Arctic News: rise

Showing posts with label rise. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Sea ice alert

Sea ice

The image shows Arctic sea ice extent from October 14 to November 11, a period during which Arctic sea ice extent growth was slow in 2016, 2019 and 2020. The red line shows 2024 extent through November 5, 2024, when growth in Arctic sea ice extent was slow too, which is worrying, since El Niño conditions were prominent in 2016 and 2019, whereas La Niña conditions were prominent in October 2024 through November 5, 2024. Higher than usual temperatures during El Niño years typically slow down Arctic sea ice extent growth at this time of year. It is worrying for slow growth to occur during La Niña conditions in 2024.

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice extent during the months September and October, highlighting extent in 2023 and 2024, as compared to extent averages in previous decades.

As illustrated by the above image, Antarctic sea ice extent in September and October 2023 & 2024 was much lower than in previous decades, a huge difference that occurred during a period when little or no sunlight was reaching Antarctic sea ice. On November 9, 2024, Antarctic sea ice extent was 14.99 million km², a record low for the time of year.

Global sea ice typically reaches its annual maximum extent around this time of year, as Arctic sea ice expands in extent. On November 9, 2024, global sea ice extent was 23.34 million km², a record low for the time of year and well below the 24.15 million km² on November 9, 2023.

Higher ocean heat in combination with higher air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean are two drivers behind the slow growth in Arctic sea ice extent.

More than 1.5°C above 1903-1924 for 16 consecutive months

The above image, created with NASA data through October 2024 while using a 1903-1924 custom base, illustrates that the monthly temperature anomaly has been more than 1.5°C above this base for 16 consecutive months. The red line shows a trend (2-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with recent data and the trend indicates that the anomaly is rising.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The map on the right with October 2024 temperature anomalies from 1951-1980 based on NCEP data shows high polar anomalies.

Similarly, the map below with October 2024 temperature anomalies from 1951-1980 based on ERA5 data shows high polar anomalies.

The 1951-1980 base for the maps is NASA's default base, but neither 1951-1980 nor the above 1903-1924 is pre-industrial. When using a pre-industrial base, anomalies are higher.

Jet Stream distortion

As a result of the narrowing temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics, the Jet Stream gets distorted. The image below shows a distorted Jet Stream (250 hPa) over the North Atlantic on November 11, 2024.

Precipitation

The image below shows an atmospheric river stretched out over the North Atlantic from the Tropics to the Arctic with high rainfall over the North Atlantic and snowfall over Greenland on November 11, 2024.

Water vapor

The image below shows a forecast for November 12, 2024, with precipitable water anomalies at the high end of the scale over the Arctic Ocean.

Feedbacks

The image below illustrates how multiple feedbacks can interact and jointly contribute to further acceleration of the temperature rise.

[ from earlier post ]

There are many feedbacks and other mechanisms active and they are interacting on top of driving up temperatures individually.

Albedo change is a feedback that can have a huge impact. The currently very low global sea ice extent is a self-reinforcing feedback, as it results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and more heat getting absorbed by oceans.

Extra water vapor is another self-reinfocing feedback, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas.

These are just some of the feedbacks that can contribute to further acceleration of the temperature rise, as discussed in an earlier post.

Carbon dioxide keeps rising

The above image shows carbon dioxide on November 12, 2024 - forecast for 03 UTC by Copernicus. The graph at the bottom of the image shows monthly carbon dioxide exceeding 425 ppb in October 2024 at Mauna Lao, Hawaii, based on NOAA data with trend added.
The image on the right shows the total precipitation standardized anomaly over the past few years in Brazil.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image underneath on the right shows the total precipitation standardized anomaly over the past few years in Africa.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• National Institute of Polar Research Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp

• NSIDC - Interactive sea ice chart
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Sunday, September 22, 2024

High temperatures despite La Niña?

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Temperatures remain extremely high, even though La Niña conditions may already be present, as illustrated by the above image, showing sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) versus 1981-2011.

The image on the right shows the Northern Hemisphere (-90°,90°) with SSTA as high as 24.8°F (13.8°C) in Hudson Bay (green circle) on Sep. 22, 2024. There are only very few cold spots, while massive amounts of ocean heat are present in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific.

On September 26, 2024, the sea surface temperature (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E) was 20.97°C, a record high for the time of year and 0.83°C above the 1982-2010 average, as illustrated by the image below.

North Atlantic (0-60°N 0-80°W) sea surface temperature anomalies remained high and reached a record high for the time of year on September 26, 2024, as illustrated by the image below (SSTA vs 1882-2011).

The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface reached a temperature of 24.97°C (76.95°F) on September 22, 2024, a record high for the time of year and 1.07°C (1.926°F) above 1991-2020 or 1.3°C (2.34°F) above 1981-2010. The image also shows a 0.23°C difference in anomalies when shifting the base by a decade, indicating that the anomaly would be much higher when calculated from a pre-industral base.

The image below, by Brian McNoldy shows that ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico was at a record high for the time of year on September 23, 2024.

La Niña conditions may already be present

The black dashed line in the image below, adapted from NOAA, indicates a transition to La Niña in October 2024, persisting through Jan-Mar 2025.

The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that El Niño conditions were present from June 2023 through April 2024, and that ENSO-neutral started in May 2024.

While El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, as NOAA explains, El Niños can occur as frequently as every two years, as happened in 2002, 2004 and 2006, as the above image shows. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C.

The danger is that we could move into a new El Niño in 2025, while sunspots move toward a peak and while temperatures remain high due to Earth's high Energy Imbalance and due to feedbacks, as discussed in a recent post. The peak in sunspots in this cycle is expected to occur in July 2025, at which time Arctic sea ice may disappear, triggering further feedbacks, leading to a huge temperature rise by end 2026 that could drive humans into extinction.

The above image from Copernicus illustrates that, for many months, the temperature anomaly has been high, i.e. about 0.8°C (± 0.3°C) above the 1991-2020 average and much more when compared to a pre-industrial base, with little or no sign of a return to earlier temperatures.

The above image illustrates that global daily mean near-surface (2m) air temperature anomalies vs 1991-2020 (Copernicus) have been above about 0.5°C for almost 16 consecutive months, i.e. since El Niño started (in June 2023, blue shade) and under ENSO-neutral conditions (starting May 2024). La Niña is expected to start October 2024 and the added trends point at a continued rise.

The danger of methane hydrates getting destabilized

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image on the right shows sea surface temperatures as high as 32.6°C on September 21, 2024. The image also shows the Gulf Stream pushing ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean.

This flow of ocean heat can be accelerated by storms that are amplified due to high sea surface temperatures, deformation of the Jet Stream and a freshwater lid forming at the surface of the North Atlantic.

At the same time, Arctic sea ice starts expanding rapidly in extent at this time of year, effectively sealing off the Arctic Ocean and making it hard for heat to get transferred from the surface of the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere.

As discussed in earlier posts, Arctic sea ice has become very thin, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic.

Sea ice constitutes a latent heat buffer, consuming incoming heat as it melts. While the ice is melting, all energy (at 334 J/g) goes into changing ice into water and the temperature remains the same. Once all ice has turned into water, all subsequent energy goes into heating up the water, and will do so at 4.18 J/g for every 1°C the temperature of the water rises.

[ The Latent Heat Buffer ]

Ocean heat that was previously consumed by melting the sea ice, can no longer get consumed by melting of the sea ice once Arctic sea ice has become very thin, and further incoming heat instead gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, rapidly pushing up the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean.

The danger is that, as the water of the Arctic Ocean keeps heating up, more heat will reach the seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

The image below illustrates how incoming ocean heat that previously was consumed in the process of melting of the sea ice, is now causing the water of the Arctic Ocean to heat up, with more heat reaching the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which has seas that in many places are very shallow.

[ Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]

Eruptions from hydrates occur at great force, since the methane expands 160 times in volume when it vaporizes, resulting in the methane rapidly rising in the form of plumes, leaving little or no opportunity for microbes to decompose the methane in the water column, which especially applies to the many areas where the Arctic Ocean is very shallow. Furthermore, the atmosphere over the Arctic contains very little hydroxyl, resulting in methane persisting in the air over the Arctic much longer than elsewhere.

Links

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Ocean Heat Content - by Brian McNoldy
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202408/supplemental/page-4

• NOAA - El Niño and La Niña
https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/weather-atmosphere/el-nino

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Copernicus - pulse
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Freshwater lid on the North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Latent Heat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Will we be alive in 2025, who will survive, 2025?

The above image, created with monthly mean global temperature anomalies by LOTI Land+Ocean NASA/GISS/GISTEMP v4 data while using a 1903-1924 base, has a trend added based on Jan 2016-Aug 2024 data. The image also shows that anomalies could be 0.99°C higher when using a more genuine pre-industrial base.

The image below featured in an earlier post and was created with an image from the NASA website while using an 1885-1915 base, illustrating the calculation behind this 0.99°C. More details are here.

The image below from Copernicus illustrates that, for more than 14 consecutive months, the temperature anomaly has been high, i.e. about 0.8°C (± 0.3°C) above the 1991-2020 average and much more when compared to a pre-industrial base, with little or no sign of a return to earlier temperatures.

The image below, from an earlier post and created with an image from the NASA website while using a 1903-1924 base, confirms that the monthly temperature anomaly through August 2024 has been more than 1.5°C above this base for each of the past consecutive 14 months. The post adds that anomalies will be even higher when compared to a pre-industrial base. The red line shows a trend produced by the NASA website (2-year Lowess Smoothing).

Potential causes for such a rapid temperature rise include a cataclysmic alignment of the temperature peak of the next El Niño coinciding with a peak in sunspots expected to occur in July 2025.

The black dashed line in the image below, adapted from NOAA, indicates a transition to La Niña in October 2024, persisting through Jan-Mar 2025.

The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that El Niño conditions were present from June 2023 through April 2024, and that ENSO-neutral started in May 2024.

The danger is that we could move into a new El Niño in 2025, while temperatures remain high due to feedbacks and while sunspots move toward a peak in this cycle, expected to occur in July 2025.

The image below (top part), adapted from NOAA, shows the observed values for the number of sunspots for cycle 25, through August 2024, as well as the values predicted by NOAA (red line).

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

The above image (bottom part) shows the observed values for the F10.7cm radio flux for cycle 25, through August 2024, as well as the values predicted by NOAA (red line).

The observed values are much higher than predicted. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from early 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C.

This - in combination with further events, developments and short-term variables - could constitute a cataclysmic alignment that could result in runaway temperature rise by 2026, as an earlier post concluded.

Natural variability is mentioned by the IPCC, but because such events vary from year to year, their impact is smoothed out in climate change calculations that average the temperature rise over the course of decades. Yet, when such events coincide in a cataclysmic alignment, as could be the case within the next few years, the extra rise in temperature from - say - the year 2021 could be over 0.75°C. Note that this is an extra rise, on top of the long-term rise due to activities by people since pre-industrial.

Furthermore, as emissions and temperatures keep rising, such an extra rise could trigger feedbacks that threaten to grow in strength and strike with ever greater ferocity, further accelerating the temperature rise while extreme weather disasters hit numerous regions around the world more frequently over larger areas, with greater intensity and for longer periods.

Such feedbacks include loss of sea ice and permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases. Temperature anomalies are high and Arctic sea ice volume is very low, as illustrated by the compilation of images below, adapted from nullschool, Climate Reanalyzer and the Danish Meteorological Institute.

Ominously, high methane concentrations (well over 2400 ppb) were recently recorded at the observatory in Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.

Slowing down of ocean currents could cause less heat to move deep into the ocean and more heat to instead accumulate at the surface, while more water vapor would enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA data.

[ surface precipitable water through August 2024 ]

The compilation image below, with forecasts for September 20, 2024 03 UTC (run 00 UTC) adapted from Copernicus, illustrates gases and biomass-burning aerosols released due to forest fires burning in the Amazon. Formaldehyde and carbon monoxide cause hydroxyl depletion and thus extend methane's lifetime.

Conflict and socio-economic stress could add further forcing. Heatwaves, fires, famine, drought, floods, crop loss, loss of habitable land and corrupt politicians threaten to cause violent conflicts to erupt around the world, industrial activity to grind to a halt and the temperature to rise above 3°C from pre-industrial, driving humans into extinction. Sadly, politicians and mainstream media fail to inform people about the danger, and once the full horror reveals itself, panic could be added to the problems the world faces.

Dangers associated with high temperatures are discussed in this earlier post. A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.

Links

• NASA - Gistemp
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html

• Water Vapor Feedback
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/water-vapor-feedback.html

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202408/supplemental/page-4

• NOAA - El Niño and La Niña

https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/weather-atmosphere/el-nino

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Cataclysmic Alignment threatens Climate Catastrophe

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/cataclysmic-alignment-threatens-climate-catastrophe.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Copernicus - pulse
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Copernicus - atmosphere

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams

• Water Vapor feedback
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/water-vapor-feedback.html

• High feels like temperature forecast
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/high-feels-like-temperature-forecast.html

• When will we die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Cataclysmic Alignment threatens Climate Catastrophe

Sunspots In a cataclysmic alignment, the next El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots are higher than expected. Sunspots are expected to reach a peak in the current cycle in July 2025.

The image below (top part), adapted from NOAA, shows the observed values for the number of sunspots for cycle 25, through August 2024, as well as the values predicted by NOAA (red line).

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image (bottom part) shows the observed values for the F10.7cm radio flux for cycle 25, through August 2024, as well as the values predicted by NOAA (red line).

The observed values are much higher than predicted. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from early 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C.

El Niño

High sunspots could line up with an upcoming El Niño and with further forcing by short-term variables, in a cataclysmic alignment that could push up the temperature enough to cause dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise by 2026.

ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present and a transition to La Niña is expected by September-November 2024, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post and adapted from NOAA. The La Niña may be short-lived and a transition to the next El Niño may occur in the course of 2025.

The image below, from an earlier post and adapted from NOAA, illustrates that El Niño conditions were present from June 2023 through April 2024, and that ENSO-neutral started in May 2024.

El Niño occurs every 2–7 years. The image shows that El Niño can occur as frequently as every two years, e.g. in 2002, 2004 and 2006. The danger is that we could move into a new El Niño in 2025, while temperatures remain high due to feedbacks and while sunspots move toward a peak in this cycle, expected to occur in July 2025.

This - in combination with further events, developments and short-term variables - could constitute a cataclysmic alignment that could result in runaway temperature rise by 2026, as an earlier post concluded. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C. Sunspots could make a difference of more than 0.25°C. Further forcing could be added by additional events, e.g. submarine volcano eruptions could add huge amounts of water vapor to the atmosphere.

Further forcing

Natural variability is mentioned by the IPCC, but because such events vary from year to year, their impact is smoothed out in climate change calculations that average the temperature rise over the course of decades. Yet, when such events coincide in a cataclysmic alignment, as could be the case within the next few years, the extra rise in temperature from - say - the year 2021 could be over 0.75°C. Note that this is an extra rise, on top of the long-term rise due to activities by people since pre-industrial.

Furthermore, as emissions and temperatures keep rising, such an extra rise could trigger feedbacks that threaten to grow in strength and strike with ever greater ferocity, further accelerating the temperature rise while extreme weather disasters hit numerous regions around the world more frequently over larger areas, with greater intensity and for longer periods.

Conflict and socio-economic stress could add further forcing. Heatwaves, fires, famine, drought, floods, crop loss, loss of habitable land and corrupt politicians threaten to cause violent conflicts to erupt around the world, industrial activity to grind to a halt and the temperature to rise above 3°C from pre-industrial, driving humans into extinction by 2026. Sadly, politicians and mainstream media fail to inform people about the danger, and once the full horror reveals itself, panic could be added to the problems the world faces.

Links

• NOAA - Space Weather Prediction Center
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Saturday, August 10, 2024

Paris Agreement thresholds crossed

High temperatures persist

The image below, created with NASA data while using a 1903-1924 custom base, illustrates that the temperature anomaly through July 2024 has been more than 1.5°C above this base for each of the past consecutive 13 months, and even more when compared to a pre-industrial base. The red line shows the trend (one-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with the rapid recent rise.

On August 19, 2024, the daily global air temperature was 16.9°C (62.42°F), an anomaly of +0.8°C (+1.44°F) versus 1991-2020, the highest temperature and anomaly on record for this day of the year, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Copernicus.

Copernicus has meanwhile upgraded the anomaly versus 1991-2020 to 0.81°C (1.458°F) for August 19, 2024. Climate Reanalyzer recorded an anomaly versus 1991-2020 of 0.82°C (1.476°F) for August 19, 2024, as illustrated by the image below.

Temperatures have been high for 14 consecutive months, i.e. about 0.8°C (± 0.3°C) above the 1991-2020 average and much more when compared to a pre-industrial base, with no sign of a return to earlier temperatures. On August 31, 2024, the temperature was 0.78°C above 1991-2020, the highest anomaly on record for that day of the year.

ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present and a transition to La Niña is expected by September-November 2024, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. The La Niña may be short-lived and a transition to the next El Niño may occur in the course of 2025.

The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that El Niño conditions were present from June 2023 through April 2024, and that ENSO-neutral started in May 2024.

The danger is that we could move into a new El Niño in 2025, while temperatures remain high due to feedbacks and while sunspots move toward the peak of this cycle, expected to occur in July 2025. This - in combination with further events and variables - could constitute a cataclysmic alignment that could result in runaway temperature rise by 2026, as an earlier post concluded and as illustrated by the image below.

In a cataclysmic alignment, the next El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots are higher than expected and peak in July 2025.

As emissions keep rising, feedbacks threaten to grow in strength and strike with ever greater ferocity, further accelerating the temperature rise while extreme weather disasters hit the world more frequently over larger areas, with greater intensity and for longer periods.

Heatwaves, fires, famine, drought, floods, crop loss, loss of habitable land and corrupt politicians threaten violent conflicts to erupt around the world, industrial activity to grind to a halt and the temperature to rise above 3°C from pre-industrial, driving humans into extinction by 2026.

IPCC keeps downplaying the danger

Note that neither the 1903-1924 base, nor the 1991-2020 base, nor the 1901-2000 base in above images is pre-industrial. The IPCC keeps downplaying the danger, e.g. by claiming that we're still well below the 1.5°C threshold, but when using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature anomaly has for the past thirteen months also been above the 2°C threshold that politicians at the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed.

[ from earlier post ]

The above image, from an earlier post, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The red line (a 6 months Lowess smoothing trend) highlights the steep rise that had already taken place by then.

[ image from a 2014 post ]

Additionally, the IPCC refers to a "carbon budget" as if there was an amount of carbon to be divided among polluters and to be consumed for decades to come.

The image on the right illustrates the fallacy of offsets, net-zero and a "balance" between sources and sinks.

Instead, comprehensive and effective action is needed on multiple lines of action, simultaneously yet separately.

Indeed, action is needed to reduce concentrations of carbon both in oceans and in the atmosphere, while on land, the soil carbon content needs to increase, which can be achieved by methods such as pyrolysis of biowaste and adding the resulting biochar to the soil, which will reduce emissions, reduce fire hazards, sequester carbon, support the presence of moisture & nutrients in the soil and thus support the health & growth of vegetation, as discussed at the Climate Plan group and the biochar group.

The IPCC has not only failed to warn about the size of the temperature rise from pre-industrial, the IPCC has also failed to warn about developments contributing to such a rise and failed to point at the best ways to combat the rise.

Higher temperatures come with feedbacks, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.

As illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, the July 2024 temperature anomaly was huge over and around much of Antarctica.

As illustrated by the image below, also adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, Antarctic temperatures were still increasing in early August, 2024.

The IPCC failed to warn about Antarctic snow and ice cover decline, and - importantly - the amplifying impact of Antarctic sea ice decline on the global temperature rise. This was addressed in an earlier post as follows:
Sea ice loss results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead getting absorbed by the ocean and the impact of Antarctic sea ice loss is even stronger than Arctic sea ice loss, as Antarctic sea ice is located closer to the Equator, as pointed out by Paul Beckwith in a video in an earlier post. A warmer Southern Ocean also comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as discussed here and here. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this 'pattern effect' could make a huge difference globally, as this study points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the feedbacks page).

Sea surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere

After an astonishing rise in 2023, sea surface temperature anomalies fell for six months in the Northern Hemisphere and then rose again for four months, threatening to cause dramatic sea ice loss over the next few months and destabilize sediments at the seafloor, resulting in huge amounts of methane erupting and abruptly entering the atmosphere.

[ image created with NOAA data, click on images to enlarge ]

Deformed Jet Stream pushing more heat toward Arctic Ocean

As the Jet Stream gets more deformed due to polar amplification of the temperature rise, this can at times result in strong winds speeding up ocean currents that carry heat toward the Arctic Ocean.

The above image, adapted from NOAA, illustrates the huge amount of heat present in the ocean around North America, with sea surface temperatures as high as 33.1°C (91.58°F) recorded on August 27, 2024.

Huge amounts of heat are carried along the path of the Gulf Stream, from the Gulf of Mexico through the North Atlantic to the Arctic Ocean.

Local peak temperatures can be even higher. A sea surface temperature of 35.9°C (96.5°F) was recorded by station 256 in the Gulf of Mexico on August 11, 2024, as illustrated by the image below, created with cdip.ucsd.edu content.

The image by Brian McNoldy below shows that ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico at record high on August 25, 2024.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image on the right shows the July 2024 sea surface temperature anomaly (Northern Hemisphere view), created with a Climate Reanalyzer image.

The image below shows a deformed Jet Stream (at 250 hPa) with many circular wind patterns. Winds merge off the North American coast, reaching speeds as high as 374 km/h (232 mph, at green circle). Such strong winds can strongly cool the sea surface due to evaporation, while forming a freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic that enables more warm subsurface water to flow toward the Arctic Ocean. The image shows part of the Jet Stream moving all the way across the Arctic Ocean, speeding up ocean currents that melt the sea ice and cause further heating up of the water of the Arctic Ocean.

While slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) can hold back the flow of ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean, at the same time more heat will accumulate at the surface of the Atlantic Ocean. Higher sea surface temperatures come with greater stratification (image below, from earlier post).

Meltwater and rain can contribute to formation of a freshwater lid that expands at the surface of the North Atlantic. This, in combination with greater stratification (above image), can enable more ocean heat to travel underneath this lid from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean, and this can occur abruptly at times when a deformed Jet Stream causes storms that speed up ocean currents along this path. The image below illustrates a cold freshwater lid forming at the surface of the North Atlantic. To a lesser extent (due to less meltwater), a lid can also form at the surface of the North Pacific along the path of the Kuroshio Current.

Arctic sea ice

The image below, adapted from the Danish Metereological Institute, shows that Arctic sea ice volume on August 31, 2024, was at a record low for the time of year, as it has been for most of the year.

Arctic sea ice has become very thin over the years. The combination image below, created with Naval Research Laboratory images, shows a forecast for Arctic sea ice thickness on August 16, run the day before, for the years 2014, 2023 and 2024.

The image below shows sea ice disappearing over large parts of the Arctic Ocean including near the North Pole, with a NASA satellite image on the left showing the situation on August 27, 2024 and a University of Bremen images on the right showing sea ice concentration on August 26, 2024.

The screenshot below, from an earlier post, further illustrates the danger.

High methane levels over Arctic

Meanwhile, peak methane levels as high as 2414 parts per billion (ppb) were recorded by the NOAA 21 satellite at 399 mb on August 13, 2024 AM, with a global mean of 1938 ppb.

By comparison, the NOAA 20 satellite recorded peak levels as high as 2336 ppb at 487 mb on August 13, 2024 AM, with a global mean of 1943 ppb.

As illustrated by the image below, high methane levels were recently recorded at the observatory in Barrow, Alaska.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.