Arctic News: wildfires

Showing posts with label wildfires. Show all posts

Saturday, October 26, 2024

Models downplay wrath of what they sow

Models that analyze what is driving up the temperature all too often omit specific sources, or when included, models all too often downplay their contribution. Accordingly, policies that are promoted based on such models are all too often ineffective or even counter-productive.

Methane is all too often referred to as 'natural gas' originating from wetlands, swamps, cows and pigs, as if calling methane 'natural' implied that human activities were not responsible for such emissions. Moreover, people with vested interests all too often suggest that such 'natural emissions' should be captured and used for heating, cooking or industrial purposes, to offset 'human emissions'. Similarly, forest fires are all too often referred to as 'wildfires', as if human activities were not responsible for them.

The compilation of images below shows forest fires as the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions on October 26, 2024. An image of carbon monoxide is also added (bottom right), as carbon monoxide is an indicator of forest fires. Carbon monoxide is also important since it is a precursor of tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide depletes tropospheric hydroxyl radicals, thus extending methane's lifetime.

The methane image (top right) shows a high presence of methane in northern Europe. The cause for this is the high temperatures anomaly in northern Europe on October 26, 2024, resulting in strong decomposition of vegetation, which comes with high emissions of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and methane.

The high temperatures anomaly in northern Europe is illustrated by the above image. The image also illustrates polar amplification of the temperature rise, one of the mechanisms that drives up the temperature rise. Numerous mechanisms driving up the temperature rise are discussed in an earlier post that warns about a Double Blue Ocean Event. Thawing permafrost can cause huge emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane and nitrous oxide.

[ from earlier post ]

Rising emissions could originate from many sources, the more so as more sinks turn into sources.

[ from earlier post ]

Many models go back only to 1750, many even use an earlier base, as if concentrations of greenhouse gases only started to rise then.

The image on the right shows IPCC and WMO values for the rise of methane (CH₄), carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) from 1750. The image shows that:

- Methane rose to 265% its 1750 value. - Carbon dioxide rose to 151% its 1750 value.
- Nitrous oxide rose to 125% its 1750 value.

Note that values for methane as low as 550 ppb and carbon dioxide as low as 260 ppm have been found in ice cores corresponding with periods thousands of years ago, as illustrated by the image below, from the pre-industrial page, based on Ruddiman et al. (2015).

According to the Met Office, climate sensitivity is typically defined as the global temperature rise following a doubling of CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere compared to pre-industrial levels. Pre-industrial CO₂ was about 260 parts per million (ppm), so a doubling would be at roughly 520 ppm.

A recent study found that doubling the atmospheric CO₂ levels could cause an increase in Earth’s average temperature of 7 to 14°C (13 to 25.2°F). In the video below, Guy McPherson discusses the study.

How fast could a rise to 520 ppm CO₂ unfold? Models typically put 520 ppm CO₂ far away in the future. The image below shows an analysis based on August 2009 through July 2024 data that has a trend added pointing at 520 ppm CO₂ getting crossed in 2029 and 1200 ppm CO₂ getting crossed in early 2035. In other words, the clouds tipping point could get crossed in early 2035 due to rising CO₂ alone, and because this tipping point is measured in CO₂e, this could occur well before 2035 when including the impact of feedbacks and further mechanisms.

[ from earlier post ]

Another way the danger of rising temperatures is all too often downplayed is to suggest that many feedbacks work only over very long timescales. This narrative may be convenient for politicians who rarely bother about what happens beyond the next election. However, as discussed in a recent post, there are many mechanisms that can push up the temperature rapidly, adding up to a potential rise of more than 18°C within years.

Climate Emergency Declaration

Instead of omitting them, all mechanisms driving up the temperature should be fully included in an action plan that seeks to improve the situation. Multiple policy instruments and combinations of policy instruments should be considered for implementation, preferably through local feebates.

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Copernicus - Climate Pulse
https://atmosphere.climate.copernicus.eu

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• World Meteorological Organization (WMO) - Greenhouse Gas Bulletin - No. 20 – 28 October 2024

https://library.wmo.int/records/item/69057-no-20-28-october-2024

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html

• Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene - by Caitlyn R. Witkowski et al. (2024)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161491643879679

• Guy McPherson - Science Snippets: Earth's Temperature Could Exceed 14 C
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jBWl5s7wzo

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Sunday, June 16, 2019

High Temperatures over the Arctic

Melt extent over Greenland was well over 40% on June 12, 2019.

The surface melt map that day (on the right) shows many coastal areas for which data are missing, as indicated by the grey color.

As the June 13, 2019, NASA Worldview satellite image (underneath, right) shows, snow and ice in many coastal areas has melted away.

Four nullschool images are added below. The first one shows air temperatures over Greenland as high as 22.7°C or 72.9°F on June 13, 2019, at 1000 mb. Also note the high temperatures visible over East Siberia and the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS).

A second nullschool image shows that a temperature of 0.9°C or 33.5°F was recorded at the North Pole on June 15, 2019. Temperatures above the melting point of ice have been recorded at the North Pole for some time now.

The third nullschool image shows that temperatures as high as 30.5°C or 86.8°F are forecast for June 19, 2019, near Tiksi, which is on the coast of Siberia where the Lena River flows into the Laptev Sea and the Arctic Ocean.

What causes this? As the Arctic is heating up faster than the rest of the world, the path of the jet stream is changing. On June 19, 2019, the jet stream is forecast to move from Siberia to the Laptev Sea at speeds as high as 192 km/h or 119 mph.

The satellite image shows smoke from fires getting pushed by strong winds over the Laptev Sea on June 16, 2019. Smoke settling on ice makes it darker, further speeding up the melting.

[ Temperatures over Greenland as high as 22.7°C or 72.9°F on June 13, 2019, at 1000 mb ]

[ Temperature of 0.9°C or 33.5°F at the North Pole on June 15, 2019 ]

[ temperatures as high as 30.5°C or 86.8°F are forecast for June 19, 2019, near Tiksi, Siberia ]

[ jet stream is forecast to move from Siberia to the Laptev Sea as fast as at 192 km/h or 119 mph June 19, 2019 ]

[ fires getting pushed by strong winds on June 16, 2019, over the Laptev Sea (at bottom of image) ]

In conclusion, temperatures over the Arctic are high. Changes to the jet stream due to the rapid heating of the Arctic are causing hot air to move deep into the Arctic, including over the Laptev Sea all the way to the North Pole, while high temperatures in Siberia are warming up the water of rivers, causing warm water to flow into the Arctic Ocean.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

April 2018 Update

[ click on image to enlarge ]

On April 22nd, 2018, Arctic sea ice extent was only 13.552 million km², a record low for the time of year. In 1987, by comparison, sea ice extent wasn't below 13.574 million km² even on May 22nd.

Meanwhile, CO₂ (carbon dioxide) levels are rising. The image on the right shows that Mauna Loa's CO₂ hourly average level was above 413 ppm recently. The daily average CO₂ level reached 412.37 ppm on April 23, 2018.

Fires are raging near the Amur River in East Siberia, with associated high emissions, as illustrated by the images below.

Above image shows CO₂ levels reaching as high as 973 ppm on April 18, 2018. As the image below shows, carbon monoxide levels at that spot were as high as 43,240 ppb on April 18, 2018.

The NASA satellite image below shows smoke plumes of the fires and burn scars on April 19, 2018.

Stuart Scott has produced two new videos in which he interviews Professor Peter Wadhams,
A Conversation with Dr. Peter Wadhams - Part 1

and the video below, A Conversation with Dr. Peter Wadhams - Part 2

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Sunday, December 17, 2017

Fires threaten Santa Barbara

New mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for the areas of Montecito, Summerland and some parts of Santa Barbara city, emergency officials said.

Above graph shows carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels from December 5 - 20, 2017, while the map below shows the location of the measurements (and forecasts).

The graph shows levels at one location and for one time of day (00:00 UTC for CO, respectively 01:30 UTC for CO₂). On December 11, 2017, at this location, but at 22:30 UTC, CO levels were 55639 ppb and CO₂ levels were 898 ppm, as illustrated the combination image below (left panel).

The right panel of the image below shows that CO₂ levels were as high as 922 ppm on December 7, 2017, at 01:30 UTC at a slightly different location. No CO₂ measurements were available for December 9 and 10, 2017, but given that levels of CO₂ and CO typically go up and down hand in hand, CO₂ may have peaked at well over 1000 ppm on December 9, 2017, possibly exceeding the 1229 ppm CO₂ measured in Montana on July 22, 2017.

Such fires look set to cause increasing amounts of emissions, speeding up warming of the atmosphere. These fires were fueled by extremely dry, hot and strong winds lasting for many days. Global warming is behind all these conditions. Not only does more heat translate into higher temperatures and stronger winds, the decreasing temperature difference between the Arctic and the Equator is also increasing the intensity and duration of more extreme weather events such as storms and droughts. A record 129 million trees on 8.9 million acres have died in California due to drought and bark beetles infestation.

“For the first time in history, on December 7th, the Cal Fire elevated the fire threat to purple for San Diego County, warning that the weather conditions presented an extreme risk of fire for San Diego,” California Governor Jerry Brown wrote in a request for federal emergency assistance. “Fire officials predict extreme winds of up to 80 miles per hour, equal to the wind speed of a category one hurricane.”

The following is an extract from the California Scoping Plan 2017:
“In California, as in the rest of the world, climate change is contributing to an escalation of serious problems, including raging wildfires, coastal erosion, disruption of water supply, threats to agriculture, spread of insect-borne diseases, and continuing health threats from air pollution. The drought that plagued California for years devastated the state’s agricultural and rural communities, leaving some of them with no drinking water at all. In 2015 alone, the drought cost agriculture in the Central Valley an estimated $2.7 billion, and more than 20,000 jobs. Last winter, the drought was broken by record-breaking rains, which led to flooding that tore through freeways, threatened rural communities, and isolated coastal areas. This year, California experienced the deadliest wildfires in its history. Climate change is making events like these more frequent, more catastrophic and more costly.”

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described at the Climate Plan.

Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Wildfires

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/07/wildfires.html

• Extreme weather is upon us

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/09/extreme-weather-is-upon-us.html

• 10°C or 18°F warmer by 2021?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/04/10c-or-18f-warmer-by-2021.html

• Abrupt Warming - How Much And How Fast?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/05/abrupt-warming-how-much-and-how-fast.html

• Accelerating growth in CO₂ levels in the atmosphere
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/accelerating-growth-in-co2-levels-in-the-atmosphere.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html

• Turning forest waste into biochar
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/01/turning-forest-waste-into-biochar.html

Monday, August 14, 2017

Arctic Sea Ice Break Up August 2017

Sun at 8:00 am, captured by Jim Reeve on August 7, 2017 near Sechelt AirPort, B.C., Canada

Arctic sea ice is under attack from all sides. At this time of year, the sun doesn't set at the higher latitudes.

As the image below shows, it was as hot as 94°F or 34.5°C in North Canada on August 13, 2017 (at the green circle, at 1000 hPa, at 00:00 UTC). Temperatures at surface level were as high as 33.1°C or 91.5°F at that location, where wind was coming from the south and blowing toward the north at a speed of 28 km/h or 17 mph at that time.

Above image shows cyclonic winds over the Arctic Ocean pulling warm air from North Canada over the Arctic Ocean, while pushing cold air out. Winds and rain have been battering the sea ice for some time now, as discussed in an earlier post.

Fires are becoming more devastating, as discussed in an earlier post. The August 2, 2017, satellite image below shows smoke from fires in British Columbia blanketing Vancouver and Seattle. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels were as high as 527 ppm, carbon monoxide (CO) levels as high as 12.59 ppm and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) levels as high as 490.77 µg/m³, as these images show.

The combination image below shows forecasts for August 8, 2017, 13:30 UTC. CO levels were forecast to be as high as 29.05 ppm, CO₂ levels as high as 625 ppm and SO₂ levels as high as 1089.65 µg/m³ (each time at the green circle). Also note the emissions from forest fires in Siberia.

Actual levels were even higher at that spot on August 11, 2017, when CO was as high as 30.97 ppm, CO₂ was as high as 633 ppm and SO₂ was as high as 1150.19 µg/m³, as illustrated by the image below.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below, by Harold Hensel, shows smoke over British Columbia, Washington, and Montana on August 9, 2017.

Winds can carry smoke from forest fires over long distances, all the way to the Arctic sea ice, where the soot can settle and darken the ice, thus speeding up its decline. The image below, also by Harold Hensel, shows smoke from fires in Russia entering the Arctic Ocean near the Laptev Sea on August 9, 2017.

The image below shows the situation on August 14, 2017.

Canadian wildfires caused PM10 to reach levels as high as 11,599 μg/m³ on August 16, 2017, at the location marked by the green circle. The image below shows PM10 getting blown over the Arctic Ocean.

The thickest sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is located close to the north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago. This ice is now breaking up, due to high temperatures and strong cyclonic winds that cause warm rain, high waves and strong sea currents.

Watch the thickest sea ice break up on the animation below. This is a 17 MB file, so it may take some time to fully load. Click here if you do not see the file appear below.

Wildfires

Levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere are accelerating, even though emissions from fossil fuel burning have remained virtually the same over the past few years.

One of the reason behind this is accelerating emissions from wildfires as temperatures are rising.

Wildfires in Nevada caused CO2 to reach levels as high as 742 ppm on July 12, 2017 (green circle image on the right).

Global warming is greatly increasing the chance for what was previously seen as an extreme weather event to occur, such as a combination of droughts and storms. Heat waves and droughts can cause much vegetation to be in a bad condition, while high temperatures can come with strong winds, storms and lightning.

Wildfires cause a range of emissions, including CO2, soot, methane and carbon monoxide (CO). In Nevada, CO levels were as high as 30.43 ppm (green circle image right).

Above satellite image below shows the smoke plumes and the charred area. The google maps image below further shows where the fires were burning.

At the moment, wildfires are hitting many places around the world.

Wildfires caused carbon dioxide to reach levels as high as 746 ppm in Kazakhstan on July 11, 2017 (green circle on image on the right).

Carbon monoxide levels in the area were as high as 20.96 ppm on July 10, 2017.

The satellite image shows wildfires in Kazakhstan on July 9, 2017.

The satellite images show wildfires in Kazakhstan on July 11, 2017.

On July 16, 2017, CO₂ reached levels as high as 830 ppm in North America at the location marked by the green circle on the image below. Note that fires are burning at multiple locations.

The image below shows the location (red marker) where the fires burned in Canada.

That same day, July 16, 2017, CO₂ reached levels as high as 873 ppm in Mongolia, as shown by the image on the right.

The image also shows further fires burning in Siberia.

Carbon monoxide levels were as high as 37.19 ppm where the fires burned in Mongolia on July 16, 2017, as shown by the image below.

The image below shows the location (red marker) where the fires burned in Mongolia. The image also shows Lake Baikal across the border with Russia.

On July 22, 2017, CO₂ reached levels as high as 1229 ppm in Montana, while CO levels at the time were as high as 56.38 ppm at that location (green circle on image below).

The satellite image below shows the situation in Montana on the next day, July 23, 2017. See also the
NASA post Grassland Fires Tear Through Montana.

Furthermore, on July 23, 2017, CO₂ reached levels as high as 884 ppm at another (nearby) location in Montana (green circle on image below).

Meanwhile, temperatures keep rising. Surface temperature as high as 53.1°C or 127.5°F were forecast in Iran for July 11, 2017, at the location marked by the green circle on the image below.

At 1000 mb (image below), temperatures in Iran were forecast to be slightly lower, i.e. as high as 51.9°C or 125.3°F at the location marked by the at green circle, but note the difference in color, especially over Greenland, the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described at the Climate Plan.

Aerosols

Some aerosols, particularly sulfur dioxide, have a cooling effect, making that they partly mask the warming effect of other emissions by people. The IPCC AR4 image below shows that the direct and cloud albedo effect of aerosols equals a radiative forcing of as much as -2.7 W/m². In other words, if this masking effect were to fall away, warming would increase by as much as 2.7 W/m², according to IPCC AR4 figures.

Anthropogenic aerosols are also suppressing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, making that less heat gets transferred from oceans to the atmosphere. Recent research concludes that future reduction of anthropogenic aerosol emissions, particularly from China, would promote positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation, thus further speeding up warming over the coming years.

Dimethyl sulphide emissions from oceans constitute the largest natural source of atmospheric sulphur, and such emissions can decrease with ongoing ocean acidification and climate change. This could particularly impact specific regions such as Antarctica, speeding up warming and loss of sea ice there, as discussed at this paper.

The net warming effect of open biomass burning was estimated in a 2014 study by Mark Jacobson to amount to 0.4 W/m² of radiative forcing. Imagine a scenario in which many people stopped burning fossil fuels for heating, cooking and energy. That would be great, but if many of them instead switched to burning biomass in woodburners and open fires, while wildfires increased strongly, the net warming from associated aerosols would increase dramatically.

A recent paper by James Hansen uses equilibrium fast-feedback climate sensitivity of ¾°C per W/m², while another recent paper suggest that the temperature rise per W/m² could be even stronger.

A high-end increase in net radiative forcing combined with a strong temperature rise per W/m² could cause a temperature rise as a result of changes in aerosols of as much as 2.5°C in a matter of years, as suggested in earlier posts such as this one.

Saturday, October 26, 2024

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Sunday, December 17, 2017

Monday, August 14, 2017

Thursday, July 13, 2017