Methane levels as high as 2845ppb

Methane levels as high as 2845 parts per billion (ppb) were recorded on April 25, 2015, as illustrated by the image below.

This is an extremely high peak. The average daily peak in 2015 until May 1 was 2371 ppb, while the highest daily mean ranged from 1807 ppb (January 10) to 1829 ppb (April 22). Daily peaks and daily highest mean levels in 2015 are shown on the image below.

These peaks are much higher than they were in previous years, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post and showing the average highest peak readings in 2013 and 2014 at selected altitudes..

Peak readings in above image are averages over April 2013 and April 2014. On specific days, peak readings could be much higher, e.g. on April 28, 2014, methane levels were recorded as high as 2551 ppb at 469 mb. As said, methane levels as high as 2845 ppb were recorded on April 25, 2015, while the average peak for the first four months of 2015 was 2371 ppb, and this average was calculated from peaks across altitudes.

The table below shows the altitude equivalents in mb (millibar) and feet.

56,925 ft	44,689 ft	36,850 ft	30,569 ft	25,543 ft	19,819 ft	14,383 ft	8,367 ft	1,916 ft
74 mb	147 mb	218 mb	293 mb	367 mb	469 mb	586 mb	742 mb	945 mb

Peak levels in April appear to be rising strongly each year, following higher peak readings during previous months, especially at higher altitudes, i.e. especially the Arctic Ocean. It appears that much of the additional methane originating from the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere has moved closer to the equator over the past few months, and is now accumulating at higher altitudes over the continents on the Northern Hemisphere, i.e. Asia, Europe, North America and north Africa.

Further analysis of the rise in global mean methane levels appears to confirm the above. The image below shows methane levels on April 22, over three years. While there appears to be little or no rise in mean methane levels at low altitudes, the rise is quite profound at higher altitudes.  

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Things look set to get worse. As shown by the image below, from an earlier post, global methane levels have risen sharply from a low of 723 ppb in 1755. Mean methane levels were as high as 1839 ppb in 2014. That's a rise of more than 254%.

As that post concluded a year ago, it appears that the rise of methane in the atmosphere is accelerating. What can we expect? As temperatures can be expected to continue to rise and as feedbacks start to kick in, this may well constitute a non-linear trend. The image below shows a polynomial trend that is contained in IPCC AR5 data from 1955 to 2011, pointing at methane reaching mean global levels higher than 3000 ppb by the year 2030. If methane starts to erupt in large quantities from clathrates underneath the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, this may well be where we are heading. 

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan.

The 2845 ppb recorded on April 25, 2015, is an extremely high peak. The average daily peak in 2015 until now was 2372...
Posted by Sam Carana on Monday, April 27, 2015

Warm waters threaten to trigger huge methane eruptions from Arctic Ocean seafloor

The evidence of abrupt high methane releases in the Arctic Ocean is accumulating. The graph below shows in situ methane measurements taken at the Barrow Observatory, including recent levels as high as close to 2200 parts per billion (ppb).

Satellite data picture a similarly dire situation. Global mean methane levels as high as 1831 ppb were recorded on the morning of July 30, 2014, while peak methane levels as high as 2330 ppb were recorded that morning. More recently, peak methane levels as high as 2522 ppb were recorded (on August 2, 2014).

IPCC/NOAA figures suggest that methane levels were rising by some 5 to 6 ppb annually, reaching 1814 ppb in 2013. While methane levels at lower altitudes have indeed shown little rise, much larger rises have been recorded at higher altitudes, as illustrated by the image below.

These high methane levels recorded at higher altitudes appear to be caused by the huge quantities of methane released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean during the period from end 2013 to early 2014. This methane has meanwhile risen to higher altitudes, while also descending to lower latitudes, wreaking havoc on weather patterns around latitude 60° North.

The releases of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean were caused by water that had warmed up strongly off the east coast of North America from June 2013. It took some months for this warm water to be carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean.

Meanwhile, very high sea surface temperatures are recorded in the Arctic Ocean, as above image shows, while warm water is carried into the Arctic Ocean by the Gulf Stream, as illustrated by the image below.

As said, the situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan blog.

Post by Sam Carana.

Locating sources of the world's highest methane levels

Above image shows IASI methane readings end October 2013 on the Northern Hemisphere. Clearly, high methane levels are very prominent over the Arctic. Over this period, the following peak methane readings have been recorded:
- October 28 - 2369 ppb
- October 29 - 2303 ppb
- October 30 - 2480 ppb
- October 31 - 2332 ppb

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Above image shows methane readings of 1950 ppb and higher in yellow, but only on October 31, 2013, pm.

This image is easier to analyze, since there are only a few areas where high methane readings show up, such as:

• The Gobi Desert, on the border of China and Mongolia. This is an area of concern, as discussed in the post Is Global Warming breaking up the Integrity of the Permafrost?

• Areas along the bounderies of the Okhotsk Plate; seismic activity appears to be contributing to methane releases here, as earlier discussed in the post Earthquake hits waters off Japan. Zoom in at methanetracker.org for details on earthquakes. 

• Last but not least, there's a huge area with high methane readings over the Arctic Ocean.

The image below again shows methane readings of 1950 ppb and higher in yellow on October 31, 2013, pm, but this time only for 3 altitudes, i.e. 451 mb, 469 mb and 487 mb. These levels were selected for their proximity to the altitude of 469 mb, where typically the highest mean global methane levels are recorded, i.e. from 1809 ppb to 1812 ppb for the period from October 28 to 31, 2013. Not surprisingly, the image below looks much the same as above image.

Things look rather different, though, when 3 altitudes are selected closer to sea level. The image below again shows methane readings of 1950 ppb and higher in yellow on October 31, 2013, pm, but this time only at 718 mb, 742 mb and 766 mb. These altitudes showed the highest methane readings that day, of 2322 ppb, 2332 ppb and 2316 ppb, respectively.

Ominously, high methane readings at these lower altitudes show up mostly in the Laptev Sea. In conclusion, some of the world's highest methane levels show up over the Laptev Sea, a huge area most prone to abrupt release of huge amounts of methane from the seabed.

This is further evidence in support of the looming threat of Abrupt Climate Change leading to extinction of many if not all species (i.e. including humans) within decades. It disproves the efforts of the IPCC, as discussed in the post Just do NOT tell them the monster exists, and further organizations to downplay the threat by spreading myths.

Methane levels keep rising rapidly

Global methane levels keep rising rapidly. Earlier this month, the post Methane as high as 2303 ppb quickly became outdated and was updated with the post Methane as high as 2349 ppb. Meanwhile, though, the most recent data show that the highest level reached on August 5, 2013, was 2442 ppb.

This recent peak level is only slightly below the highest peak level this year, which was a level of 2475 ppb reached on April 26, 2013, which at the time was considered a one-off local peak.

These recent high peak levels do seem to be more than just local peaks, given that high levels of methane are suddenly recorded over much of the globe, as described in the earlier post Methane as high as 2349 ppb.

The image on the right (added later, editor) also shows that not only have peak levels greater than 2300 ppb appeared since late June 2013, but also have the highest daily mean methane levels suddenly increased by about 20 ppb recently.

The image below shows over how many square kilometers methane was present at over 1950 ppb globally over the past few days.

The numbers also feature in the image on the left and they illustrate the huge jump that took place somewhere between July 31 and August 1, 2013.

It may be that there has indeed been a huge sudden increase in methane.

On the other hand, it could also be that EuMetSat implemented a re-calibration on July 31. After all, EuMetSat announced recently that IASI Level 2 products from Metop-B had been declared operational and would be available on GTS from 31 July.

Such a re-calibration (if it did indeed take place) does appear to make sense, given the discrepancy between IASI's mean methane levels and the levels recorded at stations. Below are measurements taken at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, which given the station's location close to the equator are often taken as global averages (flasks on the left, and hourly average in situ measurements on the right).

[ click on image to enlarge ]
from: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/index.php

Mauna Loa methane levels are often quoted to be about 1830 ppb, whereas the highest IASI mean levels did barely cross the 1800 ppb mark earlier this year. Since the jump, the highest IASI mean levels have suddenly been significantly higher (20 ppb more, at around 1820 ppb).

Even so, the current situation is very worrying. High levels of methane are present not only on the Northern Hemisphere, but also on Antarctica and over the oceans on the Southern Hemisphere, as shown in a recent post. And of course, the situation remains most threatening in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), as described at the Methane-hydrates blog and and at Arctic Methane FAQ.