Temperature rise may soon accelerate even more

The April 2024 temperature was 1.32°C higher than 1951-1980, as illustrated by the above image, created with NASA content. Local anomalies are as high as 6.2°C.

The April 2024 temperature was 1.62°C higher than 1900-1930, as illustrated by the above image, created with NASA content. The red line highlights acceleration of the temperature rise (Lowess Smoothing). 

The image below, created with NOAA content, uses a LOESS filter (green line) to highlight the recent acceleration in the temperature rise of the ocean. In this case, the temperature anomaly is calculated versus a 1901-2000 base. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The temperature anomaly is even higher when calculated from a pre-industrial base. The image below, created with NASA content, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, and potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). 

[ from earlier post ]

The image below, created with NASA content, shows Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies versus a 1900-1923 custom base, further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base. 

[ from earlier post ]

The above image shows a magenta trend that points at the temperature crossing 3°C above pre-industrial later this year (2024). What could be behind such a steep rise? 

Have Feedbacks taken over? 

In April 2024, El Niño conditions were still dominant. Sea surface temperatures have been extremely high recently. The correlation between El Niño and temperature anomalies (from 1901-2000) is illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA content.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

As illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA content, El Niño conditions are no longer dominant. Instead, neutral conditions now prevail and La Niña conditions may develop as early as June-August 2024 (49% chance) or one month later, i.e. July-September (69% chance). 

The extremely high recent temperatures and the trends depicted in the images further above raise the question as to what the underlying driver is, given that we're no longer in an El Niño. Indeed, the question is whether feedbacks have taken over as the main driver causing the temperature rise to further accelerate. 

[ from Moistening Atmosphere ]

As mentioned above, the February 2024 temperature could be as much as 2.75°C higher than pre-industrial. The extinction page points out that a 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere. This increase in water vapor in the atmosphere is a self-reinforcing feedback loop, since water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, further accelerating the temperature rise.

There is no single feedback that could cause the recent steep rise of temperatures and its acceleration, instead there are numerous non-linear, self-amplifying feedback loops that can all contribute, interact and start to kick in with greater ferocity, amplifying and further accelerating the rise. 

Such feedbacks do include more water vapor, as said, as well as stronger wind, waves and storms, more ocean stratification, faster loss of sea ice, faster loss of reflectivity of clouds and more freshwater accumulating at the surface of oceans, due to stronger ice melting, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in wind patterns and ocean currents and circulation.

Furthermore, developments such as rising emissions from industry, transport, land use, forest fires and waste fires, ocean acidification and reductions in sulfur emissions over the past few years all contribute to further acceleration of the temperature rise. 

Two tipping points threaten to get crossed

For about one year now, global temperature anomalies have been extremely high, as illustrated by the image below, created with a screenshot from Copernicus, showing an anomaly from 1991-2020 of 0.84°C on May 31, 2024. 

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows sea surface temperature anomalies from 1991-2020 on May 31, 2024. 

The temperature rise is hitting the Arctic harder than elsewhere, as illustrated by the images at the top and below, created with NASA content. 

Contributing to these high temperatures in the Arctic are high temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean, which are now rising rapidly, in line with seasonal changes, as illustrated by the image below, created with Climate Reanalyzer content. 

The above image shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 22.4°C on May 31, 2024, higher than the temperature in 2023 for this time of year. High North Atlantic sea surface temperatures spell bad news for the Arctic, as much ocean heat gets pushed toward the Arctic from the North Atlantic, due to prevailing winds and ocean circulation.

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are now rising strongly, in line with seasonal changes. Ominously, a peak of 25.4°C was reached in August 2023. The question is how high the North Atlantic temperature will be in 2024 at that time of year. 

The image below shows North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1982-2011. Data shown are from September 1, 1981, through May 31, 2024.

As discussed, one reason for the high temperatures of the North Atlantic is that sulfur emissions have been reduced over the years. Furthermore, there are many feedbacks. Importantly, there is potential for the slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to contribute to more heat accumulating at the surface of the North Atlantic Ocean, as also illustrated by the image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image highlights mechanisms with the potential to contribute to further heating up of the Arctic Ocean resulting in more methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Oceans, including storms and changes to the Jet Stream, as discussed before. e.g. in this post. 

One tipping point that threatens to get crossed is loss of Arctic sea ice. Loss of Arctic sea ice comes with albedo change, which constitutes a huge self-reinforcing feedback loop, i.e. the more sea ice disappears, the more sunlight gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, further accelerating sea ice melting, while less sunlight gets reflected back into space.

[ Albedo change, from the Albedo page ]

Next to the albedo loss, there is loss of the latent heat buffer constituted by the sea ice. Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, in this case the energy consumed as solid ice turns into liquid water (i.e. melts). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at about zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface.

As long as air temperatures over the Arctic are below freezing, sea ice can persist at the surface, maintaining sea ice extent, which may give the false impression that sea ice was healthy, whereas in fact sea ice has steadily been declining in thickness.

Arctic sea ice volume is at its lowest on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, created with Danish Meteorological Institute content, and as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one.  

The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat up an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. Loss of sea ice thickness implies loss of the latent heat buffer and constitutes a tipping point, i.e. once crossed, the Arctic Ocean will heat up at accelerating pace. 

The above map, created with Danish Meteorological Institute content, shows that much of the thicker sea ice is located away from the North Pole, such as off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice is likely to melt away quickly as more sunlight starts reaching the Northern Hemisphere and temperatures rise in line with seasonal changes.

Seafloor methane constitutes a second tipping point. When methane escapes from hydrates that get destabilized by rising temperatures, the methane will expand to 160 times its previous volume and enter the atmosphere with force. Without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat could cause large-scale destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

[ from earlier post ]

[ image from the Extinction page ]

On the above image, estimates for these two tipping points are added to Northern Hemisphere Ocean Temperature anomalies vs 1901-2000, created with NOAA data. Furthermore, two trends are added. The magenta trend is based on January 1880-January 2024 data and warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2025. The red trend, which is based on January 2010-January 2024 data and better reflects variables such as El Niño, warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2024.

Crossing of the latent heat tipping point and the seafloor methane tipping point results in ever more heat reaching and accumulating in the Arctic ocean, destabilizing methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

Self-amplifying feedbacks and developments as discussed above, as well as crossing of these two tipping points, could all contribute to cause a temperature rise of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C.

Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at the Climate Emergency group.

Links

• NASA - datasets and images
https://data.giss.nasa.gov

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - National Centers for Environment Information
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center / National Centers for Environmental Prediction
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Moistening Atmosphere

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/moistening-atmosphere.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Arctic Ocean Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html

• Arctic sea ice set for steep decline
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html

• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html

• Arctic sea ice under threat

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat.html

• Blue Ocean Event 2024?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/02/blue-ocean-event-2024.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions

The image below shows that the monthly Atlantic surface temperature anomaly in February 2024 was 1.176°C when compared to a 1951-1980 base.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below shows that the monthly Atlantic surface temperature anomaly in February 2024 was 1.435°C when compared to a 1901-2000 base. 

The difference illustrates the importance of selecting a base to calculate anomalies from. The anomaly indicates how much heat has accumulated in the Atlantic, and it is even larger for February 2024 when using a genuinely pre-industrial base, as discussed earlier.

The images also highlight the potential for the slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to contribute to more heat accumulating at the surface of the Atlantic Ocean.

As temperatures rise, many feedbacks are kicking in with greater ferocity, including increased stratification of oceans, loss of sea ice, loss of reflectivity of clouds and increased freshwater due to stronger melting of sea ice and glacial ice, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in ocean circulation.

While this may look to cause less ocean heat to reach the Arctic Ocean at the moment, the result is that a huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic that threatens to abruptly move into the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that an influx of ocean heat can cause large amounts of methane to erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. 

The inset on the top image illustrates that, as people's emissions raise the temperature, this rise can strengthen wind, evaporation, ocean currents and rainfall locally, resulting in greater potential for a lid to form and spread at the surface of the North Atlantic. As temperatures rise and winds strengthen, more evaporation can occur in one place and more rain can then fall further down the path of the Gulf Stream, i.e. an ocean current that extends into the Arctic Ocean, as part of AMOC. This rain further contributes to the freshwater accumulation at the surface of the North Atlantic.

In the video below, Guy McPherson discusses a recent study by Marilena Oltmanns et al. on some of these issues.

This page further discusses formation of a cool freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic and the contribution to this of Jet Stream changes. The image below shows that the Jet Stream reached speeds as high as 455 km/h or 283 mph north of Washington on February 18, 2024 03:00 UTC, with Instantaneous Wind Power Density as high as 387.5 kW/m².

From earlier post Blue Ocean Event 2024?

A huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and threatens to abruptly move into the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. 

Strong hurricanes can significantly add to the danger. More hurricanes are forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season than during 1950-2020, as illustrated by the image below. 

Many of the dangers have been discussed before, e.g. the danger that sea currents in the Arctic Ocean will change direction, in this 2017 post. 

Arctic sea ice thickness warning

The compilation image below shows Arctic sea ice on March 28, 2024. The satellite image (left) may indicate extensive sea ice, but clouds can obscure things. The other image (right) indicates that sea ice in a large area from the Laptev Sea down to the North Pole may be very thin.

The image below illustrates the decline of Arctic sea ice volume over the years.

The images above and below show that Arctic sea ice volume has recently been the lowest on record for the time of year.

Given that Arctic sea ice currently is still relatively extensive, this low volume indicates that sea ice is indeed very thin, which must be caused by ocean heat melting sea ice from below, since little or no sunshine is yet reaching the Arctic at the moment and air temperatures are still far below freezing point, so where ocean heat may be melting sea ice away from below, a thin layer of ice will quickly be reestablished at the surface. 

This situation looks set to dramatically change over the next few months, as air temperatures will rise and as more ocean heat will reach the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, as illustrated by the map below, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice and the purple-colored sea ice can be expected to melt away quickly with the upcoming rise in temperatures over the next few months.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer

https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years - by Marilena Oltmanns et al.
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/109/2024/wcd-5-109-2024-discussion.html
discussed at facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161330866254679

• Science Snippets: Arctic Sea Ice Affects European Summers, Marine Life, and All Life on Earth - by Guy McPherson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X09vtWNDuDw

• nullschool 
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Extended range forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and landfall strike probability for 2024 - by Philip Klotzbach et al.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161346323759679

• Arctic Ocean Feedbacks

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html

• NASA Worldview satellite images
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Ocean Heat Overwhelming North Atlantic

Arctic sea ice extent on June 19, 2016, was at a record low for the time of the year, as the (updated) image below shows.

[ image from JAXA ]

Not only is Arctic sea ice extent at record low for time of year, the sea ice is also rapidly getting thinner, more fractured, lower in concentration and darker in color. 

[ Cracks in sea ice north of Greenland on June 19, 2016, created with Arctic-io image ]

On the morning of June 20, 2016, strong methane releases were recorded over the water north of Greenland, as well as east of Greenland, as illustrated by the image below.

The image below shows that on the morning of June 20, 2016, mean global methane levels had increased be several parts per billion over a large altitude range, compared to the two previous days. Methane levels at selected altitudes on days in July 2015 and December 2015 are added for reference.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Temperatures in the Arctic are rising, as illustrated by the image below, showing that on June 19, 2016, temperatures were as high as 31.4°C or 88.4°F over the Mackenzie River (green circle) which ends in
the Arctic Ocean (and thus warms up the Arctic Ocean there).

On June 20, 2016, the Sun will reach its highest point (Solstice), and the Arctic will have 24 hours sunlight, i.e. on the Arctic Circle (latitude 66.56° north) or higher. The Arctic is about 20,000,000 square km (7,700,000 square miles) in size and covers roughly 4% of Earth's surface. Insolation during the months June and July is higher in the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth, as illustrated by the image below, by Pidwirny (2006).

Sea surface temperature near Svalbard was as high as 55°F (or 12.8°C, at the green circle) on June 14, 2016, an anomaly of 19.6 °F (or 10.9°C) from 1981-2011, as illustrated by the image below.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Above image, created with nullschool.net, further shows that the cold lid that had been growing so prominently in extent over the North Atlantic over the past few years, has shrunk substantially. By comparison, the cold area over the North Pacific has grown larger. This is further confirmed by the image on the right, created with NASA maps and showing ocean temperature anomalies for May 2016.

Plenty of meltwater has run off from Greenland in 2016, as illustrated by the NSIDC.gov image on the right. The run-off from Alaska and Siberia into the Pacific seems less by comparison than the run-off into the North Atlantic. So, how could it be that the cold area in the North Pacific has grown larger than the cold area in the North Atlantic?

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Could there be another factor influencing the size of these cold areas in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific?

The image below, created with NOAA images, gives a comparison between the situation on June 1, 2015 (top), and June 1, 2016 (bottom), showing anomalies from 1961-1990.

Strong winds threaten to push sea ice out of Arctic Ocean

By Albert Kallio

The lateral viscosity of the thin Arctic sea ice cover continues to lower. In November just one quarter of the high Arctic Ocean basin above 85° north was covered by a thin this winter's ice. This has now doubled, soon covering two quarters. The ice has been pushed away from Russia towards Canada and to the Fram Strait at phenomenal rates.

 

Animation by navy.mil showing 30 days of sea ice thickness, up to January 1, 2015

This is increasingly suggesting that the remaining half in front of the Fram Strait will be sucked into the Atlantic Ocean soon. The dark blue ice is newly formed crushed ice behind the North Pole (pack ice). We may well be in course to the first recorded ice free season in the Arctic Ocean. In addition, the rear is pushed from behind Canada to the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.

Animation by navy.mil showing 30 days of sea ice speed and drift, up to January 1, 2015

We need to act, now. I think we need to monitor this development almost on daily basis. I am curious to see how the ice may behave after the last remainders of the second quarter are sucked into the Atlantic Ocean and the newly forming sea ice will face the force of the Atlantic waves. That could mean extremely highly fractured sea ice across the Russian side by the return of spring 2015 sunlight.

I think we are witnessing a historic transition right now with no ice in the summers.

Post by Sam Carana.

Antarctica linked to Arctic

Waters in the Arctic Ocean continue to warm up. Very warm waters from the North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean are invading the Arctic Ocean.

Waters in the North Atlantic and in the North Pacific are very warm, due to a number of reasons.

What is happening in the oceans is very important in this respect. As discussed in earlier posts, most of the extra heat caused by people's emissions goes into the oceans.

The great ocean conveyor belt (Thermohaline Circulation), brings warm water from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere.

The Gulf Stream is the North Atlantic leg of the great ocean conveyor belt, and it brings dense, salty water from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean.

Saltier water is denser than fresher water because the dissolved salts fill interstices between water molecules, resulting in more mass per unit volume.

Very dense ocean water can be found in the North Atlantic because the North Atlantic has high salinity, due to high evaporation rates, while salty water is also coming from the Mediterranean Sea.

As also discussed in an earlier post, this dense, saltier water sinks in the North Atlantic, accumulating in deeper water.

By contrast, much of the Arctic Ocean has low salinity, due to ice melt and river runoff.  As it enters the Arctic Ocean, the warm and dense water from the Atlantic thus dives under the under the sea ice and under the less salty surface water in the Arctic Ocean.

In conclusion, much of the heat resulting from people's emissions accumulates in the North Atlantic and also ends up in the Arctic. This partly explains why surface temperatures are rising much faster at the poles, as illustrated by the NOAA image below.

There are further reasons why surface air temperatures elsewhere (other than at the poles) are rising less rapidly than they did, say, a decade ago. As also discussed by Andrew Glikson in the post No Planet B, the increased amounts of sulphur emitted by the growing number of coal-fired power plants and by the burning of bunker fuel on sea is (temporarily) masking the full wrath of global warming.

Another reason is the growth of the sea ice around Antarctica, as illustrated by the CryosphereToday image on the left.

Melting takes place both in the Arctic and on Antarctica, but more so in the Arctic. Recent research of CryoSat-2 data reveals that Greenland alone is now losing about 375 cubic kilometers of ice annually, while in Antarctica the annual volume loss now is about 125 cubic kilometers.

Currents also distribute ocean heat in ways that make the Arctic warm up more than twice as rapidly as the Antarctic. In a recent paper, John Marshall et al. further suggest that ozone depletion also contributes to this.

All this makes that, while the jet streams on the northern hemisphere are circumnavigating the globe at a slower pace, jet streams on the southern hemisphere are getting stronger, making it more difficult for warm air to enter the atmosphere over Antarctica, while the stronger winds also speed up sea currents on the southern hemisphere. This makes the sea ice around Antarctica grow, and as the sea ice spreads further away from Antarctica, temperatures of surface waters around Antarctica are falling.

Growth of the sea ice around Antarctica makes that more sunlight is reflected back into space. There now is some 1.5 million square kilometers more sea ice around Antarctica than there used to be. The albedo change associated with sea ice growth on the southern hemisphere can be estimated at 1.7 W/sq m, i.e. more than the total RF of all CO2 emission caused by people from 1750 to 2011 (IPCC AR5).

The rapid growth of sea ice on the southern hemisphere alone goes a long way to explain why, over the past three months, surface air temperatures have not been much higher than they used to be, both globally and in the Arctic, as illustrated by above NOAA image. What has also contributed to warmer temperatures around latitude 60 on the northern hemisphere is the fact that methane has accumulated in the atmosphere at that latitude, as discussed in earlier posts.

Arctic SST far exceed anything ever seen in human history

So, does the sea ice on the southern hemisphere constitute a negative feedback that could hold back global warming? It doesn't.

It may temporarily keep surface temperatures close to what they used to be, as the sea ice reflects lots of sunlight back into space, but at the same time ocean temperatures are rising strongly, as the sea ice also prevents heat from radiating out of the waters around Antarctica.

The latter also helps explaining the colder surface temperatures over those waters.

Much of this additional ocean heat has meanwhile been transported by the great ocean conveyor belt to the northern hemisphere.

No time before in human history has such a huge amount of ocean heat accumulated in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. This heat is now threatening to invade the Arctic Ocean and trigger huge temperature rises due to methane eruptions from the seafloor.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as dicussed at the Climate Plan blog.