Greenhouse gas rising

Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska Greenhouse gas concentrations recorded at Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, are very high and rising. Below is a compilation of four images adapted from images issued by NOAA on January 19, 2026. The images show carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) concentrations recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.

Mauna Loa, Hawaii

Below is a compilation of four images adapted from images issued by NOAA on January 19, 2026. The images show carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) concentrations recorded at the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO), a NOAA station at Hawaii, at 19.54° N latitude.

Earth Energy Imbalance

Rising greenhouse gas concentrations alone do not sufficiently convey how dangerous the situation is. As illustrated by the image below, the Earth Energy Imbalance has risen strongly over the years. The image, by Eliot Jacobson, shows the net difference between incoming solar energy and heat radiated out by the planet through October 2025.  

The rise in the Earth Energy Imbalance is caused by - among other things - a rise in the heat trapped by high (and rising) greenhouse gas concentrations and a decline in the Earth albedo (reflectivity).

Earth Albedo

The image below, by Eliot Jacobson, shows the 36-month running average for the Earth's albedo through November 2025, when albedo was 28.682%, a fall of 0.65% from 2003. According to a 2005 NASA article, a 1% fall in Earth’s albedo would have a climate effect of 1.7 W m⁻², roughly equal to the climate effect of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at the time (1.66 W m⁻²).

Decline in the Earth albedo is caused by - among other things - decline of sea ice.  

Sea ice decline

The combination image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness and concentration by the University of Bremen (left and center) and concentration by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (right) on January 18, 2026. The NSIDC image also shows the median Antarctic sea ice edge 1981-2010 highlighted in orange.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Decline of Antarctic sea ice and of the snow and ice cover over Antarctica contributes to elevation of the global temperature that can be expected to persist at least through September 2026, when Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent and area.

Arctic sea ice decline is illustrated by the image below. Arctic sea ice extent was 1.37 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on January 18, 2026, the lowest extent on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.10σ.

The above image highlights Arctic sea ice extent anomalies through January 18, 2026. The year 2026 is highlighted in black. Furthermore, the year 2025 is highlighted by a darker color and the year 2012 is highlighted in blue; Arctic sea ice area reached a record low in 2012. 

Arctic sea ice has also become very thin. Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, it has been at a record daily low for well over a year. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through January 19, 2026.

This means that less of the heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean can get consumed in the process of melting the sea ice and more of the heat will instead elevate the temperature of the water of the Arctic ocean, threatening to destabilize sediments that contain methane and to cause eruption of huge amounts of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

Further Feedbacks

[ from earlier post ]

Snow and ice cover decline is one of many feedbacks of the temperature rise. Further feedbacks include a rise in water vapor in the atmosphere, a decline in the reflectivity of lower clouds and a decline of the capacity of oceans and land to take up carbon dioxide and heat. 

The image on the right illustrates how the temperature rise can cause oceans to take up less heat, resulting in more heat remaining in the atmosphere. In addition to these feedbacks, more fuel getting burned, reductions in the aerosol masking effect and an emerging El Niño can further elevate temperatures dramatically in 2026. 

Failure to warn, failure to act

The science community, the IPCC, the UN, politicians and national governments have all failed to convey the seriousness of the threat of rising temperatures. That conclusion seems obvious, yet they keep refusing to call for, let alone to take appropriate action. There are some notable exceptions, but the sad conclusion is that in general they have failed and - even worse - they refuse to admit their failure.

UN secretary-general António Guterres has pointed at the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, referring to an international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

Yet, the very approach of leaving it up to the UN to "identify and resolve" problems by negotiating international consensus on carbon budgets, net-zero targets and offsets is a delusion. It's a diversion fabricated and advocated by polluters to delay climate action and to enable those very polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. Instead, Arctic-news has for many years identified the problems and has pointed out how to improve the situation. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• The threat of seafloor methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-threat-of-seafloor-methane-eruptions.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, Data Visualisation, flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Endangerment Finding in danger?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/04/endangerment-finding-in-danger.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Politicians for sale

Are politicians for sale? 

How can it be measured whether politicians are for sale and to what extent this occurs? 

One measure of how much looters and polluters are buying politicians could be this: How fast is methane accelerating? 

Rise in methane and rise in temperature

The rise in methane is vitally important, given methane's potential to rapidly push up temperatures. 

Arguably the most important metric related to climate change is surface temperature on land, as illustrated by the image below from an earlier post. The image was created with a July 16, 2022 screenshot from NASA customized analysis plots and shows that the February 2016 (land only) anomaly from 1886-1915 was 2.94°C or 5.292°F.

Extinction

Land-only anomalies are important. After all, most people live on land, where temperatures are rising even faster than they are rising globally, and humans will likely go extinct with a rise of 3°C above pre-industrial, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis in earlier post.

Note that in the above plot, anomalies are measured versus 1886-1915, which isn't pre-industrial. The image raises questions as to what the temperature rise would look like when using a much earlier base, and how much temperatures could rise over the next few years.

What can be done about it?

The next question is: What can be done about it? To avoid politicians getting bought by looters and polluters, action on climate change is best implemented locally, with Local People's Courts ensuring that implementation is science-based.

Conclusions

The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan and posts at Arctic-news.blogspot.com

Links

• Human Extinction by 2025? 

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html

• NASA customized analysis plots 

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• When will we die? 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Pre-industrial 

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

Nature Bats Last Show, October 6, 2020

Talk between Sam Carana (SC), Guy McPherson (GM), Kevin Hester (KH) and Pauline Schneider (PS) for Nature Bats Last Show, October 6, 2020. 

GM: We are delighted to have the inimitable Sam Carana on today’s show. We submitted written questions to Carana and went back-and-forth a couple times to pursue follow-up questions. Our frequent guest, Pauline Schneider, will be supplying the voice of Dr. Carana. You can find Carana’s blog at Arctic hyphen news dot blogspot dot com. Dr. Carana posts anonymously about abrupt, irreversible climate change. To preserve her anonymity, we will refer to her as female, Sam, and Dr. Carana. A caveat is in order: In doing so, we are acknowledging our respect for Carana’s work, and we are not indicating Carana’s credentials or gender. Dr. Carana, welcome to Nature Bats Last on the Progressive Radio Network.

1. GM: How long have you been disseminating information about abrupt climate change to the public under the Sam Carana moniker? 

1. SC: I've been worried about abrupt global warming for a long time and as time went by, I only became more worried about it. I was stunned to see that, when Hurricane Katrina hit the U.S. in 2005, little action followed on climate change. 

If I had to pick a year when I became particularly active on abrupt climate change, it would be 2007. I wrote a post in early 2007 with the title ‘ten dangers of global warming’. I mentioned tipping points and the possibility that global warming could drive humans into extinction, in particular as more animals and plants that humans depend on would disappear.

In 2007, I also wrote ‘Ten recommendations to deal with global warming’. I started more blogs and groups that year, partly as an inventory and partly as a way to encourage discussion. In 2007, I also started to recommend local feebates as the best way to make a difference. 

In September 2007, I was shocked to see Arctic sea ice fall to a record low. At that time, I was also looking at how much methane there is in the Arctic Ocean. In those days, few people were worried about loss of Arctic sea ice, let alone that they were worried about eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean or that they were making links between the two. 

Arctic-news.blogspot.com

GM: And I should point out that that 2007 datepoint, at the time the lowest ice cover recorded, was the last datapoint Maslowski and colleagues used in their 2012 paper in Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, and they used a linear projection, based on that information of relatively few datapoints, so that that 2007 point dragged the rest down and lead to an incorrect, too-soon projection of 2016 (± 3 years) for an ice-free Arctic. But I don't think they missed it by too much, btw. 

From early presentation by Dr. Maslowski (Red and blue dashed lines show linear trends for 1996–2007)

2. GM: Why do you do provide this information anyway?

2. SC: How could I not want to share this? It's the most important issue we're all facing and it’s getting very little attention, which makes it self-obvious for me to present the information in the way I do, quickly, concisely, and with links that point at sources, and without diversions and without distractions. 

That’s also why I share information on a free blog, without asking fees and without advertising. If you care about the message, then you want people to hear about it, so you don’t need to get paid to share the message, and you want to reach people without hurdles or diversions. 

This is something that affects everyone, so the reasons to share it are contained in the message. I feel compelled to share what worries me, after all, it’s the most important message ever posted and there is so much urgency to act on the unfolding catastrophe which could soon leave us no time or room to act at all.

from earlier post

3. GM: OK, fair enough, but why do you provide this information anonymously?

3. SC: If anonymous means that no author name is added, then I am doing the opposite. I actually do like to add the name Sam Carana when I create content, and I also like to add links to sources. That makes it easy to find things back, to see in what context they were used, etc. 

But I understand what you mean, I don’t like to add further details, because I want people to focus on the message, rather than on the person who happens to be carrying the message. Adding personal details can result in diversions that can in turn delay the necessary action.

Also, I do welcome discussion. When I post on facebook, people can easily comment and make suggestions, and this can lead to changes in the content that can be made quickly, often instantly. Communication can be quick and direct, I mean it’s easy to take part in discussions on facebook, there’s no need to go through bureaucratic processes or to be wealthy or to be part of an elite or a privileged group, so that makes it more democratic. 

4. GM: Before we recorded this interview, a coupe or three weeks ago, we put out a request to the Nature Bats Last group on facebook, and Joey Casey submtted this question from that group:

4. Joey Casey (from the Nature Bats Last group at facebook): Will oceans evaporate? What sort of state do you see Earth becoming in the long term?

4. SC: That's the threat if things keep going as they are now, Earth will become similar to Venus. See the image below, from an earlier post. 

from earlier post

GM: Well,that's kind of a bummer. 

5. GM: You rarely submit to interviews. Why did you agree to join us in this on-air conversation?

5. PS: Just a note, these questions were sent to Sam previously, this is Pauline speaking now, now I'm reverting back to Sam. 

5. SC: Just like you, I like to look at the bigger picture. Our conclusions are based on scientific findings and we clearly reference those findings and add links to original sources. And we both have to conclude that there are huge threats; threats of such a magnitude, severity and imminence that they make me think: "This should be frontpage news every day!"

Yet, what happens is this: Events are downplayed in the media or they get little or no attention at all. This has now been going on for well over a decade, even as the problems are escalating before our very own eyes. We're all demanding honesty on issues of this importance. 

So, it feels good to be among people who do see the importance of such issues and events, and who are familiar enough with them, as well as with my posts, to seriously discuss things and comment on my work, so I have been looking forward to this conversation.

from earlier post

6. KH: Now we'll start with some of my questions I had to Sam. 

6. KH: Have you noticed any evidence of climate-change research data being tampered with?

6. SC: Not so much tampering with data, but what I see a lot is misrepresentation of the data, downplaying of the implications or simply ignoring things altogether. Most people will never look into the data, many only read headlines of news reports, or not even that. 

Politicians have also blocked a lot of research that could have provided precious data that we now lack. This has contributed to the dire situation we’re in now, and there still are few data on, say, methane releases in the Arctic. What is also lacking is research into possible action to improve the situation. I have long suggested that politicians who inadequately act on the unfolding climate catastrophe should be brought before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands. 

from earlier post

7. KH: As we watch the collapse of the Arctic Sea Ice and the meandering jet streams how concerned are you about further disruption to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)? 

from earlier post

7. SC: One of the biggest dangers I see is that a cool freshwater lid is growing on top of the surface of the North atlantic, near the Arctic Ocean, and that this is sealing off hot water underneath the sea surface from the atmosphere. 

Slowing down of AMOC will result in an increasing amount of hot water accumulating underneath the surface. 

As storms grow stronger, chances increase that a sudden inflow of hot salty water will enter the Arctic Ocean and reach sediments at the seafloor that contain huge amounts of methane. 

8. KH: Recently there has been a concerted attack on the seminal work of Professor Peter Wadhams, especially on the subject of the ‘Methane Bomb Hypothesis’, do you have any doubt that it is a real threat?

8. SC: Politicians and news media are often ignoring the temperature rise, or downplaying the dangers. Instead, the precautionary principle should be applied, and this should be applied on three dimensions to issues such as methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

The first dimension is a matter of magnitude and severity. A vast amount of methane is held in sediments. If just a tiny part of this methane will erupt, this could wipe out humanity, if not make all life on Earth go extinct, due to the huge immediate global warming potential of methane, and due to the numerous feedbacks. 

The second dimension is probability. Methane hydrates destabilize as temperature rises. So, as temperatures continue to rise, the likelihood grows that such eruptions of methane will occur. 

The third dimension is imminence. The longer we wait, the more urgent the threat becomes, as the temperature rise doesn't wait for us.

from earlier post

9. GM: I want to back up just a little bit and have the three of us discuss, and I'm sorry that Sam isn't here to contribute further to the conversation, but that's the nature of the beast when we have a recorded show and he's submitting written responses. Sam indicated there's "not so much tampering of data, but misrepresentation of the data, downplaying of the implications or simply ignoring things altogether." Kevin, I think you had something specific and important in mind when you asked that question. Can you follow up? 

KH: We're at the mercy of the same corporations and institutions that are collecting the data as to what they're going to give us. As the situation becomes more dire and more tenuous, I think we need to question all of that information more and more. I'll give you one example. In 2012, Nick Breeze interviewed Dr. Natalia Shakhova and she and her partner Dr. Igor Semilitov, two of the most experienced Arctic researchers that I know of, including Peter Wadhams and Jason Box. In that interview, she teared up as she was telling us about the existential danger that the methane hydrates threat poses, this extraordinarily experienced scientist teared up and that reflected how dangerous she thought the situation was then, 8 years ago, and since then, it went public, it went viral to a degree as well, Dr. Shakhova has really sit back, she doesn't do any interviews, her research papers, when they do come out, it's under Dr. Semilitov's name, I just think she backed out completely because of that. We saw a similar thing happen with Jason Box, who put out a tweet one time, saying "if the methane was released from the Arctic, we're f*cked". And since then, he has completely backed up. 

GM: In fact, Jason Box said: "If even a small fraction of the Arctic sea floor carbon is released to the atmosphere, we're f'd." So, it's even more dire than you just indicated, and you're absolutely right, since then he's been backpedaling as if he was looking over a cliff. 

KH: I think in a lot of ways, you come into, what's happened to you personally, comes into the equation for all the other scientists, you put your head above the parakeets and see, you're in major trouble, and all you got is shit and abuse and attacks, which is exactly how this patriarchy works, if the patriarchy doesn't agree with what you're saying, it smashes you, because it's trying to keep itself alive as long as it can, like a leech living off a dependent organism, so what I think is that what happened to you is making a lot of scientists more circumspect about delivering their message. 

GM: Right, and we mentioned Dr. Natalia Shakhova earlier, and she mentioned the possibility of a 50 Gt burst of methane being highly likely for abrupt release at any time. And a year or two later, when I asked her about it, she said she'd never said it. Well, you can find the abstract still, for the European Geosciences Union Assembly 2008, when she said that. The abstract is still there. She clearly indicated that such an event was highly likely for abrupt release at any time. 

PS: This is Pauline speaking, I think she did that deliberately. I think she would have said 'we were mistaken', if she wanted people to stop looking, but I think she was basically saying 'I'm being told to lie, you can find the information on your own, it's there'. Russians have learned, for many decades, to read between the lines, Americans still don't know how to do that. I don't know about the rest of the European countries, but Russians know how to read between the lines and she was trying to teach us how to do that. 

KH: Yeah, I think that's a very important observation. I'll just make one point that I heard Peter Wadhams say, in an interview at Environmental Coffeehouse. When the subject of the 50 Gt methane release came up, he said 'Hundreds of gigatonnes, he thinks it's a lot more'. 

GM: And he points that out on a youtube channel that gets very little attention, and as a consequence, he doesn't get a lot of negative attention for making statements such as that. Not that in my mind he should be particularly concerned, what has he got to lose? 

KH: He doesn't get a lot of negative attention, that changed recently, by a cowboy outlet called Scientists Warning who had some adolescents who weren't scientists, who were just researchers like me, but adolescent ones, and they completely attacked the methane hypothesis. There's huge amounts of peer-reviewed data that tell us that it exists. So, I think there is a concerted campaign and it will get worse. Every single anomaly is getting worse, so the attacks will get worse as well. 

GM: Right, I think we're taking time away from the original topic, but I can't let this go. If Scientists Warning is not a deep-state operation, then I can't imagine what it is, because every time I receive an email from Mark Austin, who claims to be, and almost certainly is, a NSA-contracted spy, every time I receive an email message from him, the first person who received the email message is Stuart Scott, always, every single time, it doesn't matter what the subject matter is. And Stuart Scott is part of the group that is doing hit pieces on me. He asked me to submit to an interview with him, so I did an audio interview that lasted several hours, and he cut it down to two short pieces, extracting only pieces that made it look as if I was in agreement with him or that I didn't look particularly intelligent. I asked him about it later and he ran screaming from the room,which was no particular surprise. Anyway, I think that's very disappointing on the part of Scientists Warning. 

KH: The situation is incredibly dire. It can only be that they will try and manipulate every situation that they can. The last two world wars were started with false flags. So, of course, psy-ops will be used to try and control the scenario-narrative. I think the control of Extinction Rebellion, that emanated from the U.K., is really quite possibly a division of that, and I'm not attacking the people who are out on the streets trying to do anything, but what I want to attack is the modus operandi, and that is that they're trying to say to people if we're just going to protest in a slightly different way, it will make it different. Excuse me, these people are in the car driven by Thelma and Louise, after it went off the cliff. 

GM: And not only that,the first demand they make, Extinction Rebellion, is complete honesty by the government. Oh yeah, that's going to happen! When has any government been honest, about almost anything? I can't imagine that your first demand, and they're counting on that, it's insane! 

PS: Pauline here again. I think that what the deepstate does, or the governments of the world do, is they find these small grassroots groups that seem to have some promise and that are going in the direction that they want them to go into, and then they support them, or steer them, in the direction that they want them to go into. And if they start veering off, then they cut them off. For instance, if you start looking at all the little groups, the ones that ended up successful are the ones that are ridiculous. The ones that failed are the ones that were on the right track. I'm talking about Occupy Wall Street, it was making a difference, it was actually teaching people how to work laterally, rather than this normal hierarchical pyramid that we're used to, as if we have to have a daddy at the top, telling us what to do, we need daddy to protect us, to take care of us. That's garbage! Every anarchist, every agricultural anarchist for millenia knows that's garbage. We know it's garbage, we don't need a daddy to tell us the right from wrong. As a group of people who care about each other, we know how to take care of each other. The corporations don't want us to do that, because they want to monetize all of that. 

10. GM: OK, I'm going to ask the final question to our guest, Sam Carana, and Pauline, you can give a lengthy response, and I think that will open up some more doors for the three of us to discuss. 

10. FINAL QUESTION, GM: How would you like to see humanity respond to the predicament of abrupt, irreversible climate change? 

10. SC: I like everyone to take a good look at how dire the situation is, and to act with integrity and compassion. The Climate Plan that I recommend focuses on government action and prefers implementation through local feebates. Here are the Ten Principles behind the Climate Plan: 

1. The precautionary principle, which should be applied broadly and on three dimensions, as I pointed out before. So, regarding severity, probability and imminence. This should lead to action, not inaction, and such action should aim to reduce the dangers.
2. Relevance. The media often ignore climate change and seek to divert attention to trivial matters. In my posts, I deliberately point at issues that are often overlooked or downplayed, yet that can be extremely relevant in regard to climate change, especially from the perspective of the precautionary principle. In posts, I typically conclude that the situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action. 
3. Science. Where there is doubt, science-based analysis should be undertaken, and this should include more scientific research where needed. Research should be relevant and to the point, it should continue on an ongoing basis, and it should incorporate the importance of the precautionary principle. Where more scientific research is needed, this should not be interpreted as a reason to delay action, as that would violate the precautionary principle. 
4. Healthcare workers typically pledge to “do no harm”. Politicians at the Paris Agreement also pledged to avoid harm. Again, this principle should not be interpreted as a reason to remain passive and to delay action. The precautionary principle makes it imperative for action to be taken, so I like to go one step further and interpret this principle as ‘Health is good!’ 
5. Global agreement, local implementation. It’s great to have global agreement, but implementation can best take place locally. Each community should reach each of their targets independently and genuinely (i.e. without buying or fabricating offsets or credits domestically or abroad). If not, action from government in the respective area and beyond should follow. 
6. Democracy. Each individual should take responsibility, and be given that responsibility. This means people need to be well-informed and made conscious of their responsibility. Where people still don’t bother to act responsibly, local feebates can help everyone becoming effective in combating climate change. 
7. Open information. Share information to enable people to make decisions. I like to make people think. I welcome discussion. Unlike politicians who take decisions out of the hands of people, I like people to decide for themselves and I like that to be a well-informed and thought-through decision. 
8. Money should not overrule our lives. We should not trade away our principles. Feebates do not necessarily have to be financial. For example, if a local council adds extra fees to rates for land where soil carbon falls, while using all the revenues for rebates on rates for land where soil carbon rises, then biochar effectively becomes the currency that can help improve the soil's fertility, its ability to retain water and to support more vegetation. That way, real assets are built.
9. The pre-eminence of principle. While it would be nice if there will be a good outcome, we should base our actions on principle. We should act because it is the right thing to do. 
10. Open mind. Be prepared for the unexpected. Be prepared to change your mind, if needed. Keep discussing and reconsidering these principles. I’ve learned that there still is a lot to be learned and discovered.

The Precautionary Principle illustrated by the image below. 

from earlier post

KH: What the Climate Plan shows is how compassionate, emphatic and considerate Sam Carana is, and how sane. The Climate Plan is the sort of thing you would use or impose in a sane society. But this society isn't sane, this culture isn't sane. I like to quote Jiddu Krishnamurti. "It is no sign of good health to be well-adjusted to a sick society." This sums up how we got into the situation we're in. It is the profoundly sick culture that is imposed on most of the people in the world and all of the other organisms, fauna and flora. So, it should be no surprise to us that we ended up where we are, when you consider the pathology that runs the economic system of the planet. 

GM: Right, now that you said it, I think the correct quote goes like this: "It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a profoundly sick society." In any event, that's exactly where we are. This is a profoundly sick society. The links between governments and corporations have been clearly illustrated for more than a hundred years. The existence of a shadowy group of characters in the United States and probably beyond and their influence on governmental decisions has been described for more than fifty years by reliable sources and all of this indicates that we do not have an emphatic, compassionate group of people who are making significant decisions. So, that's my biggest issue with the Climate Plan. On the surface, these ten steps make perfect sense. But we don't have a society that would allow for implementation of such a plan. I don't know how long Sam has been proposing the Climate Plan, but it's been a while, it's been long enough that the occasional billionaire knows about it, in fact, they probably all know about it, because this is how they make a whole lot of their billions, it's through knowledge. So, surely a bunch of people like Bezos and Buffet and Gates know about the Climate Plan, and they choose to put their money elsewhere, probably because they know that the Climate Plan cannot possibly be implemented and also allow them to retain their enormous privilege. 

KH: I think the responses from the billionaires on the planet to the crisis is indicative of how bad it is. We're talking about going to another uninhabitable planet. It's insane. These people collectively have trillions of dollars. If money could fix this predicament, there actually is enough money, they could all tip in, whatever it took, if money could do it, but that ship sailed many, many years ago. 

GM: And not only that, these are the folks who will have the ear of the government. If it just meant creating money, which is what we do every day, out of thin air, then we would create the money for it, wouldn't we? So, I don't think this is a monetary issue at all, I think this is an ethical issue, a profoundly ethical issue that - as a consequence - this society will not address, because this society is overwhelmingly controlled by sociopaths and psychopaths

KH: Yes, it's a mental health issue. These people are very ill, they're very unwell, they are pathologically unwell, and they have their hands on the steering wheel, the accelerator and the digimeter button. Another thing about the Climate Plan is looking after each other. This is what we've been advocating the whole time that we've been along this journey, these are the good old days, they are going away rapidly. 

GM: Absolutely. Sam makes a statement about health care workers typically pledging to do no harm and politicians at the Paris Agreement also pledged to avoid harm. I was sent a paper today, and I immediately threw it in the garbage, the email garbage, never to be seen again, because the paper in the peer-reviewed literature was indicating that, if the global temperature rises from 1C to 1.5C above the 1750 baseline, then we are going to be in trouble, as if that hasn't already happened, many years ago. Here again is the complete disconnect between the compassion shown by the Climate Plan of Sam Carana and the reality of what's happening out there in the world. 

PS: . . sponsored by the world governments!

KH: Another thing that the discussion we just had brings up is that the peer-reviewed literature is ignoring the inertia in the climate system. There is a massive lag between the emissions that are in the atmosphere and where we are today. Talking about 1.5C is complete bullshit, because if you go back to 1750 we're already there. Also, there's been a lot of anthropogenic warming before that. Just look at agriculture and civilization, and burning of things, there's a lot of things that are ignored. This just goes to show how institutionalized the peer-reviewed system is. 

GM: Right, absolutely! Ok, I want to take just another quick look or two at a the Climate Plan. Item 6, democracy. "Each individual should take responsibility, and be given that responsibility. This means people need to be well-informed and made conscious of their responsibility." Pauline, would you care to comment on the notion of democracy and when it was birthed, how long it lasted and how important it was at its time. 

PS: So, we all know that Greece is famous for being the cradle of democracy, but I think few people realize that it didn't last very long there. It lasted maybe ten years. The idea of democracy is different . . 

GM: In theory, there is no difference between a theory and practice, but in practice there is. 

PS: So, in theory democracy was a wonderful idea, and I think it worked for a little bit, but you know humans are like cats and it's like herding cats, and I do appreciate this, because actually what she [Sam] meant to write is anarchy. In anarchy, each person, each individual does accept responsibility, not only for themselves, but also for the people around them, that's what anarchy is. Democracy is everyone gets a voice and we just throw it all in the kitty, you can do the maths, we see it in this country every day. We have a mess of voices and nobody cares about other people, it's all about me, me, me. But she's actually talking about true anarchy, which is people being together responsibly, educated in the fact. 

GM: Edward Abbey wrote frequently about the correspondence between anarchism and democracy, he basically said they are the same thing. Do we need more democracy? You bet your sweet betsy. Through anarchism. 

KH: The word democracy is very old, but the version that we have now, this contemporary version, has been bastardized by the monetary system and the corporations. When I hear the word democracy now, it makes me puke, because look at the democracy that you have in the United States, that's the very best democracy that money can buy, and if you've got the money, you own it. 

GM: Or, as Paul and Anne Ehrlich wrote in their book One with Nineveh, many years ago, what we have in this country is socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor, because under capitalism, the poor don't make out very well, never have. So, we socialize any corporation that might come close to failing, that's owned by a 1%er, and that's a point of the videos we've been putting out most mornings lately, is that the links between governments and wealthy people and the corporations they own are solid. The links between the government and small business, owned by mum and pap on the corner, they aren't nearly so strong. It's a tragedy. 

KH: I'll give you an indication of how corrupt it has become in New Zealand. James Shaw is the co-leader of the Green Party in New Zealand. Their policy on their website is that they're opposed to private schooling. Just recently, he signed off on a gift of $12 million to one private school in New Zealand. The leader of the Green Party of New Zealand is an economist. Most people know about a guy called William Nordhaus, who is an economist, who set the 2C Rubicon that we shouldn't cross. It had no basis in science. Zero. It was all based on what he thought that capitalism could get away with. He got a Nobel Prize for that. These are the pathological psychopaths who are making these decisions.

GM: And he made that statement in 1977. We've learned a little bit about climate change since 1977, and he was given the Nobel Prize last year, right. And in those ensuing years, we have actually learned quite a bit about climate change. 

KH: This is how Orwellian it has become, he got a Nobel Prize for guaranteeing the extinction of most, if not all complex life on this planet. And you have a President in your country that got a Nobel Peace Prize for dropping more bombs than anyone else before him. 

GM: To be fair, he got the Peace Prize before he dropped all these bombs.

KH: Yeah, that was the deal.

GM: Exactly. OK, I want to make a comment on item 7 of the Climate Plan. "Open information. Share information to enable people to make decisions. I like to make people think. I welcome discussion. Unlike politicians who take decisions out of the hands of people, I like people to decide for themselves and I like that to be a well-informed and well-thought-through decision." Well, he says it right there in item 7, I like to make people think. Unlike politicians who take decisions out of the hands of people. Governments don't like people to think, it's really bad for the government when people think, look at the American cultural revolution in the 1960s and 1970s. What was a serious threat to the continuation of 'life-as-normal' for the sociopaths, the millionaires - at the time, that was a lot of money - who are pulling the strings of empire in the United States. We can't have people thinking, that's the worst thing ever to happen to any oligarchy of a country. So, that's just not going to happen, Sam, I'm sorry, I appreciate these great ideas, but the implementation, I just do see it ever happening in this country or any country in the world, because governments throughout the world have pretty much revealed themselves to be all headed in the same direction, which is the direction that the really wealthy people want the country to go. 

KH: I like the expression that you used when we first met that we're all born into captivity. Just like most liing organisms on this planet are born into captivity. I read a report the other day that said that we've lost 68% of the wildlife on the planet in the last fifty years, and of course most of that would have been in the last ten of that fifty. 

GM: Right, and it's accelerating. As we've discussed many times, the exponential function is something difficult for us to wrap our minds around, for any of us, because we're not hard-wired that way, evolution by natural selection did not in any way set us up to deal with the exponential function, to understand it by any stretch of the imagination. 

PS: And it is ironic that, because of our innate nature to be altruistic, that we have allowed sociopaths to survive and to take over, because our altruistic nature always gives people the benefit of the doubt, and believes in the better angels, and unfortunately we have in the last six millenia changed everything, that doesn't work anymore for us. Once we industrialized, once we went into cities and created leaders, kings, priests,  gods, county commisioners . .

KH: I believe that capitalism is a vortex of sociopathy and psychpathy to the top. So, the longer it went on, of course, the more unwell and sick the leadership would be, and that's where we're at, you know, in New Zealand, the Green Party members in New Zealand voted an economist to be their co-leader, you know, it's like voting for thieves. 

GM: I guess the vote there for all of us is quick or painful. For death. Since we're voting for death. 

PS: I understand that, a lot of our conversations look at these ideas and suggestions about what we could do to save our but, and we're able to really critically think our way through them with actual analysis that shows that this is not going to happen, it hasn't happened in the last forty years that we have been asking for these things to happen, they haven't happened yet, Einstein reminded us that, if you keep repeatng the same thing and expect a different result, that is the definition of insanity. What could we do then? There are things we could do. Maybe not to save our buts, but to have a gentler landing, or crach, or fall, whartever you want to call it, off the edge. You know, every day we are dealing with people who are homeless or houseless, every day we are dealing with people who are suffering from terrible diseases that they didn't ask for, every day people are losing their families, they are losing their jobs, their homes, I feel like what we could ask our goverments to do is to address that, that would be a real thing they could do. Instead, in this country, people still have this idea that you can lift yourself up by your bootstraps, and we've known from history, anyone with any sociological background, knows that's not a real thing. Not even the billionaires, they didn't get there by their bootstraps, they got there on the back of people.  

GM: They make money the old-fashioned way, they inherit it. That's the way it works. And I like to spend a few minutes . . first of all, I want to make sure that we're done wrapping up the conversation for today, and then I like to talk a little bit about Ken Avidor, next month's guest, and put out a call to our listeners for a call for questions for an artist

See also: 

NBL Radio Pre-Recorded for 6 October 2020
https://guymcpherson.com/2020/10/nbl-radio-pre-recorded-for-6-october-2020

Q & A between Nature Bats Last and Sam Carana author at the Arctic News Blog - by Kevin Hester 
https://kevinhester.live/2020/10/07/q-a-between-nature-bats-last-and-sam-carana-author-at-the-arctic-news-blog

Nature Bats Last:Guest Sam Carana, October 6, 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSJkJPm5wOU

Climate Plan

What we're witnessing is more than a climate crisis, we're facing climate catastrophe and the outlook is grim. We're already in the Sixth Mass Extinction event and we're facing a potential global temperature rise of 18°C or 32.4°F by 2026. Merely declaring a climate emergency is not enough.

[ from earlier post ]

The Climate Plan advocates measures that can be taken in efforts to improve the situation regarding the climate, as well as regarding the health, prospects and wellbeing of people and life in general. These measures can and should be implemented immediately, in line with the current climate crisis.

Seventeen measures for immediate implementation

1. FOSSIL FUEL - Ban the use of coal and natural gas for heating, cooking and generating electricity. Stop supplying natural gas from utilities over pipelines. Ban sales of natural gas bottles. Use rationing of electricity supply from the grid to overcome bottlenecks in supply, until sufficient clean, renewable electricity can fully supply demand over the grid.

2. NUCLEAR POWER - Stop nuclear power plants from continuing to operate and start decommissioning existing plants. Study options for treating and storing waste from such plants.

3. WOOD AND BIOFUEL - Progressively ban the use of wood and other biomass for generating power, for driving vehicles or for other energy-related purposes. Impose fees on sales of biofuel, while using revenues to fund pyrolysis of biowaste and on return of the resulting biochar to the soil locally. Ban sales and installation of new woodburners. Ban sales or supply of firewood, woodchips, briquets, charcoal, etc. Impose annual fees through local rates on real estate that contain existing woodburners, open fireplaces, and traditional ovens and furnaces that use wood, while using revenues to fund rebates on local sales of clean electric alternatives such as heat pumps.

4. ROAD AND RAIL VEHICLES - Progressively electrify all trains and rail traffic, by imposing fees on trains that run on fossil fuel, while using revenues to fund conversion to or purchase of new electric trains. Progressively ban the use of vehicles with internal combustion in cities, first for one day in the week, then for two days a week, etc. Add fees to annual registration of vehicles with internal combustion engines, and use the revenues to fund rebates on registration of electric vehicles. Progressively close petrol stations and ban sales of products such as gas, diesel, petrol and further fossil fuel. Add fees to sales of fossil fuel and use revenues to fund rebates on clean public transport locally. Ensure there is public access to financial records. Set standards to reduce unnecessary vehicle noise, while ensuring sufficient sound is generated to warn people and wildlife.

5. AVIATION - Progressively ban aviation where flights are powered by jet fuel and other fossil fuel and biofuel. Impose fees on sales of such fuel and use revenues to fund rebates on electric airplanes that can take off and land on rooftops. Similarly, add fees to flights entering and leaving airports by airplanes using fossil fuel, while using revenues to fund electric airplanes that can take off and land on rooftops.

6. SHIPPING - Progressively prohibit use of bunker fuel and other fossil fuel in shipping. Impose fees on sales of bunker fuel, with revenues used to fund batteries and hydrogen fuel cells to replace traditional engines in ships. Impose fees on shipping of fossil fuel, with revenues used to clean up waterways and support wildlife conservation.

7. URBAN WASTE - Progressively make that zero % waste leaves each city through transport or through the sky, soil or waterways. Make that waste will be processed within each city, preferably pyrolyzed with biochar and nutrients returned to soils. Add sensors to rubbish bins and garbage collection trucks to ensure that no toxic products are disposed off, unless through collection points that ensure proper processing.

8. PLASTIC - Ensure that no plastic (or plastic parts) will be sold without permit and without fees high enough to ensure return of such items to approved collection points for safe disposal and processing. Ban single-use plastic, such as for packaging, containers, bags, etc.

9. DIET - Progressively ban sales of livestock products, unless supplied for medical purposes if no alternatives are available. Add fees to sales of livestock products, with revenues used to fund rebates on soil and water supplements that contain biochar and olivine sand in rural areas. In coastal areas, use revenues to assist enhanced weathering in waterways. Stop using antibiotics and hormones to stimulate growth in animals. Stop using crop to feed animals, unless for sales of petfood to pets held with a permit. Add fees on sales of products that have carbon dioxide, sugar, salt, flavors or coloring added, with revenues used to promote vegan-organic diet.

10. AGRICULTURE - Add fees on sales of nitrogen fertilizers and use revenues to fund rebates on biochar and enhanced weathering in oceans.

11. WILDLIFE CONSERVATION - Ban chemical pesticides. Remove walls and fences that stop wildlife. Provide ways for wildlife to cross roads and highways. Set aside progressively increasing areas where no urban, agricultural, industrial development is allowed. Move existing buildings, agriculture and industries from such areas. Fund progress through annual fees imposed on real estate in areas zones for industrial, urban and agricultural development.

12. CONSTRUCTION - Add fees on sales of Portland cement, with revenues used to fund carbon-negative construction material used locally. Fees must be high enough to progressively phase out use of Portland cement.

13. AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY - Prohibit dumping of agricultural and other waste in landfalls, prohibit burning of waste in open fires. Prohibit cutting down large trees without permits. Where permits are supplied, add fees to minimize deforestation, while using revenues to support reforestation and afforestation. Ensure that biowaste gets pyrolyzed, with the biochar returned to the soil locally. Add fees on local rates where soil loses carbon content, with revenues used to fund rebates where soil carbon content increases, such as when biochar and olivine sand are added or when new trees are planted.

14. COOLING - Ban sales of new air-conditioners, fridges and freezers that work with gases. Impose annually rising fees on existing items, while using the revenues from the annual fees to fund rebates on solid state products, including heat pumps.

15. INDUSTRY - Progressively ban the use of fossil fuel in industrial processes by replacing them with clean electricity (i.e. generated by wind turbines or solar panels), or with hydrogen made with such clean electricity. Ban the use of solvents, cleaning substances, propellants and other products that result in further addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Ensure that manufacturers label products indicating the heating impact.

16. UNIVERSITIES - Encourage further study in the effectiveness of measures in all above areas. Compare what happens locally with what in other areas, to ensure the most effective policy tools are used locally to facilitate the necessary transitions. Government grants are to be given to studies that sufficiently care about above points.

17. FURTHER ACTION - Further lines of action will be needed to hold back the temperature rise. Some action requires further research and U.N. supervision. Some other action has low risk and, due to the urgency to keep temperatures down, testing and R&D should commence immediately. This applies in particular to ways to reduce overheating of the Arctic.

Examples of such measures are Marine Cloud Brightening off the east coast of North America, in efforts to cool the waters entering the Arctic Ocean. Proposals that need further study are the use of icebreakers during the northern Fall and Winter, to enable more heat to escape from the Arctic Ocean, thus reducing the risk of ocean heat destabilizing methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. That risk is high from late September when the sea ice starts closing off the Arctic Ocean, thus making it difficult for ocean heat to escape, while warm water is still being carried into the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean. Denis Bonnelle has proposed to use icebreakers that travel in parallel and are interconnected to also clear the ice in between them.

While implementation of some of these lines of action requires U.N. supervision, much of the proposed action can readily be implemented locally without delay and the Climate Plan prefers speedy local implementation, with communities deciding what works best locally, provided that a community does take sufficient action to achieve the necessary dramatic reductions in each type of pollution, in line with the Paris Agreement to avoid a large temperature rise. Examples of implementation of some of these lines of action are depicted in the image below, showing examples of how progress can be achieved through local feebates.

[ from earlier post ]

The overview below also includes further possible action that could be considered. Importantly, the situation is that dire that even if all possible action as described is taken, this constitutes no guarantee that any humans will survive the coming decades.

The image below depicts how the above-mentioned measures line up in response to the threat.

In conclusion, the technologies and policy instruments are ready for implementation, so let's stop delaying what's needed so desperately, now is the time for comprehensive and effective action!

Rapid Transition to a Clean World

100% clean and renewable wind, water, and solar (WWS)

all-sector energy roadmaps for 139 countries of the world

[ click here for explanatory video of above image ]

Above image is from an excellent study by Jacobson et al., showing that it is technically feasible and economically attractive to shift to clean energy facilities between now and 2050. This will create net jobs worldwide. It will avoid millions of air-pollution mortalities and avoid trillions of dollars in pollution and global warming damage. It will stabilize energy prices and reduce energy poverty. It will make countries energy independent and reduce international conflict over energy. It will reduce risks of large-scale system disruptions by significantly decentralizing power production.

Mark Jacobson: A 100 percent Renewable Economy

Given that there are so many benefits and there are no technical and economic barriers to complete a 100% shift by the year 2050 (and 80% by 2030), why not make an even faster transition?

Sam Carana suggests that feebates, especially when implemented locally, can best facilitate the necessary shift. Moreover, when energy feebates are implemented jointly with feebates in further areas, greenhouse gas emissions could be cut by 80% by 2020, while soils, atmosphere and oceans could be restored to their pre-industrial status over the course of the century.

[ the above emission cuts and feebates images were used in a meanwhile dated 2011 post ]

To achieve the most effective and rapid shift, Sam Carana recommends implementing two types of feebates, i.e. energy feebates and further feebates such as fees on sales of livestock products while using the revenues to fund rebates on soil supplements containing biochar.

Sam Carana adds that further lines of action will be needed to prevent Earth from overheating, warning that comprehensive and effective action is needed as described in the Climate Plan.

The image below shows that a shift to 100% clean (WWS) energy by 2050 (80% by 2030) could reduce CO2 to ~350 ppmv by 2100.

[ from Jacobson et al. 2015 ]

Energy feebates are the most effective way to speed up the shift to clean energy. Further feebates could make additional cuts in greenhouse gases emissions, while also removing carbon from the atmosphere and oceans, allowing us to aim for bringing down carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere to 280 ppmv by the year 2100.

Links

- How Renewable Energy Could Make Climate Treaties Moot (2015)

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-renewable-energy-could-make-climate-treaties-moot/

- 100% Wind, Water, and Solar (WWS) All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for Countries and States

http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html

- The Solutions Project - 100% Renewable Energy
thesolutionsproject.org

- Feebates
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feebates.html

- Climate Plan

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html