes, ocean stratification, etc.

On August 13, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 2 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -4.44σ, as illustrated by the image below from an earlier post. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the year 2016 is highlighted in purple.

On August 16, 2026, the Antarctic sea ice area was second lowest on record for that day with a standard deviation of -4.68σ, as illustrated by the above image. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the years 2024 and 2025 are highlighted in purple.

The potential impact of El Niño, loss of Antarctic sea ice and methane eruptions has been discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. While the Antarctic methane danger has been described before, such as in this April 2013 post, the main focus of the Arctic-news blog has long been on the Arctic, in particular on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS). However, research published in 2025 highlights the dire situation in Antarctica, justifying an additional wider focus on global developments, as discussed on facebook.

Conclusion

The image below shows annual maximum daily precipitation change with a temperature versus 1850-1900 rise of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C, from the IPCC AR6.

The situation looks set to deteriorate further. More water vapor causes more warming, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. As more snow falls over Antarctica, the sea surface of the Southern Ocean increases in salinity, which speeds up melting of sea ice. The extra water vapor and increased melting of sea ice can both strongly accelerate the temperature rise, while water vapor that reaches the stratosphere also causes damage to the ozone layer.

Links

• Copernicus

https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• ClimateReanalyzer