Showing posts with label sea ice. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sea ice. Show all posts

Saturday, April 18, 2026

Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027?

Arctic sea ice

A Blue Ocean Event could be declared when Arctic sea ice reaches or crosses a threshold of 1 million km² in extent. However, extent can include holes, gaps or cracks in the sea ice and melt ponds on top of the ice, all having a darker color than ice. By contrast, sea ice area is the total region covered by ice alone, making it a more critical measurement in regard to albedo and the capacity of sea ice to act as a buffer that consumes incoming ocean heat. Accordingly, the critical threshold for a Blue Ocean Event to occur can be said to be 1 million km² in area.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice area over the years, with 2012 highlighted in blue and 2026 highlighted in black. On September 12, 2012, Arctic sea ice area was 2.24 million km². On April 22, 2012, Arctic sea ice area was 12.87 million km². On April 22, 2026, Arctic sea ice area was 11.60 million km², a record low for the time of year and 1.37 million km² lower than it was on April 22, 2012. A Blue Ocean Event could occur in September 2026 if Arctic sea ice area by then would be at least 1.24 million km² lower than it was in 2012. 


The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on April 22, 2026.

At the end of April 2025, Arctic sea ice maximum volume was about 19,000 km³, as highlighted by the image on the right. The 2026 maximum may turn out to be even lower, about 18,000 km³.

That 18,000 km³ is an important number. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through April 18, 2026, with the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum, blue) and September (annual minimum, red) indicated by bars colored magenta (strong melting, 18,000 km³) and green (little melting, 15,000 km³).


A record low maximum volume was reached in April 2025. Relatively little melting took place from April 2025 to September 2025, yet a record low minimum volume was reached in September 2025. The April 2026 maximum looks set to be even lower, i.e. about 18,000 km³.

In the above image, the difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³. With strong melting taking place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur, with virtually all Arctic sea disappearing in September 2026. 

Methane threat

The image below, from an earlier post, illustrates the threat of thinning of Arctic sea ice resulting in increased ocean heat and methane eruptions. Arctic sea ice decline could strongly contribute to the temperature rise, as illustrated by the image below and also discussed in this earlier post.

[ The Buffer is gone ]
Temperature

The world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature (SST) was at a record high for the time of year on April 19, 2026, as illustrated by the image below. 


Recently, the 2026 SST was just short of the record high SST of 21.17°C reached in 2024. The 2026 SST has risen strongly and keeps rising, even as the average anomaly for earlier years is coming down due to the change of seasons that is causing SST to come down in the Southern Hemisphere where most of the world oceans are located. 

In the Southern Hemisphere, the surface air temperature remains at a record high for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below that shows SH temperatures through April 14, 2026. 


What makes the situation particularly dangerous is that an El Niño is on the way that may be very strong. With high SST in the Southern Ocean in December 2026, Antarctic sea ice will undergo very strong melting, threatening an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur early 2027.

Antarctic sea ice

Could an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event occur in early 2027? As illustrated by the image below, Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called.  

   [ Saltier water, less sea ice - from earlier post ]
What caused the 2023 Antarctic sea ice decline? Until 2015, rising temperatures resulted in melting of ice and enhanced precipitation that freshened the surface of the Southern Ocean, exacerbated by increasing stratification that prevented mixing. The temperature rise over the years also caused winds to be stronger, at the time causing the sea ice to spread out wider.

The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

A recent study led by Theo Spira finds that, in 2015, anomalously strong winds enhanced mixing across the thin Winter Water layer, entraining warm and salty subsurface waters, which broke down upper-ocean stratification. Another recent study led by Earle Wilson find that in 2015, intensified wind-driven upwelling reversed the freshening trends, releasing years of accumulated ocean heat that contributed to unprecedented sea ice loss.

An earlier post discusses a study led by Alessandro Silvano that finds how, around 2015, surface salinity in the Southern Ocean began rising sharply – just as sea ice extent started to crash. The post describes that higher temperatures come with feedbacks such as stronger wind and stronger evaporation, resulting in increased water vapor in the atmosphere. Much of the water vapor will return to the surface in the form of precipitation such as rain and snow, but part of this precipitation will fall over Antarctica, with the net result of an increase in salinity of surface of the Southern Ocean. The post also points at the danger that heat, previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, will instead remain at the surface and cause atmospheric temperatures to rise.

El Niño

An earlier post describes how the upcoming El Niño could cause dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice and further emissions that could jointly increase global temperatures and contribute to an Antarctic sea ice decline even stronger than in 2023.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
El Niño may peak in December 2026. El Niño is named after the Spanish phrase "El Niño de Navidad," meaning "the Christ Child" or "the little boy," as South American fishermen in the 1800s noticed that the unusually warm ocean waters—which reduced their fish catch—tended to peak around Christmas time.

The image on the right shows a NOAA forecast issued April 21, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region up to January 2027 that goes off the scale for some forecast members. 

The combination image below illustrates the rise of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 1+2 region of more than 3°C (from less than -1.5°C to more than 1.5°C) over the past four months.


Conclusion

In conclusion, an Arctic Blue Ocean Event could occur in September 2026, followed by an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event in early 2027. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The feedbacks map below is adapted from an image by Peter Carter, Climate Emergency Institute. 
[ click on images to enlarge ]
The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Kevin Pluck - Sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Wind-triggered Antarctic sea-ice decline preconditioned by thinning Winter - by Theo Spira et al. Waterhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02601-4
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164023607639679

• Recent extremes in Antarctic sea ice extent modulated by ocean heat ventilation - by Earle Wilson et al. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2530832123
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164149040674679

• Peter Carter - Climate Emergency Institute
https://www.climateemergencyinstitute.com







Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , ,

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Signals flashing red indicating further acceleration toward climate collapse

Greenhouse gas concentrations

The image below shows hourly (red circles) and daily (yellow circles) averaged carbon dioxide (CO₂) values from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, over 31 days. The highest daily average CO₂ concentration on record, 431.95 ppm, was recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on March 28, 2026 (third yellow circle from the right). In bold on the image are recent daily averages, since March 24, 2026.


CO₂ average daily concentrations were at a record high of 431.95 parts per million (ppm), at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on March 28, 2026. The image below shows daily (green circles), weekly (red lines) and monthly (blue lines) averages for the last year. The weekly average for the week beginning on March 22, 2026 was 430.93 ppm (red line top right).


The image below shows daily average CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii since 2020. The highest daily average CO₂ concentration on record, 431.95 ppm, was recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on March 28, 2026.


Concentrations of carbon dioxide haven't been this high for millions of years, as confirmed by recent analysis led by Sarah Shackleton and Julia Marks-Peterson. Their analysis finds that, while the average temperature of the ocean has decreased by 2 to 2.5°C over the past 3 million years, average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have likely remained below 300 parts per million over this time. Methane levels have also remained relatively stable. This makes the recent daily concentration of 431.95 ppm at Mauna Loa and the high recent methane levels (see image below) even more threatening and it means that, in addition to the key role of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, there were important contributions from other components of the climate system such as Earth’s reflectivity, variations in vegetation and/or ice cover and ocean circulation.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above combination image shows methane levels as high as 2240 parts per billion (ppb) close to sea level (left panel, 1000 mb) and as high as 2541 ppb at a slightly higher altitude (right panel, 840 mb) recorded by the NOAA 21 satellite on March 11, 2026 AM. The combination image below shows methane levels as high as 231 ppb at 1000 mb (left panel) and as high as 2576 ppb at 399.1 mb (right panel) recorded by the NOAA 20 satellite on March 11, 2026 PM.


Together, these combination images support the suggestion that a burst of methane did enter the atmosphere at a location over the ocean, resulting in very high methane levels in the morning slightly above sea level and even higher methane levels higher up in the atmosphere later that day. 

Sea surface temperature

The image below shows world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperatures from NOAA OISST V2.1. The sea surface temperature was 21.15°C on March 27, 2026, a record high temperature for the time of year and a +0.75°C anomaly compared to 1982-2010. The sea surface temperature has risen by 0.46°C since the start of 2026.


Furthermore, changes in salinity and ocean currents, together with ocean stratification, ocean oxygen depletion and sea ice loss can result in oceans changing from heat sinks into heat sources, resulting in more heat remaining in the air and getting transferred to the air, as discussed in earlier post such as this one and as discussed in this analysis, also discussed here.

Earth Albedo

The image below, adapted from an image by Eliot Jacobson, shows now much the Earth Albedo (reflectivity) has fallen from February 23 through January 2026.


Arctic sea ice

One of the contributors to albedo loss is Arctic sea ice loss. The image below, adapted from NSIDC, shows that on March 25, 2026, the Arctic sea ice extent was 14.011 million km², the lowest extent on record for the time of year.

The image below, adapted from ads.nipr.ac.jp, shows that Arctic sea ice extent was 13.37 million km² on March 27, 2026, the lowest sea ice extent on record for the time of year. 

The situation is very dangerous, since we're moving out of a La Niña (which is suppressing the temperature) into an El Niño (which will be elevating the temperature). 

The danger is that a Blue Ocean Event will occur in 2026 if Arctic sea ice continues to be low and if melting from April 2026 onward will be strong. A Blue Ocean Event can be said to occur when virtually no sea ice remains to keep consuming ocean heat that is entering the Arctic Ocean mainly from the Atlantic Ocean. Virtually no sea ice could be 1 million km² or less in sea ice extent, but it could also be measured in area, as illustrated by the image below.

The image below shows that the Arctic sea ice area was the lowest on record on March 25, 2026. Arctic sea ice area was 13.43 million km² on March 25, 2012, and area was 12.31 million km² on March 25, 2026, i.e. a difference of 1.12 million km² and the same difference as there was on March 20, 2026. Arctic sea ice area was 2.24 million km² on September 12, 2012, so with this difference persisting, Arctic sea ice area would be 1.12 million km² in September 2026, or very close to a Blue Ocean Event.


The danger that a Blue Ocean Event will occur in September 2026 is further illustrated by the image below. The image, from an earlier post, which shows Arctic sea ice volume in the past 25 years. Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. In 2025, Arctic sea ice reached a record low maximum volume, as well as a record low minimum volume.


As illustrated by the above image, adapted from dmi.dk, Arctic sea ice volume was very low in April 2025, so while relatively little melting took place from April 2025 to September 2025, a record low Arctic sea ice volume was still reached in September 2025. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through mid February 2026, with an analysis of the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum) by means of the bars colored magenta (strong melting) and green (little melting).

If the downward trend in annual maxima (blue circles) continues, Arctic sea ice looks set to reach an even lower maximum volume in April 2026. The difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur later in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event could also be said to occur when only 1000 km³ or less Arctic sea ice volume remains. The image below, adapted from dmi.dk, shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on March 31, 2026. 


Could the N.H land-only temperature rise by more than 3°C in 2027?

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows that the global surface air temperature was 14.31°C on March 26, 2026, the highest temperature on record for the time of year. 


Could the temperature rise by more than 3°C soon? The upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature on land in the Northern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the combination image below that uses land-only data in the top panel and Northern Hemisphere data in the bottom panel. While the image shows NASA data from 2011 until 2028 (top panel, land-only) and data from 2011 until 2029 (bottom panel, N.H), the trends are calculated using annual data from 2010 through 2025. The quartic trends point at the temperature crossing 3°C in the Northern Hemisphere in early 2028 (bottom), and on land-only in early 2027.  


There are compound impacts such as that the temperature will rise faster on land in the Northern Hemisphere, and even faster during heatwaves in large cities where they are affected by the Urban Heat Island effect. Moreover, the 1880-1920 base is not pre-industrial, the outlook may be even more dire when using a genuinely pre-industrial base. 

Note also that the above are annual average temperature anomalies, i.e. the average for higher and lower anomalies during the year. A recent study shows that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2°C warming for several sectors. For droughts in global key breadbasket regions, precipitation extremes over highly populated areas and fire weather extremes across forests, global climatic impact-drivers at 2°C of global warming may turn out to be much more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3°C or 4°C warming. Indeed, the peaks are more critical than the averages. 

Recent research finds that, while fully frozen permafrost can be considered both to function as a seal preventing subsurface gases being released, and to prevent the creation of new CO₂ and CH₄, gas permeability increases by about 25–100 times during thawing, with most permeability change occurring in the −5°C to −1°C range, indicating that the protective gas seal previously provided by permafrost will be lost as permafrost thaws.

The danger is that the temperature will not merely "overshoot" the 3°C threshold, but that the temperature will continue to rise, especially on land in the Northern Hemisphere, and accelerate over the Arctic. Given the severity, ubiquity and imminence of the danger, one would think that highlighting the danger will prompt people into taking effective climate action, but the outlook is that the temperature will continue to rise for at least a few years, hence the choice of the trend and the canvas, which in the above image is limited to 3°C and until 2028, respectively 2029 (as also discussed on facebook here).

Polynomial trends such as the one in the above image can highlight warnings about dangers that are discussed in this post and in earlier posts, in particular warnings that a strong El Niño is on the way which could cause a strong rise in temperature in the course of 2026 and trigger further acceleration of the temperature rise. 

Indeed, the rise resulting from a strong El Niño would come on top of a temperature rise that is already accelerating due to high concentrations of greenhouse gases, while deforestation and numerous feedbacks are kicking in with greater ferocity, and while the temperature rise is amplified in the Arctic (see image below, from earlier post), which could lead to a Blue Ocean Event soon, further speeding up the temperature rise and resulting in loss of permafrost, eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, further loss of lower clouds, etc.


The above image, from an earlier post, shows that the 2025 Arctic temperature was 3.431°C higher than in 1951-1980. The only year on record that had an anomaly higher than 2025 was 2016, when there was a super El Niño.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - data viewer - Mauna Loa, Hawaii

• NOAA - Office of satellite and product operations - HEAP NUCAPS

• Broadly stable atmospheric CO2 and CH4 levels over the past 3 million years - by Julia Marks-Peterson et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-10032-y
and
• Global ocean heat content over the past 3 million years - by Sarah Shackleton et al.

• Earth Albedo - by Eliot Jacobson

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - custom plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html
quartic trend analysis was discussed earlier on facebook at: 

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Extent
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Copernicus

• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html

• Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - by Emanuele Bevacqua et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10237-9
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164067383004679

• Measurement of Gas Fraction and Gas Permeability of Thawing Permafrost Caused by Climate Change - by Paul Glover et al. 
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EF007232
Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , , ,

Monday, March 2, 2026

The 2026 El Nino - update March 2026

The 2026 El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño alone can make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts, indicating that El Niño will emerge in the course of 2026.

The image below, also adapted from NOAA, shows El Niño years (red), La Niña years (blue) and neutral years (grey).


The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities for the Niño3.4 region (5°N-5°S,120°W-170°W) relative sea surface temperature index, indicating El Niño (red bar) will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through February 2027 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

[ image from earlier post ]
The combination image below, also adapted from ECMWF, shows anomalies and forecasts through September 2026 in the Niño3.4 region (left panel) and the Niño1+2 region (right panel).


Sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C in the NINO3.4 region indicate a "super" or very strong El Niño event. 

Zeke Hausfather made the image below based on forecasts by different modeling groups that suggest that we might see an event comparable in strength to what we saw in 2016.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image below, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a rise since early January 2026 of more than 2.5°C in sea surface temperature anomalies (CDAS data) in the Niño1+2 region from early January 2026 to March 1, 2026.


Forests burning

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows high levels of carbon dioxide over South America, Central Africa and India on March 14, 2026, indicating massive burning of forests and crop residues. 

Ocean temperatures

During La Niña, heat builds up underneath the sea surface, so sea surface temperatures and air temperatures get suppressed. The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates ocean heat building up in the Equatorial Pacific region. 


During El Niño, more ocean heat comes to the sea surface and more ocean heat gets transferred to the atmosphere, resulting in elevated air temperatures. 

The image below shows world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperatures from NOAA OISST V2.1. The sea surface temperature was 21.15°C on March 24, 2026, a record high temperature for the time of year and a +0.74°C anomaly compared to 1982-2010. The sea surface temperature has risen by 0.46°C since the start of 2026. 


Furthermore, changes in salinity and ocean currents, together with ocean stratification, ocean oxygen depletion and sea ice loss can result in oceans changing from heat sinks into heat sources, resulting in more heat remaining in the air and getting transferred to the air, as discussed in earlier post such as this one and as discussed in this analysis, also discussed here. The danger is illustrated by the image below. 

[ image from earlier post, discussed on facebook and also at the Arcticnews group on facebook ]
The upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature. The above image shows ERA5 daily sea surface temperature anomalies (60°S-60°N) from 1 January 2023 through 25 February 2026, with an added trend, warning about the potential for a steep temperature rise in 2026.


The above image shows NASA February 2026 Land+Ocean temperature anomalies as high as 6.6°C with an average of 1.24°C above 1951-1980.

Land-only temperatures


The above image was created with NASA Land Only temperature anomalies versus 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) through February 2026. The image shows that the 1.5°C threshold was crossed on land for all months since 2022 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold was crossed on land since 2022. The dashed red line is a linear extension of the red line that indicates that the 3°C threshold may get crossed soon, possibly half 2029 if this linear trend continues (dashed red extension). 

The images below and above focus on land-only temperatures, since virtually all people live on land (rather than oceans), which makes it critical for people to know by how much temperatures could rise on land.

Some suggest that one decade was too short to qualify as a climate period. Climate change generally does take place over many years, as opposed to seasonal changes that take place within a period of one or a few years time, while the weather can change by the hour. Yet, acceleration in the rise in temperature over a short period of time should not be ignored in discussions about climate change and action on climate change.

The image below shows 15 years of NASA Land-Only temperature anomalies versus 1880-1920 (not pre-industrial) with a quartic trend added that points at the 3°C threshold getting crossed in 2027. The trend is calculated over 16 years of data, so when adding 16 years into the future, a trend that has the start of 2026 at its center would cover a 32-year period if extended to the year 2041.

The canvas in the image below shows a yellow trend starting in 2011, with the dashed part for the years 2026 and 2027 constituting an extension of the trend made visible for years for which no annual data are yet available. The canvas of the image is limited to 3°C for the vertical axis and to the start of the year 2028 for the horizontal axis, since humans are likely to go extinct with a 3°C rise. So, while the canvas is limited, the trend actually covers a period of 32 years.

[ Could a steep rise in land-only temperatures occur soon? ]
The danger is that the temperature will not merely "overshoot" the 3°C threshold, but that the temperature will continue to rise. Given the severity, ubiquity and imminence of the danger, one would think that highlighting the danger will prompt people into taking climate action, but no predictions are made and no promises or guarantees can be offered, so it makes sense for the canvas to stop there (discussed on facebook here).

Such trends should not be confused with near-future temperature forecasts or predictions. The image poses questions such as whether a steep rise in land-only temperatures could occur soon. The debate page further discusses whether the danger can best be highlighted using data dating back only a few years, whether linear or non-linear trends should be used, etc.

Polynomial trends such as the one in the above image can highlight warnings about dangers that are discussed in this post and in earlier posts, i.e. warnings that a strong El Niño may be on the way that could cause a strong rise in temperature in the course of 2026, a rise that would come on top of a temperature rise that is already accelerating due to high concentrations of greenhouse gases, while deforestation and numerous feedbacks are kicking in with greater ferocity, and while the temperature rise is amplified in the Arctic, which could lead to a Blue Ocean Event soon, further speeding up the temperature rise and resulting in loss of permafrost, eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, further loss of lower clouds, etc.

Arctic temperatures

The above image shows that the 2025 Arctic temperature was 3.431°C higher than in 1951-1980. The only year on record that had an anomaly higher than 2025 was 2016, when there was a super El Niño. 


[ click on images to enlarge ]
The above image shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast for August 2026, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, with sea surface temperature anomalies higher than 5°C showing up over much of the Arctic Ocean. 

The image on the right shows that most forecasts point at a sea surface temperature anomaly exceeding 2°C in the NINO3.4 region in Sept 2026, indicating that a super El Niño event is on the way.

The image below shows a 2-meter temperature anomaly forecast for November 2026, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.

[ image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]
The image below shows a 2-meter temperature anomaly forecast for December 2026, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, with very high anomalies again showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.


Arctic sea ice

The image below, adapted from ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop, shows that the Arctic sea ice was 13.38 million km² in extent on March 24, 2026, the lowest extent on record for the time of year. 


The image below, adapted from NSIDC, shows that on March 24, 2026, the Arctic sea ice extent was 14.024 million km², the lowest extent on record for the time of year. 


This is a very dangerous situation, since we're moving out of a La Niña (which is suppressing the temperature) into an El Niño (which will be elevating the temperature), as also described in a recent post. 

The image below shows that the Arctic sea ice extent anomaly was 1.38 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on March 22, 2026 (black), the lowest daily anomaly on record and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.12σ. Also highlighted is the sea ice extent anomaly for 2016 (blue), when there was a strong El Niño. 

The danger is that a Blue Ocean Event will occur in 2026 if Arctic sea ice continues to be low and if melting from April 2026 onward will be strong. A Blue Ocean Event can be said to occur when virtually no sea ice remains to keep consuming ocean heat that is entering the Arctic Ocean mainly from the Atlantic Ocean. Virtually no sea ice could be 1 million km² or less in sea ice extent, but it could also be measured in area. 

The image below illustrates that the Arctic sea ice area was 13.52 million km² on March 20, 2012, and it was 12.40 million km² on March 20, 2026, i.e. a difference of 1.12 million km². Arctic sea ice area was 2.24 million km² on September 12, 2012, so if this difference persists, Arctic sea ice area would be 1.12 million km² in September 2026, or very close to a Blue Ocean Event.


The danger that a Blue Ocean Event will occur in September 2026 is further illustrated by the image below, which shows Arctic sea ice volume in the past 25 years. Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. In 2025, Arctic sea ice reached a record low maximum volume, as well as a record low minimum volume.


As illustrated by the above image, adapted from dmi.dk, Arctic sea ice volume was very low in April 2025, so while relatively little melting took place from April 2025 to September 2025, a record low Arctic sea ice volume was still reached in September 2025. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through mid February 2026, with an analysis of the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum) by means of the bars colored magenta (strong melting) and green (little melting). 

If the downward trend in annual maxima (blue circles) continues, Arctic sea ice looks set to reach an even lower maximum volume in April 2026. The difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur later in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event could also be said to occur when only 1000 km³ or less Arctic sea ice volume remains. The image below, adapted from dmi.dk, shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on March 25, 2026. 


The image below, adapted from Zack Labe, shows sea ice thickness near the North Pole from 1979 through February 2026. 



Greenhouse gas concentration

The highest daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration on record, 431.89 parts per million (ppm), was recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on March 24, 2026.


The image below shows one year of daily (green circles), weekly (red lines) and monthly (blue lines) average carbon dioxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. 


Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Proposed amendment to the Constitution

People who see huge environmental dangers have a duty to speak out and politicians have a duty to act. When dangers are confirmed by best-available science, politicians who still fail to act should be immediately replaced and institutionalized until rehabilitated.


Links

• Japanese National Institute of Polar Research
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Extent
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• NOAA - Ocean heat in the Equatorial Pacific region
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature Analysis
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Copernicus
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams

• Zachery Labe - sea ice thickness/volume
https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Levi Cowan - tropicaltidbits










Posted by at
Labels: , , , , ,