Showing posts with label IPCC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IPCC. Show all posts

Friday, May 3, 2024

Is CMIP6 SSP585 the worst-case scenario?

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the temperature in the year 2100, in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario. The image shows how much the temperature will have risen in 2100, at 2 meters above the surface and compared to the period 1979-2000. 


The image below shows a progressive temperature rise reaching 4.589°C in 2100 compared to the same period, i.e. 1979-2000 and in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario.


The 1979-2000 period is relatively recent. The temperature has been rising for longer than that. The image below shows a progressive temperature rise reaching 4.91°C by 2100 in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario when instead using a 1901-2000 period as a base.

The 1901-2000 period is also relatively recent, much later than pre-industrial. When using a pre-industrial base, the temperature rise will be well over 5°C.

As illustrated by the top image, the temperature rise over land will be much higher than over oceans, which makes the situation even more dire, given that most people live on land and could face a rise of  8°C by 2100 in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario.

In a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario, temperatures are projected to keep rising strongly beyond 2100, as illustrated by the image below, from a 2016 paper by Brian O'Neill et al.


In the study by Brian O'Neill et al., CO₂ emissions keep rising until 2100, to then fall gradually to current levels, while the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere keep rising, to remain at levels beyond 2000 ppm and result in a temperature rise of 8°C by 2300 in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario.

Is CMIP6 SSP585 the worst-case scenario?

To check whether CMIP6 SSP585 is indeed the worst-case scenario, one can look at how fast CO₂ is rising. According to the IEA, global energy-related CO₂ emissions grew in 2023, reaching a new record high of 37.4 Gt (or 10.098 GtC). The image below, from a recent post, confirms the recent acceleration in CO₂ concentrations, while showing the potential for CO₂ concentration to cross 1200 ppm before the year 2060.


In other words, CO₂ may well be rising even faster than anticipated in a CMIP6 SSP585 scenario, while this scenario doesn't take into account the potential for CO₂e concentrations to cross 1200 ppm much earlier than 2100 (inset), e.g. before 2060 as illustrated by the red trend in the main image. Furthermore, CMIP6 SSP585 doesn't take into account that, in addition to the temperature rise resulting from high greenhouse gas concentrations, crossing the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm in itself would push up temperatures by a further 8°C.

Indeed, the clouds tipping point could be crossed even earlier when also taking into account methane, nitrous oxide and further greenhouse gases, while there are additional developments such as organic carbon and inorganic carbon release from soils that could further raise both CO₂ concentrations and temperatures. The Extinction page and posts such as this one and this one warn about the potential for a temperature rise of well over 18°C unfolding as early as 2026. 
In conclusion, the temperature looks set to be rising higher and faster at accelerating rate, dwarfing anything seen in previous extinction events, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.


"Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds."




The above image is a screenshot from the video (further above) in which physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer reflects on the first test of the atomic bomb. His haunting words mark the moment when science met conscience.

Similarly, climate change is a destroyer of worlds with unfathomable consequences, yet politicians refuse to heed the warnings, in an unprecedented breach of moral values, neglect of the precautionary principle, betrayal of trust and violation of the duty of care.

As a result, the IPCC persists with downplaying the potential for dangerous developments in efforts to hide the need for the most effective climate action. The IPCC keeps pointing at less effective policies such as support for BECCS and biofuel, while continuing to make it look as if there was a carbon budget to divide among polluters, as if polluters could continue to pollute for decades to come, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Meanwhile, a 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.


Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 - by Brian O'Neill et al. (2016)

• International Energy Agency (IEA) - CO2 Emissions in 2023 report
https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2023

• September 2023, highest anomaly on record?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/september-2023-highest-anomaly-on-record.html

• CO2 keeps accelerating
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/co2-keeps-accelerating.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• The Threat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html

• Amplifying feedback loop between drought, soil desiccation cracking, and greenhouse gas emissions - by Farshid Vahedifard et al. 






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Tuesday, April 4, 2023

IPCC keeps downplaying the danger even as reality strikes

Record hot sea surface


The daily sea surface temperature (SST) between 60°South and 60°North was at a record high on April 2, 2023, i.e. the highest temperature in the NOAA record that started in 1981, as illustrated by the above image. The black line shows this year's SST, up to April 2, 2023. The orange line shows last year's SST, i.e. 2022. The thicker grey line shows SST in the year 2020, when annual temperatures on land and ocean reached a record high, since 2020 was an El Niño year. 

This record high sea surface temperature comes as we're moving into a new El Niño, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA.

There are further reasons why this uptick doesn't come unexpected. The emerging El Niño looks set to coincide with high sunspots, while the 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post. 

Greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising

Reducing emissions is the right thing to do, even though it comes with loss of the aerosol masking effect that causes a rise in temperatures, as discussed in an earlier post. Moreover, greenhouse gas levels aren't falling.

Global monthly nitrous oxide rose to 336.33 ppb in December 2022, as illustrated by the image on the right. A recent study found that atmospheric abundances and emissions of five CFCs (CFC-13, CFC-112a, CFC-113a, CFC-114a and CFC-115) increased between 2010 and 2020.

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) broke three records recently at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image on the right. 

The daily mean (green points) rose to 423.23 ppm (parts per million) on April 12, 2023, a record high in the NOAA record for in situ measurements. The weekly mean CO₂ (red lines) was 422.54 ppm in the week that started April 2, 2023, and the monthly mean CO₂ (blue lines) was 421.00 ppm in March 2023.

Furthermore, CO₂ was as high as about 424.5 ppm in a flask measurement at Mauna Loa, Hawaii recently, as illustrated by the image on the right.

Monthly methane recently rose to above 1950 ppb at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image on the right underneath.

Globally, methane rose to 1924.99 ppb in December 2022, the highest in the NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane record that goes back to July 1983.

The image below has a polynomial trend added based on April 2018 to December 2022 NOAA global methane data and pointing at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027.

The Clouds Tipping Point, at 1200 ppm CO₂e, could be crossed and this on its own could result in a further rise of 8°C. This tipping point could be crossed as early as in 2027 due to forcing caused by the rise in methane alone. When further forcing is taken into account, this could happen even earlier than in 2027.


NOAA's 1924.99 ppb for the December 2022 global methane mean translates into 385 ppm CO₂e when using a 1-year GWP of 200 for methane.

So, adding this 385 ppm CO₂e to 424.5 ppm CO₂ would leave just 390.5 ppm CO₂e for further forcing, before the Clouds Tipping Point would get crossed, as the image on the right illustrates.

Methane at higher altitude can reach even higher levels than NOAA's global marine surface data. As the image further above shows, monthly methane recently rose to above 1950 ppb at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Further changes such as caused by sea ice loss and changes in aerosols can also speed up the temperature rise.

[ see the Extinction page ]
Vast amounts of ocean heat are headed to invade the Arctic. Last year, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September. The continuing rise of ocean heat threatens to trigger massive loss of sea ice and eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post and in this post. 

All this is pushing up temperatures and will likely keep pushing up temperatures even further over the next few years. To say that the situation is dangerous is a vast understatement.

Politicians keep downplaying the danger

Meanwhile, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is reading the Synthesis Report of its 6th Assessment Report line by line, asking for approval from politicians who seek to downplay such dangers. "There are multiple, feasible and effective options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to human-caused climate change, and they are available now" says the IPCC in an earlier news release with the title Urgent climate action can secure a liveable future for all.

The IPCC was created in 1988 by politicians and set up under the UNEP and WMO to provide politicians with the best-available scientific analysis on climate change. Yet, emissions have kept rising ever since, even accelerating, and the situation has continued to become ever more dire. 

Let's face it, the IPCC is an instrument used by politicians to keep downplaying the danger, even as reality strikes it in the face as to how dire the situation is. Politicians control the IPCC and politicians have proven to be prone to make deals in which they sell out climate action. Politicians have forfeited their chance to influence the process.

Climate action flowchart

In conclusion, politicians should be kept as much as possible out of the climate picture. We, the people, should support communities seeking effective climate action. Below is a flowchart showing how climate action can be achieved without politicians.

[ click on images to enlarge ]


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily sea surface temperatures
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Sea surface temperature at record high

• Global increase of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons from 2010 to 2020 - by Luke Western et al. 

• NOAA - greenhouse gases at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 

• NOAA - Recent Daily Average Mauna Loa CO2
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

• NOAA - global methane 
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Saturday, November 12, 2022

There is no Carbon Budget

[ Sam Carana: "There is no carbon budget!" ]

In the above image, the atmosphere is presented as a "bucket" filling with greenhouse gas pollution from fossil fuel use from 1870 to 2020. The image depicts the idea that there is some carbon budget left, before 1.5°C above pre-industrial will be reached. The Global Carbon Project has just issued an update of what it refers to as the Global Carbon Budget. 

[ adapted from Global Carbon Budget 2022 ]
The Global Carbon Project insists that there still is some carbon budget left, even as global fossil fuel C₂O emissions in 2021 were higher than 2020, and are projected to be higher again in 2022 than 2021, as illustrated by the image on the right.

Arctic-news has long said that the suggestion of a carbon budget is part of a narrative that polluters seek to spread, i.e. that there was some budget left to be divided among polluters, as if polluters could safely continue to pollute for years to come before thresholds would be reached that could make life uncomfortable, such as a rise of 1.5°C above pre-industrial. 

For starters, an earlier analysis warns that the 1.5°C threshold may have been crossed long ago. The situation looks set to soon become even more catastrophic. The upcoming El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C over the next few years. Additionally, there will be a growing impact of sunspots, forecast to peak in July 2025. 

Arctic-news has long warned about rising temperatures, not only due to high greenhouse gas levels, but also due to a number of events and developments including a rise of up to 1.6°C due to loss of Arctic sea ice and permafrost, and associated changes, a rise of up to 1.9°C due to a decrease in cooling aerosols, and a rise of up to 0.6°C due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.

More recent posts also warn that the rise could cause the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm CO₂e to be crossed. Accordingly, the total temperature rise could be as high as 18.44°C from pre-industrial by 2026. Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

[ image from quotes, text from 2013 post ]
So, there is no carbon budget left. There is just a huge amount of carbon to be removed from the atmosphere and oceans, a "debt" that polluters would rather be forgotten or passed on to future generations.

This "debt" has been growing since well before the industrial revolution started. Long ago, people should have started to reduce emissions and remove greenhouse gases, as well as take further action to improve the situation, and Arctic-news has long said that comprehensive and effective action must be taken without delay.

The IPCC has betrayed the very scientific basis it was supposed to reflect

The IPCC keeps insisting that there was a carbon budget, and this goes hand in hand with peddling the notion that the temperature rise was still less than 1.5°C. As discussed in an earlier analysis, the temperature has been rising for thousands of years and may have crossed the 1.5°C mark long ago.

Furthermore, the Paris Agreement instructs the IPCC to specify pathways to limit the rise to 1.5°C. In its arrogance, the IPCC on the one hand keeps insisting that 1.5°C has not been crossed, while on the other hand bluntly refusing to specify credible pathways to keep it that way. The untenability of this attitude is illustrated by a recent UN news release Climate change: No 'credible pathway' to 1.5C limit, UNEP warns.

Many studies point at ways improvements could be facilitated, such as by support for solar panels, wind turbines, heat pumps, biochar, vegan-organic food, air taxis, etc. This analysis and this earlier post agree and also conclude that local feebates work best and that it is preferable for decision-making regarding their implementation to be delegated to local communities. The IPCC on the one hand refuses to contemplate policy instruments, yet on the other hand it keeps peddling pet projects pushed by polluters, such as cap-and-trade, nuclear power, CCS, bioenergy and BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage), as illustrated by the image below. 

[ IPCC keeps peddling pet projects pushed by polluters ]

The IPCC keeps downplaying the potential for a huge temperature rise

The IPCC keeps downplaying developments that could lead to a huge temperature rise. Such developments include:

• Rising greenhouse levels due to more emissions by people and collapse of the biosphere, and due to more emissions from forest, peatlands and waste fires;

• Collapse of the cryosphere, including decline of permafrost, glaciers and sea ice loss and latent heat buffer loss resulting in more clouds over the Arctic, more ocean heat moving into the Arctic Ocean and associated seafloor methane releases;

• Loss of cloud reflectivity and the potential for CO₂e levels to cross the clouds tipping point;

• Loss of the aerosol masking effect;

• More water vapor in the atmosphere in line with rising temperatures and as a result from loss of sea ice.

Altogether, these developments have the potential to raise the temperature by 18.44°C from pre-industrial, as discussed at the extinction page. 

One of the most harmful ways in which the IPCC has been downplaying the potential for temperatures to rise is by using a too low Global Warming Potential (GWP) for methane. 

This is illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post. In the IPCC special report Climate Change and Land a GWP for methane is used of 28 over 100 years to assess the impact of AFOLU (agriculture, forestry, and other land use) versus the impact of fossil fuel, etc. The image illustrates the difference in impact when a GWP for methane of 171 over a few years is used instead.

The IPCC seeks to justify its use of a GWP of 28 by focusing on a pulse of methane over 100 years. The impact of such a pulse declines over the years, since the lifetime of methane is only 11.8 years. However, using a pulse to calculate the impact of the total methane in the atmosphere isn't appropriate, because methane doesn't just disappear, but is constantly replenished, or rather is more than replenished, as illustrated by the image further below. Because of this and because of the potentially huge temperature rise within a few years, it makes more sense to calculate the impact of methane over a short period. Over one year, methane's GWP is 200, as discussed at this page. A GWP of 200 is used in the image below (right axis). 

[ from earlier post ]
Very threatening is a rise in methane that kept following the trend depicted in the above image, created with WMO 2015-2021 global annual surface mean methane abundances, with an added trend that points at a potential mean global abundance of methane of more than 700 ppm (parts per million) CO₂e by the end of 2026. The image warns that, if such a trend kept continuing, the clouds tipping point could be crossed as a result of the forcing of methane alone.
The above NOAA image shows a methane monthly average for November 2022 of more than 1950 parts per billion (ppb) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.  

Conclusions

The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan and at the recent post Transforming Society.

Links

• Global Carbon Project - Global Carbon Budget 2022 
https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm

• The upcoming El Nino and further events and developments (2022) 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/11/the-upcoming-el-nino-and-further-events-and-developments.html

• Arctic Methane Monster (2013)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/09/arctic-methane-monster.html

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Methane levels threaten to skyrocket (2014) 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/09/methane-levels-threaten-to-skyrocket.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• Methane Keeps rising
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html

• When will we die? 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• IPCC - Special Report on Climate Change and Land
https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl

• Climate change: No ‘credible pathway’ to 1.5C limit, UNEP warns 
https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129912

• Human Extinction by 2025? 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Transforming Society (2022)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html






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Tuesday, April 5, 2022

Shortcomings of IPCC AR6 WGIII - Mitigation of Climate Change

In the video below, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres comments on the launch of the IPCC AR6 WGIII SPM Mitigation report. 

[ U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres ]

The report has severe shortcomings, including: 

The IPCC makes it look as if the temperature rise could be restricted to 1.5°C above pre-industrial and insists there was a carbon budget left, to be divided by using monetary analysis. 

This narrative results in a failure to highlight in the SPM some key drivers of change (such as heat pumps in buildings and air taxis in transport) and in inappropriately referring to such key drivers of change as 'options', while failing to mention the best policies to achieve the necessary changes, i.e. through local feebates.


The agenda behind this narrative becomes further evident in phrases such as “CCS could allow fossil fuels to be used longer, reducing stranded assets” and “oil and gas assets are projected to be more at risk of being stranded toward mid-century”. 


Instead of “assets” at “risk” of getting “stranded”, these are liabilities that burden the world with a rising cost of clean-up and compensation claims. The IPCC gives CCS further undeserved importance by mentioning it no less than 32 times in the SPM, while a key driver of change such as heat pumps is mentioned only once, and not under buildings but industrial policy. 

The image below, from the report's SPM, shows “options” by sector with the length of each bar indicating their potential for emissions reduction by 2030, while the color inside the bar gives a cost estimate. 

[ from IPCC AR6 WGIII SPM, click images to enlarge ]

These are not genuinely options, since the dire situation leaves little choice and instead makes it imperative to act most urgently, comprehensively and effectively on climate change, in line with the Paris Agreement. 


The Paris Agreement does instruct the IPCC to describe the best pathways to achieve this and the IPCC has until now refused to do so. As Arctic-news blog has pointed out for more than a decade, mitigation is most effectively achieved by offering people a range of options, preferably through local feebates, which will also make such policies more popular, as a 2019 analysis (above) concludes.

[ from earlier post ]

Options are more appropriately realized in the form of feebates that can offer a range of options, with the more polluting options attracting fees and with the revenues used to fund rebates on the cleaner options. 

An example of a wider set of local feebates is depicted in the above analysis of EV policy. A more diverse set of feebates could include not only fees on fuel and fuel-powered vehicles, but also on facilities that sell or process fuel, vehicle registration, parking, toll roads, etc. It's important to act comprehensively, along several lines of action, e.g. to redesign cities and plan for air taxis. 

Given the urgency to act, such lines of action are all best implemented as soon as possible, yet at the same time many lines of action are best kept separate, as illustrated by the above image. 

The image on the right illustrates the difference between using a Gobal Warming Potential (GWP) for methane of 171 over a few years, vs the IPCC's use of a GWP of 28 over 100 years. 


Fees on sales of livestock products can raise revenue for pyrolysis of biowaste, with the resulting biochar added to the soil.  That would also support the transition toward a vegan-organic diet more strongly, in line with the conclusion of an earlier IPCC report that a vegan diet ranks highest regarding mitigation (image right, from an earlier post). 

The Climate Plan prefers local feebates. Where needed, fees can be set high enough to effectively ban specific alternatives.

Furthermore, instead of using money, local councils could add extra fees to rates for land where soil carbon falls, while using all revenue for rebates on rates for land where soil carbon rises.

That way, biochar effectively becomes a tool to lower rates, while it will also help improve the soil's fertility, its ability to retain water and to support more vegetation. That way, real assets are built, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the 2014 post Biochar Builds Real Assets.

Catastrophic Methane Rise 

The IPCC narrative hinges on radical cuts in methane emissions from 2020, as illustrated by the image on the right. 

Instead, methane rose by 15.27 ppb in 2020 and by 16.99 ppb in 2021, the two highest growth levels since the NOAA record began in 1984. 

The combination image below shows the catastrophic rise of methane. The image in the left panel shows a trend based on January 2008-December 2021 monthly mean methane data. 

When extending this trend, current methane concentration would be 1920 ppb. Note that methane in December 2021 was 18.6 ppb higher than in December 2020, and it now is April 2022.


The situation is even worse than depicted in above image, as NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements. Methane tends to rise in the atmosphere and accumulate at higher altitudes. As illustrated by the image below, mean methane level is growing fastest at the higher altitude associated with 293 mb. 


Anyway, have another look at the combination image further above. The right panel shows that, if the trend continues, a concentration of 3840 ppb (i.e. double the current concentration) could be crossed in 2029, which would translate into a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) of 768 parts per million (ppm) at a one-year global warming potential (GWP) for methane of 200. 

The image on the right shows a trend that, if continued, will cross a carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm by 2029. 

Add this 450 ppm for CO₂ to 768 ppm CO₂e for methane and the joint CO₂e could be 1218 ppm in 2029, i.e. it would have crossed the point at which the clouds feedback starts to kick in (at 1200 ppm CO₂e). 

The clouds feedback could thus raise the global temperature by 8°C by 2029, but when also adding the temperature impact of greenhouse gases and further drivers, the clouds tipping point could be crossed much earlier, say by 2026, while a temperature rise of 10°C could happen even before the clouds tipping point gets reached. Drivers could include nitrous oxide (N₂O, see image right), seafloor methane, water vapor, loss of Arctic sea ice and the falling away of the aerosol masking effect, as discussed at the Extinction page.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links


• Secretary-General Warns of Climate Emergency, Calling Intergovernmental Panel’s Report ‘a File of Shame’, While Saying Leaders ‘Are Lying’, Fuelling Flames
https://www.un.org/press/en/2022/sgsm21228.doc.htm

• Mitigation of Climate Change Report 2022: "Litany of broken climate promises" - UN Chief
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8rlLaT8v4Q

• IPCC Climate Change 2022 - Mitigation of Climate Change - Summary for Policymakers
https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf

• IPCC special report Climate Change and Land
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srccl

• IPCC Report Climate Change and Land (review)
• Which policy can help EVs most?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/10/which-policy-can-help-evs-most.html

• Confirm Methane's Importance
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/confirm-methanes-importance.html

• Biochar Builds Real Assets

• The Importance of Methane

• NOAA - Globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data
https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_mm_gl.txt

• NOAA - Globally averaged marine surface annual mean methane data

• NOAA - MetOp satellite methane data - Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)

• NOAA - Mauna Loa CO2 weekly mean and historical comparisons

• Clouds feedback

• Extinction
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Monday, February 28, 2022

What the IPCC impacts report is hiding

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Above image is adapted from content by IPCC AR6 WGII and Peter Carter, expert IPCC reviewer and director of the Climate Emergency Institute. 

The IPCC keeps hiding how much the temperature could already have risen and could rise over the next few years, the associated dangers, and the policies that could most effectively improve the situation. 



1. Hiding the potential rise that has already unfolded
One of the first issues that springs to mind is the IPCC's use of 1850-1900 as a baseline, which isn't pre-industrial as the Paris Agreement called for.


Above image, adapted from a NASA image, shows a January 2022 temperature rise of 1.31°C versus 1885-1915. As the box underneath indicates, a further 0.1°C could be added for ocean air temperatures and another 0.1°C for higher polar anomalies. When calculating the temperature rise from pre-industrial, a further 0.79°C could be added for the period from 3480 BC to 1900, resulting in a total temperature rise from pre-industrial to January 2022 of 2.3°C.


2. Hiding the potential rise to come

While a huge temperature rise has already unfolded, the rise is accelerating, as discussed at earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the image below, an example from an earlier post. 


In other words, an even larger temperature rise threatens to unfold soon, i.e. this could happen over the course of at few years, as illustrated by the stacked bar next to the cartoon above and as discussed at the extinction page.


3. Hiding the largest dangers

The rise that has already unfolded, i.e. the rise from pre-industrial to 2020, could be as much as 2.3°C, as discussed above and at the pre-industrial page. Furthermore, the temperature rise is accelerating. In other words, Earth is already in the danger zone and the question remains what the implications are of a 3°C, 4°C and 5°C rise.



What would be the impact of a 3°C, a 4°C, or a 5°C rise? 

At a 3°C rise, humans will likely go extinct, as habitat for humans (and many other species) will disappear. Such a rise will cause a rapid decline of the snow and ice cover around the globe, in turn making that less sunlight gets reflected back into space. Associated changes are discussed in more detail at this page and this page, and include that the jet stream will further get out of shape, resulting in more extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves and firestorms. Changes to the jet stream will also contribute to a further strengthening of storms, which threatens to at times push large amounts of hot, salty water into the Arctic Ocean, triggering eruptions of more and more seafloor methane, as discussed in an earlier post.

[ from an earlier post  ]
From a 4°C rise, Earth will experience a moist-greenhouse scenario. As the temperature rise gains further momentum, runaway heating may well turn Earth into a lifeless planet, a danger that was discussed in this 2013 post, warning that, without anything stopping the rise, it will continue to eventually destroy the ozone layer and the ice caps, while the oceans would be evaporating into the atmosphere's upper stratosphere and eventually disappear into space.

At 5°C rise, most life on Earth will have gone extinct. A 2018 study by Strona & Bradshaw indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise (see box on the right). As the temperature keeps rising, chances are that all life on Earth will go extinct, as Earth would be left with no ozone layer to protect life from deadly UV-radiation. Furthermore, Earth would no longer have water, an essential building block of life. Soil moisture, groundwater and water in oceans would evaporate and eventually disappear into space, as discussed in an earlier post.

Much of the above was discussed earlier at Most Important Message Ever.

[ from the post When will we die? ]

A rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026. Humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. In the light of this, we should act with integrity.


4. Hiding the very policies that can most effectively improve the situation

The IPCC creates a perception that pollution can continue for decades to come. The IPCC does so by downplaying the size of the temperature rise and the threat of a huge rise within years. The IPCC promotes the idea that there was a “carbon budget” to be divided among polluters that would enable polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. Most importantly, the IPCC has once more failed to do what the Paris Agreement calls for, i.e. for the IPCC to specify the pathways that can best improve the situation, specifically the policies that are needed to facilitate a better future. 

The speed at which a huge temperature rise can unfold makes that many adaption efforts could be wasted or even counter-productive. A 2021 report by Neta Crawford estimates the budgetary costs and future obligations of the post-9/11 wars at about $8 trillion in 2021 dollars. Much of that money was spent on securing the supply and transport of fossil fuel. Governments spend $1.8tn a year on subsidies that harm the environment, a study by Doug Koplow et al. finds. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8% of GDP and are expected to rise to 7.4% of GDP in 2025, a 2021 IMF report finds. 

Perverse subsidies are even higher when also including money that now goes into constructing transport infrastructure such as roads, highways, tunnels, bridges, railways, airports, etc. Redirecting such funding could enable more people to work and study from home with time to spare and gardens to grow their own food, instead of commuting by car over roads to offices, schools, etc.

[ from earlier post ]
Electric VTOL air taxis can replace a huge part of the traffic that now demands expensive infrastructure such as roads, railways including service stations, parking buildings and strips, bridges, tunnels, etc. Air taxis can facilitate a dramatic reduction in the need for traffic infrastructure, which also includes space now used for garages and parking.

If much of this traffic instead takes place by air taxis, then urban design can have more space for outdoor dining, parks, markets, tree-lined footpaths, bike-tracks, etc. 

Furthermore, drones could be used for transport and delivery of cargo, pharmaceuticals, etc. In many places, cities can become more compact and buildings can be put closer together, thus reducing overall cost and enabling people to reach destinations quicker, either by walking or cycling. Air taxis can bring people to many destinations fast, while people can also using online facilities to further reduce the need for transport and travel infrastructure.

In other places, the space now used for roads and parking could instead be used to create urban forests, to extend gardens and to create community gardens and markets where people can get locally-produced vegan-organic food such as fruit and vegetables.

Much additional infrastructure can also change, such as traffic lights and road signs, streetlights and the electricity grid. Supply of natural gas could be replaced by electric devices such as heat-pumps, induction-cookers and electric water-heaters. Organic waste can be pyrolysed with the resulting biochar added to the soil.

For more on the Urban Heat Island effect, see:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/airtaxis/posts/419568755612304


For more on biochar and pyrolysis, see:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar


Conclusion

The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.


Links

• IPCC AR6 WGII - Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

• Is the IPCC creating false perceptions, again?

• Human Extinction by 2022?

• NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4)
• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Aerosols
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html

• Clouds feedback
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Could Earth go the same way as Venus?
• Accelerating Methane Rise
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/accelerating-methane-rise.html

• Protecting Nature by Reforming Environmentally Harmful Subsidies: The Role of Business Prepared - by Doug Koplow and Ronald Steenblik (2022) 
https://www.earthtrack.net/sites/default/files/documents/EHS_Reform_Background_Report_fin.pdf

• The U.S. Budgetary Costs of the Post-9/11 Wars - by Neta Crawford (2021)
https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2021/Costs%20of%20War_U.S.%20Budgetary%20Costs%20of%20Post-9%2011%20Wars_9.1.21.pdf

• IMF - Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/09/23/Still-Not-Getting-Energy-Prices-Right-A-Global-and-Country-Update-of-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-466004

• Which policy can help EVs most?
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html




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